Political Analyst/Willie Geist (2:02)

I hope that they're smart. The president has set a deadline for

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (2:05)

about 12 hours from now in the United States. We're going to find out, but there's going to be a lot of negotiation between now and then, and I'm hopeful that it gets to a good resolution. The president, United States is a man who recognizes leverage, that if the Iranians want to exact a certain amount of pain, the United States has the ability to exact much, much greater pain. The president doesn't want to do that. I don't want to do that. That's why we're negotiating so aggressively. But fundamentally, the Ball is in the Iranians court.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (2:31)

We feel that we can get a response whether it's positive or negative.

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (2:35)

We're going to get a response from the Iranians by 8 o' clock tonight. I hope they make the right response.

Host/Moderator (2:41)

Iran's state media releasing these images today of what they say are civilians responding to the government's call to form human chains around power plants and bridges throughout the country ahead of possible strikes. In a brief phone call with NBC's Gabe Gutierrez just moments ago, the president sharply criticized those calls for human shields, calling them, quote, totally illegal and saying, quote, they're not allowed to do that. As the clock counts down, we should note that the president has extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait multiple times. It started more than two weeks ago with a post on social media saying Iran had 48 hours or the US would obliterate its power plants. Two days later, the president announced a five day pause on those strikes, citing good and productive talks with Iran. And two days after that, he pushed the deadline another 10 days to yesterday at 8pm and then on Sunday, he moved it back one more day to today. Yesterday I asked the president about the possibility that tonight's deadline could move yet again. Mr. President, since you did move the deadline back a couple of times, are you prepared to move the deadline back again? Highly unlikely.

Senator Bill Cassidy (3:49)

They've had plenty of time.

Host/Moderator (3:50)

In fact, they asked for seven days.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (3:52)

I said I'm going to give you 10.

Host/Moderator (3:55)

But at the end of 10, all

International Correspondent/Keir Simmons (3:56)

hell is going to break out if

Host/Moderator (3:57)

you don't get there. Joining me now is NBC News chief justice and national affairs correspondent Kelly o'. Donnell. At the White House, NBC News senior national security correspondent Courtney Kuby is with me on set. NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons is in Riyadh. And also with me is NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung. Thank you all for being here to start us off. Kelly, I want to begin with you. What do we actually know about how the president is spending the day today with this major deadline looming? And what are we hearing from the White House about what might come?

White House Correspondent/Kelly O'Donnell (4:29)

Well, good afternoon, Monica. And certainly the White House is aware that there is a clock running toward the deadline the president set. And we've seen that the sentry is at the West Wing door, meaning the president's in the working spaces of the West Wing. But we don't know a great deal about how he is processing this information. As you alluded to, our colleague Gabe Gutierrez got him on the phone briefly and that gave a brief window into his thinking, where he was very critical of Iranian citizens who are engaged in protest in advance of this deadline. Now, that is notable in part because there have been many times in the run up to this that the President has talked about expecting that Iranians would at some point be in the streets to protest their regime. We've gone from help is on the way, part of a early social media post before these events unfolded, before the military campaign against Iran, to today's threat, which has certainly rattled many in Washington, where he's talked about the death of a civilization. Quite a bookmark of those two different sentiments. Also, the White House is giving us just a glimpse where Caroline Levitt is telling us that the deadline is at 8 o' clock tonight. She released a statement where she goes into the specifics here that the Iranian regime has until that Eastern time, that's about three in the morning in Iran. They are seven and a half hours ahead of east coast time. And then, notably here, only the President knows where things stand and what he will do. And as our colleague Gabe Gutierre is trying to assess that, whereas others on our team have been trying to get a sense of what movements in the preparation, planning and conversations may be going on, it is inscrutable at this moment. And we've seen the President in places like this before where he's made very bellicose threats, and then at times he has carried them out and at times he has pulled back. And it is just a tense time because of the extraordinary nature of the President's words and even being asked about what did he mean about that. We've heard him describe some of his most provocative social media posts or comments and basically saying he's intending to send a message or kind of leaving it up for everyone's interpretation. And that is in some ways a part of the chaotic way that the President likes to keep adversaries on off balance.

Host/Moderator (6:46)

MONICA Tense time, Kelly, with such charge rhetoric. I want to ask you about that specifically because the President is getting a lot of backlash from that post where he did say, quote, whole civilization could die. Tonight we did see Chuck Schumer call the President, quote, an extremely sick person. The House Democratic leadership said the president is, quote, completely unhinged for saying that. And even Marjorie Taylor Greene, who used to be an ally of the President's, called it evil and madness. So is the president or the White House at all concerned about the optics of using that kind of language?

White House Correspondent/Kelly O'Donnell (7:19)

KELLY there's no indication of that yet. And in the 10, 11 years of the President being on the national stage. There have been many times when he has said provocative things. What stands out about this is that the range of people responding to it. There is often a lull of people letting some of his controversial comments go by the wayside. And in the first term it was, well, the tweets were speak for themselves. Now these posts on Truth Social or whatever, you have lawmakers who sometimes just don't want to be pressed to respond to it. And in this case, we're seeing a very vigorous response from mostly Democrats, but also notably one Republican House member is saying today that he is concerned about the fact that this is a call for the end of a civilization, that that is not in the American way, that is not a part of American values, and that wartime may be filled with lots of complicating difficult situations, but kind of rhetoric reaches beyond. So there's definitely pushback to the president's positioning on this.

