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- [00:00]
A
Welcome to Latinovote21, a pop up podcast from Gotham Gazette featuring Eli Valentin, a frequent Gotham Gazette columnist and political analyst. This is Ben Max from Gotham Gazette. I'm the executive editor and happy to be joining Eli for this initial episode of the podcast and it's accompanying Valentin's Gotham Gazette column series of the same name, Latinovote21, about the Latino vote and the consequential 2021 New York City elections that are well underway and we're fast approaching the June primaries. That will of course, then be followed by the general election. All of city government is on the ballot this year. New Yorkers are electing a new mayor, new city comptroller, new borough presidents, new city council members and other new office holders through those June primaries and the fall general election. And just a note, if you're listening and you're not registered to vote and you want to participate, you have until May 28th to register. So get there. The Latino vote in this election, in this Democratic primary that is the focus of the city, given the overwhelming Democratic voter registration in the city, is expected to see about, or maybe a little bit over 20% Latino voters in that primary electorate across the city in the race for mayor and other citywide offices. The Latino vote is pivotal in those citywide offices. It's also essential in a number of borough president and city council races, especially in the Bronx, especially in parts of Queens and especially in parts of Manhattan. There's other pockets as well, of course, and we'll get into all of that with Eli Valentin in just a moment. All of it is part of the discussion around both the power of the Latino vote as well as fair and representative representation in city government for Latino New Yorkers. Especially important coming out of the devastation of the COVID 19 pandemic, which disproportionately affected Latino New Yorkers in terms of fatalities, sickness, job loss and much more. So there is so much at stake here in these elections, so, so much to know, so much to discuss. And that is why Eli Valentin is working with us at Gotham Gazette in writing this series of columns on the Latino vote in the 2021 elections. And now we're producing this pop up podcast on the same subject that will feature some similar material as the columns, but also some very different discussions. Eli Valentin is an adjunct professor at Union Theological. He's a political analyst, he's a former political consultant, and he's worked in both city and state government. And as I mentioned, he's written a number of columns with us at Gotham Gazette and that series is ongoing. And you should find Those Latino Vote 21 columns at GothamGazette.com under the Columnist drop down menu, along with all of our Gotham Gazette extensive coverage of the 2021 New York City elections and our coverage of city and state government and much more. You can find all of these episodes of the LatinoVote 21 podcast on the Gotham Gazette website, and they will also be particularly labeled as Latino Vote 21 in the max and Murphy podcast feed on all podcast platforms. That, of course, is the other podcast that I host with Jarrett Murphy of City Limits, where we have on lots of guests to discuss New York City politics and these consequential elections, including lots of candidates for offices. All right, so today on this first episode of Latino Vote 21, I'm interviewing Eli about the Latino vote and the 2021 city elections. Some of his thoughts so far, including elements of the columns he's already written in the series for Gotham Gazette, as well as key issues and themes, developments in the elections thus far, and what will be coming up in the columns and podcast episodes. And for most of those episodes, Eli will host, and he'll be joined by special guests on interesting themes and topics like the Latino vote in the Bronx, which has been the city's Latino power center for many years, and the Latino vote in Queens, which may or may not become the city's Latino power center. Tune in for a podcast episode on that and you'll figure out if that's the trend. And that's of course, not to forget Upper Manhattan and other parts of the city as we head towards the June primaries and beyond in this pivotal city election year. So let's dig in. Eli, how you doing?
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Great. How are you, Ben?
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I'm good, I'm good. Sorry for the long introduction, but I wanted to cover a lot there. And I'm really happy that we're working on this together. And we've been so happy to host your columns at Gotham Gazette. So, big picture here, Latinos in New York City and Latino voters in New York City elections. What are some of the key sort of big picture items that folks should know?
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B
Well, as it's been mentioned for a long time that the Latino vote, like the Latino population in general, is a sleeping giant. It is growing, continues to grow, and projections show that Latinos will continue to grow nationally, but especially here in New York. And we are starting to see that growth within the voting population. So now, as it was mentioned, Latino voters are, in terms of all registered voters, they're the largest ethnic group not only in New York City, but also in New York State. Among Democratic voters, they are second after African American voters. So the numbers are growing. The only thing that I would point out is that while there have been victories in terms of getting Latinos to register to vote, but there's still a huge challenge when it comes to getting them to the polls. I think that elections like the one we're about to have will show whether Latinos will become the power base that I believe that it can be. I project possibly a little over 20% of the Democratic electorate to be Latinos. And this would be a slight bump from the last time that we had a big turnout in a municipal election, as well as turnover with all the elected officials being term limited out.
