Meet the Press NOW — April 13

Summary

Meet the Press NOW — April 13, 2026

Host: Kelly O’Donnell, NBC News
Airdate: April 13, 2026

---

Episode Overview

This episode tackles several urgent issues at the intersection of domestic politics, global diplomacy, and election year strategy. The discussion centers on President Trump’s escalations in the Iran conflict—specifically, the newly launched U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports after negotiations broke down—and the political fallout surrounding his handling of the crisis, with a focus on oil prices and public opinion. The episode also features expert analysis of the implications for U.S.-Iran relations, the expanding role of China, and unrest within domestic politics, including White House tension with the Pope, a Congressional sexual misconduct scandal, and major developments on the U.S. and European election fronts.

---

Key Segments & Highlights

1. U.S.-Iran Crisis: New Blockade and Negotiation Breakdown

[01:19–07:57]

• Naval Blockade Announced:
  President Trump ordered a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports following failed peace talks, aiming to cut off Iranian oil revenue and force Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions.
  “We can't let a country blackmail or extort the world because that's what they're doing. ... Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.” — President Donald Trump [02:27, 03:19]

• Negotiation Stalemate:
  The collapse of 21-hour talks in Islamabad was reportedly over Iran’s refusal to end nuclear enrichment. The administration claims, ambiguously, that Iran still wants a deal, while Iran’s president accuses the U.S. of a "totalitarianist" approach.

• Political Impact at Home:
  A new CBS/YouGov poll shows 64% of Americans disapprove of the President’s handling of the crisis. Gas prices have soared 38% since February.

• Public Message Management:
  Both sides are using social media and public statements to position themselves, with Iranian officials taunting the U.S. over likely prolonged high gas prices.
  “Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.” — Iranian Parliamentary Speaker (paraphrased by Kelly O’Donnell) [07:23]

---

2. On-the-Ground Analysis: Pentagon and Naval Operations

[09:05–13:18]

• Blockade Logistics & Feasibility:
  Senior National Security Correspondent Courtney Kuby, retired Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, and others discuss U.S. naval capacity for enforcing the blockade.

  • U.S. has enough ships/personnel for selective interdiction but far fewer than pre-war normal traffic.
  • Main focus: stopping ships leaving Iranian ports and possibly boarding/screening them.
  • Iranian forces may use fast boats (IRGC) to harass shipping—a persistent threat.
    “Most of the large surface ships have been... destroyed, badly damaged, but they still have... small boats ... present a huge threat because they're small, they're fast.” — Kevin Donegan [11:53]

• Comparison to Other Blockades:
  U.S. approach expected to rely on surveillance and interdiction once ships exit Iranian waters, avoiding direct confrontation at the coastline.

• Potential Chinese Involvement:
  U.S. intelligence indicates China may soon send Iran advanced air defense systems, raising alarms about further escalation.
  “If an air defense system hits a US aircraft, that absolutely has lethal effects. ... This would absolutely be a provocation.” — Kevin Donegan [13:03]

---

3. Inside the Negotiating Room: The Deadlock

[17:49–24:34]

• Expert Take on Protracted Talks:
  Wendy Sherman, former Deputy Secretary of State and Iran deal negotiator, explains that technical specifics—not just high-level political demands—are stumbling blocks. “There is no way they were going to get to an agreement even in 21 hours, because there are multiple issues... The Iranians are excellent negotiators... it’s going to take more than 20 hours.” — Wendy Sherman [18:37]

• The Sticking Point:
  U.S. seeks an end to all enrichment, Iran insists on civilian enrichment rights as a matter of national pride and under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  “This is a negotiation. It's not a capitulation for either side.” — Wendy Sherman [20:46]

• Blockade as Pressure vs. Real Leverage:
  Sherman warns the blockade may provoke Iranian retaliation or simply strengthen resolve:
  “They are a culture of resistance and they have outlasted... They are pretty resistant and pretty persistent. And I think they can outlast us... or just sit and wait us out as the price of oil goes up.” [22:37]

---

4. Trump vs. the Pope: Religious and Political Fallout

[26:25–34:21]

• President’s Attack on Pope Leo:
  Trump lashed out at Pope Leo (the first American-born Pope) for criticizing the war, refused to apologize, and posted (then deleted) an AI image of himself in Christ-like pose, claiming he thought he looked like a doctor.
  “No, I don’t. Because Pope Leo said things that are wrong. There’s nothing to apologize for. ... Iran wants to be a nuclear nation so they can exterminate the world.” — President Trump [26:52]

• Pope’s Response:
  Pope Leo emphasized his calling as a peacemaker, not a politician:
  “I am called to do what the church is called to do... blessed are the peacemakers, is the message the world needs to hear today.” — Pope Leo [27:32]

• Impact on U.S. Catholics:
  Religious correspondent Elizabeth Dias notes the backlash is broad, with many Catholic swing voters disturbed by Trump’s attack on a Pope they admire. The symbolism of the AI image caused particular offense.
  “Attacking the Holy Father... This is potentially more damaging than the President realizes, which is a reason... the image ... is no longer posted.” — Elizabeth Dias [30:52]

• Religious Rhetoric in the Administration:
  The language of divine intervention and religious war, especially from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, is unsettling to many progressive Christians and Catholics.
  “Blessed be the Lord, my rock, who trains my hands for war and my fingers for battle.” — Pete Hegseth (clip played) [32:38]

---

5. European Election Shock: Viktor Orban Ousted in Hungary

[35:59–39:09]

• Orban’s Defeat:
  Hungary’s Viktor Orban loses after 16 years; Peter Magyar’s center-right party wins a supermajority. U.S. Vice President Vance’s campaign efforts with Orban fail to make an impact.

• Implications:
  Reporter Alexander Smith deems the result both historic and a rebuke of Orban’s authoritarian style. The Trump administration’s open support for Orban is described as “pretty embarrassing”—but ultimately not decisive.
  “This was an election won on the economy, on corruption... Transparency International says it’s one of the most corrupt countries in Europe. So yes, it's pretty embarrassing for the Trump administration.” — Alexander Smith [37:54]

---

6. Capitol Hill Scandal: Rep. Swalwell Faces Sexual Misconduct Allegations

[41:13–50:23]

• The Allegations:
  Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends his California gubernatorial campaign after multiple women, including a former staffer, accuse him of misconduct ranging from lewd messages to rape (which Swalwell denies). The Manhattan D.A. and House Ethics Committee are investigating.

