Loading summary
Transcript23 lines
- [00:00]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
We are in this zone between 90,000 to 106,000. So that's a 16,000 level. And then if you add another 16,000, let's get you to 122,000. That's sort of like our target. I hope we're going to get there by end of February. We might get there by March, but I'm quite bullish right now.
- [00:24]
Consensus Hong Kong
We all want to believe in something. In Chinese, belief also means trust. We want to trust our systems and each other so we can build a future beyond what we know. Join us at Consensus Hong Kong, where belief becomes real.
- [00:39]
Jen Senasi
Hello and welcome to Markets Daily, hosted by me, Jen Senasi. On this show, we navigate the current shaping the crypto markets, providing insights against the broader financial landscape. So whether you're actively trading or just fascinated by the volatility that is the crypto markets, this show is your compass to understanding what's happened, where we are and where we're going. Joining Today's show is 10X Research founder Marcus Taylor Keelan. Marcus, welcome back.
- [01:03]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Thanks for having me. Glad to be here.
- [01:05]
Jen Senasi
Of course. A lot to talk about in the markets. I feel like a lot has happened since you and I last chatted, but let's talk about what's going on this morning. Markets recovering a little bit from yesterday's tech crash. Of course, that was spurred by China's deep seek AI model. Talk to me a little bit about what you're watching this morning given yesterday's events.
- [01:26]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Well, of course, everybody has become an expert around, you know, AI. What's happening? What does it mean? I think a lot of people were actually aware already last week and maybe I think the intention from some of the stock investors was to lighten up a little bit on the tech shares, you know, by themselves, really, when the earnings come out basically on Wednesday and on Thursday. I think that was kind of what people sort of like expected because last earnings season, it was already relatively tough, right? People were anticipating that corporate executives kind of guiding a little bit how much money actually is being spent and how much money probably going to turn into revenues. But, you know, there was no guidance last quarter. So I think this quarter investors probably became a little bit tired and wanted to lighten up. And I think we lightened up a little bit earlier than expected. And I think that's what everybody is like looking at. But I do think that sets up the FOMC meeting for this week a little bit more on the dovish side was actually quite positive for the market.
- [02:25]
Jen Senasi
It's interesting you say that because I Think about yesterday. I think about looking at some of the news headlines yesterday and there were words like black swan event and market crash and what's going to happen next. And what you're saying is the writing's been on the wall for a little bit now and if you've really been watching the markets, you, you may have expected this and it's not an event that's really going to shake anything in the long term.
- [02:48]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Well, precisely. I think when you look back, you know, since basically June, Nvidia has been flat. So this whole, you know, super cycle has actually been a little bit slower than probably people expected. And it's been really disappointed for those people that are really into these high beta tech stocks. And normally what we have seen, of course, you know, with Trump's first election and now with his, you know, second election, that actually the domestic companies actually are performing, you know, much better. So since June, since Nvidia is basically flat, we have the XLF as a bank index is actually up 26%. So we're seeing already the shift towards the domestic economy. And I think that's kind of like a clear sign and I think that's how when we look from a relative perspective how, you know, certain cryptocurrencies have outperformed. But again from the stock market, it's I think a clear indication where the trend is growing, going and the trend is really going to the more the domestic focus stocks. Investors were already expecting that the tech market is really like slowing down a little bit. We're seeing this already how some, you know, leading tech analysts have sort of like lowered their numbers a little bit. And I think when we're coming into this, this weeks, we are expecting some volatility. Of course we didn't expect a little mini crash that we have seen. But nevertheless, I think I'm not too concerned about it because it means actually some positive for the domestic economy. And that's where we can see how the circle closes for investors.
- [04:11]
Jen Senasi
You mentioned a few points I want to dig a little bit deeper on. But first you mentioned that FOMC meeting. What are you expecting to hear there?