Host/Moderator (8:21)

Monica Kelly, thank you so much for starting us off. I do want to turn to Courtney now as we discuss the potential here. There have been so many discussions around whether striking Iran's civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime. What are you hearing about your sources about what kind of targets are under consideration?

Narrator/Commercial Voice (8:40)

And the reason that that's such a topic of conversation is because striking civilian infrastructure can be seen as a war crime. It violates the law of armed conflict, it violates the Geneva Convention, and it's an international against the Internet law internationally. So there are cases, though, where the US and others can make the case that something is a valid military target. And basically it's sort of like a dual use facility. So let's say that it's an electrical power plant that services the civilian population, but also plays a direct and distinct role in supporting the Iranian military, the Basij, the irgc, whatever it is. And then the question is, will the US Find justification for striking some facilities like that? We're told that the Pentagon has already drawn up plans for facilities just like like that should President Trump decide to move forward with these threats he's been making.

Host/Moderator (9:28)

You've been reporting for weeks now about the additional assets and resources that have been sent to the region. So what is the sort of current US Posture if they do decide closer to this deadline to act on it?

Narrator/Commercial Voice (9:39)

They are absolutely ready if the president decides that. I mean, and think it's the language he has used. We've been talking about this charged language, but it been charged about the possibility of these sorts of strikes for days now with him saying that the US Would be able to Obliterate all of this civilian infrastructure in a matter of a few hours. Well, that's a tall order. But the reality is the US has so much military might forward that they could do a lot of that. And it's not just that they can also bring additional assets. We have seen a lot of bombers that have been moving, and these are these big aircraft that carry big heavy bombs. In some cases, they're massive ordnance penetrators. They can dig down deep and sort of blast through rock and things. They've been bringing them over from the United States for days now and dropping bombs. So if the President decides to go through with this, the military can do it.

Host/Moderator (10:26)

And overnight we saw more action, specifically on Carg Island. Right. Talk about the significance of that. What was hit and why? Was it different or was it not that different from how they were hit the first time?

Narrator/Commercial Voice (10:37)

Yeah, I was really struck by when their first reports started coming out about potential US Military action on Carg island, because, as you know, a couple of weeks ago, the US Carried out a bunch of strikes on Carg Island. That's, of course, where the Iran has its oil and gas infrastructure, a significant amount of it. The first round of strikes several weeks ago was all against military infrastructure there. And we were told that there were upwards of 100 targets that were struck and they did a ton of damage there, maybe even taking out the vast majority of their military infrastructure on the entire island. So it was a little surprising to hear that they had taken more strikes. Most of these were restrikes, so they went back to the same locations. And in many cases it's things like bunkers that are buried deep underground. They struck them several times, maybe the first time over the course of days or even weeks with intelligence that comes in and they realize they didn't actually destroy the target. So then they'll go and they'll rehit them. We were assured that the strikes were all along the northern side of the island. They were military targets like these bunkers and air defense systems. But I was really struck by when we were asking questions about this, how US Officials were so adamant to say they were not targeting Iran's oil infrastructure with these strikes. It was solely going after the military targets. And that continues to be, as of this moment, anyway, 11pm Eastern Time, that the U.S. military continues to go after military targets inside Iran as of now,

Host/Moderator (11:56)

until that potentially changes again, it's hours right now. And wait, Courtney, Kibbie, thank you so much for your expertise on all of this. I do want to go to the region now to Kier and I want to check in and see what is the mood like as we get closer to this deadline where you are here

International Correspondent/Keir Simmons (12:15)

bracing themselves. I would describe it as here in the Gulf. I think particularly I'm in Saudi Arabia where they have been able to defend themselves pretty effectively, pretty successfully, albeit that, for example, a petrochemical plant was hit today according to the government. So strikes are having an impact, but I think for countries like Kuwait and Bahrain, Kuwait, for example, closer to Iran. So just think about it, they have less time to intercept missiles and drones. I think it's a real concern that the Iranians have threatened to respond so drastically and to target civilian infrastructure. Not that they haven't already been doing that they have been across the region, but that they are saying that they have been in Iranians view, holding back up until now and that they won't hold back any longer. I do think there are questions about just how much capacity Iran has to strike the Gulf after, you know, we've seen weeks of it and they have targeted, for example, desalination plants and it hasn't had, you know, a devastating impact. So I do think there are those questions. But certainly it is a nervous time here.

Host/Moderator (13:25)

Absolutely. Kira. And we did get some breaking news just in the last hour or so from the prime minister of Pakistan who said that he had specifically asked for President Trump to extend his deadline for at least two weeks. The White House press secretary, Caroline Levitt told NBC News that the president has been made aware of the proposal and that a response will come. So do you view that as a sign that there could be some kind of last minute deal here to avoid major escalation? Is that how you take it?

International Correspondent/Keir Simmons (13:57)

There's no doubt there could be a last minute deal. I think we should keep in mind what the president himself said yesterday, which is that they're having to pass handwritten notes, notes or at least written notes and not talk electronically because clearly Iranian leaders will be worried about being struck if they are communicating electronically. So I think we should be a little bit skeptical about exactly how much progress Pakistan has actually made. That being said, Qatar just talking today, their spokesman outlining how important they think it is the Qatar thinks it is that there is a deal. Take a listen.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (14:36)

This is why we have been urging all parties to find a resolution out of this, to find a way of ending this war before it spirals out of control. The continuation of this war in this way will only mean more costs for the people of the region, for the international peace and security for international economy, for international energy markets and its there are no winners in the continuation of this war. There are only losers. And the net of losers is expanding every day as a result of the ramifications of the economic situation.

