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- [00:00]
A
I wouldn't be surprised to see Hyper liquid run towards 100 bucks or more in the next period of time. It's all depending on how strong the entire appetite will be within the crypto markets. Valuations can be a little bit overextended. But if you compare hype to for instance Solana, it can easily go to 100 plus.
- [00:27]
B
Markets move fast. Crypto moves faster from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. CoinDesk's public keys tracks the money markets and moves shaping digital assets. Michael Fonda Pobe welcome to Markets Outlook.
- [00:56]
A
Thank you very much for having me.
- [00:58]
B
All right, let's just start here. I mean lots going on in the markets, but what are you watching? What's keeping you up at night?
- [01:06]
A
Well, I think the markets are actually getting better in terms of the crypto markets. Hyperliquid is making a new all time high today and in general you will see a little bit more of a appetite that people are willing to trade altcoins and I think that's just great for the markets as a whole.
- [01:23]
B
I want to unpack both of those with you. Let's start with hyperliquid. Hyperliquid really outperforming the rest of the market on the back of those two hype ETF launches in the United States yesterday. Talk to me a little bit about your thesis around hyperliquid. You know we talk so much about what's going on in the United States, but Hyper Liquid is really a global story. And I think that from your perspective is one that we don't often cover on CoinDesk.
- [01:48]
A
I think like I've got a very unique stance in that sense because if you are in Europe and you would like to trade perps on the markets, it's nearly impossible to do it on most of the ventures. Which means that a lot of my friends who are like pro traders in the Netherlands have been moving towards Hyper liquid and that's the actual reason why hyperliquid has been growing as fast as they were. And I think that if you look at the continued growth with Also the pre IPOs, the tokenized stocks, the tokenized commodities, being able to be traded on Hyper liquid accelerates the entire tokenization topic, accelerates the entire, well, innovation that they are building, which then also questions the valuation of Hyper Liquid. And I think that if you look at the PE ratios and the current valuation of Hyper Liquid and the growth that it's having, it's still super undervalued. And now we, with the recent ETFs, you can see that a lot of money is flowing into the token from institutions. They see the perspective and there's no wonder that it's making a new all time high. And I think that the trend will just continue to grow.
- [02:54]
B
What's your outlook? What's your target for hype?
- [02:57]
A
Oh, I don't know exactly, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hyper liquid run towards 100 bucks or more in the next period of time. It's all depending on how strong the entire appetite will be. Within the crypto markets, valuations can be a little bit overextended. But if you compare hype to, for instance, Solana, it can easily go to 100 plus.
- [03:20]
B
If you were looking at hype versus Solana, I think I know your answer here, but which is the more attractive asset for you right now?
- [03:28]
A
I do not want to get flamed by any of the two communities, but I think both of them are very interesting. But I think that what you see in the markets with crypto is just that if there is a little bit more of an appetite coming into the markets, the money will be concentrated around a few of them. And that's why Hyper Liquid, zcash and a few other protocols have attract all the or have got all the liquidity in the markets right now. So in the short term I would say Hyper Liquid is great. But. But given that they are having a position that is as good as it is, there will be other players coming in to get a little bit of that market share. So in the long term, I'm not sure whether it's going to stay the biggest trading house as it is because every year that I've been trading there's been a different value. Solana. I've been to the Solana event in Miami. Solana is actually transitioning from the Degen space into an institutional space and it's actually a really good blockchain to work on. So in the long term, I'd rather want to hold Solana instead of Hyper Liquid as a conviction bet.
- [04:34]
B
All right, I want to talk a little bit more about Hyper Liquid. You know, I said so often in this space we are very US centric, especially when we're talking about regulation. Hyper Liquid, of course, not available to folks who sit in the US and we recently learned that ICE and CME are pushing regulators to, to look into HyperLiquid. Again, very US centric. Is that something that you, you take into account when you're looking at your outlook for, for hype, that regulatory uncertainty, or is it something that you think really doesn't matter. When you look at how you and your friend group are using the platform
- [05:10]
A
at this point, it doesn't matter that much. But in the fund that we have and the training that we do there, it's very important to look at all those aspects. We have been using it in the volatility trading that we do. So essentially the more volatile it is, the better it is for us to trade. And hyper liquid as an asset is super uncorrelated to the rest of the crypto token. So it's a great asset to build in whatever strategy. When it comes to the outlook, there are many factors that are uncertain when it comes to hyperliquid regulatory, but also all the tokenization platforms that are going to be built within the US that are actually compliant with the regulatory rules within the US that are coming up, they will be trading tokenized stocks, tokenized commodities and all those things that will take a bigger market share from the entire pie. And that's why I think that it's very uncertain to know how large hyper Liquid will be. But even that means that the current valuation is super low. As you know, as you can see that the entire growth area, NWA and tokenization is just going on a vertical. Right? So I think we are at the beginning of that hockey stick. And even though there are many complications when it comes to hyper liquid and risks, it's still a very attractive asset to have in your portfolio.
