Meet the Press NOW — June 18

Summary

Meet the Press NOW — June 18, 2026

Host: Kristen Welker, NBC News
Air Date: June 18, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of Meet the Press NOW focuses on three major storylines at the intersection of U.S. domestic and foreign policy:

• The fallout and intense debate over the Trump administration’s initial peace agreement with Iran, including U.S. sanctions relief and security implications.
• A historic and emotional opening of the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago, with reflections on the Obama legacy and sharp contrasts drawn with the Trump era.
• Major political signals ahead of the midterm elections, including changing House race ratings favoring Democrats and ongoing voter concerns about the economy.

The episode is packed with real-time reactions, expert analysis, and notable panel discussions exploring the ramifications of the White House's choices at home and abroad.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S.–Iran Peace Agreement: Contentious Reactions and Unanswered Questions

(01:11 – 18:54)

Deal Details & White House Messaging

• Kristen Welker opens with the breaking news: President Trump signs an agreement at the Palace of Versailles to end hostilities with Iran.
• The U.S. commits to ending the naval blockade, lifting all sanctions, granting export waivers for Iranian oil, and releasing frozen Iranian assets. Iran, in return, promises to allow safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days and commit (again) not to pursue nuclear weapons.

White House Defense:

• J.D. Vance (VP, 02:15):
  “The only way that they would ever get any benefit of the bargain is if they comply fully and change their behavior…Words don’t matter, ladies and gentlemen. We’re about verification.”
• Despite this, Welker points out that the release of frozen funds is not explicitly conditioned on Iran’s behavior.

Republican & Israeli Criticism:

• J.D. Vance (03:02):
  “History demonstrates that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is an exceptionally bad idea.”
• Discontent among Republicans centers on potential immediate financial benefit for Iran ($300 billion in reconstruction funds) and the deal’s perceived failure to address missile capabilities and support for terrorist proxies.
• Vance’s message to Israeli critics:
  (08:25)
  “Anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation…”

Implementation & Open Questions:

• Monica Alba (WH Correspondent, 05:39 – 07:03):
  The signing of the memorandum kickstarts a crucial 60-day negotiation period. Details of the actual disbursal of financial benefits and sanctions relief are murky and the contentious fund's source is unclear.
• Courtney Kuby (NatSec Correspondent, 10:11):
  The U.S. naval blockade is lifted, but the military retains flexibility to reimpose measures if needed. Uncertainty surrounds potential U.S. troop reductions both in the Gulf and Europe after NATO allies withheld airspace.

Capitol Hill Mood:

• Melanie Zenona (14:08):
  Republicans are sharply divided; some are relieved the war is over and gas prices are falling, but defense hawks warn the agreement "negotiates away the victories of Operation Epic Fury."

  Roger Wicker (15:08):
  "The $300 billion fund for the reconstruction…would make Iran's payoff under President Obama’s 2015 deal look like a pittance by comparison.”

Economic Impact:

• Brian Chung (16:55 – 18:54):
  Last night saw 12.5 million barrels of oil pass through Hormuz—about 60% of pre-war levels (which was 20 million). Gas prices have begun falling ($3.99/gallon) and could drop further, but remain higher than before the conflict.

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2. Ukraine Escalates: Drone Strikes on Moscow

(21:04 – 26:23)

Attack Overview:

• Ukraine launches its largest drone strike yet on Moscow. 200 drones (per Russian officials) succeed in hitting major infrastructure, including an oil refinery and an apartment building.
• President Zelensky:
  “If Putin does not want to end this war, we will not sit quietly. We will respond.”

Analysis by Keir Simmons (Chief International Correspondent, 22:03):

• The attacks are unprecedented in scale and visibility—sending a clear message to Russia’s public.
• Drones have “transformed the nature of war” and Russia has the capacity to respond in kind, including with Iranian-supplied drones.
• U.S. policy previously restrained Ukraine from striking Russian territory; that appears to have shifted.
• European allies back Ukraine but see only incremental changes on the front lines.

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3. Obama Presidential Center Opens: Legacy and Political Contrasts

(28:56 – 37:23)

Opening Ceremony:

• Obama and Michelle Obama spoke before thousands, every living former president and first lady in attendance—except Trump, who was not invited.

• Obama’s remarks underscored democratic values, the rule of law, peaceful transfer of power, and the military’s allegiance to the Constitution—not any president or party.

  Barack Obama (30:51):
  "A belief in the intrinsic dignity and worth of all people... that no one is above the law or beneath its protection..."

• Michelle Obama (31:04):
  Calls out past "lies about your birthright, your faith, your patriotism... You were unflappable at every turn... doing the people's work, rescuing our economy, expanding healthcare, ending a war..."

Reporter On-the-Ground: Shaquille Brewster in Chicago

• The event was both a celebration and a “rallying cry” for democratic participation and accountability (32:53).
• Obama’s legacy is positioned as a call to action for the next generation; Valerie Jarrett, CEO of the Obama Foundation, emphasized the center is about “what we can all do together” (35:55).

Panel Response:

• Panel reflects on the "presidential" tone of the event and contrasts it with current political discourse.

  Idris Calhoun (44:34):
  “It just reminds you a lot of what politics was like before the Trump era.” Kendra Barkoff (45:11):
  “We have forgotten what it’s like to actually be presidential... a reminder that differences can be handled respectfully.”

• Republican strategist T.W. Arihi wishes Trump had been invited, but blames Obama-era policy for sowing division (45:59).

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4. Midterm Election Outlook: House Races Shift towards Democrats

(38:30 – 42:28)

Cook Political Report:

• Erin Covey (38:30):
  "We’ve moved seven safe Republican House seats into more competitive categories."
• Three seats now “lean Republican” (NC-11, MI-4, IA-2); four “likely” instead of “solid” Republican.
• Democrats benefit from heightened voter enthusiasm and overlapping competitive Senate and governor’s races (40:37).
• Big Picture:
  “Midterm elections are almost always going to be a referendum on the party that’s in power, and that’s Republicans in this case.” (41:58)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• VP J.D. Vance (02:15):
  “Words don’t matter, ladies and gentlemen. We’re about verification.”

