Max Politics – Latino Vote '21: Introduction and Overview
Date: May 21, 2021
Host: Ben Max (A)
Guest: Eli Valentin (B) — Political Analyst, Columnist at Gotham Gazette

Episode Overview

This inaugural episode launches "Latino Vote 21," a special podcast and column series focused on the pivotal role of Latino voters in the 2021 New York City elections. Host Ben Max interviews political analyst Eli Valentin, setting the stage for in-depth explorations of Latino political power, representation, and influence in citywide races—especially the Democratic primary, where Latino voters are projected to make up over 20% of the electorate. The discussion covers turnout challenges, key borough battlegrounds, candidate strategies for Latino outreach, and notable political trends among NYC’s Latino communities.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Growing Latino Electorate

• Latino voters in NYC are an increasingly powerful force, making up the largest ethnic voting group city- and state-wide among registered voters, and second among Democratic voters after African Americans.

  "Latino voters are, in terms of all registered voters, they're the largest ethnic group not only in New York City, but also in New York State." (B, 05:40)

• However, mobilizing turnout remains challenging despite growing registration numbers.

Turnout Trends and Projections

• Estimated Democratic primary turnout: 700,000–900,000 voters; anticipation of about 20% Latino participation.
• Factors possibly boosting turnout: increased civic engagement, expanded absentee/early voting, competitive races, pandemic-driven attention.

  "I believe we will probably be more closer to the 800,000 range in terms of voter turnout... I do believe that this increase in voting participation... I consider that sort of a Trump factor where just the civic engagement has increased." (B, 08:01)

The Complexity of the "Latino Vote"

• The notion of a monolithic "Latino vote" is inaccurate—Latino communities are diverse in background, ideology, and candidate preference.

  “The Latino vote, just to use the terminology, I believe they will be the swing vote in this election... I don't think that there will be any candidate that will overwhelmingly win the majority of Latino votes.” (B, 10:33)

• No Latino candidate—Diane Morales included—has sparked the kind of unified mobilization seen in Freddy Ferrer’s 2005 mayoral run.

Candidates & Endorsements: Strategic Approaches

• Targeting the Latino vote:
  • Eric Adams and Diane Morales are predicted to get significant shares, but all top-tier candidates (Andrew Yang, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Kathryn Garcia) are courting Latino voters and endorsements.
  • Endorsements from prominent Latino officials are split among candidates, highlighting the community’s political diversity.
    • Ruben Diaz Jr. (Bronx Borough President)—Eric Adams
    • Richie Torres (Bronx Congressman, Afro-Latino)—Andrew Yang
    • Nydia Velázquez (Congresswoman)—Maya Wiley
    • Adriano Espaillat (Congressman)—initially Scott Stringer, later rescinded
    • AOC—has not endorsed for mayor, but for other city offices (comptroller)

  “Some of the top elected officials of Latino descent are split, which gets back to your point that you see...the Latino vote writ large probably being split up a bit.” (A, 17:05)

Key Issues for Latino Voters

• Latino voters often prioritize “bread and butter” issues:
  • Public safety
  • Small business/economic opportunity
  • Education
  • Pandemic recovery
  • Not inherently more progressive; traditionally moderate, though there's a slight shift among younger voters.

  “The Latino electorate...is still ideologically, fairly, I would say now, more moderate... Now that there's a lot more participation among the 18 to 35 year old crowd, we see a slight bump in terms of voting patterns, but...still for the most part pretty moderate.” (B, 20:13)

Borough Dynamics: Where the Latino Vote Matters Most

The Bronx

• Still the epicenter of Latino political power—majority Latino borough, highest participation rates; competitive in mayoral, borough president, and City Council races.
• Multiple prominent officials and candidates, including emerging Latino politicians and old guard figures (Jose Rivera).

  "The Bronx continues to be the center of Latino political participation. They have the highest number. The Bronx is the one borough that is a majority Latino borough." (B, 13:24)

Queens

• Rapidly growing as a Latino power center, possibly surpassing Manhattan; recent surge in progressive Latina elected officials (Jessica Ramos, Jessica González-Rojas, AOC, Catalina Cruz).

  “Queens is now becoming a base of Latino voting participation... Queens has surpassed Manhattan for the first time.” (B, 15:29)

Manhattan, Brooklyn, Other Areas

• Upper Manhattan remains significant (e.g., Washington Heights, East Harlem).
• Brooklyn: Fourth-largest Latino population, small but vocal; Antonio Reynoso is a frontrunner for borough president, leveraging coalition-building among progressives.

  "Not because of the Latino vote...but I believe that's where Reynoso will make a play." (B, 28:59)

Endorsements: Their Power and Limitations

• While endorsements matter, they do not guarantee voter alignment—many voters may prioritize issues or candidate identity/charisma over establishment backing.
• AOC’s endorsement is particularly sought after, but her “prize” status is more about progressive appeal than an automatic Latino vote shift.

  “AOC would be the big prize...not necessarily for the Latino vote...her base was that progressive base in Western Queens.” (B, 20:13)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Latino vote...is a sleeping giant. It is growing, continues to grow, and projections show that Latinos will continue to grow nationally, but especially here in New York.” (B, 05:00)
• “Whoever invests in that vote, it will benefit them.” (B, 11:34)
• “The bread and butter issues.” (B, 23:03)
• “This could be a race between...the more established Democratic base... But then you have the progressives...that helped elect [Julia Salazar] to the Senate, defeating a longtime Puerto Rican elected official.” (B, 29:42)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction & stakes for 2021 elections: 00:00–04:38
• Latino voter demographics and turnout challenges: 05:00–08:01
• Discussing turnout projections and past trends: 08:01–09:15
• The diversity of the Latino electorate: 10:33–12:28
• Borough-by-borough Latino voting power (Bronx, Queens, Manhattan): 13:24–15:29
• Notable endorsements and their implications: 15:29–22:20
• What issues matter to Latino voters: 22:20–23:04
• Down-ballot races (Bronx & Brooklyn borough presidents): 25:24–30:57
• Rising progressive Latino politicians & coalition-building: 30:57–32:56
• Hot City Council races to watch: 32:56–34:48

Brief Preview of Upcoming Coverage

• Future episodes and columns will provide deep dives into the Latino vote in specific boroughs (Bronx, Queens, etc.) and key City Council races—particularly those that could boost Latino representation.
• The podcast aims to continue exploring evolving trends, key endorsements, and primary results as they become available, especially given ranked choice voting and absentee ballot dynamics.

Closing Remarks

Ben Max and Eli Valentin encourage listeners to stay engaged both with the series and the upcoming elections:

“Nobody should sit this one out if you’re eligible to vote.” (A, 37:18)

Find additional columns at GothamGazette.com, and listen to further episodes of Latino Vote 21 via the Max & Murphy podcast feed.