Podcast Summary: Más de Uno – "Qué piensan los aragoneses"

Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Carlos Alsina (Onda Cero)
Main Guest Contributor: Ignacio Urquizu (sociólogo aragonés)
Other Contributors: Cardero, Daván, Bolaño, García Yer, Amón

Episode Overview

This episode of "Más de uno" explores the unique political psychology and voting trends of Aragón, a region approaching autonomous elections. With the insight of sociologist Ignacio Urquizu, the panel dissects why a society that self-identifies as largely left-wing seems poised to vote overwhelmingly for right-wing parties, drawing parallels with national politics and examining recent polling, historic context, and the fragmentation of the left.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The 'Miniature Spain' Effect in Aragón

• Aragón as a bellwether: Ignacio Urquizu calls Aragón "una especie de España en miniatura", underlining its representative mix of demographics and politcal tendencies. Historically, the region's electoral winner has often mirrored Spain's overall outcome, much like Ohio in the U.S.
  • Quote: "Aragón tenía algo que tenía Ohio, que ya no tiene Ohio, es que quien ganaba las elecciones en Aragón era el que ganaba después a nivel general..." (01:10, B)
• Political diversity: The panel notes the unique presence of regional and provincial parties alongside national ones.

Current Political Landscape & Election Projections

• Recent polling data:
  • Partido Popular (PP): ~38% of votes, slight increase since 2023.
  • PSOE: Under 24%, significant decline.
  • Vox: Up to 17%, minor but noted increase.
  • Regionalist parties (PAR, Chunta Aragonesista, Teruel Existe) – at risk of losing ground or maintaining small but significant presence.
  • Left-wing parties (Podemos, Izquierda Unida): Highly fragmented, each polling around 1 seat.
• Shift to the right: Combined PP and Vox could command up to 55% of the regional vote—a 10-point rise from 2023. "De nuevo estamos viendo ese giro a la derecha que se está viendo en el conjunto de España y que también se vería en Aragón." (03:51, B)

The Puzzle: Majority Left-Wing Identity, Right-Wing Victory

• Statistical paradox: Despite historic and current identification with the left (40% vs. 36% right, with 22% center), right-wing parties lead voting intentions.
  • Quote: "Nunca tanta gente se había ubicado en la izquierda en Aragón... y a la vez el 55% del voto en las elecciones autonómicas va a ser para la derecha." (05:38, A)
• Rise of extremes: Both the far left and far right have record-high self-identification (15% each among Aragonese).
  • "El 15% de los aragoneses se ubican en la extrema izquierda... pero también... en la extrema derecha." (05:49, B)
• Potential explanation: A highly-rated regional government (70% positive, 42% say better than before) may tip even left-leaning voters rightward, or at least moderate reactions to conservative rule.
• National influence: Election outcomes are often intertwined with national issues, not just local governance. The question of regional financing ("financiación autonómica") is especially salient, with 80% rating it as very important and 52% viewing recent arrangements with the central government as harmful to Aragón's interests.

Fragmentation of the Left

• Electoral consequences: Fragmentation and competition between multiple leftist parties weakens potential for a unified front, pushing some would-be left voters toward abstention or even the PP.
  • In recent Extremadura elections, "un 15% se fue al Partido Popular y un 15% se fue a Podemos" from former PSOE voters (10:13, B).
  • Abstention is notable: "el 40% fue a la abstención" (10:13, B).
• Leadership dilemmas:
  • Pilar Alegría (current PSOE leader in Aragón and recent national spokesperson), faces difficulty distinguishing her stance from Madrid, undermining local credibility.
    • Quote: "No es creíble ella haciendo un discurso crítico sobre la financiación singular, por ejemplo..." (11:04, A)
  • Previous leader Javier Lambán was respected for his combative defense of regional autonomy; Alegría is seen as tied to the centralist "sanchismo" of Pedro Sánchez.
    • Quote: "Eso se lo podíamos creer a Lamban, pero no a Pilar Alegría. Lamban que era sector crítico y no Alegría que es sanchismo de primera línea..." (11:43, D)
  • The absence of Pedro Sánchez at Lambán’s funeral is cited as a misstep affecting socialist unity in Aragón.

Potential Scenarios and the Role of Smaller Parties

• PP majority without Vox is within reach: Due to Aragón’s multiparty system, PP leader Azcón might not need Vox’s support if he can secure backing from provincial party Teruel Existe.
  • Quote: "Es posible. Eso es lo que... Azcón convoca las elecciones... ir a su máximo... que Teruel resista con los tres que tiene y eso haría en 34 y no necesitaría de Vox." (13:46, B)
• Coalition-building complexity: Aragón's landscape allows PP more flexibility than in regions like Extremadura, where Vox holds a more pivotal and contentious role.

Local Issues vs. National Tensions

• Key local issues: Besides financing, the debate touches on renewables (Forestalia) and intra-left disputes potentially influenced by Podemos's national leadership (references to "Galapagar", the residence of Irene Montero), hinting at failed coalition negotiations among regional leftists.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ignacio Urquizu [01:10]: "Aragón tenía algo que tenía Ohio... quien ganaba las elecciones en Aragón era el que ganaba después a nivel general..."
• Carlos Alsina [05:38]: "Nunca había habido tanta gente que se declara de izquierdas en Aragón y a la vez el 55% del voto en las elecciones autonómicas va a ser para la derecha."
• Ignacio Urquizu [05:49]: "El 15% de los aragoneses se ubican en la extrema izquierda... pero también... en la extrema derecha."
• Carlos Alsina [11:04]: "No es creíble ella [Pilar Alegría] haciendo un discurso crítico sobre la financiación singular... Eso se lo podíamos creer a Lamban, pero no a Pilar Alegría."
• Amón [11:43]: "Lamban que era sector crítico y no Alegría que es sanchismo de primera línea es una dificultad añadida para ello."
• Ignacio Urquizu [13:46]: "Azcón convoca las elecciones... que Teruel resista con los tres que tiene y eso haría en 34 y no necesitaría de Vox."

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:16-01:58: Introduction and context: regional peculiarities of Aragón's political opinion.
• 01:58-05:49: Polling breakdown; profile of the political spectrum and historic voting behavior.
• 05:49-10:08: Analysis of the "puzzle": left-leaning society, right-leaning vote; possible causes.
• 10:08-11:43: National political dynamics, leadership challenges for Pilar Alegría, and consequences for PSOE.
• 11:43-14:46: Scenarios for PP, coalition options, and majority prospects.
• 14:46-15:56: Challenges of alliance-building, left coalition dynamics, and concluding remarks.

Tone and Style

The conversation is analytical but peppered with sardonic and direct commentary, typical of Spanish political talk radio, especially between seasoned journalists and sociologists. There are moments of humor, irony, and sharp critiques, particularly regarding the leadership styles and tactical errors within the PSOE.

Summary Takeaways

• Aragón functions as a "mini Spain" in its political behaviors, making its elections significant for national trends.
• Despite a higher left-wing identification, the right is expected to win handily, owing to government popularity, fragmentation on the left, and sensitivity to national policy debates.
• Possible strategic mistakes and public perceptions of regional party figures—especially the contrast between Pilar Alegría and her predecessor—will further shape outcomes.
• Multiparty dynamics in Aragón may allow PP to govern with more flexibility than elsewhere, possibly without Vox.
• The fragmentation and disunity of the left, both ideology-driven and rooted in national party disputes, continues to handicap its prospects.