Crypto Update | Will the Economic Crisis Push Bitcoin to New Heights?

Summary

Summary of "Crypto Update | Will the Economic Crisis Push Bitcoin to New Heights?"

Podcast: Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
Host/Author: CoinDesk
Release Date: April 7, 2025
Episode Title: Crypto Update | Will the Economic Crisis Push Bitcoin to New Heights?

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Introduction

In this episode of Markets Daily Crypto Roundup, host Ryan Reynolds welcomes guest Bill Noble, a YouTuber and former futures trader, to discuss the current state of crypto markets amidst economic turbulence. The conversation delves into historical market crises, the potential of Bitcoin as a store of value, the impact of tariffs, and the future outlook for cryptocurrency in the next twelve months.

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Comparing Today's Market to Black Monday 1987

Bill Noble begins by contrasting the current market conditions with the infamous Black Monday of 1987. He emphasizes the differences in market infrastructure and investor behavior between the two periods.

“In 87, Black Monday was where, you know, 3 and 5% moves became a 25% move in one day... today's market dynamics are vastly different.”
[01:25]

He highlights that the presence of social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) allows for real-time information dissemination, potentially mitigating panic-driven sell-offs that characterized the 1987 crash.

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Parallels Between 1987, 2008, and Today

Discussing historical market downturns, Bill Noble identifies similarities between 1987, the 2008 financial crisis, and the current economic scenario. Key parallels include concerns over trade balances, high-interest rates, and inflation management by the Federal Reserve.

“In 87, you do have parallels... One, there was concern about our trade balance with Japan... Interest rates were way too high.”
[03:00]

He draws attention to the current ultra-low inflation rates juxtaposed with high-interest rates, suggesting that these factors could trigger significant market volatility similar to past crises.

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Bitcoin as the New Gold: A Safe Haven

The conversation shifts to Bitcoin's role in today's economy. Bill Noble argues that Bitcoin is positioning itself as the modern equivalent of gold, serving as a hedge against traditional financial instability.

“Bitcoin may help people sleep better at night.”
[07:05]

He cites institutional moves, such as BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF and Fidelity’s involvement, as indicators of Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a legitimate store of value.

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Understanding Crypto Market Volatility

Ryan Reynolds inquires about the current volatility in Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Bill Noble attributes this to hedge funds liquidating positions and widespread "mindless selling" across the market.

“If you sell what's not working and take a loss, you go, well, what is working? Oh, Bitcoin.”
[09:02]

He explains that traditional financial markets have largely priced in a recession, influencing investors to seek refuge in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and stablecoins, thereby increasing their volatility.

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The Impact of Tariffs on the Economy and Crypto

The discussion turns to the recent implementation of tariffs and their broader economic implications. Bill Noble contends that tariffs are not merely negotiating tactics but strategic moves to devalue the currency and manage the national debt.

“It's about refinancing a quasi insolvent government... it's like a tax on trade.”
[11:18]

He argues that such measures could indirectly benefit Bitcoin by undermining the traditional fiat system, making decentralized cryptocurrencies more attractive.

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Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Senate Proposal

Ryan Reynolds brings up Senator Cynthia Lummis's proposal for a strategic Bitcoin reserve to address the U.S. government's debt. Bill Noble views this initiative favorably but criticizes its timing, suggesting it appears reactive rather than proactive.

“Strategic bitcoin reserve makes a lot of sense, but... the timing was off.”
[13:15]

He believes institutional adoption, exemplified by figures like Michael Saylor, is crucial for Bitcoin's integration into national financial strategies.

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Analysis of MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor

The conversation shifts to MicroStrategy and its CEO, Michael Saylor. Bill Noble praises Saylor’s strategy of holding substantial Bitcoin reserves, viewing it as a unique and resilient approach in the volatile crypto market.

