Arthur Hayes: 'Hyperliquid is Facing its Gentrification Moment'

Summary

Markets Outlook – Arthur Hayes: 'Hyperliquid is Facing its Gentrification Moment'

Podcast: Markets Outlook (CoinDesk)
Date: September 23, 2025
Guest: Arthur Hayes (Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, Co-Founder of BitMEX)
Location: Korea Blockchain Week

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Episode Overview

In this dynamic episode, CoinDesk hosts Arthur Hayes at Korea Blockchain Week for an in-depth conversation on the Asian crypto trading scene, the state of U.S. crypto policy, market predictions, and detailed insight into the Hyperliquid narrative. Hayes, known for his frank and colorful take, brings sharp commentary on trading culture, fund management, and the current evolution of digital asset treasuries.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Asia—Korea’s Dynamic Crypto Trading Culture

[00:12–02:48]

• Asia’s Role in Crypto Trading: Hayes highlights Asia, and especially South Korea, as the "most active crypto trading market in the world by any country, even per capita."

  “It has been that way for a very long time, which is why I've been coming to Korea for crypto since 2014.” (Arthur Hayes, 00:28)

• Korean Retail Trading Dynamics:

  • Korea is described as a dynamic, highly educated market with limited opportunity due to societal structures (control of top jobs by conglomerate families).
  • Crypto, along with online gaming, is seen as an “escape” for many ambitious young Koreans dissatisfied with the “depressing, crushing rat race.”

  “You have this population that wants to escape this, you know, depressing, crushing rat race that is like Korean society... so crypto and the Internet have been one of those things.” (Arthur Hayes, 01:20)

• Historical Context: Hayes compares the current appeal of crypto to past trends in derivatives trading, noting the remarkable retail participation (down to scheduling market holidays around university exam periods).

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2. U.S. Political Landscape & Crypto Market Drivers

[02:48–04:10]

• Crypto and U.S. Policy Shifts: Hayes predicts a Trump victory and sees TradFi’s need to profit from the next “bitcoin crypto boom” as fueling pro-crypto momentum.

  “They want to make sure that people are paying their taxes, they're buying their real estate, ...the investment bankers are making 5% doing dat deals. The lawyers are charging $2,000 an hour ... everybody's making money in crypto because it’s this bull market...” (Arthur Hayes, 03:03)

• Price Predictions: Hayes reaffirms a bold target:

  “I still believe that Bitcoin could be 250,000 by the end of the year. ...My North Star is 2028... Bitcoin could be in the million dollar plus range because of all the money that they printed between now and the end of their term.” (Arthur Hayes, 03:46)

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3. Hyperliquid’s “Gentrification Moment” & Competitive Pressure

[04:14–06:54]

• Hyperliquid (HYPE) Deconstructed: Hayes and Maelstrom exited their position in HYPE due to looming token unlocks and competitive threats.

  • The rapid emergence of new competitors (Lighter, Astro) offering “zero fee trading” threatens HYPE’s profitability and ability to defend its token value via buybacks.

• On Immediate Sell Pressure:

  • Large, scheduled token unlocks create significant sell pressure.
  • If HYPE cannot sufficiently buy back tokens (funded by protocol revenues), the price could be vulnerable.

• The Fund Manager’s Decision Process:

  “As a chief investment officer of a hedge fund, I make, I go long, I go short, even though I might have a conviction on a long term state of play. ...Short term we have an issue where Hyper Liquid is facing its chinesification moment...” (Arthur Hayes, 04:33) “If hype goes from 50 to 100 and I’m wrong, great...If hype goes from 50 to 25...now I get to buy back at 25 and I get some extra use in my returns.” (Arthur Hayes, 06:38)

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4. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Opportunity & Risk

[06:54–09:00]

• Complexity of Trading DATs:

  • Hayes describes DATs such as UPXI as “very tough market[s],” since public unlock schedules create volatility and momentum-based trading dominates.
  • Fund managers must be wary—assets can quickly lose value “while I’m asleep in New York, overnight this shit can be down 75%...”

• Trading Strategy:

  • The Maelstrom approach is generally conservative, preferring limited exposure.

  “It takes a different type of mentality and a different type of frequency trader that's not me or any other traders or fund managers at Maelstrom.” (Arthur Hayes, 08:29)

• On Hot Potato Dynamics:

  “There’s a structural reason why they exist. There’ll be, you know, a few winners, a few microstrategy in each different token category. I hope UPXI is one of them. But at the end of the day...they’re very difficult to trade.” (Arthur Hayes, 08:13)

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5. Memorable Moment: Hayes on Life Balance

[09:00–09:21]

• When asked if he'd skip his annual February ski trip in Japan to attend Consensus, Hayes responds without hesitation:

  “Highly unlikely.” (Arthur Hayes, 09:13)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Korean Trading Culture:
  “All the best jobs are controlled by...these chapels, the Samsungs, Hyundai’s ...so you have this population that wants to escape this... rat race.” (Arthur Hayes, 01:09)