• Political Fallout:
  Both parties have members under scrutiny, and there’s debate about group vs. individual accountability. Swift resignations could minimize damage, while drawn-out processes may hurt party images in a tight election year.
  “Seriously damaging. But more so if Democrats are seen as protecting Swalwell... that's where it elevates.” — Sahil Kapoor [46:53]
  “I think you'll see a lot of this discussion come up again... there will be meetings there of asking him to resign.” — Taryn Rosenkranz [48:13]

• House Leadership Response:
  The Ethics Committee process is likely to be drawn out; bipartisan expulsions are possible given past precedent (e.g., Rep. Santos). Margins in Congress will affect how leadership proceeds.
  “It’s not a one party problem... There are a lot of options... in terms of deciding whether they’re going to put up with this and where they’re gonna draw the line.” — Sahil Kapoor [47:49]

---

7. 2026 Midterm and Senate Race Landscape

[51:03–53:53]

• Democrats Gain Momentum:
  The Cook Political Report shifts several key Senate races (GA, NC, OH, NE) in Democrats’ favor amid widespread Republican struggles and dissatisfaction with Trump's focus.
  “The national political environment is deteriorating substantially for Republicans... Georgia being lean Democrat... now it’s lean Democrat.” — Sahil Kapoor [51:03]

• Trump's Influence:
  The panel debates whether Trump’s political capital and lack of economic focus are harming Republicans down-ballot.
  “It’s not so much what Republicans need to do. It’s more so Donald Trump.” — Malik Abdullah [52:02]

• Candidate Quality & Issue Salience:
  Democratic candidates are connecting on affordability, while Republicans struggle with intraparty divisions and Trump's unpredictability.

---

Notable Quotes

• President Trump [02:27, 03:19, 26:52]:
  "We can't let a country blackmail ... We're not going to let that happen.”
  "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon... If they don't agree, there's no deal."
  "No, I don't [apologize to Pope Leo]. ... Iran wants to be a nuclear nation so they can exterminate the world."

• Kelly O’Donnell [07:23]:
  “That gives you a sense of how they are sort of pushing it right back in the face of the administration.”

• Kevin Donegan [11:53]:
  “Most of the large surface ships have largely been... destroyed, badly damaged, but they still have... small boats ... present a huge threat because they're small, they're fast.”

• Wendy Sherman [18:37]:
  “There is no way they were going to get to an agreement even in 21 hours...”

• Elizabeth Dias [30:52]:
  “Attacking the Holy Father... This is potentially more damaging than the President realizes, which is a reason... the image ... is no longer posted.”

• Alexander Smith [37:54]:
  “So yes, this is a huge result in the context of Hungary and also Europe. ... It’s pretty embarrassing for the Trump administration.”

---

Timestamps for Major Segments

• U.S.-Iran Blockade Announcement & Reaction: 01:19–07:57
• Pentagon & Naval Logistics: 09:05–13:18
• Expert Negotiation Analysis (Wendy Sherman): 17:49–24:34
• Trump vs. Pope Fallout: 26:25–34:21
• Hungarian Election Result: 35:59–39:09
• Swalwell Scandal Coverage: 41:13–50:23
• Senate Battleground Analysis: 51:03–53:53

---

Episode Tone & Style

The coverage is urgent, sober, and analytical, balancing real-time updates with historical context and expert-driven insights. The tone reflects the gravity of multiple crises—a tense military standoff, domestic scandals, and shifting electoral fortunes—while maintaining clarity and accessibility for viewers. Panel discussions offer candid, sometimes stark, assessments of political realities.

---

Summary

This episode delivers a comprehensive, multi-angled analysis of ongoing global crises and their consequences for U.S. leadership and the 2026 election. Key developments—including the U.S. blockade of Iran, rising tensions with religious leaders, international elections, and a major Capitol Hill scandal—are dissected with expert input and a focus on what they mean for both policy and politics as America heads deeper into a consequential election year.

Transcript

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Hey, it's Kate Snow, NBC News anchor and host of the Drink. This month, Demi Lovato is my guest. The global superstar tells me that she is the happiest she's ever been right now. But getting there, it wasn't simple. Demi opens up about starting in Hollywood

[Julie Cirkin]

young and why she now thinks she

[Kelly O'Donnell]

may have started too soon. She talks about recovery, her new marriage, and the deeply personal reason behind her new cookbook. The Drink is always about the journey

[Julie Cirkin]

to the top, and this was an

[Kelly O'Donnell]

honest conversation about what that takes. Hope you'll listen and follow the Drink wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Craig Melvin.

[President Donald Trump]

Cheers. Cheers.

[Elizabeth Dias]

Cheers.

[President Donald Trump]

I've always been a glass half full kind of guy, and now I'm talking

[Kelly O'Donnell]

to some people who look at the world that way, too. Some really fascinating folks who share their

[NBC News Reporter]

defining moments, their triumphs, their challenges.

[President Donald Trump]

Their stories are funny and quite candid.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

So I hope you'll join me each week.

[NBC News Reporter]

And who knows, you might just come

[President Donald Trump]

away with your own glass Half Full.

[Malik Abdullah]

Search Glass Half Full with Craig Melvin From Today on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Welcome to MEET THE press now. I'm Kelly o' Donnell in Washington. And of course, that was the closing bell on Wall Street. We were watching how the market would react today as the US Began a blockade on Iranian ports after those peace negotiations between the US And Iran, bro. This weekend without a deal to end the war, markets rallying to close higher by about a half a percent while oil prices continue to hover around $100 a barrel as the safety and status of the Strait of Hormuz remains a question right now after President Trump ordered a naval blockade on all maritime traffic to and from Iran's shores. The Pentagon noting, however, it will not block other ships from going through the strait. Iran's armed forces calling the restrictions illegal and amounting to piracy. Now in a social media post today, President Trump also warning any Iranian ship that comes close to the US Blockade will be, quote, immediately eliminated. The president speaking to reporters outside the Oval Office today about this move.

[President Donald Trump]

We can't let a country blackmail or extort the world because that's what they're doing. They're really blackmailing the world. We're not going to let that happen. Countries are going to also.

[NBC News Reporter]

Which countries, sir?

[President Donald Trump]

We don't need other countries, frankly, but they've offered their services. We'll let it. We'll let it be known probably tomorrow.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

So no answer there yet, but the president today also discussing the status of the talks with Iran following Vice President Vance's 21 hour closed door negotiations in Islamabad Saturday. The White House saying the talks ended because Tehran would not give up its nuclear ambitions. Last night, the President said he didn't care whether Iran returned to the negotiating table. But today he claimed his administration was contacted by the, quote, right people and insisting Iran does want to make a deal.

[President Donald Trump]

Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. And we agreed to a lot of things, but they didn't agree to that. And I think they will agree to it. I'm almost sure of it. In fact, I am sure of it. If they don't agree, there's no deal. There'll never be a deal. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. And we're going to get the dust back, Mr. President. We'll get it back. Either we'll get it back from them or we'll take it.