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A
Right. And that was 2013. We had very similar situation where we have this year with all the term limits coming through after they were extended, of course, and you had a whole new class of city government elected. A few incumbents were eligible to run for re election and then they did. But we had a new mayor, new comptroller, new public advocate, new borough presidents and such. So we're talking about there's somewhere in the neighborhood of three and a half million Democratic voters registered in the city. We're talking for this election estimates are anywhere from 700,000 maybe to 900,000 turnout. I mean, people don't really know the first June primary ranked choice voting. Now, there's a pretty big field of formidable mayoral candidates, but we're also coming out of the pandemic. It's very hard to. Very hard to tell. Right?
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B
Yeah.
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Do you. Do you feel like turnout will be a little bit up because of recent trends we've seen with more civic engagement, or do you think it'll be. I mean, it's going to be a disheartening percentage no matter what. But will it be relatively better than we've seen in 2013? I guess is the only real comparison right now.
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B
Yeah, I believe it will be better because as you just said, Ben, we have seen an increase in voting participation. We see it in New York and we began to see it in local elections. I believe in the gubernatorial primary in 2018, where we saw an astronomical increase compared to 2014. Last year, we even admit of a pandemic, but the turnout was fairly decent across the city. So I believe we will probably be more closer to the 800,000 range in terms of voter turnout, and maybe this will be for a future episode. But I do believe that this increase in voting participation, which is obviously an excellent thing. But I consider that sort of a Trump factor where just the civic engagement has increased and we have seen it in voting participation nationally, but especially here
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A
in New York right now. The 2018 jump was significant, as you mentioned, and it's yet to be seen if it carries over into the city elections. But we can hope. We were under 700,000 in the 2013 mayoral primary that Bill de Blasio won. So we'll see. We'll see what this one looks like. Maybe with the also with the expansion of absentee voting due to the pandemic, early voting is now at play. Maybe that all helps with turnout some. And listen, we have this eight candidate, top tier of mayoral candidates, plus others who are on the ballot, but all eight of them are spending. They've all qualified for matching funds and they're spending a lot of money to get out their message. So maybe we'll see. Nice, spike. So on the Latino vote, how are you thinking about sort of, you know, there's been a lot of this discussion that your columns are somewhat dispelling. Right. The Latino vote, that's a very big term and umbrella, but it's not a monolith. And now that's becoming cliche to say. But how are you thinking about, especially for this Democratic primary, because we're so focused on that and that's where the vast majority of voters will vote. How are you thinking about what the Latino vote looks like other than that broad stroke of the Latino vote?
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B
Yeah. Well, some observers have noted, and I would agree, I would include myself there, that the Latino vote, just to use the terminology, I believe they will be the swing vote in this election. There is clearly no. Well, Diane Morales is right. She's a candidate. She's getting a lot of attention now, especially among progressive groups. But in spite of that attention, she's getting from a certain sector, we don't see the same excitement among Latinos as we saw, for instance, in the Freddy Ferrer candidacy back in 2005 when he did win the Democratic nomination. So that sense of the historical importance to electing a Latino for the first time as a mayor, I don't sense that on the ground across Latino communities. At least I don't sense it for a Diane Morales candidacy. That's why I believe folks are correctly saying some folks that the Latino vote will be a swing vote. I don't think that there will be any candidate that will overwhelmingly win the majority of Latino votes. And I believe that that makes them even more important because whoever invests in that vote, it will benefit Them. And I believe that when I think of the top tier candidates, I believe that Eric Adams and Diane Morales will probably get the lion's share of the Latino vote.
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A
Interesting. And we know among the top tier of eight, certainly candidates like Andrew Yang, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley are absolutely trying to target Latino voters, get Latino endorsers. Note that Scott Stringer has Latino family members. I saw some via Conmaya literature for Maya Wiley. And then of course, Kathryn Garcia is also looking to appeal to Latino voters. She has a last name of Garcia, but that was a married name. She's now divorced, but that continues to be her name. So as we look at where the key boroughs and kind of neighborhoods are of concentrated Latino voters, what are where the highest populations on the list?
