Más de Uno – Tertulia: El techo de crecimiento de la ultraderecha

Onda Cero | Carlos Alsina | 12 de febrero de 2026

Overview – Main Theme

This episode of “Más de Uno” centers on the current situation of the Spanish far-right and the debates around its potential for growth (“el techo de crecimiento de la ultraderecha”). Anchored by Carlos Alsina and an expert panel, the tertulia analyses recent electoral results, the fragmentation and challenges of the left, the complexity in forming regional governments (Extremadura, Aragón), and the very question of whether the Spanish right-wing—particularly Vox—has room to increase its electoral appeal or if it’s reached a plateau. The show further examines Rufián’s proposal to reorganize the left, voter migration between parties, and the consequences of tactical alliances amid the prevailing polarization.

Key Points & Segment Breakdowns

Opening News Round-up (00:06 – 12:48)

• Weather Disruptions: Extreme winds impacting northern Spain, closures of schools and transport, especially in Cataluña.
• Political Turbulence: Confusion in newspapers over the strategy of the PP (People’s Party), whether to seek the PSOE’s (Socialist Party) abstention in Extremadura, or continue negotiating with Vox.
  • Alsina summarizes: "Estamos en tiempo de paripé porque en el fondo... Vox confirmará el matrimonio con el PP pero después de las elecciones autonómicas de Castilla y León." (01:01)
• Editorial and Cartoons: Reviews of national papers signal confusion and strategic ambiguity in party maneuvers, especially around possible deals to exclude Vox.
• Other topics covered: Rufián’s interview in El País, the lack of electoral law reform in Cataluña, fallout from the Adamuz train accident, and a critique of both Pedro Sánchez and Feijóo's handling of the tragedy ("Un Gobierno que no sabe pedir perdón pierde autoridad moral...", Alsina quoting Fidel Sáenz’s open letter, 05:04).

The Tertulia Begins – Main Panel and Tone Set (12:48 – 15:03)

• Panelists introduced: Ainhoa Martínez, Joaquín Manso, Toni Bolaño, Rubén Amón, Marta García Llera, with later input from Ignacio Urquizu.
• Initial Banter: Touches on poll stating Spain leads Europe in 'amorosa' satisfaction; light, ironic tone between panelists ("amores y abstencionismo sexual", 15:03–15:22).

The Far-Right, Rufián, and the Left’s Fragmentation

Rufián’s Interview and “La Izquierda de la Izquierda” (22:56–35:15)

• Rufián’s Proposal: Rufián proposes that ‘soberanista’ (regionalist/independentist) left parties coordinate to avoid leaving progressive voters without a non-PSOE alternative.
  • "Tenemos que inventarnos algo para no dejar huérfana a la gente progresista... que no quiere votar al PSOE." (Rufián, as quoted by Alsina, 25:19)
• Panelist critique:
  • Ainhoa Martínez (23:00): Argues this is already happening; sees Rufián's strategy as “marketiniana” and causing friction among past coalition partners.
  • Marta García (26:04): Questions the coherence between Rufián’s independentist claims and his current pan-Spain leftist aspirations.
  • Rubén Amón (29:25): Notes, “La situación de las izquierdas es la de la Santa Compaña, es una reunión de cadáveres”; the left is organizationally and electorally exhausted.
  • Toni Bolaño (30:15, 31:25): Points out the difficulty of uniting the egos and fracture among leftist brands and personalities.

Electoral Data and Sociology: Ignacio Urquizu's Analysis (35:51–44:35)

• Historical trends: Charts the fluctuating popularity of Spain’s ‘izquierda de la izquierda’ (PCE first, then Izquierda Unida, Podemos, Sumar), noting the PSOE’s inroads into this demographic.
• Current numbers:
  • PSOE draws about 45% of votes from the “extrema izquierda” (hard left)
  • Sumar: 11%, Podemos: 7.5%. Orphaned voters (“huérfanos”): only about 13% in the extreme left, much less than in other ideological groups.
  • “Si hay un sitio donde menos espacio hay para un nuevo partido es en la extrema izquierda...” (Urquizu, 41:26)
• Demographics: Average age 53, 54% women, mainly working-class and living in secondary cities, with relatively low university education rates.
• On Leadership: Only 10% of extreme-left see Rufián as preferred PM; most favor Sánchez.