- [04:19]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
So of course when we look back in the December FOMC meeting, the Fed and Powell especially were quite hawkish and I think it surprised the market. But I do think they have dialed it down or dialed it back a little bit after the January CPI data. You know, we have, you know, Fed Governor Christopher Waller coming in indicating actually that the CPI was not as high or as, not as hawkish as, you know, as the headline number indicated at 2.9% and I think also the expectations actually ramped up into that number so the expectation was suddenly reset and since then we actually had a rebound. And I think we are on a track that towards end of this month when the, when the next FOMC meeting is, you know, towards later this week that the FOMC meeting will probably be still indicating that Fed cuts are coming. I think the market price is in two cuts. So the question is only just, just when. And so I'm not too concerned about it and I do think the market is going to take some breathing room and start to rally. Especially for example like bitcoin. When you look at last night, bitcoin, yes, it fell but it recovered quite a bit. So we're not really down much and I think we are just still holding into this level and I think we are slowly going also into February and, and February tends to be usually a very strong month for, for bitcoin.
- [05:33]
Jen Senasi
I know the last time you and I spoke you predicted a rally new all time highs before March. I believe that we achieved that in December. Talk to me a little bit more about what you expect in February and could we see another all time high before March?
- [05:48]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Yeah, I, I do think so. I mean, you know, all time high is just, you know, a couple of percent away basically. But normally February is sort of like the second or the third strongest month in the year. So that's usually a good time to be, to be long. You know, we had a breakout signal, you know, last week also, you know, in bitcoin that has usually been a good leading signal really for the market to ramp higher. You know, the Chinese New Year which starts officially tomorrow, that's usually a good, also good environment to be long bitcoin. I think there are like a bunch of signals there that we monitor. We do think actually the market is a little bit stronger than some people expect. I mean we're seeing for example that stablecoin inflows are picking up not necessarily through tether, but more through circle. I think that's kind of interesting that money is actually coming into the market. You know. Yes, the funding rates are pretty, you know, tight right now, so they're pretty low. So it doesn't really indicate a lot of speculation but I think flows have been, you know, picking up and I think again I go back to the January FOMC meet, sorry, January CPI data point. Since then actually the ETF inflows have started to pick up again and since the December FOMC meeting Until the January CPI data the, the inflows were actually non existent but they have just picked up. So I think that's really like a good sign. That's why we actually more bullish right now. We're not saying everything is green, we're not saying is a parabolic move is coming but we do think we can move something like 16,000 points because the, the Bitcoin price since really the ETFs came out a year ago has been Moving in these 16,000 points move up, go sideways, move up 16,000 points go sideways and so on. And we have seen this step up process for really for the last couple of months really or if not quarters.
- [07:37]
Jen Senasi
Do you have a price target for February?
- [07:39]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Well I hope you're going to get to like around 122,000. I mean that's kind of like the level because we are in this zone between 90,000 to 106,000. So that's a 16,000 level. And then if you add another 16,000 that gets you to 122,000. That's sort of like our target. I hope we're going to get there by you know, end of February. We might get there by, by March but I'm, but I'm quite bullish right now.
- [08:04]
Jen Senasi
When we kicked off the interview you were talking about this shift towards financial over tech stocks. You mentioned Nvidia trading sideways since June and the XLF ETF which is up about 26%. Talk to me a little bit more about the significance here. What does this tell you about the shift in market and where investors should be paying attention to or over the coming months?
- [08:24]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Yeah, so I do think that you know, when we look also since the Trump election, you know which coins really have outperformed and it's very much the, the coins that are focusing more on. Yes. On the US Economy. You can argue on the payment processing coins that are you know, maybe used for you know ripple of course is, is named quite, quite often but others you know as well. So we think that's kind of like the, the way to focus on. I mean of course meme coins is always like kind of speculative but we have seen they come and go and it's very tricky to stay into it. But I think that the narrative of a strategic bitcoin reserve which has been actually almost around, you know it was first mentioned like 10 years ago but of course it was mentioned more through Senator Loomis in end of July really. But this is not just a strategic bitcoin reserve, rather a strategic digital asset Reserve. So there is already talk that maybe some other coins might be part of it. And, and I think that kind of like makes it quite interesting. So it's not just one winner take all, which of course we would prefer actually bitcoin, because I think we can build a strong narrative around it. But of course we have seen other coins really coming into the forefront, you know, Solana and Ripple and everything. So in the end I think the money is shifting to those coins, the money is coming in which we're seeing through the stable coin inflows. So that makes us quite bullish right now.
