← Markets Outlook
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- [00:00]
A
When you want to know what the weather's like, you sort of, you look out the window and you see our people carrying umbrellas or sunglasses. I think the Meme Coin Index is a great way to figure out what you should wear that day, what your outfit should be as you head out into the marketplace.
- [00:21]
B
Hey, everyone, you're watching Markets Outlook. I'm Jen Senassi here with my co host Andy Baer. And today it's just, just the two of us. Andy, happy New Year.
- [00:29]
A
Happy New Year. Wow, we've got such a big year ahead of us. Jen, what are you looking forward to the most in the next couple of weeks?
- [00:36]
B
Well, you know, I focus a lot on regulation and policy on some of our other shows, so I'm looking forward to the market structure markup, see what's going to happen next week. And then of course, looking at how that may or may not impact the markets and some of the ecosystems that we like to talk about often on these shows. But Andy, before I ask you what you're looking forward to, I want to ask you, you know, I was really looking forward to a Santa rally at the end of last year and we didn't get that. Of course. We had the events of October 10, which were unprecedented for this industry. What does that, what does that tell you? No Santa rally. Santa didn't show up for that nice little year end bump. What does that tell you about what's going to happen at the top of this year?
- [01:16]
A
I think there was just, you know, an exhaustion of demand and, you know, you kept having these little mini rallies that try, like you're starting to try to start an outboard boat engine and it just wouldn't fire up. I think that the options market was positioned in such a way that was kind of pinning the price of bitcoin around 87,000. And people thought like, well, I'm not going to fight against that so much, so I'm just going to let prices go out. So it was a heartbreaking quarter and I think we have to wait to see if there's more skeletons to come out of the closet after the 10:10 event. But as there, there wasn't a Santa Claus rally, but New year, new quarter, things came out of the gate kind of strong. Our Meme Coin index was up 25% in the first five days of the year. So certainly people were willing to crack open their wallets when 2026 arrived.
- [02:09]
B
Okay, the Meme Coin index was up. Talk to us a little bit about some other trends you're seeing. Do you expect Meme coins to have the same momentum they had at the beginning of 2025, or like, just talk to me a little bit about how you're interpreting that information.
- [02:24]
A
I mean, when you want to know what the weather's like, you sort of, you look out the window and you see our people carrying umbrellas or sunglasses. I think the Meme Coin Index is a great way to figure out what you should wear that day, what your outfit should be as you head out into the marketplace. If it's up 10%, yeah, you're going to put on, you know, a nice, nice polo shirt and sunglasses and head out. So it's, it's a sign of instantaneous demand and enthusiasm in the crypto native markets and probably reflected in the per markets too. So our Meme coin index has 50 tokens in it. They're equally weighted. So it really reaches, it really reaches pretty deep. So it's, it's fun to look at. It's something that many investors should just look at at a distance. But we like it as a barometer of kind of instantaneous mood.
- [03:11]
B
Does that mean we're seeing retail maybe start to inch their way back to markets?
- [03:17]
A
You know, the October 10th event, we're still kind of catching our breath. I think a lot of people, including me, didn't really realize the scope and the scale of how much wind the market had knocked out of it. Centralized spot and derivative volumes dried up pretty meaningfully in November. In December, the CoinDesk data chart that we all like to look at showed a pretty steep fall off. And a lot of that's retail. A lot of that's retail saying, I got, I got my butt handed to me. It's going to be a while. We also saw our overnight rates, which reflect borrowing activity on AAVE both in USDC and USDT, decline in the fourth quarter to below kind of 5%, which, you know, they really hadn't spent a lot of time at before. So that demand for leverage and the demand for leverage trading really kind of dried up. It's kind of interesting how that fit very neatly into a quarter. And then as soon as the new year hit, people said, okay, the sheets are clean, let's get back into it. And you saw Bitcoin go right up over 90 grand again and ether over 3,000. CoinDesk 20 index hit 3,000 yesterday. So I think we're back into this mood of, okay, well, let's see what's going on. As you pointed out, we may have a clarity act bill coming. We have, I guess thoughts and ideas about interest rate policy. The Venezuela situation has not immediately escalated and stocks are kind of doing okay. So this may be a time for people to sort of gather their, gather their breath and sort of get back into the markets. Plus, we have a ton of new products coming, a lot of new ETFs coming out. There'll be CoinDesk 20 ETFs, there'll be single token ETFs. We'll have more product announcements at ConsenSys in, in Hong Kong in February. So there'll be certainly a lot of playing fields for new and experienced crypto people.