Podcast Summary: Más de uno – Tertulia: Las derivadas económicas de la guerra en Irán

Date: March 30, 2026
Host: Onda Cero (Carlos Alsina, Miguel Ángel Aguilar)
Panelists: María Daván, Javier Caraballo, David Jiménez Torres, Juan Ignacio Crespo (analista financiero), Manuel Borja-Villel (ex director del Museo Reina Sofía)

1. Overview

This episode’s main focus is the economic impact of the ongoing war in Iran, as well as a wide-ranging discussion on current political, social, and cultural affairs. The roundtable dives into the global repercussions of the conflict — especially on markets, energy prices, and inflation — and how Spain is positioned to weather an escalating crisis. The conversation also touches on domestic political shifts, cultural debates (such as the perennial controversy over the location of Picasso’s "Guernica"), and the looming Andalusian elections.

2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

I. Actualidad Internacional: Guerra en Irán y Oriente Medio

• Update of the Conflict

  • 31 days into the war, the situation continues to deteriorate: increased direct involvement from actors like Yemen's Houthi rebels, missile threats in the Red Sea, ongoing Israeli operations in southern Lebanon, and potential US-Iran negotiations ([25:20]-[27:55]).
  • President Trump oscillates between promises of imminent peace and further escalation — sending conflicting messages ([12:32], [27:55]).

• Diplomatic Maneuvers & US Military Bases in Spain

  • Contradictory reports about Spain's cooperation on US military flights to the conflict ([05:14]-[05:16]).
  • Tension between public anti-war stances and logistical support behind the scenes.

• Impact on Global Economy

  • Markets spooked, with sharp falls in Asian indices and oil prices nearing $110/bbl ([35:20]).
  • Growing predictions that a protracted war could trigger a global recession ([27:55]-[29:11]).
  • The specter of inflation and energy shocks hangs over Spain and Europe.

II. Derivada Económica: Análisis de Juan Ignacio Crespo

Segment Start: [40:10]

• Ciclos históricos de crisis en Oriente Medio

  • Crespo draws comparisons with past Middle East crises, noting that acute phases last ~3 months.

    “Las crisis en Oriente Medio suelen durar tres meses en la fase aguda, que es la fase en la que el precio del petróleo y del gas se dispara.” ([41:17], Juan Ignacio Crespo)

  • The “critical phase” may be halfway over, but unpredictable elements could still extend turbulence ([44:27]).

• Proyección de precios y riesgo de recesión

  • Oil could hit $150/bbl before sharply receding — provided the crisis ends by late spring ([44:27]).
  • Spain and the global economy are exposed to short-term inflation spikes but not, in Crespo’s view, to catastrophic recession — unless crisis timing or additional shocks prove exceptionally severe ([43:35]-[44:27]).

• Spanish Resilience & Need for Bolder Measures

  • Spain is well placed, with record tax revenues in 2025, to enact stronger social protection and offset the shock ([46:48]):

    “Hay que tener en cuenta que la Hacienda española lleva recaudando cantidades extraordinarias… en los últimos años.” ([46:48], Crespo)

  • Government’s response thus far is seen as insufficient even by officials.

• Logistics & Maritime Risks

  • Blockade threats in the Strait of Hormuz dwarf, but do not eliminate, concerns in Suez/Red Sea; most global trade has so far seen minimal shipping cost effects ([48:38]).

• Market Psychology: Trump’s Volatility

  • Even as analysts recognize Trump’s unpredictability, markets continue to react sharply to his statements:

    “Una de las cosas que se ha propuesto el presidente Trump es volver loco a todo el mundo. Y lo ha conseguido.” ([50:59], Crespo)

III. Contexto Político Nacional

Segment: [56:05]-[77:54]

• Government Response and “Escudo Social”

  • Pedro Sánchez leverages a “no a la guerra” message reminiscent of 2003, but analysts note less popular resonance and limited electoral impact ([56:05]-[57:48], [57:48]-[60:41]).

    “El ‘no a la guerra’… apenas tenía incidencia en el electorado.” ([57:48], Javier Caraballo)

• Recent Cabinet Changes

  • Cabinet reshuffle analyzed as largely cosmetic, not transformative:

    “Yo he acogido estos cambios de gobierno con una absoluta indiferencia porque sinceramente, yo no espero nada de esta legislatura.” ([74:07], Caraballo)

  • The real power and course remain with Sánchez; the new appointees, Carlos Cuerpo and Arcadi España, are dubbed technocrats or placeholders ([76:01], [77:54]).

