Markets Daily Crypto Roundup: Crypto Update | Could Bitcoin Hit $1M by the End of 2025?

Release Date: January 21, 2025
Host: Jen Senassi
Guest: James Van Stratten, Senior Analyst at CoinDesk

Introduction

In the latest episode of Markets Daily Crypto Roundup, hosted by Jen Senassi, CoinDesk delves into the dynamic movements within the cryptocurrency markets, offering listeners insightful analysis and projections. The episode titled "Crypto Update | Could Bitcoin Hit $1M by the End of 2025?" features a deep conversation with James Van Stratten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk, who provides his expert perspective on Bitcoin's current trajectory, institutional involvement, the potential for reaching unprecedented price highs, and the evolving landscape of other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

The discussion begins with a focus on Bitcoin's recent performance. James Van Stratten highlights the bullish trend despite some volatility:

[00:00] James Van Stratten: "I don't know about a million, because I don't really think that's in the realms of possibility. But never say never. But I think 100, 180 at the end of Q1 and that price for the end of the year is really possible."

Van Stratten elaborates on Bitcoin's resilience, noting that after hitting an all-time high, it experienced a minor correction but continues to exhibit strong bullish sentiment. He emphasizes that the recent price stability is not driven by retail investors but by larger institutional players, indicating a more robust and sustainable market demand.

[02:32] Jen Senassi: "Makes sense of that for me. So it's not retail that's contributing to this price action that we're seeing, that means that there's more institutions. What does that tell you about how bitcoin performs over the rest of the year?"

[02:45] James Van Stratten: "Well, for me it's extremely bullish... Bitcoin's kind of shrugged it all off as it would in a bull market. So it's up about 10% this year. So it seems really, really strong. And I expect it to carry on into Q1 of this year."

Cycle Comparison and Potential Price Targets

Van Stratten delves into the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by the end of 2025 by drawing parallels to the 2017 bullish cycle. He provides a nuanced analysis, comparing current trends with those observed during Bitcoin's historic bull run.

[03:58] James Van Stratten: "... Bitcoin's up around 550%. If you take from the bottom in the 2017 cycle, which was January 2015... we are very, very similar to that cycle. And if we were to carry this cycle... we are on a trend we're on."

While expressing skepticism about the $1 million mark, Van Stratten remains optimistic about significant price increases, projecting Bitcoin could reach approximately $180,000 by the end of the first quarter and maintain a strong upward trajectory towards year's end.

[06:21] James Van Stratten: "I don't know about a million because I don't really think that's in the realms of possibility... I think 180 at the end of Q1 and that price for the end of the year is really possible."

He attributes this bullish outlook to potential policy changes, such as the repeal of SAB121, which he believes would act as a significant catalyst for institutional adoption.

Institutional Involvement and MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Purchases

The conversation shifts to the notable role of institutional investors in sustaining Bitcoin's price momentum. Van Stratten points out the significant absorption rate of Bitcoin in the market, suggesting that major players are actively purchasing and holding rather than selling.

[06:21] James Van Stratten: "... there's an accumulation game going on trying to buy, like Michael Saylor when he buys, he buys on an average basis each day."

Jen Senassi brings up MicroStrategy's aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, highlighting their recent purchase of 11,000 Bitcoin within a week. Van Stratten acknowledges this trend, noting that it's a testament to the market's confidence and the strategic maneuvers of companies like MicroStrategy.

[08:20] James Van Stratten: "He is extremely efficient with what he's saying and he's really clear... this increases the uncertainty, which increases his volatility on his stock. And that's kind of how he's packaged MicroStrategy now as a volatility equity."

Van Stratten explains that Michael Saylor's consistent and transparent approach to Bitcoin investments has positioned MicroStrategy as a proxy for Bitcoin itself, enhancing its attractiveness to investors seeking exposure to cryptocurrency volatility.

Ethereum’s Performance and Market Dynamics

Transitioning to other major cryptocurrencies, the episode explores Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin. Van Stratten observes a divergence in their market behaviors, indicating a maturing crypto market where different tokens begin to move independently based on their unique attributes and use cases.

[09:51] James Van Stratten: "... Solana is up around 30% this year where Ethereum is flat to negative. So again, I think that's quite indicative of, I believe, future performance."

He notes that while Bitcoin often leads the market trends, Ethereum and other altcoins like Solana and Ripple are starting to exhibit independent movements, suggesting a diversification in investor interests and strategies within the crypto ecosystem.

[09:33] Jen Senassi: "Now, you know, James, there was a time when we talked about Bitcoin, we would also be talking about Ether. The two kind of really seem to move in lockstep, and that's feeling kind of different now."

This shift underscores a growing sophistication among crypto investors, who are increasingly discerning between different assets rather than viewing the market as a monolithic entity.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Van Stratten reiterates his belief in Bitcoin following historical cycles, albeit with adjusted expectations for growth rates compared to 2017. He anticipates a "mania phase" potentially commencing in the fourth quarter, accelerated by favorable policy changes.

[11:39] James Van Stratten: "I believe we follow the cycle. I just don't believe we will get the returns of the 2017 cycle. But there will be a mania phase that I thought would start in Q4 that could be brought nearer into Q1 if these policies by Trump are announced."

Jen Senassi closes the discussion by directing listeners to Van Stratten's detailed article on CoinDesk titled "Bitcoin could cross $1 million by year end if it continues to follow the 2017 cycle," encouraging those interested to explore his comprehensive analysis further.

[11:14] Jen Senassi: "For anyone who wants to read James's article, it's on coindesk.com, it's called Bitcoin could cross $1 million by year end if it continues to follow the 2017 cycle."

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s Bullish Trend: Despite minor corrections, Bitcoin maintains a strong upward trend supported by institutional investments rather than retail buying.

• Cycle Analysis: Comparisons to the 2017 cycle suggest significant growth, with projections of reaching up to $180,000 by the end of Q1 2025 and potentially higher by year's end, though $1 million remains unlikely.

• Institutional Influence: Major players like MicroStrategy are heavily investing in Bitcoin, enhancing market stability and investor confidence.

• Ethereum’s Divergence: Ethereum and other altcoins are beginning to trade independently of Bitcoin, indicating a more mature and diversified crypto market.

• Policy Impact: Potential policy changes, such as the repeal of SAB121, could act as major catalysts for further institutional adoption and price increases.

For more in-depth analysis, listeners are encouraged to read James Van Stratten's article on CoinDesk and subscribe to the Markets Daily podcast for future updates and expert insights into the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.