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B
Well, the Bronx continues to be the center of Latino political participation. They have the highest number. The Bronx is the one borough that is a majority Latino borough. So we will see that reflected in the voting participation. Once again, we'll look to the Bronx. By the way, Eric Adams is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. And we'll continue to see that from not just Eric Adams, but from others as well. Diane Morales has brought on board Semeles Lopez, who ran for Congress last year for the Jose Serrano seat. And they're doing a lot of organizing work in the Bronx. So, you know, we will expect to see Bronx again as the center of Latino voting participation. But the interesting thing is, as you mentioned in the introduction, Ben, is that Queens is now becoming a base of Latino voting participation. Formerly it was Manhattan with East Harlem and the Lower east side and obviously Washington Heights forming the chunks of that Latino vote in Manhattan. But now Queens is becoming a key, key block for many. And we see this even in terms of the increase in Latino representation, which, interesting enough, we see a lot of Latinas being elected into office, like Jessica Ramos, Jessica Gonzalez Rojas, AOC of course, and Catalina Cruz. So a lot of the recent elected officials, right, that, that have one office, they've been mostly Latinas, which is really, really interesting. But in terms of voting participation, Mount Queens has surpassed Manhattan for the first time.
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A
Very interesting. And then obviously there are pockets of, as you mentioned, Manhattan, maybe some in Brooklyn, some small pockets elsewhere. You got it. Some of the newer members of this group of Latino elected officials in the city. But then there are also some older stalwarts of Latino representation. You mentioned Eric Adams really putting in a lot of work in the Bronx. He got the big endorsement of Ruben Diaz Jr. The Bronx borough President, who limited out was going to run for mayor, then decided not to. We have several other top Latino elected officials in the city, some of whom have made their choices, like Diaz Jr. Backing Eric Adams. And then there's others.
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B
Yeah, yeah, yeah. In the Bronx. I'd also mention Jose Rivera and I mentioned him because he's been, I believe he's probably from, I'll say this in a non pejorative way, but he's one of the few from the old guard that are left. One of the pioneers that was first elected in the late 80s as the Bronx was beginning to shift in many. Right. In certain parts of the Bronx. And Jose Rivera is one of the last, one of the last of the Mohicans from that generation. He has also endorsed Eric Adams in the Bronx. So yeah, so we see a number of folks seeing the importance of investing in Latino neighborhoods in the Bronx and they see the importance of that vote.
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A
And we also have Richie Torres, who has recently been elected to Congress. He came out very forcefully and as a co chair of the campaign of Andrew Yang. So he's a Bronx representative Afro Latino who is supporting Andrew Yang. Nydia Velasquez, another member of Congress. She's with Maya Wiley. So we see some of the top elected officials of Latino descent are split, which gets back to your point that you see, you know, if that's mirrored. Obviously endorsements can mean different things and we don't, we don't know exactly how much power each one will have and we can sort of guess and we can watch what the different endorsers are doing for the candidates. But, but to your point about the Latino vote writ large probably being split up a bit, we see the, some of the top elected officials being split. We saw Representative Adriano Espaillat go with Scott Stringer, but then rescind that endorsement. So he at least, at least at the time of our discussion, he is sort of now a free agent again. And he does clearly have a strong base in upper Manhattan and part of the Bronx that would be valuable to anyone who might win his endorsement. And then you mention, of course, AOC Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, who has not endorsed the mayoral race, although notably she has endorsed in a pretty big way in the city comptroller race for Brad Lander, the Brooklyn City Council member, and she helped cut an ad for him. So she's out there Latino vote, young vote, progressive vote. You know, she's out there obviously as one of the biggest, you know, prize endorsers that may or may not get involved in the mayoral race. Indications at this point are that she's staying out, but you never know. And obviously given what we've seen in the race, the people running sort of more in her territory of the political ideology are Maya Wiley and Diane Morales. Morales further to the left, certainly in most ways, but Wiley's not too far off. Stringer's been in that neighborhood too. But with the sexual harassment and misconduct allegations swirling around him, it would be very, very hard to see Ocasio Cortez jumping in for him. So that's one big outstanding question on the Latino vote. And what could sway more Latino voters to move would be what does Espail do now? What does AOC do? Anybody else you're watching for? Any other thoughts on the sort of endorsement picture? There's obviously also lots of groups. You know, it's not just the elected officials, there's. There's groups that do a lot of organizing. You know, I saw, for example, make the Road Action, the political arm of make the Road New York, came out with its endorsements going with Diane Morales number one and Maya Reilly number two. So, you know, in ranked choice voting, people can, can do that with their endorsements. Anything else, anything else on that side, you know, that you're watching in terms of endorsements or major players?