IV. Dossier Cultural: El Guernica y la Memoria Histórica

Segment Start: [14:32]

• Renewed Basque Demand for “Guernica” Transfer to Bilbao

  • Annual plea from the Basque president, rehearsed and rebuffed over concerns for the painting’s fragility.

    “El Guernica… está bien dónde está, en Madrid, y es algo que forma parte de la historia de España.” ([18:11], Javier Caraballo)

• Conservators' Perspective

  • Ex-director Manuel Borja-Villel gives a resounding “no” to moving the masterpiece, citing past damage and the strict necessity of keeping it at the Reina Sofía ([20:55]–[25:15]).

    “Si los técnicos del Reina Sofía vienen diciendo con argumentos que es muy, muy peligroso, habría que hacerles caso.” ([21:39], Borja-Villel)
    “El cuadro está en condiciones... está estable, no ha cambiado sus condiciones desde que llegó a España y por tanto está súper bien cuidado.” ([23:53], Borja-Villel)

V. Elecciones Andaluzas: Encuestas y Clima Político

Segment: [71:14]-[83:07]

• Polls Solidly Favor PP

  • Juanma Moreno likely to secure or come close to an absolute majority; PSOE facing historic lows; VOX stable or modestly up; left-wing splinters struggle to clear thresholds ([71:14], [80:36]).

    “En esta ocasión va a las urnas el presidente andaluz con un 51% de aprobación.” ([83:07], Caraballo)

• Low Impact of War Rhetoric

  • “No a la guerra” stance not moving the electoral needle; opposition capitalizes on voter fatigue and economic anxiety ([57:48]).

• Prudent, Non-Polarizing Campaign

  • Moreno’s low-key strategy for Holy Week illustrates confidence in the polls and anticipation of a smooth victory ([82:13]).

3. Notable Quotes

“El problema no es tanto que Trump no pare de hablar, sino lo que dice. El príncipe de Arabia Saudí me tiene que lamer el culo. Eso dijo, literalmente.”
— María Daván ([29:16])

“No haría falta tomar más medidas para amortiguar los efectos del conflicto?... La prueba de que son necesarias más medidas es que al día siguiente de aprobarse el decreto… el ministro de Transporte dijo que eran insuficientes.”
— Juan Ignacio Crespo ([46:48])

“El Guernica de Picasso nunca se hizo para el País Vasco, jamás ha estado el País Vasco…”
— Javier Caraballo ([18:11])

“El ‘no a la guerra’… apenas tenía incidencia en el electorado.”
— Javier Caraballo ([57:48])

“Las crisis en Oriente Medio suelen durar tres meses en la fase aguda…”
— Juan Ignacio Crespo ([41:17])

“Una de las cosas que se ha propuesto el presidente Trump es volver loco a todo el mundo. Y lo ha conseguido.”
— Juan Ignacio Crespo ([50:59])

4. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Press roundup and Artemis II mission: [00:00]–[03:09]
• Coverage on US/Iran conflict, military logistics: [03:09]–[08:34]
• War in Iran: political, diplomatic, and economic updates: [08:34]–[35:20]
• Debate sobre el Guernica: [14:32]–[25:19]
• Economic deep-dive with Juan Ignacio Crespo: [40:10]–[52:34]
• Cabinet reshuffle and national politics: [56:05]–[77:54]
• Andalusian elections and polling discussion: [71:14]–[83:07]

5. Tone & Style

• The panel maintains a rigorous yet conversational tone, combining sharp political analysis with candid humor (e.g., commentary on Trump’s language, playful banter about studio conditions).
• The show continuously grounds national developments in their international and economic contexts, highlighting both immediate impacts and broader historical parallels.

6. Conclusion

This tertulia effectively weaves together the urgent global context of the Iran war, its rippling economic impact, and the ways these shocks interact with Spain’s own fiscal and political calendar. The consensus: while Spain is relatively well positioned, the volatility of the current crisis — both in global markets and the domestic political arena — could have unpredictable consequences. The panel underscores the complexity of anticipating outcomes when leaders behave in “disparatado” (outrageous) fashion, and government responses remain sluggish or symbolic. The mood: cautious, skeptical, with persistent calls for greater seriousness in governance and more robust contingency planning.