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Meet the Press
Meet the Press NOW — July 2
00:49:48
A weaker-than-expected jobs jobs report renews concerns of a summer slowdown, all while the Trump administration touts an optimistic outlook on his economic agenda ahead of November’s midterms. Nearly half of all Americans face extreme heat warnings as a record-breaking heat wave makes its way across the country. ICE ramps up arrests, more than tripling recent daily averages in what may become a “new normal.”
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- [00:00]
Charles Barkley
It's Charles Barkley here with Wayfair. And let me tell you, game day is serious business at my house. If I'm grilling, chilling and watching hoops, my outdoor setup better be ready to play. That's where Wayfair wins. From patio seating and umbrellas to grills and grill accessories, Wayfair's got it all and it shows up fast. I'm talking fast and easy delivery. So level up your grill game and your outdoor chill game and head to Wayfarer.com to get your outdoor space ready for the season.
- [00:28]
Brian Chung
Wayfair.
- [00:29]
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- [01:12]
Chuck Todd
Welcome to MEET THE press.
- [01:13]
Kelly O'Donnell
Now.
- [01:13]
Chuck Todd
I'm Melanie's Nona in Washington as the White House faces the prospect of a summer slowdown in the jobs market with economic issues top of mind for voters heading into the November midterms. The latest jobs numbers showing the US economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below economists expectations and that the economy added 74,000 fewer jobs than thought in the prior two months. The unemployment rate remained fairly steady at 4.2%. The White House, though downplaying the disappointing news, saying, quote, the June jobs report reinforces that the American labor market remains solid thanks to President Trump's economic agenda. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett also trying to portray, portray an optimistic outlook.
- [02:01]
Kevin Hassett
I think that if you smooth through the ups and downs over the last three or four months, we're on a really steep upward trajectory. And I think the main story of the White House has been that all of these new factories, the groundbreakings that the president talking about, the $19 trillion is flowing into the economy is going to create a construction boom followed by an employment boom. And the construction boom is very visible in the data as well. But if you look at the jolts data where they tell you job openings, the job, there are millions and millions of job openings. And so if people are frustrated, got frustrated maybe because of Joe Biden's economy and left the labor market, they should come back in because there are jobs everywhere.
- [02:36]
Chuck Todd
Despite the disappointing jobs report we are seeing some positive signs for consumers struggling with high energy prices. The price of crude oil now nearly back to pre war levels around $67 a barrel. The price of gas also falling from its highs during the war. And there are some hopeful signs that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is starting to pick back up with 45 vessels transiting the vital waterway yesterday, according to ship trackers at Kepler, though well below the pre war average of 130 vessels a day. Iran, however, is still trying to exert its control over the strait, urging all tankers and commercial vessels to use routes designated for safe passage by Tehran and warning that failure to comply will be met with an immediate and decisive response. In a post on social media last night, President Trump touting the plummeting oil prices but saying gas prices are not dropping as fast as they should, promising gas prices will soon be back to their pre war levels. Joining me now is our all star team of reporters Kelly o' Donnell at the White House, Brian Chong is at the Big board and Keir Simmons is in Tel Aviv. Also with us is oil industry expert John Kilduff, who's also a partner at Again Capital llc. Thank you all so much for joining us. A lot to dig into here. I want to start at the White House with you, Kelly.
- [03:55]
Claudia Manresa
Thank you.
- [03:55]
Chuck Todd
We saw the White House try to downplay those latest jobs reports numbers, but is there any concern behind the scenes about a summer slowdown before the midterm elections?
- [04:04]
Kelly O'Donnell
Well, there's certainly a concern about the real world effects of what's happening with the economy. But as you note, the White House is not really addressing the concerns that are in those numbers and doing its best to find ways to talk about a broader picture, about a longer range trajectory. And at the same time, this is a White House that often will tout any kind of positive figures that work in the president's favor in the administration's best interest. And so the absence of doing that with today's numbers has to be something that people factor in as they gather this information and try and put together how the White House is assessing this. Certainly if this had been a robust figure, if it had met or exceeded the jobs anticipated, there'd be a very different approach from the White House. They are asking the public to look at a longer term and to see is there an upswing over time, looking for the sort of repatriation of manufacturing in the country and looking at some instances of construction. But so much of the picture of the jobs economy in our country is now more on service than on making things. So the White House is trying to put the best spin on gas prices. They're also, of course, looking for anything that brings some relief, especially as we're into the holiday weekend and the time when many people are taking vacations and taking those road trips with family and are are feeling the effects, as well as those whose jobs and employment are centered on the costs of fuel and how that has an impact on Americans in a very real way, if you ask the average citizen if they know if they're spending more on a given commodity, gasoline is often something they can specifically tell you about in terms of how much more it may cost to fill up their tank. So the White House is saying there are good things to see, but they are clearly having a more muted response based on these figures.
- [05:57]
Chuck Todd
Brian, take us through those latest jobs numbers and what does it say about the state of the economy?