• VP J.D. Vance (08:25):
  “Anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality...”

• Barack Obama (30:51):
  "...no one is above the law or beneath its protection...our military and law enforcement owe allegiance not to anyone, president or political party, but to the people and our Constitution.”

• Michelle Obama (31:04):
  “Always focused, always calm... doing the people's work, rescuing our economy, expanding health care, ending a war...winning a peace prize.”

• Roger Wicker (15:08), via Melanie Zenona:
  “The $300 billion fund…would make Iran’s payoff under President Obama’s 2015 deal look like a pittance by comparison.”

• Valerie Jarrett (35:55):
  "It's not about what he [Obama] can do, it's what we can all do together."

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:11 — Kristen Welker introduces main story: U.S.–Iran agreement
• 02:15 — VP J.D. Vance on deal verification
• 03:23 — Capitol Hill & Republican criticism
• 04:54 — Trump’s original objectives vs. current deal
• 05:39 — Monica Alba on 60-day negotiation window
• 07:03 — White House defense of $300B fund
• 08:25 — Vance addresses Israeli critics
• 10:11 — Courtney Kuby: Naval blockade and Pentagon investigation
• 13:03 — Courtney Kuby: Potential U.S. European troop reductions
• 14:08 — Melanie Zenona: Capitol Hill reaction
• 16:55 — VP Vance on Strait of Hormuz oil & economic impact
• 18:54 — Segment ends, shift to Ukraine
• 21:04 — Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow, Keir Simmons analysis
• 28:56 — Obama Center ceremony, democratic values speech
• 35:49 — Valerie Jarrett on Obama’s current role
• 38:30 — Erin Covey explains House race ratings shift
• 44:34 — Panel: Obama’s message and legacy
• 48:02 — Panel: comparison of Iran deal politics (Trump vs. Obama)
• 52:12 — Polls: Economy a persistent voter concern

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Conclusion

This episode dives deep into America’s turbulent foreign policy pivot with Iran and its implications at home, as well as the commemorative opening of the Obama Center—a moment not just of nostalgia, but of sharp political signaling for the future. The looming midterms, shifting House races, and ongoing economic anxieties serve as a backdrop while the panel weighs sobering questions about America’s direction, political tone, and the legacy of its leaders.

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Transcript

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[David Remnick]

Right now, we are living through some of the most tumultuous political times our country has ever known. I'm David Remnick, and each week on the New Yorker Radio Hour, I'll try to make sense of what's happening alongside politicians and thinkers like Cory Booker, Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney, Tim Waltz, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Newt Gingrich, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Charlamagne, tha God, and so many more. That's all on the New Yorker Radio Hour wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Kristen Welker]

Welcome to Meet the Press Now. I'm Kristen Welker in Washington, where the White House is on defense over its initial agreement with Iran, which the president signed last night at the palace of Versailles. The White House arguing it's a win for the United States, even as critics, regional experts, and some Republicans say, say the terms of the deal largely favor Iran and don't achieve the goals the president himself set out for the war. According to the agreement, the U.S. commits to ending its naval blockade, will terminate all types of sanctions against Iran, will issue waivers for export of Iranian oil and petroleum products, and release Iran's frozen funds. In return, Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, which was the case before the war. Iron Iran also commits to not producing or procuring nuclear weapons, a comment they've made for decades. A commitment, I should say, they've made for decades. Vice President Vance trying to sell the agreement today in the White House briefing room and insisting Iran will not get any of the financial and safety benefits if it doesn't change its behavior.

[Vice President J.D. Vance]

But the only way that they would ever get any benefit of the bargain is if they comply fully and change their behavior. This idea that the Iranians get all these benefits before the deal is actually consummated, the idea that they get benefits before they change their behavior is fundamentally a talking point that is issued by people who Want the conflict to continue indefinitely. There's a lot of discussion. The mou, this, the gentleman's agreements, the final deal. Words don't matter, ladies and gentlemen. We're about verification.

[Kristen Welker]

But despite what the vice President is saying, the deal does not explicitly tie the release of frozen funds to Iran's behavior. And several Republicans on Capitol Hill are raising alarm bells, particularly about the release of those funds to Iran.

[Vice President J.D. Vance]

History demonstrates that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is an exceptionally bad idea.

[Idris Calhoun]

I don't want to give them any money. I mean, I wouldn't want to give Iran any money.

[Kristen Welker]

Everything I've heard about it causes me concern. Vice President Vance, trying to downplay those concerns today.

[T.W. Arihi]

Many of the colleagues that you serve with in the US Senate and Republican Conference have criticized this deal over the last 24 hours. What is your message, Mr. Vice President?

[Kristen Welker]

Back to them.

[Vice President J.D. Vance]

So I guess I would say to anybody, any of the critics is, number one, have a little bit of faith in the President, United States, the idea that he is going to strike a deal, that's been bad for the American people. It's preposterous. I think that when people get to understand not just the agreement, that but our negotiating posture as a country, they will realize this is an excellent thing for the American people.

[Kristen Welker]

But much of what is in the agreement does not appear to fulfill the president's original objectives when he launched combat operations against Iran more than 100 days ago. Here's what Mr. Trump said in February when he announced Operation Epic Fury.

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We are going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally, again, obliterated. We're going to annihilate their navy. We are going to ensure that the region's terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces and no longer use their IEDs or roadside bombs, as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans. And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.

[Kristen Welker]

Now, in my interview with the president earlier this month, he told me Iran still has more than 20% of its missiles. And this deal does not address Iran's support for its proxies or dismantle Iran's nuclear program. It just starts those negotiations. And remember that back in March, the president said, quote, there will be no deal with Iran except unconditional support, surrender. Joining me now is our team of reporters. To start us off, White House correspondent Monica Alba, senior National security correspondent Courtney Kuby, Capitol Hill correspondent Melanie Zenona, and business and data correspondent Brian Chung. Thanks to all of you. Monica, I'm going to start with you at the White House. So we heard from the vice president that technical talks could get started as soon as this weekend in Switzerland. What do we know about this trip?