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B
Yeah. Well, I think AOC would be the big prize, interestingly enough, not necessarily for the Latino vote. And this is an interesting, for me, an interesting dynamic is that when we look at her victory, she did not win the overwhelming majority of Latino votes, particularly in the Bronx. So you know, her base was that progressive base in Western Queens. And I say that because for the most part, and we've heard it a lot, but for the most part the Latino electorate is those that vote is still ideologically, fairly, I would say now, more moderate. It was more conservative when it came to some social issues, not economic issues obviously, but pretty conservative, much more moderate. Now that there's a lot more participation among the 18 to 35 year old crowd, we see a slight bump in terms of voting patterns, but the Latino electorate is still for the most part pretty moderate. So the AOC attraction is more the being proud of having a young Latina in the halls of Congress rather than an alignment because of or an ideological alignment. I'll say that nonetheless, I think that her endorsement is significant and would be significant if she were to make a pick. And by the way, I know the Morales crowd is really pushing for that. So let's see. I mean, it's a Latina. I don't know what that would mean. For her. But I know the Morales crowd would definitely love that endorsement.
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A
Right. And again, what you get out there also gets a little bit at the fact that Ruben Diaz Jr. Goes with Eric Adams, who's clearly running on a more moderate campaign. Public safety, economic revival. Again, we know Latino voters are not necessarily anywhere close to a monolith, but issues that do come up often are around public safety, small businesses, economic opportunity, and education, of course, huge issue in Latino communities. And it's not so much about running further to the left or really about set ideologies. It's about certain sort of core issues.
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B
The bread and butter issues.
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A
Yeah, bread and butter issues. Right. And again, this is where, you know, we often talk about different ethnic groups and such, but a lot of times there's. There's plenty of crossover among folks of different backgrounds, and the core issues that matter to people, and those things also change based on what's happening around us. The pandemic, obviously, being a key case, and then public safety, the rise in gun violence. We've seen challenges around. Remote school are obviously top of mind, people. Is it safe to go back to schools and, you know, trying to reopen schools, all of that. So all these issues swirling. I also will note City Council member Carlos Menchaca was running for mayor. He's Mexican American. He's now backing Andrew Yang. So he left the race and supports Yang for mayor. So he's another prominent Latino voice in the city. And we're not naming everybody, Right? You name several officials, especially Latinas, who've recently won elections. We've talked about some of the more prominent names, but there's still many others, including folks like Carlina Rivera, who's running for reelection to the City Council and trying to be the City Council speaker. She hasn't endorsed in the mayoral race. There's all sorts of other names and prominent figures we could be mentioning here, but it's a good thing there's not enough time to mention everyone. So a few other key races where Latinos and Latino votes really matter. The borough. There's obviously the mayoral race. That also relates to the city comptroller race, which is wide open. The public advocate race. Jumani Williams is expected to be reelected easily. But then we get into the borough president races. Before we do that and get your thoughts on both, especially the Bronx and the Brooklyn borough president races, we do need to mention that there's a Republican primary for mayor and there's two candidates on the ballot, and one of them is Latino Fernando Mateo of Dominican birth, I believe. And so he is a prominent voice in this election cycle, even if the Republican primary is far second on people's minds in the mayoral election season. But on the borough president races, what are you watching here in the Bronx in Brooklyn?
