Monica Alba (2:15)

Mr. President, did Israel force your hand to launch these strikes against Iran? Did Netanyahu pull the United States into this war?

Kristen Welker (2:22)

No.

Marco Rubio (2:22)

I might have forced their hands.

Kristen Welker (2:25)

You see, we were having negotiations with

Marco Rubio (2:27)

these lunatics and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack. If we didn't do it, they were going to attack first.

Kristen Welker (2:37)

I felt strongly about that.

Marco Rubio (2:38)

We're hitting them very hard and the big scale hitting goes now they no

Kristen Welker (2:43)

longer have air protection.

Marco Rubio (2:45)

They no longer have any detection facilities at all left. And so they're going to, they're going to be in for a lot of hurt.

Host/Moderator (2:55)

It stands in stark contrast to what Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters yesterday ahead of the administration's briefing with top congressional leaders.

Marco Rubio (3:05)

We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action.

Kristen Welker (3:07)

We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces.

Marco Rubio (3:10)

And we knew that if we didn't

Kristen Welker (3:12)

preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties

Marco Rubio (3:17)

and perhaps even higher.

Kristen Welker (3:18)

Those killed moments ago.

Host/Moderator (3:20)

Secretary of State Rubio spoke to reporters and was pressed about that discrepancy. Here's some of what he said.

Marco Rubio (3:27)

I was very clear in that answer.

Kristen Welker (3:29)

This was a question of timing, of why this had to happen as a joint operation, not the question of the intent. Once the president made a decision that negotiations were not going to work, that they were playing us on the negotiations

Marco Rubio (3:39)

and that this was a threat that was untenable, the decision was made to strike them. That's what I said yesterday.

Host/Moderator (3:46)

Right now, Secretary Rubio, along with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kaine are all back on Capitol Hill to brief Congress about the US Military operations in Iran. And we will be keeping a very close eye on what lawmakers say after that closed door briefing.

Monica Alba (4:06)

Today.

Host/Moderator (4:06)

President Trump was also asked about the worst case scenario in Iran, which comes as he leaves open the possibility of boots on the ground.

Kristen Welker (4:16)

I guess the worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who's as bad as the previous person.

Marco Rubio (4:22)

Right. That could happen.

Kristen Welker (4:24)

We don't want that to happen.

Marco Rubio (4:25)

It would probably be the worst. You go through this and then in five years you realize you put somebody

Kristen Welker (4:31)

in who is no better. So we'd like to see somebody in

Marco Rubio (4:34)

there that's going to bring it back

Kristen Welker (4:37)

for the people and we'll see what happens with the people.

Host/Moderator (4:41)

Amid that leadership vacuum in Tehran today, Israel bombed a building being used by Iran's assembly of Experts, the body tasked with electing the new supreme leader. Meanwhile, many Americans still in the region are now caught in the crossfire. And we're getting these new dramatic images out of Dubai where the US Consulate was hit by a drone. Dubai's media office says it extinguished a limited fire in the vicinity of the consulate and, and the incident did not result in any injuries. It comes after yesterday the US Embassy in Riyadh was attacked by two drones, resulting in a limited fire and minor damage to that building. That's according to the Saudi Ministry of Defense. The State Department, meanwhile, announcing it was closing at least three of its embassies in the region while urging Americans in the region to leave. And for those who can't, to call the State Department's emergency hotline. This is part of the recording they hear when they do listen. Please do not rely on the US

Marco Rubio (5:40)

Government for assisted departure or evacuation at this time.

Host/Moderator (5:44)

There are currently no United States evacuation points. This afternoon, the State Department announced it is actively securing military aircraft and chartering flights for American citizens who wish to leave the region. Joining me now is our team of reporters covering all of the angles. NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung, NBC News White House correspondent Monica Alba, NBC News international correspondent Matt Bradley, and NBC News national security correspondent Courtney Kuby. Also with me, retired four star general and former director of the CIA David Petraeus. Thanks to all of you for starting us off. Brian, I want to start with you because the markets just closed. So I want to talk about energy prices, gas prices, oil prices, they're all up. What are the implications? What are you watching for?

Kristen Welker (6:36)

Yeah, and this is a continuation of the story that we have been tracking over the weekend with the Strait of Hormuz again, that really narrow channel that is the access point into Iran as well as Iraq, Kuwait, the uae, Qatar, major oil producers, all of them accounting for about 20% of oil production in the, in the world. And so for that reason, any conflict would lead, that would lead to closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a substantial spiking in oil prices. And that's what we're seeing already. So if you take a look at prices at the pump, at least by track, by GasBuddy, we've seen that prices at the pump are now averaging $3.11. That is up 6 cents just from yesterday, 15 cents from the last week. For every $10 that an estimated barrel of oil goes up in price, the consumer faces about a 25 cent increase in the prices that they pay at the pump. This is happening already. And if this is indeed a conflict that's going to go for four or five weeks as has been suggested, that could continue to go up depending on how long and how close the Strait of Hormuz is. Kristen?

Host/Moderator (7:36)

Brian, it's just extraordinary because President Trump actually acknowledged today oil prices were higher, but he tried to downplay concerns about long term prices. Take a listen to what he said. Get your reaction on the other side.

Marco Rubio (7:50)

If we have a little high oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe lower than even before.

Host/Moderator (8:00)

And Brian, we should note he also announced the US Navy plans to escort tankers to did these prices and do they run the risk of spiraling out of control for an extended period of time?

