Is A Bull Run Still in Play for Q4?

Summary

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Episode Overview

Title: Is A Bull Run Still in Play for Q4?
Date: October 14, 2025
Host: Jen Senassi (CoinDesk)
Guest: Alice Liu (Head of Research, CoinMarketCap)

This episode of Markets Outlook dives into the recent turbulence in crypto markets, analyzes the catalysts for market action (including macroeconomic events and whale activity), dissects the resurgence of BNB and meme coins, and discusses the evolving role of digital asset treasuries and the impending decisions on altcoin ETFs. Host Jen Senassi and guest Alice Liu provide in-depth commentary on whether a Q4 bull run is likely and which sectors to watch.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Weekend Market Volatility and Macro Influences ([01:19]–[04:40])

• Recent Pullback and Recovery:
  Over the long weekend, crypto markets saw a sharp drop, followed by a partial recovery before another pullback. As of recording, BTC is down to $111K, global market cap sits at $3.67T, and most major asset classes (including gold and crude) are declining.
  “We had BTC bouncing back to 115k on Monday, but things started to pull back again today… the whole global market seems to be for a certain next 24 hours or so.” — Alice ([01:35])

• Global Context:
  Weakness is not isolated to crypto; U.S. equities and Asian markets are also softening, driven in part by U.S. tariffs on China and rare earth export curbs.
  "What could really impact crypto price...is the escalating US China trade disputes...should the conversation intensify, that could have a big impact on the global market side." — Alice ([02:41])

2. Key Market Catalysts: Tariffs, ETF Flows, Powell’s Upcoming Speech ([02:41]–[04:40])

• Critical Events to Watch:
  • Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the potential for further escalation.
  • ETF inflow dynamics versus profit-taking: whether ETF-driven liquidity can offset broader equity market weakness.
  • Jerome Powell’s speech—his first public remarks since the September rate cut—which may hint at the Fed’s next moves. “All eyes are on Jerome Powell’s speech in his first public appearance since the September rate cut… what people are really looking at is his comments on the job markets, on the inflation points, on the general health of the US economy at the moment.” — Alice ([03:50])

3. Whale Shorts and Technical Levels ([04:46]–[07:32])

• Notable Whale Activity:
  A high-profile wallet, known for recent big shorts, has re-entered with a 6.6x leveraged position, nearly $500M size, entry at $115k, and generated $192M profit.
  “The one ending with 3ae… put on a massive short again earlier Today. Overall the position is close to 500 million at the moment… That trade alone has already generated a massive profit for that address…” — Alice ([04:46])

• Why Whale Activity Matters:
  These positions heavily influence market psychology, causing institutions and traders to hesitate.
  “What we are seeing is all this speculative so-called insider wallets, insider short positions that are giving a big indication to the market at the moment…they are having such a strong psychological impact…” — Alice ([06:27])

• Critical Levels for BTC:
  If BTC fails to hold above key moving averages ($116–117K), or if it slips below $109K, it could trigger a sharper decline to $105K.
  "If we can't hold this 109k towards the end of the day and that could potentially trigger further downward spiral to 105k for us…” — Alice ([05:54])

4. Why Volatility Spikes on Weekends ([08:50])

• Strategic Timing:
  Major political announcements often drop late on Fridays so markets can digest during the weekend, but crypto is 24/7, leading to more pronounced moves outside regular market hours. "Trump always chickens out. That's why some of this very important sort of so-called decisions or tactics that he's releasing on Truth Social on Fridays because global markets are closed over the weekend. So he is buying in that time for the market to digest…” — Alice ([08:50])

5. BNB’s Surge and the Meme Coin Wave ([09:29]–[12:50])

• BNB’s All-Time High:
  BNB hit $1,317, flipping Blackstone’s market cap to become a top DeFi player. This is attributed to:

  • The rise of Perp DEXs like Aster, which generated huge volume leading into recent airdrops.
  • A meme coin “rush”, particularly strong on the BNB Chain and boosted by the Chinese-speaking community and internal Binance culture. “BNB has had such amazing bull run for the past two weeks…what we are seeing is a huge wave of meme rush happening on VMV chain…” — Alice ([09:48])

• Significance of the Meme Coin Comeback:
  Indicates robust retail appetite, active communities, and points to ongoing altcoin season. "Altcoin season is happening. It's unfolding in front of your eyes…what this meme rush really showed for us is the drive, the amount of capital inflows, the power, the momentum that we have in crypto has not been lost yet.” — Alice ([11:26])

• Notable Meme Coins:
  Bian Yunsheng, Ha Jimin, and others are seeing market cap spikes reminiscent of Solana’s meme rally earlier in the year.

