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Meet the Press NOW — July 16
00:49:36
President Trump is set to deliver a primetime address where he is expected to talk about the 2020 election. The Cook Political Report moves eight House races in favor of Democrats with less than fourth months until the November midterms. Rep. Kathy Castsor (D-Fla.) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), co-chars of the Congressional Soccer Caucus, join Meet the Press NOW in the latest installment of NBC’s Common Ground series ahead of the FIFA World Cup Finals.
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- [00:01]
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Welcome to MEET THE press.
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Jane Timm (NBC News Senior Reporter)
Now.
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
I'm Monica Alba in Washington as leaders from both parties brace for a primetime presidential address in just a few hours. With the midterms fast approaching, many of the details of tonight's speech remain a mystery. But but a source familiar with the remarks tells NBC News that the president is expected to focus in part on election security and highlight some of his administration's findings about the 2020 election, which he lost. White House press secretary Caroline Levitt, in her first briefing since returning from maternity leave, was pressed by reporters multiple times today for more details about the speech, which the president has hyped as, quote, really, really big news.
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Julie Sirkin (NBC News White House Correspondent)
It will shock you if you have an honest eye listening to the president tonight. And everything he is saying will be backed by facts and by evidence that will be provided. This evening, the president will be making
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
a very important announcement with respect to the integrity of our elections.
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Julie Sirkin (NBC News White House Correspondent)
However, it is also very possible at the top of the speech he will mention the current situation with Iran and also the economy as well. As you all know, President Trump is a man of his own word and he sometimes is thinking about these things up until he walks out. But we have had conversations about him
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
addressing a range of topics and that could very well be possible tonight.
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Tonight's speech coming as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on congressional Republicans to pass a controversial election overhaul bill ahead of November's midterms Vice President Vance meeting with House Republicans on the Hill yesterday to rally them on the issue.
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
The way you save America is by bringing election integrity. It's something that matters. It's a shame that the Democrats aren't going to help us get this done, given that a majority of Democrat voters and actually want us to have election integrity in this country. But we've got a good piece of legislation to support the troops, support the farmers, and get Save America act passed. This, of course, is the the first step, but it's an important step.
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UnitedHealth Group Narrator
We're going to take it together.
- [03:09]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Some Republicans clearly uneasy with the idea of a primetime presidential address on this issue of election security when polling shows voters are more focused on affordability issues and the fallout from the war against Iran. House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters he has not spoken with the president about tonight's address, while several Senate Republicans voiced their concerns about an address looking back on the 2020 election, look, we can't
- [03:36]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
re prosecute that campaign. Anytime you're looking back, you're not looking ahead. And I'm looking ahead to these elections and the president should as well. I think the more productive conversation would be speaking to the American people with
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Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
an objective plan of how do we actually address your kitchen table issue, how
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
do you pay your bills?
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Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
I mean, my gosh, cost of living. So I try and meet people where
- [03:58]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
they are and I think that's where they are. I think there's a lot of good news that the president can actually talk about.
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
I think that would be constructive or
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
he might want to give us use this time to give us a better view on what he thinks, the outcome
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Leigh Ann Caldwell (Chief Washington Correspondent, Puck News)
or how the way forward is going
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
to be in Iran. I think Americans are curious about that.
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Democrats from both chambers, meanwhile, pre budding the president's address, criticizing him for sowing doubts about the results of the 2020 election that he lost and warning Republicans could be laying the groundwork to interfere in the 2026 midterms. NBC News White House correspondent Julie Sirkin joins me now. Also with me is NBC News chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles, as well as NBC News senior reporter Jane Timm, who covers election administration and policy for us. Thank you all for getting who is actually crafting this speech and who do we know has been actually involved in writing this? Or is this something that, like with most things with this president is really driven by him?
- [05:07]
Julie Sirkin (NBC News White House Correspondent)
Monica, you hit the nail on the head. It is absolutely driven by the president. Caroline Levitt, the press secretary, made that very clear today and she said what we had been reporting that the President plans to unveil some new findings. She said those findings will shock us all. When asked by our own Garrett Hague and pressed really why the president continues to put this issue so front and center, as you heard there from Democrats and Republicans saying that they wish the president just focus on the economy instead. She essentially said that you have to stay tuned because the president had not yet declassified those intelligence documents that she says that a person familiar with the speech tonight say that will show new findings of potential election irregularities, irregularities dating back to the 2020 election that we know don't exist at this point. Caroline Levitt saying there that the President had been working with Bill Pulte, who has been in an acting position as the head of the intelligence agency and as well as others potentially involved with this. I'm thinking of Ratcliffe, who is the head of the CIA, Cash Patel as well, who's the head of the FBI. There was some reporting, Monica, earlier this week that those individuals may be in the room with the President. I had asked the White House about that. And while they are not confirming, they are also not denying. So that gives you a picture of what we could potentially see surrounding the President today night as he certainly makes this a focus of his remarks. Although Levitt did say today as well, the press secretary, that he could just freestyle talking on top about Iran, about the economy and other matters as well.
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Yeah, we're just going to have to wait to see that in real time. Julie, you mentioned Bill Pulte. Let's drill down on that a little bit because he has been the acting Director of National Intelligence for nearly a month now. So what do we know about what he has been doing in that role over these last four weeks and whether any of his work might be featured or part of of tonight's remarks?
