Markets Outlook – Why Jan van Eck's Firm Sat Out the Digital Asset Treasury Wave

Podcast: Markets Outlook by CoinDesk
Date: October 27, 2025
Host: Jen Sanasi
Guest: Jan van Eck (CEO, VanEck)

Overview

This episode features an insightful conversation with Jan van Eck, CEO of the investment firm VanEck, as he analyzes the current state and future outlook of crypto markets—especially Bitcoin and Ethereum—as 2025 draws to a close. The discussion delves into why VanEck chose to sidestep the digital asset treasury (DAT) boom, key regulatory changes, the picks-and-shovels approach to crypto infrastructure, and the maturation and institutionalization of crypto as an asset class.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bitcoin’s 2025 Cycle and Outlook

• Muted Cycle: Van Eck notes that Bitcoin's uptick in 2025 has been more subdued compared to prior years.

  "It's been a different, more muted bitcoin appreciation cycle and I'm curious as to how the year end action looks relative to 2026 and whether we'll get like sort of the halvening correction." — Jan van Eck [01:45]

• Bitcoin vs. Gold: Despite gold’s parabolic rise and subsequent correction, Bitcoin has shown resilience and is "recapturing...lost ground" relative to gold. The firm's outlook is optimistic.

  "We are as a shop...hoping for all time highs in bitcoin before year end. So that's really what our base case is." — Jan van Eck [02:18]

• Year-End Target: Van Eck sets a bullish price target.

  "Well over 150 per coin. 150,000...that's really our base model." — Jan van Eck [02:38]

2. Macro Forces and Adoption

• Policy vs. Geopolitics: The current U.S. administration is seen as crypto-friendly, but global tensions introduce volatility.
• Institutionalization: True maturation hinges on broader adoption beyond retail and hedge funds.

  "We're just now maybe seeing some of the giants in the wealth management space start adopting Bitcoin...even six months ago it was mainly retail and hedge funds." — Jan van Eck [03:28]

• Correlation with Risk Assets: Elevated Bitcoin correlation to the Nasdaq and 'risk-on' assets could be holding it back.

  "That's been kind of holding it back a little bit this cycle...I'd like to see it be able to break..." — Jan van Eck [04:15]

3. Ethereum’s Role and the Genius Act

• Not Crypto ‘Silver’: VanEck rejects the narrative of Ether as "silver" to Bitcoin’s "gold," stressing Ethereum's distinct utility and evolution, especially post-proof-of-stake and L2 upgrades.

  "Basically Ethereum plays such a different role...the services it provides through its blockchain...If you can't answer [about its market share], that's why we've been offering actively managed funds." — Jan van Eck [05:10]

• Infrastructure Layer: Ethereum is viewed as "the go to blockchain for Wall Street" post-Genius Act, which allowed tech firms into payments and smashed bank monopolies.

  "The Genius act was the biggest piece of bank deregulation in US history...Ethereum is probably the go to blockchain for Wall Street." — Jan van Eck [06:13]

• Future Uncertainties: The core economic question is whether corporations will use public Ethereum, private forks, or other blockchains.

  "That kind of play out is difficult to figure out for the average investor." — Jan van Eck [06:55]

4. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) & Altcoins

• Bearish on DATs: While once trendy as closed-end funds, many DATs now trade at a discount.

  "...There was this huge enthusiasm, a lot of issuance and now a lot of them are trading below their net asset value..." — Jan van Eck [08:51]

• VanEck’s Absence: The firm avoided DATs, believing ETFs are a superior, more transparent vehicle for exposure to tokens like ETH or SOL.

  "If you want to invest in Ethereum or Solana, just buy an ETF. It will do a way better job of pricing the underlying value of those tokens..." — Jan van Eck [10:15] "If there's this premium discount noise, I think that's just a negative for your average investor." — Jan van Eck [10:40]

• On Sustainability: DATs lacking ancillary business should be "merged out of existence," while others might endure via strategic pivots.

  "Some...should probably just be merged out of existence...Some however...hopefully they will be able to find some related businesses..." — Jan van Eck [10:55]

5. Altcoins & Blockchain Economics

• Overvaluation Concerns: Optionality value assigned to many altcoins is seen as misplaced—most are "just software protocols" with unproven fee capture.