International Correspondent/Keir Simmons (15:13)

I said it before, I'll say it again. There are two parts to this. One is President Trump's and Israel's threats against the Iranian economy. And then the other is trying to regain the initiative around the Straits of Hormuz. They are different. And the second point is about the potential for the US to take islands in the Gulf. I think that's still, still not off the table.

Host/Moderator (15:37)

Keir Simmons in Riyadh. Kier, thank you very much for your reporting. We just talked about the diplomatic path here potentially. I do want to turn now to the economic side of all of this and to Brian Chung. Brian, markets just closed relatively flat on the day. And as we now wait and see what could happen in the next few hours, what are markets anticipating? What are that, what does that tell you?

Business Correspondent/Brian Chung (16:00)

Yeah, Monica, the markets have had a whiplash of a day. If you rewind to earlier in the morning, it looked like we were going to be set for a deep red day on Wall street. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones down about 1% over the concerns that there would not be a resolution by the time we get to that deadline. And then as you see on the screen ahead of you, we actually ended the day positive on the S P 500, just barely. So about 1. 10 of a percent. The Dow Jones down only 2. 10 of a percent. Nothing particularly crazy on that front, but it all seemed to do with the developments over the final hour of trading in just last hour that you were talking about with all of our colleagues in the last few minutes about the optimism that perhaps the commentary coming out of Pakistan could at least provide the United States with some sort of resolution before this 8pm deadline. So from the perspective of investors at least, it does seem like there is some hope that there could be some resolution before the market opens tomorrow because again, markets did close 60 minutes ago, but again, that's a bet and we'll have to see.

Host/Moderator (16:59)

And against that backdrop, oil prices do continue to rise. So if the president does follow through on his threat tonight, potentially, what's your expectation specifically for oil futures?

Business Correspondent/Brian Chung (17:10)

Yeah, well, look, they have continued to rise is kind of the big story over the last few days. But there was some price action even since that Pakistan post that did point to optimism in the oil markets as well. Crude oil prices were something a little bit closer to $117 earlier today. You can see on the screen ahead of you the settlement was a little bit closer to $112. That decline over some of these headlines. But Monica, I mean, this just underscores the volatility that we've seen within the same day. You can see these huge price swings up and down. It's pretty binary. If there is an off ramp to this war, you see oil prices go down and markets go up. If there doesn't look like that off ramp is going to be there, well, then you see oil markets go up, prices a barrel go up and that also means markets go down. And of course, all that has ripple effects to us at the pump as prices on an average basis do breach $4 a gallon for everyone out there.

Host/Moderator (18:01)

That's the bottom line for the consumer. Brian Chung, thank you so much for bringing us that perspective. We're going to have much more on the political fallout from the war coming up, including MAGA influencers now pushing back on the president. But first, if it's Tuesday, it's Election Day in Georgia and Wisconsin where a pair of key races are poised to deliver some new clues about the political landscape heading into the midterms. We're on the ground with a view from voters. Plus, Steve Kornacki is at the big board tracking what to watch for as the results start coming in. You're watching Meet the Press now.

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Political Analyst/Willie Geist (18:58)

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Political Analyst/Willie Geist (19:25)

Hey guys, Willie Geist here reminding you to check out the Sunday Sit down podcast. On this week's episode, I get together with stand up comedy superstar Nate Bargetzi in front of a live audience at New York City Winery to talk about his rise from small clubs to sold out arenas around the world. You can get my conversation with Nate for free wherever you download your podcasts.

Host/Moderator (19:52)

Welcome back. If it's Tuesday, voters are voting somewhere. And today those somewheres are Georgia and Wisconsin. In Georgia, it's runoff day in the special election to fill former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat. Greene resigned from Congress earlier this year amid frustration with her party and the president. The Trump endorsed Republican candidate Clay Fuller is favored in this deep red district. He's facing Democrat Sean Harris, who advanced to the runoff after a crowded Republican Republican field split part of the vote. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Democrats are hoping to bolster their majority on the state Supreme Court one year after liberals won a high profile and expensive battle against conservatives. And Elon Musk securing the court's majority. NBC's Shaquille Brewster has more Wisconsin voters

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (20:38)

back at the polls for yet another tense Supreme Court race.

Host/Moderator (20:42)

In the battleground state, costs are on the rise.

Narrator/Commercial Voice (20:46)

Extremists are trying to eliminate food assistance and badger care.

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (20:50)

The candidates are technically nonpartisan, but are each backed by political parties and leaning into some of the thorniest political issues.

White House Correspondent/Kelly O'Donnell (20:58)

I will simply uphold the law, including

Host/Moderator (21:00)

Wisconsin's existing 20 week compromise.

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (21:02)

The judge who wins will serve a 10 year term and could help decide cases on redistricting, abortion and even potential challenges to the 2028 presidential election.

Host/Moderator (21:13)

Everybody, what do you think of my hat?

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (21:15)

This year's race, a far cry from last year's, which became the most expensive state judicial race in history thanks in large part to President Trump's billionaire advisor Elon Musk.

Reporter/Anchor (21:26)

He's trying to buy the election, spending

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (21:28)

more than $15 million and controversially handing out million dollar checks to three Wisconsin voters.

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (21:34)

This is one of those things that

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (21:37)

may not seem that it's going to

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (21:39)

affect the entire destiny of humanity, but

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (21:41)

I think it will.