- [06:48]
Julie Sirkin (NBC News White House Correspondent)
Monica, I think the fact that the President is holding this speech tonight shows us why he wanted Pulte, who is a housing executive, has no experience in the intelligence space, why he wanted him around to lead this agency when he has someone like Jay Clayton that has bipartisan support, at least at this juncture, to be confirmed as the head of that agency after Tulsi Gabbard left. And now we know it is because, as the President had instructed Pulte to do over the last several weeks, which is to look into declassifying, identifying some of this information surrounding the 2020 election. Also, we know that Pulte was part of a task force that was set up in the White House several weeks ago to really try and drill down on this issue. And it dates far further than that. We remember when Gabbard, Tulsi Gabbard, who of course was the former dni, she traveled to places like Georgia, to places like Puerto Rico to try and dig into some of these issues. And Democrats are really worried about what this means means. In fact, some of the Democrats, as you'll talk to Ryan about, are saying that this points to Trump looking ahead to the 2026 election, not so much the 2020 election.
- [07:47]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Monica and Julie, before I let you go, I have to ask you about the story that everybody is seemingly talking about. The fact that the President's longtime teleprompter operator is now being investigated for allegedly making more than $90,000 by betting on his speeches. Who is this prompter operator? Gabriel Perez. And what do we know about the investigation, investigation as it stands?
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Julie Sirkin (NBC News White House Correspondent)
Yeah, we actually managed to dig up some photos. We think it's him. But he's so behind the scenes. He's been operating the teleprompter for the president dating back to 2016 by his side as somebody that of course is behind the camera. But in this case, Kalshee, the betting markets platform reported him up to the CFTC because they noticed some unusual profits that he was making, close to $100,000. As you mentioned, the CFTC now investigating him. Caroline Levitt today said the president was disturbed by the allegations and she said that he is on unpaid administrative leave. Whether that means he's out of the White House for good remains to be seen, but I don't think we'll be seeing him tonight.
- [08:41]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Monica, Julie, thank you for that. Ryan, I do want to turn to you specifically. Of course, you cover Capitol Hill every day and understand this dynamic so well. So Republicans and especially those who are on the ballot this November, what are they looking for or not looking for from the President?
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Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
I can confidently say that if you're a Republican in a state that could be 50, 50 that's competitive in the Senate side or a House district that is potentially in an area that could go one way or the other, you just hope the President cancels the speech tonight. It's the last thing you want him to be talking about. If you are a die hard Republican in a ruby red district, you know, bring it on. The more you talk about election integrity or question the results of the 2020 election, the better that feeds the President's base. But time and time again, when you talk to these Republicans, the ones that are clear eyed about the 2026 midterms, they do not want to re litigate what happened in 2020. They want to talk about moving forward. They want to talk about gas prices, they want to talk about energy policy, they want to talk about these kitchen table issues, the price of eggs. And the more you talk about election fraud, a, it's going to make your supporters who believe it not show up to the polls, and B, it takes away from this overall message that Republicans think that they have the up talk
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
a little bit more about that. Because if Republicans do want to talk about affordability, I mean, inflation is still high, gas prices are going up, there are still these tensions with Iran. So is affordability actually a winning issue for the GOP right now?
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Taryn Rosenkrantz (Founder and CEO, New Blue Interactive)
They feel that.
- [10:16]
Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
So some Republicans believe that you can make that argument, that the way the President is going about this, the different policies that they've instilled, they point to different aspects of the great big beautiful bill that provided tax cuts or extended tax cuts in some regards that, that if you can single out some of these individual issues, you can point to examples of why the White House has made life easier for Americans or even make the argument that ultimately the war in Iran will lead to lower prices down the road. It's not an easy argument to make, but it's a much safer playing ground to be having this conversation on than these fanciful claims about election fraud that in many respects don't change the outcome of an election, but could serve to suppress the very voters that you need to get to the polls.
- [11:00]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
And we mentioned that the vice President was trying to rally support around the SAVE act or the Save America act through potentially this reconciliation package. Can you just walk us through whether that is even realistic or where that may go from here?
- [11:13]
Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
There's no one more frustrated by this conversation than the Senate Majority Leader, John Thune, whose responsibility it would be to shepherd this legislation through the Senate. Listen to how he talked about it this week, about how difficult it would be to get this over the finish line. I have to be the, I have
- [11:29]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
to be the realist. And so I'm not, like I said, I'm not poo pooing it. But I'm just saying people need to think long and hard about what it entails when you put something like that, both through the, you know, the budget resolution and a reconciliation bill, you know, which again in the House is a simple majority exercise without the restrictions of the Byrd rule.
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Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
So people that aren't versed in Senate parliamentary procedure, at the risk of glazing your eyes over what Republicans want to do is pass this with only 51 votes. In order to do that, it has to be something that's directly tied to the budget, so it has to involve some level of spending. So what Republicans are proposing is maybe incentivizing states to implement some of these, these provisions within the Save America Act. That wouldn't be the wide open, you know, wholesale changes that the White House is looking for. So it's kind of a way to paper it over, maybe make the hardcore Republicans feel better about it. But it's not the solution that Donald Trump really wants. And I think, at the end of the day, could just make things a little bit more difficult for the White House as they pitch this across the
- [12:34]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
country and not something likely that would apply to these midterms.
- [12:37]
Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
Even if, even if they passed, if they passed the Save America act completely today without any of these things attached to it, it would get litigated in court almost immediately and practically would not be able to be implemented by the fall election.
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Really important context. Ryan Nobles, thank you. And Jane, Tim, I want to turn to you for more context. You cover this stuff really every single day. And I just want you to give us a reality check from your perch. How safe are US Elections right now?