Monica Alba (8:12)

Yeah.

Kristen Welker (8:12)

Well, the president's true social post from just in the last hour or so, it does underscore that the administration wants to take some action to make sure that tankers can flow through the Strait of Hormuz and keep that flow of oil going through. But again, you have to remember what the Iranians are threatening. They're threatening to set any ship that goes through the Strait of Hormuz on fire. So if the president is saying, hey, the United States will ensure ships that are going through that channel and all also have a navy escort to accompany some of those ships, is that going to be enough to assuage the fears of all of those tankers that want to traffic or rather move oil through that region? It's unclear. And you do also run the risk of further escalation if a ship tries to pass through and then gets attacked by the Iranians. So again, this is a very serious situation here. It's unclear about whether or not that true social post is going to reopen the flow of oil. It's a very serious situation. For right now, oil markets do appear to be moving on that.

Host/Moderator (9:05)

It certainly is. All right, Brian Chung, thank you so much for that. Monica, let me turn to you at the White House. You've been working your sources, of course, this post recently came out about the US Navy escorting ships. What are your sources telling you about this latest development?

Monica Alba (9:23)

Well, this is something that Secretary Rubio telegraphed yesterday, Christine, saying that this was going to be something that was likely going to be an issue that they were tracking. The Trump administration was worried about what might happen to oil prices. And so that is why the president had a meeting today with the Energy secretary, Chris Wright, and with the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, where they did agree that the United States Development Finance Corporation is going to provide basically insurance to some of these massive tankers. And as you were just discussing, Will say that if the U.S. navy needs to can escort them through the Strait of Hormuz, if that is something that is something that's going to happen, I think it is notable as you're talking about the domestic impact of this when we're talking about gas prices, that is something that this administration tracks very closely, is always talking about is always touting when they're down. So certainly they are following this very closely and looking at additional ways potentially to mitigate that aspect.

Host/Moderator (10:19)

Kristen, certainly gas prices always top of mind for this administration and quite frankly, any administration. Monica, let me ask you broadly speaking, about what went into the president's decision to launch these operations. The timing of it was. What more are you learning about that?

Monica Alba (10:37)

Well, we heard from some senior administration officials today who pulled back the curtain a bit on the way that the diplomatic negotiations just totally devolved from the US Perspective. They are making the argument that the Iranians were playing a game and were just trying to draw out the US Negotiators who were at the table, who of course were the president's son in law, Jared Kushner, and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who had been going back and forth to Geneva. And according to these officials, essentially they said they came back after the latest round of talks. Talks they told the president that they didn't believe that Iran and the negotiators were acting in good faith. They felt like there was an urgency given what they were able to develop, what they were moving underground, what could be the possibility of this nuclear weapon and further enrichment and that that is why the president decided to go with the military strikes, because the diplomatic talks had broken down to such a point of no return. Kristen?

Host/Moderator (11:32)

Well, Monica, great reporting there. And I have to ask you about this developing story. Americans trying to get out of the region sending text messages to their loved ones back at home saying, can you help me? Did the administration have a plan? What is the plan to get these Americans out?

Monica Alba (11:51)

You are seeing administration officials approach this with a new level of urgency today, Kristen, which I think answers your question, which seems to be they didn't have much of a comprehensive plan going into this. In fact, this is how the president responded to a question about that very concern a few hours ago. Listen, why wasn't there an evacuation plan and will you send planes to get people out?

Marco Rubio (12:13)

Well, because it happened all very quickly. We thought, and I thought maybe more

Kristen Welker (12:18)

so than most, I could ask Marco,

Marco Rubio (12:20)

but I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked.

Monica Alba (12:26)

And Secretary Rubio was just asked about this a short time ago, Kristen, and he basically said, we're trying to get Americans who want to leave the region out of on chartered planes. They are making those arrangements now. But they also urged them to try to leave commercially. But the big, big issue with that is that much of the airspace is closed in some of these countries and the airports themselves are also shut down and airlines have canceled flights. So this is a very huge logistical challenge and problem now. And that is why the State Department is urging Americans there, US Citizens to reach out so they can basically complete a profile with the State Department and then they can be in touch with them about these potential chartered flights. But again, that could take a time to get set up. Kristen?

Host/Moderator (13:08)

Monica, thank you for your great reporting. As we look at this graphic that we just put up, let us just remind our viewers, call this number if you need assistance. 200-250-14444. Again, 1-202-501-4444. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointing people to that number. Monica Alba, thank you so much for your great reporting as always. General Petraeus, I'd like to turn to you now before we delve into the specifics. What is your broad reaction to how this war has unfolded so far?

David Petraeus (13:46)