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (21:42)

The conservative candidate lost,

Republican Strategist/T.W. Origi (21:45)

locking in the

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (21:46)

court's liberal majority for years.

Host/Moderator (21:48)

We need to draw a line in

White House Correspondent/Jasmine Wright (21:50)

the sand and stop the destruction of our courts.

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (21:52)

Now the Republican backed candidate and veteran Judge Maria Lazar is warning that trimming the conservative minority to two this year would have major impacts.

Host/Moderator (22:02)

You need three justices to vote to hear an appeal.

White House Correspondent/Kelly O'Donnell (22:06)

So if we lose the three on the other side, this court's really just one judicial philosophy, one point of view, and that's a dangerous thing for a court.

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (22:16)

But she's being outspent significantly by Democratic backed Judge Chris Taylor, former state lawmaker and political director for Planned Parenthood.

Reporter/Anchor (22:24)

I don't think it's ever been more

Host/Moderator (22:25)

important in my lifetime to have a strong court that's going to stand up for our rights and freedoms stand up for our democracy, our elections, and make

Narrator/Commercial Voice (22:34)

sure that we are resisting this overreach we're seeing from the federal government.

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (22:39)

Voters responding to both messages, even as early voting trailed 20, 25 levels.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (22:44)

I voted for Lazar.

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (22:46)

I've followed up on some of her stuff.

Business Correspondent/Brian Chung (22:47)

It's all public record.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (22:49)

And yeah, she's, I think she's going

Senator Bill Cassidy (22:50)

to do a good job.

White House Correspondent/Kelly O'Donnell (22:51)

Chris Taylor, because she stands for women's rights, and I want to make sure that women's rights are protected in this state.

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (22:57)

Still, outside forces in this midterm election year have been a factor. Taylor earning President Obama's endorsement on the same day his former attorney general, Eric Holder, was campaigning for her in Milwaukee.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (23:09)

We'll learn a lot here that I

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (23:11)

think is going to be useful come November, and that's one of the reasons why I think this race is ultimately so important.

Reporter/Shaquille Brewster (23:17)

A more muted election still expected to offer loud midterm clues. Shaquille Brewster, NBC News, Milwaukee.

Host/Moderator (23:26)

Our thanks to Shaq for that great reporting. Joining me now from Georgia is NBC national correspondent Erin Gilchrist, and chief chief data analyst Steve Kornacki is at the big board. So, Aaron, this did end up as a runoff between a Republican and Democrat, but it's still a heavily Republican district. Right? What are you hearing from voters there?

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (23:46)

Yeah, you're absolutely right. This is a district that has been heavily Republican for a long time. We know President Trump was able to win this district back in 2024 by more than 30 points, more than 35 points. As a matter of fact, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who used to hold the congressional seat for this district, also beat the Democratic contender back then in 2024 by 29 points. And now that Democrat is running again for this seat, Sean Harris, the retired army brigadier general. And he as along with Clay Fuller, the Republican candidate, both of them together have really motivated voters to get out and vote. The ones that we've spoken to today have really stood by their convictions, their concerns about the costs of living right now that are going up again, many of them say. But they're also holding to their convictions about who they believe can address the issues that are of importance to them. I want you to hear from a couple of voters that we've spoken to at this precinct today, which has been pretty busy. Here's what they had to say.

Host/Moderator (24:40)

I'm not that familiar with him and his politics.

International Correspondent/Keir Simmons (24:45)

I mean, I'm just not.

Host/Moderator (24:46)

I know that Trump supports him and that he's the Republican.

International Correspondent/Keir Simmons (24:52)

So that's the way we voted this time.

Senator Bill Cassidy (24:54)

You always vote Republican.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (24:56)

Was there anything in this race that made you think twice?

White House Correspondent/Jasmine Wright (25:01)

No.

White House Correspondent/Kelly O'Donnell (25:02)

Trump endorsed him.

Senator Ron Johnson (25:03)

That's good enough for me.

Host/Moderator (25:04)

I voted for Sean Harris. And what brought me to the polls was I'd been unhappy with Marjorie Taylor Greene and kind of her outspokenness. And so I wanted somebody who was

White House Correspondent/Kelly O'Donnell (25:18)

more focused on the issues for Rose.

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (25:23)

And Sean Harris says that he is focused on rural issues in particular. This part of northwest Georgia is largely a rural area. And so he says, as he's been focused on those things that he believes will bring Republicans over to his side, not to mention Democrats and independents in this area. Clay Fuller has presented himself as a MAGA warrior, said that he will be an America first member of Congress, one who supports President Trump 100% across his policies.

Host/Moderator (25:49)

Monica and that last voter did mention former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene there. But Erin, in all the voters you've been talking to have many of them mentioned her, especially since she's been vocally opposed to the president, specifically on the war against Iran.

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (26:05)

You know, not, not a lot as we've been here today. We were here for the special election last month as well. And we would ask people about Marjorie Taylor Greene. And I have to tell you that she doesn't really seem to be a factor in the minds of a lot of people here, as though they've one moved on from her. But also the people who are supporting the Republican candidates, the 12 of them who were in the field during the special election, the one who was on the ballot today, they have all said that they are still very much supporters of President Trump. And so they have backed the candidates in this race and they've backed a perspective initiative that is obviously different from Marjorie Taylor Greene's, as her support of President Trump, we know, has all but disappeared at this point.

