Podcast Summary: Más de uno (OndaCero)
Episode: Ignacio Urquizu da las claves electorales para que la propuesta de Gabriel Rufián "tenga alguna posibilidad"
Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Carlos Alsina
Main Guest: Ignacio Urquizu (Political Analyst)
Other contributors: Political commentators, historians, journalists
Episode Overview
This episode of Más de uno dives into the shifting landscape of Spain’s political left, particularly the recurring challenges facing parties to the left of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party). Through a data-rich discussion led by analyst Ignacio Urquizu, the panel unpacks the history, current fragmentation, and electoral prospects for these parties—especially in light of Gabriel Rufián’s latest political proposal. The episode also explores broader voter realignments and why forming a new leftist coalition may have little room for success.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Historical context of the "left of the left"
[00:09–02:44]
- The political space to the left of PSOE has always existed but is marked by fragmentation and volatility.
- 1970s & 1980s: Dominated by the Communist Party, peaking at nearly 2 million votes and 23 seats.
- 1990s: Izquierda Unida (IU) surge, with 2.7 million votes and 21 seats in 1996.
- Myth dispelled: The idea that a weak PSOE automatically strengthens the radical left isn’t always true—after PSOE’s collapse in 2000, the left also saw a decline.
“Durante esos años se extendió una idea, una leyenda que decía que cuanto peor le iba al PSOE, mejor le iba a esa izquierda. Hasta que llegó el año 2000 y donde se derrumbó el PSOE y también se derrumbó esa izquierda...”
— Historian/Political Commentator [00:34]
2. Current voter distribution & orphans on the left
[02:44–05:45]
-
Latest CIS survey (Jan 2026):
- 45% of voters on the far left choose PSOE, the highest since Pedro Sánchez became leader.
- Only 11% would vote for Sumar, and 7.5% for Podemos—both much lower than past peaks.
- Around 13% of far-left voters are politically "orphaned" (no clear party).
-
Comparison by ideological group:
- Political orphans:
- Far left: 13%
- Left: 26%
- Centre: 38%
- Right: 18%
- “Si hay un sitio donde menos espacio hay para el nuevo partido político es en la extrema izquierda.”
- Political orphans:
Far-left Voter Profile
- Average age: 53 years.
- Gender: 40% women (greater presence than average).
- Location: More in mid-sized cities (10,000–400,000).
- Education: Only 25% have universitiy degrees (lower only in the far right and non-ideological groups).
- Class: Highest share of working class, lowest of middle class.
3. Leadership Preferences among the Far Left
[05:45–06:05]
- For president:
- Pedro Sánchez leads.
- Gabriel Rufián is second (10%), followed by Yolanda Díaz (6.7%), then Irene Montero, Ione Belarra, and Pablo Iglesias (all below 2%).
- “Para ellos el principal problema... es la vivienda y el segundo... los extremismos.”
4. The Viability of Gabriel Rufián's Proposal
[05:45–06:05]
-
The number of available (undecided or uncommitted) voters on the extreme left is slim.
-
“El problema que tiene Gabriel Rufián es que se va a tirar a un sitio donde no hay muchos votantes en los que pescar...”
-
Electoral system: Favors concentration of votes, particularly among nationalists/regionalists — a challenge for new ventures.
-
“...el sistema electoral español si algo premia es concentrar el voto, no dispersarlo.”
5. The Question of United Left Coalitions (Aragon Case)
[06:05–06:49]
- Even a united front (IU, Podemos, Chunta) in Aragón would not have changed seat allocation much due to proportional district sizes.
- “...no hubiese habido ninguno cambio, incluso ni aunque se acabó la fiesta hubiera ido con Vox...”
6. Sumar, Podemos, and the Shifted Left
[06:49–08:18]
- Sumar and Más Madrid suffer from “poca diferenciación” with the PSOE, which is perceived as moving further left, taking away their unique space.
- “...el PSOE ha devorado a sumar... se ha producido es que el PSOE es percibido como un partido más a la izquierda de lo que ha sido tradicionalmente.”
7. Voter Leakage from PSOE to the Right
[08:18–11:23]
- Significant numbers of former PSOE voters shift to PP and Vox (1 million total: 600,000 to PP, 400,000 to Vox).
