Meet the Press NOW – March 11

Summary

Meet the Press NOW – March 11, 2026

Host: Kristen Welker (NBC News)
Key Guests: John Bolton, Julie Serkin, Brian Cheung, Keir Simmons, Courtney Kuby, Ryan Nobles, Senator Kevin Kramer
Theme: The intersection of war in Iran, domestic politics, oil prices, and the looming U.S. midterm elections

---

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the repercussions of the U.S.-Iran war, particularly its impact on global oil markets and President Trump’s political standing as he campaigns in key states. The show unpacks the administration’s response to escalating energy prices, diplomatic challenges, and contentious domestic legislation—most notably, the Republican push for the Save America Act and debate over the Senate filibuster—with a mix of frontline reporting, expert analysis, and panel discussion.

---

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. U.S.-Iran War Impact on Oil Prices and Global Markets

[01:11–04:40]

• President Trump is touring Ohio and Kentucky to promote his economic agenda against the backdrop of a spike in oil prices (up 30% since the conflict began 12 days prior).
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) announces an unprecedented release of 400 million barrels of oil from global reserves to combat volatility.
• Security of the Strait of Hormuz is imperiled, with multiple tanker incidents reported, despite U.S. military operations targeting Iranian mine-laying vessels.

Notable Quotes:

• “Oil prices moved higher once again today. They’re now up roughly 30% since the start of the war 12 days ago.” – Kristen Welker [01:29]
• “What we have here is not a shortage of energy in the world. We’ve got a transit problem which is temporary... we're resolving militarily and diplomatically.” – John Bolton [02:04–02:18]
• President Trump to Axios: “There is, practically nothing left to target... Anytime I want it to end, it will end.” [03:31, 07:16]

2. White House Response and Political Messaging

[05:28–08:40]

• Julie Serkin reports from the Trump campaign trail, where supporters express support for the war effort but deep concern over rising fuel and food costs. Many link this issue directly to the President’s electoral prospects.
• Internal administration timelines for the conflict are ambiguous, with conflicting statements and enduring uncertainty.

Quote—Voter sentiment:

• “Gas prices are going up, our food industry is going up, everything is going up and we can’t survive over here.” – Billie Jean Wright, Truck Driver [05:59]

3. Oil Market Analysis & The Effectiveness of the IEA Oil Release

[09:08–11:20]

• Brian Cheung explains that prices at the pump have increased sharply (up to $3.58/gallon average), with the potential to reach $4 if current trends persist.
• Despite the IEA’s announcement, oil prices remained largely unaffected, largely because the actual release is not immediate and the market fears ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

4. Diplomatic Complexity: Russia, China, and Iran

[11:42–15:39]

• Keir Simmons discusses the difficulty in ending the conflict, citing new demands from Iran for security guarantees and an end to U.S. basing in Gulf states.
• The U.S. loosening restrictions on Russian oil, in hopes of stabilizing global markets, may inadvertently benefit Russia and China—both aligning strategically with Iran.

Quotes:

• “What an irony now that the potential way to bring oil prices down might be through Russian oil, through lifting sanctions on Russian oil... Is it strengthening President Putin? Yes, it is.” – Keir Simmons [13:45–14:30]

5. Military and Humanitarian Updates

[16:01–18:29]

• Courtney Kuby notes that U.S. naval escorts for oil tankers haven’t materialized due to the ongoing threat environment.
• Focus has shifted from mine threats to drones and missile capabilities.
• Preliminary intelligence suggests a U.S. strike tragically hit an Iranian elementary school, killing 160 people, raising urgent questions about targeting procedures.

6. John Bolton Interview: Strategy, Objectives, and U.S. Accountability

[21:03–28:38]

• Bolton argues that the administration has not set preconditions for ending the war, stressing regime change as the only satisfactory outcome but not requiring U.S. boots on the ground.
• He sharply criticizes both the administration’s lack of advanced planning (especially for oil market disruption) and its communications strategy.
• On reports of U.S. involvement in the deadly school strike: Bolton calls for full U.S. accountability if confirmed, stating: “That’s what a big country does. What’s a big president does.” [28:35]

---

Domestic Political Angle: The Save America Act, Filibuster Debate, and the Midterms

7. Capitol Hill Showdown Over Voting Legislation

[30:13–40:15]

• President Trump pressures Senate Republicans to abolish the filibuster to pass the Save America Act (voter ID and citizenship requirements).
• Senator John Cornyn, facing a tough Texas primary, reverses his long-held position to align with Trump, though Ryan Nobles and Senator Kevin Kramer agree that the party lacks the votes to do so.
• Debate reveals broader anxieties about institutional norms and the future of Senate rules.

Quote:

• “There is not the appetite to take that dramatic of a step, especially for a piece of legislation like this.” – Ryan Nobles [32:29]

• Senator Kramer stresses the structural importance of the filibuster, even as he supports the Act’s substance: "The filibuster is more important than any one issue that we would vote on or any policy we’d try to change." [37:19]

---

8. Panel Analysis: Economic Messaging, Gas Prices, and Election Consequences

[45:10–55:06]

• Panelists (Idris Calhoun, Kendra Barkoff, Sarah Chamberlain) debate Trump’s ability to balance economic messaging with the impact of war and rising gas prices.
• Both parties are concerned about voter backlash if prices stay high.
• The Texas Senate race emerges as a key 2026 battleground, with intraparty drama over Cornyn and the potential for Democrats to mount a serious challenge.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• John Bolton on U.S. culpability:
  “If in fact this is determined beyond a reasonable doubt, come out and say the United States made a mistake and the United States apologizes. That’s what a big country does. What’s a big president does.” [28:35]

• Senator Kevin Kramer on leaving Iran:
  “If you’re going to pull 90% of the weeds out of your garden, but leave a small portion for weeds, you’re going to have a weedy garden.” [41:08]

• Panelist (Idris Calhoun) on Trump and Iran:
  “Gas prices are up 20% due to the war in Iran, which whatever he says, I think a lot of Americans know was a discretionary choice. And that’s going to be hard for him to defend.” [46:18]

---

Important Segments and Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment & Summary | |----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:11–04:40 | Reporting on oil prices, IEA oil reserve release, and U.S. response to Iran, military actions | | 05:28–08:40 | Julie Serkin interviews Trump supporters; voter reaction to the war and rising costs | | 09:08–11:20 | Brian Cheung breaks down oil market volatility and effects of IEA announcement | | 11:42–15:39 | Keir Simmons discusses Iran’s demands, implications with Russia and China, U.S. sanctions | | 16:01–18:29 | Courtney Kuby on military logistics and accidental school strike | | 21:03–28:38 | Extended interview with John Bolton on war objectives, regime change, strategic planning, and U.S. accountability | | 30:13–40:15 | Coverage of Save America Act, Cornyn’s filibuster flip, Republican divisions, and voting reform politics | | 45:10–55:06 | Panel discussion: economic messaging, political effects of oil/gas prices, Texas Senate race, and midterm predictions |

---

Tone and Style

• The tone throughout is urgent, analytical, and occasionally combative, especially in discussions of political maneuvering and war strategy.
• Speakers frequently switch between news analysis, direct reporting, and informed opinion.
• Voter and expert voices alike convey a sense of anxiety over the tangible effects of conflict on daily life, and the unpredictability of both markets and midterms.