- [06:02]
Brian Chung
Yeah, Mel, well, let's rehash those numbers we got from the government this morning. 57,000. That's how many jobs were added in the month of June. That was well below what economists were expecting. They were expecting about 115,000 jobs in the month. So that is a pretty huge miss. And it's a slowdown from what we saw in the three months prior when we saw over 100,000. In the case of March, over 200,000 jobs added. Now, if we unpack this and take a look at where we've seen these job changes, you could see social assistance and construction adding at a pretty healthy clip, of course, leisure and hospitality. These are bars and restaurants contracting by over 60,000 in just a month. This is a trend that we've seen in the past few reports. These are jobs at bars and restaurants. Interestingly, this is the industry that drove a lot of the job gains post pandemic. This is the one I want to focus on here. Health care adding 22,000. This has been the major driver over those really stellar three months of jobs reports we got prior to that, in part because of an aging workforce. We have a lot of, you know, we have an aging population here in the US that has increased the need for doctors and nurses in our healthcare industry. That has been driving a lot of the gains as well. So these are kind of the threads that we're watching. One economist at JP Morgan said this report does show the labor market continuing to chug along. It just seems like it's lost a little bit of a pep in its step because of that lower headline number.
- [07:17]
Chuck Todd
And Brian, oil prices are close to their pre war levels. What are you seeing and should consumers expect gas prices to also come back to pre war levels?
- [07:26]
Brian Chung
Yeah, I'm going to flip through a few slides here and just get to the gas prices. As you mentioned, $3.84. That is the latest read that we have on gas prices according to Triple A. And again, this is a significant slowdown for what we saw the peaks that was around $4.50 and as recently as the middle of May. Now, of course, the question here is when we get back to those pre war levels at 298 it was sub $3. And analysts that we've been hearing from have said, look, it's almost going to fall like a feather. And the reason why is because there's been months of this prolonged conflict in the Middle East. That means that yes, even if ships are going through the Strait of Hormuz, it's going to take a long time to plug the hold the supply that we lost. And even to your point before the segment, we are still not back to priority pre war volumes of ships going through the strait. Now, when we talk about barrels of oil that is trading down $69, this is the lowest that we've seen essentially since the start of the Iran war. But again, just because barrels of crude oil are trading back to where we were at the start of the Iran war doesn't mean we've recovered all that supply. That is the big story for why consumers are not seeing lower prices at the pump quite yet.
- [08:30]
Chuck Todd
Brian Chung, thank you. Let's turn back now to the White House with Kelly O. I want to talk about the talks with Iran because we heard the president say yesterday they were going to going very well. What do you think gives him that optimism?
- [08:43]
Kelly O'Donnell
Well, that's the president's sort of default position on these matters. We have seen him and heard him many, many times through the months of the conflict with Iran talk about their desperation to make a deal, their willingness to agree to his terms. And yet we're still in a position where we don't have an outcome that really moves us to the next level. The hostilities have been reduced, but the president's optimism is often a part of his positioning. It is sort of his public megaphone with negotiations as officials will meet and have conversations about some of the specifics. The president tends to emphasize what his outcome, desired outcome is and that is giving him that sense of it. So that is expected from the president. Certainly there are questions about the passageway through the Strait of Hormuz, questions about how that will work of Course, prior to this conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was open and there was no cost to those traveling through it, no penalty for using that thoroughfare. So the President is trying to put a positive spin on it, as his team is continuing to try to work out details with the parties involved here.
- [09:52]
Chuck Todd
I want to bring you into this conversation Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, both in the region, but they did not meet directly with the Iranians. So from the perspective of at least Iran and Gulf leaders, what is the status of the negotiations right now?
- [10:08]
Keir Simmons
Well, obviously, they have very different perspectives, but certainly the Iranians, I think, are prepared to let the negotiation drag out. I think they're also somewhat divided in Iran over exactly what they're trying to achieve. I think that they are facing real headwinds in terms of Iran's Iranian regime's desire to charge fees or tolls or whatever you want to call it for ships moving through the Straits of Hormuz. Because it's not just the US that's opposed to that. Europe is opposed to that, and countries here in the Middle east, particularly the Gulf nations, are opposed to that notion. So for the Iranians to manage to make that happen is going to. Would be a huge challenge. But in the end, what I think you're seeing Iranian officials do is to try to play hardball in negotiations. They want billions of dollars worth of funds, some of which are Iran's money, that have been frozen, some, for example, held by Qatar. They also want to be able to reconstruct their country. And what they'll say openly is that they want assurances, for example, that they won't be attacked again, even to the point of suggesting that they don't want US bases in countries that neighbour Iran. Of course, that's not going to be agreed to. So, look, I mean, the difference between the negotiating position of the Iranians and the US is as wide, wider, frankly, than the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the key questions. There are a number of others to get to. We have 60 days to resolve this. I suspect it's unlikely that that will be achieved in 60 days. I think that deadline will have to be extended.
- [11:47]
Chuck Todd
And care, you mentioned the Strait of Hormuz. We are seeing some traffic through the strait. But Iran has also threatened a decisive response if ships don't use the routes designated by Tehran. Is that in compliance with the Memorandum of Understanding?
- [12:02]
Keir Simmons
Well, the thing about the Memorandum of Understanding that was agreed between the Iranian regime and the Trump administration is that it is vague in places. And that's good because it meant that they could do a deal. But it's bad now because it's a struggle to sort of come to some sort of resolution in terms of what it does actually mean. Look, Vice President Vance said this week in an interview that the oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz. It's cargo ships that are being held back. And so I think that's part of the reason why you're seeing the oil price where it is. He openly said in that interview that the aim is to try to get the world economy back on track. And then after that, there is an open question about whether the Trump administration is what Vice President Vance suggested. Trump administration would return to war. So I think really what we're looking at is kind of a three month horizon, six month horizon, year long horizon for three months. I think we're going to be in these negotiations or perhaps it will be not as long as that. Beyond that, I think it's difficult to know exactly where things are going.
