← Max Politics
Max Politics
New York State Legislative Primaries to Watch, with Jeff Coltin, Rebecca Lewis, & Holly Pretsky
00:54:10
Three journalists from City & State New York join…
Loading summary
Transcript90 lines
- [00:00]
A
Foreign.
- [00:08]
B
Hello and welcome to Max Politics. This is Ben Max coming to you from New York Law School and its center for New York City and State Law. Thanks for tuning in. Speaking here on Monday, June 22, 2026 and this year's primary elections are happening early. Voting is over. Primary day is Tuesday, June 23rd. Voting by mail is ongoing through primary day. Overall this year all 213 seats in the state Legislature are on the ballot. Not all have competitive primaries and also all of New York State's 26 seats in the U.S. house of Representatives. Now we're talking about races for the State Senate, State assembly and U.S. house. Not all with competitive Democratic, Republican or both primaries. But there are a bunch of interesting contests, especially in the Democratic primaries in New York City and also one statewide for the Democratic nomination for New York State comptroller. Of those 213 seats in the state legislature, 150 are in the Assembly, 63 in the Senate. Given that New York City makes up over 40% of the state population, it's also home to many seats in both chambers of the Legislature and there are unusually high number of competitive primaries for state legislative seats this cycle, in part because a number of current officeholders in the state Legislature are running for Congress. There's also been a bunch of retirements and people moving on from the State Legislature. A lot of interesting dynamics that I should also add to the list include left wing challengers, especially taking on incumbents. Today on the show we're digging into several of the competitive and high profile races for the New York State Legislature that will soon be decided and say a good bit about the direction of the Democratic Party at least in New York City and state. Maybe even some notes for the national party, especially as they coincide with these competitive Congressional primaries that I've been digging into a lot here on the show that are also happening in New York City. Also going to talk over some of the broader interesting themes at hand in these elections, including Mayor Mamdani's endorsements and not endorsements in some of these state legislative races. The potential growth in power of the New York City Democratic Socialists of America NYC DSA that helped gave rise to Mamdani and others and more. As I said, as usual, most of the interesting primary election action in the city is happening on the Democratic side. My guests in a moment are three journalists from City and State New York Magazine, which recently published a great team effort rundown of the 2026 New York State Legislative primary races to watch. And there are a bunch more races on that list than we'll be able to touch on in the conversation today. So do check out the written piece after you listen to this conversation or while you're listening to it. With me In a moment will be Jeff Colton, Rebecca Lewis and Holly Pretzky. They were three of that group of city and state contributors to that rundown of the races to watch. We'll touch on a bunch, but not all of those races. Jeff Colton has been on this podcast quite a few times. He's now Editor in Chief of City and State New York. Rebecca Lewis is here for the first time. She's City and State's State Bureau Chief covering the Governor and legislature and state politics. And Holly Pretzky. Also here for the first time is this publications city editor, but she chips in on other topics like state legislative races and also her recent profile of Congressional candidate Darielisa Avila Chevalier, who is the Democratic Socialist challenging Democratic Congressman Adriano Espaillat in New York's 13th congressional district. Avila Chevalier was also a recent guest here on the show, so I recommend you check out that interview as well as Holly's written profile if you want to dig in more on the challenger there in New York 13 I've repeatedly tried to get Congressman Hespail here on the show, and while this team expressed interest over the course of weeks, they didn't ultimately schedule him. More broadly, I've been digging into the high profile Congressional primaries to watch. There's a bunch of episodes in the Max Politics feed here with candidate interviews and guest analyst conversations touching on the primaries in New York's 13th, but also New York's 7th, 10th and 12th House districts. Bunch of really interesting races there. High profile Democratic competitions coming to a head here. Also a bunch of interesting state legislative races that we'll touch on here. I also just had on the show the co chairs of NYC DSA talking about their approach to the primaries, their relationship with the biggest socialist stars, Mayor Mamdani and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. And we got a whole lot more about how the DSA here in New York City is approaching this primary cycle and beyond. Really interesting conversation there. If you've missed it, check it out after this one. And if you're still trying to decide who to vote for in that Democratic State Comptroller primary, there are three Democrats running, Tom DiNapoli, Drew Warshaw, and Raj Goyle, and I've had each of them on the show in recent weeks to discuss their candidacies at length. So you can check out any or all of those to as you get ready to cast your ballot or if you're just interested more broadly after you listen to this one, where our focus is both broader themes of the primaries and specific races in the state legislature. All right, I'm very pleased to welcome to Max Politics and All Star team from City and State New York magazine to do our final primary day 2026 preview. Back to the show is Jeff Colton, editor in chief of City and State. Hello, Jeff.
- [05:29]
C
Hello, good morning and thank you for having me back on in this final week of final days of election excitement.
- [05:38]
B
Here we go. And welcome for the first time to Rebecca Lewis, state bureau chief for City and State. Hello Rebecca.
- [05:45]
A
Happy to be on. It's very exciting, a very exciting time. We're down to the buzzer.
- [05:50]
B
Here we go. And Holly Pretzky, city editor.
- [05:53]
D
Hello. Hello. Thanks for having me.