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Jane Timm (NBC News Senior Reporter)
Monica? The reality is that American elections are safe. Voter fraud occurs very rarely, usually in isolated circumstances. And a big part of that is that America's election system is very local. It is run by thousands of jurisdictions around the country. So to actually steal an election, sway an election and compromise it, you would need an army of people on the ground, often in positions of power across the country, to do this. This is something that would be detected if it was attempted or there was anything more than influence. We know that foreign countries try and influence American elections, but we know that they have not been able to intervene to change the results, change the outcome of an election. That's what the broad conclusion of the American intelligence community has been since 2021 when they put out a report and said, this is what happened in 2020.
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
I think that's really important to focus on. So just explain the distinction between other countries trying to influence which is thing or intervene in our elections.
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Jane Timm (NBC News Senior Reporter)
Yeah, so the influence campaigns is things like what Russia did in 2016, trying to go after President Trump. But there's a difference between influencing, casting doubt on American election systems. That's something that we know foreign countries have tried to do, but there's a difference between that and actually changing the outcome of election. Changing ballots, changing voter rolls. We know that that has not occurred according to the American intelligence Community. There's a big between sort of casting, you know, going after Joe Biden in politics and actually changing the results.
- [14:47]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Okay. And let's say even if a foreign actor is able to intervene in our elections, how difficult would it be to sway the outcome?
- [14:55]
Julie Sirkin (NBC News White House Correspondent)
Yeah.
- [14:56]
Jane Timm (NBC News Senior Reporter)
You know, America's elections are run on paper ballots. So there's really important is that you can always go back and check. There's a couple of states that, that do use digital ballots. So there are ways to look into those and audit them. There's lots of audits. There's lots of recounts in this country. And I think what's important is that despite all the things that President Trump has said and cast doubt on the 2020 election outcome, he actually chose not to pay for audits in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan. In 2020, he could have he qualified for a recount in those places and chose not to pursue one. They would have cost him about $10 million.
- [15:33]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
$10 million. That is really important to recall, Jane. Tim, thank you for staying across it all. We know you'll be busy tonight. And as we mentioned, White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt saying today that the president's remarks tonight could touch on the ongoing war with Iran. It comes against the backdrop of a very hot war with the Pentagon launching strikes again Today for the sixth consecutive day, Iran's foreign minister accusing the U.S. of committing, quote, numerous war crimes, alleging that it targeted civilian facilities and infrastructure. While President Trump has threatened to go after Iran's bridges and power plants as soon as next week. The Pentagon says that the latest strikes were aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities. Meanwhile, President Trump announced yesterday that Iran allowed a US Citizen who was wrongfully detained to leave the country, calling it a gesture of goodwill. Joining me now to talk about all of this is NBC News chief international correspondent Kier Simmons. Kier, you did hear Caroline Levitt today say that the US and the White House believe that Iran's still wants to make a deal. Is that what you're hearing from your sources in the region?
- [16:44]
Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
Yeah. I mean, Iran does want to make a deal, but it wants to make its deal. So, for example, this week we heard a statement from Iran's lead negotiator, Mohamed Gallab, in which he told the Iranian people not to fear war or negotiations and then said, but negotiations do not mean compromise. And he was telling the Iranian people, don't worry about negotiating, don't feel like we're going to back down just because we're negotiating. Now, I think the release of that US Citizen is another potential olive branch. But again, the Iranians are prepared to sit around the table. The big question now is what result is they're going to be. Because the reason why we are now into another night of strikes on Iran on the other side of the sea where we are here and the reason why the Straits of Hormuz is closed and I think could get a ship from here to the Straits of Hormuz here in Doha. Of course, you wouldn't want to do that right now. The reason why all of that is the case is because these two sides can't even agree on what they agreed to last time they negotiated and came up with that memorandum of understanding. And so I think ultimately one of the questions, and maybe we'll hear something from the president tonight, is what exactly is the aim? What is President Trump trying to do? Because people will feel like they're experiencing Groundhog Day when they hear things like we're going to put pressure on the Iranians until they capitulate, when that's what was tried. And up until now, frankly, that hasn't worked. They have got to a deal, a memorandum of understanding. They have achieved that. But now a war that began over the question of Iran's nuclear program and things like trying to step in to help the Iranian people is now a conflict that is simply focused for now, at least initially on how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before that war began.
- [18:41]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Right. We have really seen that pattern continue to emerge here. But as the US And Iran do continue to exchange fire, as we've been talking about, are there concerns now that other Iranian backed proxies could get involved? For example, the Houthis in Yemen, who said seem to be a factor?
- [18:58]
Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
It's a good question. Certainly that's what's being threatened by the most strident Iranian voices. And there has been rising tension in Yemen with the Houthis. And people may remember back when the Houthis were flying on ships around the Red Sea and the Bab El Mandeb, and that's another different crucial shipping lane. Can that happen again? Can that be reignited? Saudi Arabia has been attempting to control that situation. But there have been signs that more recently that's not being, that's not necessarily working. Certainly it does look as if some factions in Iran are trying to reinstate that connection. And the reason why they're going to be threatening that is because while the US Is trying to put pressure on Iran, Iran is trying to put pressure on the US Primarily through the world economy.