- [13:03]
Chuck Todd
Keir Simmons, thank you. Kelly O. Before I let you go, we do have some new images of the construction of an apparent helipad outside the White House. What more do we know here?
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Kelly O'Donnell
Well, you recall there was the US FC championship that had a lot of construction on the South Lawn that was all removed. And we knew that there was significant damage to the grass of the South Lawn and that there would be work done. But the images that we are seeing suggest based on this circular formation, what looks like cement is perhaps a helipad. And the reason we know that the president has talked about wanting a helipad. What is also interesting is the White House will not engage on this issue. We have shown them and other news organization organizations have shown them these images. It is up to a viewer to look at this and say, what's going on here? The White House is not telling us what the project is. So if the president wants to have a helipad on the South Lawn, that may in fact be what is taking place. What is notable about that is that the public has not been involved in this. We don't know of any oversight that has been related to this project. And of course, the helipad or a space for landing a helicopter has long been an issue. What we have seen for decades on the South Lawn are some marking points where Marine One would land on the grass. Any president would come in and leave from there. This would have a far more established location for a helicopter. And there has been a new helicopter. So it may accommodate that, but we have more questions than we have answers. But those images are telling.
- [14:41]
Chuck Todd
Kelly o' Donnell reporting on all the things for us today. Thank you, John Kilduff. I want to bring you back into this conversation and turn to that conversation about oil prices because as we mentioned, oil prices are essentially back to their pre war levels. But how durable is this decline?
- [14:59]
John Kilduff
I think it's fairly durable. I think the thing the market's not afraid of any longer is really persistent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a lack of supply of crude oil to the global market. As a matter of fact, there is a push on by Saudi Arabia, by the Iranians themselves, to sell mark, to sell oil on the spot market to various buyers in Asia who are now all of a sudden turning out to be a bit choosy. The Chinese especially. The saving grace in all of this situation was that the Chinese stepped back from the market. They, they curtailed their refining production in their country. The Japanese did too, to a lesser extent. So that eased the crude oil problem. The knock on effect of that, though, is that supplies of gasoline, jet fuel and other refined products are very tight and aren't being replenished because we're not seeing those refineries come back online and you have the Ukraine Russia war rearing its ugly head again and the Russians are now importing gasoline from India. So that's also feeding into this higher gasoline price relative to the crude oil price you're seeing.
- [16:11]
Chuck Todd
Yeah. On that subject, I mean, gas prices are still about a dollar per gallon higher than they were when the war in Iran began. So why are those two prices not falling exactly in tandem?
- [16:23]
John Kilduff
Right. I like to use the analogy that the crude oils, the flour, the gasoline is the cake. They got to make that flour into cake. And we just don't have the bakeries going full full tilt right now to be able to bring that product to market. So those prices are staying elevated. We're seeing terrific demand here in United States for gasoline. We got a report this morning that showed really robust gasoline demand. This is the peak though, this week, the next next week. This is the peak gasoline demand period here in the US It'll fall off from here. I suspect by Labor Day you will see a considerable price drop at the pump as well here in the US I don't know about the President's aspirational 250 a gallon, but certainly down around 325 is a realistic target for that time period.
- [17:11]
Chuck Todd
The war has also illustrated how much leverage Iran really has over global oil prices. Do you think its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz will create a more volatile energy market for the foreseeable
- [17:22]
John Kilduff
future in the near term? Absolutely. They've shown their willingness to, to lash out at ship traffic through the strait every weekend. When we're not trading, it seems like it's, there's verbiage from the Iranians about doing just that or being angry about some ship that went through or didn't go through. So we're going to have to deal with that. But I will tell you, this market has taken a lot of these, we call them tape bombs or bad headlines in stride. So the Iranians aren't getting the reaction price wise that they, I think, hope for. So their rhetoric is sort of losing some of its effect. But look, that's their ace in the hole. We're ready for this. And we know that they are going to try to be disruptive and use the straight as. They're really their sole point of leverage. So it's going to keep prices higher than they otherwise would have, not just for gasoline, but also for crude oil. We could be a lot lower if it wasn't for the Israeli antics that we're continuing to deal with.
- [18:20]
Chuck Todd
John Kilduff, thank you for your expertise. Coming up, cruel hot summer. More than 160 million Americans face dangerously high temperatures and record heat. That's nearly half the country pushing electric grids and key travel hubs to their limit. We're tracking the latest forecast and the fallout, plus a new normal we're following. A major surge in ice arrests after the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration appears to enter an intense new phase heading until July 4th. You're watching Meet the Press now.
- [18:57]
Charles Barkley
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- [19:26]
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- [19:54]
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- [20:27]
Chuck Todd
Welcome back. Right now nearly half of all Americans are under extreme heat warnings or advisories with forecasters predicting record breaking or near record breaking temperatures for much of the eastern half of the country. Heat alerts now in effect for 163 million Americans from Missouri to Massachusetts with conditions potentially deteriorating even further for the holiday weekend. It has local officials on high alert as the temperatures push power grids to their limits. New York City Mayor Zoran Mandani declaring a heat emergency, opening additional cooling centers, urging residents to conserve power and extending pool hours as temperatures in the nation's largest city hover near triple digits.
- [21:09]
Brian Chung
We are expecting incredibly hot temperatures.
