Podcast Summary: “Tertulia: Cómo queda Venezuela tras la caída de Nicolás Maduro y el control de Trump”

Podcast: Más de uno, Onda Cero
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Carlos Alsina
Panelists: Marta García, Javier Caraballo, Antonio Caño, Rubén Amón, Karina Sainz Borgo (Periodista y escritora venezolana)
Guests: Rubén del Campo (AEMET), Ignacio Rodríguez Burgos (Randstad Research), Daniela Moreno Coyle (oposición venezolana)

1. Overview of the Episode

The episode centers on the aftermath of Nicolás Maduro's fall in Venezuela following a US-led military intervention ordered by President Donald Trump. The roundtable explores the power vacuum, the role of the US and international community, who holds control in Caracas (especially Delcy Rodríguez as interim president), the fate of political prisoners, and the uncertain prospects for Venezuelan democracy. The panelists provide a multifaceted, sometimes critical, analysis of the intervention's legality and implications for both Venezuela and the global order.

2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. Prelude: Festive Spanish Context & Weather Alert

• The episode opens with banter about the Spanish Reyes Magos (Epiphany), weather warnings, and a brief labor market update—reflecting the tone of “Más de uno.”
• [04:31] Rubén del Campo from AEMET details a harsh cold snap across Spain, with specific regional snow warnings, impacting festive activities.

B. Breaking Down Recent Events in Venezuela

i. The Facts on the Ground

• [18:03–22:00] Alsina recaps the dramatic weekend:
  • US military operation captures Maduro and wife; he's now in US custody.
  • China reacts with outrage, calling for Maduro’s release and citing international law violations.
  • Donald Trump avoids clarifying who's now in charge of Venezuela (“We're prepared to act again if Delcy Rodríguez doesn’t comply”).
  • Delcy Rodríguez, previously Maduro’s vice president, now serves as interim president but signals openness to US demands—mainly in terms of anti-narcotics policy and oil investment.

ii. Initial Reactions & Warnings from Karina Sainz Borgo

• [22:01] (Karina Sainz Borgo):
  • Warns that replacing one dictator with US-backed leadership offers no real change.
  • Emphasizes concern for political prisoners and lack of attention to human rights:

    “Me parece absurdo que no se exija en ningún momento un tema de liberación de presos políticos.”

  • Asserts US intervention is driven solely by oil, highlighting 20+ mentions of “petróleo” in Trump’s speech.
  • Stresses the confusion and lack of a clear roadmap for Venezuela’s future.

iii. The US Perspective and Incoherence

• [25:19–26:45] Alsina recounts an interview with Marco Rubio (US Secretary for Venezuela), who sidesteps questions about transition to democracy, focusing only on oil and anti-narcotic objectives.

C. The Venezuelan Opposition: Hope vs. Reality

• [28:42–38:14] Interview with Daniela Moreno Coyle:
  • Advocates patience and outlines steps for a transition, saying Delcy Rodríguez will run a 90-day interim before elections.
  • Insists plans exist for eventual democratic restoration and return of figures like María Corina Machado, despite US non-committal stance toward political prisoners and democracy.
  • Admits the process is fraught, with no clear control over the armed forces and time needed to dismantle entrenched corruption and institutional rot.

D. Panel Tertulia: Skepticism, Legal Concerns, and Scenarios

i. Skepticism Towards the US Agenda

• [39:20] (Marta García):
  • Critiques the US for prioritizing control over oil and infrastructure, not democracy:

    “Lo que hemos oído invariablemente expresar a Donald Trump y a Marco Rubio es que la prioridad es el control de las infraestructuras, no sólo del petróleo, en Venezuela.”

  • Warns that deposing a dictator is easier than building a democracy—with no sign the US wants the latter.

ii. Degradation of International Norms

• [41:03] (Rubén Amón):
  • Condemns US unilateralism and warns of precedents for other authoritarian powers (like China or Russia) to intervene under similar rationales, bypassing multilateral consensus.

    “Este regreso al cuarto trasero, esta manera de interferir en la política ajena [...] pone en evidencia el estupor con que China reacciona...”

iii. Historical First and Legal Aberration

• [42:50] (Antonio Caño):
  • Notes it’s the first-ever direct US military intervention in South America, highlighting the risk to the international order.
  • Trump is uninterested in democracy:

    “Trump es un loco, pero no es un idiota. [...] el orden que él tiene en la cabeza, tiene que ver con la generación de riqueza y el sometimiento a Estados Unidos.”

iv. The “Golpe Blando” Debate

• [46:55] (Javier Caraballo):
  • Argues this was a “golpe blando” (soft coup):

    “Un grupo de militares entra en la residencia del presidente de madrugada, saca al presidente de la cama y se lo lleva a otro país. Es exactamente lo que ha ocurrido.”

