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- [00:00]
A
I like to call it the mementum in the market, like where attention and price momentum kind of meet. That's where retail is focused and that's what they're watching for. So I think if we could get Bitcoin to make a sustained new high above, you know, 130k and Ethereum to break above 4900, 5000, that would really reignite retail's overall bullishness on the space and get them more actively involved in the the coins themselves.
- [00:26]
B
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- [01:22]
A
Hey Jen. Great to be here. Thanks for having us.
- [01:25]
B
Great to have you here as always. In the crypto markets there is a ton to watch. Things move at lightning speed. What have you been watching lately?
- [01:33]
A
Yeah, I think the big thing everyone's been talking about is the new marginal high in Bitcoin. But we haven't quite seen the follow through in Ethereum, Solana or some of the other altcoins. So, you know, the retail audience is really focused on momentum and where the volatility is. And there's been a lot of it in the equity market. So we've actually seen people, people starting to focus elsewhere until we get this decisive breakout in crypto. And I think a lot of people were hoping bitcoin's new high would, would kind of reignite the bull market, but we haven't quite seen that. We're back into this trading range and now people are a bit frustrated, to say the least.
- [02:08]
B
You know, with a lot of the guests that come on this show, we talk about institutional demand and we haven't really talked, spoken a lot about retail demand. Retail has largely kind of been sitting out this bull cycle. I feel when I look at some of the data out there. Talk to me a little bit about what you're seeing.
- [02:26]
A
Yeah, I think this week and last week especially this morning, we had slv, the silver ETF actually trending on stock twits for the first time in a very long time in my memory. And I think this is kind of the culmination of this debasement trade that's been talked about for much of the last few weeks. And ultimately it comes down to central banks and governments around the world. They're saying there is not a lot of growth out here and need to do whatever we can to stimulate growth at the risk of further inflation. And so that's why we're seeing precious metals, gold and silver making new all time highs. We're seeing, you know, crypto assets making new highs. Many of them we're seeing, you know, longer, longer term investments in like AI and nuclear energy, things that require kind of low rates and growth to really succeed. You know, people are making very aggressive bets right now on those. And I think it's a reflection of this global liquidity that's going to need to come in to kind of stimulate the global economy and get things back on track. So I think that's kind of the broader trend that's happening. In the short term, sentiment definitely feels stretched. I think we're seeing some reversals in the precious metals market now. We're seeing risk assets come off after a, a great 10 day run. So in the short term, yes, there's volatility, but long term, I think a lot of the structural things impacting these markets are, are well intact.
- [03:46]
B
Talk to me a little bit about what it's going to take to see the same type of retail involvement and retail sentiment with SAW during the last bull cycle, I want to say it was 2021, really driven by the retail trader. What's it going to take to get back there?
- [04:02]
A
I think we're almost, I don't want to say we're there in terms of the overall sentiment being so stretched and like my grandma calling me and asking me about, you know, coin or Ethereum. But I do think the participation has kind of broadened out just beyond the tokens themselves. There are so many direct ways that retail can now play crypto through their traditional brokerage accounts. Whether it be ETFs. We've got leveraged ETFs, we've got options on those leveraged ETFs. So there are a variety of both trading and investment vehicles providing access to crypto in this market. And so I think, yes, we're not seeing maybe as many cold wallets opened or participation on exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood, et cetera. But I do think the activity levels are elevated and continue to draw in more attention, just in different areas than maybe we saw in the previous cycle.
- [04:54]
B
What are some of the concerns retail traders have right now?
- [04:58]
A
I think the biggest concern is the lack of momentum, which seems silly. I mean, I think Bitcoin's up still well into the double digits, but it's competing against a lot of other assets that are performing very well as well. We've got the Nasdaq up, you know, 40, 50% off its April lows. We've got Nvidia, AMD, a lot of these retail favorites, equities all surging. We've got crypto related proxies in the equity market, whether it be, you know, Ethereum and Bitcoin, treasury companies, the crypto miners. There's a lot of stuff working right now. And so I think there's this underlying frustration in Ethereum and Bitcoin that we're not, you know, despite all the fundamental reasons that we think we could probably see new highs, we're not seeing that momentum actually take place, especially over the last two months or so. So I think that's where people are focused again. There's a lot moving and attention is kind of, I, I like to call it the momentum in the market, like where attention and price momentum kind of meet. That's where retail is focused and that's what they're watching for. So I think if we could get Bitcoin to make a sustained new high above, you know, 130k and Ethereum to break above 4900, 5000, that would really reignite retail's overall bullishness on the space and get them more actively involved in the, the coins themselves.