- [21:13]
Chuck Todd
We are talking about a level of heat that the city has not seen
- [21:16]
Brian Chung
in more than a decade.
- [21:18]
Chuck Todd
Ryan Hanrahan is a meteorologist for NBC Connecticut and he joins me now. Ryan, what areas are facing record breaking temperatures today and tomorrow?
- [21:28]
Ryan Hanrahan
Well, it really is a large area that is dealing with this heat stretching from Maine all the way down to the mid Atlantic and back into the Midwest. Right now in New York City it's 98 degrees, but we got to 100 earlier and that is the first time we've gotten to 100 degrees since 2012. So it's been nearly 14 years. Boston got to 100 today, Hartford got to 100. Baltimore right now is at 100. And even far to the west, Detroit, 95. Factor in the humidity feels even warmer than that now. Tomorrow, not a lot of improvement here. We're talking about a temperature in Washington of 103. Factor in the humidity, feels more like 101Roanoke tomorrow, 100Athens. Looking at mid-90s there and across the Northeast in New England tomorrow, 99 degrees. The records 102 will probably fall just short of that in New York City, 101. Philadelphia, 104. Now the Heat is not the only issue here that we have to contend with. We got this big heat dome across the eastern half of the country, and it's what we call the ring of fire. Typically on the periphery of these heat domes, you can get some storms to develop. And there are some severe storms now across portions of the Midwest, moving through Wisconsin and portions of Iowa. These should stay north of Chicago. But there is a slight risk for severe weather from Milwaukee west toward Madison and a greater risk for some severe weather later on today across portions of South Dakota and Minnesota. Now, by tomorrow, that severe weather risk begins to shift to the east, and it looks like that severe weather risk will start from near Iowa all the way east into Chicago, then continuing toward New York City, Philadelphia and New Jersey. And on Saturday for the 4th, we're going to have to watch for some storms across the Mid Atlantic on west toward Pittsburgh. There is a risk for some severe weather from New York City down through Philadelphia and Washington. So obviously that would have some issues with the Fourth of July celebrations and any fireworks festivities. There's many of them going on. So the fireworks forecast storms likely across the Midwest. They'll be fairly scattered. It's not going to be the whole time on Saturday for the 4th that we will see some storms. So there will be at least some scattered storms. A risk for a couple thunderstorms across the Northeast. Out west, probably the best weather for the fourth. And your fireworks warm and dry from the Rockies on west toward the Pacific Northwest.
- [23:43]
Chuck Todd
Mel Ryan, thank you for that reporting and please stay cool. Turning now to some developing news when it comes to deportations Here in the U.S. nBC News is learning ICE has ramped up arrests to about 2,000 per day over the last five days, more than tripling recent daily averages. A source familiar with the operations told NBC News that the high number of arrests represent part of a, quote, new normal that ICE hopes to maintain. Joining me now is NBC News senior Homeland Security correspondent Julia Ainslie, who is behind this new reporting. Thank you, Julia, for joining us. Excellent reporting as always. Start with just breaking down what more we know about these ICE arrests.
- [24:22]
Julia Ainslie
Yeah, well, the surge is back. You know, we heard about high numbers last summer in places like Minneapolis earlier this year, and that was because there were other agencies like Border Patrol roving the streets, being told basically to stop anyone who might be an illegal immigrant and find out later exactly what their status was. Now it's actually just ice. They don't have other law enforcement agencies helping them out. And it's in part because of that one big, beautiful Bill money is really coming to fruition. They've hired 10,000 more agents. They're out on the street. These people are now trained and getting out that. And then there's more pressure coming from the White House. Now. There was a little bit of a cooling off period after the protests, of course, the fatal shootings in Minneapolis in January, where Trump felt like politically they needed a softer touch. Those are the words he used with our Tom Yamas. Now, though, Stephen Miller is back on the phone with ICE saying he wants to see 2,000 arrests a day. And that's exactly what they started delivering on Friday. Compare that to a normal weekend, a normal Saturday would be about 600 arrests a day.
- [25:19]
Chuck Todd
And I want to play something that Secretary Mullen said about all of this yesterday. We're not necessarily surging. We're going after the worst of the worst every single day. And we work in conjunction with the White House and the president's policies and deliver on that.
- [25:33]
Kevin Hassett
We're seeing our arrest numbers come up.
- [25:35]
Chuck Todd
We're seeing our deportation numbers continue to increase. You heard Secretary Mullen describe them as the worst of the worst. But what do we actually know about who is being arrested here?
- [25:46]
Julia Ainslie
Well, it's not always the worst of the worst. In fact, one of our affiliates in Milwaukee had a story just today about a father with no criminal record who was arrested. And many people who are languishing in detention have pending asylum claims. So it's not always the worst of the worst, but it's not quite as broad as we were seeing earlier this year when people were being stopped simply because they might be in a Home Depot parking lot. Oftentimes they are having information intelligence as they go out. But remains to be seen what ICE will look like under a new leader. Just this weekend, the president announcing on True Social he's going to tap Lance Schroyer, who comes from Oklahoma, Mullins home state. And as we understand, it is a close ally of Mullins to take over the agency, although he does not have experience in this agency. So it'll be interesting to see what ICE looks like under him and how he responds to that White House pressure from Stephen Miller.
- [26:32]
Chuck Todd
And Julia, I also want to ask you about an exclusive story that you just broke on a different subject, which is the Alaska Senate race and the saga of the two Dan Sullivans. What's the latest there?