6. Q4 Outlook and Sector Standouts ([12:50]–[14:04])

• BTC & ETH Predictions:
  BTC: $150k remains the year-end target, based on multiple technical and sentiment-driven factors.
  ETH: Uncertain due to “so many things happening”, but DeFi, perpetual DEXs, lending products, and stablecoin yields are highlighted as hot sectors.

• Altcoin Trends:
  DeFi innovation, lending, and the resurgence of meme coins and launchpads are all expected to drive altcoin outperformance into year-end. “We are scheduled for Bora in Q4…if we look at the momentum happening in meme coins… that gives me the foundation to still say we are going to have a very strong Q4.” — Alice ([12:46])

7. Digital Asset Treasuries & the Coming ETF Decisions ([14:04]–[16:46])

• Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Evolution:
  Year-end tax seasonality may now impact crypto as it does traditional assets. DATs drive trends in altcoins like Solana, BNB, and Tron, but are so far mostly industry/insider focused. “Bear in mind there is such a seasonality in traditional financial markets at the end of the year for some tax crystallization, sales and readjustments of the portfolios. So potentially that could introduce a new uncertainty or new seasonality into crypto…” — Alice ([14:29])

• What’s Next:
  SEC decisions on spot ETFs for altcoins like XRP, Solana are expected starting October 18th; the overall narrative could shift if approved. “Are we going to have a blessing from the SEC to have an altcoin ETF season—that will then further drive us forward?” — Alice ([15:55])

• DATs vs. Spot ETFs:
  DATs offer leverage and unique structuring not replicated by spot ETFs, so both can coexist, serving different institutional appetites. “With the DAT it’s always a leveraged position… just giving more route to market for the institutional investors however they want to play with the portfolio.” — Alice ([16:13])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Whale Psychological Impact:
  “What we are seeing is all this speculative so-called insider wallets… giving a big indication to the market… they are having such a strong psychological impact…” — Alice ([06:27])

• On Meme Coins as Market Signal:
  “Altcoin season is happening. It’s unfolding in front of your eyes… what this meme rush really showed for us is the drive, the amount of capital inflows.” — Alice ([11:26])

• Year-End Prediction:
  “BTC, I think for 150k, that has been our prediction based on a lot of the factors… that has not been changed despite, you know, this slight downturn that just happened.” — Alice ([13:00])

• On ETF vs. DAT Structure:
  “With the DAT it’s always a leveraged position… ETFs… just giving more route to market for the institutional investors however they want to play…” — Alice ([16:13])

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:35] Market overview & macro pullback
• [02:41] Key catalysts for near-term price action
• [04:46] Whale short wallet activity and implications
• [09:48] BNB’s bull run and meme coin resurgence
• [11:26] Meme rush as indicator of altcoin season
• [12:50] Q4 outlook, BTC and ETH predictions
• [14:29] Digital asset treasury analysis & sector impact
• [15:55] Anticipation of SEC altcoin ETF decisions
• [16:13] DATs vs. ETF narrative and coexistence

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Summary Conclusion

In this episode, Jen Senassi and Alice Liu paint a complex picture of current crypto market conditions: headlines dominated by macroeconomic unpredictability, whale trading driving market psychology, and the resurgence of meme coins and altcoin cycles revitalizing sentiment. The Q4 outlook stays bullish, particularly for BTC and DeFi sectors, while all eyes now turn to Powell’s speech and regulatory decisions on altcoin ETFs. The consensus: the bull run narrative is not dead—just evolving, and savvy market participants need to stay nimble and tuned in.

Transcript

[A]

A lot of people are discussing, are we going to have an altcoin season? When is it going to happen? Altcoin season is happening. It's unfolding in front of your eyes. You just have to be standing in the right segment for that. Because, for example, what this meme rush really showed for us is the drive, the amount of capital inflows, the power, the momentum that we have in crypto has not been lost yet.

[B]

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[A]

Hi, Jen. Great to be here. Thanks for having me.

[B]

Of course. Great for you to be here with me. We just came off a long weekend here in North America. The Canadian Canadians had Thanksgiving in America, we had Columbus Day. And what a crazy time it was for crypto markets. So just talk to me about what you're watching on this Tuesday morning.

[A]

Yeah, sure. So we have seen the market had quite a severe pullback over the weekend. Things started to recover a little bit. We had BTC bouncing back to 115k on Monday, but things started to pull back again today. So as we started the day, we're seeing the general global market cap, it's still falling back down. Right now we are just at 3.67 trillion at the moment. BTC back to 111k and we're seeing the market going down. Not just crypto, not just btc, not just the alts as well. But we saw, for example, gold is pulling down crude oil. Asian markets, generally speaking, are also coming down a bit. We did See S&P 500, NASDAQ correcting slightly earlier today, but the whole global market seems to be for a certain next 24 hours or so.

[B]

Well, one of the catalysts here was of course those tariffs that the United States is imposing on China. Talk to me about what you expect to see from here. Just make sense of this for me. If we take a step back and we look at it from a global perspective, what happens from here?