“Michael Saylor... he's got so much bitcoin, I don't think anybody could go in the open market and do that without buying a bitcoin miner.”
[14:54]

He underscores MicroStrategy’s strong position, suggesting that its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation provides a competitive moat that other tech stocks lack, especially in the era of AI-driven market shifts.

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Forecasting the Next 12 Months for Crypto

Looking ahead, Bill Noble expresses optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next year. He anticipates that despite short-term volatility, cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, will experience substantial growth as it increasingly becomes a cornerstone of future financial systems.

“12 months out, all of crypto is going to be higher, much higher... it's the future.”
[16:23]

He also highlights the potential for increased stablecoin proliferation and AI integration to further bolster Bitcoin’s position in the market.

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with Bill Noble reiterating his bullish stance on Bitcoin, emphasizing its role as a fundamental technology and alternative monetary system poised to thrive amidst economic uncertainties. Ryan Reynolds thanks Noble for his insights, wrapping up the discussion on a forward-looking note.

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Notable Quotes:

• “That's how the panic built back then… and that was so bad… versus if it trends the night before on X, yeah, there might be a down move.” — Bill Noble [01:25]
• “Bitcoin may help people sleep better at night.” — Bill Noble [07:05]
• “If you sell what's not working and take a loss, you go, well, what is working? Oh, Bitcoin.” — Bill Noble [09:02]
• “Strategic bitcoin reserve makes a lot of sense, but... the timing was off.” — Bill Noble [13:15]
• “12 months out, all of crypto is going to be higher, much higher... it's the future.” — Bill Noble [16:23]

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This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and forward-looking statements made during the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who haven't listened to the full podcast.

Transcript

[Bill Noble]

Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail] Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Month plan equivalent to $15 per month Required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees, extra fee, full terms.

[Bill Noble]

@Mintmobile.Com everybody at was talking about 250 and now when Bitcoin's at 74, they're all looking for 68 or whatever. 12 months out, all of crypto is going to be higher, much higher. Right. Because it's this simple. It's the future, right? You got nowhere else to bet on technology and the future of money.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Many are coining today. Black Monday. But our next guest says that it doesn't quite compare to the Black Monday that occurred in 1987, despite the market's free falling. YouTuber Bill Noble, who has worked as a futures trader both on trading desks and on the floor of the cboe, says that bitcoin will rise from the ashes and prevail as a store of value. Bill Noble, welcome to Markets Daily.

[Bill Noble]

Hi, thanks for having me.

[Ryan Reynolds]

All right. Happy Black Monday, I guess. And the reason I'm starting with that is because I follow you on X and I saw what you posted this morning. You said that it can't be Black Monday if it trends on X the night before. Talk to me about what you mean there.

[Bill Noble]

In 87, Black Monday was where, you know, 3 and 5% moves became a 25% move in one day. You know, no circuit breakers, no Internet. You know, it was retail brokers had a stand in line with a stack of tickets to a wire room, right? And they just wire one order after the other. So that's how the panic built back then. And that was so bad. Like I called my dad who was a stockbroker. I was like, dad, do I have to come home from college? There's another story about a guy who left the New York Stock Exchange, bought a gold bar and just sat in his bed in the fetal position with his gold bar. Like 87 was like psychologically scarring, shocking. Whereas if it trends the night before on X, yeah, there might be a down move. But you know, take it easy on Black Monday, guys. That was really bad well, talk to.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Me a little bit about that. I think that there are many people who watch the show who didn't really live through, through 87 the way that you did. What are the similarities and differences we're seeing here? We're seeing a lot of analysts compare what's happening in the markets right now, what's happening in the economy right now, to 87 and even 2008. What are the similarities and differences?

