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Markets Outlook
Matt Hougan: 'Solana Has One of the Best Setups for a Crypto Asset in 8 Years'
00:18:03
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- [00:00]
A
I think the wrong play for investors right now is to try to pick and choose a winner in the stablecoin and tokenization space. The right play is to invest broadly in that space and be happy whoever wins. One thing crypto loves to do is to go all in on one asset. It's always an only. Solana I think the easier play right now is just to hold both. Ethan Solana the space is big enough to accommodate two and we're talking about many trillions of dollars of market opportunity.
- [00:36]
B
Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship, freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with midnight visit midnight.network break free built for speed, scale and simplicity, Bridge helps businesses send, store, accept and launch stablecoins instantly serve global customers without navigating the complexities of setting up crypto rails. It's how companies like x Shopify and AirTM unlock new markets, reduce FX costs and move money at Internet speed. Hey everyone, I'm Jen Senasi and you're watching Markets Outlook on Coindesk today I'm joined by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan. Matt, welcome back Jen.
- [01:24]
A
Thanks for having me. I'm excited to be here.
- [01:25]
B
Of course. What a time to be here. A lot happening. You know how I like to start the show off. What are you watching lately?
- [01:32]
A
Well, it's hard not to watch prices, right? We're at all time highs on Bitcoin's price. Every other asset is pushing in that direction. So we're looking at prices, we're looking at flows, we're thinking about a lot of new ETPs to launch. It is a fun time to be in crypto right now.
- [01:47]
B
It's always a fun time to be in crypto regardless of where prices are. Matt, to talk to me a little bit about what's driving, let's start with Bitcoin and then we could talk about other assets. But what's driving this price action in Bitcoin right now?
- [02:00]
A
Yeah, I think there are two things that are going on. One is that the debasement trade has become the hottest trade on Wall Street. Right. J.P. morgan is writing about it. Everyone is suddenly concerned about fiat currencies and so they all want to get exposure to the two best plays in that space, which are Bitcoin and gold. For what it's worth, I think that fact accelerates into the end of the year, one thing people don't think of much is that when institutions and financial advisors sit down with their clients at the end of the year, they want to show them that they had the hottest trade of the year. Last year they wanted to show them that they owned Nvidia. This year they're going to want to show them that they own bitcoin and gold. And so I think that's going to drive additional interest. The second thing that's driving results is just flows into Bitcoin ETFs. We've seen $3 billion in flows in the first five trading days of October. That's nearly a record for a five day period. We think Bitcoin ETFs are going to set a record for flows in Q4. We're seeing Morgan Stanley and other wirehouses coming into the space. So I'm really excited about that. Flows in the debasement trade. Put them together. And Bitcoin's at 125 and going higher.
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B
Okay, Bitcoin at 125 and going higher. The last time I talked, I think that your prediction for the end of the year was $250,000. Is that still in play?
- [03:18]
A
$200,000? Don't, don't, don't round me up yet. We said $200,000 in December of 2024. And yes, I still think it's in play. What we will need in order for that to happen is to see this strong acceleration of ETF flows that I predict will happen. I think we could get 10 to 20 billion dollars in flows in Q4 alone if we see that. And reasonable corporate and government buying, I think 2,200 thousand is a reach, but still very much possible by the end of the year.
- [03:49]
B
I'm sorry for rounding you up there. I guess that was just wishful thinking in my head. The crypto Twitter has gotten to me.
- [03:55]
A
Hey, I take it, I take it.
- [03:58]
B
All right, that's, that's bitcoin. Now when we look at assets outside of bitcoin, they are also trending up. Is this bitcoin just pulling along the rest of the market or what's going on with some of those other assets like Solana XRP of eth, of course.
- [04:14]
A
Yeah, I don't think it's bitcoin pulling it along. In fact, based on the conversations I'm having with financial advisors and institutions, they've now realized that there are two major trades in crypto. There's bitcoin as digital gold and there's Ethereum And Solana as platform for stablecoin and tokenization. I'll say with my tradfi audience, that stablecoin and tokenization story is almost stronger than the bitcoin story alone. Certainly on a relative market cap perspective, I think we're going to see very strong flows into Ethereum ETFs. I think we may see extremely strong throws if we see Solana ETPs launch in the next few weeks, which I expect Wall street is waking up to this stablecoin and tokenization idea. I don't think it's bitcoin only. We now have two big stories in crypto and that makes the whole space much stronger.
- [05:02]
B
Stablecoin tokenization really driving the narrative. I mean, I would say that is like the breakout narrative of this year. I know that you, you recently said that Solana will become Wall Street's preferred stablecoin network. And I want to unpack that a little bit here. Because Eve had the first mover advantage, Solana had some challenges along the way. I think they've largely overcome those now. But talk to me about why Solana, in your view, becomes, you know, Wall Street's stablecoin place.