[Monica Alba]

Yeah, well, the expectation, Kristen, was that the vice president could be in Switzerland as early as tomorrow. Remember, that is what the president and the White House had indicated when there was all this back and forth about signing the memorandum of understanding electronically, which we know happened a few days ago. And then everything was pointing to a more ceremonial in person signing that was perhaps going to take place with the vice president and other key officials representing Iran and the mediators at some point again this weekend, perhaps in Switzerland. But the vice president did cast a little bit of doubt on that today from the White House press briefing where he said he hopes that that is what's going to happen, but that they're still trying to figure out whether those who are going to be traveling from IR will be making their way over to Switzerland. So it's still a little bit of an open question. But I think the really important point to make here is that even though this memorandum of understanding was signed last night by the president at the palace of Versailles, it kickstarts the most important process here, right, which is this 60 day now period of intensive negotiations where they have to figure out some of the thorniest issues that have not been dealt with yet in the tentative deal.

[Kristen Welker]

And there are a number of thorny issues, Monica, that's for sure. Look, one of the biggest criticisms, as you know, as you've been tracking, revolves around this issue of that $300 billion reconstruction fund as well as leaving Iran with missile capabilities. What's the White House's pushback about those? Specifically?

[Monica Alba]

They say that Iran will only be able to be the beneficiary of some of those unfrozen assets if and when they, quote, change their behavior or if and when they comply with a final agreement. So again, there's a lot of ifs and a lot of whens in that statement. And so that is why you are seeing, even from Republican allies, criticism and questions about whether, for instance, allowing Iran to sell and export its oil again isn't basically a major financial benefit for it. Essentially, that's what the vice president was asked. How can you argue that it's not? And so what the vice president, what the White House are trying to make clear here is that they are arguing that this isn't money that the US Is directly giving to Iran. But it doesn't answer the question from critics about potentially again unfreezing some of these assets, billions in dollars which could be coming from other countries. That could happen before the end of this 60 day period. But again, the White House and the vice president today insisting that that will not happen in this intermediary phase. But there are still real questions about exactly how that's going to work. And again, Iran, from their view, we're will have some financial benefit immediately now that this tentative deal is in effect.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, the White House and the vice president had some sharp words for Israel today. I want to play that. Monica, get your reaction on the other side.

[Vice President J.D. Vance]

You've seen people within Bibi's cabinet who have come out and attacked the deal and in some ways very personally attacked the president of the United States. And I guess my message to them would be twofold. Number one, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time. And he happens to be the head of state of the world superpower. Anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in.

[Kristen Welker]

Is the White House concerned those comments could backfire, Monica, deepen the rift that seems to be emerging between the US And Israel?

[Monica Alba]

Yeah, that was quite a striking statement from the vice president. Those were his parting words as he left the press briefing room in a message it seems he really did want to deliver, aimed at those critics of the deal in Israel, but saying specifically that he wasn't aiming that comment necessarily at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, though we know that President Trump has expressed his own frustration with him over the last couple of days. Israel, of course, is not party to this deal, neither is Hezbollah. And a really important point to all of this is that the president, president is seeming to say just on Truth social today, that this cease fire will include, he says we expect a complete cease fire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel. But that is something that is still occurring kind of on the perimeter of all of this, Kristen, but one that certainly will be a really careful and, you know, considered part of the negotiations because we have seen continued strikes from Israel in Lebanon. And that could really prolong the longevity of this conflict and complicate how the US Is dealing with Israel as it is trying to navigate an end to this war with Iran.

[Kristen Welker]

All right, Monica Alba at the White House for us. Monica, thank you so much. Courtney Kibbe, let me turn to you. So the vice president saying that 60 day period starts right now. So has the US naval blockade been lifted? What's the latest?

[Melanie Zenona]

It has.

[Courtney Kuby]

So basically the US Military is no longer stopping ships that are coming and going from Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Man, wherever it is. That being said, the military presence has not left. So they may have pushed back a little bit from where they were. They can reenact the blockade if they want. They can respond in any way if they need to. But as of now, they are no longer stopping ships as they have been for more than a month now.

[Kristen Welker]

And you also have new reporting on the Pentagon investigation into that strike that hit that school, the elementary school. What are you hearing about that court and when might that actually be released the report?

[Courtney Kuby]

And this was something President Trump was asked about at the G7, the closing press conference yesterday. This was the of course, happened in the very earliest hours of the war against Iran and Iran when more than 170 people were killed, mostly little kids. Now, CENTCOM has been looking at this, investigating this for weeks. That review or investigation is nearly finished. Now it's with the highest level military officials for review. But there's a lot of concern that we're hearing about now on Capitol Hill that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth may classify the report and that the findings may never be released publicly. And why that is so concerning is because our reporting has been that it is most likely that there was a US Munition that was used that, that hit that school. And CENTCOM officials and military officials have vowed that there will be accountability. That's what President Trump was asked about yesterday. Will there be accountability? And he said you should ask Pete Hegseth.

[Kristen Welker]

And just big picture, are U.S. troops, U.S. forces expected to stay in the region?

[Courtney Kuby]

So that's one of the big questions out of this memorandum of understanding because there's a specific part that says that the US Will start withdrawing or pushing troops back from the region. It doesn't identify if those are the troops that were moved in for the war, for instance, like the blockade. There's 200 aircraft. There's carrier strike groups, two of them floating around right there. But that's not common. There usually is not that big of a presence there. But there is also a huge number of US Military bases in the region and allied bases where the US Has a presence there. Is that going to the decrease or the pulling back of troops from the region? Will that also move to those bases. We've been asking that question. Secretary Hegseth said this morning that that was something that would be under review.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, speaking of Hegseth, he announced also a review of bases in Europe and he blasted NATO countries that didn't allow the US to use their airspace. Let's take a listen.