- [19:53]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Keir Simmons reporting from Doha. Thank you so much, Kier. And coming up, the main stage. Democrats gear up for a potentially wild night in the race to replace Graham Platner, with eight declared candidates set to hit the debate stage tonight as the party's fight over immigration and ICE tactics surges into the spotlight. Plus, back in Washington, Democratic Party divisions are on full display after more than 100 House Democrats, including members of leadership, vote to end U.S. aid to Israel. You're watching Meet the Press.
- [20:25]
Julie Sirkin (NBC News White House Correspondent)
Now,
- [20:33]
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- [22:05]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Welcome back. Turning now to the administration's immigration crackdown in the wake of two fatal shootings by ICE officers within a week of each other in Texas and Maine. The issue is set to take center stage at tonight's Democratic Senate debate in Maine as eight declared candidates make their case to replace Graham Platner. The debate will be split into two separate hours and feature all the active candidates who declared their intention to run as of this Tuesday. Several of the candidates have been spending this week attending vigils and protests in the wake of the fatal ICE shooting of a Colombian man in Biddeford, Maine on Monday. With the candidates vowing to take on ICE if elected, we have to remain vigilant.
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
We have to stand up. We have to push back. We have to protect each other so that no more of these things happen. It is time to abolish this broken agency. It is time to fire the leadership that has let it run wild. ICE is broken.
- [23:01]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
ICE is broken. They're thugs. That agency is broken.
- [23:06]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
And we need to go back to
- [23:08]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
a time where the rule of law
- [23:13]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
united all of us.
- [23:15]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Meanwhile, the administration is defending its actions after pausing and then abruptly unpauseing vehicle stops by ICE officers after the president said that the practice needs to continue. Joining me now is senior Homeland Security correspondent Julia Ainslie. Julia, what more are we learning about what the White House knew about Secretary Mullen's plans to pause those traffic stops?
- [23:41]
Julia Ainslie (Senior Homeland Security Correspondent)
Well, Monica, from what it sounds like now, it sounds like they didn't know much. At least that's what Tom Homan and Caroline Levitt have alluded to today. It came as a bit of a surprise to DHS when the White House decided to end that policy, that very temporary pause in vehicle stops. But apparently it also came as just as much of a surprise to the White House when Secretary Mullen put that pause in place early Tuesday morning. And so it's really been this back and forth, starting with a call from Maine Senator Susan Collins to say maybe there should be a pause. And as I understood it from iceources and DHS leadership, they thought this would be a temporary pause to make sure everyone was trained properly on vehicle stops before they went out again because of these two fatal shootings that happened during vehicle stops in the past week. But I want you to take a listen to what Tom Homan said when he talks about Secretary Mullen and he's throwing them under the bus a bit here.
- [24:33]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Take a listen.
- [24:35]
Tom Homan (Former ICE Official)
Vehicle stops, our main tool for us to our job.
- [24:38]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
And we got to continue that. I think it was blown out proportional. But I don't think Mark Wayne Mullen
- [24:43]
Tom Homan (Former ICE Official)
ever intended people to think we're doing
- [24:45]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
away with the policy. He wanted to do a short term policy just to make sure that the agents out there on these operations have the vehicle stop training and do they have the tools necessary to keep safe.
- [25:01]
Julia Ainslie (Senior Homeland Security Correspondent)
So what I can tell you here is we're seeing two very competing pressures. One is the pressure to try to boost arrests. These agents have been told since the end of June they're supposed to be arresting 2,000 immigrants per day. And it's been very hard to get to those numbers without making these vehicle stops. But on the other side, they're dealing with two fatal shootings. And Marquin Mullen, when he stepped into this job, was given the command to try to keep ICE out of the headlines for a while, given what happened under Secretary Noem's leadership and everything that happened with fatal shootings in Minneapolis earlier this year. So they have these competing factors going on now. And it looks like for now, vehicle stops are back on, and we'll have to see how this plays out.
- [25:36]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Yeah, Julie, I mean, everything you're saying suggests that there is some disagreement within the administration. So what do you make of that? What should we take away from that?
- [25:45]
Julia Ainslie (Senior Homeland Security Correspondent)
Well, of course, Monica, you know, you speak to people at the White House. I'm speaking to people at dhs. But I know people at DHS just wanted to pause because they brought in so many people in such a short amount of time after the one big, beautiful, beautiful bill passed last summer, they were giving out those $50,000 bonuses. They had to hire 10,000 people in just a short amount of time. They wanted to make sure everyone was properly trained because in training, they're never supposed to fire at a vehicle unless a vehicle is actually driving toward them and it's being used as a weapon that could threaten their lives. And so from the video that you see in Maine, that man is clearly on the side of the car trying to open the driver's side door. And so it seemed like a rational time to take a pause and make sure that they had gone through with that training. But that wasn't what the White House wanted to hear. So it seems that there was a breakdown in communication where Secretary Mullen did not message that to the White House ahead of time, and then the White House didn't message to dhs. And so it looks like for now, Mullen is digging out of this a bit, but he has backed the president and said that they do need every tool available in order to arrest people and that people shouldn't think that there's any way to evade arrest or deportation if they're in the country illegally. However, as we're seeing just now in this hour, I will say the man who was killed in Biddeford, Maine, Johan Sebastian Guerra, his family is speaking now, and his lawyer has said that he was in the country legally and he had work authorization and that this death should have never happened.
- [27:16]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Julia Ainslie, thank you so much for that reporting. And we will keep an eye on on that press conference. Thank you so much. And up next, the battle for control of Congress. A top elections forecaster says several key House races are moving further into Democrats corner, but warns so much can change between now and election night. Keep it right here on Meet the Press.
