Episode Overview

Title: Is A Bull Run Still in Play for Q4?
Date: October 14, 2025
Host: Jen Senassi (CoinDesk)
Guest: Alice Liu (Head of Research, CoinMarketCap)

This episode of Markets Outlook dives into the recent turbulence in crypto markets, analyzes the catalysts for market action (including macroeconomic events and whale activity), dissects the resurgence of BNB and meme coins, and discusses the evolving role of digital asset treasuries and the impending decisions on altcoin ETFs. Host Jen Senassi and guest Alice Liu provide in-depth commentary on whether a Q4 bull run is likely and which sectors to watch.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Weekend Market Volatility and Macro Influences ([01:19]–[04:40])

• Recent Pullback and Recovery:
  Over the long weekend, crypto markets saw a sharp drop, followed by a partial recovery before another pullback. As of recording, BTC is down to $111K, global market cap sits at $3.67T, and most major asset classes (including gold and crude) are declining.
  “We had BTC bouncing back to 115k on Monday, but things started to pull back again today… the whole global market seems to be for a certain next 24 hours or so.” — Alice ([01:35])

• Global Context:
  Weakness is not isolated to crypto; U.S. equities and Asian markets are also softening, driven in part by U.S. tariffs on China and rare earth export curbs.
  "What could really impact crypto price...is the escalating US China trade disputes...should the conversation intensify, that could have a big impact on the global market side." — Alice ([02:41])

2. Key Market Catalysts: Tariffs, ETF Flows, Powell’s Upcoming Speech ([02:41]–[04:40])

• Critical Events to Watch:
  • Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the potential for further escalation.
  • ETF inflow dynamics versus profit-taking: whether ETF-driven liquidity can offset broader equity market weakness.
  • Jerome Powell’s speech—his first public remarks since the September rate cut—which may hint at the Fed’s next moves. “All eyes are on Jerome Powell’s speech in his first public appearance since the September rate cut… what people are really looking at is his comments on the job markets, on the inflation points, on the general health of the US economy at the moment.” — Alice ([03:50])

3. Whale Shorts and Technical Levels ([04:46]–[07:32])

• Notable Whale Activity:
  A high-profile wallet, known for recent big shorts, has re-entered with a 6.6x leveraged position, nearly $500M size, entry at $115k, and generated $192M profit.
  “The one ending with 3ae… put on a massive short again earlier Today. Overall the position is close to 500 million at the moment… That trade alone has already generated a massive profit for that address…” — Alice ([04:46])

• Why Whale Activity Matters:
  These positions heavily influence market psychology, causing institutions and traders to hesitate.
  “What we are seeing is all this speculative so-called insider wallets, insider short positions that are giving a big indication to the market at the moment…they are having such a strong psychological impact…” — Alice ([06:27])

• Critical Levels for BTC:
  If BTC fails to hold above key moving averages ($116–117K), or if it slips below $109K, it could trigger a sharper decline to $105K.
  "If we can't hold this 109k towards the end of the day and that could potentially trigger further downward spiral to 105k for us…” — Alice ([05:54])

4. Why Volatility Spikes on Weekends ([08:50])

• Strategic Timing:
  Major political announcements often drop late on Fridays so markets can digest during the weekend, but crypto is 24/7, leading to more pronounced moves outside regular market hours. "Trump always chickens out. That's why some of this very important sort of so-called decisions or tactics that he's releasing on Truth Social on Fridays because global markets are closed over the weekend. So he is buying in that time for the market to digest…” — Alice ([08:50])

5. BNB’s Surge and the Meme Coin Wave ([09:29]–[12:50])

• BNB’s All-Time High:
  BNB hit $1,317, flipping Blackstone’s market cap to become a top DeFi player. This is attributed to:

  • The rise of Perp DEXs like Aster, which generated huge volume leading into recent airdrops.
  • A meme coin “rush”, particularly strong on the BNB Chain and boosted by the Chinese-speaking community and internal Binance culture. “BNB has had such amazing bull run for the past two weeks…what we are seeing is a huge wave of meme rush happening on VMV chain…” — Alice ([09:48])

• Significance of the Meme Coin Comeback:
  Indicates robust retail appetite, active communities, and points to ongoing altcoin season. "Altcoin season is happening. It's unfolding in front of your eyes…what this meme rush really showed for us is the drive, the amount of capital inflows, the power, the momentum that we have in crypto has not been lost yet.” — Alice ([11:26])

• Notable Meme Coins:
  Bian Yunsheng, Ha Jimin, and others are seeing market cap spikes reminiscent of Solana’s meme rally earlier in the year.