- [05:34]
A
Well, to be clear, I think both ETH and Solana are going to be extraordinarily successful. I think eth, as you mentioned, has the leading market share in stablecoins and indeed in the tokenized space, it has huge benefits from decentralization, has huge penetration and use massive developer network. I own a lot of eth and I'm very bullish on where it's going. I think what I said was Solana is the new Wall Street. By that I meant that the architecture of Solana is, is designed to facilitate, you know, sort of instant transactions in the view of the beholder. Right. Sort of settlement. Not quite settlement, but processing within 400 milliseconds, confirmation in two seconds. That is the kind of speed that Wall street needs. I think both will be successful. I think the wrong play for investors right now is to try to pick and choose a winner in the stablecoin and tokenization space. The right play is to invest broadly in that space and be happy whoever wins. One thing crypto loves to do is to go all in on one asset. It's always an only Solana. I think the easier play right now is just to hold both. Ethan Solana. The space is big enough to accommodate two and we're talking about many trillions of dollars of market opportunity. I think they'll both do really well. The thing I'd shout out for Solana is. It's tiny. Right. The thing we forget about solana is it's 1 25th the size of Bitcoin. And so even a little bit of interest in Solana from traditional investors could really increase that price. You could see a doubling or a tripling of price if it becomes a favorite asset amongst Tradfi. That does make it unique from Ethereum, which is of course about five times bigger.
- [07:14]
B
What's your price target for Solana by the end of the year?
- [07:17]
A
Yeah, it's a great question. I knew you were going to ask that. Higher. Um, I'll go with higher.
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B
All right. You, you mentioned that you think we will see Solana ETPs coming very, very soon. Talk to me a little bit more about that. When are you expecting to see them? What can, what kind of action can we see in this Lana ecosystem once those launch?
- [07:38]
A
Yeah, if you just look at the sort of calendar of, of SEC time based approvals, you would think we are a few weeks away from potentially seeing those ETPs. I think that's going to be big in a number of ways. One, it's just an access vehicle, but two, it means that firms like Bitwise and others that are launching will be out there doing meetings with people, educating them about Solana. When I look at Solana right now, I think it's one of the best setups for a crypto asset that I've seen in my eight years of being in this space full time. You have a wave of ETFs potentially launching. You have really strong treasury companies led by charismatic leaders are pushing the narrative. You have the stablecoin and tokenization play that people are very excited about. When you put those three things together against an asset that again is only a little over $100 billion in size, that's a pretty exciting setup. So I'm very optimistic for Solana for the next few months.
- [08:30]
B
That's the bull case for Solana. Are there any challenges we need to watch out for?
- [08:35]
A
Yeah, sure. It's not the dominant player in this space. Again, Ethereum has a larger market share. Some people are skeptical of it because of the meme coin overhang and the view that it's oriented around that space. You know, it has historically run into technical issues, so there are always risks in every investment. But again, in eight years I'm not sure I've seen a setup that's as clean as this and I'm really excited.
- [08:58]
B
You know, you talk about the meme coin overhang, we talk about institutional adoption. Do institutions or the more Traditional players maybe look at that meme Coin activity on Solana, that meme Coin narrative on Solana and shy away. Or is that something they've been able to overlook?
- [09:14]
A
So I think layer one thinking from institutions would do that. Layer two thinking would say that that proved that it can handle the actual throughput required to do mass tokenization on chain. So I actually find it a very useful example. And as people get their hands around that and they start to see other people embrace it, I think they'll come to that realization. A story as old as time is new technologies first being used for slightly goofy things. People criticized the Internet in the earlier days for its primary uses, but look where we are now. I think people will make that realization in Solana. So the initial response during the heart of the meme coin mania was to bucket Solana in that space. But I think people now realize that that was just a great proof case of the technology's throughput. I think it's gone from a negative to a positive, and I think Wall street will realize that as well.
- [10:35]
B
This episode is sponsored by Bridge, a stripe company. Just as the Internet made information global, stablecoins are making money global. And Bridge is the infrastructure powering that shift. Built for speed, scale and simplicity, Bridge helps businesses send, store, accept and launch stablecoins instantly serve global customers without navigating the complexities of setting up crypto rails. It's how companies like x Shopify and AirTM unlock new markets, reduce FX costs, and move money at Internet speed. Explore the future of global financial infrastructure at Bridge xyz. All right, we've talked about Bitcoin, ETH and Solana. What else are you watching? What might folks be surprised that you're looking at? What's looking good to you as we head into Q4?
- [11:18]
A
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we're very excited. We're working to get our index fund uplisted into an etp. Hopefully that will happen. I think that if it does, that will be a great tool for investors. The other place that I'm spending a lot of time thinking about is what is again the second derivative of a massive explosion in people using stablecoins and tokenized assets. And I think the answer there is defi. If you have suddenly a billion people that are familiar with wallets and how they work, what percentage of them will move into the defi category? I think a very high percentage. So I think if you look at what's going on at something like aaven with the huge spike in tvl, I think that's just A tiny down payment on where that protocol could be going. I think people haven't warmed up to how much stablecoins and tokenization will drag along the defi space given its small size. I'm very excited about that space as well.