---

Summary Takeaways

• The U.S. war in Iran is driving historic energy market volatility, fueling voter anxiety over cost of living, and upending domestic political calculations.
• Tight coordination or bold messaging by the White House is lacking, with conflicting priorities between ending the war, ensuring regime change, and stabilizing prices.
• Domestically, the Republican Party is facing divisions over how far to bend Senate rules to pass controversial voting legislation—exacerbated by electoral pressures in Texas and beyond.
• Both parties recognize the high political stakes if gas prices remain elevated heading into election season.
• The administration faces mounting pressure to own mistakes and communicate clearly—especially after tragic errors like the elementary school strike.

---

For listeners and readers alike:
This episode vividly illustrates how foreign conflict, energy policy, and election-year politics are now fundamentally intertwined—and how every strategic decision reverberates from Washington to the gas pump to the trenches of legislative battle.

Transcript

[John Bolton]

Lifelock. How can I help?

[Brian Cheung]

The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.

[Kristen Welker]

One in four taxpaying Americans has paid the price of identity fraud.

[Julie Serkin]

What do I do?

[John Bolton]

My refund though.

[Brian Cheung]

I'm freaking out.

[Kristen Welker]

Don't worry.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

I can fix this.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Lifelock fixes identity theft guaranteed and gets

[Kristen Welker]

your money back with up to $3 million in coverage.

[Brian Cheung]

I'm so relieved.

[John Bolton]

No problem. I'll be with you every step of the way.

[Kristen Welker]

One in four was a fraud.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Paying American.

[Kristen Welker]

Not anymore. Save up to 40% your first year.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Visit lifelock.com Specialoffer terms apply.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing.

[Brian Cheung]

You're managing all the things, so why waste time sending important documents the old fashioned way.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Mail and ship when you want, how

[Julie Serkin]

you want with stamps.com print postage on demand 247 and schedule pickups from your office or home. Save up to 90% with automated rate shopping. That's why over 1 million small businesses trust stamps.com go to stamps.com and use

[Brian Cheung]

code podcast to try stamps.com risk free for 60 days.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Welcome to MEET THE PRESS now. I'm Kristen Welker in Washington. President Trump hit the road today, visiting Ohio and Kentucky to tout his economic agenda. He's set to deliver remarks this hour, but it, of course, comes as the administration is trying to contain the economic fallout from the war with Iran, which with fuel prices rising and growing concerns about safety in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane that borders Iran, oil prices moved higher once again today. They're now up roughly 30% since the start of the war 12 days ago. In hopes of easing prices, a group of more than 30 countries who are members of the International Energy Agency, which includes the US announced they will release 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves. It is the largest release in history. Here's Interior Secretary Doug Burgum of that announcement.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, certainly these are the kinds of

[John Bolton]

moments that these reserves are used for,

[Kristen Welker]

because what we have here is not a shortage of energy in the world.

[John Bolton]

We've got a transit problem which is temporary. And when you have a temporary transit

[Kristen Welker]

problem that we're resolving militarily and diplomatically,

[John Bolton]

which we can resolve and will resolve,

[Kristen Welker]

this is the perfect time to think

[John Bolton]

about releasing some of those to take

[Kristen Welker]

some pressure off of the global price.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

But again, we have, as you've seen,

[Kristen Welker]

President Trump's leadership itself is helping to keep prices down all over the world. Right now.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

It comes as transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway which 20% of the world's oil pass through becomes increasingly precarious. According to a British monitoring agency, three ships have been in separate incidents near the strait. Today. President Trump spoke to reporters and downplayed concerns facing tankers in the region. Take a look. Are you talking to CEOs of various

[Kristen Welker]

oil companies, encouraging them to use this straight up corporation?

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Yeah, I think they should.

[Keir Simmons]

I think they should.

[John Bolton]

I think they should use

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

opinion.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Look, we took out just about all of their mind ships in one night. Have they laid any mines in the

[Kristen Welker]

strait of our move?

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

We don't think so. Now the president spoke a second time with reporters this afternoon saying he believes the price of oil will start to come down. It comes as the Pentagon released these new videos saying it has eliminated 16 Iranian mine layers. President Trump this afternoon said the U.S. has knocked out 28 of those vessels. President Trump continuing to tout the overall success of the US Military actions in Iran, telling Axios in a phone interview there is, quote, practically nothing left to target. And quote, anytime I want it to end, it, it will end. NBC's Peter Alexander pressed the president today on what it would take to end the war.

[Ryan Nobles]

What more do you need to do militarily for this operation to end?

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

More of the same and we'll see how that. All right.

[Keir Simmons]

Now they are, they've lost their navy, they've lost their air force.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

They have no anti aircraft apparatus at all. They have no radar. Their leaders are gone

[Keir Simmons]

and we could do a lot worse than one another. We're leaving certain things that if we

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

take them out or we could take them out by this afternoon, in fact,

[Keir Simmons]

within an hour, they literally would never be able to build that country back.

[Ryan Nobles]

Can you declare victory in this war if the supreme leader remains the ayatollah's son?

[Keir Simmons]

I don't want to comment on that.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Those comments coming after Iran's president said today Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtab Al Khamenei has been wounded in the war but is safe. And as Iran says, it is launching its most intense operations since the start of the war. Joining me now to start us off today, NBC News White House correspondent Julie Sirkin, NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Cheung, NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons and NBC News senior national national security correspondent Courtney Kuby. Thanks to all of you for being here. Julie, I want to start with you. You are traveling with the president as he hits the road to talk about the economy. What are your sources telling you about how he plans to balance his talk about affordability with the tough fact that oil prices, gas prices are going up.

[Julie Serkin]

Yeah, especially in this area. I talked to several of his supporters, Kristen. I didn't even have to press them or prompt them on oil and gas. They brought it up themselves. I want you to take a listen. One supporter that I heard from, her name is Billie Jean Wright. She's a truck driver. And this is her take on everything that's going on. Watch this. Do you support what the administration is doing in Iran?

[Brian Cheung]

Yes and no.

[Julie Serkin]

Tell me more about the yes and no.

[Brian Cheung]

I support what's going on, but I doesn't like how it's turning out.

[Julie Serkin]

In what way?

[Brian Cheung]

The gas prices are going up, our food industry is going up, everything is

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

going up and we can't survive over here.