  "There's this optionality and...the market is coming to realize that there shouldn't be optionality value to some of these altcoins..." — Jan van Eck [09:43]

• Investor Caution: Suggests most altcoin speculation is unwarranted without demonstrable economic activity.

6. Picks and Shovels: Infrastructure Investments

• Convergence of TradFi & Crypto: Deregulation is driving synergy between traditional brokers/banks and their crypto counterparts. Firms like Robinhood exemplify this integration.

  "The main trend...is because of the deregulation. You're seeing a convergence of...traditional securities players and crypto players." — Jan van Eck [11:38]

• Stablecoins Everywhere: Predicts all financial institutions will eventually offer stablecoins, using third-party software to integrate those services.

  "Everyone, even banks, are going to offer stablecoins to their customers...create the new hybrid ecosystem..." — Jan van Eck [12:18]

7. Bitcoin Miners & AI

• Data Center Pivot: Bitcoin miners have diversified into data center and AI services, leveraging energy contracts.

  "The Bitcoin miners, we thought that they would be able to use their energy contracts to pivot into...data center services. And the ones that have, have done super well." — Jan van Eck [12:46]

• Short-Term Play: Not a long-term bet for VanEck; hence, no dedicated miner ETF.

8. Prediction Markets

• Here to Stay: Jan is enthusiastic about prediction markets’ emerging role in risk management and financial analysis.

  "The beauty of prediction markets is they allow you to isolate a particular risk and really allocate your assets directly at it..." — Jan van Eck [13:30]

• Regulatory Hurdles: Believes eventual institutionalization is likely, once current legal issues are settled.

9. Regulatory Sea Change & Asset Class Maturation

• Biggest Surprise: The abrupt regulatory U-turn in the U.S. has forced banks and brokers to adopt crypto strategies rapidly.

  "I kind of have never seen such a hostile regulatory environment change on a dime to being so maybe over permissioned...that has really accelerated adoption..." — Jan van Eck [14:36]

• Need for Market Structure Law: While the Genius Act and stablecoin legislation were major achievements, Jan advocates for a safe harbor for software companies—but sees innovation continuing regardless.

  "What I was rooting for is some kind of safe harbor for software companies...but it's not necessary for the changes to happen..." — Jan van Eck [15:26]

Notable Quotes

• "Bitcoin's really underperformed gold because gold had this sort of parabolic rise over the last several months and it's now correcting pretty hard as one would have expected. And bitcoin's...pretty resilient against that." — Jan van Eck [02:04]
• "If you want to invest in Ethereum or Solana, just buy an ETF. It will do a way better job of pricing the underlying value of those tokens." — Jan van Eck [10:15]
• "The Genius act was the biggest piece of bank deregulation in US history because it allows tech companies effectively to get involved in the payment system, which has never happened." — Jan van Eck [06:13]
• "Everyone, even banks, are going to offer stablecoins to their customers." — Jan van Eck [12:18]
• "I kind of have never seen such a hostile regulatory environment change on a dime to being so maybe over permissioned under the current administration." — Jan van Eck [14:36]
• "The beauty of prediction markets is they allow you to isolate a particular risk and really allocate your assets directly at it..." — Jan van Eck [13:30]

Important Timestamps

• Bitcoin’s muted appreciation & 2025 outlook: [01:45–02:38]
• Correlation with risk-on assets: [03:18–04:23]
• Ethereum’s foundational role & the Genius Act: [05:10–06:55]
• DAT critique & ETF preference: [08:51–10:52]
• Picks-and-shovels investment approach: [11:38–12:43]
• Prediction markets institutionalization: [13:20–14:19]
• The surprise of regulatory shifts: [14:36–15:26]

Conclusion

This episode delivers an authoritative overview of where sophisticated investors like VanEck see the crypto market heading: a continued wave of institutionalization supported by regulatory shifts, sophisticated infrastructure investments, and a skepticism toward quickly hyped trends like DATs and overvalued altcoins. Van Eck stresses the importance of transparency (via ETFs), sustainable business models, and adaptable strategies as the ecosystem matures and integrates with legacy finance.

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