Markets Outlook – Why 10x Research Sees a Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer

Podcast: Markets Outlook
Host: CoinDesk
Guest: Marcus Thielen, Founder & CEO, 10X Research
Date: February 17, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, the CoinDesk Markets Outlook segment, live from Consensus Hong Kong, examines the recent turbulence in the crypto markets. Market expert Marcus Thielen joins to explain why he and 10X Research believe Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 or even below this summer. The discussion centers on institutional behavior, liquidity traps, ETF inflows and outflows, market structure, and macroeconomic macroeconomic signals—offering both a deep breakdown of bearish technicals and a broader perspective on potential bottoming signals.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Market Sell-Off Dynamics and Recent History

[00:41–03:57]

• OG Wallets Selling vs. ETF Behavior:
  Since the summer, original crypto holders (“OG wallets”) were selling, while ETFs continued to buy. This dynamic reversed at the end of the previous year.

  “We have seen a lot of the OG wallets selling, but the ETFs were still buying. ...End of last year, that reversed.” (A, 00:41)

• Crypto Hedge Fund Redemptions:
  Many crypto hedge funds underperformed in Q4, leading to a lagged wave of redemptions. Those funds selling to meet redemptions resulted in Bitcoin trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to global markets, signaling institutional unloading.

  “Crypto hedge funds were underwater... usually means within a one to three month lag, you're going to see a lot of redemptions.” (A, 00:50) “We have seen the Coinbase premium—Bitcoin trades at a discount—so institutional investors were selling.” (A, 01:16)

• ETF Inflows Stalling:
  Hopes for renewed ETF inflows at the start of the year fizzled, with only two days of inflows before a rapid return to outflows, intensifying bearish imbalance.

  “ETFs had two days of inflows, and then, bang: outflows again. That really brought the imbalance back to the negative side.” (A, 01:41)

• Stronger US Economic Data and Fed Dynamics:
  Positive US economic data (e.g., ISM Manufacturing above 50) led investors to anticipate fewer rate cuts. Historically, Bitcoin surged with unexpected rate cuts, but absent this, crypto’s upside was capped.

  “With stronger economic data, that means less rate cuts. ...When the Fed unexpectedly cut..., Bitcoin had a big push up. But that isn’t the case anymore.” (A, 02:19)

Technical and Structural Risks

[02:45–03:57]

• Liquidity Gaps and Downward Momentum:
  The November 2024 Trump election victory saw a rapid price surge from $70,000 to $90,000, creating a “liquidity gap”—very little trading happened in that move, setting up a dangerous lack of support during corrections.

  “When Trump was elected...Bitcoin ramped up from $70k to $90k within 10–12 days. ...There was a big gap, a big liquidity gap.” (A, 02:54)

• Gamma-Driven Liquidations and Trend Reversals:
  Option market dynamics (“negative gamma”) forced market makers to sell more futures as Bitcoin fell toward $60,000, intensifying the downward move.

  “At $75,000, there was negative option gamma...market makers needed to hedge...with the last negative gamma hitting at $60,000.” (A, 03:13)

• No Real Buying, Trend Funds Turning Bearish:
  With trend-following funds signaling negative, and with a still-long market, Thielen expects more forced selling ahead, arguing that such cascading liquidations suggest the start—not end—of the downtrend.

  “Usually when you see cascading liquidations, it’s not the end of the downtrend. It’s actually the beginning.” (A, 03:41)

Why a Drop to $50,000 is Likely

[04:11–07:51]

• EC Market Cycles and Technical Patterns:
  Thielen draws a parallel to prior midterm election cycles, highlighting prolonged corrections (“60% correction” scenario). He now believes the “B wave” in the ongoing correction is transitioning to a final “C wave” down.

  “We laid out... a 60% correction, which sounded pretty crazy...but we dropped 58% so far.” (A, 04:32) “We think we’re still in this B wave right now, which turns into a C wave.” (A, 04:41)

• Possible Bottoming Around FIFA World Cup (Summer):
  Best-case timeline for bottoming is April, with a more likely bottom during the “FIFA World Cup”—a.k.a. summer 2026.

  “Probably during the soccer FIFA World Cup we might bottom out then...Earliest is probably April.” (A, 04:51)

• Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair – Market Dovishness?
  Some hope remains for a bounce if the new Fed chair (Kevin Warsh) turns out more dovish than priced in during confirmation hearings. But Thielen maintains the probability is still high for a move down to $50,000.

  “Maybe [Kevin Warsh] is going to come out and be dovish, and maybe then we’ll rebound. But I think probability is still high that we go to this $50,000.” (A, 05:09)

• Debunking the “Single Asian Fund” Theory:
  Contrary to rumors, Thielen sees recent liquidations as market-wide, not the result of a single large fund blowing up. He references data from Hyper Liquid, noting that liquidation events were highly distributed.

  “It’s not just one entity got liquidated...it’s more like the broader market.” (A, 05:23) “It’s really unfortunately...ETFs...bought around $54 billion...with an average price of $90,000. They are like underwater by $10 billion...but literally $30 billion too long right now.” (A, 06:25)

• Institutional Exposure and Unwinds:
  ETF holders are “still long” to the tune of $30 billion more than when they started; risk remains for further institutional unwinding, especially as “crypto natives” have already largely liquidated.

  “ETF holders are literally $30 billion too long right now. That’s still, I think, a lot of head scratching where people may need to adjust positions. That is still the risk for the summer.” (A, 06:37)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Usually when you see cascading liquidations, it’s not the end of the downtrend. It’s actually the beginning.”
  — Marcus Thielen [03:41]

• “We think we’re still in this B wave right now, which turns into a C wave. ...Earliest [bottom] is probably April...probably during the FIFA World Cup.”
  — Marcus Thielen [04:41]

• “It’s not just one entity got liquidated...it’s more like the broader market....So it’s not like one entity. That’s why we also have not heard from one specific entity going under on October 10th because it was spread among many entities.”
  — Marcus Thielen [05:23]

• “ETFs...bought around 54 billion US dollars...with an average price of 90,000. ...they are literally 30 billion too long right now.”
  — Marcus Thielen [06:25]

Key Timestamps

• 00:41: Market background: Institutional and ETF selling, Q4 hedge fund redemptions
• 01:41: ETF inflows/outflows and impact on market balance
• 02:19: Impact of US economic data and Federal Reserve expectations
• 02:54: Liquidity gap since Trump election & downstream impact
• 03:13: Gamma-driven liquidations and technical selling
• 03:41: The psychology of cascading liquidations and ongoing risk
• 04:32: Recalling earlier bearish 60% correction call; market structure parallels
• 04:51: Potential bottoming timelines (April or summer FIFA World Cup)
• 05:23: Debunking “single Asian fund” liquidation rumor; market-wide risk
• 06:25: ETF positioning and risks of further institutional unwinding

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a practical, data-driven tone, focused on analyzing past events and projecting near-term risks. The style is authoritative but accessible, as both the host and Marcus Thielen aim to distill complex market structures into actionable insights for a broad audience.

In summary: Marcus Thielen of 10X Research delivers a detailed, bearish outlook for Bitcoin through Summer 2026—predicting a move down to $50,000 (or lower) as ETF holders unwind large positions, liquidity gaps expose weak support, and cascading liquidations point to an ongoing downtrend. He debunks the theory of a single large player precipitating the decline, instead highlighting structural market imbalances as the main risk factor.