Meet the Press NOW — March 4

Summary

Meet the Press NOW — March 4, 2026: Episode Summary

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of Meet the Press NOW, hosted by Kristen Welker, dives deep into the major political stories dominating U.S. headlines:

• The first primaries of the 2026 midterms in Texas and North Carolina
• The Trump administration’s ongoing war in Iran, including military strategy, public polling, evacuation efforts for Americans abroad, and constitutional debates
• The widespread political ramifications, including divided public opinion, challenges for congressional incumbents, and key moments in the Texas Senate race

The episode features detailed reporting, exclusive interviews with lawmakers and experts, breakdowns of NBC’s latest polling, and grassroots voter reactions from a swing state.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The War in Iran: Military, Political, and Public Implications

Administration’s Position and Progress

• Kristen Welker opens with new NBC polling: 52% of voters oppose US military action in Iran; 54% disapprove of President Trump’s handling ([01:09]).
• White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt insists the President believes the nation is “smart enough to read past many of the fake news headlines” ([02:23]); she and other officials frame Iran as a terrorist threat for 47 years ([02:33]).
• President Trump claims “tremendous progress” in the war and rates U.S. performance “about a 15 out of 10” ([02:51]):

  “For 47 years, we were pushed around and we shouldn't have been... you see the tremendous progress that's being made. Their missiles are being wiped out rapidly.” (President Trump, [02:51])

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claims “the two most powerful air forces in the world will have complete control of Iranian skies” and promises more aggressive action ([03:43]):

  “We are just getting started. We are accelerating, not decelerating.” (Hegseth, [03:43])

• A dramatic Pentagon video is released showing a US submarine sinking an Iranian warship ([04:25]).

Fallout and Domestic Debate

• The Senate prepares to vote on a resolution to restrain the President’s war powers—expected to fail ([04:25]).
• The Trump administration works urgently to evacuate Americans from the Middle East amid airspace closures ([08:20]), with the State Department and military arranging possible flights ([08:20]).

Leadership Turmoil in Iran

• There is confusion and instability in Iran’s leadership after the targeted killing of Ayatollah Khamenei. Reports surface of postponed funerals and uncertainty over succession ([11:52]).
• The military is said to be operating independently; potential for a future leader who is either a hardliner or open to negotiations ([12:30]).

On-the-Ground Updates

• Richard Engel describes chaos for Americans trying to leave, regional air travel disruption, and escalation with attacks expanding into Lebanon ([09:25]).
• Potential for further conflict as Hezbollah vows to join the Iranian side ([10:28]).

---

2. Administration Strategy & Congressional Scrutiny

Military Strategy: Shifting Phases & Scope

• Courtney Kuby reports the Pentagon is emphasizing progress against Iranian air defenses; anticipates “big new phase” of manned strikes and potential action on Iran’s nuclear program ([13:27], [14:37]).
• Discussion of the U.S. possibly arming Kurdish opposition forces, mirroring support strategies previously used in Syria ([14:27]).

Losses and Messaging

• Six U.S. service members killed in drone attacks; Defense Secretary Hegseth criticizes media focus on casualties instead of military successes ([16:19]):

  “The press only wants to make the president look bad. But try for once to report the reality.” (Hegseth, [16:19])

---

3. War Powers & Congressional Oversight

Republican Perspective: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX)

• McCaul calls the Iranian threat long-standing, but says the recent opportunity was the chance to “decapitate” leadership ([20:24], [21:20]).
• He admits no evidence of an imminent attack, but justifies the timing as strategic:

  “I actually applaud a president who for the first time in 50 years... has the guts and the courage to take on a regime that has been the largest state sponsor of terror.” (McCaul, [21:37])

• Insists the operation should conclude within 60 days as per the War Powers Act and encourages better administration explanations to the public ([22:59], [25:37]).