[Courtney Kuby]

Our deal is not reached by the end of the ceasefire.

[Julie Cirkin]

Does your threat from before still stand?

[President Donald Trump]

Yeah, I don't want to comment on that, but it won't be pleasant for them, let me put it that way.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Now, we don't know who the President was referring to. And Iran has made no new claims publicly about wanting a deal with the Iranian president, saying the only way an agreement could, could be reached is if the Trump administration gives up its totalitarianist approach. Now, meanwhile, the White House continues grappling with the politics of war. According to a new CBS YouGov poll, 64% of Americans disapprove of the President's handling of this conflict. And President Trump for the first time acknowledges that gas prices could remain elevated heading into the midterm elections, even as his party is increasingly concerned about affordability issues. So do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections?

[President Donald Trump]

I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be. It could be, or the same, or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same. I think this won't be that much longer.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Joining me now, members of our NBC News team, White House correspondent Julie Cirkin and senior National Security correspondent Courtney Kuby. Glad to have you both here. Julie, let me start with you. What are you hearing from sources there about what the President hopes to accomplish with this naval blockade?

[Courtney Kuby]

Well, Kelly, when you were playing that bite from the President saying the only thing the Iranians haven't agreed to is giving up their nuclear weapons program, that's not exactly true because we know that Iran also hasn't agreed to reopen that critical Strait of Hormuz. When I asked the President about It on Saturday, he was clearly frustrated. He asked me, how do I know that? But it was clear by Sunday that they didn't do that because that's when the President had issued this threat of a blockade. This morning at 10am According to Central Command, that became a reality. What he's really hoping to do is take away the Iranians last remaining leverage point, their biggest leverage point, this critical waterway that you see gas, oil, fertilizer, helium, so much pass through. And the President intended to counter that blockade with his own blockade of Iranian ports on that strait, intended to essentially cut off the Iranian revenue stream for the oil and gas that they sell to the limited number of countries. The President saying it's going to be all in or all out. And it's the President who says that the US Will decide if Iran can make money or they can't.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Some of the things we've been hearing the President say really amount to trying to either hype the situation or set expectations around these negotiations. What do you sense between what the President is saying and where there might be actual movement, if any, in these negotiations with Iran?

[Courtney Kuby]

Yeah, it's a really good question, Kelly. And it's interesting you say that because the President and the White House also say there's a difference between what the Iranians are saying publicly and what they are saying privately at the negotiating table. So the President claims, as you mentioned, that he heard from the right people this morning from Iran. A US official telling NBC News that there's continued engagement between US and Iran. Though after that 21 hour meeting that the Vice President had, we still know there are a number of red lines that were not agreed to. That nuclear enrichment program, reopening the strait, the missile ballistic missile program that we know Israel, a US Ally had asked the President to focus on months ago when Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House. All of those extremely important. But that's not. Cease fire is soon approaching that deadline, April 21st, when the clock would run out on that two week cease fire. The President hinting that Iran may face grave consequences if they don't come to the table. But I think it's just so important. This cease fire has been hinging on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iran has refused to do so. And yet we see the ceasefire holding as fragile as it is.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

And one of the things we're noticing is that Iran's side is sort of playing the social media game as well, as certainly the President often does. There was an important quote today from the head of their negotiating Enjoy the current pump figures referring to gas prices with the so called blockade. Soon you'll be nostalgic for four to five dollars gas. That gives you a sense of how they are sort of pushing it right back in the face of the administration. What is the White House saying about concerns the public has and in the political landscape when gas prices are higher and not coming right down?

[Courtney Kuby]

The president acknowledged yesterday that they could be even higher when it comes to the midterm elections. He was asked on Fox News about that. He said hopefully they will stay the same, but certain, not promising that they will lower. There's been a 38% increase for the cost of gas, the national average from when the war started in February to this point now. So a monumental increase for the president's supporters and for his people maybe that he's trying to attract or Republicans are hoping to keep in their corner when it comes to the midterm elections. Look, from my conversations on Capitol Hill and with various Republicans, we know that they want the focus to be on the economy. The president is holding multiple events, touting no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. We saw a doordash delivery worker pop up at the White House today as well as the president tries to make a point about that. But for Americans, it's really hard to focus on the wins that the president is trying to put in front of them when they're going to the gas pump and paying so much more to fill up their car or whatever it may be. So certainly the president wants to wrap up this conflict, wants to get to a place where he can tout the economy once again heading into the midterms. And really interestingly, Kelly, that tweet that you showed was from the parliamentary speaker who was in the room with Vance all weekend long.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

That's an in your face moment. Thank you Julie. We appreciate your updates. And let me turn now to Courtney Kuby who's here and you always help us to understand more about how is this actually working with your expertise from the Pentagon. So we're talking about a naval blockade. It's not of the entire strait. It is designated locations within. How is this working? Does the US have all the resources it needs to carry this out?

[Kevin Donegan]

So the US Has a number of Navy ships already there that they could carry out a lot of this. And they have enough marines and personnel that if they needed to do boarding. So stop a ship, board it, maybe search it, maybe seize it. They do have enough for a select number of ships, not the number the hundred plus that used to go through the strait before the war started, but a select number. But what's really critical here is it's not clear how exactly this is going to play out. We've been watching all day since the start at 10 o' clock this morning Eastern time to see if there were any confrontations. So far we've not seen any. These are ships that are leaving Iranian ports or coastal areas and trying to transit out through the Strait of Hormuz. At least two have turned around before they actually went into sort of a choke point of the Strait of Hormuz. We don't really know why they've turned around. We've been asking that question, but that's the closest that we've seen. I think the real big question here is exactly what would happen if a ship tried to make it all the way through after leaving an Iranian port?

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Would that be rules of engagement that we need to know more about, which

[Kevin Donegan]

normally the military doesn't talk about here. But the way that President Trump is speaking about this on Truth Social, it certainly seems as if they would use force to stop a ship from going. But again, we just haven't seen it happen yet. They have everything that they need to do that if they decide to.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

There is sort of a Venezuelan boat comparison that the administration has made talking about if these vessels get too close to the US that they would sort of duplicate what we saw off the coast of Venezuela with what they claimed were drug boats blowing them out of the ocean. Is that an apples to apples comparison?

[Kevin Donegan]

The big difference here is those have been small boats for the most part, or much smaller than when we're talking about a tanker or a big shipping liner of some sort, which is largely what we would see going through the Strait of Hormuz. Now there is the possibility, I've been asking this question I don't have an answer to. It is what would happen if some of these smaller areas, Iranian fast boats were to deploy around one of these tankers? What would happen? We have absolutely seen these fast boats move through the Strait of Hormuz and harass ships. For years now. We've seen that happen. I don't have an answer to that,

[Kelly O'Donnell]

but the reality is are those military.