[Keir Simmons]

It was shameful.

[T.W. Arihi]

These allies, they put America's sons and

[Kristen Welker]

daughters, our sons and daughters at risk

[T.W. Arihi]

by denying them the predictable access, basing

[Shaquille Brewster]

and overflight that never should have been

[Vice President J.D. Vance]

in question at all.

[Kristen Welker]

So what could the review mean for the military presence in Europe?

[Courtney Kuby]

COURT so the Trump administration and Secretary Hegseth have been putting out this idea for months now, frankly, even before they were in office of the idea of reducing the US Military presence in Europe. There have been these back and forth. You know, oh, they're going to pull troops out of Germany, they're going to increase troops in Poland. It's been all over the place. But the reality is this review is most likely going to lead to a decreased US Military presence in the region that has a lot of allies really concerned because of course, it comes as Ukraine and Russia are still fighting. There are still a lot of concerns, particularly right around Ukraine, that Russia could try to expand the war to those locations, those countries. And we have had multiple comments now from President Trump about that really call into question what kind of military support there would be should a NATO ally be attacked. So again, it's not clear yet, but all signs are pointing to some kind of a decreased US Military presence in Europe. Based off of this review, I know

[Kristen Welker]

you'll track it very closely with all of these entanglements ongoing. Court thank you so much. Great to see you as always. Mel, let me turn to you. What has the reaction been on Capitol Hill to the memorandum?

[Melanie Zenona]

Well, Kristen, there's been a sharp divide not just amongst Democrats and Republicans, but even within the Republican Party itself. On the one hand, there is a lot of relief that the war is over, that gas prices are coming down. So there's a lot of Republicans who are supporting the president, showing deference to the president. But on the other hand, there are a significant number of voices who are expressing concerns that this deal is too deferential to Iran and that it is no better than Obama's Iran deal that the GOP was so critical of. And importantly, it's not just moderate Republicans or members of the so called YOLO caucus who are retiring voicing these concerns. It's also defense hawks and people in the space, and that includes the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Roger Wicker, I want to read you part of his very sharply worded statement. He said, I am concerned that the memorandum of understanding negotiates away the victories of apparition, epic fury in ways that are completely out of step with the president's goals. Specifically, the $300 billion fund for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, though not funded by U.S. taxpayers, would make Iran's payoff under President Obama's 2015 deal look like a pittance by comparison. And Kristen, there was also a lot of frustration on Capitol Hill this week that members were not briefed on the details of this memorandum of understanding. In fact, reporters appeared to get a readout yesterday before senators did. But I will say that MOU has been transmitted to Capitol Hill today and the Senate is expecting to get a briefing on that early next week.

[Kristen Welker]

So that takes me to my next question. How quickly do you think that briefing is going to happen? What do you think the top line questions are going to be there in that briefing?

[Melanie Zenona]

Now, I do think it'll happen rather quickly. Certainly that is what the leadership is asking for. And I think the administration is also eager to get up there and explain itself. But there are a lot of questions members on both sides of the aisle have. One of the things I've heard repeatedly from lawmakers is questions about that $300 billion fund that Roger Wicker referenced. They want to know where the money is from. They want to know whether it's going to be conditioned on Iran's behavior. And then there's also a lot of questions about what comes next because there is still this 60 day period where they're going to negotiate the fate of Iran's nuclear program. And so lawmakers want assurances that it can be achieved in 60 days if there is actually confidence that Iran is willing to give up its nuclear weapons. And if not, what happens next? Is the president willing to return to bombing? So there's just a ton of questions that lawmakers have for the administration right now.

[Kristen Welker]

All right. Well, I know that you're tracking all of those questions for us. Mel Ziona, thanks so much. Great to have you here. Brian, let me turn to you. I want to play a little bit more of what we heard From Vice President J.D. vance today, specifically on the economy, gas prices and oil. Take a look.

[Vice President J.D. Vance]

First of all, I think the president's peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people. Last night, 12.5 million barrels of oil went through the Strait of Hormuz. That is a high since the beginning of the conflict.

[Kristen Welker]

So 12.5 million barrels. How does that compare to what was going through the strait before the war?

[Brian Chung]

Yeah, well, 20 million barrels is how many was going through the strait before the war. So if you do a little bit of the quick back of the napkin map, that's just over 60%. But interestingly, you have some analysts out there that say we don't expect to get back exactly to 100% of pre war levels. You have Goldman Sachs that had a note just earlier this week saying that it's more likely the case that we're going to get back to 70% of pre war capacity through the Strait of Hormuz. And that's because of decreased demand around the world as a result in part of some of the geopolitical uncertainty that's come about as a result of that conflict. So again, it does seem like there's a longer path to getting back to those pre war levels. Everyone I've talked to has spoken about this. It rises very sharply like a rocket when prices go up, but it really falls like a feather. All of which is to say it could take some take some time to get back to pre war levels if we ever do get back there.

[Kristen Welker]

Kristen, and just to be very clear, pre war levels, gas prices had gone above $4 a gallon. The big question has been will they get back into the $3 a gallon range?

[Brian Chung]

Yeah, well, it was $2.98 before this war beginning in terms of the prices that we pay at the pump. It peaked out around $4.50 at about a month ago. It's been falling since then over the optimism that this war would have a resolution. And it seems like now that there is this deal at the straight of Hormuz has reopened those prices which are flirting at $4, it technically was $3.99 and 9.10of a cent according to AAA. So it did fall below $4 for the first time since March. But you have some analysts saying the next stop would likely be 370 around July 4th weekend. That would be welcome news to a lot of people traveling, but again, still about $0.70 above where we were pre war levels.

[Kristen Welker]

All right, Brian Chung, as always, thanks so much for being here. Really appreciate it. And coming up, Moscow blanketed by black smoke today as Ukraine launches one of its biggest drone attacks ever on Russia's capital, setting a major oil refinery ablaze. Plus, all the living former US Presidents coming together in a rare show of unity to celebrate the opening of the Obama presidential Center as former President Barack Obama appears to criticize the one president not just not in attendance without saying his name. You're watching Meet the Press now.