[Julie Serkin]

Now listen, Kristen, this is the president's seventh event focused on the economy, on affordability since early December, his fifth event focused on this subject area this year alone. And that is because the president knows that the midterm elections are around the corner. The economy is something he had the most success on when he ran. And certainly something like oil and gas prices going up is not going to make his base happy. I also want to give you a preview perhaps of other things we expect from the president because the president gave us a preview by posting on Truth Social all morning long about Thomas Massie. He represents this district and there were several in the crowd wearing pins and buttons of his supporter, Ed Gallerin that the president hand picked, who spoke just a couple of minutes ago, who spoke about the war in Iran, spoke about Thomas Massie's record. And it's notable here that so far we've heard from several supporters who still support Massie and the president at the same time. So the president expected to hit on that, Kristen, as well as the SAVE act, the voter ID law that the president has tried to push Senate to pass. That's something he's been posting a lot about and something certainly that's going to come up here today as many of his supporters want to see that pass Congress even though it has a very unrealistic path.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Yeah. It's becoming a critical issue in the midterms, Julie, that's for sure. Let me ask you about something else that we heard President Trump say today. This was to Axios. He told Axios, quote, there is practically nothing left to target in Iran. And he also added that he can end the war anytime he wants. Do you have any idea what the actual timeline is here based on your conversations, Julie?

[Julie Serkin]

Kristen, I don't think anybody around the president knows what the timeline is because if you look at different administration officials, they are saying different things. The president himself, as you pointed out moments ago, called the operation in Iran an excursion. And then when asked about the rise in gas and oil, he then said, well, this is what happens in a war. So the president trying to have it both ways on one hand, knowing it is extremely unpopular, particularly among the people that elected him on no new wars, no foreign intervention, even here. The prayer in this room began for the members of the military. Applause around me as the president arrives in this building, Kristen, for members of the military fighting overseas. So this is a raw issue for the President, but a timeline that remains uncertain. He said in the beginning of this operation it would be four to six weeks. I know on Capitol Hill, members that I talked to, Kristen heard a potentially open ended window, but this is something the president knows he needs to wrap up. And his supporters here that I talked to know that as well. But so far at least most of them supportive of him and these efforts.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Kristen and Julie, as you've been talking, we saw the presidential seal go up on the podium. So we're likely just moments away from hearing from President Trump. Julie Serkin, thank you so much for starting us off. Let me turn now to Brian Chung. So, Brian, let's talk about these gas prices. They're up 20%. Diesel up 25% since the start of the war. Talk about this level of volatility. Can these prices go down as quickly as they went up?

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah, I mean, we heard from the voter that Julie was just talking to that anxiety is already being felt by people that are going to the pump and seeing those prices rise in real time. You can see crude oil prices hovering just south of $90 a barrel right now. But the question is that as long as this conflict in Iran is still going on, there's still the risk that those prices could go even higher from here. So as we pointed out, $3.58, that is the national average right now. But the estimate is that for every $10 a barrel of oil continues to go up, that's another 25 cents per gallon that you and I would face at the pump when we go up to fill up our cars, our trucks, what have you. And for that reason, we already saw barrels of oil Spike to over $100 earlier this week. That is a glimpse into what could be possible and where gas prices here. It's not out of the realm of possibility that gas prices on a national average could hit $4. It depends on the length and the intensity of what's going on in the Middle East.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Kristen, let me ask you about this other really significant news today. The International Energy Agency saying it will release 400 million barrels of oil from its reserves to help ease these prices. Again, this is the largest release that we've seen in history. What impact are you anticipating on global markets?

[Brian Cheung]

Brian?

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah, and there have been this talk in the lead up to this announcement of whether or not the United States might use their strategic petroleum reserv. Countries have their own versions of that, but it was really going to be a coordinated approach by many countries around the world that would have alleviated overall gas prices because of the fact that those barrels of oil at a commodities market level are invoiced and priced at a global level for that reason. That's why the IEA, which has 32 members, including the United States, announcing that they would release 400 million barrels of oil is so significant. But Kristen, what was so interesting that our team noticed was that of barrels of oil in terms of prices did not really budge all that much in the aftermath to this decision. And that's because this is a intention to release 400 million barrels of oil. That does not mean 400 million barrels of oil being released today. So it seems like the issues that are out of the Strait of Hormuz do continue to be a pressure point. Once we actually see those barrels of oil getting sold by individual countries like the United States, that could be the actual trigger point for some of these prices to really go down in markets.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

All right, Brian Chung, thank you so much. Really appreciate that context and perspective. Let's turn now to Care Simmons. So, Kira, let's talk about what we're seeing from Iran launching its most intense operation since the beginning of the war. That's according to Iranian state media, but apparently firing on ships near the Strait of Hormuz. What's the state of play right now?

[Keir Simmons]

Kirk well, just listening to Brian there, Kristen, I think another reason why oil prices didn't come down when the announcement was made by those 33 countries to release such a massive amount of reserves is because I think oil traders don't think that this is going to be over soon. And I'll explain why. Because even as President Trump is saying that he can decide when the war ends, this is a war, it is not entirely in his control. And what the Iranians are effectively now doing is setting out their demands for if President Trump wants it to end. And so, for example, what they are saying to the Gulf countries, like where I am here in the UAE is that they can stop being fired upon if they agree to no longer have US Bases. He is the Iranians are, according to reports, according to Bloomberg, telling intermediaries that if Israel and the United States wants an end to this war, they must agree never to attack Iran again. Now, obviously, those are the kinds of demands that the Trump administration and Israel are not going to agree to. And even here in the United Arab Emirates, a senior diplomat has suggested to me that they wouldn't be prepared to see this war end unless there was a clear agreement, clear clarity that they would no longer be threatened by Iranian missiles. And that gives you a picture, it's diplomatically, but that gives you a picture of, of why this is such a dangerous point now that President Trump may face either having to double down or back out. And how do you back out if the Iranians keep fighting?

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

You lay out the stakes very clearly here. Let me ask you about something that has gotten a lot of attention. The fact that the United States has eased some restrictions on Russian oil exports to help stabilize the energy market. What's the, what are the implications of this here? I mean, obviously, President Trump's trying to end the war in Ukraine. This seems like a gift to Russia

[Keir Simmons]

because it is absolutely right. And the Russians at the same time are reportedly providing intelligence for the Iranians to target U.S. forces, U.S. servicemen and women in bases and U.S. capability and capability across the Gulf. And whether or not the Russians are right to say that's not true, and they've denied it, they certainly have a, they have a security agreement with Iran. So we know, for example, that the Iranians have been providing drones to Russia to use, and we've seen them over the skies of Ukraine to use in the Ukraine war. But what an irony now that the potential way to bring oil prices down might be through Russian oil, through lifting sanctions on Russian oil. And already President Trump has given something like a green light for the, for India to continue buying Russian oil. For President Putin, of course, high oil prices mean more money. And at the same time, the US Is using capability here in this region of the Middle east that the Europeans might have been hoping to buy in order to send Ukraine to help Ukraine defend itself. So is it strengthening President Putin? Yes, it is. And China, too, Kristen, we were talking to a company that studies the Straits of Hormuz and being told by them that the relatively small number of ships that are getting through are Iranian ships that are taking their oil straight to China. So for China, which gets most of its oil from this region and is really going to be challenged by closing the Straits of Hormuz, it's Iran that is their ally that is going to be trying to help them, even while continuing to bear down on the Gulf and on the US And Israel.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

And those are some of the key questions. How are the United States adversaries potentially being impacted or even bolstered during this war? Kier, thank you so much for your great reporting. As always, please stay safe. We really appreciate it. Courtney, let me turn to you now. The president has promised escorts for tankers moving through Strait of Hormuz. How has that panned out? Is that working?

