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- [00:00]
A
I'm. I'm sticking with it. I think I said $250,000 bitcoin, and I am going to stick with that until December 31, 1159.
- [00:16]
B
Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with midnight. Visit midnight.networkbreak free. BitMEX co founder and Maelstrom CIO and co founder Arthur Hayes has been named one of CoinDesk's 50 most influential people this year because, simply put, when he talks, people listen. He joins me now. Arthur, congratulations.
- [00:51]
A
Yay. Thank you.
- [00:54]
B
All right, well, you know, when you talk, the whole crypto industry listens. What does it feel like for you to have so much power?
- [01:03]
A
I don't know how much power I have. It's great to, you know, people listen to what I say. I think I like that people disagree with me. So I, I always have a good time scrolling through my X feed and like, you know, the people who say it's great, or people say that's complete. It's, you know, it's great. So I like the feedback and it makes it a lot of fun to be in these crypto markets because it's this game that we're all playing together. And, you know, some people like me, some people don't. I have a good time.
- [01:29]
B
That's how you know you're. You're doing something right. Arthur, if. If you reflect on 2025 and you think about the back and forth, maybe the spats you've gotten into on X, is there one that stands out?
- [01:42]
A
I think obviously everything currently is more top of mind. So I think the zcash people love it, people hate it. I think it's a great sort of emotional roller coaster ride of trading, and probably that's why there's a lot of trading activity on that particular coin. So there's a lot of strongly held beliefs around bitcoin privacy, that sort of stuff. And it's all coalescing on sort of X and people thinking, Zach's going to go to the moon, and people think, oh, that's a zero. It's just a CIA or a Mossad plant or whatever it is. So I think it's fun. I like it.
- [02:18]
B
Zcash really popped off in Q4 this year after really not doing anything for so long on those two narratives. Right Privacy and Bitcoin. Talk to me a little bit about what you've been watching when it comes to zcash. Why do you think now was the time for it to pop off on those two narratives that have been around for a while?
- [02:36]
A
So I've known Zcash since it started back in 2016. BitMEX was the first place to list a futures contract on Zcash before for main that launched. I believe it was December of 2016 when it happened. So I remember being deep in the woods on how they were constructing the privacy and all that sort of things. And there were some issues back then. The trusted setup, the fact that there wasn't a lot of supply, given that it was a mining reward style sort of launch, the 20% that went to the Zcash founding team, these are all things that people cited as issues about the protocol. And obviously the biggest one was there wasn't very many people using the shielded transactions as a percentage of circulating supply. So fast forward whatever you now like almost nine years, eight, nine years later and a lot of those things have sort of evaporated. There is a healthy supply because there has been, you know, eight or nine years of mining of zcash. The upgrades of the protocol have removed the trusted setup. And I believe that the 20% subsidy or payout going to the founding team, that's also been fed phased out as well. And the price is down, you know, 99% from the highs that it reached in late 2016, early 2017. And so I think it was a perfect moment for zcash to have a sort of resurgence. Especially when you consider that I think a lot of bitcoin Maxis or you know, crypto enthusiasts on the retail side are a bit saddened that in what they believe, crypto's become just another tradfi asset class. Every other news article is, you know, regulation XYZ bank is adopting ETFs are accumulating. No one's talking about actually using any of this technology, but why it actually became popular in the first place, self sovereignty of your financial situation. And I think the CCASH narrative and the improvements in the underlying technology, that's what gave, you know, people like Naval and MERT the confidence to sort of start banging the drum like now is the time for zcash Obviously wasn't one of the first people to sort of catch on to this last wave from what, like $25 to 750. I was a bit later naval shield me at a dinner during token. I was like, okay, fuck it I get it. I mean I've, I understand because I've been in the trenches with zcash back in when it started and then I started buying a bunch zcash.
- [04:55]
B
I mean, at the time that we're recording this video is at $530. Where do you think it goes from here?
- [05:01]
A
My mental model is that Zcash goes to 10 to 20% of the value of Bitcoin by the end of this particular cycle. And I basically view it as okay. I don't think zcash is going to eclipse the value of Bitcoin, but it's nice to have Bitcoin with complete privacy, if you believe the technical developments and the cryptography of zcash. And so that's why I own a lot of it.
- [05:27]
B
You tweeted that people who hold zcash on a centralized exchange should withdraw and hold in a self custodial wallet. Tell me, tell me more about what was behind that.