- [26:41]
Julia Ainslie
Yeah, a little off my normal beat, but I found out about this and thought this was a fascinating story. There's a man named Dan Sullivan who is a Republican challenger on the ballot challenging Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. We have to use those middle initials so you can understand who we're talking about. Dan J. Sullivan had no prior political experience and in fact, a lower court said that he was not eligible to run, but Alaska Supreme Court just said he is. Now, we're reporting exclusively that there are two probes, a state probe and a federal probe looking into whether or not there's a conspiracy that's behind this campaign in order to confuse Alaskan voters. That could be a civil rights violation if they deprive Alaskan voters from a free and fair election by confusing them with two men from the same party with the same names.
- [27:23]
Chuck Todd
And Alaska is a key battleground Senate this fall.
- [27:26]
Julia Ainslie
You know that.
- [27:26]
Chuck Todd
Well, Julia, thank you for all your scoops of reporting. Up next, just four months to Election Day and we have brand new polling and forecasting on the state of some of the most consequential races that will decide the balance of power in Congress and the fate of President Trump's agenda. The panel breaks it down. Stay with us on MEET THE press. Now,
- [27:50]
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- [28:20]
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- [28:47]
Chuck Todd
There's a lot going on right now. Mounting economic inequality, threats to democracy, environmental disaster, the sour stench of chaos in the air. I'm Brooke Gladstone, host of WNYC's on the Media. Want to understand the reasons and the meanings of the narrative that led us here and maybe how to head them off at the pass that's on the media specialty. Take a listen wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. We have a new look at some of the most closely contested Senate races this midterm cycle as Democrats need to flip a number of Republican held seats in their quest to retake the Senate. Polling shows that path remains treacherous. In Maine, a Fox News poll shows Senator Susan Collins leading Democratic candidate Graham Platner, while a recent New York Times Siena poll shows Platner leading in that race. In Iowa, Democratic candidate Josh Turek facing the same uncertainty, leading in one poll while trailing Republican candidate Ashley Henson in the other. Meanwhile, other key races also all over the map, both literally and figuratively, with the Democrat leading in Georgia, a seat that they're defending, and North Carolina Republicans with the edge in Ohio and Alaska. And perhaps the most watched race this cycle in Texas Tide. It comes as our friends at the Cook Political Report moved Alaska from Leeds Republican to toss up. And remember, Democrats need to very nearly run the table on these races to retake the majority. Joining me now is our panel, Tia Mitchell, Washington bureau chief for the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Democratic strategist Joel Payne and Republican strategist Malik Abdul. Thank you all so much for joining us. Tia, I do want to start with you on this racing as I just laid out there kind of all over the map. But between now and November, do you see any chance that there could be some big changes in these races or do you think it's just going to be tight until the very end?
- [30:46]
Tia Mitchell
Well, I think they're going to be tight, especially in these swing states. But you know, so much can happen between now and November. Things are always popping up. Issues are popping up that could affect Trump's popularity and therefore how these candidates fare in the down ballot races. But also there could be, you know, controversies with the candidates. Graham Platner continues to surprise us. So I just think, yes, the polling means something for now and yes, it will be close, but things are likely to continue to change and shift.
- [31:19]
Julia Ainslie
Yeah.
- [31:19]
Chuck Todd
And Joel, the onus is really on Democrats at this point if they want to retake the Senate just given the way the map is. Do you see a scenario though where they start to cut some people loose in certain states to refocus on other seats that look more winnable to them?
- [31:33]
Joel Payne
I think you always have to reprioritize in a moment like this. And look, Democrats are not as cash rich quite as Republicans, but I'll tell you, the national environment is very favorable for Democrats. And these toss up races, in particular the ones that you highlighted, the national mood is going to impact those. If Donald Trump continues to be unpopular and goes even lower, it's going to drag the favorability and the opportunity of those Republicans down even further. So those races, I think are highly dependent upon a national environment combined with what's going on in those states.
- [32:02]
Chuck Todd
And most of these races are neck neck. But Malik, one race that stood out to me was in Georgia with Jon Ossoff leading Mike Collins 13 points. John Ossoff, the Democratic senator incumbent, does that surprise you at all?
- [32:14]
Malik Abdul
No, it really doesn't because he's been a senator now for a full term. And it's interesting because Ossoff himself, he kind of won on the coattails of Warnock. So he's in a much different position. And you see the Democrats now looking at him in a much different way. But that is a race that we're not looking. You know, there are other races that we're looking at that we could possibly win, but it would. I think Georgia and Carolina Republicans have some concerns that we're not going to be able to get those. But the other ones, Texas, even Texas, Paxton is now in general election mode. And so we're going to see more from Paxton just on the local level because most of them have been running national races. They're going to have to localize it, whether Democrat or Republican.
- [32:55]
Joel Payne
Let me assuage any Democrat who's looking at Jon ossoff up at 13.3, his win number is not 13 points. I think that shows directionally that Jon Oss was doing very well. His win number is probably like three to five points. And if he wins by three to five points, that's a blowout in Georgia.
- [33:09]
Chuck Todd
Joel, you also mentioned the cash advantage that Republicans have. There was also this really significant Supreme Court ruling in favor of the NRSC when it comes to campaign finance restrictions. How much, Malik, do you think that's going to matter for Republicans?