- [06:27]
B
You started the show by saying that you see some more opportunities in the altcoin market. And I have to ask you this because I've had guests join me on this show and other shows on Coindesk and they've kind of said, you know, altcoins for the most part are dead. They're really focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum, of course, off the back of institutional adoption that you, you mentioned you witnessed when you were at the Salana event in Miami recently. But talk to me a little bit about how you're looking at the altcoin market. Are you just looking at a handful and what, what's your outlook on altcoins more?
- [07:28]
A
I think it's a very complicated market. I've been going through multiple cycles now and it feels kind of like we've just witnessed FTX and we don't know where the altcoins are going to be heading to and there's no interest into them. But the actual strong projects have continued to build and there are a few out there that are very likely to outperform massively compared to the other ones. So I said earlier that the money will be concentrated in the ones that have been growing and have been adopting or have been generating revenue. So there are a selective amount of protocols that are doing really well. If I can say some examples, for instance, I think that right now there's a lot of focus on all the AI companies going to IPO in the coming period or AI companies that have just gone crazy in terms of valuations. Crypto and AI is such a natural connection between the two. But the valuations of all those AI protocols within crypto are super low compared to the rest. So protocols like near Bittensor, those are standard ones that are probably people are going to look for when they want to have an allocation. That's also the reason why they are strong compared to Bitcoin and E today and in the past few weeks.
- [08:45]
B
Talk to me a little bit about your near thesis and if you can maybe give me a little bit of a comparison. You know, folks are looking at the AI tech companies that are going to IPO in the coming months. Why should they be looking at near?
- [08:59]
A
If you look at the IPO companies, then you can compare any of those IPOs with token listings of the past two years. And I think that most of the charts will be comparable because the valuations of those IPOs of those AI companies are like a trillion or higher. What do you expect the upside to be from that standpoint? Like they are not going to triple or go 4x from that level. The chances of them to correct 50 to 75% is significantly larger than the upside. But if you look at the thesis of near, NEAR has multiple components. They have the AI agents, they have near intents where you can swap from one protocol to the other protocol. The growth of the revenue has gone from 10 million in 2025 to projected 70 to 100 million this year. If that path is going to last, then the valuation of 1 billion is super low at this point. So you have multiple anchors within the protocol, which is the community is growing, the network effect is expanding. There is a PE ratio that is conservative still at this valuation and the revenue grows. So all those packed together, including the fact that a part of the revenue will be used for buybacks. It's just a very standard investment to make. And you don't need to have the smallest AI protocols within your portfolio. No, if you believe that AI versus crypto is going to be a big anchor in the years ahead, just take the bigger protocols out there. And that is probably a very easy bet to make, especially since the valuations of all of them have gone down because of crypto has gone down and not because of the protocol itself went down or whatsoever. No, they continue to build.
- [10:44]
B
Another ecosystem you mentioned was Bittensor. That's one that's really kind of stolen the headlines when it comes to AI and crypto. Talk to me about what's interesting to you when it comes to Bittensor and what's your outlook there. Do you think Bittensor could outperform hype this year?
- [11:03]
A
Oh, that last one is tricky. I think the concept of Bittensor is really unique with all the subnets. It's very complex. We have seen that, I think earlier in April, where one of the subnets left, which then questioned a lot of governance protocols within Bittensor to be reviewed and to be updated. Aside from that, it's kind of in the same scope, as I've just said. I think if you, if you want to bet on infrastructure layers within AI, then BitTensor, and they are those two. If you then look at the valuations of those protocols and what they have achieved over the past year, they have gone down in price by 70, 80% while the entire ecosystem has expanded. So I'm not expecting, or I'm not surprised if, for instance, Bittensor goes to $1,000 or $2,000 from here, that will put it at a fair value compared to the growth that it has seen. Same for near. Near can go to 10 bucks or 20 bucks and it's still at. Then it's at a fair value in terms of the growth that it has compared to all those IPOs that we are going to see. So if it is, do I expect it to outperform hyper liquid? It's going to be close. I think both of them are just two protocols that you need to have if you build a crypto portfolio.
