Democrats just flipped TWO Republican seats in Florida — including the state House district that includes Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home. Is this the start of a massive 2026 midterm wave against Trump?

In this wide-ranging Substack Live conversation, Chris Cillizza and Matt break down:

— The shocking 30-0 trend: Democrats flipping 30 state legislative seats since Trump’s inauguration… Republicans flipping zero

— Why Florida special elections (Tampa Bay + Mar-a-Lago) signal major trouble for GOP in 2026

— California governor race meltdown: Jungle primary chaos, identity politics debate cancellation, and real risk of two Republicans advancing

— Senate math for 2026: Which seats (Ohio, Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Texas?) could actually flip if Democrats keep over-performing by 5–10 points

— Why “history doesn’t matter anymore” — the power of the current zeitgeist and independent voter shift

— Trump as the ultimate “weather creator” in politics

— Redistricting revenge wars, authenticity in media, and why legacy outlets are copying our style

— And MUCH more!

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Dems Flip Trump’s Mar-a-Lago District & More: 2026 Midterm Wave Starting? (w/ Chris Cillizza)