Well, there have been some extraordinary achievements. It's historic, needless to say, to have killed the supreme leader, the equivalent of the minister of defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs equivalent, and a number of other very senior leaders in the security forces. There's been enormous damage done to the principal targets of this operation, the ones that caused the worry, the missile program, that Iran had tried to reconstitute the launchers and now probably even the manufacturing facilities. They've taken down a number of ships in the navy that should help over time to reduce the threats to the Strait of Hormuz. You were right to highlight that we were watching the prices today. They actually topped $80 per barrel for a period, but then eased back a bit perhaps when president announced that our navy will escort those ships. There's also been very substantial damage done to the regime force headquarters, other leaders and indeed a variety of their bases and so forth. And I'm sure that if we haven't already, that there will be further strikes on the remnants of the nuclear program, especially given that the International Atomic Energy Agency says that there may be buried underneath the rubble at the SFHON site a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. I'm sure that our deep penetrating massive ordnance penetrators will give that attention over time as well. The real question, I think, is whether or not our strikes on the missile program. And also I should have mentioned the drone program, which has been a bit of a challenge, particularly in some of the countries of the Gulf states. In fact, I think it was drones that killed our six soldiers in the strikes in Kuwait, some other countries, the UAE has done very impressively against that. They've made not just the investments that all the countries had made in ballistic missile defense, early warning and interceptors, but also in the short range artillery and air defenses. That's very, very important. In this case. They have a layered defense which has been quite effective, although you have seen still small numbers have gotten through and hit the parking lot outside our consulate. There was a hotel that was hit. And of course, Iran has broadened this war, I think, in an unwise way. They've carried out horizontal escalation, as they say, hitting civilian targets throughout the Gulf states. And these are states that wanted to take a knee on this one to stay out of this. They denied our use of the air bases that we were often able to use. And now they've been brought into it by, I think, a very stupid decision, frankly, by the Iranians and then also by some of their proxies, Hezbollah attacking Israel. And the response has been overwhelming there. And some of the Shia militia in Iraq that are supported by Iran have also carried out a few strikes and there have been responses to that as well. But I think a big indicator will be what are the numbers of the drone and missile attacks over the next 24 hours? Have we been able to reduce those very substantially, which would be very encouraging, or is there a good bit more work to be done beyond that? There's the question, of course, about can this actually set the conditions for regime change and can Iranians take advantage of that? And that's something that we're not yet seeing, for example, a splintering or a breakoff or the emergence of some substantial opposition force, noting that the regime forces, however battered and damaged and degraded they may be, will still field somewhere in the neighborhood of a million men under arms who have shown a willingness to be very brutal to the Iranian citizens when they rise up.

Host/Moderator (17:28)

General Petraeus, just to follow up on that point, two part question for you on the question of regime change, can it be carried out in earnest with the without US Boots on the ground? And what is your biggest concern as you watch this unfold? In other words, what's the worst case scenario that you want the United States to avoid?

David Petraeus (17:50)

Well, I think the president was quite forthright in the Oval Office with Chancellor Merritz when he said that the worst case would be someone else takes over. Maybe we did or did not have something to do with that, had a choice or not, but turns out to be another ideological hardliner like his two predecessors. In fact, the assembly of Experts, of course, was meeting today to select the next supreme leader. And that was hit. That site was actually quite considerably damaged. I think you showed footage of that earlier. And so we'll see whether they reconvene and when they do and how quickly they do and how deeply underground that is. But again, the key is the US from the air can do a great deal to damage these regime forces, but it can't bring about regime change through the air. In fact, the former minister of defense of Israel pointed that out today as well. So what would be the conditions on the ground that would enable individuals to rise up, and will they, in fact, do that? There are numerous opposition forces. There are Azeris, there are Kurds, there are Turkmen. There's even Mujahideen al Khalq that we dealt with in the wake of the invasion of Iraq. The real question is, is there real military capability that would break off under a charismatic leader, galvanize all the people to take on this murderous regime that has driven Iran into a ditch economically, in isolation, internationally?

Host/Moderator (19:24)

General David Petraeus, thank you so much for joining us. Please come back soon. We really appreciate your perspective. Thank you, sir.

David Petraeus (19:31)

Good to be with you, Kristin.

Host/Moderator (19:33)

Good to have you here. Matt, let me turn to you. And just so that our viewers understand where you are right now, you had to evacuate to a shelter because there was in fact, a siren that went off. Right? Matt, give us the very latest.

Kristen Welker (19:51)

That's right. And actually, you and your audience saw me just a moment ago when we were up on the roof. You had that beautiful skyline of Tel Aviv behind me. Ever since then, we got an alert on our phones. And this is how, as I've been explaining now, this is how it goes. You get an alert on your phone, maybe five or ten minutes pass, and then you hear the full siren outside. Everybody in the city can hear it. And that's when you have a minute and a half to go to a place like this, what Israelis call a mammad. This is a bomb shelter, but it's not in a basement. We're still on the fifth floor. And for most, this is enough to protect you not from a direct impact from an Iranian ballistic missile, but enough to protect you from an Iranian ballistic missile that might fall nearby, which can be very, very deadly to those who are not protected. But there have been people, unfortunately, in places like the one where I'm standing right now, who have died because of a direct hit.

Host/Moderator (20:45)

Well, Matt, let me ask you, because Israel also announced a groundra operation in southern Lebanon. What do we know about the goal of that

Kristen Welker (20:58)

Well, I mean, here among Israeli leadership, the fact that Hezbollah decided, and they did decide to join the fight against Israel, they said in retaliation for Israel assassinating the Ayatollah Khamenei, you know, they have decided to enter this fight. They launched attacks against northern Israel. They've continued to launch northern attacks against Israel in the Golan Heights this afternoon and then tonight, just an hour or two ago, in the northern town of Haifa and further south. So they are still fighting. They are still involved in this. The Israelis have said that they are going to be moving in. They are already taking the offensive and attacking Lebanon. There's already been well more than 100 people who have been killed. And now we have stopped short of seeing Israelis evacuating from the north of Israel, which is what they did after October 7th when Hezbollah first decided that they were going to start attacking Israel in solidarity with another Iranian backed proxy group, Hamas, which committed those atrocities on October 7th and set off this latest round of fighting.

