Anthony Scaramucci Predicts $150K BTC by Year-End: This Bear Market Will End 'When We Least Expect It'

Summary

Markets Outlook – CoinDesk
Episode: Anthony Scaramucci Predicts $150K BTC by Year-End: This Bear Market Will End 'When We Least Expect It'
Release Date: February 12, 2026

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Overview

This episode features a candid and wide-ranging conversation with Anthony Scaramucci—founder of SkyBridge Capital and SALT—about the state of the crypto markets, the evolution of institutional sentiment, Solana’s resilience post-FTX, the coming wave of crypto regulation, and his predictions for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Mixing macro perspectives with anecdotal insight, Scaramucci offers a unique view into both the internal mentality of institutional players and the likely future of digital asset adoption.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Institutional Summit Recap & Market Sentiment

Timestamps: 00:51–03:09

• Scaramucci highlights the success of CoinDesk and SALT's closed-door institutional summit.
• He notes a cautious, even pessimistic, mood among institutional attendees, emphasizing most leaders at these firms belong to an older demographic that still prefers gold over crypto.
• “...60 year old people are running most of the money at these big institutions... And they left bitcoin and other assets that we would like and perhaps younger demographies like. And I think that's the big issue right now. That's the tension in the marketplace.” – Anthony Scaramucci [02:22]
• Bearish sentiment is taken as a contrary indicator, suggesting the market may be underinvested, hinting at an eventual turnaround.

2. The Bear Market: Timing and Dynamics

Timestamps: 01:52–05:19

• “We're in a bear market. The question is how long is the bear market going to last?...I predict like most bear markets, it will end when we least expect it.” – Anthony Scaramucci [01:52]
• Scaramucci uses technical indicators (RSI, greed/fear indices) to show the market is historically oversold.
• He reassures listeners that bear markets typically last 12-18 months and estimates “we're more than 2/3 the way through.” [05:14]
• “When people are telling me they're bearish, they're typically talking their book and that means they're underinvested.” – Anthony Scaramucci [03:03]

3. Solana’s Post-FTX Evolution & Resilience

Timestamps: 03:09–07:56

• Scaramucci defends Solana even against skepticism from other major investors like Kevin O’Leary, citing its ability to withstand the FTX crisis.
• He discusses buying Solana on the way down, holding firm at ultra-low prices, and lauds the network’s technical strengths.
• “Solana can handle a lot of activity and it's cheap, it's easy to use, developers find it user friendly.” – Anthony Scaramucci [06:33]
• The meme coin phenomenon (notably "Trump coins") paradoxically strengthened Solana’s standing by stress-testing its throughput and speed.
• “If you're a technologist... you're saying, wow, Solana can handle a lot of activity and it's cheap, it's easy to use.” – Anthony Scaramucci [06:37]

4. The Impact of Meme Coins and Broader Political/Economic Landscape

Timestamps: 04:14–07:56

• Scaramucci suggests meme coins drained liquidity from more serious crypto ventures but also showcased the capacity of blockchains like Solana.
• He reminisces about the move in settlement speeds, contrasting old finance (T+5) with today’s rapid blockchain settlement.

5. Crypto Regulation – Progress, Politics, & Predictions

Timestamps: 07:56–13:29

• Scaramucci is optimistic about regulatory progress, predicting that US legislation will likely pass (possibly by Memorial Day), though he stresses it won’t meet crypto idealists’ full wish list.
• “Progress is more important than perfection. In fact, the enemy of progress is perfection.” – Anthony Scaramucci [09:24]
• He highlights the sausage-making nature of US politics and legislative compromise, warning the yield debate will be a sticking point for banks.
• Identifies the drivers: mutual interest among the White House, industry, banks, and Congress to reach a deal, but expects heavy influence from legacy players like the American Banking Association.
• “You’re the taxicab industry and Uber’s coming into town, so you can either fix what’s going wrong… or Uber’s going to eat your lunch.” [10:57]
• Notes political realities may accelerate legislation before the midterms—Republicans favor crypto more than Democrats.