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[Kristen Welker]

Turning now to a significant escalation in the Ukraine war. Ukraine launched one of its largest attacks ever on Moscow, striking an oil refinery on the city's outskirts, sending a fuel storage lid soaring into the air. Huge plumes of black smoke billowed over Moscow for hours today. Moscow's mayor saying nearly 200 drones were part of the assault, which also hit an apartment building near the oil refinery, calling it Ukraine's biggest attack on the capital in two years. Ukraine's President Zelensky defending the strikes in an audio message saying, quote, if Putin does not want to end this war, we will not sit quietly. We will respond. Russia's foreign minister vowing Russia will now conduct massive group strikes against Ukraine on a regular basis. Joining me now is chief international correspondent Kir Simmons in Zurich. Kir, thanks so much for being here. So just how significant was this Attack by Ukraine.

[Keir Simmons]

Well, significant on a number of levels. First of all, the way that you set it out there, Kristen, this is the biggest, largest strike on Russia or series of strikes on Russia by Ukraine since the war began. 200 drones intercepted just targeting Moscow, according to Russian officials. A thousand across Russia. Really a barrage, an onslaught from the Ukrainians. And those videos are really bringing it home to people, even if you don't live in Russia, of course, just those images of all refineries going up in flames, the lid of a silo blowing off as an explosion took place, one drone appearing to be intercepted, but then the debris falling into that oil refinery and causing another explosion and that residential building, that civilian building, the camera attracts that drone and then it hits the building. So a really serious attack that is serious in size and also because of the implications both for Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the US well, and the

[Kristen Welker]

fact that the attack is literally happening on the doorsteps of Moscow. I mean, could this in fact put more pressure on Putin to come to the negotiating table? Kir, how do you see it?

[Keir Simmons]

Well, that's what President Zelensky and the Ukrainian leadership are attempting to do. Interestingly, President Putin wasn't in Moscow when these attacks were carried out. So you could say that the argument towards the Russian leader is we're not trying to target you, but we could certainly it's putting pressure on the Russian economy, on gas supplies for ordinary people, and that is building up tension within the country. And I think that's what the Ukrainians are attempting to do.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, Russia vowing to respond with massive group strikes, effectively striking Ukraine with a number of missiles or drones at one time. Does it have the air power for that kind of attack here?

[Keir Simmons]

Well, it does because one of the aspects of all of this is, of course, that drones have transformed the nature of war. So just think about it. A thousand Ukrainian drones in 24 hours targeting Russia. But we've seen, of course, the Russians targeting Ukraine with large numbers of drones, particularly Iranian style or certainly even Iranian drones, just noting that relationship between Russia and Iran. So Russia can. Yes, I think, Justin, another thing to think about here, and it's sobering to consider, is that it isn't that long ago that the US Was restraining Ukraine from targeting Russia in any substantial sense inside Russian territory. That seems to have passed now. Now the Ukrainians are effectively, from their perspective, doing all they can to try to shift the sense in Russia that they are immune from this war.

[Kristen Welker]

And just finally, Kier, we know that President zelensky at the G7 summit this week telling leaders that Ukraine's strikes inside Russia were actually evidence that Ukraine was turning the tide of the war. Did the other leaders believe that to be the case? How are they viewing this situation?

[Keir Simmons]

Well, they're all watching the front line, Ukraine, which changes in the sense of that Sometimes it appears as if the Russians are making progress or the Ukrainians are making progress. But frankly, Christine, in the end it is incremental. We did hear from President, one of President Putin's advisers, Ushakov, looking at the G7, saying that effectively European leaders are pouring negativity into President Trump's ear, that he's, that they're persuading him in ways, in negative ways, he said. So the Russians don't look, haven't looked on that G7 meeting in any sense in a positive way. But certainly I think that they will be the Europeans. Look, the Europeans are leaning into Ukraine's offensive against Russia, but they will be quite realistic about the potential that either side is going to make substantial progress on the battlefield.

[Kristen Welker]

All right, Keir Simmons covering all of the angles for us. Kir, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Coming up next, we are live in Chicago with the view from the opening ceremony for the Obama Presidential center, including a star studded lineup of celebrity guest performances coming together to mark the moment

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[Kristen Welker]

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[Kristen Welker]

Well, welcome back. It was an emotional and historic day in Chicago with the opening ceremony for the Obama Presidential Center. Former President Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama spoke at the event on the south side of Chicago. Among the 3,000 guests in attendance, every living former president and former First Lady President Trump was not invited. Former President Obama speaking about the need to hold leaders accountable and seemingly criticizing the Trump presidency in his remarks today, but never mentioning the current commander in chief by name.

[T.W. Arihi]

That's why the exhibits here focus not just on policies, but on the shared values that make democracy possible. A belief in the entire intrinsic dignity and worth of all people and that no one is above the law or beneath its protection. A belief in checks and balances in our government and an accountability that comes with an independent judiciary and a robust free press. A belief that our military and law enforcement owe allegiance not to anyone, president or political party, but to the people and our Constitution. A belief in the peaceful transfer of power after the people have spoken in fair and free elections, recognizing that in a large, complicated society like ours, no group or faction gets its way 100% of the time.

[Kristen Welker]

Former First Lady Michelle Obama spoke about her husband's lasting legacy and also appeared to make some bail jabs at President Trump and his notable criticism of President Obama.

[Michelle Obama]

To do it all as a first and the higher standard that comes with all that. The claims that a U.S. senator and constitutional law expert wasn't qualified for the job. The lies about your birthright, your faith, your patriotism. The outrage when you stated the biological fact that if you'd had a son that he too would be black. Yet you were unflappable at every turn. Always focused, always calm, always looking at the long view. You were doing the people's work, rescuing our economy, expanding health care, ending a war, ordering the bin Laden raid, saving an auto industry, winning a peace prize.