- [09:45]
Jen Senasi
One of the other points in the report that I want to touch on are the potential of crypto companies IPOing this year. I know that you have some thoughts on what this could mean for bitcoin and crypto at large, but just talk to me a little bit. I know that there are a handful of companies that are looking to IPO this year and under the new administration it might become a little bit easier for them. Talk to me about how you make sense of that again against bitcoin and the larger crypto market.
- [10:12]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Yeah, very often we're seeing of course these IPOs happening when the, when the bitcoin market is doing quite well. You know, they tend to really be timed really well. So of course our expectations is we are in a two year bull market now already. That is really time for some crypto companies really to launch. And we of course we saw during the SPAC episode that some of these, you know, IPOs failed, they're going to be repriced. But I think the window is actually there now. And so there is an incentive to keep the bitcoin price high and actually to move it up because that's usually brings in a lot of attention. You know, we have seen this of course with a Coinbase IPO, you know, in, or the Coinbase listing in April 2021, which was of course perfectly timed with the first peak of that year. And then of course we had like a later peak, but it was really mainly the coinbase listing. And very similarly when we had the, where we had the CME bitcoin futures in, you know, December 2017, the market, Bitcoin also rallied massively into that event. So, so we think there's going to be probably the MYPO machine in the background being, being run right now. You know, we know some candidates and the list that we came up with was kind of like the 10 largest names that, that appear to either were close to an ipo, you know, during the previous cycle or the, the SPAC IPO failed. You know, we know, of course, you know, we put them in the, in the report, these companies. But, but the market valuation right now is sort of like near 80 billion, which is similar when Coinbase was listed. But of course, these are. The 80 billion is only like the last rounds of valuation of these companies. So we think the number can be sort of like between like 100 to 150 billion. Of course, not every one of them will be launched or will be IPO'd this year, but I think there will be like a, like a push for these companies to be listed, some of them. And I think for that you need a higher bitcoin price. So I think there's a, there's an incentive to keep the bitcoin price high, if not even push it higher from here.
- [12:13]
Jen Senasi
That's really interesting. Now, Marcus, we got to start wrapping up and I want to ask you, outside of bitcoin, what assets are you watching? We mentioned a few already. We mentioned some of the assets that really have this payments narrative, like XRP and xlm. We talked about this digital asset reserve that could potentially include XRP and Seoul. I think we heard in some recent reports. Are those the assets you're watching? If you're looking outside of bitcoin and for folks who are investing actively, who are watching the markets, I mean, what would you tell them to watch?
- [12:46]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Well, I think of course there's, you know, Solana, of course, and the Solana network, everything around it. There's, you know, SUI and the network around it. I mean, there's some really interesting, you know, stories really, but I think I would stick to those larger caps. I think what we have learned from last year is actually that institutions are here, institutions are deploying capital and they're looking for the large caps. So I think picking the small caps, you know, there are many of them and of course, you know, we can make a story for many coins, but I think it's a simple narrative. If you just stick with the large ones, I think you're probably going to do quite well. And I think when you look how Bitcoin, the bitcoin dominance is still 57%. It just tells you, you know, risk adjusted. The Bitcoin is probably still the number one trade where you have the conviction, where the money is still coming in. And that's why we're seeing these strong ETF flows that are pushing it higher.
- [13:34]
Jen Senasi
Marcus, it's always a pleasure having you on Markets Daily. Thank you so much for joining.
- [13:39]
Marcus Taylor Keelan
Thank you.
- [13:40]
Jen Senasi
And thank you to our audience for watching and listening. If you don't already subscribe to the Coindesk Podcast network that is available on all podcast platforms. If you prefer watching us, we're on YouTube. Hit subscribe, give us a thumbs up and we will see you tomorrow.