[Kevin Donegan]

They are, they're Iranian, generally Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. And they aren't even all. Some of them are just unmanned.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

So when the president says the Iranian navy has been fully decimated, they at least still have some of those ships.

[Kevin Donegan]

They have, yeah. Most of the large surface ships have largely been either destroyed, badly damaged, but they still have we don't even know how many of these small boats they have. And they present a huge threat because they're small, they're fast. Exactly. I mean, I would remind you what it was that hit into the USS Cole more than 20 years ago. A small boat just like that.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

You also have some reporting about China. We know the President intends to go to China soon. We know that China and Iran have long been partners. What are you learning?

[Julie Cirkin]

Yeah.

[Kevin Donegan]

So there's a US Intelligence believes that China is planning to send Iran some air defense systems or some parts for an air defense system system in the coming weeks. That's according to an official who's been briefed on this intelligence. What's really critical here is we have seen China help out in conflicts including the war in Ukraine. They've provided non lethal parts, components, even some drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. And the argument there is, well, these are non lethal things, but the reality is Russia is able to take these non lethal components and often apply them on the battlefield with lethal effects. If we're talking about air defense missiles, yes, they may not necessarily be a lethal weapon right off.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

It's tipping the scale.

[Kevin Donegan]

Well, but also if an air defense system hits a US Aircraft, that absolutely has lethal effects. So this would absolutely be a provocation and definitely an expansion of what we have seen China do even recently.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

We'll be looking for more on that. Thank you so much, Courtney. Thank you, Julie. And joining me now for more analysis is retired Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. navy's Fifth Fleet. He's now a distinguished military fellow at the Middle East Institute. So glad to have you here and to bring your expert, your expertise to us. When you hear the President talking about a naval blockade the way he has described it, what do you anticipate the rules of engagement would be? Knowing, as we just discussed with Courtney, that's not typically publicly discussed, but what

[Wendy Sherman]

would you expect, Kelly, what I listen to is, because it helps me focus a little bit better, is I listen to what CENTCOM and Brad Cooper and Kurt Renshaw, who are running the operation, have said in their releases and what they've said their job is to do is to, is to basically not allow ships to either leave or enter Iranian ports across the whole coastline, both north of the straits, in the straits and in the Gulf of Oman. So that doesn't mean necessarily, though, that the US Is going to get up close and personal, so to speak, and put ships right into the middle of the straits or even close to the Iranian coastline. I would assume, and this is don't have this for certain. But a better tactic would likely be to monitor what those ships are doing with surveillance assets and such, because there are lots of those in the region. And then as those ships exit and get more into the waters where the ships currently are more of a sanctuary for the US Ships, that's where they would take care of whatever they're going to do with those ships. But they also said it's entering or leaving, so they'd be looking at ships going both ways. But as you just noticed, it's not hundreds of ships now that are going. And most all the ships that are leaving are generally part of the flow of Iranian goods or oil coming and going.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

And would you anticipate that this will remain more of a surveillance operation as opposed to actual strikes? And if the US Were to make strikes, would that require any additional authorities?

[Wendy Sherman]

The way that this typically plays out is these ships aren't crewed by the irgc, right? These ships are crewed by mariners from different countries under different flags that are professionals in some way that even the Shadow Fleet has mariners that generally follow the guidelines and rules. So what typically would happen in a situation like this is those ships will come out, and when they're identified as having been in an Iranian port, they'll then be talked to by the US and the US Will give them some direction on what to do. A few will probably try to spoof this by changing their automatic indication system that tells you who they are, maybe change their name, maybe hug the coastline, things like that. But it. But in general, I'm not expecting that this will be a confrontation, so to speak, initially. Instead, it would be identifying the ships that are there, determining if they did enter port, and then if they're a sanctioned ship, then there's other options you can do. Like you saw with Venezuela when there were sanctioned ships, and that's a lot of them. About 87 or so percent of the ships that are carrying oil for Iran are already sanctioned by the United States.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Do you get a sense that strategically this is about creating pressure on the Iranian regime to return to talks, or is it about inflicting more harm on the broader Iranian society?

[Wendy Sherman]

I don't think it's the latter, Kelly. The way that, you know, we're in the situation we're in, right? And everyone can look backwards and maybe doesn't want to be where we are right now, but it is where we are. The talks have gone on, right? And neither side, as was rightly pointed out, they haven't come to agreement. But they also didn't say the talks were stopped. Neither side has said that. So I think that's important. And clearly both sides are trying to leverage what they have to their advantage. And this puts pressure on, on Iran in a different way. And it also puts, you know, when, when you look at that, it's probably, you know, what would be the other option? Going back to bombing. Again, it allows some room for negotiation because it's not as aggressive. Now, what we don't know the key unknown here is what will Iran do when we start stopping a ship? Will they do what they said that their rhetoric was, if the US Stops ships, that it's an illegal action and we're going to bomb Gulf nation ports. Now, this is coming from a nation that mined the straits. So illegal action, you know, I guess it's where you sit.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Well, and you've given us sort of a window for our next conversation. So, Admiral Donegan, thank you for that. Because you talked about talks have not been set aside entirely. And so joining us now is Wendy Sherman, former deputy secretary at the State Department during the Biden administration. She was also one of the lead negotiators of the Iran nuclear deal during the Obama years. So wonderful to have you. You bring a lot of expertise to this. Good to see you, as always. And when you were across the table and talking with Iranian officials, you have that experience, you've been in the room. What do you think based on your experience was happening this weekend behind closed doors during the 21 hours when it was Vice President Vance, Kushner and Witkoff across the table?

[Julie Cirkin]

So here's the good news. When the vice President, Witkoff and Kushner went this time, they brought a team of experts with them. In previous negotiating meetings, they had not. And this is a highly technical set of challenges that really take a lot of time to negotiate. And you need some experts to help you do that. On the other hand, there is no way they were going to get to an agreement even in 21 hours, because there are multiple issues. They each have technical elements. They each have to have not only what you agreed to, but how are you going to implement it, how are you going to enforce it? How are you going to verify it? All of these things take a lot of time to figure out, negotiate every single detail. The Iranians are excellent negotiators. Abbas Arachi, who's now the foreign minister, was my counterpart during the negotiations in 2015, is very smart, is very determined, he's very tough, and he knows every single Detail down to the technical details of what needs to be decided. So if the Trump administration really wants to get to a deal here, it's going to take more than 20 hours.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

That's great context. And of course, when the president says no nuclear capability, that's the big sweeping overall thematic approach. But you're talking about all the scientific specifics that would effectively be in a contract if they were to agree to change things. And that's where that expertise comes in. When you talk about the willingness of the president says they're saying they would be willing to give up their enrichment capabilities, and yet we don't see evidence of that. Is that something that is really just the kind of final line for Iran, that giving that up would permanently weaken them and their ambitions? Is that a line that you think is just going to be too difficult? Obviously, with Japan, cpoa you had some willingness to not go toward the weaponry, but only for the civilian purposes. Where are we on that today? And have the current events changed where Iran sits on this issue?