[Bill Noble]

Okay, this is a great question. In 87, you do, you do have parallels. One, there was concern about our trade balance with Japan. The old school name for the number that was released was merchandise trade. Then you had a young Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, who was trying to talk all tough on inflation. Right. Like his predecessor, Paul Volcker. Right. Interest rates were way too high. I think the 30 year bond printed 10%. Right. Bonds were going down, yields were rising. Interest rates were way, way too high. And that's what triggered it. So, you know the truflation index shows inflation at 1%. Powell babbling at the last meeting about concern over inflation. Right. So that's what smells like 87. Right. And you can have extreme downside volatility, particularly if retail panics and hedge funds get liquidated. It's not uncommon back then. My father blamed it on all program trading, the algorithms of the 80s. And you could have algorithm based commodity trading advisors selling today, but that may bring it to an end. I mean, equities normally don't bottom on a Monday, but come Tuesday and Wednesday, people might look around and go, okay, why are we doing this, particularly in bitcoin?

[Ryan Reynolds]

Tell me a little bit more about what you mean there. If you look at what's happening now, when do you expect the bottom to come? How do you expect to see Bitcoin react? And is that different than the rest of the crypto markets?

[Bill Noble]

Okay, yes. Right. Because equities people have undoubtedly discovered that they're magnificent. Seven positions are no longer magnificent going forward. Right. Those stocks are not going back to their highs anytime soon. And if you want to trade AI, you probably got to trade in crypto or somewhere else. All right? So when everybody goes and adds a zero to their Bitcoin allocation. So if they're 3% Bitcoin, they could go to 30% Bitcoin, or they have 2% Bitcoin, they could go to 20% Bitcoin. If you think about it, you know, what's wrong with 50% bitcoin stocks? 20% bitcoin, 20% other, for example. Right. What's wrong with that? Nothing. Matter of fact, it makes a lot of sense and it's going to make a lot of sense, particularly if you have a, you know, maybe it's a Black Monday, maybe it isn't, but you've kind of already psychologically scarred people. So equities will go down and then find a range. Bitcoin could go down and come screaming off the bottom, right? Like, equities might go down in range, bitcoin might go down. Because it's very simple. Whatever's going on with the tariffs and we can go into it if you want, you know, tariffs, $9 trillion, it has to be refinanced. Look, we need a different form of money, right? We can talk about the motivations, but at the end of the day, this is what Satoshi meantos when he made bitcoin. And everybody, meaning equity and crypto people are going to figure this out if they haven't already.

[Ryan Reynolds]

It's interesting you say that we come back to the original thesis of bitcoin. If you go back and read the bitcoin white paper for our audience who maybe hasn't read it yet, you're right. It was created out of the 2008 global financial crisis and it feels very similar to what we're experiencing now. At the beginning of the interview, you told that story about the guy who went and bought gold bar after 87. I mean, help me draw a parallel here. Do you see bitcoin as that gold bar now? And do you think that we're going to see new entrants into the bitcoin space as people start to kind of become aware as to what's happening from a global economic perspective and from a crypto perspective.

[Bill Noble]

Yeah. I mean, this is what BlackRock built the Bitcoin ETF for. This is why they built it. You know, this is why Fidelity has it. Right? Because they don't want everybody like selling equities and leaving their company. They want to be able to roll them into something, you know, and then this idea that you're just going to need a different form of money. It's like dollar tariff, crisis of confidence, euro, yen, right? Like, what's your choice? And then, you know, if you go to the bitcoin standard book, it's gradually then suddenly, right? And that could happen in bitcoin. And I don't think people are focused on that. Right. They're kind of focused of, oh, you know, I got levered or hedge funds, you know, risk management in hedge funds. It's like imagine four dogs in kennels. Close to each other. You know, if the stock dog starts barking, the bond dog will start barking, and then eventually the crypto dog will start barking. But when everyone calms down, people might look at crypto and go, oh, and you are right. You know, I don't know if people are going to put Bitcoin on a hard wallet and lie in bed in a fetal position. But Bitcoin may help people sleep better at night. And again, you're going to be shocked at how fast not just people, but countries figure this out. Because whatever this tariff thing is, you can call it a lot of things, and I have what I call it, but it could change the way people think about currencies.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Well, just for our audience who's maybe watching what's happening in the markets now, seeing Bitcoin on that free fall, along with other crypto assets and non crypto assets, how do you make sense of the volatility against what you've just said?