Democratic Perspective: Rep. Chrissy Houlihan (D-PA)

• Strongly rejects the President’s authority to declare war without Congress:

  “That's hooey. As my father-in-law would say. Congress and Congress alone declares war.” (Houlihan, [38:17])

• Demands accountability, transparency on goals, off-ramps, and a formal congressional vote ([39:23]).
• Disagrees with Sen. Fetterman's assertion of a safer world, warning of a destabilizing vacuum:

  “We have no evidence that the world is safer. We've just created a vacuum by accident or intentionally.” (Houlihan, [42:14])

---

4. Primary Results & Electoral Implications

Texas and North Carolina Primary Highlights

• Steve Kornacki breaks down results, focusing on Democrat James Talarico’s surprise defeat of Jasmine Crockett for Senate nomination ([31:58]).
  • Talarico powered by high turnout around Austin, white college-educated voters, substantial support in Hispanic areas ([31:58]).
  • Crockett pulled strong Black voter support but insufficient to overcome Talarico’s coalition ([33:38]).
• GOP Senate primary advances to runoff: John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton. Trump teases a coming endorsement to try and avert a costly, divisive battle ([30:53]).
• Incumbent Congressman Dan Crenshaw loses, highlighting the continuing power of Trump's endorsements and an anti-incumbent mood ([33:55]).
• Multiple House races in both parties headed for runoffs or incumbent upsets ([33:55]).

Panel Reactions

• Democratic strategist Antwan Seawright and Republican Sarah Matthews discuss the risks persistent for incumbents and electoral energy building among Democrats ([49:41]).
• Panel notes key polling: Independents disapprove of Trump’s handling by 61%—a crucial number ahead of the midterms ([48:43]).
• Internal Republican dissension: Some Trump voters are unhappy with a new Middle East war, which contradicts Trump’s promise to end endless wars ([49:41], [50:56]).

---

5. Voters’ Voices: Michigan Swing State

• NBC’s Shaquille Brewster interviews voters in Barron County, MI, reflecting a Republican-leaning area with divided sentiment ([44:43]):

  “I'm still utterly confused, still don't understand what the outcome and objectives of this is. I'm very worried about the results.” (Local Republican, [45:19])

• Other Trump supporters voice unwavering support despite personal reservations ([46:13]).
• Even with dissatisfaction, Trump voters show little sign of defecting to Democrats ([46:58]).

---

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• President Trump:

  “Somebody said on a scale of 10, where would you rate it? I said about a 15... you see the tremendous progress that's being made.” ([02:51])

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth:

  “We are just getting started. We are accelerating, not decelerating.” ([03:43])
  “When a few drones get through or tragic things happen, it's front page news... The terms of this war will be set by us at every step.” ([16:19], [51:48])

• Rep. Chrissy Houlihan:

  “That's hooey... Congress and Congress alone declares war and decides whether war is appropriate.” ([38:17])
  “We have no evidence that the world is safer. We've just created a vacuum...” ([42:14])

• Voter in Michigan:

  “I'm still utterly confused, still don't understand what the outcome and objectives of this is.” ([45:19])

• Panelist Dan Marika:

  “Donald Trump's electoral magic in 2024 was his ability to turn out first-time voters, low-propensity voters…” ([48:43])

---

Episode Segments & Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamps | Main Points | | -------------------------------------- | --------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | War in Iran: Admin & Polling | 01:09–06:58 | Public skepticism, White House messaging, Israeli coordination, polling | | War Escalation & U.S. Strategy | 06:58–16:49 | Evacuations, airspace control, losses, leadership crisis in Iran | | War Powers & Congressional Debate | 19:03–26:58 | McCaul (R): Strategic opportunity, need for clear objectives, power split| | Texas & NC Primaries Breakdown | 28:48–35:59 | Talarico’s win, GOP runoff, incumbent losses, statewide patterns | | Dem Response: Rep. Houlihan | 36:02–43:31 | Dems’ Texas hopes, constitutional critique of Trump's war | | Michigan Voter Panel | 44:43–47:42 | Mixed mood, impact on turnout, gas prices, split GOP response | | Post-Primary Political Analysis Panel | 47:42–56:02 | Polling, war messaging, turnout, future party prospects |

---

Tone & Style

• Throughout, the conversation maintains the gravitas of urgent national political affairs, but is also accessible, direct, and occasionally candid—especially in voter interviews and the panel discussion.
• Panelists and guests speak with frank skepticism regarding both the administration’s clarity and Congress's ability to respond in a bipartisan way.