[Brian Cheung]

So far it hasn't panned out at all as far as we know. I just checked in to make sure we haven't. There's no indications that any US Navy ships have been involved in any escorts. There are other countries in the region that they could decide to do something, but at this point we're not aware of it. And part of that, there's two main reasons. The first one is the ships that are there are actually actively still involved in this war, both in the offensive and the defensive component of the war. But it's not just that. There is still a very real threat to any ship in the region, not just the civilians, but the Navy ships. It's not the mines. The mines, of course, are always a concern, but the real threat of the drones and US Navy, these ships, they have a tough time defending against those a swarm of drones as well. So it's dangerous for the US to be involved right now.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Well, and US Central Command, speaking of the mine laying ships, says it's eliminated 16 Iranian mine laying boats. What are the implications of that? What are you hearing about that?

[Brian Cheung]

Yeah, so it's the mines were not an immediate threat is the way it was explained to us. It's the immediate threats were the air defense systems, then the missiles, the missile launchers, the ballistic missile program, all of that. The drones. The drones is sort of one of the major focuses right now. The tens of thousands of drones, the production facilities, all of that, the mines, it was sort of, they got to a point where they could start taking out the mines right now. They were not an immediate threat because they take time to put together and they were watching the boats anywhere that they would use to lay them.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

So. And Courtney, you have new reporting about the strike that hit the Iranian school. 160 people killed, mostly children in elementary school. What are you learning today?

[Brian Cheung]

We had been hearing already that the preliminary investigation results were showing that the US Was likely behind this. We've all seen the video of the Tomahawk. No one is disputing that. The real question was how could this have happened if in fact there is real evidence that it was the United States military that did this? And it does appear now that according to the preliminary findings that there was old intelligence that was being used here. And keep in mind, when the military puts together a target package like this, they'll get information from multiple different places. The Defense Intelligence Agency is one, US Allies is another. And then they'll sort of aggregate that together. They'll verify the target and then they will strike. So the real question now is how was that target validated? We know that the school is at an area where there used to be an Iranian military base. And that may have played into this. What ended up being such a tragic event?

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Well, I know the president was asked about this today, said he hadn't, wasn't aware of the latest reporting. So we'll wait to see what type of reaction we hear from him. Courtney Kuby, thank you so much. We really appreciate it. Thanks for being here. Coming up, as we mentioned, President Trump is expected to speak in Kentucky moments from now as he takes his message on the road for the first time since the start of the war against Iran. We'll bring you any news from that event when it happens. But first, President Trump's former national security adviser, who himself was targeted by Tehran in a murder for hire plot, weighs in on the future of the Middle east conflict and the administration's objectives in Iran. John Bolton joins me in studio. That's next on MEET THE press. Now.

[Ryan Nobles]

The world of business is constantly evolving

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

and Comcast business keeps you totally in step with secure AI backed networking in more than 100 countries.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

They're powering over 90% of the Fortune

[Keir Simmons]

500 and millions of small businesses. That's a lot of muscle.

[Ryan Nobles]

And behind it all, thousands of experts

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

answering your call at 2am like it's

[Ryan Nobles]

2pm One partner powering how business gets

[Keir Simmons]

done for companies around the globe.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

When you add it all up, no

[Keir Simmons]

one does business like Comcast Business.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Not sure if you have the experience to start your dream job.

[Julie Serkin]

Good news, these days, it's the skills that count.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Udemy can help you get those in demand. Skills. Want to be an AI mastermind? Learn with us Game developer.

[Julie Serkin]

We've got you covered. AWS certified Cloud practitioner. We can help you prep.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

You'll learn from real world experts who love what they do so that you can love what you do.

[Julie Serkin]

Go to udemy.com for the skills to get you started.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

And get set for your dream job. Stay informed with the NBC News app.

[Keir Simmons]

Breaking news just coming in moments ago.

[Brian Cheung]

Watch, read and listen throughout your day. And now unlock even more with a subscription.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

It's the best of NBC News with fewer ad interruptions, including ad free articles, podcasts and full NBC News shows, plus

[Brian Cheung]

deeper access and exclusive content.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Let's just take a step back.

[Brian Cheung]

It's more context and clarity from the reporters you trust.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Download the NBC News app now and subscribe for more. Welcome back. Joining me now is former Trump national security adviser and the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton. Ambassador Bolton, thank you so much for being here.

[John Bolton]

Glad to be with you.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

It's wonderful to have you here. I want to start off by getting your reaction to what we're hearing from President Trump today, who told Axios the war with Iran will end, quote, soon, and saying, anytime I want it to end, it will end. Can the president just walk away from the war in Iran at this point?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think he believes he can walk away from it. And I think to do so now without achieving regime change, without really setting the preconditions for it or finishing the job on the nuclear program, the ballistic missile program, their terrorist capabilities, the Quds Force, which threatens Israel and the Gulf Arab states. I think this is Trump trying to move in the direction of ending this to avoid political downside at home. He should have thought about that before he started the war.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Now we should say, you've historically supported military action in Iran. How do you think he can bring about regime change? Would it require boots on the ground? That's one of the big questions and frankly concerns a lot of Americans.

[John Bolton]

Yeah, it would not require boots on the ground. What this should be doing is destroying the state institutions like the Revolutionary Guard, the Quds Force, the Basiji Militia, that have the capability of threatening us, threatening Israel and the Gulf Arabs, threatening the people of Iran. And by diminishing those state institutions, you destabilize the government. You permit fractures to occur among the leadership. We've already fractured a lot of it by killing nearly 500 of the top leaders. This should allow the opposition, if we are working and cooperating with them, to begin to find others in the regime who say this ship is going down. I don't think I want to go down with it. People in the regular military, not the Revolutionary Guard, that continues the fracturing of the regime which then collapses. That's not what we're doing. That's what people inside Iran would do.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Let me ask you, though, because there is A new leader in place, the son of the supreme leader. President Trump was asked about that today, didn't directly comment. Is that regime change? Is that enough? Or could it be setting up a situation that's even worse than the former leader?