[Bill Noble]

Well, there's the idea that, you know, hedge funds are getting liquidated. So, you know, barking dog analogy aside, it's just like we may be in this just sell everything mode. Like if you sell what's not working and take a loss, you go, well, what is working? Oh, bitcoin. Okay, sell that too. Right. It's mindless selling. Right. And then, you know, that's what creates the volatility, you know, because Legacy has, tradfi has priced in a recession. I mean, it was more or less priced in three or four days ago. And by the time this is said and done, they'll have a recession, 100% priced in. Now, of course, after they get it 100% priced in, it may not happen. You may get lower rates, lower inflation. Because I think at the end of the day, the administration wants lower rates. So there'll be a bid for all these bonds that they have to issue. Right. They have to issue $9 trillion in bonds this year, I believe. Right. And even if it's less than that, it's still trillions. So, you know, you have to ask yourself, it's like, wow, they did this tariff thing. Isn't that a tax on trade? First thing. First thing I said when they did it was, wow, they're broke. They just raised taxes indiscriminately. Why? Well, because they got a, they gotta, they gotta refinance the debt. So if you're a bitcoin investor or you're a crypto investor, you know, stablecoins, Bitcoin, xrp, whatever, you go, wow, Uncle Sugar's Run out of sugar. I got to get outside the system. So that's how I think you make sense of the volatility and come up with a plan for what's next.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Let's talk about those tariffs. You know, we've had a lot of analysts who've come on this show and have said, you know, the tariffs really are just a negotiating tactic. We've seen that across multiple different news outlets, multiple different headlines. The tariffs seem to have, they seem to be taking a few steps forward and a few steps back, back. And then we've had this kind of catalyst recently. Talk to me about what you think the motivations are behind them and how they're going to continue to impact what's happening from a global economic perspective.

[Bill Noble]

Okay. Tariffs as a negotiating tactic, not only is it being espoused by nine out of 10 people, it's also propaganda. It's wrong in my opinion. In other words, right after they did it, you had the Treasury Secretary on with Tucker Carlson. Right? Tucker's dad was the intelligence community. And you could make an argument Tucker is too, maybe. Why is the Treasury Secretary talking about tariffs? That's like Secretary of State, maybe some Fed economists. President, Secretary of the treasury talks about like refunding interest rates, something going on with the dollar, not tariffs. Right. So he's out front because he's in charge of the refunding. You know, he needs the dollar lower. Right. It's the only way out of a debt crisis is to devalue the currency. I'll spare you the economics textbook. You don't have to read it now. Right. So he's out front because they need rates down. They need enough fear where there's demand for the bonds that they issue, hopefully without wrecking everything. That's a very delicate balance. But this, this tariffs as a negotiating tax. Oh please. That's stuff, that's stuff that they say on Air Force One. This is about refunding a quasi insolvent government. They were spending a trillion dollars every five months like last year. Naughty bitcoin. You know.

[Ryan Reynolds]

You know, I recently did an interview with sender Cynthia Lummis and I'm sure you know that the Bitcoin act is one of the solutions that's being presented that's being led by her to start to tackle this 30/ something trillion dollar debt that the US government has. What do you think of her plan for a strategic bitcoin reserve held by the government of the usa?