- [05:57]
B
Thanks for joining me. All right, we got the City and state all star team here. Let's hear your insights. Before we get into the state legislative races to watch, which is our main focus here, let's talk about a few other things real quick. Jeff, start us off here. Zoran Mamdani and his endorsements. Big picture, how you thinking about sort of the stakes of this election for the new mayor? He's put a lot on the line. He's not fully gone for it cuz he's being careful about some of his state legislative endorsements which we'll get to. You know, more and more articles as we get to primary day about how the mayor has some big gambles here, has annoyed some people that he was allied with and so forth. How do you sort of see the broader stakes for the mayor in this election cycle?
- [06:42]
C
Yeah, it's funny, we've kind of gone back to the pre primary 2025, Zoran Mamdani, where, you know, in the general election it was all about making peace. It was about meeting with the CEOs, it was about accepting endorsements from folks who did not endorse them in primary. You know, all the labor unions, Adriano Espaillat, etc. Etc. We're now back to like, hey, I'm Democratic Socialist of America, Zahran Mamdani. He is endorsing candidates that are not the, you know, the mainstream pick, you know, like Darielisa Villa Chevalier and Claire Valdez and Brad Lander. Well, he kind of is the mainstream pick, but we're going really back to maybe the original Mamdani. And yes, he's out on a limb here with the, with some of these, but not too much out on a limb. He's, you know, pretty much the most powerful endorser in New York City at this point. And so he's really been boosting these candidates and he has been throwing down for them. This is not just a paper endorsement. He's really, really been doing a lot of videos, a lot of fundraising, showing up in person, doing a selfie line this weekend at McCarran park in Williamsburg in order to help support Claire Valdez, going out to all the clubs with her on Saturday night in, like, Bushwick and then Williamsburg. He is really putting a lot of political capital into his endorsed races. And so, yeah, a lot is on the line, more so than we've seen from, you know, any. Any mayor in. In recent history.
- [08:22]
B
And the last prior episode of the show, I had the New York City DSA co chairs on Grace Mauser and Gustavo Gordillo. And they basically were saying the New York 7 race with Claire Valdez as their candidate in the most friendly democratic socialist district in the city, is a huge bellwether for them and a huge show of their power and would be. I mean, they were very candid that a loss there would really set. They feel like it would set them back. And they talked about it even in the context of wanting to run a candidate for president in 2028, which they hope will be AOC. But we'll see about what her decision is there. Rebecca, let me come to you. You follow Governor Hochul very closely and cover her very closely. I don't know that she's seen as having a ton of political capital on the line in these elections, but she's on the opposite side from the mayor endorsing, you know, she's with Dan Goldman in New York. 10. She's with Adriano Espaila in New York. 13. Do you see the stakes as interesting for Governor Hochul here at all?
- [09:23]
A
I do. I think that this is going to be a test for her and for Mom Donnie going into the general election when turnout is going to be really important for Governor Hochul. Her 2022 general election performance was lackluster. Right now, it seems like she is assuming or hoping that the candidates that she is supporting, that the more traditional incumbents or moderate Democrats or establishment Democrats, what have you, are going to succeed here. But I think that if the candidates that she's endorsed, whether that's in the handful of state primary races that she's endorsed in state legislative primary races, or probably more importantly, some of the congressional races that she's endorsed in against the mayor, I think will serve as something of a bellwether and give her information on how she should be campaigning, where the base is at, because that base is who she's going to need to turn out in November if she wants to overperform on the ballot and really make up for 2022, not just win, but have a real powerful showing.
- [10:36]
B
Yeah, that's so interesting. And we won't get into all this now, but also the sort of tale of what happened last year in terms of she got behind Mamdani in the general election after he won the primary, which wasn't a given then she accepted and wanted his endorsement early this cycle, which helped get Antonio Delgado out of the primary. And so, you know, some very interesting calculations there from her in terms of is it about wanting to get help from the Mamdani base versus whether that will cost her in some of the purple areas of the city and state, you know, with independents and other people who might be a little turned off by democratic socialism. You know, very interesting calculations there that we'll get back to another time here. But great point about how this then feels leads into the general election. Holly, jump in here. Any other interesting themes you're watching? Any rivalries here?
- [11:28]
C
Go.
- [11:29]
D
Yeah, I mean, I like to make the point that he is, you know, he's committed to DSA and he's committed to this socialist project. I thought the DSA co chairs episode was really fascinating that you had last week, but he's not as DSA or as hardcore left as he could have been. There were a few different opportunities for him to be more committed to the DSA and he didn't take them. And in some cases he even stepped in to prevent the DSA from taking, from challenging someone. So that was true for a potential challenge for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Chiosay was really, really interested in challenging him this cycle and the mayor stepped in and prevented that. Alexa Avile, city council member, was endorsed by the organization to run against Dan Gold. Mamdani stepped in, edged her out to give Brad Lander an opportunity to run. And then as you mentioned, Antonio Delgado, who's not dsa, but he's, you know, he was planning to challenge the governor from the left. Mamdani endorsed the governor and then reportedly intervened so that WFP didn't back Delgado. So he is, you know, making these big moves and he's really wielding his power, but it's not as, as extreme as it could have been.
- [12:53]
C
Yeah.
- [12:54]
B
And, and again, that extends to these state legislative races where he's taken a very careful approach to who he's endorsed. And even the DSA co chairs acknowledged that, saying, like we, we're frustrated because our, our socialists and office are supposed to endorse the whole slate. But we get that the mayor is now the mayor and has to make some of those calculations and doesn't want to anger Carl Hasty too much. So really choices there. Yeah.