[John Bolton]

By everything we know about the son, Mojtab Ahomeni, he's worse than his father, more hardline. And indeed, most observers would say the younger generation of ayatollahs are even more hardline than the people who brought us the revolution in 79. This is not regime change. Regime change in the context of Iran means the end of the rule of the ayatollahs and the elimination of the Revolutionary Guard. And that's just not going to come by one change of personnel.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

I want to play you something that Speaker Mike Johnson had to say and get your reaction on the other side talking about nation building. Take a look.

[John Bolton]

We are the defenders of freedom and liberty and freedom loving people all around the world benefit from a strong America.

[Kristen Welker]

These are undisputed, objective facts.

[John Bolton]

Does that mean that we should be intervening everywhere around the world and nation building and doing all these other endeavors? No, because we don't have the resources or the appetite to do that.

[Kristen Welker]

That's not our responsibility.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

What do you make of what the speaker is saying? Does he have a point that there's just no appetite in the US for nation building?

[John Bolton]

Well, there are two points here. One is intervention to affect the government of a country that we consider hostile to us. That's what we're doing now. The second is the nation building part. I have never been in favor of that. That's why I'm not a neoconservative. I want to destro destroy this regime because it threatens America through its pursuit of nuclear weapons and its pursuit of international terrorism. That is a legitimate objective for us. Then I think we look to the Iranian people to decide what comes next. Now, in terms of not having an appetite, this is Donald Trump's self inflicted wound. He announced this war to the people in a speech at 2:30 on Saturday morning when not many people were watching. Properly done, a president leads the people, makes the case in advance. What I think is the compelling case for regime change in Iran doesn't mean revealing what we're going to do or when we're going to do it. It means making the broad policy case. Where's the speech from the president? Sitting at the Resolute desk at the oval office at 9 o' clock at night saying I want to speak to the American people about a serious issue and Many other things he could have done to prepare. He didn't. He didn't prepare the people. He didn't prepare Congress. He didn't prepare the allies.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Do you think that he needs to do that at this point? You know that he's been talking to reporters on the telephone. He has taken questions fairly consistently. Is that enough in the wake this military action, Ambassador?

[John Bolton]

I don't think it's nearly enough. I think this is very serious business when you commit American forces into combat like this. We have very good reasons. He has not made that case. He can still do it, but time is running out.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Let me ask you about the Strait of Hormuz, which has obviously become a critical part of this war. You've said the administration didn't do enough planning in advance, economically, politically, militarily. What exactly does that mean, Ambassador? What should the Trump administration have done?

[John Bolton]

Well, should have realized that beginning a war in a region of the world that produces 20% of the world's oil supply is going to have an effect on oil prices. There's reporting the White House was taken aback by it. Surprised, I have to say. I'm surprised that they're surprised. And doing what you need to do to ensure the Strait stays open should have been part of the early priorities in the war. Just as we were striking their ballistic missile capacity, striking at their retaliatory capabilities. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz was a retaliatory capability. We should have gone earlier to prevent them from doing that.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Couple more questions for you. The administration has eased some sanctions on Russia as a part of this overall goal to lower oil prices. What do you make of that? And is it effectively rewarding Russia for bad behavior?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think they drank a lot of vodka in the Kremlin when they heard that news. This is an absolute gift to the Russians. Obviously, you want to do what you can to bring the price of oil down. Giving a gift to the Kremlin? Wrong answer.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

What do you make of the news today that they are going to release 400 million barrels of oil?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think that's an appropriate step at a time like this. That's what strategic petroleum reserves are for. Whether it has a real impact or not, I don't know. It sounds to me like a stopgap, last ditch date method. They hadn't prepared for it in advance. And that's part of the problem. You do contingency thinking and planning when you begin a war. The world's oil supply should have been near the top of the list of things to worry About? There's no evidence they did that.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

I have to ask you about this report that there is evidence that it was the United States behind that attack on an elementary school in Iran. You heard me talking about that with my colleague, Courtney Kuby killed 160 people, including many children. President Trump has not yet commented or responded. He said he's not aware of the reporting. What should the reaction be from the administration if it is definitively confirmed that this was the United States?

[John Bolton]

This was a tragedy. But there is no way anybody could believe we deliberately targeted that school. It could be, for example, that that building had been used as part of the naval base years before and given over to the locality to be a school. And it didn't register in our intelligence. Whatever the reason, we should do our best to find it, to say it was not deliberate. We apologize.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

So, to be very clear, should the president come out, if in fact this is determined beyond a reasonable doubt, come out and say the United States made a mistake and the United States apologizes.

[John Bolton]

That's what a big country does. What's a big president does.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Okay. Ambassador John Bolton, thank you so much for being here.

[John Bolton]

Thank you.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

We really appreciate it. Coming up next, filibuster, flip, flop. New reporting on a major reversal from Republican Senator John Cornyn and how his Republican colleagues are responding as President Trump pushes his party to throw out the old rule book and pass his voting reform agenda. Right now, we're live on Capitol Hill. That's next on Meet the Press.

[Kristen Welker]

Now,

[John Bolton]

Lifelock, how can I help?

[Brian Cheung]

The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.

[Kristen Welker]

One in four tax paying American has paid the price of identity fraud.

[Julie Serkin]

What do I do?

[John Bolton]

My refund, though.

[Brian Cheung]

I'm freaking out.

[Kristen Welker]

Don't worry, I can fix this.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Lifelock fixes identity theft, guaranteed, and gets

[Kristen Welker]

your money back with up to $3 million in coverage.

[Brian Cheung]

I'm so relieved.

[John Bolton]

No problem. I'll be with you every step of the way.

[Kristen Welker]

One in four was a fraud paying American. Not anymore. Save up to 40% your first year.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Visit lifelock.com Specialoffer terms apply.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Your country's in big trouble.

[Kristen Welker]

The world is a pretty confusing place right now. How long have you known about Andre?

[Keir Simmons]

You're an ecstasy.

[Kristen Welker]

I'm Neil Patterson, and after 20 years reporting and presenting for Sky News, one thing's become clear. People don't just want to know what's happened. They want to know why. Our new daily podcast takes one story at a time. Explains what's really going on and why. You need to know.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

This is why?

[Kristen Welker]

Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Welcome back. A showdown is brewing on Capitol Hill over the Save America act, the Republican backed legislation requiring voter ID and proof of citizenship to register to vote. President Trump has given Republicans an ultimatum, pass the act or he won't sign any new legislation. Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he doesn't have the votes to pass it in the Senate. But the president's pressure seems to be reaching some vulnerable Republicans. Senator John Cornyn, who is locked in a competitive primary runoff race in Texas and has been waiting for the president's endorsement, wrote in op ed overnight saying after years of defending the Senate's 60 vote filibuster rule, he is now siding with the president who wants to change the rules to get this bill passed. Senator Cornyn blaming Democrats, writing, quote, I believe the Democrats with their votes and statements have already dealt the filibuster a fatal blow. The Senate rules will change eventually whether Republicans like it or not. Democrats started this fight. Now Republicans should finish it. Joining me now is NBC News chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles. Ryan, thanks so much for being here. So put this all into context for us. Just how significant is this shift from the senator?