- [12:18]
B
Well, I guess. Does that mean you see another defi summer on the horizon? Are we heading into alt season?
- [12:23]
A
I think it's like a. More like a. Whatever, a defi quadrennual. It's like a period of years for defi. I think defi, you know, will eventually be 10, 20, 30 times bigger than it is today. Again, imagine a world where a billion plus people are using crypto wallets every day for stablecoins or to access tokenized stocks. In that world, what percentage of them are borrowing, lending, staking, doing derivative work? It's not zero. And if it's 10%, that's a massive explosion of defi uses. I just think that space is, is, is lined up well for a many year bull market. It's not clear exactly which protocols, if they already exist, if or new ones will launch. But I wouldn't be short defi. If you are bullish on stablecoins and tokenization. I think that's missing the forest for the trees.
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B
I know you said you're not sure what protocols might win. You mentioned ALV there. I know that bitwise has a hype ETF in the works. Are there standout ones now that you're watching?
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A
Yeah, look, it's a network effect market, so just look at the largest ones right now those are the easiest bets to make. But it's also a very dynamic and early market. So I wouldn't by any means buy something and then go away for five years and look back and see if you got the winner. I think this is a space where you want to diversify, own maybe the five or 10 largest assets and periodically update your view. Because a hyper liquid can come out of nowhere with a great design and a great community and become systematically important. But most crypto investors burnt by the aftermath of defi summer have taken their defi allocations down to zero. I suspect that that's the wrong place to be given where this market is going.
- [14:09]
B
All right. I wanted to ask you about some news that came out this. This morning New York Stock Exchange's owner, Intercontinental Exchange is considering, it's been reported by the Wall street journal, considering a $2 billion investment in polymarket. I want to get your thoughts on that. Are you surprised?
- [14:25]
A
I am excited. Look, I think the world wants prediction markets. They're incredibly useful. They're incredibly useful for investors. We've seen how much Polymarket grew sort of with no regulatory clarity. As we move into a space where that's fully accepted, this, you know, this space could multiplied by 10, 100x. I think it's a great investment by ICE, which is a very savvy operator. Congrats to the Polymarket team. We haven't yet seen what prediction markets can do. They've been constrained not by demand but by regulatory restrictions. Those are being lifted. And so this space is going to grow dramatically in the next few years. It's a great sign for the market.
- [15:04]
B
So much dramatic growth. Matt, it just feels like we have ETFs, we have our top coins by market cap, we have DeFi now we have prediction markets that kind of bring these things together. Do you think we're growing too quickly? That was a question we asked during the last bull market and that was kind of dragged back by regulation. Is this a lot of growth really quickly?
- [15:28]
A
Well, I think it's catch up growth. Right. The thing about crypto is we had years where regulators wouldn't let us do real world applications but the infrastructure kept getting better and better and so we created this incredible highway, these incredible tools and suddenly the regulations have lifted so we can now do things. So I think what you're seeing now is sort of catch up growth for the four, five, six years where we were repressed by regulation. You know, eventually that will level off, but it's still got a long way to go. We still haven't penetrated mainstream use. I think the next few years are going to be pretty exciting.
- [16:05]
B
What if market structure doesn't pass by the end of the year? Does it slow down?
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A
Yeah, it does slow down. I actually do think that, that if I were to single out a risk to this market, that's probably the biggest risk right now. And Washington is of course closed right now, which, which is a reminder of just how dysfunctional it can be. So you can't have certainty even when there is broad support for something like the Clarity act, you can't have certainty it will get through. If it doesn't get through this year, do we get towards elections? Does it grind to a halt? You can never overestimate Washington's ability to mess things up. And I do think that that is a risk that could take some steam out of the market.
- [16:42]
B
All right, let's talk about ETFs now. I want to talk about the Bitwise 10 crypto index ETF. There was some talk about it in the summer. I know it was paused by the sec. Can you give us an update on what's going on there?
- [16:54]
A
Yeah, obviously, I can't share anything that's not publicly available, but I would just say, you know, the government is shut down right now, so the ability for things to move through the SEC is hampered. We remain optimistic about our efforts to uplist the Bitwise 10 crypto index fund into an ETF. ETP. I think it would be great for investors, but we do need Washington to get its act together and open the doors.
- [17:22]
B
I guess that's the same story with some of the other alternative ETFs that you filed for or Bitwise filed for.
- [17:29]
A
It depends on the particular channel it's going through the sec. But if there is ever a reminder that we need crypto and defi. It is a crypto company waiting on Washington to reopen so that they can consider various applications. But it does depend on the exact asset and the exact mechanism it's going through the sec. Many things are slowed down, but not everything is slowed down.
- [17:51]
B
All right, Matt, thanks so much for joining me. Always a pleasure having you on. I'm sure we'll see you again soon.
- [17:56]
A
Hey, thanks for having.