Voter Migration and Vox’s Ceiling (44:35–54:03)

• Left-to-right movement: Around 1 million votes have shifted from PSOE to PP/Vox—approx. 600,000 to PP, 400,000 to Vox (Urquizu, 47:35). These migrations often come from “zonas de áreas metropolitanas”—ex-urban areas once supportive of Podemos or Ciudadanos, now fertile ground for Vox.
  • “La respuesta es que el centro de gravedad político se está desplazando hacia la derecha.” (Urquizu, 47:33)
• Drivers: Housing insecurity, generational malaise, lack of compelling progressive project.
• Potential strategies: General agreement that both main parties (PSOE/PP) may pursue letting Vox govern in hopes of voter disappointment, noting the risks ("si alguien quiere acabar con él [Vox]... que decepcionen. En el momento que decepcionen, seguramente el soufflé bajará." - Urquizu, 51:47).

The “Techo” of Vox, and the Paradoxes of Political Strategy

• Should PSOE Abstain to Allow PP Rule and Exclude Vox? (54:56–66:13)

  • Alsina and the panel examine the unique case of Extremadura, whether PSOE might abstain to allow PP to govern alone, the historic antipathy for pacts, and the lack of empirical evidence that PP-PSOE pacts would fuel Vox growth.
  • Joaquín Manso (61:02): “Damos por hecho que eso beneficiaría a Vox, pero en realidad no lo sabemos porque nunca se ha puesto en práctica.”
  • Urquizu provides polling showing that among PSOE voters, most would favor PSOE-PP pacts in places without majority (66:21).
  • Panel agrees that party militants and leadership are less open to such pacts than the general voting base, and mutual demonization plus strategic short-termism limit such grand bargains.
  • Rubén Amón (60:03): “La gran desgracia... es lo que conviene a Vox”.

• Meta-Discussion: The Spanish political system, especially since 2015, is trapped in a cycle of polarization and mutual exclusion, with the “no es no” philosophy essentially blocking any non-polarized governance solutions—much to Vox’s benefit.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On left-wing divisions:
  • "La situación de las izquierdas es la de la Santa Compaña, es una reunión de cadáveres..." – Rubén Amón (29:25)
• About political strategy with the far right:
  • “Si alguien quiere acabar con Vox, hay que conseguir que decepcionen. En el momento que decepcionen, seguramente el soufflé bajará.” – Ignacio Urquizu (51:47)
• On pacts and their unknown impact:
  • “Damos por hecho que eso beneficiaría a Vox, pero en realidad no lo sabemos porque nunca se ha puesto en práctica.” – Joaquín Manso (61:02)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:06–12:48: Headlines and political confusion in Extremadura & national news
• 12:48–15:03: Introduction of tertulia, icebreakers on satisfaction surveys
• 22:56–35:15: Rufián’s initiative and failure of left unity
• 35:51–44:35: Urquizu's data: history and sociology of Spain's "izquierda de la izquierda"
• 44:35–54:03: Voter migration, the far-right vote, and the future of Vox
• 54:56–66:13: Is a PSOE abstention possible, would PP-PSOE pacts help or hurt Vox, polling on pact preferences

Final Observations

Tone & Style:
The episode balances expert seriousness with sardonic humor, exemplified in their “tertuliano silente-mimo” joke and recurring meta-references to political déjà vu and “Groundhog Day” cycles.

Conclusion:
The panel ultimately suggests the limits on the far right’s growth are less demographic than systemic—dependent on how the mainstream parties interact with one another and the electorate’s growing frustration with polarization. Rufián’s proposal is seen as a symptom of the left’s exhaustion and fragmentation; meanwhile, Vox’s ceiling is only theoretical—its fortunes intimately tied to how both the left and mainstream right resolve their crises of leadership and strategy.

[End of summary—for full insight, see timestamps above for key discussions.]