Host/Moderator (26:46)

Monica Erin Gilchrist, thanks so much for your on the ground reporting. Great to have you there. Let's turn to Steve now and let us know what are you watching for tonight in both Georgia and Wisconsin.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (26:57)

Yeah, I mean, let's start there in that Georgia race where Aaron is. So again, you're going from basically the far Atlanta suburbs here, one end of the district, a lot of vote is going to be right down here. This is where the population density is and then stretching all the way up really into the Chattanooga suburbs there on the Tennessee border. But as Aaron said, look, this is Republican territory. How much? So this is what the presidential race looked like in this district in 2024. It was a 37 point victory here for Donald Trump. Now in these special elections We've seen a number of these House special elections since Trump came back to the White House. In all of them, the Democrats have been doing much better than they did in 2024. The average Democratic over performance in special elections to Congress since Trump came back to the White House is 17 points. Meaning if that holds, if the Democrats get their average over performance, that 37 would end up being, well, it would still be a loss for Democrats. It would be down to 20 points. So I think realistically, as you watch the returns come in here tonight in Georgia, Fuller is the prohibitive favorite in this race. This is just such an overwhelmingly Republican district. There is no district in the country even remotely this Republican. The Democrats have succeeded in winning in the last few years. But I think it's sort of like in sports, the point spread, right? I think you'd set this point spread at about 20 points here. If it's lower than that, Democrats are gonna say, hey, look, you know, we can't win here, but you know, we put on a really good performance and it's a bit of a moral victory. If it goes higher than 20, Republicans are gonna be saying, hey, all that talk that Democrats have this big advantage in the midterm, hey, we just, maybe we showed something here. So I think 20 points is kind of the number to keep in mind as you're watching those Georgia returns tonight. Then over to Wisconsin, it's a bit the opposite here. The expectation here is that the Democratic aligned candidate, Chris Taylor is going to win tonight and win comfortably. Why is that? Because in that race, it's not because of how the 2024 presidential race went. Remember Wisconsin, of course, it's a premier swing state. Trump won the state, but it was very close. It was a little bit less than a point in the presidential race. The reason Taylor is favored is because in that report from Shaq, he talked about that Supreme Court race in Wisconsin last year, spring of 2025, high stakes court on the line. Elon Musk, money. Well, the Democrats ended up winning that race. The Democratic aligned candidate won that race by 11 points. And the reason for that was you saw huge, disproportionately high Democratic turnout around Dane County. This is where Madison is. This is just a monster in terms of the number and size of votes that it turns out for Democrats here. But you saw disproportionately high Democratic turnout. You saw those places, those blue collar places near the Mississippi river, some Hispanic areas too, where Trump had done very well and Republicans don't normally do very well. Those areas just did not turn out, did not turn out for Republicans last year. So I think the expectation just based on last year is that the Democrats, because of their energized base in a state like Wisconsin, have a clear advantage here. So again, if you were setting the line like we just said in Georgia, I'd set it around 10 points right here. If it gets inside of 10, Republicans will claim some kind of moral victory. If it goes higher than 10, Democrats are going to say, wow, we really have the energy on our side here.

Host/Moderator (30:07)

Coach Kornacki, we will be watching that spread. Thank you so much. And Steve, we'll have live special coverage of tonight's election results as they start coming in. Kornacki Cam kicks off at 7pm Eastern on nbcnews.com up next, power politics and payback. NBC News speaks to Republican Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, one of the few Senate Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump during his first term as he fights for his political life against a Trump backed primary challenger. You're watching MEET THE Press now.

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Help is always ready before, during and

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after your stay today. We've planned for the plot twists so support is always available because a great trip starts with peace of mind.

Host/Moderator (31:06)

Welcome back. President Trump's grip on the Republican Party will be tested in the coming weeks with a handful of primary races in deep red states, including in Louisiana, where the president has endorsed Congresswoman Julia Letlow in her challenge of incumbent two term Senator Bill Cassidy. Senator Cassidy was one of seven Republicans who voted to convict President Trump of incitement of insurrection during his second impeachment trial in 2021. Speaking at a town hall in Louisiana last week, Senator Cassidy told NBC News he believes he can still win despite the president backing his opponent. Joining me now here on set is Capitol Hill correspondent Melanie Zenona, who spoke with Senator Bill Cassidy at that town hall event. Mel, great to see you in person. So I want to ask you, why is Senator Cassidy feeling like he can survive a primary without the president's endorsement? And what makes him confident he could win?

Reporter/Anchor (32:00)

Yeah, it's a great question. This primary is going to be a test of just how powerful Trump's endorsement still is in the Republican Party. But Cassidy, he's not leaving anything to chance. Both in his stump speech and his wide ranging interview with me, he hugged the president very closely. He said, I have voted with the President 90% of the time. We work well together. And he also interestingly, downplayed that impeachment vote, basically chalking it up to a Disagreement with someone kind of like you have with a spouse is what he said. Let's watch a little bit more of our interview. The impeachment vote today, someone asked you about that. You addressed it head on. You defended that vote. Do you think it's a liability for you in the primary?

Senator Bill Cassidy (32:37)

Well, it might be, but I tell people, hey, you're married. Did ever your spouse do something that you didn't really like and you work through it. Are you focused on the past? Are you focused on the now and the future? I'm focused on the now and the future. If you want somebody delivering for our state to make Louisiana a place where people move to set down roots, raise their children and grandchildren, I'm your guy. If that's what's important to you, vote Bill Cassidy.