Host/Moderator (22:05)

Matt Bradley, please stay safe. Thank you so much for moving so quickly to safe ground and still bringing us that report. Matt, we really appreciate it. Thank you. I want to turn now to Courtney Kuby here, who is with me. Courtney, you have some new details about the strategy moving forward, about what might be coming next. What can you tell us?

Monica Alba (22:25)

Yes, so we've all been trying to figure out what the President meant when he's now told several different reporters that there's a big wave coming. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, also repeated this, that there's this huge next phase that's coming. So we know is the phases. So far we've seen the initial phase where they use standoff weapons, Tomahawks, aircraft from sort of outside Iranian airspace with long range munitions, they take out air defenses and the kinds of things that could threaten U.S. aircraft and U.S. personnel when they're coming in to take follow on strikes. Then they bring in the manned aircraft, the bombers, B1s, B2s, we've seen video of that. They start going after those hardened facilities that General Petraeus was just talking a little bit there. Because it's not just the nuclear facilities that are hardened. A lot of their missile ones are too. The production facilities, the storage facilities, the vertical silos where they create this program. That is, it is concerning and it has been for years, frankly. But the big question is, what's this next big phase? Well, just by process of elimination, they've not gone after the nuclear program at all yet. And that is one of the first things. Yeah. So you know we assume that that's gonna be one of the next phases. But in this case right now, they are still firmly going after the ballistic missile program, the Navy and the Air Force.

Host/Moderator (23:35)

Well, it's just fascinating. When I talked to President Trump over the weekend, I asked him, what does success look like? He said, I think this has already been a success. But Courtney, based on your conversations, do you have a sense what's the ultimate goal here? How will the military know when that's been achieved?

Monica Alba (23:54)

So the military is actually in some ways the easy piece of this goal because they have set out very direct, specific military objectives. So it is the destruction of the ballistic missile program. And you can have. There's a finite number of targets with that. We don't know what that is. But they're the launchers, the production, everything that I just went through, that's the missile program. They want to destroy the Navy, that's going after all the ships, it's going after the headquarters. They want to destroy the Air Force. Yes, that's going after the aircraft, but it's also packing up the runways so that they can't take off from them, that kind of thing. Those are finite and defined goals. And the nuclear program as well, if they actually go after it, it's the regime change that's going to be tough here. And as you were just trying to talk to General Petraeus about, I don't know how the military will play a part in that. And if I'm candid, I don't know that the administration knows that either. If they're going to see how this unfolds and then, as President Trump has said, see if the people rise up.

Host/Moderator (24:49)

He continues to point to the people. He also posted on social media yesterday, Cord, I'm gonna read this. He says the United States munitions stockpiles have at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better. Wars can be fought forever and very successfully using just these supplies. Give us the reality check here.

Monica Alba (25:11)

I don't know what medium and upper grade munitions are. I've been asking that question. I think he means long, medium and long range munitions, which if that is the case, yes, there are, there is a huge stockpile of those. But that's not been the problem with this and that's not been the concern all along. Yeah, I mean, they're always going to be worried about munitions. Right. We've heard forever about 155 rounds in Ukraine. The concern here is the defensive capability, the defensive stockpile. So Iran has unleashed hundreds of missiles probably at this point, thousands of drones and some allies are shooting some of them down. But the US Also has to be ready to shoot those down when they're targeting US Bases if they end up going after ships, that kind of thing. And there is a finite number of those defensive munitions. Remember during the 12 Day War, after Operation Midnight Hammer, the US had to fire off a lot of their patriots, their thaads, their longer range systems to defend against Iran's incoming missiles and drones. So the stockpiles are down and they cannot produce them as fast as they want to.

Host/Moderator (26:11)

All right, Courtney Kuby, thank you so much for being here. Really appreciate it. I know you have been going nonstop. Coming up, voters head to the polls for the first major primaries of the year in key races that could have a major impact on the midterms and the battle for control of Congress. We are live in Texas following two of the biggest races tonight for Senate. Stay with us. You're watching Meet the Press.

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Host/Moderator (28:07)

Welcome back. If it's Tuesday, voters are voting in the first major Primaries of the 2026 midterms those elections taking place across North Carolina, Arkansas and Texas. And all eyes are on the Lone Star State and its high stakes Senate race, which has generated competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle, which will be watched very closely for clues about the future of both parties. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is trying to fend off two challenges from his right against State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt. President Trump has not endorsed anyone in that race. Meanwhile, Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico are offering primary voters two very different arguments about why they are the most electable Democrat as the party looks to flip Texas Senate blues for the first time in generations. Joining me now is our NBC News team down in Texas. Priscilla Thompson is in Dallas and Ryan Chandler is in Austin. Thanks to both of you for being here. Priscilla, let me start with you. You are in the Democratic stronghold of Dallas where there's been some reports of confusion at the polls. What do we know?

Monica Alba (29:18)

Yeah, Kristen. So this stems from some new rules that are restricting where people are allowed to vote. And so many people are showing up at polling sites where they have voted at for years only to be redirected to a different site. And I just want to give you a look here. You can see we're going to stay as far back as we're required to, but you see that line there before people get into the door. And the county tells me that there are actually people with tablets that checking people's addresses and redirecting them if they are not allowed to vote at this location. And as of this morning, earlier this morning, when I spoke with one of the judges who was in there on the Democratic side, he said around just under half of Democratic voters were being sent to different polling sites. And Jasmine, Representative Jasmine Crockett was here just a short while ago, was asked about that. And I want to play some of what she had to say about what she's seen going on today with regard to people being redirected to different polling sites rights. You know, it's the confusion, it's the games. It is so sad that the Republicans

Host/Moderator (30:14)

don't know how to win fair and square.

