Markets Outlook – Why Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Will Reach $750K by 2027
Podcast: Markets Outlook
Host: CoinDesk
Guest: Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder, Maelstrom CIO & co-founder)
Date: December 23, 2025
Episode Overview
In this episode, CoinDesk’s Markets Outlook sits down with Arthur Hayes, renowned crypto figure and BitMEX co-founder, to discuss his famously bullish stance on Bitcoin, reactions to the recent Zcash explosion, the evolving dynamics of altcoins and stablecoins, and macroeconomic forces shaping the future of crypto. Hayes shares his unfiltered perspectives on market trends, government policy, and the ongoing transformation of digital finance, offering predictions and hard-hitting commentary.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Arthur Hayes on Influence, Public Disagreements, and Crypto Culture
- Arthur Hayes reflects on the attention he commands within the industry, emphasizing that disagreement is part of the fun and culture of crypto.
- Quote: “I think I like that people disagree with me. So I always have a good time scrolling through my X feed and like, you know … it makes it a lot of fun to be in these crypto markets because it’s this game that we’re all playing together.” – Arthur Hayes [01:03]
- The Zcash debate and volatility this year exemplified the passionate, tribal nature of crypto communities.
- Hayes notes the importance of strong opinions and lively debates about privacy, technology, and narratives within the space.
The Zcash Revival: Privacy, Technology and Narrative (Q4 2025)
- Major resurgence in Zcash value, fueled by its privacy narrative and improvements in technology.
- Hayes recounts the protocol’s early issues (“trusted setup,” uneven supply, 20% founder rewards) have largely evaporated over 8-9 years.
- Quote: “There’s a healthy supply because there has been eight or nine years of mining … upgrades of the protocol have removed the trusted setup. … the price is down, you know, 99% from the highs … it was a perfect moment for Zcash to have a sort of resurgence.” – Arthur Hayes [03:42]
- Hayes credits high-profile personalities (Naval, Mert) with rekindling interest, linking the shift to a growing disillusionment with crypto’s corporatization and longing for core principles: privacy and sovereignty.
- Quote: “No one’s talking about actually using any of this technology, but why it actually became popular in the first place, self sovereignty of your financial situation. … That’s what gave, you know, people like Naval and Mert the confidence to sort of start banging the drum…” [04:33]
How High Can Zcash Go? Hayes’s Market Model
- Hayes believes Zcash could reach 10–20% of Bitcoin’s value by the end of the cycle.
- Quote: “My mental model is that Zcash goes to 10 to 20% of the value of Bitcoin by the end of this particular cycle. … It’s nice to have Bitcoin with complete privacy, if you believe the technical developments and the cryptography of Zcash. And so that’s why I own a lot of it.” [05:00]
- He urges holders to self-custody and actively use shielded addresses for privacy and to further support the asset’s narrative.
- Quote: “If you’re holding zcash because you want the price to go up, but you’re holding on a centralized exchange that only allows transparent addresses, then you’re kind of yourself. … Do the work.” [05:47]
Hayes’s Top Crypto Investments of 2025
- Best investment: Zcash
- Second best: Hyper Liquid
- Third best: Athena
- Notably, Hayes (through Maelstrom) holds large positions and expects huge upside if these assets pump. [07:17–07:32]
2026–2027 Market Predictions: Politics, Policy, and Bitcoin’s Outlook
- US elections (2026), political “goodies” (stimulus/handouts) from both parties, and never-ending deficit spending will drive markets.
- “Printing money” is the bipartisan default; regardless of who wins, Bitcoin stands to benefit.
- Quote: “It doesn’t matter who wins because both sides promise goodies, right? … Goodies are paid for with printed money. … Therefore bitcoin benefits.” [08:19]
- Election-year dynamics and deficits in the $2.2–2.5 trillion range, limited foreign appetite for treasuries, and the need for the Fed to conduct “stealth” QE will buoy Bitcoin.
- Quote: “If the deficit and the financing of the deficit by the treasury and the Fed was what drove Bitcoin higher and crypto higher … that situation is going to persist and only get worse.” [10:50]
Money Printing and Bitcoin’s Trajectory — The “Hallelujah” Thesis
- Hayes summarizes his thesis: government spending and deficits force the Fed to create new liquidity, pushing risk assets (especially Bitcoin) higher.
- Quote: “If the politicians are not going to spend less money, then the Fed and the treasury have to print it. … You tell me how much money the US government’s going to print, I’ll give you an estimation of how bullish I am.” [11:23]
- Links the magnitude of deficits ($2T+/year) to the argument for Bitcoin’s ascent: “Bitcoin and crypto are going much higher.” [11:46]
Is a Soaring Bitcoin Price a Warning Sign?
- Addresses the view that $1M Bitcoin may signal economic distress.
- Quote: “I don’t know if there’s going to be a problem per se, just purchasing power will be diminished. … Not necessarily mean there’s going to be some sort of, like, societal breakdown just because bitcoin’s at a million dollars.” [12:13]
Price Targets: Where is Bitcoin Heading?