Reporter/Anchor (33:06)

You know, something else that was talked about today was mail in ballots. Someone was asking, should I be concerned about this? The president is talking about this as a concern. He just signed an order restricting mail in ballot. Would you still encourage people to utilize that practice? And is it helpful for Trump to be targeting it if you do think it's still something that should be used?

Senator Bill Cassidy (33:23)

A couple things. The state of Montana, I'm told 80% of their ballots are by mail. So there is a kind of a good Republican state, very red state, and 80%, 80% of their ballots are by mail. As a doctor, I know there are people who cannot physically go to a voting booth and you want to make sure they can still vote. But I proudly say of my state that people do not speak of corruption in my state's elections. Now we've put in reforms even though, or maybe because included in we have mail in ballots. There are ways to do this to avoid the corruption. I am a co sponsor of the Save America act, and I do think that you can do that. And for those who cannot go to the voting booth or choose not to, to. For example, the president mailed in his ballot for the recent election. He's leading the free world. It was hard for him to get down there on that day. I still think it's possible to have both.

Reporter/Anchor (34:20)

You've been out campaigning. Gas prices are up right now because of the war in Iran. How much are you finding that voters are concerned about economic concerns and gas prices?

Senator Bill Cassidy (34:30)

Voters are very concerned about economic issues. We've got to speak to affordability. Probably the price of gas prices will continue to be influenced by the war in Iran. I would like to think that we can increase production here in the United States, could mitigate somewhat. There may be strategies to do. So when I speak about health care, you weren't sitting where you weren't seeing the view. I did. But when I started speaking about health care affordability, heads nodded. And when I spoke about trying to bring down the cost of prescription drugs, heads were nodding yes in agreement that that's what we need to do. And when I spoke about how President Trump, Trump, his team had come to my office several weeks ago to collaborate, asking me to help write a bill to further control those costs, again, I think that's well received because we've got to control these health care costs. I'll be making an announcement soon regarding this. I do think there needs to be a Republican plan based around the principles that President Trump has raised. And so I'll be putting something out there soon.

Reporter/Anchor (35:25)

And speaking of health care, Cassidy is also facing headwinds from the Make America Healthy Again movement over his support for vaccines and also over his occasional but very careful criticism, criticism of Secretary Kennedy, who he did ultimately vote to confirm. But some of those tensions could be on full display later this month when Kennedy is actually going to come appear before Cassidy's very committee.

Host/Moderator (35:45)

Fascinating conversation, Mel. So we can say pretty safely, right, that a Republican will win there down in Louisiana, but we are getting reporting that the top Senate GOP super PAC has laid out its midterm plan to keep the Senate and they are going to be spending pretty big in red states in particular.

Reporter/Anchor (36:01)

Right.

Host/Moderator (36:01)

What can you tell us about that plan?

Reporter/Anchor (36:02)

Yeah, this is a massive investment, over $300 million overall that they' planning to spend this fall in their effort to keep the Senate. But what's really interesting to your point is where they are spending, including in several red states, $79 million in Ohio, $71 million in North Carolina, $42 in Maine, even $29 million in Iowa and $15 million in Alaska. So that to me, Monica says Republicans recognize this is going to be a tough environment for Republicans in the fall. And Democrats are certainly reading that way as well. The Senate Majority Fund, which is the Senate Democratic counterpart, put out a statement saying Republicans are and their battleground map has expanded substantially into deep red states. So it's not certain that Republicans are going to be able to keep the Senate this fall, but they're certainly going to invest a lot of money in trying to do so.

Host/Moderator (36:49)

It's going to be so interesting to watch that dynamic and what the Trump endorsement really can mean or won't. Mel Zanona, thank you for bringing us that. And after the break, Vice President Vance hits the campaign trail in Budapest in an unusual show of support for Hungary's hard right prime minister and Trump ally Viktor Orban. We're live in Hungary with that story. Stay with us. I'll meet the press now. Welcome back. President Trump's threat to blow up Iran's civilian civilian infrastructure has some in the Republican Party pushing back while further inflaming tensions in his base over the war. Some conservative pundits, MAGA influencers and former Trump allies say they are outraged. Two notable figures, InfoWars host Alex Jones and former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, are now calling for the president's removal via the 25th Amendment. The pushback among Republicans on Capitol Hill has been much more muted. But here's how Republican Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who is a staunch Trump ally, responded to the president's deadline for Iran.

Senator Ron Johnson (38:02)

I am hoping and praying that President Trump is this really is bluster.

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (38:06)

I do not want to see start

Senator Ron Johnson (38:09)

blowing up civilian infrastructure. I do not want to see that

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (38:13)

we are not at war with the Iranian people. We are trying to liberate them.

Host/Moderator (38:21)

Joining me now is our panel, Jasmine Wright, White House correspondent for notice Antwan Seawright, Democratic strategist and founder and CEO of blueprint strategies and T.W. origi, Republican strategist and vice president at Push Digital Group. Jasmine, some notable comments there. You don't always necessarily see Republicans speak out and talk about it when the president does have such charged and controversial rhetoric. So do we think that the president here, according to Republicans, has gone too far in some of his comments?

White House Correspondent/Jasmine Wright (38:52)

Well, I think that you have to ask the Republicans. But I think if you're coming at it from the White House's viewpoint, I think they're putting some of these detractors in two separate categories. Right. They're putting the folks in who they believe are are consistently going to be negative about everything that the president is doing. And that includes former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who some believe have kind of reached the point of no return when it comes to their relationship with President Trump. And then others like Senator Ron Johnson, who they view coming from more of a principled base, but again, unlikely to really go against the president. So I think they're viewing these two things. And fundamentally, though, when I talk to White House officials, they say that these outside comments are not going to deter the president from doing what he believes is right, which is what he's doing in this scenario.