[Bill Noble]

Well, I think it makes all the sense in the world, but there is some comedy about this, that if the Orange man was going to drop this kind of bomb, they should have bought bitcoin before that. Now they may wind up paying 120. You know, I think Cynthia Loomis got her ideas from. From maybe Michael Saylor and RFK Jr. Who wanted to use Bitcoin as partial backing for the currency and certain types of treasuries. You know, you can go back to consensus, you know, maybe a year ago and check that speech out. So, yeah, strategic bitcoin reserve makes a lot of sense, but, I mean, the timing was off. Do it before you drop the bomb. Now. If you do it now, it looks like you're panicking, like, oh, I better get bitcoin on the balance sheet. It's like. It's like a. You know, everyone's looking for an emergency Fed rate cut. We could talk about that, too. But Cynthia's completely got the right idea because if we don't do it, someone else is going to do it quickly. Like, how. How long do you think the stock market thing can go on before people go, gee, we better do something? So, yeah, yeah. Michael Sailor and Cynthia Loomis. The only problem with Michael Sailor and Cynthia Loomis is that you only got two people out there talking about it. Who's going to help these people? Like, I would volunteer, but, you know, I'm not famous yet.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Yeah, may. Maybe there's a. A side gig out there for you, Bill.

[Bill Noble]

Yes. Give me the microphone.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Well, let's talk about Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. How are you looking at MicroStrategy amid everything else that's happening this morning?

[Bill Noble]

Okay, well, hedge funds are all shorted. So if everyone expects the same thing, something else happens. They were all long Nvidia short micro strategy. Long Nvidia didn't work out. You know, Michael Saylor. This is a guy I used to work with, believe it or not. He says MicroStrategy has a moat around a moat. Right. There's no way to put the software that runs bitcoin into a chatbot and replicate it. You could put the code for TikTok into a chatbot. It could replicate it. But you're not replicating bitcoin as software one and two. You know, he's got so much bitcoin, I don't think anybody could go in the open market and do that without buying a bitcoin miner. So his stock is very unique. Yes, his stock is expensive. If you got any legacy spreadsheet guys out there, relative to the bitcoin, he holds who cares, right, if the world's coming unglued? This guy has a moat where no tech stock, no software company has a moat any more because of AI. Again, this, you know, somebody, you know, Jordy Visser was the guy who came up with this, and he's absolutely right. And everyone's short the stock. It's like really, you know, and again, Mike is on TV every day, right? He does his tour every day, says the same thing. You know, he's right. And everybody keeps waiting for him to be wrong. He's reckless, he's this, he's that. Every time I see the Michael Saylor's reckless headline, that's the bottom.

[Ryan Reynolds]

That's interesting. Well, I mean, before we wrap up, Bill, talk to me. When is the bottom coming? Has it come already? Where do we go from here? If you look at the next 12 months, what do you see happening when it comes to crypto and risk on assets?

[Bill Noble]

Okay, all right. Well, stocks are in a range, right? I mean, it took equities in 87. I mean, there was a wretched double bottom in, in December. So it was bottom in October, completely frightening. Retest in December, and then it took a year to get back to the highs. May see the same thing in stocks, you know, 12 months out. You know, the, the Fed will probably be in full print mode by the time that happens. So, you know, everybody at 109 was talking about 250. And now when Bitcoin's at 74, they're all looking for 68 or whatever. 12 months out, all of crypto is going to be higher, much higher, right? Because it's this simple. It's the future, right? You got nowhere else to bet on technology and the future of money. Besant, the Treasury Secretary, you know, the spokesman for the administration on the money side, wants a huge proliferation of stable coins, right? Stablecoin companies like Tether buy treasuries and they, they issue stable coins everywhere. He said that we want these things everywhere as a way to keep people interested in the dollar. So if you flood the system with stable coins and the Fed pushes money into the system to absorb the 9 trillion in debt, you just have this sloshing, massive amount of liquidity that'll be there. That's gonna, that's gonna push everything. First it'll push bitcoin and then everybody's gonna go, wow, look, there's an AI agent doing something in crypto, right? Remember AI agents like last year? AI agents will do everything. Now you mention AI agents and people go It's Black Monday. Don't talk to me about that. So you know AI agents, Bitcoin, stablecoins. It's going to happen. Don't throw the upside targets out. Don't.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Phil, thanks so much for joining me this morning.

[Bill Noble]

You're welcome.