[A]

Yeah, sure. So what could really impact crypto price for us in the next 24 to 48 hours or so? Two things. Number one, as you mentioned, the trade war tension, where do we go from here? The escalating US China trade disputes including the 100% tariffs and the rare earth export curbs for example those should the conversation intensify, that could have a big impact on the global market side. But also the second thing we're monitoring right now is ETF inflows versus that of profit taking. So the ETF driven liquidity could fuel rebounds, but prolonged equity weakness or outflows may delay new highs for us. And number three, which is what caught my attention most today, is Jerome Powell's speech coming out in a few hours or so because right now the whole global market is watching. That's one of the reason why gold is also having a bit of pullback as well. Because you know, should the market go into uncertainty times. Normally gold is the hedge, gold is the place where people go for safety and in uncertain times. But not today. And the reason for that is all eyes are on Jerome Powell's speech in his first public appearance since the September rate cut. So he's due to give a speech at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the National national association for Business Economics annual meeting today that is scheduled between 11:30 to 1:00pm today. And what people are really looking at is his comments on the job markets, on the inflation points, on the general health of the US economy at the moment. So people are anticipating because of what has changed since his last appearance at the FOMC meeting is the government shutdown, is the weakening job data. Could potentially this reasons strengthen the case for easing further, could we potentially have another rate cut? I think that is going to be very important of a speech to watch out for ahead of the Oct. 29 Fed meeting.

[B]

Again, what are you listening for? And do you expect more rate cuts to come this year?

[A]

It's hard to say at the moment given how all those things are happening at the moment. But one interesting point to monitor is for the near short term is for the next 24, 48 hours that we just mentioned. You guys remember the wallets? That was the biggest shorts right before the BTC crash over the weekend, the one ending with 3ae. That one has put on a massive short again earlier Today. So overall the position is close to 500 million at the moment on that supposedly inside short wallet and they are having the BTC on at 6.6x leverage, entry point 115k and the liquidation point at 124 at the moment. That trade alone has already generated a massive profit for that address at the moment. So what we are really monitoring in the short term is for the BTC technical analysis. Should the, you know, BTC fell to hold above the 7 day SMA or the 30 day SMA which both are at around 117 to 116k, this could further trigger potential sell offs. And if we can't hold right now we're at 111k at the mom. If we can't hold this 109k towards the end of the day and that could potentially trigger further downward spiral to 105k for us in the very near future.

[B]

Now the wallet you were just talking about profited $192 million. After last week's downturn, there's now a new short position on Bitcoin of $163 million. From your perspective, why is it so important to watch these whale wallets? What are you deriving from their activity?

[A]

Sure. So we have to understand two things when Bitcoin and general crypto market when it, it moves on two factors. Number one, it's the solid macroeconomic foundations. The second is the market psychology. So from both sides we're seeing uncertainty on the macroeconomic side. On the trading behavior side, what we are seeing is all this speculative so called insider wallets, insider short positions that are giving a big indication to the market at the moment. I believe a lot of people are looking at it right now, you know, BTC at 111k and asking where is my October is not coming here. But at the same time I was wondering, I know it's supposed to be a great month for us, but look at this. But what is really happening is this short position, whale wallets, they are having such a strong psychological impact to the market at the moment that a lot of the institutions, traders, professionals are holding onto the capital and looking at the moment as opposed to moving to the direction where they have previously believed to be.

[B]

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[A]

People are right about taco traits. You know Trump always chicken out. That's why some of this very important sort of so called decisions or tactics that he's releasing on Truth Social on Fridays because global markets are closed over the weekend. So he is buying in that time for the market to digest some of those information. But unfortunately for us for crypto it opens 24. 7. So I think that's one of the reasons why information sources like yourself or like us, I think it's very important to keep our users updated 24. 7. But that also means I don't know about you. I worked over the weekend for sure so there's just nonstop for us at the moment.

[B]

Oh my gosh. I think everyone did. I want to zoom out a little bit, turn our attention away from bitcoin and global markets and talk a little bit about bnb. I know BNB recently hit a new all time high. What's bringing all the attention back into the BNB ecosystem?

[A]

Yeah, so BNB has had such amazing bull run for the past two weeks or so. A few reasons anchoring that. So yesterday we did BNB refreshing another all time high at 1317 USD. That happened yesterday on the 13th of October and that has brought BNB market cap to over 189 billion USD and that flips that of Blackstone. A few reasons for that from two aspects. Number one is DeFi with the likes of Aster. The popularity of Perp Dex that we saw. Aster for example generated the leading amount of volume for the week leading up to the listening airdrop. But also at the same time what we are seeing is a huge wave of meme rush happening on VMV chain. I don't know if you can log on to 4 meme nowadays and you see all these Chinese characters because I speak Chinese myself so I understand some of those. A lot of those are Chinese Internet cultures. A lot of those are also related to Binance ecosystem and Binance Employees and families, I guess. So a lot of those memes have seen a very strong traction for the past two weeks, supported by the Chinese community. But also it's just great to see a comeback off the meme wave again. And that has firmly put, for example, 4 meme as the number one launchpad for the past seven days in terms of revenue and also the amount of tokens created.