- [33:24]
Malik Abdul
Well, we've seen in the past that yes, money matters, but not necessarily remember Bloomberg, he had plenty of money and he didn't do anything with it. This is about structure. This is about to get out the vote operation. It isn't just about campaign ads or things like that. Voters have to be moved to the polls. And so it depends on who's more motivated come November. I think that's going to determine the election at this point. Democrats are more motivated, but maybe that's the whole reason that Donald Trump is now having the midterm, like the midterm convention in Dallas to kind of get the Republican vote out there.
- [33:58]
Chuck Todd
And ti I want to talk about another race. That's Michigan. We don't know who the Democrats Democratic candidate is going to be. We do know Mike Collins, sorry, Mike Rogers is going to be The Republican. That is an interesting race because you have Alexandria Ocasio Cortez just throwing her support behind the progressive candidate, Abdul El Sayed. Do you think this is going to be the biggest test for progressive momentum that we'll see all year?
- [34:19]
Tia Mitchell
I think it's like the latest test. I don't know if it's the biggest test because Michigan you talked about. Malik talked about localizing these races. At the end of the day, Michigan has a very small, specific electorate that is different than other states. So this is a Michigan test. And I think we also need to zero in on what are people's problem with the candidates, other than the fact that he's a brown candidate who's a Muslim. Like, what of his policies do people think are objectionable? Is it his position towards Israel? Okay, well, where is he with the base on this? Because the base might say we actually like his position on Israel. So I think these are the conversations that Democrats now nationally will be watching. But we shouldn't take anything too much. You know, we can't make a national decision or a national implication on something that's still gonna be very specific to Michigan.
- [35:13]
Chuck Todd
Yeah, that's a great point.
- [35:14]
Joel Payne
Can I add something about that? Look, I think the Michigan race is such a microcosm of what's going on at the Democratic Party right now. You've got three lanes. Haley Stevens kind of in that moderate dim lane. Mallory Morrow basically center left. And then you got Abdul Al Said, who was holding down the progressive lane. And you're going to see that mimicked in 2028. That's. Those lanes will be represented in the 2028 Democratic primary. But this is a test of where is the energy and where's the organizing muscle in the Democratic Party right now? And I think that's actually what Abdul El said. Strength is showing the organizing muscle and the energy in the party. It's in that part of the party and that part of the coalition.
- [35:50]
Chuck Todd
And Malik, do Republicans want to run against El Sayed versus someone like Haley Stevens?
- [35:54]
Malik Abdul
What is that a trick question? Absolutely. To piggyback off of what Joel said, Republicans are looking at this. You said the progressive wing. We're going to run against Democratic socialism. Because that seems to be where their energy is, where the muscle is in the Democratic Party, whether that's here in Washington, D.C. or a place like Colorado or New York. The Democratic Party at this point is returning to the AOC days of the squad, where they were the very far left wing of the Republican of the Democratic Party. And we will be happy to run against them.
- [36:26]
Chuck Todd
The other fascinating storyline is that it's AOC versus Chuck Schumer in the endorsements in that race. I do want to turn to another story on Capitol Hill though, with you, Tia. Mitch McConnell, we know he was hospitalized earlier last month. We don't know if he's still in the hospital. We don't know why he was hospitalized. But we are reporting here at NBC that paramedics responded to a cardiac arrest at someone at his address. Just talk to me more broadly here about what is the obligation for lawmakers to be more transparent about their health conditions. Cuz it's not just Mitch McConnell.
- [36:56]
Kevin Hassett
Yeah.
- [36:57]
Tia Mitchell
Cuz I mean you think about Neil Dunn. The only reason we know he's terminally ill is because Donald Trump kind of spilled the beans his office. He has never really talked about what's ailing him, but he's missed votes for several weeks now.
- [37:10]
Chuck Todd
That's the Florida Republican.
- [37:11]
Tia Mitchell
Yeah, yeah, the Florida Republican. Of course, the New Jersey Republican. King just returned and kind of explained his month long absence. At the end of the day it's a delicate balance because there's still people, they still have privacy, they still have family and people they want to maybe protect or their own just personal proclivities of how much they want to share. But they are members of Congress. They have people who they are sent to Washington to represent. They're being paid during these absences. And I think they do owe the people a level of transparency that we're just not seeing.
- [37:47]
Chuck Todd
Yeah. Malik, do you think?
- [37:48]
Malik Abdul
I absolutely agree with that and we're seeing that. And this is apolitical and it would be different if it were, you know, someone worked at a company or something like that. These are elected officials and we should protect their privacy, their health concerns. But at the end of the day, when you represent the people, you owe it to the people to be transparent. You don't have to tell us what the condition is, but they should be more transparent about things because. Because it seems as if these things have been known for a very long time. It's just that they've been swept under the rug.
- [38:18]
Joel Payne
Let's not cross reference their record against how they voted on paid leave, any of these folks, because I'm sure if any of these folks have looked at how they vote on paid leave, how they vote on supporting working families with people with illnesses, I'm sure those records will come back very consistent.
- [38:31]
Chuck Todd
Well, to that point, Tom Kaine, he's a Republican who had been out for four months. He says it's because of depression. There have been some Democrats who have said, hey, his positions have not been always supportive of mental health services. He voted for the big beautiful bill last year which cut Medicaid. Do you think this could be a liability?
- [38:47]
Joel Payne
Yeah. And it underscores the divide between what people in D.C. how they think about politics and how it's experienced by people out in the country who do not understand why the divide exists that way. These folks in D.C. do not understand how angry and how frustrated people are out in the country with how far away it seems like their experience is from theirs.