---

Summary

This Meet the Press NOW episode captures a political moment defined by war, electoral turmoil, and deep uncertainty—both in policy and public sentiment. With the midterms approaching, the Trump administration is facing not only a military test in Iran but a political one at home, as polling shows more Americans—especially independents—are deeply uneasy about war, presidential leadership, and the shape of America’s future. Congressional oversight, party strategy, and voter enthusiasm are all in flux, setting the scene for a fiercely contested and unpredictable midterm season.

Transcript

[President Donald Trump]

Lifelock.

[Steve Kornacki]

How can I help?

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

One in four taxpaying Americans has paid the price of identity fraud.

[Kristen Welker]

What do I do?

[Steve Kornacki]

My refund though.

[Kristen Welker]

I'm freaking out.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

Don't worry.

[Steve Kornacki]

I can fix this. Lifelock fixes identity theft guaranteed and gets

[Dan Marika]

your money back with up to $3 million in coverage.

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

I'm so relieved.

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

No problem.

[Steve Kornacki]

I'll be with you every step of the way.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

One in four was a fraud paying American.

[Dan Marika]

Not anymore.

[Steve Kornacki]

Save up to 40% your first year.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

Visit lifelock.com Specialoffer terms apply.

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

Did you know that parents rank financial literacy as the number one most difficult life skill to teach? Meet Greenlight, the debit card and money app for families with Greenlight, you can set up chores, automate allowance and keep an eye on your kids spending with real time notifications. Kids learn to earn, save and spend wisely. And parents can rest easy knowing their kids are learning about money with guardrails in place. Sign up for Greenlight [e-mail] podcast.

[Kristen Welker]

Welcome to MEET the Press Now. I'm Kristen Welker in Washington after a blockbuster primary night in Texas, in North Carolina, where the stakes could not be higher. With the control of Congress up for grabs this November, we'll have much more on the key results and biggest takeaways from the first primaries of the 2026 midterms coming up. But we begin with the intensifying war in the Middle east and the administration defending its military operations in Iran and its efforts to evacuate Americans. Caught in the crossfire. It comes as we have brand new NBC News polling showing voters are skeptical of the mission and the president's handling of it. These are hot off the press. Take a look. 52% of registered voters saying the US should not have taken military action against Iran, 54% saying they disapprove of the president's handling of the situation. Diving deeper. Republicans largely standing behind the president, Democrats largely critical. But take a look. Independent voters, 61% saying they disapprove, compared to just 28% who approve. Today, my NBC colleague Garrett Hake pressing White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt in her first briefing since the war began.

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

Take a look.

[Steve Kornacki]

Does the president believe the country supports the actions that he's taken so far in Iran?

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

I think he does. And I think the president knows the country is smart enough to read past many of the fake news headlines produced

[Kristen Welker]

by people in this room that this action was unjustifiable.

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

Again, this is a rogue terrorist regime that has been threatening the United States, our allies and our people for 47 years. And the American people are smart enough to know that.

[Kristen Welker]

Last hour, President Trump touting the success of the US War on Iran. Take a listen.

[President Donald Trump]

We're doing very well on the war front, to put it mildly. I would say somebody said on a scale of 10, where would you rate it? I said about a 15. For 47 years, we were pushed around and we shouldn't have been. And I think I can say, and you see it as well as I do, you see the tremendous progress that's being made. Their missiles are being wiped out rapidly. Their launches are being wiped out. They're attacking their neighbors. They're attacking their, in some cases, allies or not so long ago allies. And, you know, it's really a nation that was out of control.

[Kristen Welker]

Also this morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth projecting confidence, saying the U.S. is winning, quote, decisively and without mercy and saying the US And Israel will soon have control over Iran's scout skies.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

The two most powerful air forces in the world will have complete control of Iranian skies, uncontested airspace. I hope all the folks watching understand what uncontested airspace and complete control means. It means we will fly all day, all night, day and night, finding, fixing and finishing the missiles and defense industrial base of the Iranian military, finding and fixing their leaders and their military leaders. And as President Trump said, more and larger waves are coming. We are just getting started. We are accelerating, not decelerating.