[Julie Cirkin]

So it appears that the vice president in his press conference after the Islamabad meeting said that the United States put a demand down to end all enrichment and the Iranians would not agree. In other words, would not capitulate. This is a negotiation. It's not a capitulation for either side. It's a negotiation. There are some reports out today that the United States asked that Iran not enrich for 20 years and Iran came back with a single digit. That means there is a negotiation underway. And it would be worthwhile to continue to have those talks and to try to dig into that. Iran believes that it has a right to enrich for civil nuclear purposes and under the non Proliferation Treaty. Many countries, not the US but many countries believe that right does exist in what was written in that treaty. And this is very much a matter of pride for Iran. Look, Iran is a terrible regime. It slaughtered its own people, the protesters who were just wanting freedom and a better way of life. So I hold no brook for this regime. That said, it is existential for them. They believe they must hold on to this right. They are willing to constrain it as they did in the jcpoa, but they are not willing to give it up. There are creative ways around this. The Trump administration has to decide. It wants to find those creative ways.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

And do you see the current blockade strategy that the president, or at least if I don't call it a strategy, this move the President is making, do you think that would be effective in enhancing negotiations, putting more pressure to reach A deal or is it just a placeholder as we see where this all heads?

[Julie Cirkin]

Well, the dangerous part of the blockade is the president clearly wants to create economic cost for Iran. And there's no doubt that if they can't export many of their materials, including oil, fertilizer, helium, other things, that they will take an economic hit. But they are a culture of resistance and they have outlasted in the Iran Iraq war. It was eight years of war. They are pretty resistant and pretty persistent. And I think they can outlast us and they can take actions. They can hit our Gulf partners. They can use their fast boats, as you were discussing previously. They can use coastal missile barrages, so they have a lot of tools. Or they can just sit and wait us out as the price of oil goes up around the world, which will hurt our economy and American citizens who are already totally against this war and the effort that the president is making. So we'll see what happens here. But one of my great concerns, actually two, one that we will stop a Chinese or a Russian ship and then what will we do and what will the reaction be? And we've unsanctioned Russian oil, which gives them more money to attack Ukraine. And the other problem we have here, Kelly, why we really need to deal here is that Iran's regime is now more hardline than ever. It is controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I think over time they may decide they have to go for a nuclear weapon in order to deter further attacks. That wouldn't be good at all. I agree with the president on that. But it also would encourage other countries around the world to believe they need to get nuclear weapons. And then we would be in a whole different world, one that would be pretty awful.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Those are some very daunting possibilities that you lay out. And I know that's coming from a lot of knowledge and experience in these issues. Thank you, Wendy Sherman. We, we so appreciate your time and look forward to talking to you again soon. And coming up, the president versus the Pope. Two global leaders at odds over the war in Iran as President Trump faces backlash for posting an image on social media that appeared to to to depict himself as a Christ like figure. Plus, Blue's Clues, a top election forecaster says the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats favor as the race for congressional control takes shape. You're watching Meet the Press now.

[Sahil Kapoor]

Your phone is your lifeline. Calling your kid to say goodnight, waiting on a job callback or just sending a meme to your best friend when it's been that kind of day wherever life takes you, the TextNow app keeps you connected for free. Get a real phone number, unlimited talk and text, and 5G data for your favorite apps, all for $0 a month. No fixed contracts, no hidden fees, no panic when bills pile up. Just phone service that's there when it matters most. TextNow, we've got your back. Download TextNow in your app Store today. Wireless plans require the purchase of a sim card. Visit textnow.com for terms and conditions.

[Julie Cirkin]

Stay informed with the NBC News app.

[NBC News Reporter]

Breaking news just coming in moments ago.

[Julie Cirkin]

Watch, read and listen throughout your day and now unlock even more with a subscription. It's the best of NBC News with with fewer ad interruptions, including ad free articles, podcasts and full NBC News shows. Plus deeper access and exclusive content.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Let's just take a step back.

[Julie Cirkin]

It's more context and clarity from the reporters you trust. Download the NBC News app now and subscribe for more.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Welcome back. Turning now to the escalating tension between the American President and the first American born Pope. Now over the weekend, President Trump lashing out at the pontiff for criticizing the war against Iran, calling him weak and terrible on social media posts and telling reporters he's not a big fan of Pope Leo. Today, the President doubling down, saying he will not apologize for those comments. Do you apologize?

[President Donald Trump]

No, I don't. Because Pope Leo said things that are wrong. There's nothing to apologize for. He's wrong. The other thing is he didn't like what we're doing with respect to Iran. But Iran is a wants to be a nuclear nation so they can exterminate the world.

[NBC News Reporter]

Not going to happen.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

NBC's own Claudio Lavagna, traveling with the Holy Father, asked Leo about the President's criticisms earlier today. This is what he said.

[President Donald Trump]

I have no fear.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Neither the Trump administration nor speaking out

[President Donald Trump]

loudly about the message of the Gospel. That's what I believe.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

I am called to do what the church is called to do.

[President Donald Trump]

We're not politicians. We're not willing to make foreign policy, as he calls it, with the same perspective and that he might understand it. But I do believe that the message of the Gospel, blessed are the peacemakers,

[Julie Cirkin]

is the message that the world needs to hear today.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Also today, the President was drawing widespread backlash for posting this AI generated image of himself appearing as a Christ like figure that has now been removed from the President's social media account. And today the President expressed no remorse about that. He did not say why. The image has since been deleted. While offering this explanation about the imagery in the post itself, I did post

[President Donald Trump]

it, and I thought it was me as a doctor and had to do with Red Cross, as a Red Cross worker there, which we support. It's supposed to be me as a doctor making people better. And I do make people better. I make people a lot better.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Now, there was no stethoscope and there were no, you know, doctor outfit there, but that's up for you to decide. This all comes after American Christians of many denominations overwhelmingly supported the president in the 2024 election. That includes a significant 25 point swing among U.S. catholics in favor of the president compared to the election in 2020. And joining me now is Elizabeth Dies, national religion correspondent for the New York Times. So glad to have you here. Thank you for being with us. I wanted to start in our conversation with you about this very direct engagement from the president to the pope over the last few days, do you sense that the reaction to it, the outrage, is bigger than the Catholic community itself?