- [13:20]
D
Yeah.
- [13:20]
B
And by the way, maybe the most, most interesting line of that whole interview with them was how they talked about we're not, we're not challenging Hakeem Jeffries this year, but we're surrounding him, I believe was the quote, which was really quite a line from them. Go ahead. What were you gonna say, Holly?
- [13:37]
D
That. Well, there's just one legislative race where Mamdani reportedly recruited the candidate David Orkin to run and then didn't endorse him.
- [13:45]
B
Yeah.
- [13:45]
D
So there's just, you know, he's not like hardline dsa. He is the one calling the shots. And the, the lack of a, kind of like the lack of a consistency on when he's with dsa, when he's not with them, when he's with the incumbents, when he's not with them, it's kind of hard to predict. And I think that just goes back to like the main factor here is it's what the mayor wants. It's his power. It's, it's, I think that's kind of boss, like, like machine. Like where there isn't this like rubric across all candidates of here's how you get my endorsement. It really depends person to person.
- [14:20]
B
Right, Right. Very interesting. Okay. There's other very interesting themes here and rivalries and different people who are in groups who are on different sides of races. But before we go too much big picture, let's dig into some of these specific races real quick though, before we get to the state legislature. Jeff, State or, or Rebecca, I assume you two would be more tuned in on this. Any reason for us to think the state comptroller Democratic primary is going to be competitive or interesting when the votes come in? This has been really under covered, under focused on. I understand why. But any, any thoughts, Jeff, on the state comptroller primary or. Tom DiNapoli is facing a real primary. You know, we'll see what the votes say. But he's facing two real challengers here in this Democratic primary that's statewide. Any thoughts on that race real quick?
- [15:10]
C
Yeah, I'll say that we have a story on our website called who's running for State Comptroller and that that story has been clicked on crazy amounts in the past week. Yes, everybody I think is walking into the voting booth for early voting or they're starting to realize, oh wait, who's running for stamp controller? They're googling it. They're coming to city and state. I think that's a perfect example of kind of the late attention or really the lack of attention this race is getting. And look, city and state of course has been paying attention. Rebecca Lewis has been on this since Drew Warshaw launched his campaign like what, 18 months ago, two years ago. But you know, to put it simply, this race was over the moment that, that two challengers made the ballot. You know, if this were a one on one race of DiNapoli versus just Raj Goyle or just Drew Warshaw, it could be different. But if you have two challengers that are splitting the anti incumbent vote, both from the left, both from a progressive perspective, I mean, Tom DiNapoli has a built in 4 base of votes that he is absolutely going to get because he's been around 20 years, he has every labor union behind him. It's just like nearly mathematically impossible for another for a challenger to win this. Rebecca, do you have any other thoughts?
- [16:32]
A
Yeah, I mean, I think that this is, I think the most interesting thing that's going to come out of this race is seeing how big the margin of victory for DiNapoli is. This is his first primary challenge. I'm trying to remember if it was since his first election or ever. So this is, this is really, he's, he's largely been untested. He's been someone without scandal, which is one of his biggest campaign talking points. A little sad given that that's sort of the state of New York and politics. But it is also true that he has dutifully done his, his job of growing the pension fund. And I think that just seeing how whether or not some of this progressive movement, because Drew Warshaw I don't think originally entered the race as a quote unquote progressive or running an ideologically driven campaign, he, he was pretty wonky and he remained pretty wonky. The entrance of Raj Goyal, who loves to be photographed with progressives and DSA people who haven't technically endorsed him, really turned it into an ideological race. And I think that seeing how that, how that turns out in the polls, how much support they're able to get through, you know, some of the ideological pushes here from progressive votes, from people who are looking for change is for this race that has as you said has not gotten as much coverage. And for a position that the average New Yorker probably doesn't think about too much, I think it could be very telling for the strength of some of these progressive movements, even if it's not so cut and dry. The WFP didn't endorse. There isn't any, you know, the mayor didn't endorse. So it's not, it's not a total referendum. But I do think it could be quite telling how big or small the margins are in this race.
- [18:25]
B
Yeah. And to your prior point, it also leads into the general election where, you know, again, it's very unlikely that the Republican nominee for comptroller, Joseph Hernandez, will be able to win this race statewide. But you know, if the primary shows some weakness for DiNapoli in a few different directions, potentially, you know, that could make things a little more interesting in terms of attention on the general election there. Yeah, it's hard to see any surprises there given you haven't seen either of these challengers really get attached to like the left wing movement in the city, especially where there would be cross endorsements and lots of, you know, people then, you know, pulling the lever, so to speak, filling in the oval for, you know, that candidate. So an interesting race. I love that SEO still lives and, and people are googling and they're getting to your perfectly named article for exactly what people are. People are googling as they head to the voting booth for comptroller who's running. I love it. And that's right along with spending time with that article. I had each of the three Democrats on the show here. So if people are still, are listening to this and still trying to make up their mind here, you can listen to some time with the three candidates as well here on this show. Okay, give me one race each. Holly, let's start with you. One state legislative race each that you're finding most intriguing or among the most intriguing. What's a, a, what's a state primary for state senate or assembly in the city here that's of particular interest to you, Holly?