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Erin Covey (Editor, Cook Political Report)
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Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
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Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
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- [28:49]
Ozempic Advertisement Voice
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
getting WI fi from Xfinity?
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Julia Ainslie (Senior Homeland Security Correspondent)
Yeah.
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Ozempic Advertisement Voice
I ordered it this morning, was online
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
in minutes, then they showed up.
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Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
So they just came over to use
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
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Julia Ainslie (Senior Homeland Security Correspondent)
Imagine that restrictions apply.
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Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
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- [29:19]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
welcome back. It's less than four months until the midterm elections and according to forecasters, Democrats have the momentum in the fight for House control. The Cook Political Report is now shifting six more races in Democrats direction. Two likely Democrat contests are now rated at solid Democrat and two lean Democrat races are now rated as likely Democrat. On the Republican side, The race for Texas 15 moved from likely Republican to lean Republican, meaning that Cook now considers that a competitive race for Democrats. And joining me now to talk about all of that is Erin Covey, who is an editor the Cook Political Report who focuses on the House of Representatives. Erin, thank you so much for being here. So walk us through these moves and why Cook feels that that is shifting right now in the Democrats direction. Potentially, yeah.
- [30:10]
N
Look, we're still four months out from the midterm, so we don't know exactly what the battle for control of the House is going to look like. But as we get closer to November, we have more information. We have a lot of polling from both parties. We have ad reservations, fundraising totals. We know who the candidates will be in a lot of places since the primaries have finished. And so these ratings reflect developments in these individuals races. Of course, they obviously altogether reflect a political environment that favors Democrats. We also put out our initial range of potential outcomes for the House today, which shows that, you know, in most scenarios, Democrats would control the House, but Republicans do have a path to holding it as well.
- [30:52]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
And let's talk specifically about this race in Texas between incumbent Republican Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz and this Tejano singer, Bobby Polito. Some of his past tweets have now emerged and they include homophobic and racist slurs. So how much of an uphill battle is he facing currently in this race?
- [31:10]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
It's a good question.
- [31:11]
N
So this is a seat that Trump carried by 18 points in 2024. So under normal circumstances, it's not a seat that we would generally consider competitive. But this is a seat that's in South Texas, has a large majority Hispanic population. And we've seen Hispanic voters have really reverted against Trump after moving towards him in 2024. At the same time, Democrats recruited Polito, who is a minor celebrity in the Valley in Texas. So he comes in better known than the congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, whose district also changed as a result of redistricting. However, as you said before, Republicans have a lot of oppo that they can throw at Polito from his past tweets and his association with the convicted sex offender. And so, so the ads are going to be flying. But if we look at the initial polling and the initial fundraising, this looks like quite a close race. So I think the question is, is this Bobby Polito's peak? Will Republicans be able to redefine him? But right now, he starts out in a pretty strong position for a district this red.
- [32:12]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
And zooming out, what would you say are the kind of current paths potentially to victory for both sides? Who has the overall advantage right now at this point, still four months out?
- [32:25]
N
So we believe that Democrats have the overall advantage, but Republicans do have a path. If you look at our race ratings as they are right now, if Republicans won half of the toss ups, they would still hold the House with roughly the same number of seats that they have right now. So they certainly do have a path. However, typically in a midterm cycle, we would see the party that's out of power in the White House. So Democrats in this case, they typically win those toss up, most of those toss up races. And, you know, as we get closer to November, that toss up list will probably change. So it's certainly not set in stone.
- [32:56]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Yeah, I want to ask you a little bit about that because how many more shifts do you think we should expect to see when it comes to these ratings? A couple more? Or can they be really updated all the way pretty close to November based on what you're talking about, the ad spending and some of these other interesting factors?
- [33:12]
N
You know, it varies a lot cycle by cycle. And it's not like we have a very set in stone schedule for those race ratings changes. It's very responsive to the developments that we're seeing in these races. But, you know, in 2018, we were making a lot of race ratings changes in the final couple of months of the race. You can go on our website and see the amount of races that shifted between at this point in 2018 and November. So certainly things could change. But, you know, we've seen nationally the generic ballot average looks good for Democrats, but not quite as good as it did in 2018. It slipped over the last month. And so, you know, we don't exactly know that it's going to be that good of an environment as it was at that cycle.
- [33:49]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Still so much to watch. And we know you'll be watching it very closely. Erin Covey, thank you for being here. We appreciate your time. And up ahead, Democratic divisions on Israel, a primetime presidential address and the face of controversy on a gold coin. The panel is coming right up. Keep it here on MEET THE PRESS now. Welcome back. A critical divide within the Democratic Party in the spotlight now on Capitol Hill after nearly half of House Democrats voted yesterday to cut off military aid to Israel, a major shift in support for the US Ally. While the amendment introduced by Republican Congressman Thomas Massie did not pass, it did reveal a rare divide among House Democratic leadership. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, along with the caucus chair, vice chair and the chair of the party's campaign arm, all voted against cutting aid, while the Democratic whip, the former speaker and the assistant minority leader voted for cutting military aid. It comes as the party is reckoning over how it views the US alliance with Israel and is seeing that fight play out in key races, including the upcoming Senate primary in Michigan. Joining me now is Today's panel, Leanne Caldwell, chief Washington correspondent for Puck News Taryn Rosenkrantz, founder and CEO of New Blue Interactive, and TW Orig Arrighi, vice president of Push Digital Group. Thank you all for being here today to have this conversation. Leigh Ann, I do want to start on that divide that we just discussed within the Democratic Party on this issue of military aid to Israel. It doesn't even seem like party leaders can agree on getting on the same page there. So what could that mean for them?