[Elizabeth Dias]

The outrage that I've heard about the president's direct attack by name, really, on Pope Leo, has been very widespread across most sectors of the Catholic Church and even Christians in other denominations. It's been really the first direct rant against Pope Leo. We saw this much more when the dynamic was Pope Francis, who was far more vocal than Pope Leo has been so far in taking on President Trump's policies. Even before he became president, Pope Francis was saying that Mr. Trump was not a Christian, which drew the president's great ire. But this looks pretty different because Pope Leo hasn't been known to be combative. He is soft spoken. And yet he has taken time at key moments in recent months to speak out on Catholic teaching against war and for the migrant.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

When we look at American Catholics and how they play into the political space, they can be a large voting bloc. They can be very dominant in critical states that are important in midterm elections and in presidential elections. We know that a majority voted for the president in 2024. Does this register as just a blip or as whatever offense may have been taken or whatever disagreement some may have with it? Do you sense that it has a real effect on how people might view the president for a longer term, more than just these couple of days?

[Taryn Rosenkranz]

Right.

[Elizabeth Dias]

I mean, I've heard from Catholics in swing districts today, swing political districts who may have voted for President Trump, you know, one or two or even, you know, many times who are saying this was too far for them. I mean, the midterms are very far away. The future of the MAGA movement, the Republican Party is, of course, still in flux. There's outrages almost every day of different kinds. But attacking the Holy Father, especially someone that many conservative Catholics have really felt an affinity to in a way they didn't for the previous Pope. This is really potentially more damaging than the President realizes, which is a reason, I think, the backlash was so swift. And the image, the most controversial image, which appeared to be President Trump laying his hand on the head of a sick person in a pose and outfit very similar to Jesus in much of Catholic art history. It's a reason that that's no longer posted on the president's social media feed.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

It's filled with religious overtones and implications there. Part of this seems to be the choices this administration is making. The President acknowledges he posted that. We've also heard some criticism of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegspeth and the way he has talked about religious issues in connection with the war. Some of the tension appears to be the Pope has denounced the war, talking about the gospel, being about peacemaking. And Hegseth, who is evangelical Christian, has talked about actions with sort of religious imagery himself. We've got some of those that I want to play for you. And then we can talk about Blessed be the Lord, my rock, who trains my hands for war and my fingers for battle.

[NBC News Reporter]

Flown out of Iran as the sun

[Kelly O'Donnell]

was rising on Easter Sunday, a pilot

[NBC News Reporter]

reborn all home and accounted for a

[President Donald Trump]

nation rejoicing God is good, but God

[Alexander Smith]

deserves all the glory.

[NBC News Reporter]

Tens of thousands of sorties, refuelings and

[Kelly O'Donnell]

strikes carried out under the protection of divine providence. A massive effort with miraculous protection. In your reporting, does that kind of language, does it upset church leadership across not only the Catholic Church, but a broad list of religious leaders. Is that going too far?

[Elizabeth Dias]

Progressive Christians absolutely have been very upset by that kind of language. It's interesting, though, to note that the Secretary of War's language, I mean, you noted he's evangelical, is very different from what we hear from, say, Vice President J.D. vance, who is the nation's most high profile Catholic convert. And this is language that's not as familiar for Catholics. It stands very socially evangelical and sort of apocalyptic in this way that makes many people feel uncomfortable, especially if they may already be unsure about the purpose of US Military actions in Iran. So it'll be very interesting to watch what happens between the Pentagon and the White House on this kind of divine language and how the evangelical and Catholic base may respond differently amongst itself about that, which would be an interesting development about the future of the MAGA movement heading into the midterm election.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

It is indeed an interesting time on your beat. Elizabeth, thank you so much for being with us. And we'll follow your reporting in the weeks to come as this, this issue may have legs. We'll see up next, hungry for change. Hungarian prime minister and Trump ally Viktor Orban ousted in national elections despite the Trump administration's campaign to keep the far right leader in power. What that means for Europe and the US Stay with us on MEET THE PRESS now. We're so glad you're back with us. And turning now to a stunning election result in Hungary. After 16 years in power, Prime Minister Viktor Orban conceded defeat in the country's parliamentary elections. Orban was a trailblazer for the global hard right. You know, he was an ally of President Donald Trump, who dispatched his Vice President, J.D. vance to Hungary to campaign with Orban just last week. Orban was also an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, putting him at odds with the rest of the European Union over the war in Ukraine. In his victory speech today, Peter Magyar, a former member of Orban's party who now leads his own center right party, pledging to be a, quote, unquote, constructive partner in Europe. And joining me now is NBC News senior reporter Alexander Smith. I know you've been following this closely. Take us through the result. Was this as surprising in Hungary as it may have been to observers here?

[Alexander Smith]

Well, if you look at the raw data, actually this might have not seemed like such a surprise because Peter Magian led most polls since late 2024. He was really the big favorite before this election. But the context here means this was actually colossal. As I think you said, Viktor Orban led Hungary for 16 years and really reshaped the country in his own image. He restricted the freedom of the courts, restricted the freedom of the judiciary. And he really made this an uphill struggle for anyone who was going to challenge him on the electoral stage. So much so that the European Parliament said that Hungary could no longer be considered democracy. So these elections were often seen as free but not exactly fair. Now, this was not a close election. This was an absolute landslide. Petromaggior has a super majority now, which means that he may be able to repeal a lot of Viktor Orban's state. But we should really see this from a voter perspective as a real repudiation of the last 16 years. And what a lot of people told me when I was visiting Hungary last week was that they're just very tired. This was not an election about big geopolitical themes. It was about the economy. It was about rising prices. It was about corruption. It was about a state that most people just felt wasn't working anymore. So, yes, this is a huge result in the context of Hungary and also Europe.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

And notably, he did concede, Orban did concede, even in the context that you laid out for us, of how authoritarian his leadership had become. So you sort of describe this as a change moment. And when you see the vice president use some of his political capital and the administration's capital to be there trying to urge voters in Hungary to support Orban, what does that say about the influence of the US and the administration in Hungary or perhaps more broadly on the global stage?