- [19:58]
D
I think there are a lot that are really interesting, I guess just because I've been a little bit focused on uptown. I'll talk about Conrad Blackburn versus Jordan Wright. So Conrad Blackburn is a DSA candidate. He's an attorney, originally from Florida but moved to the city and I think has been a public defender and he's challenging Jordan Wright, who is a son of Keith Wright, who is the Manhattan Democratic Party boss and just, you know, has been in and around Harlem politics for Jordan's entire life.
- [20:36]
B
Yeah.
- [20:37]
D
And so it's really the dsa. It's kind of the new machine versus the old machine. I guess the DSA really coming for like, the legacy seat for this kind of inherited seat from the son of this longtime Harlem political power player. What's interesting is that Blackburn hasn't been endorsed by the mayor or by aoc, so he's kind of all of the rest of the state legislative candidates, and our colleague Peter Stern was the one to point this out, have been endorsed by one or the other, except for him. So he's a little bit out on a limb there in Harlem. And his district completely overlaps with that of Adriano Espaillat. So Darielisa Avila Chevalier is also running there. So they're kind of both testing the waters in that uptown area. Of course, Darielisa Avila Chevalier's challenge. The district is bigger and includes more different types of populations. But yeah, that's an interesting one.
- [21:45]
B
That's one that the DSA co chairs told me they're especially focused on. And, you know, they, they cited that race and then also one or two in Brooklyn that, you know, are sort of top of mind for them, even though they have this very large for them slate of candidates. That is such an interesting one because in overlapping districts there, as, as the DSA co chairs, you know, pointed out to me, if they win the Congressional race that you're pointing at and this assembly race, which is Assembly District 70, you know, they're basically knocking out the two political machines uptown of Espad and Wright in one election, which would be quite a, quite a feat for DSA and sort of make them, at least temporarily, you know, the sort of kings of, of uptown, in a way.
- [22:31]
D
It's funny to me, dsa, like, they seem to be operating on a narrative level, like they seem to. They're storytellers. They go for these seats that have, like, they're symbolically trying to do things. It's not just about like, you know, what are the policies or what are the positions or what is which districts are ripe. It's also like, where is there a good story?
- [22:57]
B
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And some of that is also a question of what's, what's real and what's myth there. I mean, there's a little bit that's. I don't know how much of a machine Keith Wright really runs, but, you know, there's clearly power there. His son is the assembly member and he still runs the Manhattan Democratic Party. But that's Been sort of well known to not be such a strong, you know, party. So it's interesting.
- [23:24]
C
Well, hey, if DSA tries to win judicial seats, you know, then Keith Wright might be really threatened. But, yeah, I agree that might be
- [23:34]
B
coming at some point here. I would not be surprised, Jeff, since you jumped in there. What's one, what's one state legislative race you're most intrigued by right now?
- [23:45]
C
Sure. You know, I, I. As much time as I've been spending on the Upper west side watching the Stephanie Rusque Eli Northrop wars, I will actually give a shout out to Assembly District 32, the race to replace Vivian Cook, who is retiring in Southeast Queens after like, three decades in office. And that is a very interesting race where Nathaniel Hezekiah is probably the leading contender. He has been an aide to Greg Meeks for something like 15 years. And so he's got, you know, most of the big mainstream endorsements, the labor unions, and notably, he is the single candidate that is receiving the most outside spending of all state legislative candidates. That actually, that might have changed now that Jessica Gonzalez Rojas has this mysterious student PAC that may or may not be funded by Steve Cohen. But before that, before this mysterious nearly $1 million super PAC, it was Nathaniel Hezekiah, who I think even people who are locked into politics might not know him, might not have been paying attention to that ra. And so I find that very interesting that he's getting so much attention there. And there's a couple serious contenders. You know, there's Latoya Legrand, who has the WFP endorsement, and also that of, like, Khalil Anderson and James Sanders. So she's kind of running on a more progressive lane. And then there's Tanisha Morrison, who is running with Donovan Richards support, who obviously is a powerhouse across Queens and particularly in Southeast Queens. And there's a couple other candidates on the ballot as well. So, I mean, that's an open, competitive race, and I find it interesting. I expect Hezekiah will cruise to victory with all that money and all that support. But I find this one interesting because also, I mean, Southeast Queens is going to see changes in the next couple cycles. You know, Meeks is not going to be around forever. You know, he's probably got, I don't know, I would assume, one or two terms left in him. And then you have, you know, Leroy Comrie. There's talk of him retiring sometime in the coming years. There's talk of James Sanders retiring sometime in the coming years. And so I think these names that I just mentioned, you Know, latoya legrand, Tanisha Morrison, Nathaniel Hezekiah. I expect, though, are going to come up again. And I expect that these dynamics that we're seeing are going to be replayed in the coming years for various other seats. So I'm trying to pay attention to that district as well.
- [26:17]
B
And where is all this money coming from?
- [26:20]
C
Yes. Yeah, good question. I shouldn't just name drop the money. The money is coming heavily from Meta, you know, from Facebook, From Instagram, from WhatsApp, the huge tech company. Meta is spending big on Nathan and Hezekiah. So is New York Future, which is the super PAC that's funded by the online gaming companies DraftKings, FanDuel, Bet365. They are betting big on Nathaniel Hezekiah. And then also there's like a pro charter school pack that's also throwing down a lot of support for him. So different industries and they're all getting behind him. And, you know, my theory is basically that he's Greg Meeks guy, and so they're giving him money because he's Greg Meeks's guy.
- [26:58]
D
Yeah.
