Markets Outlook: Where Retail Investors Are Chasing Momentum

Host: Jen Sanasi (CoinDesk)
Guest: Tom Bruni (Head of Markets and Retail Investor Insights, StockTwits)
Date: October 10, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the role of retail investors in the current crypto market cycle, analyzing what attracts retail attention, how traders are reacting to competing asset classes, and what it would take to get them more actively involved in crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Jen Sanasi and Tom Bruni discuss the divergence between price and social sentiment, shifting market narratives, the influence of online communities, and the lurking threat of Black Swan events as the industry looks ahead to 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Retail's Focus: Momentum and Attention ([00:00]–[02:08])

• Retail chases the intersection of price action and attention. Tom coins it "momentum"—where "attention and price momentum kind of meet. That's where retail is focused and that's what they're watching for." ([00:00] A)
• Despite Bitcoin's recent marginal highs, other major coins like Ethereum and Solana haven't seen similar breakouts, leading to some frustration and a lack of decisive market direction.
• Retail traders are temporarily shifting attention to other markets (like equities) until the crypto market shows stronger upward momentum.

2. Macro Environment and Retail Participation ([02:08]–[04:53])

• Precious metals are surging: Silver and gold ETFs are trending due to concerns over currency debasement and inflation.

• The drive for growth and anticipated stimulus from central banks is fueling aggressive bets in AI, nuclear energy, and other growth sectors.

• Tom observes that "sentiment definitely feels stretched," with short-term volatility in precious metals and risk assets after a strong run.

• Retail involvement is broader now, not just limited to tokens and exchanges. They now access crypto via ETFs, leveraged products, and options, particularly through traditional investment platforms.

  "There are so many direct ways that retail can now play crypto through their traditional brokerage accounts. Whether it be ETFs... leveraged ETFs, we've got options on those leveraged ETFs." ([04:01] A)

3. Concerns and Frustrations for Retail Traders ([04:53]–[06:17])

• The biggest concern is the lack of momentum in major coins, especially compared to outperforming equities (e.g., Nvidia, AMD, Nasdaq).

• Retail expects new highs in Bitcoin and Ethereum but remains frustrated by recent stagnation:

  "I think the biggest concern is the lack of momentum, which seems silly... but it's competing against a lot of other assets that are performing very well as well." ([04:57] A)

4. Retail Expectations for Price ([06:17]–[06:50])

• Poll results from StockTwits:

  • 50% expect Bitcoin to hit $150k in 2025
  • 18% expect $140k
  • 18% expect $130k
  • 15% think $125k (current level)

  "Retail, like I said more broadly, is looking for that further upside. It's just a matter of when, not if in their situation." ([06:21] A)

5. Social Sentiment vs. Price: A Powerful Indicator ([06:50]–[08:52])

• Tom highlights an example where social sentiment signaled a tactical buy before price action confirmed a rebound:

  "Basically bitcoin was testing the lower end of its range... sentiment had really come out of the bitcoin market... And then we saw... prices confirmed support, we had a nice reversal and then we squeezed higher to new highs over the next 14 days or so." ([07:10] A)

• Emphasizes the importance of community platforms (StockTwits, crypto Twitter) for gauging flow of attention and narrative, which can provide an edge over examining charts alone.

6. Competing Narratives and Retail Mindset ([08:52]–[11:55])

• Two main narratives dominate in 2025:

  • Institutional: ETFs, Real World Assets (RWAs)
  • Crypto-native: DeFi, AI agents, and more speculative/technical innovation

• Retail is still mostly driven by price action and speculation, not fundamental blockchain use cases:

  "Until we get kind of that ChatGPT-like moment for crypto, outside of just trading it, it's more of a conversation focused on price and in many ways speculation." ([10:25] A)

7. Coins in the Spotlight ([11:55]–[12:52])

• Top three in retail focus:

  1. Bitcoin (always a portfolio staple, even if relative weighting changes)
  2. Ethereum & Ripple (altcoins closely watched for momentum)
  3. BNB Token (recently overtook Ripple in market cap after a major rally)

  "People are still focused on the largest coins and kind of the developments happening. They're expecting the rest of the market to follow it directionally, if they get that right." ([12:02] A)

8. The Power of Community ([12:52]–[14:41])

• Projects with dedicated communities (Ripple as example) have a distinct advantage, both for token longevity and narrative strength.

• Effective direct engagement by companies (Coinbase, Robinhood, Palantir) sets the benchmark:

  "Retail has become a driving force in markets not just in the US but globally... it is critical that these projects and these companies are out there engaging with retail in a productive way." ([13:14] A)

9. Looking Ahead: Risks and Black Swan Events ([14:41]–[17:21])

• Nascent trend: Many anticipated risks (e.g., government shutdowns, macro concerns) haven't derailed markets, leading to speculation about the next possible Black Swan.

• There is a "perceived lack of risk," but traders are cautious—prepared for surprises.

• On Black Swan events:

  • Initial impact: negative for crypto and general risk assets (due to liquidation needs)
  • Longer-term: could become bullish if they prompt global stimulus

  "Short term, probably a risk, but long term, maybe a positive, depending on the policy response." ([16:28] A)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On momentum and retail focus:

  "Where attention and price momentum kind of meet. That's where retail is focused and that's what they're watching for." ([00:00] A)

• On retail access to crypto:

  "There are so many direct ways that retail can now play crypto through their traditional brokerage accounts. Whether it be ETFs... leveraged ETFs, we've got options on those leveraged ETFs." ([04:01] A)

• Frustration and expectations:

  "Despite all the fundamental reasons that we think we could probably see new highs, we're not seeing that momentum actually take place, especially over the last two months or so." ([04:57] A)

• On sentiment as a signal:

  "Sentiment is a huge part of my work and a big part of the StockTwits community and how they engage with, with markets, especially in crypto... It's about where kind of the, you know, attention, the narrative and all of that is flowing." ([07:10] A)

• On future Black Swan events:

  "People are aware of the lack of risk at the moment or the perceived lack of risk, and they're kind of keeping one foot out the door just in case they're missing something." ([14:59] A)

Key Timestamps

• [00:00] Retail's focus on "mementum" and price targets for market re-engagement
• [02:25] Effects of macro trends and growth stimulus on risk assets and crypto participation
• [04:01] How retail can access crypto via traditional finance tools
• [06:21] Retail price forecasts for Bitcoin in 2025
• [07:10] How sentiment data can precede price action
• [10:25] Retail perspective on narratives—price and speculation over tech use cases
• [12:02] Top coins by retail attention: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, BNB
• [13:14] Importance of strong, engaged online communities
• [14:59] Anticipated risks/Black Swan events and their possible effect on markets

Episode Tone

Conversational, data-driven, and reflective of retail market sentiment, with Tom providing technical insights and anecdotes while keeping the focus on real market behavior. The tone is energetic, actionable, and infused with a healthy skepticism about short-term narratives.