Monica Alba (30:15)

The only thing they know how to do is cheat. It is not lost on me that when Donald Trump decided to go after congressional districts, he started in the state of Texas. It's not lost on me that when the Republicans decided that there was one

Host/Moderator (30:27)

particular county that they specifically wanted to

Monica Alba (30:29)

target out of the large counties, it

Host/Moderator (30:31)

just happened to be my home county. I am here to tell the Republicans they can try all the dirty traffic

Monica Alba (30:36)

that they want to try. We are going to win. We are going to beat them. We're going to beat them as it relates to this primary. We are going to beat them with

Host/Moderator (30:43)

their dirty tricks in November.

Monica Alba (30:46)

And I will tell you, I've spoken to several voters who did walk up intending to vote and were told that they would be redirected, all of them telling me that they were going to go to those other polling sites. But Representative Crockett did say that she does intend to file a request to extend the voting hours as a result of this.

David Petraeus (31:02)

This.

Monica Alba (31:03)

Wow.

Host/Moderator (31:03)

And very quickly, what are voters telling you is their top issue as they head to the polls?

Monica Alba (31:10)

Yeah. You know, for some people, it is the economy. It is that, the wallet, the pocketbook for other people, especially Democrats here. I did speak to one woman who said that she wants someone who is going to fight and just sort of help to balance out what she sees going on in Washington right now. But interestingly enough, she's voting for James Talarico. And I asked her, you know, Crockett has sort of portrayed herself as more of the fighter in this race, and she said, yes, she loves both of them, but she feels like Talarico is ultimately going to be able to flip this seat from red to blue.

Host/Moderator (31:39)

All right. Well, it is a heated race for sure. Let's head over to Ryan Chandler. Ryan, you're in Austin. So we're watching the hotly contested Republican primary, of course, what's so fascinating about this? Senator John Cornyn in the fight of his political life. He's facing a challenge from Ken Paxton, the attorney general, as well as Congressman Wesley Hunt. Ken Paxton, of course, has a lot of political baggage, but polls show he's actually running pretty strong in this race. What are voters telling you

Kristen Welker (32:11)

he is? You know, the choice that Republican voters see in this primary is between this institution, a longtime senator in John Cornyn, who is seen by some, some as a conservative with the legislative chops to compromise and others as insufficiently maga. And then you have in Ken Paxton, a partisan firebrand who is viciously loyal to President Trump. We are in a Democratic stronghold here in Austin, but we were able to find some Republicans, including one woman who told us she's voting for Ken Paxton to kick John Cornyn out of office, a man who has held elected office for the last 40 years. Here's what she told us.

Host/Moderator (32:49)

Kristin, I think he would show a great be a great leader in the Senate for Texas.

Kristen Welker (32:56)

How do you feel about Senator Cornyn's career.

Host/Moderator (32:58)

I don't think he's done a great job. I think he's very defensive and I think that he's quick to blame, put the blame on elsewhere rather than taking it for himself.

Kristen Welker (33:06)

What was the top issue on your mind when you stepped into the ballot box?

Host/Moderator (33:10)

Putting Americans in Texas first.

Kristen Welker (33:13)

That perspective there indicative of the majority of what the polling indicates is the Republican primary electorate, certainly the most conservative who are the most likely to show up throughout this primary.

David Petraeus (33:26)

Kristen.

Host/Moderator (33:28)

All right, Ryan, thank you so much. Great interview. Thanks for bringing that to us. We really appreciate it. And here to tell us what he's watching for tonight is NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki at the big board. Where else would he be on an election night? Steve, break this down. Texas is the center of all of these heated races.

Kristen Welker (33:49)

It is, Kristen. And it's not the only state, though, voting tonight. Quick tour is some of the things we're looking at. You're talking about the Senate race in Texas. Could an incumbent senator lose there? How about in North Carolina, one of the other states voting today? Valerie Fuchsi, incumbent Democratic member of the House. She is in danger of losing a primary, being challenged from the left, left by Nita Alam. She's supported by Senator Bernie Sanders. We've seen these sort of left wing insurgencies in Democratic primaries having some success lately. Will a Democratic incumbent, a member of the House, lose her seat in a primary in North Carolina? I think that's one of the themes tonight. Incumbents, will they go down in primaries? That's one to watch in North Carolina. But then let's head over to Texas. Let's talk about that Republican race you were just looking at there. John Cornyn, no Republican, excuse me, no incumbent senator has been denied renomination by his or her party in 14 years. Richard Lugar, 2012 in Indiana was the last one. Cornyn could be the next one. Now, the suspense tonight. First of all, will there be a runoff if no one gets 50% plus one? The top two go on. The conventional wisdom right now is saying that would be Cornyn and Paxton. We'll see if that holds true. The way Paxton's been talking in these closing days, maybe it's just bluster. He's talking about hitting 50% tonight. If they do go to the runoff, it's a question of what position the two of them are in. If Cornyn makes it to the runoff, is he lagging behind Paxton tonight? Is it a weak showing for a 20 plus year incumbent here? Is it a surprisingly strong showing for Cornyn tonight heading into a runoff, something that could potentially help him get President Trump to come off the sidelines and endorse him. Many people think if Cornyn is ultimately gonna survive, he's gonna need the Trump endorsement right now. Now, he does not have that Democrats watching this race, too. They think Paxton is the one they would have a shot at in November potentially. Who will the Democrats put up in that race? Jasmine Crockett, James Talarico here. A couple things to look at, I think. First of all, the polling's been all over the place. But one thing the polling all agrees on is that Crockett is winning the black vote and she is winning it overwhelmingly. That's probably going to be about 20%, about one out of every five votes cast in this primary. What does that mean for Crockett? Well, her political base is right around Dallas. You just had that report there from Dallas. So look for Crockett. Certainly she's trying to run up the score in the Dallas Fort Worth metroplex. You know, probably close to 30% of all the votes in the primary are going to come out of here. Another area of strength just based on having that strong black support for Jasmine Crockett would be in East Texas going down. You know, the city of Beaumont here, Texarkana, small towns here with large black population. This is gonna be the core strength for Crockett. As for Talarico, his political base is right around Austin, a ton of votes. He's overwhelmingly Democratic there in Travis County, a ton of votes there. Look for him to run up the numbers around Austin. And I think the big question, the suspense in this primary has to do with it's about a third of the electorate in a Democratic primary, the Hispanic vote. How is the Hispanic vote going to break here? We're gonna certainly be looking at the city of El Paso. That's a big one. We will look in South Texas, along the border here. Who is winning these places that might end up being definitive in this primary? Kristen?