[Ryan Nobles]

I think it's very significant, Kristen, and I think it demonstrates the kind of heat that John Cornyn is facing in this Republican primary in Texas. And make no mistake, this is about the process. It's not about the underlying policy, the Savings act or the Save America Act. Whichever version of this bill that comes to the Senate floor will definitely get at least 51 Republican votes. The issue is whether or not it's worth blowing up the filibuster over and then setting a precedent that could come back to haunt Republicans in the future. And there simply aren't 51 Republicans that are willing to take that step of getting rid of the filibuster. For a long time, John Cornyn was in that camp, argued that if you got rid of the filibuster and Democrats, Democrats took the majority, they could do things like pack the Supreme Court. Things are a lot different now that he is in this heated primary. And our Brendan Leach pressed him on it today and this is how he responded.

[Brian Cheung]

What would you say to those who say you just change your mind to win the president's endorsement?

[John Bolton]

I'd say that's not true.

[Brian Cheung]

You also said that if I think

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

we're through, go ahead, go away.

[Ryan Nobles]

Obviously not something that he wanted to talk about throughout the day. We have subsequently pressed him a little bit more on this. And while he told Brennan that he didn't care or wasn't about winning the president's endorsement. He said today that he hoped the president saw it and this president appreciated it, which I guess is not an explicit quid pro quo. But there's certainly something to be said about the position that he finds himself in now. At the end of the day, though, Kristen, I think it's important to point out there is no realistic path to blowing up the filibuster at this point. You may not get 30 Republican senators to tell you on the record that they're opposed to passing the filibuster or getting rid of the filibuster. But I can tell you from my own reporting, there is just not the appetite to take that dramatic of a step, especially for a piece of legislation like this.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Yeah, it always comes down to the votes and it's always uphill once you start counting them when it comes to changing the filibuster. President Trump reacted to Leader Thune saying he doesn't have the votes to pass the Save America Act. I'm going to in plug Ryan. Get your reaction on the other side. Take a look. He's got to be a leader. You know, he's a leader. He's got to get him.

[Keir Simmons]

It's the most popular bill I've ever

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

seen put before Congress. So how exactly do you see this all playing out? Ryan?

[Ryan Nobles]

Well, it's interesting that the president said that today because two days ago at Doral in Florida, he told me that he knew that it was going to require Democrat votes in order to pass it, ostensibly admitting that there was no path to passing the SAVE act by blowing up the filibuster. And there's just no way that Democrats are going to support this legislation as it currently stands right now. I think this is going to continue to be a stalemate. There is the real possibility, the likelihood that the Republican leadership will put it on the floor next week, if anything to force Democrats into a position where they vote no on something like requiring a photo ID when you come come to vote. But at the end of the day, I think there is a lot of misinformation that's being spread on the Internet about the feasibility of this legislation passing, many of it being peddled by some of the president's strongest supporters. And I think giving a false hope to rank and file Republicans who think that this bill could actually become law in the near future at this point is just not feasible. Kristen.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

All right, Ryan Nobles, thank you so much for your reporting. Appreciate it. Joining me now is Republican senator from North Dakota, Kevin Kramer. Senator Kramer, thank you so much for joining me. Really appreciate it.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

My pleasure. Thank you.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

So I want to start off by getting your reaction to Senator Cornyn, his op ed, saying he will now support whatever changes to Senate rules are necessary to pass the Save America Act. What do you make of his change in position? He was initially opposed to getting rid of the filibuster.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Well, one of the great things about our system of governance, self governance, is that we listen carefully to our constituents and come every six years. If you want to run for reelection, you are all the more attentive. But one of the other great things about the United States Senate is that we have six year terms and only a third of us are up every two years. And that's by design so that we can look out for the country, look out for the institutions that govern this country and that preserve this country. And coming from a small state like I do, where we have two senators, just like Texas has two senators, but we don't have 60 House members, protecting the power of the Senate is really, really important. So we all come from different places, different perspectives. At the end of the day, I think Ryan's reporting is right on point. There are not the votes to blow up the filibuster.

[Brian Cheung]

Yeah.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

And you have long expressed your opposition to blowing up the filibuster for the argument that you just made because you think it's important to represent a state like North Dakota. Let me read you something that you said back when Democrats were talking about this in 2022, when they wanted to change it potentially over the Voting Rights act. You said the Democrats have created a fake crisis. These attempts to undermine the integrity of the US Senate are purely designed to tilt the scales in Democrats favor for future election. Do you see Republicans now doing the same thing, Senator?

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

I think presidents, when they have the opportunity with the majority of their party in the Senate, they'd like to talk about getting rid of the filibuster to advance their agenda. Completely understandable. Presidents are presidents. But what's special about the United States Senate, as I've just said, is the fact that we represent states and small states have equal representation. And to give up that power doesn't make any sense. And by the way, remember, Democrats tried to do this just a couple of years ago to that quote, to do of all things, federalize elections. And now we're trying to do the same thing. And I support the Save America Act. I'm a co sponsor of the Save America Act. I think the principles embedded in it make all of the sense in the world and they're all the principles that the state of North Dakota has, has in our elections in the state of North Dakota. And more states ought to do that. But. But the filibuster is more important than any one issue that we would vote on or any policy we'd try to change.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Well, let me read you what President Trump said earlier this week. He told at a Florida retreat House Republicans on Monday that if the Save America act passes, quote, democrats probably won't win an election for 50 years and maybe longer. Do you think the President's message actually undermines getting the bill passed and the goal of the overall bill?

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Well, it certainly wouldn't have inspired any Democrats to vote for the bill if that was his goal, but I'm pretty sure that probably wasn't his goal. Having said that, I'm not even sure that that statement would actually be the outcome. Perhaps it would help. But I think the thing that I keep going back to is in North Dakota, for example, we've just become more and more Republican with every election. In California, they've become more and more Democratic with every election. It's a big diverse country that goes through various cycles and I just think it's the greatest experiment in the world. And I don't really see any reason why we would manipulate this way. I do think, I think it's insane that people shouldn't have to show an ID to vote when they have to show an id, do a whole bunch of other things. But if California wants to run itself that way, that's, I suppose, up to them. I would vote for the Save America Act. I wouldn't blow up the filibuster to do it.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

So you support the Save America Act? The President has added on new provisions to the bill, including what he has said, no men and women's sports, no gender affirming, care for minors. Do you support those amendments? What do they have to do with voting?