- [35:40]
Taryn Rosenkrantz (Founder and CEO, New Blue Interactive)
No, they can't agree. And this is only going to become an issue that is more and more challenging as time goes on. Right now, most of this divide is happening in the Democratic primaries, especially in blue districts. But what it means is that the fact that so many of these Democrats voted to cut off funding for Israel means that there is a growing sentiment in the party where this is increasingly important. And it could be a real issue for Hakeem Jeffries if Democrats take control of the majority after November. He is on a different side of most of the Democratic base, and it could be hard for him to unify the party over this.
- [36:21]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Right. If that happens, how do you think he can do that? How could he wrangle these two sides to get to a place where they could potentially accomplish anything? If Democrats take back the House, we'll have to see.
- [36:30]
Taryn Rosenkrantz (Founder and CEO, New Blue Interactive)
I mean, every member has their own constituency and their own concerns. Hakeem Jeffries comes from a district with a large number of Jewish voters. I am told that this is an issue, this is personal conviction as well. Catherine Clark was on the other side of it, the number two Democrat. She also has a primary in a few weeks which could have played into that as well. So there's a lot of political considerations, but it's this is not going away, definitely.
- [36:56]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
And let's look at the polling on this, because, Taryn, there's a new poll just from the Washington Post out that shows 40% of Democrats think the US should end military aid to Israel, and 34% say it should be reduced. So is the party in line with their base on this issue?
- [37:12]
Erin Covey (Editor, Cook Political Report)
I think right now, I really do think right now the party is all over the place on this, and that's okay. I think you're seeing primary season happen and you're seeing a lot of people who lost. And I think that's causing a little bit of a ripple effect to people who are trying to win and trying to figure out what their constituents want. People are trying to be representative, what the views are, and they're seeing polls like this, they're feeling the electoral ramifications of people who maybe weren't on the same page as some of their constituents. And this is going to continue to play out. I think what's interesting and what will really be if we do have a speaker and if we do take back the House, is that this is going to be a priority, but it is not as much of a priority as affordability. Some of the stuff of stopping Trump and what he's doing and bringing it back to this, this is a kind of a division right now, but it's not something that we can't unify to really stop Trump. And I think that's what everyone's overarching primary objective is at this point.
- [38:04]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
And tw do you think this is something Republicans can seize on effectively, this divide within the party?
- [38:09]
Tom Homan (Former ICE Official)
I think as was just touched on here, I think this is really, in my estimation, crass political calculation at a time when it threatens, in my opinion, to tear the Democratic Party asunder. You've already seen John Fetterman say he might leave the party if this goes down this road, because there are real ramifications. Should we actually go forward and remove military aid for Israel? There will literally be Israeli deaths if we just cut that funding off. It has real ramifications. And from my perspective, it just screams ignorance from people who know better. And yes, it's a show vote. It overwhelmingly passed. But you're feeding a fire that is very dangerous and could lead to further death and devastation in an area of the world that we can't afford it, especially to our closest ally, only functioning democracy, and the only country in the region that even claims to have Jewish people in it. Look, you can disagree with the Netanyahu government all you want. That's healthy. It's right. There are plenty of criticisms to be had, but this is a step far too far. And I think the Democrats are playing with fire in a real way on
- [39:17]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
the Senator Fetterman of it all. Leigh Ann, he did call this a red line. Do you think this would push him to leave the party? You think he would?
- [39:24]
Taryn Rosenkrantz (Founder and CEO, New Blue Interactive)
I mean, this is the, this is the strongest he has been. He has denied rumors over and over again that he has any intention of leaving the party. And so that was quite an eye catching statement. And I think that Senator Schumer and Democratic leaders in the Senate are going to try to rein him in.
- [39:43]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Let's talk a little bit about the president's expected speech tonight. Before we get to that, though, I do want to Play some of what the President told Kristen Welker, moderator of Meet the Press during their interview just last month.
- [39:56]
Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
You know that these elections are rigged. Your network knows that they're rigged. You know that I won an election in a landslide And I got 94% bad press. But Mr. President, you know why I got that? Because you have no credibility.
- [40:12]
Leigh Ann Caldwell (Chief Washington Correspondent, Puck News)
But you've never presented evidence that it was rigged.
- [40:14]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
Let's keep talking about, I want to
- [40:15]
Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
talk about Todd, you have more evidence, there's more evidence than ever presented. Let's talk your elections in this country, we're like a third world country. So your elections are crooked and you're crooked and Meet the Press is crooked and so is ABC and CBS and CNN one sided crooked network. So let's call it quits because I've had enough. Thank you, darling. Have a good time.
- [40:41]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Okay, so from that it's obvious the President does seem to be a little bit fixated on this issue. TW Is that what Republicans want him to be talking about right now?
- [40:50]
Tom Homan (Former ICE Official)
No, not look, there's plenty of things to talk about. Obviously we want to talk about affordability. We want to tout the wins we have, the things that we want to do. I think there is a way to talk about upholding the state sanctity of the ballot in the voting booth. I think there's plenty of things that unite Americans on voter ID and things like that. Look, I think we should just say it plainly. The Steele dossier and Russian influence did not happen in 2016. Donald Trump won fair and square and Biden won here. If he has evidence as he might present tonight, I think everybody in America would love to see it. I'd love to review it. I think people in Congress would love to see it. But that remains to be seen right now. The evidence that came out after the 2020 election, I hope my old boss Lindsey Graham review a lot of was not good. And so if he has some that was hidden from him, I think we'd all love to see it and I look forward to seeing what he has to say.