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B
Well, I'll start with the Bronx because the Bronx has pretty much, well, the only borough that has had a Latino representative. So I'm looking at the Bronx. You know, we, we've had Ruben Diaz Jr. Adolfo Carrion, we had Freddy Ferrell, who was the first, I believe. No, Badillo was also, I believe, borough president. But I look at that because there are a number of Latinos that are on the ballot, like Fernando Cabrera, Luis Pulveda, and I believe that. And Vanessa Gibson, Natalia Fernandez, and I believe that Latinos may actually lose representation in Borough hall in the Bronx. And the reason I say that is because there are some significant Latino elected officials that have some name recognition over the years. Right. We have Cabrera, that's been in the council for almost 12 years. Sepulveda has been in the state legislature for a number of years, first in the assembly, now in the Senate. Natalia Fernandez is more recent, at least compared to them both. And I believe that there's a possibility that those Latinos will split the vote, allowing someone like Vanessa Gibson to possibly win this race again. And I'll say this, the black vote in the Bronx is significant and it cannot be taken for granted. And therefore, I believe that Vanessa Gibson has a really good shot at this seat. And that could present the possibility that we will have two African American women as borough wide representatives in the Bronx, being that the District Attorney is an African American female. And if Gibson wins, and I believe it could be a possibility, we would have another one. So I believe that's one.
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A
Clark. Yeah.
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B
Yes.
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A
Yeah. That's a very interesting breakdown in the Bronx. Borough president race is very, you know, seems, seems pretty wide open. Although Gibson has locked up a lot of endorsements. And that's quite interesting. Every time, every time we're talking about a different element of this, you know, different names pop to my mind. And, you know, I realized, oh, we should have listed this name and that name. And again, it goes back to the fact that there are many prominent Latino elected officials in the city. And the one I was just thinking of was Idonis Rodriguez, the city council member who's backing Eric Adams. You know, he's right in that upper Manhattan territory with Espail, with Carmen de la Rosso, who is now going, trying to go from the State assembly to the City Council. Yes. So a Lot going on. All right, we're going to dig into the Bronsboro president race in another column that you're going to write and maybe on another podcast episode here. So that's a brief sketch. Brooklyn, as we said, it's the borough with the fourth largest Latino population, which is saying something given how it's got the biggest population of any of the boroughs. So not a heavy, heavy Latino population in Brooklyn, but definitely some pockets. But in the borough president race, a prominent Latino elected official is at least among the favorites.
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B
Yes, that's Antonio Reynoso, who's been in the council for a number of years and for two terms. So I believe he has a strong shot. Not because of the Latino vote, which, as you accurately said, there's small pockets of Latinos in Brooklyn. Bushwick, traditionally a more Puerto Rican vote there. That's been there for a while. That's. That's less of the case now with gentrification. And there's also Williamsburg, which is represented by Antonio Reynolds. So there's still a pocket of Puerto Rican voters there. But I don't believe it's the Latino vote where that will be the deciding factor in this race. This could be a race between. I think it breaks down ideologically here as well, like Queens, where you have more of the. We'll call it the centrist, the more established Democratic base that's more in the central Brooklyn, and I believe Robert Carnegie will make a play there. But then you have the progressives, the, for example, the Julia Salazar crowd that helped elect her to the Senate, defeating a longtime Puerto Rican elected official, Martin Delan. And so we see an increase in Williamsburg and Greenpoint with that, influenced by gentrification. But they're very much on the progressive, very progressive side of the ideological right segment. And I believe that's where Reynoso will make a play.
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A
Yeah, no, he's clearly there. And it's such an interesting trend that you're noting with some of the most prominent younger Latino elected officials, from AOC to Jessica Ramos and others in Queens that you mentioned to Reynoso and Salazar and others in Brooklyn that are, you know, not necessarily sort of fully aligned ideologically with some of the older Latino voters, but are working with progressives and younger voters of all backgrounds. And so those are some pretty interesting trends. And of course, one of the keys for some of these candidates is can you merge sort of the ideological progressives that you're more aligned with with some of the folks from your, you know, your ethnic group, your block, you know, your sort of your people across the spectrum because they want to see more representation, you know, of their. Their own background in office. Or does representation not trump ideology? You know, which way does it go? Those are the considerations people have to make. All right, so that's really interesting, too, in terms of Brooklyn and how Reynoso might fare in a very competitive race there with Robert Kornegie. As you mentioned, Assemblymember Joanne Simon. There's other formidable candidates there, so that'll be another interesting one. All right, we're gonna say goodbye shortly, but there are more episodes of the podcast to come and more columns. You are watching closely, though several City Council races. Do you want to just briefly mention a few of those that are most interesting to you? And then you'll obviously be digging into more of those in the future? And actually, you already have. In your latest Gotham Gazette, Colum looked at some of the City Council races in the Bronx that are most relevant to the Latino vote. But why don't you highlight a few of those City Council races for us before we say goodbye for this initial episode?