[Alexander Smith]

Look, I think a lot of pundits and observers will see this as pretty embarrassing for the Trump administration. As you say, the vice president flew all the way to Hungary just days before the votes. In a real break from precedent. We don't really see US Governments or any other Western governments really doing this, parachuting into the final days of an election campaign to throw their weight behind one of their allies whose numbers are really flailing. So I don't think that's a great look for the Trump administration and its ability to project soft power abroad. However, I think we should also say that the US Was never going to sway this election. Orban has been in power for 16 years, and most voters had already made up their minds. They were obviously undecided, but they weren't going to be swayed by a vice president flying in at the last minute. As I said before, this was an election one on the economy, really. It was an election one on corruption. Most voters paraphrased James Carville to some extent. They were just fed up of rising prices. They were fed up of the sense that their country was corrupt. Transparency International says that it's one of the most corrupt countries in Europe. So, yes, it's pretty embarrassing for the Trump administration. But also, this was not really a reflection on Vance or the Trump administration that Orban lost.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Well, Alex, thank you for helping us to understand the conditions on the ground and what brought this to be. Thank you for your reporting. We appreciate it so much. And after the break, the Swalwell scandal. The California Democrat drops his bid for governor and now faces calls to resign from Congress as multiple women, including a former staffer, come forward with allegations of sexual misconduct. We're live on Capitol Hill with the latest. Keep it here on MEET THE PRESS now. Welcome back now to the story of Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell. He has suspended his campaign for California. California Governor Swalwell announced his decision late yesterday on social media after several women, including a former staffer, accused him of sexual misconduct. The accusations range from lewd text messages to rape, an allegation the congressman denies. Swalwell tweeting last night, I'm deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I've made in my past. I will fight the serious false allegations that have been made, but that's my fight, not a campaign's. The congressman's attorney sending a cease and desist letter to the former staffer who is alleging Swalwell sexually assaulted her in two separate instances while she was intoxicated. The Manhattan district attorney's office confirms to NBC News that it is launching a criminal investigation into one of those incidents, which allegedly happened in a New York City hotel room in 2024. Now, the house Ethics Committee says it is also investigating Swalwell as a growing number of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, as well as dozens of former staffers, are calling on Swalwell to resign from Congress. NBC News chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles is tracking all of this and joining me now. So the House Ethics Committee is investigating, and do we have a sense if that will stall any other moves from Congress while it does its own work?

[NBC News Reporter]

Well, in the past, Kelly, that's exactly what has happened. Usually the Ethics Committee is the first step, step toward finding any sort of resolution when it comes to matters like these, unless the lawmaker is willing to take action on their own. And there is a growing chorus of calls for Eric Swalwell to just step away from his congressional seat, to resign and leave this ugly chapter behind so that the House of Representatives no longer has to deal with it. But if he refuses to do that, and so far up until this point, he has not expressed any effort or willingness to step down from his position, it will be the Ethics Committee that takes the ball and carries it to the next stage of all of this. And those investigations take time. It will include calling in witnesses for depositions and interviews. It will mean collecting evidence and materials related to the claims. And then it could even get to the stage of a trial, which the Ethics Committee has done in previous interventions, instances. So it's not as if an expulsion vote, which is something many are calling for, could happen as soon as this week. There will need to be a lengthy process to get to that point. The question is, will Swal well stand in the way of all of it and just decide to resign on his own? Because as we've seen in previous ethics investigations, they could uncover things that we don't even know yet and have not been out there. And as soon as he's no longer a member of Congress, Congress, that investigation would stop, Kelly.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

And we don't know what other shoes may drop in terms of what others may say about their knowledge of its conduct. Do you get a sense then, I take it from your comments that simply getting out of the California race with its high profile is not enough to blunt the problem for him politically?

[NBC News Reporter]

Not at all, Kelly. In fact, when Congress returns here tomorrow and the House of Representatives returns here tomorrow after their a spring break, you can only expect that that call for him to leave office will increase. And not only that, it's also raised new issues and questions about the other members of Congress who have been accused of similar sexual misconduct. The best example being Representative Tony Gonzalez of Texas, who is accused of having a sexual relationship with a staffer who then later took her own life and has also been accused of sending lewd text messages and other pictures to members of his staff. It is explicitly against House rules for members of Congress to have intimate relationships with their staffers. And there's a whole other group of members of Congress who've had accusations against them in the past. Who there are, frankly, a group of members that are just sick and tired of being associated with them. So. So this is an ongoing conversation that's happening here in Washington, and Eric Swalwell being willing to just step out of the governor's race is not going to stop that conversation from continuing.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

And do you think each of the members who have their own issues and are in this area of getting a lot of scrutiny, will they be judged as a group or completely individually based on the facts that associated with there, or is there a push to deal with all of them at the same time? And we know that expelling members is exceedingly rare in Congress.

[NBC News Reporter]

It's such a great question, Kelly, and it shows your understanding of how this place works. Right. There's always a political element to all of this, and we are dealing with extraordinarily tight margins between Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives. So you could see a possible exit, exit ramp here where there are an equal number of Republicans and Democrats who are accused of things that are in violation of the House rules that are all expelled at the same time. So therefore, it does not impact the margins in any meaningful way. And you could get wide bipartisan support for something like that to happen. The only issue with that is the timing of it. In terms of Congressman Gonzalez, there's been a Lengthian ethics investigation into him that's already been underway for several weeks. That could be close to being wrapped up with Congressman Swalwell. They just started that investigation today. So it might take several months before you got to the point where you could put them both on the floor for an expulsion vote. But what is interesting about this, Kelly, and perhaps what's different in this era of Congress that we're in now is that that there was an expulsion not too long ago and that involved, of course, the former congressman Jorge Santos. So there's precedent here for moving on this in a very quick fashion in a way that didn't exist here for decades. The type of incidents that would require expulsion were just so grave that it was almost impossible to make it happen. That's not the case anymore. And these members are much more willing to boost one of their own if they think they've done something that doesn't abide by the standard they're trying to hold here in Washington.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

The Hill on hyperspeed. Ryan, thank you so much. Appreciate your insights. And now we're going to bring this to the panel. NBC senior national political reporter Sahil Kapoor joins me and Taryn Rosenkranz, former managing director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and founder of and CEO of New Blue Interactive and Republican strategist Malik Abdullah. Now we have plenty to talk about. First, let me just start with you, Sahil. When you look at these allegations and what it means to the Democratic brand broadly at a time when they feel so good about their potential to reclaim the House, maybe even the Senate, we've seen some movement. How damaging are these problems?