[Kristen Welker]

The 19 acre Obama presidential center campus features a museum highlighting key moments from the Obama presidency and a replica of his Oval Office, as well as a branch of the Chicago Public Library, a community garden and a basketball court. The center is not considered considered a presidential library. It's a privately funded complex that cost $850 million, NBC's parent company, Comcast, among the donors. NBC News correspondent Shaquille Brewster joins me from outside the Obama Presidential Center. Shaq, you were there to witness all of this really extraordinary history unfolding there today. Talk about the scene and what you took away from today's ceremony.

[Shaquille Brewster]

Hi there, Kristin. Yeah, there are so many different parts and pieces to the day that we got to witness. There were the celebrations. You heard some of the musical performers that were woven through the entire ceremony celebration, talking about Stevie Wonder, John Legend. You saw Bruce Springsteen. You saw them all together at the end, right after we heard from former President Obama. But this was also a tribute not just to the Obamas, but when you listen to his speech and you heard some of it in that clip that you just played, he wanted this to be a tribute to democracy and democratic values. And I've been able to spend some time in the Obama Center. I've been able to work through the exhibits. And that's a theme that you see throughout that museum. It's not just the focus on the presidency and the campaign and even the movements that led to it, but at each moment on each floor, there's questions for visitors. What impact can you make? And that was a similar theme that you heard heard from former President Obama when he took the stage, that don't use this to just reflect and become nostalgic, but use this as a rallying cry almost for change in the future.

[Idris Calhoun]

Kristen?

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah, talk a little bit more about that, Jack. And the message that we heard from President Obama today, that call to action, that not so subtle contrast that he was trying to build with the current administration.

[Shaquille Brewster]

Absolutely wasn't subtle at all. And I mean, you heard from former first Lady Michelle Obama there when she also did those veiled references, gave those veiled references to the current administration, all while not mentioning the current president, of course, President Trump not invited to this ceremony, to this dedication. I asked Valerie Jarrett, the CEO of the Obama foundation, about why former or current President Trump isn't invited or wasn't invited to this event. She told me that this was for supporters. These were for, for people who had an impact on the Obama campaign and the Obama presidency, but noted that he is invited to come later at a later point to tour the museum, as any member of the public would be able to do once it officially opens to the public tomorrow. But it was a clear message that you heard throughout all the speakers that this museum and the complex that it sits on, the 19.3 acres, they want this to be about the community It's a presidential center. It has his name on it. He is the focus of it. But they want this to be something that the community gets to use. And that's why you have the basketball court and the playground and the grills and all the many features that are here. We're in the garden right now. That's why you have that, because they want this to be a center that integrates itself with the surrounding community.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, I do want to play a little bit more of your interview with Valerie Jarrett, because you ask her, and I think this is an important question, Shaq, you do ask her about some of the criticism the Obamas have been getting for not being out talking about these issues more frequently. Let's play that exchange.

[Shaquille Brewster]

What's your response to those who say, I want to see President Obama, I want to see Mrs. Obama doing more in this moment?

[Valerie Jarrett]

I think I'd like to say, other than what are you doing? As he said in that last speech, this isn't about what he can do. It's what we can all do together. And I think people, people are hungry for his leadership. And what I appreciate about him is his willingness to take a step back and say, I'm now in the role of making room for the next generation of leaders. They shouldn't be looking back to him. They should be looking forward to what they can do.

[Kristen Welker]

Shaq, talk about her response and how you think it'll play with Democrats.

[Shaquille Brewster]

Yeah, look, I think there is a lot of frustration in the Democratic Party at, among some corners of the Democratic Party at former President Barack Obama, folks who say that he is not doing enough in this moment, when many of the things, many of the policies that are being celebrated in the center behind me are being rolled back or have been rolled back by the current administration. And, you know, you heard her response there very quickly saying, look, it's not all on them essentially. It's not all on the former first lady or the former president. It's about the American people. And they want the center to be something that inspires others to act in a way. You know, a theme that you continue to hear throughout is they kind of did their public service. They. You heard from former first lady Michelle Obama talk about the eight years in the crucible, as she described it, and saying that it revealed the character of President Obama. They're saying they kind of done their job. Now let's let future generations continue to do that work.

[Kristen Welker]

All right. Great reporting today. Shaq Brewster, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. And we do have a programming note, you can watch Craig Melvin's one on one interview with former President Barack Obama tomorrow on the Today Show. You don't want to miss that. Coming up after the break, more signs the political winds are blowing in the Democrats direction. The Cook Political report is shifting 7, 7 safe Republican House seats into more competitive categories. We'll tell you which races and why they matter. Stay with us. Welcome back. With less than five months until the midterm election, some good news for Democrats eager to regain control of the House of Representatives. Our friends at the Cook Political Report have moved seven House races in Democrats direction. Three likely Republican seats are now rated as lean Republican and four solid Republican seats have been moved to likely Republican. Joining me now is Erin Covey, House of Representatives editor at the Cook Political Report. Thanks for being here, Erin.

[Erin Covey]

Thanks for having me on.

[Kristen Welker]

Really appreciate it. So walk us through these changes, why the change and how significant are these changes?

[Erin Covey]

Yeah, so all seven of these districts, these are places that have not been particularly competitive in recent years. Four of them were in the solid Republican category, so we shifted them to likely, which doesn't necessarily mean they're going to be super competitive, but it means they have the potential to get there as we get further along into the cycle. The other three that we moved into lean Republican, These are seats, North Carolina's 11th district, Michigan's 4th district, Iowa's 2nd district. The incumbents in these seats won by double digits in 2024. So in a more neutral political environment, these probably would not be close to the center of the battleground. But this cycle they are.

[Kristen Welker]

It really speaks to the momentum that you're seeing. I mean, and we were talking you actually haven't moved ratings in quite some time. So it's significant from that perspective as well.

[Monica Alba]

Yeah.