  • Concludes Trump’s goal is Venezuelan oil, not democracy.

v. Dangers of Normalizing US Precedent

• [50:38] (Marta García):
  • Argues that justifying intervention via narco-threats is a dangerous precedent; if applied elsewhere, could justify intervention in Colombia, Mexico, or even Spain.
  • The “narco” rationale is a convenient pretext, not genuine concern.

vi. Three Scenarios for Venezuela’s Future

• [58:57] (Marta García):

  1. Chavista regime, US-tutelage: Internally strong Chavismo, effectively a client state (likened to Belarus with Putin).
  2. Democratic transition: Liberation of prisoners and new elections—a scenario deemed “the most improbable.”
  3. Complete chaos: Collapse of state control, risk of internecine violence or military fracture.

• [59:48] (Karina S.B.):

  • Dismisses likelihood of rebellion: “No hay rebelión interna. Lo que hay es una aplanadora de una fuerza. Hay un gran caos.”

vii. The Wider International Order

• [60:46] (Javier Caraballo & Rubén Amón):
  • Fear this marks a new era where “might makes right”:

    “¿Este es el nuevo orden internacional? Todos estamos de acuerdo en que esto es como lo de la Segunda Guerra Mundial y esto es lo que nos espera, esto se puede consolidar mañana.”

viii. Responsibility for Human Rights

• [62:05] (Carlos Alsina):
  • Stresses that if Trump claims to govern Venezuela, he’s responsible for any rights violations that follow.

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Karina Sainz Borgo (22:01):
  “Has cambiado a un dictador por otro. [...] Lo que yo más insisto es en lo que están incidiendo todas las ONG: los presos políticos. [...] El elemento petróleo es el catalizador.”

• Antonio Caño (42:50):
  “Venezuela es el primer país de Sudamérica que ha sido atacado por Estados Unidos. [...] Trump es un loco, pero no es un idiota. [...] No le interesa la democracia.”

• Javier Caraballo (46:55):
  “Esto se asemeja, vamos, yo lo calificaría de golpe blando.”

• Rubén Amón (41:03):
  “Este regreso al cuarto trasero, esta manera de interferir en la política ajena.”

• Marta García (39:20):
  “La prioridad es el control de las infraestructuras, no sólo del petróleo, en Venezuela.”

• Carlos Alsina (62:05):
  “Cualquier violación de los derechos humanos que se produzca a partir de hoy en Venezuela es responsabilidad de Donald Trump. [...] Sé que a él le da igual todo esto.”

4. Important Segment Timestamps

• [02:10] – Introduction of Karina Sainz Borgo
• [04:31] – Weather warning update (Rubén del Campo, AEMET)
• [14:59] – Spanish labor market update (Ignacio Rodríguez Burgos)
• [18:03] – Full recap of the Venezuelan crisis post-intervention
• [22:01] – Karina Sainz Borgo expresses deepening concern
• [28:42] – Interview with Daniela Moreno Coyle (Venezuela opposition)
• [39:20–50:38] – Open panel discussion: US motivations, legality, and implications
• [58:57] – Three possible scenarios for Venezuela (Marta García)
• [60:46] – Risks of new, precedent-setting international order
• [62:05] – Accountability and human rights in post-Maduro Venezuela

5. Tone and Style

The conversation balances intricacy, urgency, and skepticism. There is a pervasive tone of concern at the “new normal” being defined by US actions, coupled with a degree of resignation—emphasizing power politics over legal or democratic principles. The panelists are frank, occasionally wry, and unafraid to highlight uncomfortable truths or openly challenge naive optimism.

Summary Table: Key Segments & Participants

| Timestamp | Speaker(s) | Segment Focus | |------------|-----------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | 02:10 | Alsina, Karina S.B. | Venezuela intro | | 04:31 | Rubén del Campo (AEMET) | Spanish weather | | 14:59 | Ignacio Rodríguez Burgos | Labor market update | | 18:03 | Alsina | Venezuela: Events recap | | 22:01 | Karina Sainz Borgo | Warning: No change, just new boss | | 28:42 | Daniela Moreno Coyle | Opposition view: cautious optimism, challenges | | 39:20 | Panel (Marta, Rubén, Antonio)| US motives, democracy, legality | | 46:55 | Javier Caraballo | “Golpe blando”; precedent risk | | 58:57 | Marta García, Karina S.B. | Future scenarios for Venezuela | | 60:46 | Javier, Rubén Amón | New “might makes right” international order | | 62:05 | Carlos Alsina | Accountability for human rights violations |

Final Thoughts

The episode offers a sobering, multidimensional exploration of Venezuela's predicament post-Maduro. Rather than celebrating the dictatorship's fall, it asks tough questions about sovereignty, the fragility of democracy, the perils of great power politics, and the chilling message sent worldwide by the US intervention’s realpolitik logic. Panelists agree: Venezuela’s future—and the global order—are now more uncertain than ever.