[B]

What does a comeback of memes tell you about where we are in the market? You know, I often say the memes are really fun, but maybe are a little bit of a distraction to what's really going on in the ecosystem. Why is it important and what does it tell us about where we are?

[A]

So this also links to alt season. A lot of people are discussing are we going to have an altcoin season? When is it going to happen? Altcoin season is happening. It's unfolding in front of your eyes. You just have to be standing in the right segment for that. Because, for example, what this meme rush really showed for us is the drive, the amount of capital inflows, the power, the momentum that we have in crypto has not been lost yet. And when we have a narrative that we're seeing the community rushing behind it, that's the momentum we're seeing. And the amount of the price momentum, not just on BNB itself, but some of the leading meme coins, for example Bian Yunsheng, for example Ha Jimin, some of those have really had such strong uplift of market cap, the likes that we saw back then earlier this year when the SOL meme season came. So I guess that shows us the whole spirit of crypto of the degen groups are still here and we are scheduled for Bora in Q4. I know it's very hard to believe at the moment. I know it's dark for a lot of people that got liquidated over the weekend. But at the same time, if we look at the momentum happening in meme coins when the rush came, when we see the strong ETF inflows that still persists from the institutional side this week, that gives me the foundation to still say we are going to have a very strong Q4.

[B]

Okay, very strong Q4. I gotta ask you, some people don't like when I ask this, but where do you think we land with bitcoin and eth by the end of Q4 and what's the standout alt gonna be?

[A]

So for BTC and ether BTC, I think for 150k that has been our prediction based on a Lot of the factors based on past performance, momentum, CMC fair and rating debts. We have a lot of community sentiment that we collect as well. So that has been the prediction consistently for Q4 that has not been changed despite, you know, this slight down downturn that just happened. So for btc, that level for Ether really don't know at the moment. There are so many things happening. But to your point of what else are going to really Progress in this Q4 we are seeing the strong performance of Defi especially for still for perp Dexs and also for lending products as well as do the consistent development on the yield stablecoin side. So those three are still going to be a very strong push in the Defi ecosystem for us. Apart from that is some of the applications, some of the potentially, you know, Launchpad now making a comeback. But also at the same same time Meme Coins are still having a great season ahead as well.

[B]

Now just before I let you go, I want to get your perspective on digital asset Treasuries. It feels like we have a new digital asset treasury every day popping up. Some that are taking advantage of some of the alts that we've spoken about on the show and then others are, you know, all in on Bitcoin and Ether. What's your perspective? Are we going to see a consolidation in digital asset Treasuries? Are we going to see these fade out? Are they really what's going to drive crypto into its next era? What do you think?

[A]

Yep. So one thing with introduction of digital asset treasury is now that we follow a lot more based on the tax year, sort of read them as well. So bear in mind there is such a seasonality in traditional financial markets at the end of the year for some tax crystallization, sales and readjustments of the portfolios. So potentially that could introduce a new uncertainty or new seasonality into crypto, especially for BTC for us at the moment. Now for the alts, that's a different play. I believe that has been a massive help in terms of, you know, the most recent uplifts we saw with Solana, we saw with bnb, Tron, et cetera, with the introduction of the digital asset treasury place. But at the same time I think the momentum of that is not enough yet. A lot of it is industry own understanding the existing big players in this industry putting a DAT together. What you really need is what BTC has, which is a DAT for the outsiders, not for the insiders. I think that is going to be the next important development. We should focus on in the alt space. That said, I think in the next week or so we are going to have the ETF decisions gradually coming out starting from the 18th of October, I think with XRP, with Solana, with a lot of those spot ETF decisions. Are we going to have a blessing from the SEC to have an altcoin ETF season that will then further drive us forward?

[B]

Well, I guess my last question for you here is once we get the altcoin ETFs does it take some steam out of the digital asset treasury narrative?

[A]

They are not really competing directly with each other per se because with the DAT it's always a leveraged position. There will always be additional benefits to that structure versus that of a direct spot ETF holdings. But the channels of this going into I think potentially for the ETFs to have a broader audience or just a more plain vanilla instrument for Wall street investment side as opposed to a more advanced, you know, DAT play, it's just giving more route to market for the institutional investors however they want to play with the portfolio.

[B]

Alice, thanks so much for joining me today. It was a pleasure having you on.

[A]

Thank you very much for having me.