Host/Moderator (37:00)

Steve, we're going to be watching that so closely. It helped Donald Trump win the White House for a second term. So we are going to be watching the Hispanic vote very carefully as well as, of course, the African American vote in all of the different counties you just talked about. Steve Kornacki will be with you all night. Thank you so much. It was great to see to have you. Coming up after the break, with all eyes on Texas, we're checking in with Texas Congressman Henry Cuellar, who's looking to clinch a 12th term in office this year as the midterms collide with war in Iran. And we will have much more tonight in our special primetime coverage of the midterm primaries starting at 8pm Eastern. Please join me and my colleagues, Hallie Jackson, Steve Kornacki, you see them there and many more. Stay with us. You're watching MEET THE press.

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Yeah.

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Host/Moderator (38:50)

More now on primary night in Texas, both parties. Senate primaries are today's main event but Texans are also casting ballots in down ballot races heading into a midterm cycle that will serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump's presidency and Republicans control of Congress. Joining me now is Congressman Henry Cuellar, Democrat from Texas. Congressman Cuellar, thanks so much for joining me.

Marco Rubio (39:13)

Thank you. It's a pleasure being with you.

Host/Moderator (39:15)

Well, it's great to have you. We are going to talk about the state of play in Texas in just a moment. But I want to ask you, big picture, we are now in the midst of this war with Iran and I'm curious, do you think it will have an impact on on the races in Texas, on the midterms broadly, what do you think Democrats message should be?

Marco Rubio (39:37)

Well, you know, first of all, could it have an impact on the elections? Yes, a lot of it depends what happens. Let's say for the next 30 days there's a lot of operational realities that we have to look at. I certainly feel that Congress needs to reassert itself, but to do it immediately, that that just doesn't meet the operational realities. We need to assert ourselves at least 30 days from the time that the, you know, the conflict started so we can go ahead and look at the operational reality. So can it have an impact? A lot of it depends. The next 30 days.

Host/Moderator (40:14)

Let me ask you about your primary. First of all, give us a sense of your closing message as you head into the final vote being cast. And do you think you would have faced a tougher primary challenge if the president hadn't granted you a pardon in December?

Marco Rubio (40:32)

Well, look, you know, even, even before he gave me the pardon, I had tough races. In fact, you know, the left of the Progressives had spent 20 over $20 million that we could count the last primary races in two primaries. So, so I faced this before, but certainly now we're going to win this primary today and then we're going to go into the November election. But I can tell you there was not a paradigm shift in South Texas going Republican. They voted for President Trump because of open borders and high costs of groceries and other items. But there are people that are having buyers remorse. Prices are high. Remember, he said that he was on lower prices on the first day. That hasn't happened. Tariffs are a hidden tax on it. And the other thing is we're not talking about open borders now, but we're talking the way the aggressiveness of ice on people on work sites that are not focusing on criminals, but they're focusing on work sites where people don't have criminal records or, you know, have lived here for a long time. And they're focusing on those people that affects the economy, that raises prices along with tariffs, which are a hidden tax.

Host/Moderator (41:50)

Let me ask you, because President Trump did mention you in a social media post, I want to give you the opportunity to respond. He says this, I don't know why, but the fact that Henry Cuellar would be running against Donald J. Trump and the Republican Party seems to be a great act of disloyalty and perhaps more importantly, the act of a fool who would immediately go back to a political party, the radical left, Democrat, Democrats whose views are different from his. What's your response to that, Congressman?

Marco Rubio (42:16)

Well, you know, look, you know, first of all, I am thankful for the president, for the pardon, for that he gave. Both my wife and I, we can go into the details of the timing. You know, what the DOJ did, we can talk about that. I can talk about the legal opinion that I had, the two ethics opinions. I can talk about all that. But let me tell you something. You know, look, I'm a, I'm a Democrat. I'm a conservative Democrat. I'm not on the left left. And I think, you know, people that go too far to the right are wrong. I follow the words of LBJ where he said many years ago, I'm an American, I'm a Texan, and then I'm a Democrat. And I think, you know, both parties do a mistake when they put party before country. We need to put country before any political party.