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Well, one of the things that that does do is it does add other issues that probably attract, maybe they attract some more votes, but it probably distracts as many as it would attract. I support all of those principles. Again, I would vote for the bill with those amendments in them. I'd vote for the bill without those amendments in them. There's nothing in there that's a poison pill to me personally. However, the goal of legislating is to pass bills and so if it adds value to the bill, great. If it doesn't, that's fine as well. I just think that at this point. There's not a chance that this bill is going to pass. I'm happy to vote on it. I'm happy to get everybody on the record on it, like I said. Well, I get. I. By the way, Kristen, I welcome a talking filibuster. And I told the whip that last night, if, if you want to keep us here for two, three, four months, holding up the Senate floor on this one issue because it's that important, you know, I'll participate. I don't think it'll have a great outcome or be productive for the United States Senate, but I'd be, I'd be willing to do it. I just don't think there are enough people that are willing to do that either.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

I want to turn to Iran now, President Trump saying he can leave whenever he deems that it's an appropriate time. This is what your colleague, Senator Josh Hawley had to say about the war yesterday. Take a look.

[Kristen Welker]

We have totally destroyed forever their nuclear program. We have destroyed their ballistic missiles. We have destroyed their navy. It's been astounding, it's been historic. And now it's time to declare victory.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Do you think it is time to get out of Iran, or do you agree with the argument Ambassador Bolton was making, which is that if the United States leaves before there's actual regime change, the outcome would be worse than if it hadn't gone in at all.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

So, Kristen, I would find a position somewhere between those two, to be honest with you. I do think if you're going to pull 90% of the weeds out of your garden, but leave a small portion for weeds, you're going to have a weedy garden. And I think that that's, you know, that's what would happen if we were to leave. Now. I do think that, to Ambassador Bolton's point, and by the way, great interview, you know, we have to destroy the institutions that support the regime. I don't think we can determine who should be elected in a free country, because that's what we want to accomplish, is a free Iran. That's up to the people. But I do think destroying more of the institutions is paramount. And frankly, the last 10% is the whole hardest 10% to get on the one hand. On the other hand, it does provide us now with our superior weapons, the bigger bombs, the gravity bombs, to destroy other institutions, other installations that we can identify, along with, of course, our friends in Israel. We've already created an environment for change in Iran. But I'd hate to see us leave a week early only to leave the regime in charge and at the end of the day, not accomplished as much as we could by staying another week or whatever it takes to, to, to make sure that, that the people have their decision to make, not us making

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

it for them very quickly. As you know, there is a lot of concern inside the administration, Republican circles about the fact that gas prices are going up, the disruption to global markets. Do you think the president has it in him to continue to watch these gas and oil prices go up and stay in Iran to finish the job, or do you think the political cost could ultimately be too crazy? Great.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

Well, obviously the geopolitics of it to include the economic politics of it are part of the calculation, although the one thing we have going for us now is that we are producing more oil in the United States than we ever have. And I think there's even more opportunity to do that. I think we need to refine more of our oil here in the United States and have refineries capable of doing that. But that's a longer term plan. But I think we ought to be about that so that we are truly not just dominant, not just secure energy wise, but we're actually independent. In other words, we don't need the oil from other places to affect our prices and we become the price maker instead of the price taker. Having said that, using some of the reserves, I suppose could be helpful. Maybe there are some other things that we can do. But I'm not worried about the moment, frankly. I think this spike is understandable, but I also think that in the long run, it is worth whatever the price is, is in in the next short to midterm.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

All right. Senator Kevin Kramer, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

My pleasure. Thank you, Kristen.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

And coming up, what happens when 17 candidates from four different parties all compete on the same ballot in a special election? We'll tell you next. You're watching MEET THE PRESS now. Welcome back. If it's Wednesday, we have election results. In that Georgia special election to replace former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican Clay Fuller and Democrat Sean Harris are advancing to an April runoff after a very crowded field led to no case candidate receiving above 50%. Fuller clearly benefited from Trump's endorsement coming in more than points ahead of his next closest Republican on the ballot. And while the many, many candidates on the ballot led to Democrat Sean Harris getting the most votes of the night, this is a solidly Republican district. President Trump carried it by 37 percentage points in 2024. And Fuller is already expressing confidence, confidence that he will emerge victorious in the runoff.

[Kristen Welker]

I would describe this as an outright win where we know that the endorsement from President Trump made a difference in this race and we're going to go and win it. I think it's time that the Republican vote unites and gets a representative to Capitol Hill as soon as possible.

[Ryan Nobles]

But this is a win.

[Kristen Welker]

This is an absolute win.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

We'll see how it all shakes out. And we want to now take you to a live look. Pictures here of the president delivering remarks in Kentucky, looking to defend his economic agenda even as the Iran war has cast new uncertainty on oil and gas prices, which are major factors when it comes to issues tied to inflation and the cost of living, two areas the president is struggling with with voters. According to our latest NBC News poll, you see 36% approve of his handling of inflation, the cost of living, 62% disapprove. Joining me now is our panel, Jeez Calhoun, staff writer at the Atlanta Kendra Barkoff, former spokesperson to then Vice President Joe Biden and managing director at skdk, and Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership. Thanks to all of you for being here. Idris, let me start with you. Let's talk about this economic message, because here the president is trying to sell his message on the economy, his agenda on the economy, and yet oil prices are going up, gas prices are going up. How does he straddle that line effectively?

[Kristen Welker]

I don't know that he can that easily. Gas prices, as you know, are up 20% due to the war in Iran, which whatever he says, I think a lot of Americans know was a discretionary choice. And that's going to be hard for him to defend. It's going to be hard. It puts his Republican colleagues in a difficult place as well, given all of their campaigning in 2024. That actually the reason they needed to vote for Republicans was that Kamala Harris would lead America into war with Iran. So I think he set himself up for, for a difficult balancing position. I think that the intention of this visit was to go and make some noise in the Thomas Massie congressional race. Right. The longtime kind of gadfly, although he's a Republican for Trump, you know, he's endorsed his primary opponent and he's campaigning and speaking right now in his district. So I think that was the intention. But maybe we can hear from him. But he's trying to also make an economic pitch. I as well.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

So, Sarah, if you were advising President Trump, what would your advice be? I mean, he just is talking about how challenging it is quite frankly, to walk that line right now. What should he say?

[Brian Cheung]

He should be talking about the big beautiful bill, and all the good things are in that bill. I mean, and it goes from taxes, no taxes on overtime and tips. But we have not messenger that well. So we have to go back and do that. The New York members are doing a lot of messaging and so on. It's tax time. People are getting their tax bills lowered. They're thrilled about that. But we have to talk about the economy and economic issues. I mean, we've not done a good job at that yet.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

And the president is talking about apparently, the big beautiful bill as we're having this conversation. Your point is he needs to stay laser focused.

[Brian Cheung]

Absolutely.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

On it. Kendra, it's actually tricky to some extent, potentially for Democrats, too. How should they message without looking like they're cheering for high gas prices and high oil prices?

