Markets Outlook – Arthur Hayes: 'Hyperliquid is Facing its Gentrification Moment'

Podcast: Markets Outlook (CoinDesk)
Date: September 23, 2025
Guest: Arthur Hayes (Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, Co-Founder of BitMEX)
Location: Korea Blockchain Week

Episode Overview

In this dynamic episode, CoinDesk hosts Arthur Hayes at Korea Blockchain Week for an in-depth conversation on the Asian crypto trading scene, the state of U.S. crypto policy, market predictions, and detailed insight into the Hyperliquid narrative. Hayes, known for his frank and colorful take, brings sharp commentary on trading culture, fund management, and the current evolution of digital asset treasuries.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Asia—Korea’s Dynamic Crypto Trading Culture

[00:12–02:48]

• Asia’s Role in Crypto Trading: Hayes highlights Asia, and especially South Korea, as the "most active crypto trading market in the world by any country, even per capita."

  “It has been that way for a very long time, which is why I've been coming to Korea for crypto since 2014.” (Arthur Hayes, 00:28)

• Korean Retail Trading Dynamics:

  • Korea is described as a dynamic, highly educated market with limited opportunity due to societal structures (control of top jobs by conglomerate families).
  • Crypto, along with online gaming, is seen as an “escape” for many ambitious young Koreans dissatisfied with the “depressing, crushing rat race.”

  “You have this population that wants to escape this, you know, depressing, crushing rat race that is like Korean society... so crypto and the Internet have been one of those things.” (Arthur Hayes, 01:20)

• Historical Context: Hayes compares the current appeal of crypto to past trends in derivatives trading, noting the remarkable retail participation (down to scheduling market holidays around university exam periods).

2. U.S. Political Landscape & Crypto Market Drivers

[02:48–04:10]

• Crypto and U.S. Policy Shifts: Hayes predicts a Trump victory and sees TradFi’s need to profit from the next “bitcoin crypto boom” as fueling pro-crypto momentum.

  “They want to make sure that people are paying their taxes, they're buying their real estate, ...the investment bankers are making 5% doing dat deals. The lawyers are charging $2,000 an hour ... everybody's making money in crypto because it’s this bull market...” (Arthur Hayes, 03:03)

• Price Predictions: Hayes reaffirms a bold target:

  “I still believe that Bitcoin could be 250,000 by the end of the year. ...My North Star is 2028... Bitcoin could be in the million dollar plus range because of all the money that they printed between now and the end of their term.” (Arthur Hayes, 03:46)

3. Hyperliquid’s “Gentrification Moment” & Competitive Pressure

[04:14–06:54]

• Hyperliquid (HYPE) Deconstructed: Hayes and Maelstrom exited their position in HYPE due to looming token unlocks and competitive threats.

  • The rapid emergence of new competitors (Lighter, Astro) offering “zero fee trading” threatens HYPE’s profitability and ability to defend its token value via buybacks.

• On Immediate Sell Pressure:

  • Large, scheduled token unlocks create significant sell pressure.
  • If HYPE cannot sufficiently buy back tokens (funded by protocol revenues), the price could be vulnerable.

• The Fund Manager’s Decision Process:

  “As a chief investment officer of a hedge fund, I make, I go long, I go short, even though I might have a conviction on a long term state of play. ...Short term we have an issue where Hyper Liquid is facing its chinesification moment...” (Arthur Hayes, 04:33) “If hype goes from 50 to 100 and I’m wrong, great...If hype goes from 50 to 25...now I get to buy back at 25 and I get some extra use in my returns.” (Arthur Hayes, 06:38)

4. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Opportunity & Risk

[06:54–09:00]

• Complexity of Trading DATs:

  • Hayes describes DATs such as UPXI as “very tough market[s],” since public unlock schedules create volatility and momentum-based trading dominates.
  • Fund managers must be wary—assets can quickly lose value “while I’m asleep in New York, overnight this shit can be down 75%...”

• Trading Strategy:

  • The Maelstrom approach is generally conservative, preferring limited exposure.

  “It takes a different type of mentality and a different type of frequency trader that's not me or any other traders or fund managers at Maelstrom.” (Arthur Hayes, 08:29)

• On Hot Potato Dynamics:

  “There’s a structural reason why they exist. There’ll be, you know, a few winners, a few microstrategy in each different token category. I hope UPXI is one of them. But at the end of the day...they’re very difficult to trade.” (Arthur Hayes, 08:13)

5. Memorable Moment: Hayes on Life Balance

[09:00–09:21]

• When asked if he'd skip his annual February ski trip in Japan to attend Consensus, Hayes responds without hesitation:

  “Highly unlikely.” (Arthur Hayes, 09:13)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Korean Trading Culture:
  “All the best jobs are controlled by...these chapels, the Samsungs, Hyundai’s ...so you have this population that wants to escape this... rat race.” (Arthur Hayes, 01:09)

• On U.S. Policy & Bitcoin:
  "My North Star is 2028... bitcoin could be in the million dollar plus range because of all the money that they printed between now and the end of their term." (Arthur Hayes, 03:46)

• On Exiting Hyperliquid:
  “As a fund manager in terms of the probabilistic outcome and what's my best expected value decision. And that's why we sold.” (Arthur Hayes, 06:54)

• On DAT Trading:
  “It’s a hot potato...overnight this shit can be down 75%...so I don’t like trading these things.” (Arthur Hayes, 07:50)

• On Lifestyle Choices:
  “Highly unlikely.” – about giving up skiing for Consensus (Arthur Hayes, 09:13)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:12–02:48: Korean crypto culture, retail market motivations
• 02:48–04:10: U.S. policy, Bitcoin price predictions
• 04:14–06:54: Hyperliquid challenges, token unlocks, fund management
• 06:54–09:00: Digital asset treasuries, risk management perspectives
• 09:00–09:21: Memorable closing banter on lifestyle vs. conferences

Conclusion

This episode offers an unfiltered look at crypto market dynamics through the lens of one of its most colorful fund managers. Hayes explores why Asian markets—and especially Korea—are retail trading powerhouses, breaks down his expectations for U.S. crypto policy, and gives a candid account of the fund management calculus around tokens like Hyperliquid. His sharp wit and rationale-based decision-making offer rare clarity on high-stakes crypto moves and investor psychology.