- [06:17]
B
Do you think Bitcoin and ETH can reach those levels by the end of the year?
- [06:21]
A
The retail crowd certainly thinks so. We, we did a poll on stock twits and I've actually got it right here. 50% of respondents expect Bitcoin to hit 150k during 2025. 18% think 140k, 18% think 130k and then just 15% think 125k where we're at now. So retail, like I said more broadly, is looking for that further upside. It's just a matter of when, not if in their situation.
- [06:50]
B
I want to talk about the divergence between price and social sentiment and I'd love you to walk me through an example because I know you look at this very closely. Can you just talk to me about a recent example in the crypto markets where stock twit sentiment data provided a signal that maybe wasn't yet visible in a price chart?
- [07:11]
A
Yeah, I think this is a really great conversation and something I love talking about as a technician and a trader myself. So I think it was, you know, two weeks ago, basically bitcoin was testing the lower end of its range, around 107, 108,000. And as I said, there were a lot of other things happening in the market. Gold was working, different equities were working, you know, AI trades were certainly working. And so sentiment had really come out of the bitcoin market where people on stock twits, we were in a bearish range for our sentiment meter and it basically signaled like people kind of just threw in the towel. They're like, listen, everything in the market is working except bitcoin. I'm going to go focus on gold, I'm going to focus on silver, I'm going to focus elsewhere. And then we saw, you know, prices confirmed support, we had a nice reversal and then we squeezed higher to new highs over the next 14 days or so. So I think there are tactical situations where sentiment is important. I think that was a good recent example. But you know, overall there's like long term sentiment, how people are positioning, how they're feeling about the broader trends. And then there's tactical sentiment around like, okay, where are they allocating capital in the current real time market and how does that impact kind of flows and price? And so yeah, it really depends on the use case. But sentiment is a huge part of my work and a big part of the stock twits community and how they engage with, with markets, especially in crypto, right. It's all about attention. It's about where kind of the, you know, attention, the narrative and all of that is flowing. And so being on stocktwits or, you know, other verticalized platforms focused on, on markets gives you a bit of an edge over somebody who's just ignoring that entirely.
- [08:53]
B
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- [10:26]
A
Yeah, I think that's a good starting point for the conversation about what retail actually cares about in the crypto space. I think there's a lot of conversation around the underlying technology and kind of the principles of it, which I think are important and there certainly are investors who invest that way. But really when it comes down to the end user and mass adoption, it's like, what have you done for me lately in the sense of is price performing? Is it keeping up with other assets? Like, is it easy to access? And I think the big kind of turning point is going to be when, you know, somebody like Robinhood can bring the tokenized assets side of things to the US and put it in a way that is integrated with the rest of the financial picture of retail, that they'll really start to get involved there. I think ultimately the narrative around Ethereum and its real world applications is there and what's driving price. But in terms of the day to day, people are not necessarily thinking about that. They're relying on price, momentum, attention and just kind of more technical factors to navigate this market with the view that longer term all of the promises of blockchain and Bitcoin and Ethereum will come to fruition. So directionally they care about those. But I think from a day to day perspective, until we get kind of that chatgpt like moment for crypto, outside of just trading it, it's more of a conversation focused on price and in many ways speculation.
- [11:56]
B
What would you say the top three cryptos are right now if we look at where attention is focused?