- [27:00]
B
There's also a couple of other quick, interesting, larger things to note there. One is that I do feel like this is one of these areas of the city, and I think this is also true, you know, for some of the sort of areas of the city that are not as close to Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn where the local narratives often matter more than some of the bigger meta narratives. So, like, you see this, I think sometimes times in southern Brooklyn, you see this in southeast Queens, you see it in different places where, you know, some of what we're talking about here is a lot more, I think, localized in a race like that than some of these bigger narratives of the DSA's rise and things like that. Not that the DSA has a candidate in that race, but I think that's interesting. And the split among some of the elected officials that are the power brokers in the area is really interesting there. And then the other thing that, to your point about, you know, who's going to be around and retirements and such is this issue of what, where is Donovan Richards heading and what's his, you know, sort of power as the next big, potentially, you know, Queens power broker? And where is he heading? What does he want to run for? He turned down potentially running for lieutenant governor with Governor Hochul. You know, he's obviously looking at a citywide run. Maybe he looks at a congressional run, depending on what Meeks does. So there's interesting things there about his juice and his power. Rebecca, what are you looking at?
- [28:19]
A
There are so many races, but I'm gonna take us to Buffalo.
- [28:24]
B
Oh, stop it. Go ahead.
- [28:26]
C
Go ahead.
- [28:27]
A
I'm gonna take us to Buffalo. I've been paying attention to the Senate district race again. That's Jeremy Zellner, the Erie County Democratic chair. Long time, roughly 14 years. He's been in charge of the party. Won a special election earlier this year to replace Sean Ryan, who became the Buffalo. The mayor of Buffalo. Raise some eyebrows. He recused himself from the voting process to appoint or to choose a candidate to run in the special election. But he's still the chair of 14 years, and he was. Maybe still is. I haven't checked the. The. The Democratic chair of the Erie County Board of Elections. You know, he's. He's a real powerhouse up there and close to Governor Kathy Hochul, and he's now being challenged by assembly member John Rivera. And there is a lot of internal Buffalo politics. It's one of the few state legislative races that the governor has actually weighed in on. She's very close with Jeremy Zellner. He's the incumbent, but at the same time, he's only been in office for, you know, a couple of months, not even one full legislative session. John Rivera is running with a lot of union support. He's got the WFP endorsement. He's not dsa, but the candidate running to replace him, one of the candidates running to. To replace him that he has endorsed in the assembly is DSA endorsed Adam BoJack. So there is. There's a lot of interesting stuff happening in Buffalo. And I also think that this is going to be a big thing for the future of Governor Kathy Hochul. She doesn't have a ton of allies in the legislature. I think that's. Her relationships might have started to have improved. And then this past legislative session, she essentially held the budget hostage for almost the entire legislative session. It got done. They had a week left to do everything else, and legislators were not terribly pleased with that. And even the speaker, who maintains that they have a good working relationship and it's not personal, but he was mad. He swore, we're never doing this again. This process needs to change. And if she loses a really close ally in the state Senate, for someone who, you know, has, you know, internally, the Buffalo Democratic politics, you know, does. Is not on Jeremy Zellner side anymore, is not necessarily connected with the establishment Democratic politics. Although, you know, the Riveras in that region of Western New York are sort of their own. They have A little bit of their own political dynasty. But either way, I think it's going to be a very interesting race. It's a not very long term incumbent who has a lot of power in western New York. There is definitely some western New York politics that, you know, the average reader might not know about or necessarily care about. But this is going to be, in my opinion, a big race for the governor and, you know, whether or not she's able to flex her influence in her hometown. And I think that if Zellner loses, that will be seen as a blow to the governor.
- [31:44]
B
Interesting. I have not noticed her seemingly publicly putting a lot of her political capital on the line, but maybe that's happening more behind the scenes and maybe she's. Maybe she's making some 23rd hour efforts there as well. Coming down the home stretch here, coming back to the five boroughs here, I believe. Jeff, did you mention the David Orkin, Jennifer Rajkumar race earlier?
- [32:12]
C
That was, that was Holly. But that was Holly. That's an interesting race. I'll throw it to her. Yeah, yeah.
- [32:16]
B
Holly say a little bit more about that one. It's pretty fascinating given that. You know, I think one of the interesting themes here is where the DSA is running a very big slate for them. Some of these races are extending into territory that are not necessarily Big D traditional in the last decade DSA strongholds, but areas where Mamdani did well, like this, that they're now testing their power. But I believe, as you noted, Mamdani isn't, isn't involved in this race. Say a little bit more about this one in Queens between Orkin and Rajkumar.
- [32:51]
D
Yeah. Mamdani actually didn't endorse at any of the state legislative races, which is really interesting. Maybe because he's trying for open seats.
- [32:58]
B
Right. He's endorsing in some open suits.
- [33:00]
D
Yeah, sorry, he didn't endorse. You're right, you're right. He didn't endorse against any incumbents in the state legislature. Maybe because he needs to. He needs the state legislature and particularly the leadership to help him with his Albany agenda.
- [33:14]
C
Right.
- [33:15]
D
Or because he has PTSD from working under Carl Hasty. I don't know. But yeah, he hasn't officially gotten involved, but reportedly recruited David Orkin to run against Jennifer Rajkumar. Jennifer Rajkumar, I think first got elected in 2020. Is that right, Jeff?