• On U.S. Policy & Bitcoin:
  "My North Star is 2028... bitcoin could be in the million dollar plus range because of all the money that they printed between now and the end of their term." (Arthur Hayes, 03:46)

• On Exiting Hyperliquid:
  “As a fund manager in terms of the probabilistic outcome and what's my best expected value decision. And that's why we sold.” (Arthur Hayes, 06:54)

• On DAT Trading:
  “It’s a hot potato...overnight this shit can be down 75%...so I don’t like trading these things.” (Arthur Hayes, 07:50)

• On Lifestyle Choices:
  “Highly unlikely.” – about giving up skiing for Consensus (Arthur Hayes, 09:13)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:12–02:48: Korean crypto culture, retail market motivations
• 02:48–04:10: U.S. policy, Bitcoin price predictions
• 04:14–06:54: Hyperliquid challenges, token unlocks, fund management
• 06:54–09:00: Digital asset treasuries, risk management perspectives
• 09:00–09:21: Memorable closing banter on lifestyle vs. conferences

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Conclusion

This episode offers an unfiltered look at crypto market dynamics through the lens of one of its most colorful fund managers. Hayes explores why Asian markets—and especially Korea—are retail trading powerhouses, breaks down his expectations for U.S. crypto policy, and gives a candid account of the fund management calculus around tokens like Hyperliquid. His sharp wit and rationale-based decision-making offer rare clarity on high-stakes crypto moves and investor psychology.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign investment officer Maelstrom and the co founder of Bitmex, Arthur Hayes joins us. Hello.

[B]

Hi.

[A]

Nice to see you. Irl.

[B]

Yeah, yeah.

[A]

All right. We got to talk about this excitement. You just brought a lot of energy to the desk. We're here at Korea Blockchain Week. I mean, talk to us about what you hope the audience who's watching this learns about Asia and crypto.

[B]

I mean, this is the most active crypto trading market in the world by any country, even per capita. Right. It's crazy. So. And it has been that way for a very long time, which is why I've been coming to Korea for crypto since 2014. So I love this place. I love Seoul. I live in the region. I've been here many, many times.

[A]

We've talked a little bit about it. But I would love to hear from your perspective. You've been coming to Korea since 2014. Talk to us about the trading culture here, the retail trading culture here. What is it that makes it such a dynamic market for crypto trading?

[B]

So one, number one thing, it's a very highly educated market. Number two, which is actually not the best statistic, is that they're over educated in terms of there's not as much opportunity for all these very intelligent people. It's extremely expensive to live in Seoul and be successful. And all the best jobs are controlled by, you know, four, five, six, seven families who run these chapels, the Samsungs, Hyundai's the of the world, lg. And so you have this population that wants to escape this, you know, depressing, crushing rat race that is like Korean society and this mega Monopoly megapolis. And so crypto and the Internet have been one of those things, whether it's been gaming and now it's stop treating right. So you know, I used to come from Drive Fry and back in the day, Cosby options were the most liquid market in the world. City of 20 million people, trades more options than anyone else in the world until the regulators essentially just banned it because, you know, they had this, they have days off on the market when Korean university students have exams. That's how much of the retail is into trading to sort of get a leg up in their life because it's just so hard to succeed in this society we where there's not that much opportunity given all these very, very smart educated people. And so when crypto comes along where it's a flat ecosystem, anyone can build anything. And if you're smart and ambitious, you, you know, you can become a do kwon. Obviously he's probably not the best person to say that or Sy from story. Right. Of these leading figures in crypto have done so well and there's so much activity. And if people believe that they study more, if they're smarter, they can crack the code of the markets. And in this 24,7 market, they can trade their way out of being in a basement, like in parasite. Right.

[C]

So are there. I want to switch gears a little bit. I know you just got off stage. I believe you were predicting Trump was going to take control of the Fed in the first half of 2026. I'm just interested in your take right now of what's happening in, on the US Side of crypto.

[B]

I mean, at the end of the day, it's about making sure that the right people in tradfi make enough money on this bitcoin crypto boom, this bubble that they're going to blow by, you know, pumping up the credit, Right? So they want to make sure that people are paying their taxes, they're buying their real estate, they're going to the club, they're going to the restaurants. You know, the investment bankers are making 5% doing dat deals. The lawyers are charging $2,000 an hour to make opinions like everybody's making money in crypto because it's this bull market and it's going to help sort of revitalize the government finances. So that, I think, is the why Trump wants crypto to do well.

[A]

And so what does that mean? I mean, what are you predicting? First half of 2026 that happens. Where does bitcoin go?

[B]

I mean, I, my, I still believe that Bitcoin could be 250,000 by the end of the year. And my North Star is 2028. End of 2028, when Trump and his cronies leave office, that, you know, in their wake, bitcoin could be in the million dollar plus range because of all the money that they printed between now and the end of their term.