Host/Moderator (43:04)

Well, I want to ask you about the big Senate race in your state. You represent a district that really typifies Democrats, Democrats struggles in recent elections, South Texas, Hispanics along the border. So I'm curious, we're obviously going to be watching that vote very closely. Do you think Jasmine Crockett or James Tallarico would better win back those votes in a general election? In other words, who's the stronger general election candidate?

Marco Rubio (43:33)

Well, you know, certainly they both have their own strengths. And I think, you know, the segment before here, I think they analyze this, where Crockett is strong in East Texas and Dallas, Fort Worth area and Turrico is strong in the area of the Austin area where he's from. But a lot of it depends what's going to happen with South Texas and the border and the Hispanics. I think that's going to make the change or is going to make the difference not only for that race in the Democratic primary, but certainly it's going to have an impact when we look at the general election for Democrats.

Host/Moderator (44:13)

Well, and so who do you think? Because that seems to be part of where the battle lines are being drawn in that critical Senate primary, which is that Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico are both arguing that they would be the stronger candidate in the general election. Who do you think? Which candidate do you think has a better shot at flipping Texas, which hasn't been done in more than three decades, Congressman, by Democrats in a Senate.

Marco Rubio (44:40)

Well, you know, I remember when we had the last Democrat on statewide, it's been a long time. It's been a drought, but I think it's going to change. You know, the question is, and I'm again, avoid your question again, because I'm trying to focus on my race in South Texas. So thank you for asking me twice and I'll give you the same answer. Look, you know, you know, depending who wins on the Republican because there's two things we're looking at. We're looking at the Republican primary. We're certainly looking at the Democratic primary. But I really feel if you look at the number of Democrats that have come out, we have outpaced the Republicans. No ifs, no buts. Now, Texas is still a Republican state, but I'm hoping that we're seeing a change because people just want to see this change where they don't want this extreme rise. A lot of the things that they've done down here just doesn't hit well in South Texas. And again, I'll emphasize South Texas. There was not a paradigm shift here. There were people that didn't like what Biden did with open borders, but now they don't like what the president and the Republicans are doing building border walls when you know the numbers have gone down at the border and the aggressiveness of ICE has just turned a lot of people. And certainly the tariffs are hidden, tax on consumers and not even talking about the big beautiful bill, that's a different conversation that we can certainly criticize the Republicans on.

Host/Moderator (46:08)

Congressman, let me ask you quickly before I let you go. Republicans, including DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, who was on the Hill today, are arguing that what is happening in Iran has added urgency to the need to to end the partial government shutdown with DHS being shut down because of potential threats here at home. What say you? Will you in fact vote to reopen DHS now that the United States is at war?

Marco Rubio (46:38)

I'm the top ranking Democrat on the Homeland Appropriations Committee. I supported it some time ago and I'm supported again. I wish that the White House, House, because it's not a negotiation between House and Senate, Democrats or Republicans, it's negotiations with the White House. The Republicans are given the power of the Appropriations Article 1 to the White House. If they would work with us a little bit more oversight and rogue guards on ice, I think we can get this done. But again, I represent a lot of Border Patrol agents, TSA, and a lot of folks down here per capita. There's more Homeland folks. So, so I look forward to supporting Homeland, but I wish they would be a little bit more the Republicans be a little bit more reasonable on some of the ICE rail guards that they know should be done.

Kristen Welker (47:27)

All right.

Host/Moderator (47:27)

Congressman Henry Cuellar, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. And we will be right back. Thank you. We'll be right back with more. You're watching Meet THE Press. Welcome back. Joining me now to break down all of today's news is our Panel Jeff Mason, Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Taryn Rosenkranz, Democratic strategist and CEO of New Blue Interactive, and former Florida Republican Congressman Carlos Cribello. He is also an NBC News political analyst. Thanks to all of you for being here. Really appreciate it. So, Jeff, we've been talking, we've been talking to some of the candidates. We've been talking about the big races in Texas. Obviously, the Senate race is the one to watch. What are you going to be watching for specifically tonight?

Kristen Welker (48:17)

I think just which candidate ends up winning and what that means for November. And do the Democrats have a chance in Texas? The Democrats have long wanted to have a chance in Texas. I remember covering President Obama and all of his people at the end of his term going to Texas and saying, we're going to turn Texas blue. We haven't seen it.

Host/Moderator (48:36)

I was there with you.

Kristen Welker (48:38)

I know you were. And they were very confident and it didn't happen. But they do see an avenue here tonight. But it's gonna depend on which one of them wins and which one of them has the best chance.

Host/Moderator (48:47)

Darren, pick up on that point. I'm gonna actually play a robocall from Vice President Kamala Harris, who did endorse Jasmine Crockett, play it for you and get your reaction on the other side. Let's take a listen.

Kristen Welker (49:00)

Hi, this is Kamala Harris, and I'm calling to encourage you to please go

Monica Alba (49:04)

vote for my friend Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary today, Friday, February 27, or on election day, Tuesday, March 3,

Kristen Welker (49:14)

Texas has the chance to send a

Monica Alba (49:16)

fighter like Jasmine Crockett to the United States Senate.

Kristen Welker (49:20)

Jasmine has the experience and record to

Monica Alba (49:22)

hold Donald Trump and his billionaire cronies accountable.