- [33:33]
C
2020. That sounds, that sounds right. In that big anti incumbent wave.
- [33:38]
D
Yeah, she was, she was kind of. She came in on this like wave of younger, more diverse lawmakers who were unseating all these, like, older incumbents. It was kind of. That was the narrative of that year. And so she was kind of assumed to be maybe a more progressive or left leaning kind of breath of fresh air, but in the years since, has really made a name for herself. Initially, she was very prominent as an ally of Mayor Eric Adams, which at the time was a pretty strategic decision. He was a popular mayor, if you can remember, all the way back to. There was a time, 2022. So she was really close with him. And she also was known for. She always wears this iconic all red outfit. So really recognizable. But as the kind of political winds have shifted and as Mayor Eric Adams mayoralty kind of imploded, her standing has become a little more precarious too. She ran for public advocate last year and was. It was not even close. And she lost in the landslide. I think she lost her own district to Jumani Williams in the primary. And meanwhile, Mamdani, you know, did really well in these South Asian enclaves of the city, including in her district. And so DSA saw an opportunity there. Again, they. They operate on this narrative level, so I think there's an opportunity to unseat an Adam's ally, and that's important to them. But also they saw the numbers kind of starting to shift. It's interesting they chose David Orkin because he just on an identity basis, you know, he's a Jewish guy. It's a South Asian district. And that's been. I think the New York Times had a really good analysis of it early on of like, we're testing whether Mamdani won or was so successful there because. Because he's progressive or because he's South Asian or was it the combo? And so now we have a. A Jewish, white, progressive guy versus like a more moderate South Asian woman who lost.
- [35:57]
B
But also elements areas of this district where just on an identity basis, he might be, you know, again, the whole district is not, you know, it's not.
- [36:04]
A
Right, right.
- [36:05]
B
So I mean, it could be one of these. Another one of these races where it scrambles people's brains a little bit because you could get more moderate areas of the district voting for Oregon because of his demographic identity versus his political ideology.
- [36:19]
C
Oregon is also, I'll note, he's, I believe, Jewish, Mexican and speaks Spanish fluently. And so this is also. Yeah, this is a Latino district as well, you know, with a significant Latino population. And so he's definitely reaching out to that. It's. It's a complicated demographic history.
- [36:36]
B
Exactly. Very rare.
- [36:37]
C
And race And I think this is one of those situations where, as we've alluded to in many of these races, it's a test of whether Mamdani was a singular political entity and whether, you know, people that were really excited to come out and vote for Mamdani in the 2025 primary are necessarily going to come out and vote the way that he would like in these elections. I mean, small anecdote is I talked to a relatively apolitical friend who lives in Williamsburg last week, and I texted and I said, hey, who are you supporting in the congressional race? And she said, said there's a congressional race. She literally did not know she voted for Mamdani in the 25 primary and she did not know about this Valdez Reynoso Juan congressional race. She since texted me over the weekend and saying, oh, now I'm seeing it everywhere. Once I guess I brought her attention to it, then it started popping up on Instagram and everywhere. But, yeah, there are a lot of of Mamdani voters even in that district that are simply not plugged in, not locked in, and are not necessarily going to support or not, you know, definitively going to support Valdez.
- [37:55]
B
Right. Or come out to vote at all. I mean, this is one of the biggest questions. And we were seeing some coverage of this by Gothamist and then elsewhere of like, what the early, the early, early voting numbers said. And I never expected voter Turnout in, in 2026 legislative and congressional primaries with only the state comptroller primary on the top of it to come anywhere close to turnout for Mamdani in a mayoral race. But the question is, is it going to be up from two years ago? Is it going to be up from four years ago in other years of state legislative and congressional races? And again, it's also localized because it's where are there the most competitive primaries? And we have the borough of Manhattan has a ton of races both for Congress and state legislature. And then some other parts of the other boroughs are not as competitive all across the ballot. So there's not as much attention on getting people out. But, but that is one of the key things is like, what is voter turnout going to be and what is voter turnout going to look like? You know, it's fascinating. Rebecca.
- [38:53]
D
Oh, sorry.
- [38:53]
B
No, go ahead.
- [38:54]
D
Well, I'm just, I remember in 2025 when we were looking at early voting turnout, and I, if I'm remembering correctly, the conclusion was kind of like, oh, this looks good for Cuomo. Do you remember that? Like, young people aren't turning out and There was a lot of like, do you all think that that early voting, that you can really draw any conclusions?
- [39:14]
C
If I remember correctly, it was, it was that the early voting was looking good for Mamdani. I mean, I think there was spin from both sides. Now, I can't remember specifically, but no.
- [39:24]
B
Well, I think the idea was that the energy was behind Mamdani and bringing people out and that Cuomo's voters are going to be more Election Day voters because they were older. But I think we'd have to look back at all the ways the narratives went over the course of those days, many days of early voting. But I do think, I mean, again, the DSA co chair said this to me when I asked them about the early voting data. They said, yeah, we were alarmed by the first few days and we called some emergency meetings to revisit how we're getting out the vote. And I think one of the things they did, they didn't say this, I don't think explicitly, but like, it seems like one of the things they did with Mamdani and others is really double down on the effort in the 7th Congressional District for Clara Valdez because they see that as, as the biggest focus race for the Mamdani movement and the DSA that they want to win. So it seems like they've really gotten him there and then focused there, although he's also doing some things in other, in other races, including I believe today on the day we're speaking here on Monday, June 22, doing some stuff with Dariel Lisa Avila Chevalier up in the 13th district, Rebecca, for the great city and state rundown of state legislative races to watch. You wrote about this lower Manhattan state Senate, Senate primary to replace the retiring Brian Kavanaugh. We have a lot of retirements going on here and either retirements or people leaving their seats to run for other things that are creating so many interesting state legislative primaries for open seats. So this is one of them. And in lower Manhattan, you have Assemblymember Grace Lee facing former assembly member Yuli New. Do you want to just say take a minute on that race and, and what's interesting there?