- [39:08]
Chuck Todd
And Tia, do you think there is a chance that Congress potentially reforms the way they are required to disclose information, like when they're out for long periods of time?
- [39:16]
Tia Mitchell
I mean, I think so, especially if people start getting angry about it, that they'll want to show that they're doing something to address the concerns. I think there may also be, you know, more discussion about absences and proxy voting and what types of medical conditions would allow someone to designate someone. You know, we talked about for prep pregnant women, for example, should they be allowed to have a proxy because they can't come to D.C. if they're nursing or have complications or just want to be with their newborn who can't travel? So I think these are conversations that should be held. But we got to have these conversations in good faith. And it starts with being honest about what members of Congress are going through and how that affects their ability to carry out their job day to day.
- [40:02]
Chuck Todd
We'll have to leave it there, but that was an excellent conversation. Joel Malik and Tia, thank you very much. After the break behind the effort to overhaul how many primary elections are run around the country and how it could reshape Congress and the state of US Politics. Keep it here on MEET THE PRESS now. Welcome back. As we pass the halfway mark of the midterm primaries, advocates of election reform are warning that Congress could soon become even more polarized than it already is. In the past several months, Republican primary voters in places like Texas, Kentucky and Louisiana have forced out incumbent lawmakers who crossed President Trump and didn't have his endorsement. And on the Democratic side, left wing candidates have ousted incumbent and more moderate candidates in states like New York and Colorado. The advocates of primary reform say closed single party primaries, which often exclude independent voters, are a major factor that can feed polarization in our politics, resulting in less governing and more vitriol. Joining me now is one of those leading voices advocating for this type of reform, founder and president of the group Open Primaries. John Opdyke. John, thank you so much for joining us. This is one of those fascinating but sort of under the radar storylines. But talk to me about how this process would work, what kind of primary you're advocating for and what that would actually look like on a practical level.
- [41:36]
John Kilduff
Sure.
- [41:37]
John Opdyke
And, you know, a number of states have eliminated party primaries and gone to people's primaries where everybody gets to vote for whoever they want, just like in the general election. We see that in California, in Nebraska, Washington and Alaska. And it creates a whole different dynamic that I think is much more in tune with where the country is going. Because if you look at the stats, Melanie, Every single week, 10,000Americans change their voter registration from Democrat or Republican to independent. It's now 48% of the country, fastest growing set of the segment of the electorate. And yet our election system is set up where kind of independents are more. They're seen as interlopers and outsiders and they don't quite fit in the structure of the existing system. And that's something that's got to change if we want our Democratic experiment to keep moving in a positive direction.
- [42:33]
Chuck Todd
I want to read for you a quote from the conservative Lincoln Institute arguing against open primaries. They said, as a registered Republican and one who has been active in the Republican Party my entire adult life, I do not want Democrats or anyone not a member of the Republican Party deciding our standard bearer. Open primaries would in fact deprive us of the ability to select candidates who adhere to the principles and policies for which our party stands. How do you respond to that?
- [43:01]
John Opdyke
Well, in two ways. First of all, the closed primary system, which we have in 16 states, actually creates what he's talking about. We just did a poll, for example, in New York City. We found that 40%, 40% of registered Democrats are actually independents and Republicans. People join a party only to gain the right to vote. So if you, if you want your party to be made up of only members, you definitely have to have an open system so people don't have to join your party even though they don't believe in it. Secondly, there is no a contradiction between party rights and a system that allows voters, all voters, to participate. Parties are free. They're private organizations. They're free to have conventions, nominate, endorse as they see fit. But if you're talking about a publicly funded election system, then everybody should be able to participate. That's how I see it.
- [44:02]
Chuck Todd
What do you say to the argument that anyone can already vote in a closed primary, just join the party?
- [44:08]
John Opdyke
Well, some independents do that, but a lot of independents aren't willing to join an organization that they don't support. They have moral, political, ideological objections to. And I don't think in, in a functioning democracy that you should require, you know, joining a private organization in order to vote. I mean, that's more, you know, Brezhnev would be in favor of that, but I don't see why we would embrace that here in the United States.
- [44:39]
Chuck Todd
California holds a top two primary in the governor's race. We saw Democrat Javier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advance the general election. Do you think open primaries have led to different kinds of candidates advancing to the general election?
- [44:52]
John Opdyke
Absolutely. Top two open nonpartisan primaries has been in place in California for now 16 years and it has been transformative. First of all, look at the, look at the results of this primary season. We're only halfway through. By far the highest turnout of any state in the country is California. Over 40% of people vote in the primary because they get to choose among all the candidates. They're not locked in to a party silo. The other thing is that you're seeing this in very liberal areas, in very conservative areas, you see two candidates from the same party advance to the general election. And that creates a whole nother set of opportunities for voters to have a real choice. I mean, one of the scandals about all the gerrymandering that's been going on around the country in red states and blue is that come November, most congressional races, the latest estimates are as high as 90%. They're already done. Everyone knows who's going to win. The primary is the only election that counts. But when you create a non partisan primary and you move the most popular candidates, regardless of party, from the primary to the general, you create real competition in November. And we see that in California and other states. Yeah.