6. Fair Shake PAC, Political Power, and the Midterms

Timestamps: 13:03–14:52

• Scaramucci commends Fair Shake, a crypto-focused political PAC, for its fundraising and electoral impact.
• Points to their role in ousting incumbents like Sherrod Brown, forcing establishment politicians to reconsider opposing crypto interests.
• “We are, unfortunately, we're the David in this game… They represent Goliath.” [13:35]
• Connects Fair Shake’s influence to legislative momentum in Congress: “I said, hey, crypto turned this election. Help Donald Trump become president, help Republicans win the House and Senate.” [14:09]

7. Bitcoin Price Prediction and Market Catalysts

Timestamps: 14:52–16:33

• Scaramucci is pressed for his end-of-year Bitcoin price target.
• “Well, I’m going to stick to the 150 [thousand]. I’m going to stick to that.” – Anthony Scaramucci [16:03]
• He believes the passage of legislation could unlock massive institutional flows: “Once that legislation does pass, it's going to open a floodgate of activity in the money center banks in the United States. And remember, that's the real circulatory system for global capitalism.” [16:13]
• Acknowledges past prediction missteps and market unpredictability.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Institutional Reluctance:
  “60 year old people are running most of the money at these big institutions...And they left bitcoin...And I think that's the big issue right now.” – Anthony Scaramucci [02:22]
• On Timing the Market:
  “I predict like most bear markets, it will end when we least expect it.” – Anthony Scaramucci [01:56]
• On Solana’s Strengths:
  “Solana can handle a lot of activity and it's cheap, it's easy to use, developers find it user friendly.” – Anthony Scaramucci [06:33]
• On Regulatory Compromise:
  “Progress is more important than perfection. In fact, the enemy of progress is perfection.” – Anthony Scaramucci [09:24]
• On Crypto vs. Traditional Finance:
  “You’re the taxicab industry and Uber’s coming into town, so you can either fix what’s going wrong in the taxi cab industry or Uber’s going to eat your lunch.” – Anthony Scaramucci [10:57]
• On Bitcoin’s Price Outlook:
  “I'm going to stick to the 150 [thousand]. Yeah. But I think this thing will grind higher. And I think once that legislation does pass, it's going to open a floodgate of activity...” – Anthony Scaramucci [16:03]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:51–01:29 — Institutional Summit & Industry Collaboration
• 01:52–03:09 — Bear Market Outlook and Demographic Analysis
• 04:14–07:56 — Solana’s Evolution, Meme Coin Impact, and Technology
• 07:56–10:20 — Regulatory Landscape & Congressional Dynamics
• 13:29–14:52 — Fair Shake PAC and Political Influence
• 14:52–16:33 — Price Predictions and Future Catalysts

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a comprehensive look at the challenges and opportunities facing the crypto markets in 2026, blending market analysis and political strategy with Anthony Scaramucci’s trademark wit and candor. His outlook remains bullish—particularly for Bitcoin, which he sees surging beyond $150,000 as regulation brings floodgates of institutional investment—though he remains realistic about the messy compromises necessary for regulatory progress. The discussion offers valuable perspective for crypto enthusiasts and market-watchers as the next major chapter in the industry unfolds.

Transcript

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Foreign.

[Jen]

From the halls of Goldman Sachs to the White House and now to the front lines of crypto, he's one of the most candid voices in the industry. Joining us now is the founder of SkyBridge Capital, a global alternative asset firm, and the founder of. Chairman and. Sorry, the founder and chairman of salt, which partnered with Consensys for our institutional summit this year. Anthony Scaramucci. Welcome back to the show.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Are you starting out nice? You're being very nice to me, Jen.

[Jen]

I am always nice to you, which you are.

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

You are not nice to you. At one point.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

No. Once in a while during the FTX thing, we were going. We were going at it a little bit.

[Jen]

I know, but I feel like we've repaired our relationship.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I didn't mind it. I didn't mind it. I had a face to music. It was okay.

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

That journalism cap on, Jen, we love that.

[Jen]

I know you gotta do that sometimes.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

We're still here.

[Jen]

I just mentioned that Consensus partnered with SALT for the institutional summit yesterday. It was closed doors so we didn't get to see what went on there. You give us a little bit of a.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

You guys do an amazing job. So congratulations. Congratulations to Tom Farley, the whole team. We hosted alongside of you guys yesterday at the Grand Hyatt A, you know, it was like a institutional asset allocator. Family offices, we had some of the DATs there. We had a lot of big hedge fund managers there. I thought it was a great, great event. I'd love to do it again. And we're going to Miami next, right? So maybe we'll be able to do something in Miami.