- [41:01]
A
Yeah, absolutely. You know, I was, I wanted to chime in and say there, there are a bunch of races where DSA actually isn't involved in. Yes.
- [41:08]
D
Okay.
- [41:08]
A
One of them, you know, this is also going to be, I think it's going to be kind of, it has been contentious. There is a long history between Yuli New and Grace Lee. Grace Lee tried to run against Yuli, knew in the assembly, lost that was a messy race. Replaced Yulin New in, in the assembly when New decided to run for Congress. And now there is this open seat in the state Senate. It now that Brian Kavanaugh is retiring. And you know, part of the dynamics here is allegedly, so I have heard there was talk of New coming back to challenge Brian Kavanaugh. That was something that she was considering doing before she tried running for Congress in what was it, 2022. That or.
- [41:58]
B
Right, Yep.
- [41:59]
D
Okay.
- [42:00]
A
All the years melt very narrowly to
- [42:02]
B
Dan Goldman and his first win in a. In a very split field. And you know, again, progressives looking to figure out how to revisit that. And now with Brad Lander in a one on one race, essentially. And as was talked about earlier, you know, the left sort of, especially the mayor, pushing Alexa Vilas out of that race to make sure it was a one on one. But anyway, go ahead.
- [42:23]
A
Yeah, yeah. So she had been considering running against Kavanaugh in 2022, opted for Congress. And there is, you know, the general chatter, I think had been Brian Kavanaugh decided to retire rather than face a challenge from New. I think that the general thinking in the area, among him, among her was that if she challenged him, she could probably beat him. But his retirement and then the entrance of Grace Lee into the race really changed the dynamics. I think that now it's much more competitive. New is not necessarily the favorite. And there are Democratic groups, there are people in the district. I know that she was very proud to have represented Chinatown when she was in the Assembly. But some of the same groups and people that got her, that helped to get her elected in the first place in another contentious race. This used to be Shelly Silver's district. For anyone who might have forgotten, it's. A lot has changed since then. Sorry. The assembly district used to be Shelly Silver's district. One of some of the groups, some of the Chinese American groups that helped propel her to victory in her initial race are now backing Grace Lee. They don't feel like New has necessarily done a good job representing the district or that she's become too progressive, that she's just not the same candidate that they helped initially. And there is definitely split among the groups. And this is not a straightforward. One is progressive, one is moderate. You know, I think that there is little argument that New is the more progressive of the two. But Grace Lee isn't, you know, not progressive. She's not unprogressive. And she has, she's well liked in the Assembly. She's well liked by her colleagues. And she's well liked in the district. And I think that, you know, what could have been a straightforward race for New if Brian Kavanaugh had stayed, if it had been her against the incumbent, Oddly enough, I think it could have been her race to lo. But now it's become a much tenser race and there's a lot of also ethnic politics at play here that I think if you're not in the district, perhaps you're not necessarily privy to. But there's a lot going on in this race beyond just progressive versus not progressive. And I will say the same thing I think is going on in the state Senate race of the Jessicas, Jessica Gonzalez Rojas and Jessica Ramos.
- [45:02]
B
I was gonna take us there in a moment, which we. We must spend a couple minutes on that race before we say goodbye, because that is maybe the most. I mean, I don't know that people think it's necessarily going to be close, but it's one of the most interesting, you know, races going on right now, I would say.
- [45:18]
A
I think it's going to be close.
- [45:19]
B
You think it's because. Okay, yeah, no, I'm not sure. I. I really don't know what to make of that race. I mean, one of my feelings coming into this whole election cycle was I wouldn't bet against Jessica Ramos holding that, you know, winning that primary even despite like the massive amounts of the New York political world opposing her. But I'm not sure how confident I am in that anymore. I will just say briefly on this State Senate District 27, Lower Manhattan race, I mean, it also always, you know, does strike me as you're getting at the, Rebecca, that this is not necessarily the most progressive district by any means. And, you know, as you're getting at that across demographics, it's not necessarily like the most progressive stronghold. And it's an area also where Dan Goldman is counting on doing quite well in his congressional race against Brad Lander. And, you know, he's been pretty well allied with Grace Lee. So, you know, there's interesting overlap in a lot of these places where you have the congressional race and the state legislative races and there's interesting alliances or just who's bringing who out to vote will impact the other races. So. So that'll be pretty interesting there as well. And, you know, there's a big difference when someone is a current incumbent in an assembly seat versus someone who doesn't hold office and doesn't necessarily then have, as you're getting at, some of the same relationships anymore. Okay, yes, let's. Let's take a minute on the Jessica Ramos, Jessica Gonzalez Rojas race in Queens for state Senate. Gonzalez Rojas being an assembly member. Rebecca, did you want to say another word on that before Jeff and Holly maybe jumped in with their thoughts on that one?
