Podcast Summary: Masters in Business – At The Money: How to Manage Your News & Data Flow

Episode Details:

• Title: At The Money: How to Manage Your News & Data Flow
• Host: Bloomberg’s Barry Ritholtz
• Guest: Michael Hiltzik, Pulitzer Prize-winning Business Reporter for the Los Angeles Times
• Release Date: August 13, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Masters in Business, Barry Ritholtz delves into the overwhelming influx of economic data that inundates investors daily. To navigate this "fire hose of numbers," Ritholtz welcomes Michael Hiltzik, a renowned business reporter with extensive experience in analyzing and interpreting complex financial data.

Managing the Data Deluge

Michael Hiltzik's Approach to Data Management ([01:57]): Hiltzik begins by emphasizing the importance of selective attention amidst the vast sea of data.

“Mostly I try to ignore most of it and I curate what I use and what I rely on. And basically the way I work is I start with a topic that I want to explore, a subject I want to explore, and then I go search out the data that I need and that way I'm not affected.” ([01:57])

This method allows him to focus on relevant information without getting bogged down by unnecessary details.

Reliable Data Sources

Preferred Sources for Economic Data ([02:51] & [03:40]): Hiltzik highlights key sources he trusts for macroeconomic and domestic economic data:

“I think you can't do better than the BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Bureau of Economic Analysis.” ([02:51])

He also relies on Fred, the Federal Reserve Economic Data service from the St. Louis Fed, for visual representations of data:

“Fred charts... if there's a month that passes without it, that's rare.” ([03:40])

These sources provide consistent and reliable data essential for accurate analysis.

Assessing Credibility and Accuracy

Evaluating Data Sources ([03:58] & [04:55]): Hiltzik outlines his criteria for assessing data credibility:

“I look for consistency. I look for, you know, my father was a CPA and he used to say, you know, check the arithmetic.” ([03:58])

He emphasizes verifying data through multiple sources to identify outliers and discrepancies, ensuring the information's integrity.

Common Data Quality Issues ([05:05] – [07:03]): Hiltzik points out frequent pitfalls in data reporting, such as the lack of inflation adjustment and improper trend analysis:

“Data that's produced without an inflation deflator... is something that I try to fix if I can.” ([05:05])

He also criticizes trend line charts that don’t start at zero, advocating for clearer representations to avoid misinterpretation.

Tools and Software for Data Analysis

Useful Analytical Tools ([07:48] & [08:00]): While acknowledging the utility of Fred, Hiltzik also mentions other tools like FactSet and Y Charts, although he notes their subscription cost may be prohibitive:

“I've seen interpretations of data just be all over the place... heavily dependent on tools.” ([07:48])

For accessible alternatives, he recommends Yahoo Finance, stressing the importance of cross-verifying figures with original sources.

Evaluating Trade Organizations and Think Tanks

Skepticism Towards Industry Sources ([08:58] – [10:19]): Hiltzik warns about the biases inherent in data from trade organizations and industry sources:

“If I'm looking for a figure that they produce me... with the caveat that that's who they are. You can't always trust them.” ([08:58])

Regarding think tanks, he differentiates based on ideological leanings:

“The Peterson Institute of International Economics, I find consistently pretty good... Sometimes their analysis is so infected by ideology...” ([10:19])

This discernment is crucial for maintaining objectivity in data interpretation.

Assessing Public Companies and Forward Guidance

Analyzing Corporate Data ([11:25] – [12:58]): Hiltzik discusses the reliability of forward guidance from public companies, using Tesla and Elon Musk as examples:

“Forward guidance to me is basically, you know, trying to shoehorn a long term perspective into a snapshot.” ([11:25])

He expresses skepticism towards overly optimistic forecasts, noting that they are often unreliable predictors of actual performance.

Handling Skepticism Towards Government Data

Trust in Government-Produced Data ([13:39] – [14:48]): Addressing concerns about the integrity of government data, Hiltzik affirms his trust in agencies like the BLS and BEA:

“The data... are the benchmarks. And we know that BLS and BEA... they're transparent about it.” ([13:39])

He acknowledges political attacks on these institutions but maintains that their data remains foundational for economic analysis.

Additional Pitfalls for Investors

Navigating Economic Data Challenges ([14:59] – [16:04]): Hiltzik advises investors to remain vigilant about the sources and interpretations of economic data, cautioning against:

• Second or Third Order Interpretations: Relying on layered analyses that may distort original data.
• Projections and Market Activity: Recognizing the inherent uncertainty in forecasts.
• Overreliance on Trends like Liquidity: Understanding that macroeconomic theories may not always translate into actionable insights.

“Projections are never of great value... I think we all know these are red flags.” ([16:04])

Conclusion

Barry Ritholtz summarizes the key strategies for managing economic data:

• Use Original Sources: Prioritize data directly from trusted institutions like BLS, BEA, and Fred.
• Adjust for Inflation and Seasonality: Ensure data is contextually accurate.
• Critically Evaluate Trade Organizations and Think Tanks: Recognize potential biases.
• Be Skeptical of Corporate Forward Guidance: Understand the limitations of company projections.
• Apply Common Sense: Use discernment to navigate the vast influx of economic information.

Hiltzik’s insights provide a robust framework for investors to effectively manage and interpret economic data, ensuring informed and strategic decision-making.

Notable Quotes:

• “I start with a topic that I want to explore, a subject I want to explore, and then I go search out the data that I need and that way I'm not affected.” – Michael Hiltzik ([01:57])

• “Data that's produced without an inflation deflator... is something that I try to fix if I can.” – Michael Hiltzik ([05:05])

• “Forward guidance to me is basically, you know, trying to shoehorn a long term perspective into a snapshot.” – Michael Hiltzik ([11:25])

• “Projections are never of great value... I think we all know these are red flags.” – Michael Hiltzik ([16:04])

This episode serves as a comprehensive guide for investors seeking to streamline their data consumption, emphasizing the importance of source credibility, data accuracy, and critical analysis in the ever-evolving landscape of financial information.