- [12:02]
A
Yeah, it's a great question. Obviously Bitcoin, you know, I think regardless of how it's performing relative to altcoins, it will always be a core portion of people's portfolios. It just might shrink over time. Like I said, Ethereum and Ripple are two of the altcoins that, you know, people are watching for that confirmation of A of a new breath of momentum coming into this market. And then recently I think it was BNB Token. I think it overtook Ripple as the third largest. So that certainly has a lot, a lot of momentum and people are paying attention to how that develops. But yeah, I think there's a lot of meme coins and other stuff that moves quite frequently that gets flashes of attention here and there. But when we're talking about broader trends, people are still focused on the largest coins and kind of the developments happening. They're expecting the rest of the market to follow it directionally, if they get that right.
- [12:52]
B
BNB saw a huge rally recently. I was kind of surprised to see it surge the way it did. You know, you mentioned Ripple there. And that brings me back to the community. The Ripple community is such a, a strong one on many of the social platforms that crypto Twitter frequencies. How important is it for any of these crypto assets to have to have a community like that?
- [13:15]
A
Yeah, this is a critical part of the conversation and what we talk about frequently at StockTwits. Whether it's on the crypto side or the traditional finance side, retail has become a driving force in markets not just in the US but globally. They are no longer the secondary party that you're catering toward. They are a core portion of how you kind of get your narrative out there and how you communicate. So, yeah, it is critical that these projects and these companies are out there engaging with retail in a productive way. I think in the equity market we've seen really good examples of Coinbase, Robinhood, Palantir. These are executives that are out there engaging with retail in an active way. They're on podcasts, they're doing earnings releases that look like sports press conferences. They're really engaging with retail and answering their questions and meeting them where they are. And I think the important part is like, there will be bumps along the way in any story. There's good and bad, there's cycles. It's going to be the companies and the executives and the communities that really build a strong long term narrative and consistently communicate that to their, you know, shareholders or token holders that are going to be the ones that stick around. So yeah, I think it is critical that companies engage, whether it be on StockTwits or on any of the other platforms that people are congregating on.
- [14:42]
B
All right, I want to look ahead to 2026 right now. Beyond the popular narratives that, you know, we mentioned a few of them during our conversation. Are there any, like, nascent trends that people are starting to talk about on stocktwits, and you're starting to see something that might kind of bubble up for 20.
- [15:00]
A
I don't know if there's anything specific, but a theme that I'm seeing a lot of is there are a lot of risks or perceived risks that we've had this year that haven't really bugged the market all that much. I mean, the government shutdown is the latest one, so a lot of people are looking to what is going to be the kind of Black Swan event. And there's a lot of guesses around what that could be. Whether it be, you know, a foreign governments selling treasuries and causing a ripple effect or, you know, the dollar losing its reserve currency status. Like there are a lot of kind of macro things that people are throwing around as potential headwinds, not just for crypto, but broader risk assets in general. So I'll keep my eye out and if I see anything, I'll send you guys a note and maybe we can come back and talk about it. But yeah, people are aware of the lack of risk at the moment or the perceived lack of risk, and they're kind of keeping one foot out the door just in case they're missing something. Because there's always something. We just don't know what it is until hindsight.
- [16:00]
B
We'll definitely have to have you back as things unfold. It's always an exciting time in crypto. But I got to ask you about the, the Black Swan event that folks are maybe, you know, waiting to see what happens about everything that's happening on a geopolitical level. Because the last Black Swan event we had was COVID 19, and that ended up being good for crypto markets. How do you, how do you look at Black Swan events and how they impact the crypto markets?
- [16:28]
A
Yeah, that's a great, great question. So in the short term, I think it would be a negative for crypto. Regardless of what it is, anytime you get kind of a jump in fear, no matter what, you know, asset you're looking at, it becomes a source of liquidity. And, you know, for crypto, especially because it's 24 7, it's easily liquid. It's, it's, it's often used as a source of liquidity by both institutions and retail. So I think it would trade lower with risk assets in general. But I think longer term, right, if it is something impacting the economy and there's a need for additional stimulus to kind of buoy the economy and stimulate growth, that adds to the long term tailwind that would benefit both crypto and other risk assets. So I think it's a fine balance, but short term, probably a risk, but long term, maybe a positive, depending on the policy response.
- [17:21]
B
Tom, thanks so much for joining the show today. It was a pleasure having you on.
- [17:25]
A
Thanks so much. Really appreciate it.