- [41:41]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Taran in a lot of this it appears could be focused on elections past. But how much of this might be about what Democrats are charging the President with here, which is sowing doubt in the upcoming elections?
- [41:53]
Erin Covey (Editor, Cook Political Report)
Right. I know it's a big concern. I mean what's really crazy to me is that he is going on television with so many things happening in this country and not talking about any of them. He instead talking about an election he lost. You know, at this point, six years ago. And that is just something that is not going to resonate with the people if they presented evidence after this. It's just this. I don't know how much he can continue to put seeds about in the elections and in the integrity of elections. But people already feel that one way or another on both sides he's right or wrong. And I don't think anything he's going to say changes that. Instead, he's not talking about war. He's not talking about how much it when we go get gas. He's not talking about how much it is at the grocery store. And that's a problem for him. So I think he's only making this worse for the elections in November for himself. And I think hopefully that's something that Democrats can seize on.
- [42:38]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Liam, what are your sources telling you about what this speech could mean, what they're reaching for and what could be problematic if president does go and say potentially providing evidence here?
- [42:47]
Taryn Rosenkrantz (Founder and CEO, New Blue Interactive)
I spent a good time but the amount of time stay on the Hill asking Republicans what they want to hear the president talk about tonight. I got arranged. Oh, he's speaking. I had no idea to I'm not going to tell the president what to say people wanted to avoid. But you know, this few honest Republicans like Brian Fitzpatrick, one of the three House members who is in a Kamala Harris one district. He said not about 2020. He said he would like him to talk about the housing bill that just passed, but he can't do that. Yeah. And then or the war to lay out why the war is necessary and what it will cost. So there's a lot of anxiety among
- [43:22]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Republicans which we'll be talking about tomorrow for sure. We'll continue the conversation then. Leigh Ann, Taryn and TW, thank you so much for being here. And up next, common goals ahead of Sunday's hotly anticipated World cup final between Spain and Argentina. I spoke with two bipartisan co chairs of the Congressional Soccer Caucus on the success of the game so far and the greatest moments. The latest installment of our Common Ground series kicks off next on MEET THE press.
- [43:51]
Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
Now.
- [44:04]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Welcome back. The White House confirmed today that President Trump will attend Sunday's World cup final, which we now know will feature a face off between Spain and Argentina to end what has been a historic tournament. Soccer fans from all over the world have taken over parts of the United States, Mexico and Canada, experiencing North American culture to the fullest. The game's also kick starting a conversation about our shared national identity, a welcome break from our otherwise divisive politics as we count down to the final, I spoke with two of the co chairs of the Congressional Soccer Caucus, Democrat Kathy Castor of Florida and Republican Darren LaHood of Illinois for the latest installment of NBC's Common Ground series.
- [44:45]
TW Orig Arrighi (Vice President, Push Digital Group)
I think what we've seen with our Congressional Soccer Caucus and Kathy and I, are a reflection of that, of sport soccer, bringing Republicans and Democrats together. You know, we worked almost seven, eight years ago on getting the bid for the United States. And so we worked collectively with both sides of the aisle to make sure we were best positioned to get the World Cup. And it's amazing that we're in the middle of the World cup right now. And so our work on the soccer caucus, that isn't a Republican or Democrat issue, it's really an American issue. And we're seeing that play out with the largest sporting event in the history of the world. All metrics, a real success so far.
- [45:19]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Congresswoman, tell me a little bit more about the Congressional Soccer Caucus and your relationship to the sport.
- [45:24]
Leigh Ann Caldwell (Chief Washington Correspondent, Puck News)
Well, I like to think of myself as representing soccer moms, soccer parents everywhere. My daughter played soccer from kitty kickers at the YMCA up through club sports in high school. And I'm a reflection of parents and grandparents all across the Congress, all across the country who understand the power of athletics and sports to bring folks together for young people to learn skills, social skills, for unity, things that bring us together in a world that seems like there's so many tensions trying to pull us apart right now. And the bipartisan Soccer Caucus in Congress right now reflects the spirit all across America. They have embraced this World Cup. They loved watching the advancement of the but teams from every part of the world here in North America competing. It's just been a wonderful, wonderful event.
- [46:19]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
And Congressman, what do you make of this tournament so far and the way the US has served as a co host?
- [46:25]
TW Orig Arrighi (Vice President, Push Digital Group)
Well, I think there was a lot of concern going before the tournament started, but I got to tell you, since the tournament started, it has been an extraordinary success in terms of people coming to America and us being so welcoming along with Mexico and Canada, of course. It's the first World cup where three countries have hosted. It's the first time the World cup has expanded from 32 to 48 teams and we're through almost 100 matches now. And I think everybody has seen stadiums completely sold out, people embracing America. And obviously the competition on the field has been tremendous. The games have been so exciting, so energetic. And I think it just reflects well on the the work that we put in to help make it what it is. Last year, Kathy and I worked on $650 million appropriations to the 11 host cities. We worked on $525 million for anti drone technology that went into the 11 host cities in the U.S. we also worked on a visa that helped people come here. The FIFA visa waiver program we worked with the Trump administration on. So, again, these were all bipartisan issues, working with the administration and us here in Congress to make it the success it's been so far.