[Kristen Welker]

Now in that briefing, the Pagan also releasing this stunning video of what it says is the moment a US Submarine launched a torpedo to sink an Iranian warship in international waters. As the US Military campaign accelerates. Right now, the Senate is about to vote on a resolution to rein in the administration's war powers. That vote is expected to fail. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues to work to get Americans stranded in the Middle east out of the region. The White House saying it's working to charter flights and urging Americans to register with the State Department. We're also learning the identities of four of the six US Service members killed after an Iranian drone attack on US Military facility in Kuwait. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt saying today the president will attend the dignified transfer of those American troops. Joining me now is NBC News White House correspondent Monica Alba, NBC News chief foreign correspondent and NBC News senior national security correspondent Courtney Kuby. Richard Engel, of course, is our chief foreign correspondent. Thanks to all of you for being here. Monica, let me start with you and this latest polling that shows a majority of registered voters actually disapprove of the president's handling of the situation in Iran. Any reaction there from the administration? Do you think that could impact the strategy in Iran at all?

[Monica Alba]

Well, I do think it's something that they will be very closely tracking, Christine. I think they are aware of the idea that just five days into a war, Americans have a sense that could be very different five days from now or five weeks from now, depending on how long this conflict actually goes. And if you dive deeper into our new poll and you look at it across party lines, it is fairly polarized. You are seeing mostly Democrats who say they disapprove of that, but there are some Republicans and some independents who have concerns and who are basically saying that they disapprove of this, maybe because they don't know enough about it and maybe they can't justify why the president initially took this decision. And that is really something that the White House and the Trump administration has spent a lot of time talking about, answering questions about in the last couple of days. And I think that is where this story is really going when you talk about it from the polling and from the political perspective, because attitudes can really change and they can shift depending on whether people don't like the explanations that they're getting or whether they're conflicting or confusing. The White House tried to push back on that narrative a little bit today, saying that they feel they've been clear in their objectives. But we know, Christine, that even senior top administration officials have offered varying reasons and justifications for why this massive war began in the first place.

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah. Well, and you also have some new reporting about that phone call between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. What can you tell us about that?

[Monica Alba]

Yeah, and this took place about nine days ago, we understand. Now, look, the prime minister of Israel has been in touch with the president, with the White House repeatedly, consistently urging the US to consider striking Iran to really take the ballistic missile program threat seriously. And now we know that in that phone conversation, the prime minister indicated to the president that he believed, according to Israeli intelligence, that the ayatollah and some of his top deputies, some top Iranian officials, were going to be in the same place at the same time on Saturday. And that is why we understand from the White House that factored into the president's decision making. Now, they said that wasn't the only reason that he decided to strike this past weekend, but it did factor in. In fact, the White House press secretary, Caroline Levitt, today said he acted based on a feeling that was based on, on fact. But that was one of the factors, certainly that made the president decide he wanted to, in conjunction with Israel, launch these massive, massive strikes that ultimately ended up killing the ayatollah and dozens of other leaders. As the president told you later that

[Kristen Welker]

day, Kristen, it's just fascinating. And of course, we've been talking about the effort to try to get the Americans who are stuck in the Middle east out. What's your latest reporting on that, Monica?

[Monica Alba]

And I think the administration has tried to approach this with a little more urgency today after there has been an outcry of confusion and from Americans themselves who are stuck in some of these countries asking for help. Initially, the State Department said try to get out commercially if you can. The airspace is closed in many of these countries. The airports are shut down, flights are canceled. So that was very, very difficult. But we are learning now today that there are other options potentially. In fact, we had the chairman of the Joint Chiefs telling our own Courtney Kubi that there are going to be some spots potentially opening up on military aircraft on C17. So that's one possibility. And in addition to that, the State Department says they are working on getting some flights chartered from the region to the United States, but they don't want to share details on that, given the possible security risks and the timing there

[Kristen Welker]

and certainly an immense amount of urgency to bring those Americans home. Monica, thank you. Richard, let me turn to you. Let's pick up on where Monica left off, which is the effort to try to bring Americans home. What are you hearing, including about the latest on airspace closures?