6. Q4 Outlook and Sector Standouts ([12:50]–[14:04])

• BTC & ETH Predictions:
  BTC: $150k remains the year-end target, based on multiple technical and sentiment-driven factors.
  ETH: Uncertain due to “so many things happening”, but DeFi, perpetual DEXs, lending products, and stablecoin yields are highlighted as hot sectors.

• Altcoin Trends:
  DeFi innovation, lending, and the resurgence of meme coins and launchpads are all expected to drive altcoin outperformance into year-end. “We are scheduled for Bora in Q4…if we look at the momentum happening in meme coins… that gives me the foundation to still say we are going to have a very strong Q4.” — Alice ([12:46])

7. Digital Asset Treasuries & the Coming ETF Decisions ([14:04]–[16:46])

• Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Evolution:
  Year-end tax seasonality may now impact crypto as it does traditional assets. DATs drive trends in altcoins like Solana, BNB, and Tron, but are so far mostly industry/insider focused. “Bear in mind there is such a seasonality in traditional financial markets at the end of the year for some tax crystallization, sales and readjustments of the portfolios. So potentially that could introduce a new uncertainty or new seasonality into crypto…” — Alice ([14:29])

• What’s Next:
  SEC decisions on spot ETFs for altcoins like XRP, Solana are expected starting October 18th; the overall narrative could shift if approved. “Are we going to have a blessing from the SEC to have an altcoin ETF season—that will then further drive us forward?” — Alice ([15:55])

• DATs vs. Spot ETFs:
  DATs offer leverage and unique structuring not replicated by spot ETFs, so both can coexist, serving different institutional appetites. “With the DAT it’s always a leveraged position… just giving more route to market for the institutional investors however they want to play with the portfolio.” — Alice ([16:13])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Whale Psychological Impact:
  “What we are seeing is all this speculative so-called insider wallets… giving a big indication to the market… they are having such a strong psychological impact…” — Alice ([06:27])

• On Meme Coins as Market Signal:
  “Altcoin season is happening. It’s unfolding in front of your eyes… what this meme rush really showed for us is the drive, the amount of capital inflows.” — Alice ([11:26])

• Year-End Prediction:
  “BTC, I think for 150k, that has been our prediction based on a lot of the factors… that has not been changed despite, you know, this slight downturn that just happened.” — Alice ([13:00])

• On ETF vs. DAT Structure:
  “With the DAT it’s always a leveraged position… ETFs… just giving more route to market for the institutional investors however they want to play…” — Alice ([16:13])

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:35] Market overview & macro pullback
• [02:41] Key catalysts for near-term price action
• [04:46] Whale short wallet activity and implications
• [09:48] BNB’s bull run and meme coin resurgence
• [11:26] Meme rush as indicator of altcoin season
• [12:50] Q4 outlook, BTC and ETH predictions
• [14:29] Digital asset treasury analysis & sector impact
• [15:55] Anticipation of SEC altcoin ETF decisions
• [16:13] DATs vs. ETF narrative and coexistence

Summary Conclusion

In this episode, Jen Senassi and Alice Liu paint a complex picture of current crypto market conditions: headlines dominated by macroeconomic unpredictability, whale trading driving market psychology, and the resurgence of meme coins and altcoin cycles revitalizing sentiment. The Q4 outlook stays bullish, particularly for BTC and DeFi sectors, while all eyes now turn to Powell’s speech and regulatory decisions on altcoin ETFs. The consensus: the bull run narrative is not dead—just evolving, and savvy market participants need to stay nimble and tuned in.