- Hayes is adamant about his bullish predictions:
- 2025: $250K Bitcoin by end of year
- “I’m sticking with it. I think I said $250,000 bitcoin and I am going to stick with that until December 31, 11:59.” [13:07]
- 2026–2027: $500–750K Bitcoin
- “I think we’ll be, you know, 500 to 750,000 Bitcoin. I think 2026 and 2027, this is the meat of the money printing.” [13:30]
- 2025: $250K Bitcoin by end of year
Industry Trends to Watch: Stablecoins and Mainstream Crypto Adoption
- Predicts the rapid rise of bank-issued stablecoins; traditional finance (TradFi) incumbents will launch their own digital currencies in the next 12 months, accelerating adoption.
- Quote: “All the G-SIBs … are getting together and they're going to launch their own stablecoin. … These are the sorts of things that are really going to accelerate adoption of crypto…” [13:57]
- Everyday financial life will blend seamlessly with digital assets as wallet usage normalizes.
- Quote: “How do we get people to transition to … this whole other ecosystem that's not connected to the banks … now I've got my dollar, my yen, my euro, my bitcoin, my ethereum, whatever. It's all over on the Internet.” [14:45]
Biggest Challenges: Managing Expectations & Adapting to Change
- Warns against nostalgia for past “altcoin seasons”; new dynamics mean targeted bets outperform scattergun speculation.
- Quote: “Just because you thought that … you’re just going to spray and pray on some dog shit shitcoin and it’s going to go up 10x just because it’s called an altcoin. Well, I’m sorry, the game changed, right? So you need to adapt.” [15:30]
The Industry’s Biggest Win: Resilience & Functionality
- Cites crypto’s robust reliability despite global market shocks; blockchains did their job, no bailouts, systems worked as designed.
- Quote: “The blockchains work, right? Bitcoin blockchain works. Ethereum works. We continue to produce blocks. It’s immutable. It works. We had Liberation day in the U.S., risk off around the world, markets crashing, crypto is fine. No bailouts, all that kind of stuff. So I think we had a good year. The stuff worked just as it worked every other year.” [16:36]
Notable Quotes & Key Timestamps
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote/Context | |---------------|-------------|------------------| | 01:03 | Hayes | “I like that people disagree with me … It makes it a lot of fun to be in these crypto markets …” | | 03:42 | Hayes | “The upgrades of the protocol have removed the trusted setup … It was a perfect moment for Zcash to have a sort of resurgence.” | | 04:33 | Hayes | “No one’s talking about actually using any of this technology, but why it actually became popular in the first place … self sovereignty of your financial situation.” | | 05:00 | Hayes | “My mental model is that Zcash goes to 10 to 20% of the value of Bitcoin by the end of this particular cycle.” | | 05:47 | Hayes | “If you’re holding zcash because you want the price to go up, but you’re holding on a centralized exchange that only allows transparent addresses, then you’re kind of yourself. … Do the work.” | | 08:19 | Hayes | “Goodies are paid for with printed money. It’s not paid for with increases in taxes … Therefore bitcoin benefits.” | | 11:23 | Hayes | “If the politicians are not going to spend less money, then the Fed and the treasury have to print it.” | | 13:07 | Hayes | “I’m sticking with it. I think I said $250,000 bitcoin and I am going to stick with that until December 31, 11:59.” | | 13:30 | Hayes | “I think we’ll be, you know, 500 to 750,000 Bitcoin. I think 2026 and 2027, this is the meat of the money printing.” | | 13:57 | Hayes | “All the G-SIBs … are getting together and they're going to launch their own stablecoin.” | | 15:30 | Hayes | “Well, I’m sorry, the game changed, right? So you need to adapt.” | | 16:36 | Hayes | “The blockchains work, right? … So I think we had a good year. The stuff worked just as it worked every other year.” |
Important Segments & Timestamps
- [01:03] Arthur Hayes on his polarizing influence & crypto debate culture
- [02:36–05:36] Zcash’s comeback: technical improvements and rehabbed narrative
- [07:17–07:39] Best investments of 2025 & shifts in strategy for 2026
- [08:00–11:55] Political cycles, deficit spending, and the Fed’s “stealth QE”
- [12:13–13:30] Risks & implications of skyrocketing Bitcoin; price targets
- [13:57–15:24] Stablecoins, TradFi adoption, and the coming sea-change in wallets
- [15:30–16:36] Changing dynamics of altcoins, adapting to new realities
- [16:36] Industry’s greatest win: system resilience amid turbulence
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes brings his trademark unapologetic energy to this wide-ranging conversation, laying out forceful arguments for major crypto assets and the macro trends that make Bitcoin’s meteoric rise – perhaps to $750K by 2027 – not just possible but likely. Grounded in a deep awareness of policy, history, and trading realities, his perspective offers both optimism and caution, with a clear call to adapt to the market’s ever-evolving logic. For anyone trying to make sense of the next crypto cycle, this episode is essential listening.