- Key factor in rightward drift is not leftist division but active movement of voters to the right.
- “En la última encuesta que nosotros tenemos En Metroscopia cuantificamos 1 millón de votantes que votaron al PSOE, hoy votarían a PP o Vox. 600.000 al PP y 400.000 a Vox.”
— Ignacio Urquizu [09:04] - Much of this migration happens in metropolitan areas among aspirational middle class who have seen standards of living stall.
Example from Urquizu:
“Esa zonas de áreas metropolitanas ... jóvenes entre 30 y 45 años, clase media aspiracional, que ... ahora mismo no se pueden comprar una vivienda...”
— Ignacio Urquizu [10:35]
8. The Challenge of Staunching Rightward Drift
[11:23–13:16]
- Reducing rightward leakage depends on how mainstream right parties handle coalitions with Vox.
- International experience (e.g., Meloni in Italy) shows there's no single formula to limit the far right's rise.
- “Lo que sí que está demostrado es que cada vez que te pareces a ellos, ellos suben. Es decir, que lo que dice la evidencia empírica es que cuando el resto de formaciones políticas se quieren parecer a ellos, ... que sube.”
— Ignacio Urquizu [11:49]
9. The Power—and Limits—of Voter Negativity
[13:19–14:40]
- As with the rise and disappointment with Podemos and now Vox in some regions, populist waves may subside as parties govern and fail to deliver.
- “En el momento que decepcionen, seguramente el soufflé bajará. ¿Y para decepcionar qué hay que hacer? ... Gobernar.”
— Political Commentator [13:16]
10. Underlying Political Crisis: Need for a Project
[14:40–end]
- Across parties, voters perceive a lack of genuine national projects or inspiring political vision.
- Urquizu and panel suggest the real issue is not communication but the absence of substantive political proposals.
- “...los problemas de comunicación política no existen, lo que existen son los problemas de política... el problema que hay ahora mismo en la política española es de proyecto político.”
— Ignacio Urquizu [13:40]
Notable Quotes
- Ignacio Urquizu [00:09]: “Es verdad que estamos ante el enésimo intento de coordinar todos esos votantes que están en las posiciones más a la izquierda...”
- Political Analyst [05:45]: “...Gabriel Rufián se quiere tirar a una piscina donde hay gente que le quiere ver nadar... pero los datos dicen que no hay mucha agua en esa piscina.”
- Ignacio Urquizu [09:04]: “...en la última encuesta que nosotros tenemos en Metroscopia cuantificamos 1 millón de votantes que votaron al PSOE, hoy votarían a PP o Vox.”
- Political Commentator [13:16]: “...En el momento que decepcionen, seguramente el soufflé bajará.”
- Ignacio Urquizu [13:40]: “...los problemas de comunicación política no existen, lo que existen son los problemas de política...”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:09 — Fragmentation and historical data on the Spanish left
- 02:44 — Current numbers for PSOE, Sumar, Podemos, and the concept of “huérfanos políticos”
- 05:45 — Voter profile of the far left and Rufián’s limited prospects
- 06:05 — Analysis of left unity scenarios in Aragón
- 06:49 — Sumar’s struggles and PSOE’s leftward shift
- 08:18 — Migration of voters from PSOE to PP/Vox, focus on metropolitan dynamics
- 11:49 — Challenges facing right-leaning coalitions and the far right’s appeal
- 13:16 — Populism, disaffection, and governance as ways to dissipate extremist waves
- 14:40 — Lack of compelling political projects across the spectrum
Tone & Style
The conversation combines detailed, data-driven analysis with pointed, often humorous observations—a signature of Más de uno. Urquizu’s tone is pragmatic and occasionally candid (“no tengo ni idea realmente”; “no soy el más listo”), while other panelists inject skepticism and irony, especially regarding the cyclical nature of Spanish party politics and the pessimism about forming new leftist forces.
Takeaway
Main Insight: The Spanish far left is crowded, and fertile ground for new partisan experiments is scant. Both increased competition on the left and structural voter shifts to the right limit the prospects for initiatives like Rufián’s. Meanwhile, the deeper malaise may be the absence of a hopeful, compelling political project—not simply a failure of messaging or coalition-building.