- [05:37]
A
So one of the big narratives is why is zcash started pumping? It's because the amount, the percentage of shielded transactions has risen markedly. So I think it's something around 25 or 30% of the circulating supply of Zcash is shielded. And that's a positive narrative for, okay, the more shielded, the bigger the supply of shielded zcash, the more robust the privacy. And if the privacy is robust, then we invest in it because that's why it goes up in price. So if you're holding zcash because you want the price to go up, but you're holding on a centralized exchange that only allows transparent addresses, then you're kind of yourself. So do the work. Figure out a wallet that makes sense for you, figure out a security mechanism and protocol that makes sense for you, and remove your money from a centralized exchange and support the narrative that is the reason why you bought the thing in the first place. So I think that's. People need to recognize why are we doing all these things if not to have security and privacy and self sovereignty. So actually put it in action and help contribute to the percentage of shielded zcash which makes the price go up and you richer in that respect as well.
- [07:14]
B
What was your best investment of 2025?
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A
Zcash.
- [07:19]
B
Zcash. All right. Second best.
- [07:24]
A
Hyper liquid.
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B
I knew you were going to say hyper liquid. All right, third. Third. Let's go third.
- [07:31]
A
Third. Athena.
- [07:33]
B
Okay, moving into 2026, would you call those the top three assets you're watching or are those different?
- [07:40]
A
Well, Maelstrom, as one of an early advisor, we have A large position in liquid and unliquid illiquid Athena. So it's our largest position in terms of our shitcoin bags. So obviously, you know, if Athena pumps to 1, 2, 3, 4 or $5, that'll drive our entire year's return just big. It is on our, on our books. Other than that, I, I'm not sure what's going to be the dominant narrative in, in 2026. I think that Bitcoin and Ethereum will do very, very well as liquidity improves and at least United States and you know, maybe China will follow suit as well. The US has an election coming up. It's time for both political parties to hand out goodies, especially the Republicans. They're the ones who, I think the poly market puts their odds something at losing the House at some like 60% or something that I don't know what it is now, but it's over 50%. The market expects the, the Democrats to take the House. I don't know about the Senate. I haven't looked at the odds. But the only thing that's going to stop that from happening is Trump and his administration just give out a lot of money, print it, give the goodies out to their supporters so they show up at the polls in November. Doesn't matter who wins because both sides promise goodies, right? The Republicans promise goodies, the Democrats promise goodies. Goodies are paid for with printed money. It's not paid for with increases in taxes to a large extent. And so therefore bitcoin benefits. Obviously, if you're a stock picker, it really matters who wins, right? Democrats like climate activism, social justice, these types of things. Republicans like drill baby, drill AI, all those sorts of things. And so picking a stock that benefits and one of those buckets, you know, really depends on politics. I have no idea. I'll just stick with Bitcoin doesn't really care who wins in November because the up the they are both going to print money. And I think that Trump knows that odds on favorite, they're going to lose. He's going to have to accelerate the money printer and make sure that all the relevant government appointees get in before a possible Democratic Senate and they just basically stonewall him for the next two years and don't allow any of his appointees to get confirmed.
- [09:52]
B
Tell me a little bit more about that. I know that one of your recent newsletters talks a little bit about this. It's called Hallelujah. You argue that massive government spending is forcing the Fed into stealth quantitative easing. Just talk to me about what that means and what it means for markets.
- [10:07]
A
The US treasury publishes a thing called the Quarterly Refunding Announcement. And if you're a serious crypto trader, I think you should make sure you read that four times a year. The most recent one came out I think the third or fourth of November. And for the fiscal year 2025, which ends in end of September, third quarter of September, the U.S. federal deficit was something like $2.3 trillion, right? And so then that was what happened. We care about what's going to happen. The relevant either the banks, the government itself, they all estimate that the 26th and 27th fiscal years will be in the range of 2.2 to $2.5 trillion deficits. So if the deficit and the financing of the deficit by the treasury and the Fed was what drove Bitcoin higher and crypto higher, at least in a dollar liquidity context, that situation is going to persist and only get worse because central banks, at least non US central banks, are buying less and less US Treasuries. I think there's a chart going around that shows a percentage of gold as a reserve asset of non US central banks is higher than Treasuries for the first time in a long time. And so without these foreigners buying this debt relies on the US government to print the money in some way, shape or form. There's lots of different games that it could play and you can get it to the minutiae about how the money markets work, but from a high level it doesn't really matter. If the politicians are not going to spend less money, then the Fed and the treasury have to print it. So you tell me how much money that the US government's going to print, I'll tell you where bitcoin is or give you an estimation of how bullish I am. And if they're going to 2 trillion plus deficits and it could get worse if there's a recession or war or what have you, then bitcoin and crypto are going much higher.
