Podcast Summary: Why 2026 Could Bring a Bear Market | Markets Outlook (CoinDesk)

Date Aired: December 1, 2025
Host: Jen Senassi (CoinDesk)
Guest: Marcus Thielen (Founder, 10X Research)

Episode Overview

This episode of Markets Outlook offers a comprehensive recap of crypto market events in 2025 and deep dives into projections for 2026. Marcus Thielen shares his views on the cyclicality of crypto, institutional investor behavior, the impact of U.S. monetary policy, and why he expects 2026 could bring a prolonged bear market. The discussion also critiques narratives around ETFs, compares Bitcoin to gold, examines inflows and outflows across various digital assets, and questions popular bullish price targets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Review: 2025's Defining Moments (01:34–02:40)

• Major Events:
  • Trump Inauguration & "Trump Coin":
    • The mass listing of "Trump Coin" near its price peak provided "massive exit liquidity" and dented market sentiment.

      "The Trump coin really near the top, provided really massive exit liquidity. I think that had a massive negative impact on the sentiment." — Marcus Thielen (01:43)

  • Technical Downturns:
    • In early 2025, Bitcoin moved into a “descending wedge” and sentiment soured, before a technical rebound.
  • OG Selling:
    • Initially large-scale selling by original “mega-whale” holders, later shifting to newer whales and institutions.

2. From OG Dumping to Whale Accumulation (02:40–05:58)

• Shift in Market Structure:
  • Large OG wallets (>1,000 BTC) distributed to newer whale wallets (100–1,000 BTC), typically ETF and institutional buyers.
• ETF Buyers Turn Sellers:
  • After Fed Chair Powell's hawkish tone in October (no rate cut), ETF holders shifted from net buyers to net sellers.

    "Of the 14 trading days following the FOMC meeting, we have already seen US$4 billion of outflows." — Marcus Thielen (04:58)

• Institutional Fatigue:
  • Institutions, with $24bn in BTC and $10bn in ETH bought year-to-date, facing pressure as positions remain underwater.

3. Institutional Flows & Market Risks (05:58–07:57)

• Likelihood of Institutional Re-entry:
  • Institutions unlikely to increase exposure unless the Fed becomes overtly dovish, or until after January’s FOMC.
  • "It's not really that you need to bargain hunt Bitcoin here as long as the Fed is not really dovish." (06:36)
• Recent Volatility:
  • October 10th saw BTC drop $20,000 in a day (from 122k to 102k), illustrating the risks without circuit breakers.

4. Performance & Outlook for Altcoin/ETF Products (07:57–09:13)

• SOUL & XRP ETFs:
  • Despite strong debut trading volumes, price action in underlying tokens underwhelmed post-launch.
• General Altcoin ETF Sentiment:
  • Thielen is skeptical about lasting institutional engagement with altcoin ETFs, citing weak narratives and limited inflows.

    "Institutions are not buying those. Institutions getting the narrative...of Bitcoin as digital gold, but not on the other value propositions." (08:57)

5. Bitcoin vs. Gold: Shifting Narratives (09:13–12:42)

• Narrative Divergence:
  • Bitcoin positioned as digital gold—but Thielen distinguishes between liquidity drivers for each.
  • Gold responds more to anti-USD movements (rate cuts), while Bitcoin is driven by actual inflows and market liquidity.

    "Bitcoin is more dependent on actual money flow... What’s more important is actual inflows through stablecoins, liquidity in the market, futures open interest…” (11:52)

• Narrative Stickiness:
  • Institutional buyers, especially BlackRock, emphasize the “digital gold” angle for Bitcoin, but not for altcoins.

6. End-of-Year Price Projections & Critique of Mega-Bullish Calls

(13:28–16:51)

• 2025 End-of-Year Price Target:
  • 10X Research was “most conservative,” targeting $140k for BTC while others projected $200k+. Thielen doubts even $140k is likely without substantial new capital inflows.

    "It takes so much capital of net inflow really…we probably struggle here further into year end." (13:46)

• Ethereum Skepticism:
  • Big buyers like Bitmine propped up ETH only briefly; the broader institutional and retail narrative hasn’t materialized.

    "The narrative is also a little bit flawed…Ethereum is currently not, you know, widely used for DeFi applications or anything." (14:53)

• Yield Generation:
  • With waning retail exuberance, digital asset companies are pivoting to more traditional, yield-focused strategies.

7. 2026 Outlook & Bear Market Warning (16:51–20:18)

• Bearish Macro & On-Chain Indicators:
  • 2026 is a U.S. midterm year—historically weak for stocks and, according to Thielen, often catastrophic for BTC (-60% avg).

    "That’s usually where the S&P doesn’t do...a whole lot until really just shortly before. But it also coincided with the last three major bear markets for Bitcoin." (17:08)

  • Key technical signals (MVRV, futures open interest) turned negative since October.
• Underwater Whale Risk:
  • New whale wallets, now down 10–20%, may be forced to exit, compounding pressure.
• IPO Disappointment:
  • Recent crypto IPOs (mostly exchanges) failed to ignite retail enthusiasm or broader rally.

8. Regulatory Hopes vs. Market Reality (20:18–22:00)

• Market Structure Bill:
  • Thielen is unconvinced that a new U.S. market structure law will trigger capital inflows or narrative excitement.

    "I personally don’t think that the market structure bill is going to be…such a momentum [driver] where a lot of retail investors or institutional investors allocate capital." (20:37)

• What Does the Market Need?
  • Genuine new narratives or company stories (major IPOs) to create excitement; legislation alone is insufficient.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the relentless churn of crypto markets:
  "Crypto is never boring and I think that's really exciting."
  — Marcus Thielen (02:20)

• On the fragility of the institutional ETF trade:
  "Investors probably have decided, you know, we are overexposed in Bitcoin. ETFs have bought around US$24 billion worth of Bitcoin year to date…it's not making any return."
  — Marcus Thielen (05:11)

• On the 'digital gold' narrative and its limits:
  "Bitcoin…has become digital gold…because the block space…cannot really be used as a payment system. So it's definitely only a storage system."
  — Marcus Thielen (09:28)

• On 2026's risks:
  "There is a real possibility that we are entering a longer-term bear market unfortunately…US stocks tend to perform quite poorly during midterm elections…Bitcoin has tended to go down by around 60%."
  — Marcus Thielen (16:56–17:22)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:43] — Trump coin and 2025’s wild ride
• [02:52] — Market structure: OG sellers, whales, ETFs
• [04:58] — Post-FOMC shift: ETF outflows and sentiment
• [07:57] — Altcoin ETF launches and price action
• [09:24] — Bitcoin as digital gold vs. gold
• [13:28] — Price projections and bullish calls revisited
• [16:56] — 2026 bear market outlook and institutional exhaustion
• [20:18] — Regulatory optimism vs. market reality

Final Thoughts

Thielen delivers a sober, data-backed warning: despite past narratives and regulatory hopes, crypto is entering a phase of consolidation and risk. With institutional investors fatigued, ETF flows reversing, technicals weakening, and little narrative fuel, he cautions that unless significant new capital or excitement enters the space, 2026 could be a grinding, structural bear market.

Tone: Analytical, direct, occasionally wry—Thielen is cautious but grounded; Jen Senassi guides the discussion with clear, targeted questions.