- [12:26]
B
We've hit on the two big narratives that I've seen in crypto markets. When I look at the past few months, we hit on institutional, we hit on AI. And for me, when I look at the markets, I think the last one that's kind of bubbling up, that's showing interest among traders like yourself, is privacy. Is that what you're seeing as well, or is there another theme that you're following?
- [12:49]
A
No, I think privacy is one of the biggest conversations within institutional crypto and within retail crypto. I think the core essence of crypto needs to be that you can transact in a private manner. However, privacy has been conflicted with being anonymous, and I think that is where we get through right now. But at least the interest in zcash shows that there's a huge demand for that type of way of interacting with each other. However, I find it very difficult to find a investment thesis when it comes to zcash at current valuations. And then you get the question of like, okay, so Zcash has gone up 8 to 9x from the lows, and there are a lot of protocols that are barely up 30 to 50%. What do I expect in the next three to six months to outperform? And then I find more reasoning into going into the protocols that I've just mentioned. Other than that, I think that privacy from the Web three angle and from the institutional angle are super important because neither of them want to be transacting on a public chain.
- [13:57]
B
Tell me a little bit more about that difficulty you have finding a thesis when it comes to zcash. You just kind of talked about the short term. Does your long term look different?
- [14:08]
A
Not at all. I think overall, if you look at zcash, I mentioned it before, but when it comes to privacy and being fully private, there are a lot of risks compared to government stepping in or blocking the way that you transact. For instance, a lot of privacy coins are not being able to trade here in Europe with the funds. I'm not able to add those tokens in our base assets or in any of our strategies because it's just not a. You cannot transact on those protocols and government cannot see what you're doing. That's kind of the biggest risk that there is. And I'm sure that governments will start to step in on fully private blockchains because they want to prevent everyone of using those protocols. That has been the case over the past eight years, and that will not change. However, if you are having a private blockchain where you can basically give access to the government to check your taxes or to check your wallets, and that's the only thing that they can do. That's something that we most likely will be using in the years to come. So in that sense, I think it's understandable that zcash is getting the interest from the narrative that is privacy. But I don't know whether it's going to last for the coming five to 10 years and whether it will sustain the valuation. It's very hard to put a valuation on that particular aspect. So that's why if I cannot make a thesis, I'll just stay away from.
- [15:37]
B
Sounds like what you're saying is privacy is necessary, but maybe some of the more permissioned ecosystems or zero knowledge proofs being embedded into ecosystems where you can share some data. But not all are what might win in the future.
- [15:54]
A
Yeah, yeah. I mean Chainlink has been doing that with JP Morgan. The Kinexis platform, where the Kinexis platform is completely private and that communicates with Ondo whatever blockchain. And yes, you have got those CK proofs. And I think that is going to be a big use case for anyone because everyone wants to be private. Nobody wants to have their transactions on chain visible for anything in the market. So that is going to be a big use case. But being fully anonymous is not the right going forward. And that's why I stay away from investing into those protocols.
- [16:31]
B
All right, I want to zoom out just before I let you go. What are you watching from a macro perspective?
- [16:36]
A
I think there are two very important topics that we need to look at. First of all, whether or not the yields are going to last, whether they continue to run, especially the yields in Japan. That has gone completely on a parabolic case. If that calms down or consolidates because of whether or not there is peace in the Middle east or there is another factor into taking into account that is going to influence the markets in a positive way. So if the yields go down, we can expect more risk on appetite, we can expect indices to go up, we can expect crypto to do really well. And I'm really looking forward to the Fed chairman on his approach. Everybody is saying that he's going to cut rates or at least start a money printer again. I do not expect that to happen. I think it's more favorable to see rate hikes with the amount of inflation that we're seeing. But if we get that, we can definitely see a huge impact of that in the markets. That probably is not going to be productive for crypto as a whole. So those are the two main topics for the upcoming, let's say four to six weeks for me.
- [17:43]
B
Michael, thanks so much for joining Markets Outlook. It was a pleasure.
- [17:47]
A
Thank you very much for having me.