- [46:55]
A
Yeah, just really quickly, I think that, you know, there are a lot of races where people say, oh, it's a local race. It's, you know, the local politics are really going to matter. I think this district more than any other. And maybe, maybe I'm biased. Maybe it's because I have covered insurgent races. I covered Jessica Ramos's race there back in 2018. Like, like, you know, it's, it's an incredibly diverse district, working class district. I probably one of the most diverse districts in the state. I think that people underestimate how local this race will get and how much the broader politics around people being angry at Jessar Ramos is going to necessarily play in the district. Which is part of partly why I think that this is going to be closer than outside observers might think it is. Because historically, as far as I know, Descar Ramos has been fairly well liked and present in the district. And that hasn't necessarily changed just because she has burned some political bridges with political power players. She's still, she has been an incredibly effective legislator even as she has continued to make some questionable political moves and, you know, not have the most friends politically when she's doing this. So I really do think that this is going to be closer than people think and I think it's going to be a much more local race than people assume.
- [48:25]
C
Yeah. And as I mentioned, with the money on this one though, the money is trying to make it not a local race. WFP has been spending heavily on JGR despite having, you know, WFP endorses dozens of candidates across the state. But their ie was supporting, you know, I mean, almost all the money was only going to JGram. And then I mentioned this other outside group that's, you know, reportedly maybe Steve Cohen's money that's supporting her. So I mean, look, the fact that all this money is being spent on JGR suggests to me that yes, there is real concern among her camp that she's, you know, that this is going to be a close race. Maybe that final push of money is going to be enough to bring her over the edge. Maybe it's not. There's also the complicating factor of Ira Montserrat. This isn't just a two person race.
- [49:15]
B
I'm just going to bring him into this.
- [49:16]
C
Yes, it's a three person race. And look, Montserrat, Montserrat absolutely is going to get a solid chunk of the vote. I mean, there's no, I don't see a path to victory for him at all. But you know, he's going to be a factor. He's going to get, I don't know, 20%, 25 or something like that. So, like that's a chunk of support for Montserrat. That the numbers are complicated here. And, you know, I have a theory that the more similar two candidates are, the more likely they are to hate each other. And the fact that we have two Jessicas that cover the same territory, they're roughly the same age, they've come up in politics at roughly the same time. Of course they hate each other. They see a real tension. And so this is the boiling over of that political dynamic in this state Senate race. So, yeah, we're all going to be watching this one. But I think Rebecca's right that it would be wrong to look at it exclusively from a city and state perspective. Our readers in the political world world, you know, everybody has, has thoughts on Jessica and Jessica, but could be different. The voters of the 13 state Senate district.
- [50:27]
B
Right as Rebecca was getting at a lot of those thoughts are, Jessica Ramos has upset everybody that she's worked with even before she endorsed Andrew Cuomo in the mayoral primary. Then that just like tipped it way over the edge for so many New York entities and individuals. I gotta let you all go. Holly, let me give you the final word here. Any other race you want to mention, any, any, just comment on anything that's been discussed or any other interesting theme you want to shout out. I'll just say for listeners, obviously, basically dozens of races we didn't get to, of course we couldn't touch on all of them. But you should definitely check out city and state's rundown of the state legislative primaries to watch because it gets into those fascinating central Brooklyn races. There's a really interesting East Harlem assembly race with Eddie Gibson facing challenges. I mean, there's a lot of different ones here to, to check out if you're interested in the full scope. But Holly, any other final thought on a race to watch or a theme to watch or anything you want to shout out in our final minute?
- [51:27]
D
I guess I just keep going back to like this is about narrative. A lot of these races, these two candidates will govern and, and vote in in pretty identical ways. I think it's so interesting that DSA is saying the Claire Valdez, Antonio Reynoso race is there, their most important one because at the end of the day, like those two candidates are, they're in Congress. I don't think they're going to be very distinguishable, like in how they actually operate in Washington, D.C. and what so what what DSA is saying with that is this matters for who has power in the city. We want to be able to, we want to be able to call the shots in this district. And that's more important to us. Us, even though these candidates are like quite similar ideologically. So. Yeah.
- [52:15]
B
And another one, you know, that fits into a little bit of that is this state Senate race in Queens to replace Michael Janarus, who's, you know, surprised some people by announcing he wasn't seeking reelection. That's another sort of almost in very broad ways similar to the New York 7 race where you have a DSA candidate against a sort of like traditional now progressive slash, like progressive establishment candidate. You know, interesting stuff. All right, let me let you go. Jeff Colton, Rebecca Lewis, Holly Pretzky from City and State, thank you very much for the time and thoughts. And we'll be following, of course, City and State's coverage as the votes really come in.
- [52:51]
C
Thank you so much for having the whole team on. We will be having an Election day live blog going into the night. We're going to have reporters at so many of these election night parties. So City and stateny.com check us out. Thank you.
- [53:05]
B
Jeff. Jeff, you gotta next time you come on, we're going to talk more about that theory of yours that you just talked about. About, because there's a lot of rivalries in New York politics that fit into that. So we're going to talk.
- [53:14]
C
I've got a whole list of it. It'll be fun.
- [53:16]
B
All right, good.
- [53:17]
D
All right.
- [53:17]
B
Thank you all. Appreciate it.
- [53:19]
D
Thank you.
- [53:20]
A
Thank you.