Host/Moderator (39:43)

Yeah. And when he's asked about it, he says, well, it's to make a point. Right. When he's Asked about the profanity and all of that, but do you think we're approaching true bipartisan outrage? Is that a thing that even happens anymore?

White House Correspondent/Jasmine Wright (39:54)

Well, you have to wait and see. I mean, right now Congress is not in session. Even Democrats haven't come back to D.C. they're talking about redoing a war powers vote, but we know that they basically passed on doing it just a few weeks ago. And so one is going to come down to whether or not they actually get a war powers vote off. Hakeem Jeffrey says they only need about two or three Republicans to come to their side, at least for the house. And then two, it's this question about funding $200 billion that the Pentagon could come to Congress and ask for. That's really going to be, if it happens, where you're holding Republicans feet to the fire to see if they're actually going to rebuke President Trump and follow through on them saying that they want to see what the President's going to do on Iran before they give him more money.

Host/Moderator (40:35)

And that hasn't happened yet. We don't know what the ultimate price tag is. TW yesterday the President did indicate and say that he's not losing maga, his true supporters and polling in the last few weeks has suggested that that is actually true. But we have seen more recent public frustration and outrage from some of those personalities. In particular, I wanna play some of what Tucker Carlson had to say in his podcast yesterday. Listen to this.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (40:59)

Unless somebody puts the brakes on right away, we're gonna wind up in a place that we can't even imagine. Not just Iran, us and the rest of the world. And so that means, cuz this is obvious to anyone who's paying any attention that if you work in the White

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (41:13)

House or in the US Military, now

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (41:14)

it's time to say no, absolutely not, and say it directly to the President. No. Those people who are in direct contact with the President need to say no, I'll resign.

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (41:25)

I'll do whatever I can do legally

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (41:28)

to stop this, because this is insane.

Host/Moderator (41:31)

We should note that the President did respond to Tucker telling the New York Post he's a quote, low IQ person that has absolutely idea what's going on. But what do you make of Tucker's comments and what they say overall about Republican divisions on this war?

Republican Strategist/T.W. Origi (41:46)

Well, first of all, I'm glad that everyone is going at this cautiously, especially when men and women are in harm's way. In our armed forces, we always ought to measure a million times before we ever cut once and Tucker has been on the isolationist wing of the party for a long time, but he has openly mused with Ted Cruz in an earlier interview about nuking Iran. If we ever heard that they were trying to threaten to assassinate the president, which we know that they actually have tried to assassinate President Trump. But to your earlier point, you are correct. 85%, roughly of Republicans support this. But if you dig down into the metrics, it's pretty clear where the dividing line is. It's the duration and it's boots on the ground. And that is where there is bipartisan consensus. No one wants to see boots on the ground. And even at the Easter egg roll, President Trump said, I know that people don't want me to do this, but this was a pay me now or pay me later situation for the president in Iran. It was either going to happen now or it's going to happen in six months. And right now he needs to be clear with the American people, give a roadmap and finish this in a short time frame without boots on the ground, or else Congress is going to get involved.

Host/Moderator (42:54)

Well, he hasn't taken boots on the ground off the table, so that's still a possibility here. We don't know anything about the timeline which has shifted so many different times. So Antoine, react to that and what do you think it means in terms of a reaction from lawmakers if the president does follow through on his threats tonight?

Democratic Strategist/Antwan Seawright (43:11)

Respectfully, I don't think the president or anyone is taking this from a cautious standpoint. We have the commander in Chief, the President of the United States, basically saying he's going to order the US Military to commit war crimes under the Geneva Convention if Iran does not do what he wants them to do. Full stop, unprecedented, should never happen. Republicans in the Congress have refused to do their job providing oversight to the executive branch, which we Democrats and Republicans historically have always done when it comes to government overreach by the executive branch. Secondly, the president knows and everyone else knows that words do matter. His words on social media matter. They've had tremendous economic impact. They're going to have further impact, but they're also going to do what I think he wants to do in this moment and that's continue to harass and jam the news side cycle from the real crisis we're facing at home, including the affordability crisis Republicans have created.

Host/Moderator (44:11)

Well, talk more about that because plenty of Democrats have condemned his language and his social media posts. But do Democrats have any power here? How could they hold him accountable on some of this?

Democratic Strategist/Antwan Seawright (44:20)

Well, the power is in our voice and elevating the seriousness of his words and what they could mean from a long term perspective. There will be life after Donald Trump. There certainly will be life after this Republican majority in November when we take over. However, however, the residue of their words and their actions in this moment could have long term implications for many Americans beyond their time in office. And I think that's what we have to be level headed about in this moment. But Republicans have refused to stand up and hold his words and the president's actions accountable. And I think that's where the disconnect is.

Host/Moderator (44:53)

And depending on what he decides or what happens tonight, we'll see if there's any kind of reaction to that. Jasmine, I want to go back to you on this idea that foreign policy isn't usually an issue that breaks through or resonates as much with voters. We're obviously getting closer and closer to the midterms. We're in the midst of some of these key primary elections. So do you think we are approaching a point in the war against Iran where it is starting to maybe matter more to people? Are people paying more attention given the escalated rhetoric and what could possibly play out here?