[Sahil Kapoor]

Seriously damaging. But more so if Democrats are seen as protecting Swalwell. That's where it elevates. If they're not, then it's a very different story. Then this is a case of one man doing some bad things. So far, we've seen Democrats successfully push him out of the governor's race. That's just a start. They've supported an Ethics committee investigation. Just moments ago, a group of more than a dozen House Democrats came out and said it should be expedited as well. Some have already come out and said he should be expelled. So this is the kind of thing that signals that they're not going to support this behavior and tolerate this behavior. Now there's also, in addition to Eric Swalwell, another Democrat, SHE lecturer Phyllis McCormick under ethics investigation for allegedly stealing taxpayer money. Ryan talked about Tony Gonzalez as well as Corey Mills, another Republican who's been accused of sexual misconduct under investigation. So there's it's not A one party problem. It's not a one party problem. And there, let's say there are a lot of options that the House has in front of them in terms of deciding whether they're going to put up with this and where they're going to draw the line.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

And Taryn, you've been in these rooms where you're deciding campaign issues and when you talk about the nature of these allegations and Swalwell den some of the allegations, he has acknowledged some misjudgments. We don't know exactly what that means. Does this now rise to Democratic leadership in the House and any responsibility they have for protecting their own staffers, for how they set standards?

[Taryn Rosenkranz]

Yeah, I think you'll see a lot of this discussion come up again. I mean, I think there's going to be more joins in the chorus for the call for him to resign. I can't imagine anything different at this point. Especially, you know, I don't think anyone's saying don't investigate, but him being resigned still continues a criminal investigation, as we saw and some of the other things. And I think that just all around, we are as a Democratic Party really committed to making sure that we are transparent and honest. And that's been this big belief and talking point. And we really have to act as we are saying. And so I think you're gonna continue to see that there will be meetings there of asking him to resign and if they have to step in to do something, those meetings will be happening, I'm sure.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

And as we said, Republicans have their own set of issues. How do you think the party needs to respond in this moment? Is it kind of equal justice across the way or is there an opportunity to do some positioning based on the different circumstances among these members?

[Malik Abdullah]

Well, I think the inclination, simply because we're in politics, is to make it political so one side has a political advantage over the other. But at the end of the day, when it comes to assault, I do think it's something that we need to take seriously. At the end of the day, I do also believe that there are people who I think all of the victims or alleged victims need to be heard. That doesn't necessarily mean they need to be believed. So I think we also need to be cognizant of that fact that at this point these are just accusations. But I do believe that there is a responsibility on Congress to govern itself. Has that ever happened?

[Kelly O'Donnell]

No, it's always challenging. But they do have the levers of control right now. And would you expect that the speaker, for example, would want to have a slow process, a swift process. Any sense of what you would expect given the pressures of this moment and the limited time until November.

[Malik Abdullah]

I would imagine, especially considering the numbers in Congress, that Speaker Johnson would be reluctant to kind of push to move, push one of the members out of Congress. I do think that the members themselves, though, they could take that upon themselves. But I doubt very seriously that there would be any push for Johnson to expel a member of Congress. Until we get more information. I think where everybody is sitting on is saying that at this point these are just allegations.

[Sahil Kapoor]

You hate to think that the tiny margins in the House matter. It's like they absolutely think politics.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

They do for a lot of reasons, even though the public will probably find that. Yet another thing that's terribly annoying from the House now we've talked about that. Let's move to the Senate because there's some interesting new information from the Cook Political Report shifting four races in the favor of Democrats on the Senate side. So we see these. This is really critical terrain for this year. Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Nebraska. What does this tell us about how voters are feeling statewide races, not just dependable districts. What's your take with this shift?

[Sahil Kapoor]

The entire national political environment is deteriorating substantially for Republicans and we see that on a number of different vectors. It's remarkable to see where some of these races are rated. Georgia being lean Democrat. This is a race that's been or a state that's been historically Republican. Donald Trump just won it in 2024. Now it's lean Democrat. They have a strong incumbent in Jon Ossoff who's raising a lot of money and positioning himself well. It's even more stunning to see North Carolina rated lean Democrat. Democrats have not won there since 2008. They always come up just a little bit short. But the fact is they have the candidate they wanted in the two term Governor Roy Cooper against a Republican who's

[Kelly O'Donnell]

a former officer candidate. Quality matters.

[Sahil Kapoor]

Absolutely. It matters.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Ohio, you've got Sherrod Brown running again.

[Sahil Kapoor]

Ohio, I think the candidate contrast is, yes, useful to Democrats. Nebraska is still very much a long shot. But the fact that even that is moving tells you something.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

It does tell us something. So Malik, what do we think in terms of the amount of time it's April feels like a long way to November. What do you think Republicans would need to do to change the trajectory of voter sentiment?

[Malik Abdullah]

Well, the irony is, is that it's not so much of what Republicans need to do. It's more so Donald Trump, remember earlier in the year there were conversations from Susie Wiles about how Donald Trump's being all that helpful.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Is he.

[Malik Abdullah]

Well, that's what I was going there is that, you know, Donald Trump was going to focus a lot on the economy. I think it's hard to argue that he's been focused on the economy. And so I talked to people at the nrsc, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and although they have talked about those states, they kind of thought that Georgia would go off of anyway since Brian Kemp decided not to run. But they're looking at what happens because the motivation, momentum here. And that when you look at a place like, like Texas, Beto O' Rourke beat Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. That was when he ran against Ted Cruz. Well, Talarico is. People seem to like him more. So I think that Republicans are looking at that with Donald Trump deciding that he's not going to endorse at all if Cornyn ends up winning. Well, if Magus says, well, we don't like Cornyn, we're going to stay at home. That could potentially impact a place like Texas.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

There were people who believed Beto O' Rourke was going to win that.

[Malik Abdullah]

Yeah, but 2.6%. That's actually.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

But Cruz won. Yes, yes. Just clearing that up.

[Malik Abdullah]

Yes. I'm sorry.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

Yes, yes, yes. Just because that was an alternate universe we were in for a while. Do you get the sense that it's candidate quality in Georgia, it's an incumbent. That is part of it.

[Taryn Rosenkranz]

I do think that's part of it. I think you have a very solid person who's talking. The thing is with all of the candidates, they are talking about what matters to Americans and what's happening at home, which is that things are not feeling affordable. Everything feels too expensive, whether you're at the gas pump for your car, if you're trying to get on a flight, everything is impacting by what's happening and Donald Trump is continuing to ignore it. So when you have candidates that are talking about, here's what I can do, here's what can happen, here's how I can make it better for you. People are feeling listened to and that's having an impact.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

I had so many more things on my list. Panel, we've got to have you back to keep that conversation going. Thank you to each of you. Appreciate your expertise. We will be back tomorrow with more MEET the PRESS now. And we're glad you could stay with us. More news coming up on NBC News. Now, he was a young Marine.

[Malik Abdullah]

She didn't care about convention.

[Kelly O'Donnell]

They made a life together.

[Malik Abdullah]

Then one night, the Marine died. And then the death investigation took a wild, unexpected and utterly bizarre turn. I'm Josh Mankiewicz and this is Trace

[Wendy Sherman]

of Suspicion, an all new podcast from Dateline. Listen to all episodes of Trace of Suspicion now, wherever you get your podcasts.