[Jen]

Miami next?

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

Yeah, Miami in May, big time. Got a way bigger convention center there too as well. So I'm really excited for the North American version of Consensus. In terms of people in the room, what was the sentiment? Because we had Omkar and Aon talking a second ago about how institutions are not focused on the markets right now. Markets, you know, not great, but they're really focused on the infrastructure part of this. Did you see that?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah, I listen. I mean the market, we're in a bear market. The question is how long is the bear market going to last? And you're always going to have that group of naysayers where it's over, you know, and they'll be chanting that to people. But I think we are learning about the demography of crypto because if you have a currency debasement going on, you would expect a bitcoin to do much better. But it turns out that 60 year old people and I'm over 60. But 60 year old people have a tendency to buy gold and silver and guess what? 60 year old people are running most of the money at these big institutions around the world and the sovereign wealth funds and things like that. And so they left bitcoin and other assets that we would like and perhaps younger demographies like. And I think that's the big issue right now. That's the tension in the marketplace. And I predict like most bear markets, it will end when we least expect it. But the RSI is, you know, below 30. The greed index on a 0 to 100 is at a 5 in terms of where it is as it relates to fear. And there were a lot of bearish people in that room yesterday. So I take that as a good sign. Having lived through nine bear markets. When people are telling me they're bearish, they're typically talking their book and that means that they're underinvested.

[Jen]

I was just talking about an interview I did recently with Kevin O'. Leary. He said he sold 27 of his crypto positions, he's only holding bitcoin and eat. Solana came up. I said that you're very bullish on Solana. I know the two of your friends. He said, you know what he thinks about that. Can you give me a response?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Well, I mean I don't want to speak for Kevin, but I do love Kevin and Kevin and I go back a long ways, but I think that's related to the Sam Bankman fried stuff. So I think Kevin felt badly burned by owned a tremendous amount of Solana. And you know, I see it differently. Maybe I'm too short to see the glass. Anything other than half full. Like when I'm looking at the glass, it looks full to me. And I look at Solana as a, an engine that powered through the FTX crisis. I think he felt burnt by the whole situation. So it's sort of a hot stove he doesn't want to touch twice.

[Jen]

Well, so Solana has had an incredible evolution since the FTX debacle. I think it was trading at $8 at one point. It has really changed the narrative. It has proved that it could stay, it could build.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

We bought it at 22 on it was down from like 200 and change. We bought it at 22 and it didn't stop, it kept falling and we ended up with it at 8. We looked at each other and said, all right, we're going to ride this thing to zero. I didn't think it was going to zero. And if you went to Solana Accelerate, you can see why it's not going to zero. And so we held on and I think they've generally done a good job. Is it down from, from its high? But remember, you know, the industry got impaired by the Trump coins. You know, people don't like talking about it because they're nervous about the administration. But the truth be told, the Trump coin sucked a lot of liquidity out of that space. And if you really look at the bear market, in my mind, the bear market really started last January. It didn't really impact bitcoin until October. But go take a look at the coins that are not bitcoin or as you guys say, the all coins, they haven't done well since last January. So to me that's a positive because bear markets typically last about 12 to 18 months. So we're, we're more than 2/3 the way through the bear market. Oh, I like that.

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

Two thirds of the way through. I love that. We're right there.

[Jen]

Right there.

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

Sunrise is almost only good things ahead.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Listen, like the Buddha says, things change, right? It looks miserable right now, but it's going to change.