- [11:55]
B
Mike Novogratz said in an interview recently, if bitcoin hits a million dollars anytime soon, it's actually going to be very worrisome for the US economy. It sounds like you are right along those same lines of thinking. If bitcoin kind of goes to the moon within the next year, we have bigger fish to fry.
- [12:14]
A
I mean, I don't know if there's going to be a problem per se, just purchasing power will be diminished. It really depends on social cohesion within the United States and How people handle that and what percentage of the population owned the asset? That went up a lot and which percentage didn't. Do food prices go up a lot? I don't know. Do rent, all the different things that the majority of people care about, Maybe nothing. There is no inflation in food and it's just the, the bitcoin financial asset goes up. I, I don't know. So not necessarily mean there's going to be some sort of, like, societal breakdown just because bitcoin's at a million dollars. I mean, it'd be different if you said that inflation's going to concentrate on beef and a pound of beef is going to be $150 right there. Probably a revolution in the United States if that happened.
- [12:57]
B
I think the last time you and I spoke, you said that bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of the year. Do you still hold that projection?
- [13:07]
A
I'm sticking with it. I think I said $250,000 bitcoin and I am going to stick with that until December 31, 1159.
- [13:17]
B
Pardon me. I tried to make it a little better for you there, Arthur. I tried to say it was 200,000, knock 50 grand off, but you're sticking with the 250. By, by the end of 2026. What do you think?
- [13:31]
A
I think we're be, you know, 500 to 750,000 Bitcoin. I think 2026 and 2027, this is the meat of the money printing. The Trump administration is going to do what they know how to do best, what every government knows how to do best. When in doubt, print the money. If the people are unhappy, print the money and hand them a goodie and they're going to show up at the polls and hopefully vote for you.
- [13:51]
B
What do you think the biggest trend of 2026 is going to be? When you look at the crypto industry.
- [13:58]
A
I think stable coins are still going to be a massive trend. I was speaking with a, you know, digital asset head of a large tradfi bank, and he was telling me that all the G sibs, the globally significant banks around the world, are getting together and they're going to launch their own stablecoin, right? And so I think that'll be a big deal. And he said it's, you know, they're working very, very quickly to get something out there, you know, maybe next six to 12 months. So I think these are the sorts of things that are really going to accelerate adoption of crypto and get people understanding how a wallet works. Right now. We all understand how online baking works, right? I think even in my mom could probably use an online baking app and that, that takes a lot of learning for people to, you know, I'm not going to go to the branch, I'm going to, you know, get on this phone and there's not going to be a human talking to me and I do all these things on my phone, which is not how you've been doing baking for the last, you know, 500 years. So how do we get people to transition to, okay, now I'm not going to go to the branch and now what is a bank? I don't even know. I guess have this dollar yen, euro yuan digital thing and I move it around and there's this whole other ecosystem that's not connected to the banks and there's all these other products that I can use and trade with and literally I just taps on my phone and now I've got my dollar, my yen, my euro, my bitcoin, my ethereum, whatever. It's all over on the Internet. And so this is really the explosion of defi. Everyday person has been habitualized to using these digital assets.
- [15:25]
B
From where you sit, what's the biggest challenge for the industry that's still ahead?
- [15:31]
A
Biggest challenge? I think people need to be patient. People need to not expect the present to be like the past. Like everyone. Every interview that I do is like, oh, when is altcoin season? I mean, I had a great altcoin season. Hyper liquid Athena, right? Like this is, you know, zcash. Like there's been a lot of standout performing altcoins that have made people a lot of money in this cycle. Just because you thought that, you know, you're just going to spray and pray on some dog shit shitcoin and it's going to go up 10x just because it's called an altcoin. Well, I'm sorry, the game changed, right? So you need to adapt.
- [16:09]
B
Sometimes I feel like unless it's being called altcoin season in the media, people don't register it. And it sounds like maybe the people who are asking you that are thinking.
- [16:19]
A
Along those wavelengths, which, or they didn't own those tokens. I'm pretty sure if you ask a bunch of hyper liquid people about altcoin season, they'll be like, yeah, that's a great altcoin season. I fucking crushed it.
- [16:32]
B
What, what would you say the biggest win for the industry was this year?
- [16:36]
A
Biggest win? I don't know. I think everything is. Things are just happening. It's just is what it is, right? Price keeps prices, is okay, I guess. Yeah. I don't know what the biggest win is. I think we've continued to. The blockchains work, right? Bitcoin blockchain works. Ethereum works. We continue to produce blocks. It's immutable. It works. We had Liberation day in the U.S. risk off around the world markets crashing, crypto is fine. No bailouts, all that kind of stuff. So I think we had a good year. The stuff worked just as it worked every other year.