[Erin Covey]

And I mean, the timing of our ratings can be a little bit erratic. I'll admit that the closer we get to the election, the more we're changing them. Just because we have more internal polling that we're seeing from both parties that they'll share with us. We're also getting more information about the candidates themselves, how strong of a fundraiser they are, how they're doing on the trail. We have a lot more information. Primary results, of course, matter. We've had a couple of interesting primaries that do impact how competitive the general election will be.

[Kristen Welker]

And what do you think Democrats actually have to do in these races where Republicans still have the edge?

[Erin Covey]

Yeah, I mean, it's tough. They're going to need to present themselves to these independent voters who we've seen overwhelmingly are not happy with the way Trump has been leading the country, but they also don't like Democrats. Democrats brand is still in a pretty terrible place. And so these Democrats have to convince that, look, you may not like the national Democratic Party, but here's why you should vote for me. And, you know, if you want to change in the direction of the country, if you want a change in affordability, then you can't stick with the status quo.

[Kristen Welker]

And there are two of the seats are in Iowa and Ohio, where they're also competitive Senate races. Is there a sense that all of this momentum could build on each other?

[Erin Covey]

That's definitely a big factor, particularly I would say, in the Iowa race. There's also a competitive governor's race. Well, that is really spurring Democratic enthusiasm. And that's one thing that Democrats have really benefited from over the last 18 months. We've seen in special elections and the governor's races last year. Democrats are just a lot more motivated to vote right now than Republicans. And if that continues, that bodes poorly for Republicans. Now, Republicans believe that turnout's gonna be higher in the midterm, so the enthusiasm gap will not be quite as big. But it's still something that Republicans are trying to figure out how to navigate.

[Kristen Welker]

And what races do you see as the best chance for Democrats to pick up?

[Erin Covey]

Yeah, I mean, I think they're the most pickup opportunities they have are kind of in the classic places like Pennsylvania's 7th district in the Lehigh Valley. That's a Republican held seat that was previously held by a Democrat. Colorado's 8th district, also seat Republicans flipped last year. Arizona, 6th district. These are all kind of classic swing seats that Trump only won by maybe a point or two or three. And so those are going to be really the first ones that would be most likely to flip. But then you get into these like Trump, 10 seats that are more competitive, but Republicans still have a distinct advantage.

[Kristen Welker]

And what do you think, Aaron, would likely be the deciding factor in terms of big picture, whether Democrats actually are able to win back the House.

[Erin Covey]

Look, I mean, ultimately they have history on their side, and that's because midterm elections are almost always going to be a referendum on the party that's in power, and that's Republicans in this case. So unless Trump's approval rating starts to improve, if gas prices go down, if we start to see that really go up, that could help Republicans a little bit. But they're in a tough position. And so I think just like environmentally, Democrats have a lot on their side, even if people don't like the Democratic Party, they're still more likely to vote for a Democrat than Republicans are to vote for Republicans right now.

[Kristen Welker]

And as you say, we're going to keep our eyes trained on those independent voters who are going to decide a lot of these key races. Erin, thank you so much for being here. Really appreciate the great information. Stay with us. We'll have much more with the panel next.

[T.W. Arihi]

When we lose faith in each other, when we stop believing that voting matters, that citizenship matters, that our collective voices matter, that how we treat each other no longer matters, then we give away our power to decide our own futures. We open the door to the most ruthless or the most careless or the most fearful among us who see some groups and some people as more equal than others and see government as nothing more than a way to divvy up the spoils and punish enemies and keep those who are different in their place. I do not believe that is the story of America that prevails in the end.

[Kristen Welker]

Welcome back. That was former President Obama speaking at the opening of his presidential center in Chicago earlier today. With me to discuss all of this is our panel, Idris Calhoun, Washington bureau chief for the Economist Kendra Barkoff, former press secretary to Vice President Biden and T.W. arihi, Republican strategist and vice president of Push Digital Group. Thanks to all of you for being here. Idris, let's start off with the message that we heard from former President Obama, frankly, from former first Lady Michelle Obama, using their speeches to make this call to action basically against this moment, against Trumpism, without using the current president's name.

[Idris Calhoun]

Yeah. I mean, it's a lot of like what they've sounded like in the DNC and other speeches that they've given. But it's also just a callback to a different era in American politics. Right. You know, when presidents spoke like that, you know, he went out of his way to praise his both of his opponents in the presidential election, Romney and John McCain as well. And really just hearing him speak, you know, seeing all the celebrities come, it just reminds me of reminded you a lot of what politics was like before the Trump era. And it really just felt like a dispatch from the past.

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah, it did. Kendra, what did you make of it? What stood out to you for a lot of these, some of your old colleagues? What stood out to you for the

[Kendra Barkoff]

I think we have forgotten what it's like to actually be presidential. And I think today was a reminder of it's okay to talk about your friends and people you may have disagreed with but to talk about it in a respectful way and in a way that you can have differences but come together in the end to treat each other nicely and fair. And there's a lot of nostalgia going on there. You saw some tears in the audience's eyes. I think at one point the former first lady talked about the Nobel Peace Prize that Obama had won. And there was a little bit of some joking around, but there was no digs. It was not a dig or coming at someone by name.

[Kristen Welker]

TW what do you make of what Kendra's saying and the optics that we saw today, this bipartisan show of force again, kind of from a bygone era to some extent.

[T.W. Arihi]

Yeah, I am a sucker for those sort of things. Would I have liked to have seen President Trump at least invited? Of course I would have. Do I believe that the tenor of our politics has gotten way too nasty and I appreciate eloquence on display? Of course I do. But I would be remiss if I didn't say that I think that it was the Obama years that began driving us apart that gave us Donald Trump and made people feel so viscerally angry at their government.

[Keir Simmons]

I agree.

[T.W. Arihi]

Barack Obama is one of the greatest orators of our time. He seems like a lovely man. I've never had the pleasure to meet him, but I think that there's more to it at the ground level. And while there is so much that is wrong with our politics, it was good today to see President Bush there in joining hands. That sort of thing I think we need more of. And I would have liked to have seen Trump invited.