Host/Moderator (49:26)

Does the former vice president help or hurt her in this home stretch? It's all about excitement, I think. And right now, one thing you cannot say is that there isn't a lot of excitement in Texas. There's a lot of people who are geared up and running around and it's a big primary. And I think no matter who comes out of it, I think in this instance, she's going to be taking that core base of Jasmine Crockett and getting them excited, making sure people turn out to vote. That's a GOTV vote in my mind. She's not going to be persuading anyone, and I don't think she's going to hurt anyone. It's just going to help with turnout. Carlos, it's expected the Republican primary will likely go to a runoff. Extraordinary that President Trump, not only did he not endorse he was in Texas on Friday with all three candidates talking about there's a little race that's underway here in Texas, still didn't endorse. And part of the issue is John Corden not only represents the old guard, but someone who's been critical of him, he believes not loyal enough to him. You have Ken Paxton, who's the MAGA fire brand and yet has a lot of of political baggage. How do you see this race playing out?

Kristen Welker (50:30)

Well, Kristen, a few weeks ago, when Chuck Schumer came out and said the Senate was in play, I rolled my eyes. I didn't really believe it. But I think the result tonight, if John Cornyn loses by a very wide margin, even if he makes the runoff, where it's obvious that he really can't make up the difference in the runoff, then I do think that the Senate might actually be in play. There's an irony here because the president, in refusing to support Cornyn, someone who would easily win reelection, might be hurting his own chances of getting nominees approved in the next term of Congress. So that's what I'm looking for here. Is the Senate actually in play or not? I didn't believe Schumer when he came out and said it, but tonight could bring us a little closer to his position.

Host/Moderator (51:15)

Taryn, how do you see this? Because as Jeff points out, Democrats have been looking at Texas as maybe being in play since the Obama administration, and it just hasn't happened to in more than three decades. Yeah. And I will say we said the same about Georgia, and we did seem to conquer that. So there's always hope. There's always hope in the horizon. And I, I do think this is unprecedented times with the, the way that people are feeling about what's going on in America. And because you have that, I think the Trump thump here is like instead of his bump that people are getting excited, there really is this overwhelming feeling that people are really upset at him. And I do think that makes the whole dynamics of history a little bit different. Well, part of the backdrop now, Jeff, is this war in Iran. This is a president who campaigned on getting Americans out of foreign wars. He said no more regime change. And now here we are. And the president, in this extraordinary moment today, acknowledged gas prices are up. Said might be up for a little while, but it's worth it, he said, for the overall goal. And then he predicted they would come back down. But gas prices, that was his big talking point.

Kristen Welker (52:21)

It was the talking point. I mean, the president has taken credit repeatedly for bringing gasoline prices Down. And they were down. I mean, I am from Colorado. I was in Denver a few times over the last few months and gas prices were hovering around $2. That's a nice place to be politically going into the midterms. It is a less nice place to be to see gas prices going up and in a position where everyone is going to know why. There's no way that President Trump can blame his predecessor for the economy changing now or for the gasoline prices going up when it is directly connected to a war that he launched.

Host/Moderator (52:56)

Yeah, and Carlos, weigh in on that point. How much does this play in the midterms in voters minds when they go to the poll?

Kristen Welker (53:06)

I think it's a big deal for the President's base and for Republican excitement or motivation to vote. Look, the old Republican Party was very much outward looking, right. These issues abroad, these wars, American leadership around the globe that really got voters excited. President Trump has changed the Republican Party. He has made the average Republican voter a lot more inward looking, focused on domestic issues, on improving quality of life. So now he's leading all of these foreign campaigns which again, you know, I served in Congress. We resisted against President Obama's Iran deal. I mean, this was who we are. But the President has changed that. And I think that that could end up hurting congressional Republicans who really need that Republican base to turn out the way they turn out for the President. Those voters might be confused and frustrated this year. So think House Republicans, some Senate Republicans who do support this policy in Iran very stridently. They might have some trouble connecting with voters and getting them excited.

Host/Moderator (54:14)

Taryn, what do you think Democrats message should be on Iran? How much should they focus on it? Because we've seen Democrats have a lot of success. The gubernatorial races in New Jersey, in Virginia, staying squarely focused on that issue of affordability. Yeah. And I think you're going to continue to see affordability like where are our priorities? It's actually his own message being used against him in a lot of ways. But it's like, where are our priorities right now? I mean, he spoke today about the, you know, the war and he goes off on the ballroom drapes like, you know, and how he's going to have this big fancy ballroom. And when people are paying higher at the pump and they're paying higher for their health care and they're paying higher at the grocery store, it's going to really impact people in a way that he doesn't want to have happen right before the midterms. And Jeff, we know that the White House has said President Trump's going to be out on the campaign trail. He's going to be campaigning like he's on the ballot. Does that now get trickier? And I guess as a part of that, does he need to better explain his strategy in Iran, the reason for actually being there?

Kristen Welker (55:20)

Well, number one, it certainly is distracting him from doing that. I mean, he's spending time now on foreign policy, which, as we've discussed before, his base is not looking for that. Now, we've covered the White House a long time. We know that every president, you guys know every president is going to have have to do foreign policy and domestic policy. But going into the midterms, the focus was supposed to be domestic. And now he's going to have to answer all of these questions. It'd be a big help for congressional Republicans if the president connected the dots. Explain to the American people why this is relevant to their lives, why this makes their lives better.

Host/Moderator (55:52)

We'll see if he does it perhaps in an address. We'll watch and see. Thanks, guys. Jeff, Taryn and Carlos, great conversation. We're back tomorrow with more MEET THE PRESS now. And as we mentioned, we'll have special coverage of the midterm primaries tonight starting at 8pm Eastern. There's more ahead on NBC News. Now

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