[A]

We're at the end of September, the end of the year is coming really soon, and we're not close to 250,000. What has that happened?

[B]

Come on.

[C]

Arthur, I couldn't help but ask you about yesterday's conversation on Twitter about hype. Yeah, Hyperliquid. You and Maelstrom got out of, out of your position. You talked about all of these token unlocks being really deflationary on the opportunities for, I guess, retail. Can you just, like, break down your thesis about this?

[B]

So, number one, I got on stage in Tokyo and I wrote a very, I think, very Good essay about stable coins and how hype has a potential to go 120x26x. Now the key point here is by 2028 we are in 2025 right now and a lot of things can happen between now and then. And as a chief investment officer of a hedge fund, I make, I go long, I go short, even though I might have a conviction on a long term state of play. And so right now in the short term we have an issue where Hyper Liquid is facing its chinesification moment where they're going to have competitors who've seen a successful business model and they're going to say, okay, great, now I'm going to take it, take your price down to zero and see how you survive. Right? And so we have lighter zero fee trading in some sort of air up. We have Aster maybe or maybe not. It's backed by cz, I have no idea. And they're doing low or no fee trading. And so when you have Hyper Liquidity, I think they charge like something three and a half or four basis points, whatever it is, and they have this massive potential cell pressure coming starting in November. We don't know how many of the developers are going to sell, if at all. But if I'm going to think about the model, I'm going to say, well, okay, do I believe that Hype has the moat in terms of revenues to make enough money so they buy back enough Hype tokens where this doesn't matter. And before, you know, this weekend when I pull up the Defi llama leaderboard and I saw that LiDAR was number two and Astro number three, you know, both doing, you know, two, three, four billion dollar ADV days and hype was only about 4.5 billion. I'm like, okay, well this isn't good. I didn't have to make money. Hype makes money, then they buy hype and then I don't care about the unlock. But if there are these people, they're going to say I'm going to go and pull the we care, we only care. We'll make it up in volume in the back end. I'm going to go Z0 fee trading, see if I can get all your users Vampire squid attack. You do an airdrop so that people can do another 1020 x on their airdrop that I'm worried that Hype might not have enough money to buy back enough tokens to offset this potential negative drag on the very publicly known unlock schedule. And I said, okay, cool, I'm going to exit if hype goes from 50 to 100 and I'm wrong, great. I think, still think it's going to 5,000 in two years if hype goes from 50 to 25. And I'm like, great, now I get to buy back at 25 and I get some extra use in my returns. And so that's why I'm thinking as a fund manager in terms of the probabilistic outcome and what's my best expected value decision. And that's why we sold.

[A]

When you're thinking as a fund manager and, and I, I want to just get your perspective, perspective on digital asset treasuries. I mean there are digital asset treasuries being built around hype, but around so many other tokens. When you're thinking as a fund manager, how much is this digital asset narrative coming into your evaluations of assets?

[B]

I obviously am an advisor of Upxi. We have done a maelstrom. I've done a few, a few pipes. We've also traded a few in the secondary market and it's a very tough market because obviously if you buy into the pipe, you take you about three months to get your shares. It's very public when the unlock happens and you know, the stock might pump, you know, whatever it does, it's, that's going to come back down to reality because everyone recognizes that the pipe investors are going to sell their shares, which we did as soon as we got them. And, and so it's a momentum based strategy that's very beta to crypto. So but as a fund manager, like, okay, if I believe that bitcoin and ETH are going up, the market's going up. What's the fastest horse I can ride and I can get off the easiest? Like these dad deals. Yes, they can pump real quick. But for whatever reason, if the sentiment changes while I'm asleep in New York, overnight this shit can be down 75% like NACA, some of these other, other deals and all of a sudden all this money that I saw on paper is evaporated while I'm sleeping. So I don't like trading these things because that's just not the type of thing that I want to trade. There's, it's a hot potato. There's a structural reason why they exist. There'll be, you know, a few winners, a few microstrategy in each different token category. I hope you PXI is one of them. But at the end of the day, from a trading perspective, they're very difficult to trade. It takes a different type of mentality and a different type of frequency trader that's not me or any other traders or fund managers at Maelstrom. And so we tend not to get too involved in putting a lot of money in these DAT deals on the secondary market. We've done a few pipes. We make 10, 20% on our money in a few months. Okay, that's, that's, that's fair. But again, I would, I'm not really enthusiastic because of the way our fund is set up and to trade these things.

[A]

All right, we got to wrap it there, Arthur, but I got to end at this. A little birdie told me that you like to spend your February's on the ski hills in Japan. But that's also when consensus is. So wondering if you might give up skiing for consensus next year.

[B]

Highly unlikely.

[A]

Okay, well, I had to try. I had to try.

[C]

We're going to keep asking.

[A]

Arthur, thank you so much for joining us. It was a pleasure.

[B]

Thanks for having me.