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

So for Solana, a lot of the meme coins were created on top of Solana ecosystem. When you're talking to institutions, does that grok with them? Are they thinking about a lot of the meme cycles that can be pretty destructive come from that?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Again, there's, there's different types of people at that level, right? The ctos look at it and say, well, weirdly, the meme coins have fortified the case to use Solana for real world assets. Because just take a look at the Trump coin activity prior to the inauguration and look at the volume that Solana was handling and look at the transaction speeds on Solana during that big throughput coming through the pipe of Solana. And so weirdly, you would say, well, the meme coin should probably hurt this because meme coins are garbage, et cetera. But if you're a technologist and you're looking at Solana, you're saying, wow, Solana can handle a lot of activity and it's cheap, it's easy to use, developers find it user friendly and I'll channel some, as I've channeled Kevin o', Leary, I'll channel some Anatoly here as well. Solana is built without a lot of innovation. He took the best parts of what he understood about computer programming, cryptographic graphic blockchain and put it in Solana. And so what was he searching for? Speed Durability very fast finality and something that a developer could look at and say, this is easy for me to use. And so for all those things, I think Solana has met those tests. And Solana, to me not being Bitcoin is an anti fragile layer, one that I think is going to get adopted. I'm not saying it's going to be the only thing that gets adopted, but guys like Larry Fink don't go by me, go by Tom Farley, the president, former president of New York Stock Exchange. That world is changing. And just to really date myself, I was T +5 when I was your age. So if you were with me at Goldman Sachs in 1989 and you bought a security, it went through seven different agencies before it got to your account, including the Depository Trust Corporation and it took five days. So you got the trade here, but you didn't see it in your account for a week. Today we're T&1. And you guys know on Solana we could be an hour, we could probably be less than that. But of course you're going to have some regulatory oversight that's going to slow things down.

[Jen]

You mentioned that the Trump meme coins didn't really do much for the industry. But I want to talk about regulation. I was at the Ondo Summit recently. Patrick Witt said he's very optimistic that legislation is going to pass in the United States. Patrick McKenney was there. He said maybe by Memorial Day. Do you think that that is possible given the back and forth that's been going on when it comes to ethics?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

So I do think it's possible because I think that when you, when you look at Washington, right, Washington is very different from crypto is very different. Wall street and I've got my 11 day PhD so I can tell you how it works. What ends up happening there is this varied interests and so you have to measure everybody's interest. You know, on Wall street we all like money, Crypto, we all like money. So we know the interest, right? We're all on the green team. But in Washington there's blue, red, purple teams, there's all different types of stuff. And if you sit down and you just look at everybody's interest, the White House, the industry, the banking community, the Democrats, the Republicans in the House and Senate, they all have a mutuality of interest to get it passed. Now the bad news for the industry, it's not going to be what we want, okay? Generally we're libertarians and we want to be left alone. And Washington doesn't know how to do that. And the American Banking association has a lot of draw a lot of swag with the Congress. And so they're going to push back on some of the competition that the crypto industry wants to give them. And that's Washington. That's the way it works. That's why they say you don't want to see the sausage being made in Washington, you just want the final product. Right. It's a nasty process. And so I'll predict that the legislation gets done, it will not be as good as we would like it to be. But I would tell you that progress is more important than perfection. In fact, the enemy of progress is perfection. And I'll just give this quick example, and I did mention it to Tom this morning from the stage, when Gary Gensler was forced, literally by a judge to approve the cash or spot Bitcoin etf. He didn't want you to be able to put bitcoin into it. And so everyone was complaining about it, but we got it done. And now with Paul Atkins, we've been able to make that change. So that's what we have to hope for with these pieces of legislation that are coming forward. And I think they will pass.

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

Treasury Secretary Bessant talked about this same issue in front of Congress the other day, and he talked about how he made a kind of sly reference to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and how he's silent behind the scenes, not agreeing with the regulation as it stands. Do you have a message for Brian Armstrong or for anyone else who doesn't seem to think that doesn't seem to agree with you, that wants perfection beforehand?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I know. First of all, Brian Romshaw doesn't need any messages for me. I think Brian Armstrong is doing pretty well. And I like Brian and him and I go to a lot of events together. I admire Brian, I admire his position on this. And the truth of the matter is, if you look at the reward system that's in place at Coinbase, they would be. He could relent on this and they would just be fine economically in terms of the way the reward system is going to potentially work in this legislation. So I think it's a tribute to Brian that he's a pretty principled guy and he's anchored towards this idea. Now, if I were talking to the banks and I was going to give them advice, yeah, I would say, hey, guys, it's going to happen whether you like it or not, okay? You're the taxicab industry and Uber's coming into town, so you can either Fix what's going wrong in the taxi cab industry or Uber's going to eat your lunch. Okay, so it's. For me, it's more advice to the banking executives than to Brian. Totally. But I think. I think you're making the point, Brian. Relax. Get the deal done and let's move forward. And I think we're generally going to go in that direction. Likely before Memorial Day. Likely before Memorial Day.