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B
Yeah, there's some really hotly contested races, which I believe is a great thing because this may spur an increase in the Latino vote generally. So this is a very good thing and possibly one of the positive outcomes regarding term limits. Right. But the one I'm really looking at is the 14th council district, because there are really formidable candidates in that district, some that have a long history in that district, doing a lot of community work or participation within the Democratic Party in the Bronx. There are four that have almost maxed out in public funding. And so they have money, they have community support. So I believe that the 14th council district, which is currently represented by Fernando Cabrera, but he's term limited out, and he's running for borough president, as we've mentioned. But I believe that will likely be the most hotly contested race in the borough of the Bronx. And lastly, I would say Queens, there's the potential of some Latinos, I believe that there will be an increase in Latino political representation in the city of New York, and it will be because of Queens. So that the 25th council district, for instance, has a number of solid Latino candidates. The 22nd, where Tiffany Caban is running, and I mentioned her because we know she almost defeated Melinda Katz for the district attorney race in Queens. But I believe that we will see possibly two, maybe three additional Latinos in the City Council this year.
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A
Very interesting. And there's a whole bunch of other races to dig into there. Like I said, we'll Leave that to future episodes of the podcast and the columns. All right, well listen, this is the start of Latino Vote 21, which is a pop up podcast here that we are featuring at Gotham Gazette along with the Eli Valentin's Latino Vote 21 columns at Gotham Gazette. I am happy to have asked you the questions on this one, but you're gonna take over both as host and interviewer and commentator still on the future episodes of this. But I'll pop back in for some discussion with you down the road here as we approach the primary and then also, as folks should know, June 22nd is primary day, but we probably won't know the results for at least a couple of weeks after that because of absentee voting and ranked choice voting and tallying everything. And they can't really tally the ranked choice voting until they count the absentee ballots. So there's a lot of time for us to discuss what's going on and then break down the results once we do have them this summer. So there's a lot of interesting discussion to come both before the primary and after. And then we'll of course have a general election to look forward to. And we will be discussing the importance of the Latino vote in these elections as well as the larger picture of the city elections. Gotham Gazette, we're covering it all, but we're also happy to really hone in here with Eli Valentin on the importance of the Latino vote in the city election cycle. So Eli, thanks for a great discussion, thanks for writing the columns with us and thanks for doing this. And everybody should check out those columns at Gotham Gazette and continue listening to this podcast, which again, if you want to find it in your podcast feed, if you're not listening to it that way right now, you can find it under the larger banner of Max and Murphy, which is a podcast that we've been doing from Gotham Gazette and City Limits for about five years now and we're adding in this pop up series for now under that banner. So Eli, thanks and really appreciate this discussion and everything else you're adding.
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B
Well, Ben, I'm grateful to you and Gotham Gazette for providing a platform to discuss such a pivotal group in the city and state. So I'm grateful to you and Gotham Gazette for that opportunity.
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A
Absolutely. And as you mentioned, we're talking about 20% roughly of the of the primary electorate here in this upcoming Democratic mayoral race that's about as important to people's lives as it gets. Latino voters, Latino residents of the city and others. And so this is crucial, consequential everybody should be getting ready to vote. If you're already registered to vote and you're registered in the Democratic primary party, you get to vote in the Democratic primary. If you're registered in the Republican primary, there's a party, there's a primary there, too. And if you're not registered to vote, get that Registration in by May 28th in order to vote in June. And if you're already registered, just make a voting plan. You've also got early voting, June 12th to 20th and then primary day, 22nd June. There's absentee balloting, plenty of opportunity. So nobody should sit this one out if you're eligible to vote. All right, Eli, we will look for your next column coming to us and then the next episode of the ACcompanying Latino Vote 21 podcasts. And we'll talk with you soon.
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B
Thanks, Ben. All right.