[Kristen Welker]

Kendra, what about that argument that President Obama part of his promise to this country was to try to bring together people from different factions, different political parties. And of course President Trump followed Obama. He's spoken about that and how that has impacted him. But how do you view that?

[Kendra Barkoff]

I think that President Obama really talked about hope and our future. And I think if you chose to follow that, you felt really good about it. I think you're right. I think that it did start some of the divisions. But that doesn't mean that President Trump has to follow in whatever he claims to be a divisive thing. President Trump clearly has made his own divisiveness. It is worse this go around than it was four years ago. And there's no way you can blame that on President Obama.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, speaking about the comparisons between Obama and Trump, there are a lot of them right now because of the way that President Trump Idris is handling this memorandum of understanding as he winds down the war with Iran. Some of his own Republican colleagues, Idris, saying that this is actually worse than, worse than the Iran nuclear deal that was negotiated under former President Obama. What are you hearing from sources on the Hill?

[Idris Calhoun]

Well, we see that they're angry, right? I mean, a lot of the criticisms of the jcpoa, the Iran nuclear deal, were voiced by Trump himself. Right. He was angry about the fact that Iran would get sanctions relief. Well, this MOU includes immediate sanctions relief on oil. It promises to suspend all sanctions relief whenever a final deal is agreed upon. The nuclear enrichment limits were not set in stone in this memorandum of understanding. They're sort of punted to a later date, unlike the jcpoa. And so, you know, you can just play back a lot of Trump's criticisms against that deal and compare it to this one. And that's why you see a lot of senators like Senator Cruz, Graham, etcetera, You know, saying things like, I find it hard to countenance this, but Trump has such a grip over the party that I don't think that there will be a kind of widespread rebellion over this.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, Vice President J.D. vance has been really the face defending this deal in addition to President Trump. He was in the briefing room today. I want to play a little bit more of what he had to say.

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[Vice President J.D. Vance]

So I guess I would say to anybody, any of the critics is, number one, have a little bit of faith in the President of the United States. The idea that he is going to strike a deal that's been bad for the American people. It's preposterous.

[Kristen Welker]

TW I thought that this was an interesting argument. Have faith in the president, that this is going to be just fine. What do you make of how the administration is selling this deal and the deal itself?

[T.W. Arihi]

Well, I'm going to. I am going to have faith in the President until I see the final deal, because what I have seen thus far is not hitting the mark even remotely. Look, I think, I think Operation Epic Fury and Midnight Hammer that preceded it were great acts of courage that I think were long overdue. However, of the main concerns that we had going into this, I don't understand how the memorandum of understanding addresses it. And not just the money, not just the sanctions relief that's already coming to the front. The $300 billion that we don't exactly know where that's coming from yet or even if that's going to happen. But I want to know about, I want to know about the terrorism links. I want to know about their ballistic we said no enrichment period. Where is that? And it brings up the question of why did we stop when we did? Was it an issue with our munitions? Was it an issue with something else? Why did we stop when we did? And why is this the best pathway forward other than an immediate opening of the straits and hopefully lowering of gas prices? The vice president has a lot of real questions to answer and over the next 60 days, we better get them.

[Kristen Welker]

Kendra, how should Democrats handle this? Because again, this is a 60 day period for further negotiations. Is it not possible that the president does wind up getting that robust deal and all of those things that tws?

[Kendra Barkoff]

Well, I have less faith than you do that actually anything will happen in the next 60 days. And my guess is Democrats will as well. The fact that you've seen so many Republicans, not just people that Trump didn't endorse, but people like Ted Cruz, like Lindsey Graham, who are typically allies of the president, come out and say, I

[Erin Covey]

don't know about this.

[Kendra Barkoff]

Roger Wicker, another one, the chairman of the Armed Services Committee. These are really strong statements. And I think Democrats need to continue to push this talking point that this was the wrong war to get into. Trump made a promise that he wasn't going to get any into any wars to begin with and he got into this one. And look at how Americans have suffered as a result. Gas prices are still up, food supplies are still up, groceries are up. And these are the things they need to talk about going into the midterms.

[Kristen Welker]

Just let's look at some of those, those numbers. Gas Prices dipped below $4 just barely today a gallon. But we did get new poll numbers. And let's look at those. Some of his lowest approval ratings to date on the economy. You see this here, 59% disapprove, 36% approve. And Idris, we say this all of the time. The economy is the top issue. And you see his handling of the economy in 2026 down 27 points here. What do you make of these numbers?

[Idris Calhoun]

Well, it's not the numbers you want to have if you're going into a midterm election. Right. So these are the two things that are going to weigh down the president and his party. The low approval rating, the fact that Democrats are leading the generic congressional ballot, all suggest that they are probably going to take the House. That's what we think based on the current polls. But you know, just in terms of timing, the fact that you launched a war of choice in the Middle east despite saying that voting for Kamala Harris was going to guarantee that war, but then you do it anyway. You then abruptly reverse and it's not clear what's been accomplished as a result of all of this.

[Kristen Welker]

TW final 30 seconds to you. How are Republicans going to see those numbers? How jittery are they going to be?

[T.W. Arihi]

Oh, everyone's jittery. And hopefully now that the strait is reopened and hopefully we make progress with Iran, those numbers continue to trickle down. But make no mistake, I don't like the terms word of war of choice. We had a historic opportunity to strike and take out the leader of Iran who is responsible for the deaths of over 1,000Americans. And I think it took a lot of courage and I think brighter days are ahead.

[Kristen Welker]

All right, guys, well, we'll continue to track it. Appreciate the great conversation. Thanks so much. Idris, Kendra and tw. We are back tomorrow with more Meet the Press now, but before we go, a reminder that I'm hosting a Meet the Moment Live event on Monday, June 29th at City Winery in New York City. My special guest, actress, producer and mental health advocate Taraji P. Henson. Go to meetthepress.com to get tickets and secure your seats. There's more ahead on NBC News now.

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