[Jen]

You said that you think legislation will pass. It might not be the legislation that we want. Does that mean you think that. Certainly certain elements are going to be left out.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah. I don't know which ones, but I think the yield thing is going to be a big deal for these banks. They're going to push back very hard. And lobbying works in the Congress. Remember, it's all about the money guys. Okay? These guys want to get reelected. And so they end because of Citizens United. They get an unlimited stream of money from large corporations, and they generally do with the large corporations or the large industries. Big banks, big pharma, big food want. Now that's a whole other topic. And we're in sore need of structural reform at the, you know, in the legislative system because of this. But that's what's going to happen. And by the way, we need to accept that and we need to deal with the world the way it is, not the world that we want it to be. We just have to deal with that and see if we can get the best deal possible. I wouldn't wait till after the midterms because the Republicans like crypto more than the Democrats. And if the Democrats take the House, I think it'll be even slower and a longer and heavier lift.

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

Just staying within the politics and the midterms. I'm curious your thoughts on Fair Shake. They've raised a lot of money. There's a lot of posters on Twitter saying, hey, can't come after us with crypto. We're down because of the Trump meme. Coins might be down because of some of the price action, but Fair Shake has raised more than anybody else for the package going into midterms, a position of strength with that cash. Do you think it's going to hold up going to midterms, or do you think I do.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

But don't underestimate the American Banking Association. They've raised a lot of money from the money center banks as well. You know, we are, unfortunately, we're the David in this game, okay? They represent Goliath. So I think Fairshake has done a really good job. I think The Sherrod Brown race where they took an 18 year veteran who was the head of the Senate Banking Committee, knocked him right out of that seat. And guys, it is very hard to dislodge an incumbent. You know, they generally have a 95% re election rate because they get all the money behind them and they have an installed base and they're able to curry favor with the electorate using the system of the government to get themselves reelected. So you have to really applaud Fair Shake what they did. And if you ask me, and I did say this In November of 2014, I said, hey, crypto turned this election. Help Donald Trump become president, help the Republicans win the House and the Senate. And this is one of the reasons why I think this bill's passing. Yeah, because if you talk to Gillibrand, you talk to Schumer, Richie Torres, these are people in my state, they're like, I don't want to go up against Fair Shake in the, in the midterm elections. We're better off passing a deal and then turn to the Fair Shake and say, hey, I supported you guys. Lay off me. Yeah, right. And I think that's the message. And again, when I look at the varying interests, Fair Shake is a part of it and they need to be applauded for the work that they've done.

[Jen]

All right, Anthony, we gotta wrap up in just a second. But you know, I love a prediction. And you said we're coming up to the end of a prediction market. I don't like prediction markets, but I love a price prediction.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I'm so wrong. You see what happens?

[Jen]

I love a price prediction.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

On Twitter. I get all these comments. So, you know, I get the predictions wrong. I got, I got my last prediction. Really wrong. I got it.

[Jen]

What was your last one?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

No, I thought bitcoin was easily got to 150,000 if you had laid out a lot of macro case. Yeah, you had laid out everything. I, I miss size, the amount of whale selling. And I also, you know, even though I was worried that the Trump meme coins would slow down the regulation, which they did, I still thought they were going to get done in 25. And I got that wrong. And that hurt the market. And by the way, you know, listen, guys, you're not dummies. You know, certain things go on, big trades happen and then announcements come out and move markets.

[Co-host or Guest (possibly a crypto industry expert)]

Yes.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

And so don't kid yourself. A lot of people in Washington knew that this bill wasn't getting passed and some of that capitulation took place ahead of the rest of us figuring that out.

[Jen]

Yeah. All right, Anthony, end of 2026.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah.

[Jen]

What's the price of bitcoin?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Well, I'm going to. I'm going to stick to the 150. I'm going to stick to that. Yeah. But I think this thing will grind higher. And I think once that legislation does pass, it's going to open a floodgate of activity in the money center banks in the United States. And remember, that's the real circulatory system for global capitalism. And so this is a small asset class relative to the other asset classes that it should be compared to.

[Jen]

Anthony, it's always a pleasure having you on the show. Thank you so much for joining us.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

So easy on me.