White House Correspondent/Jasmine Wright (45:24)

I certainly think people are paying more attention. I think that this is breaking through. But I would say that, yes, foreign policy is not, you know, know, the 1, 2, 3 or 4 or maybe even 5 issue that most Americans vote on when it comes time to go to the ballot box. But affordability is and the question of affordability is now intertwined with foreign policy because of this crisis happening. On the economic, I mean, on the energy front, not just gas prices, obviously, but rising energy prices that people are paying, fertilizer shortages that are happening or that could start happening because those go through the Strait of Hormuz. And so I think that that is all now becoming intertw with this idea of foreign policy. And so it's going to be more and more difficult if this conflict goes on longer and longer to separate out foreign policy with those affordability concerns.

Host/Moderator (46:11)

Tw jump off on that. Is it the economics of this war that likely will matter most to voters? How are Republicans really going to continue to handle that?

Republican Strategist/T.W. Origi (46:20)

Well, to the parents of those who are in harm's way, I think that is the most important thing and the foremost forefront of their mind. And that is always going to be the overriding factor when Americans are in harm's way. Way. But of course, there is an economic component to this. And before we get too far ahead of what's happening right now and There is so much we don't know that's happening behind the scenes. And a lot of the rhetoric Donald Trump is saying, as inappropriate as it may be, is being based off things that we don't know anything about or we know very little about. But we talk about the Strait of Hormuz and all the things that go through it. I think the president would tell you the Strait of Hormuz has never really been open because it's always under threat from a terroristic apocalyptic regime in Iran. And let's not forget it was Hillary Clinton herself who advocated for attacking Iran as far back as.

White House Correspondent/Jasmine Wright (47:09)

But even if that's not made open, still 20% of the oil was going

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (47:13)

through day to day and now it's not agreed.

Republican Strategist/T.W. Origi (47:14)

Agreed. And if they had a nuclear weapon, what would that happen? What would happen? And by many experts, they're saying that was within two weeks to get the energy and within six months to get the actual missile. So there was overriding, overriding effects that the president was weighing and he made a decision.

Host/Moderator (47:32)

We have to leave it right there. There is so much more to discuss when it comes to the straight and everything else. Antoine tw, Jasmine, thank you all so much for your time and for your insights today. We will be right back with more. This is MEET THE PRESS now. Welcome back. As the administration scrambles to define its next moves in the war against Iran, Iran Vice President J.D. vance spent the day in Hungary. He's there to show support for Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Just days ahead of Hungary's national elections, where Orban's party is trailing in most polls. Vance and Orban held a rally in a packed sports arena which started with the vice president calling President Trump and putting him on speakerphone. Take a listen to this.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (48:22)

I'm a big fan of Victor.

Host/Moderator (48:24)

I'm with him all the way.

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (48:25)

The United States is with him all the way.

Host/Moderator (48:27)

And you don't have problems with all of the problems that so many people other other countries have because they let

Political Analyst/Willie Geist (48:32)

their countries be invaded. And you don't have that problem because of Viktor Orban.

Host/Moderator (48:37)

That's the only reason you don't have that problem. Joining me now from Budapest is NBC News senior digital reporter Alexander Smith. Thank you so much for being with us. I know you were there today. You were able to take some of this in in person. So talk to us about the significance of this. The US Vice president openly stumping for a strongman, authoritarian leader.

Senator Ron Johnson (49:02)

Well, yeah. As I've been out here in Budapest, I've been trying to find Other examples of us or indeed any other Western leaders flying out this late in another country's election campaign to campaign for one of the participants. And I can't really find many examples, to be honest. So this really does break with precedent. And we should be really clear about who Viktor Orban is. This is a guy who, who the eu, of which Hungary is a member, says can no longer be considered a full democracy. And they actually classify Orban's Hungary as an elective autocracy. That's after he has curbed the freedom of the judiciary, of the press, stuffed government positions with his allies, and now Transparency International says that Hungary is actually the most corrupt country in Europe. Now, obviously, you hear the very different Message today from J.D. vance. J.D. vance calls Orban one of the one of the sort of most the best statesman in Europe and really criticized the EU in comparison with him. He said that Orban is standing up as a sort of lone defender of Western Christian values. Let's hear a clip.

Political Correspondent/Erin Gilchrist (50:14)

We want you to make a decision about your future with no outside forces pressuring you or telling you what to do. I'm not telling you exactly who to vote for, but what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats and Brussels, those people should not be listened to.

Host/Moderator (50:39)

And building off of that, Alex, Viktor Orban earlier today talked about some of these areas of cooperation with the U.S. what more did he say about that specifically?

Senator Ron Johnson (50:49)

You know, it's a really fascinating part of his speech because he was talking about Orban's energy independence. He hailed his efforts to end the war between Russia and Hungary. Now, it's important to note at this point, of course, that Orban is a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. So clearly he's coming to that from, from a certain angle. But I thought what was most interesting was said actually it's not the economic cooperation, it's the mor cooperation between the United States and Hungary that he really wanted to emphasize. That was the cooperation on values, on Christian values he references so many times today in his speech, in his press conference, talked about family, talked about the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and elsewhere who are trying to derail what he what he sort of characterized as a revolution, really, by patriots the world over, really coming together on these, on these values.

Host/Moderator (51:46)

Fascinating dynamic also, given that the vice president has been a part of some of the negotiations to see what might happen here with the war in Iran. Alex Smith, thank you so much for reporting from Budapest for us tonight. We really appreciate it. Thank you. And we will be back tomorrow with more Meet the Press now. There is much more ahead on NBC News. Now

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