- [46:09]
Chuck Todd
Thank you so much. We really appreciate all your reporting. Still to come, a miraculous moment against a backdrop of absolute devastation. A man pulled from the rubble alive eight days after last week's catastrophic earthquakes in Venezuela. We'll get get the view from a humanitarian worker on the ground in Caracas as the nation faces a long road to recovery. This is MEET the PRESS now. Welcome back. Overnight, Russia launched a massive large scale attack on Ukraine's capital, Kiev. At least 21 people are dead and dozens more are injured. According to the country's Interior Ministry. Waves of explosions sent civilians scrambling underground, taking shelter in the city's metro stations. Residents emerged in the early morning to heavy smoke and the smell of fire filling the air. Ukraine says Russia launched nearly 500 drones and 94 missiles hitting mainly residential buildings across the capital. In recent weeks, Russia has ramped up its attacks on Kyiv amid Ukraine's long range drone campaign on Russian energy sites. The latest attacks come just ahead of next week's NATO summit in Turkey. And turning now to Venezuela, where the search for survivors has largely become a recovery effort as authorities face the additional challenge of recovering, identifying and burying thousands of victims. At least 2,000 people are dead, according to the government, and more than 50,000 are missing after last week's massive back to back earthquakes. Still, families and rescue teams are digging day and night to find their loved ones and clinging to moments of hope. Today, eight days after the earthquake struck, a security guard was rescued from the rubble of the seven story building where he worked. Rescue teams were able to keep the man alive by passing him water and food through a hose. But public anger is growing as critics say the Venezuelan government's response to the disaster has been too slow. Many countries, including the U.S. and international aid organizations, have deployed resources to assist with the disaster. Joining me now from Caracas is Claudia Manresa, the regional manager in Venezuela for the international aid organization Project hope. Claudia, thank you again for joining us and thank you for all of your efforts there on the ground. Tell me about Project HOPE and the work that you're doing right now in Venice, Venezuela.
- [48:41]
Claudia Manresa
Thank you for having me for giving me the space to speak about what's going on in Venezuela. Project HOPE is a humanitarian organization with more of 70 years of experience in implementation of health program, emergency response program and humanitarian programs. We've been in Venezuela since 2019, supporting over 55 healthcare facilities around eight different states of the country. Our medical staff has been working nonstop since the earthquakes last week. We have delivered pallets of medical equipment, supplies and medicines to the main emergency networks in the most affected states, Miranda and La Guayra. We have also provide first aid, psychological first aid to the survivors and to all the persons, the people affected by these earthquakes. And we have also distributed aqua taps to secure safe drinking water for over 250 families.
- [49:46]
Chuck Todd
And Claudia, what sorts of challenges or limitations are aid workers like yourself on the ground experiencing when it comes to delivering or providing aid?
- [49:57]
Claudia Manresa
It's heartbreaking what we're seeing on the streets. So as a Venezuelan, it's really hard to see your own people suffering. We have been able to coordinate with the health authorities in Distrito Capital Miranda and La Guayra, which were the most affected states by these earthquakes. But we are running short of supplies and we will run out of supplies very soon. So we need the support of the international community and of course, everyone who can donate to Project Hope. You can visit projecthope.org and make your donation to help us support the persons that are affected by these airports.
- [50:35]
Chuck Todd
I know Project HOPE conducted a rapid needs assessment following the earthquakes. Can you tell us what the key findings were from that assessment and what are the biggest needs in Venezuela right now?
- [50:46]
Claudia Manresa
Yes, hospitals and basically all the healthcare facilities remain overwhelmed. At least 57% of the health care facilities that we have visited are facing power and a water outage. We also have been able to coordinate relief hubs with our team continuously. The priority needs are clearly identified. We urgently required medicines and medical supplies for primary health care facilities, IV solutions, surgical supply. There's also a critical shortage of pain medication, antihypertensive glucometers, hygiene kits and safe drinking water to also prevent secondary health crisis.
- [51:28]
Chuck Todd
The report also details pre existing vulnerabilities in Venezuela prior to the earthquake. What are those and how do they complicate ongoing efforts?
- [51:38]
Claudia Manresa
Yeah, so as I already said, Venezuela already faced overwhelmed health care, overwhelmed health care system. So of course, this crisis, it's really critical. We have more than thousands of people that are still looking for their loved ones and their family members and we're still seeing thousands and hundreds of people looking to receive medical attention. So this tragedy joins to an already overwhelmed health care system. And we have been trying to support the primary health care facilities since 2019, but it is a major crisis and it is devastating what we're seeing.
- [52:25]
Chuck Todd
And the disaster has also had an especially hard impact on vulnerable groups of people, including pregnant women, children, people with disabilities. What specific challenges are those groups facing in the wake of this disaster?
- [52:40]
Claudia Manresa
We have seen a lot of pregnant women starting to deliver their kids on the street. So we're trying to respond to that. Also with kids for the women, it is really hard for them to receive medical attention at the moment. And that's why we're also providing mobile medical units to support the people in need and to support also not only kids that have survived through this tragedy and pregnant women as well.
- [53:10]
Chuck Todd
And lastly, if people would like to donate, where can they do so?
- [53:14]
Claudia Manresa
You can visit project hope.org, that's the website of the organization. There you can find the campaign we're raising funds to keep providing medical assistance, NFI kids and medication to those in need. So please visit project hope.org and you can make your donation now.
- [53:33]
Chuck Todd
Claudia Manresa, thank you again for your time, for all of your efforts and please stay safe.
- [53:38]
Claudia Manresa
Thank you very much.
- [53:43]
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