- [47:31]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
And Congresswoman, it does seem like there are so many examples of tourists from around the world who have had overwhelmingly positive experiences here. What do you attribute that to?
- [47:43]
Leigh Ann Caldwell (Chief Washington Correspondent, Puck News)
They really came here to have fun and cheer on their teams. And as Darren mentioned, there's a lot of hard work that has made that possible. As each match unfolded, with the drama of country versus country, with the fans in the stands, they could be confident that it was going to be a safe atmosphere, it was going to be fun. And I loved watching all the American communities embrace the international teams and all the visitors. Boy, the Scots really captured the imagination from Boston to Miami, watching really all Cape Verde was base camp in my hometown of Tampa. And who knew that that would be one of the exciting stories? There's always rooting for the underdog, too. Something in the American spirit is always rooting for that underdog. And that was a special part of the World cup this year.
- [48:37]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Are you comfortable with the role that President Trump ended up playing in the Flo Baligon red card situation? Calling Gianni Infantino a FIFA and asking him to review the suspension?
- [48:51]
Leigh Ann Caldwell (Chief Washington Correspondent, Puck News)
I thought that was a little bit heavy handed. I understood that U.S. soccer was already making that request to look at the rule. But the American team really captured the imagination of this country. And that's one of the lasting legacies I think we'll see. It won't be that. It won't be the politicians that are involved. It will be the young person, boy or girl, that is inspired by watching that American team or the teams from all across the globe that now will. Will choose soccer as their outlet, will put down maybe their cell phone where they're wedded to this device, and instead look at the opportunities that the beautiful game provides.
- [49:32]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Congressman, how would you respond to some of those critics who were concerned about President Trump's involvement in that?
- [49:38]
TW Orig Arrighi (Vice President, Push Digital Group)
Well, I would say I think most of Americans were concerned about the red card, the way that happened, the use of the VAR, the uncertainty with the rules, with FIFA. So there was collective concern from U.S. soccer and from most Americans on that. Listen I think the president cares deeply about the American team, and I think it probably was going to happen, the overturning of it anyway. Obviously he weighed in on it and I think he had the right to do that. Looking out for the U.S. let's talk
- [50:05]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
about the late Senator Lindsey Graham, who just passed away recently. He's an example of somebody who did often work or tried to work in a bipartisan fashion. Are there other areas or examples in which you think Democrats and Republicans should be working together right now?
- [50:22]
TW Orig Arrighi (Vice President, Push Digital Group)
Well, it's a true loss for the Congress, for the country, obviously for South Carolina. We're still in shock at the loss of Lindsey Graham and the way that he was able to navigate so many complicated issues here in the Congress and work where he needed to across party lines. So we'll be grappling with his loss for a long time to come. In terms of other areas to work in a bipartisan way, yes, there are many, many areas, but I think sports transcends polit. We've seen this with this World Cup. I think we'll see it with the Olympics two years from now. We also have the Women's World cup that most likely will be here in 2031. We'll have the Winter Olympics and so and who knows, 2038. We're also talking about bringing the Men's World cup back here. So I think sports is one area to do that. But clearly there are other areas related to affordability, related to housing and other areas where we can work together.
- [51:09]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
Congresswoman, what are some other examples?
- [51:11]
Leigh Ann Caldwell (Chief Washington Correspondent, Puck News)
There's a whole lot of work to do when it comes to lowering the cost of living. It is really socking at two folks and that's why people were paying by high ticket prices. Yes, I think FIFA should have lowered the price of entry for a lot of folks and there were troubles with the resale market. And that is a lesson learned. But overall, I hope this opens the door for more international travelers to come to the United States because we have so much to offer, so many beautiful national parks and beaches. And hopefully this World cup provided a window into the true America, a place where we're all trying to work together, get ahead, make sure the folks who play by the rules and are doing everything right have the opportunity to succeed. And I think that's an important message for the rest of the world.
- [52:00]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
In 2031, potentially the Women's World cup will come to the US you mentioned. What do you think the biggest takeaway from this tournament will be that will be applied to that one.
- [52:10]
TW Orig Arrighi (Vice President, Push Digital Group)
I think America can do big things like the World Cup. We're talking about expanding the World cup in the Future, maybe to 64 teams. I think after we were able to showcase all of our cities here, we can even build a bigger World cup for the next time around. And I think as Kathy alluded, the safety and security was most important to everything. Making sure our fans and our visitors and people that came to the United States felt safe and secure and, and we accomplished that so far. We still have a few games left to go, but that was, I think, on showcase and Americans welcoming foreigners with open arms to see the beautiful game.
- [52:50]
Leigh Ann Caldwell (Chief Washington Correspondent, Puck News)
Yeah. And I'd like to see equal opportunity for every young person in the country to be able to participate in soccer and athletics. Clearly, Title IX over time has been that doorway that young women have been able to walk through. And I think the success of the women's national team is a credit to Title ix. Now, I hope that this World cup here in North America will provide that same inspiration to a new generation of young people so that they learn sportsmanship and all of those important social skills. Thanks to the beautiful game.
- [53:26]
Monica Alba (Meet the Press Host)
My thanks to them. And tune in this Sunday to watch Spain and Argentina in the World cup final on Telemundo and Peacock. There's more ahead on NBC News now.
- [53:36]
Political Commentator/Republican Supporter
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Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
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Ryan Nobles (NBC News Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)
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