[Brian Cheung]

I think they need to keep. Keep talking about what they are, what Americans are seeing at the gas pump. They are, Americans are going there. They are seeing their gas dramatically higher than even it was yesterday. I think it's now at $3.58 a gallon. That is up from yesterday. They're still going to the grocery store and seeing their prices that are still higher from then in some ways than when Trump took office. And so Democrats need to keep talking about affordability and how that is a big issue and how apparently, you know, Trump was voted in to have an effect on that, and it's just not doing anything.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Well, Idris, you know, when I was talking to our guest today about the idea that this is one of the factors that is contributing to President Trump's calculus on when and whether he wants to get out of Iran. He told Axios today he can get out whenever he wants. John Bolton says that's a little bit of an oversimplification. What are folks inside the White House, close to the White House, saying about. About the pressure that the president's feeling?

[Kristen Welker]

Well, we can just see the actions that he's taken, the way that the Secretary of Energy put out this tweet saying that the US Navy was escorting a tanker that caused the oil price to surge. Ten minutes later, the White House says, no, no, no, no, no. That was a staffer who put that out inadvertently. So clearly that's the thing that he cares about. You know, American voters historically don't bother that much with foreign policy. Those decisions don't really affect us because we're insulin with oceans. The only exceptions are when American soldiers die in large numbers and when, you know, Prices increase. And you know, unfortunately a few soldiers have died already. If that remains limited, maybe that won't have as much of an effect as it did with the Iraq war. But these oil prices and grocery prices, which will also increase as well, those might be things that people respond to.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

You know, Sarah, it's interesting because President Trump said, I was actually expecting gas prices to be even higher. And yet all of the reporting suggests the administration, administration was caught off guard. How much concern and consternation is there inside Republican circles about these prices?

[Brian Cheung]

There's a lot of concern because the majority of the minority will come through through public and Main street partnership. So they're down there. They were headed the retreat this past week, earlier this week, they're talking about that with him. But our polling shows he's got about six weeks at this gas prices before it becomes a real crisis. Because what people are saying is, you know what? We would like to see peace in the Middle East. Middle east, it's been probably all of us hasn't been in our lifetime and they would like to very much see that. So short term pain for long term gain they're willing to do. But as I said, it's for only a few more weeks.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Kendra, what about that argument that Sarah makes that long term gain, that if this does in fact lead to more stability in the Middle east and of course we don't know what it's going to lead to. It's a big question mark at this point.

[Brian Cheung]

Again, I turn back to the prices and what Americans are seeing when they're going to pay. And you even have had Rand Paul out there saying this could be detrimental or something along those lines to the election. The midterms are coming up. It's actually not that far away. And Americans are starting to pay attention to who's running. We're in primary season right now and they're going to start to think about who do I want to vote for come this fall when I'm still seeing these prices really high.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

So Idris Kendra takes me to my next topic, which is the midterms. One of the biggest races we're watching in Texas Senate Senator John Cornyn out with an op ed saying after opposing getting rid of the filibuster, he would now support it for the SAVE Act. He places the blame on Democrats, but he's clearly looking for that endorsement from President Trump. By all accounts, it looked like it was coming and then it seems like the pause button has been hit. We know Ken Paxton came out with that tweet that he would consider dropping out of the race if the SAVE act was passed, which is Ryan Nobles laid out earlier in the broadcast. It's a very, very, very steep climb to get it past.

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah, yeah. Cornyn has a sword of Damocles hanging over him, so he is having to reverse a long standing position. You know, he's doing, you know, the best he can, but I think it's obvious to everyone what's motivating his actions. And, you know, the president is, you know, a lot of senators were worried that he was going to endorse Paxton. I think they thought that they would just keep him at neutrality and they would be okay with that. And then suddenly there came the idea, oh, he might actually endorse Senator Cornyn, which would give them the best chance of keeping the Texas Senate race. I think everyone would agree on that. But now the president, you know, is his own man and makes up his own decisions.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Sarah. So I'm told he's being shown data which proves exactly what Idris is talking about, which is that Senator John Corby Cornyn is far and away the strongest general election candidate. But there's other data being presented to him that Cornyn is just not where the base is. And that's, quite frankly, been the dilemma all along.

[Brian Cheung]

Well, he came out first in the primary, so clearly a lot of the base is with him. And I think this is a calculator. He knows there's not enough senators to do this, so he's throwing, I think, President Trump like a bone here to say, listen, I'm willing now to change. But we all know a lot of senators. You just interviewed one who said they're not willing to change the filibuster. So I think this is a good place for Cornyn to be.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

But do you think the endorsement's coming, Sarah?

[Brian Cheung]

I hope so, because as we were talking out in the Green Room, very concerned about the Democratic candidate. The Democrats got the right candidate through. She would have been easy to beat. He is a different matter.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

So let's talk about that. How do you think State Representative Talarico is doing in his campaign? He's got a wide open field because he's in the general election and the Republicans are in a runoff, which is what a lot of Republicans have feared all time. The long.

[Brian Cheung]

Yeah, I mean, for him, in some ways, he hopes that Trump doesn't do the endorsement right.

[Julie Serkin]

And either stays neutral or endorses Paxton, because I think that's a win for him.

[Brian Cheung]

Look, he's raising money hand over foot, and he's doing well. He's speaking to a broad audience. And I think he has the ability to pull over some independents and maybe some Republicans, especially if Paxton gets on the ballot.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Kendra, one of the concerns with him was would he be able to. So yes, it's independents, it's moderates. Will he be able to energize black voters in Texas in the way or maybe not in the same way, but can he energize black voters? Jasmine Crockett made that one of her key arguments.

[Brian Cheung]

I think you'll see Democrats coming together and uniting around him come election time because I think they're going to want to win the election. So I have no doubt that that

[Julie Serkin]

will be the case.

[Brian Cheung]

And that could be control of the Senate.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

Yeah. Well, okay. So Idris, final point to you. I mean, Democrats have been eyeing Texas for a very long time. Long time. Is this a year when they could actually win the Senate seat they haven't won in more than three decades, a Senate seat in Texas?

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah. I think if Talarico is the nominee, if Paxton is the Republican nominee, they are definitely going to feel it again and they will spend a lot of money trying to get there. They will force the Republicans to spend a lot of money to do it. And I think that they, they will think it's in sight. It's a good year for them. The president is unpopular. It's a midterm election, historical. Historically, presidents don't do that well in that time. So I think they're going to go for it again.

[John Bolton]

All right.

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

One of the many races we're watching very closely. Guys, thank you so much. Great conversation. Idris, Kendra and Sarah really appreciate it. We are back tomorrow with more MEET THE press. Now there's more ahead on NBC News. Now real talent is defined by what people can do, not where they learn to do it.

[Keir Simmons]

So by stopping at the education section

[Kristen Welker]

of a resume, you might throw away

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

the perfect hire skills first.

[Keir Simmons]

Hiring helps you see talent others miss,

[Host/Moderator (Kristen Welker or NBC Anchor)]

like more than 70 million stars skilled through alternative routes let their story unfold and gain a competitive advantage. Because hiring managers who start with skills are 60% more likely to find a successful hire. Hire skills first. Learn why at tear the papersealing.org brought to you by opportunityatwork and the Ad Council.