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

There's a lot of concern. A lot of people in this entire region are trying to figure out their travel plans, trying to get to airports where airports are opening up. Because not every airport is closed in this region. Some flights do appear to be going back online. The number of incoming Iranian strikes is not consistent. It is not everywhere. And there are certain airlines that are trying to find gaps. But this conflict is also spreading to new countries. So air travel is is disrupted all across the region. Land borders are generally the easiest and safest way for people to travel. Right now, for example, just a short while ago, Turkey said that NATO intercepted an Iranian missile that went into Turkish airspace. Until now, the Istanbul airport has been one of the main airports that people have been using to to transit in and out of this region. So when you have a moving conflict, and this very much is a moving conflict, there are thousands, tens of thousands of people trying to get home and not sure where they should go. Another place where the conflict is Expanding right now is Lebanon. Israel just a short while ago launched a new wave of attacks against Lebanon targeting Hezbollah leaders. And the leader of Hezbollah, which is an Iranian backed militia group based in southern Lebanon. In southern Beirut, the leader said that Hezbollah joined this fight, would continue to fight and will fight until the end. So we could see even more of an escalating conflict in Lebanon. Some flights, however, are going back online in Gulf countries. So this is very much a moving target, a moving conflict. And for the people trying to figure get out, it is undeniably, extraordinarily difficult. And many people are nervous, absolutely nervous.

[Kristen Welker]

They're nervous here in the United States, Richard, for their loved ones. Let me ask you about what is happening in terms of the leadership structure inside Iran. There had been a farewell ceremony apparently scheduled to begin today for the Ayatollah Khamenei. It's now been postponed. That's according to Iranian state media. Meanwhile, Iranian leadership saying they're close to choosing a replacement for the Supreme Court supreme leader. Is that accurate? What are you hearing?

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

A lot of conflicting reports. The leadership in Iran is in a state of, of disarray. Iranian officials have already said that the military is operating somewhat independently, that the units of the, the Guard force there are operating on old orders, that they have gone underground, that they're limiting their communication. So you have a government and a military that is already starting to fr. They are. Iran did announce that it is postponing the funeral for the late supreme Leader. They had announced that they were going to elect a new supreme leader soon. There were some reports, including in the New York Times. Other Iranian experts have said that the leading candidate is the late Ayatollah Khamenei's son, Mojtaba. But there's been no confirmation. He has not been, not been announced as the, as the new supreme leader of Iran. And that decision will be critical because they could elect a hardliner who decides to keep this war going at all costs or it is possible that they choose someone that is willing to reach a deal, that is more willing to compromise, potentially negotiate with President Trump. So that is a, that is a critical decision.

[Kristen Welker]

All right, Richard Engel, thank you so much. Please stay safe. Richard, we really appreciate your bringing your report according to us. Thank you for that. Courtney, let me turn to you. There was another briefing at the Pentagon today. What were your key takeaways? Are you getting a sense there may be a strategy shift here?

[President Donald Trump]

No.

[Courtney Kuby]

I mean, they're definitely evolving. The phases or sort of the stages of this plan is evolving and we've been talking about that, but it was interesting to hear the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Kaine, really lay it out today that the US has made, it seems, a lot of effort and seems they've made a lot of success, had a lot of success in taking some of Iran's air defense systems, and that's allowing them to move further into the country and allowing them to take more manned strikes. So the big question is we've been hearing for several days from Marco Rubio, from President Trump about this big new phase that's coming, this big offensive of this, and is that going to be a huge manned aircraft influx deeper into the country based off the way that they were talking about today? That's what it seems like.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, and picking up on that point, the Trump administration reportedly considering arming Kurdish opposition forces to help defend the defeat the Iranian regime. I should say. What are you hearing about that? How quickly could that happen?

[Courtney Kuby]

So that seems to be. It doesn't seem like anything has been decided. They've been in discussions, but that seems like that would sort of be the last or one of the last phases of this.

[Monica Alba]

Right.

[Courtney Kuby]

So once the military mission, which again, they've been telling us about defeating the Navy, defeating the ballistic missile, presumably at some point going after the nuclear program, even though we have not seen that yet, I'm starting to get the sense that's going to be one of the final stages of the military campaign here. And then they're gonna have to turn to this idea of setting the conditions for the potential toppling of this regime, which is already very weakened, but not down and out. So the idea of arming the Kurds is something that, where you could have individuals who are against the Iranian regime who would basically be the people on the ground. Think about something like Syria, right, where you had the Syrian Democratic Forces armed, trained, supported by the U.S. but the U.S. weren't really fighting against the regime. They were supporting the sdf. We might see something like that if, in fact, they decide the US Decides to do this.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, President Trump has been very clear that he said that There could be U.S. casualties. There now have been six U.S. forces killed. Courtney, that was raised today at the briefing. We're learning more about the fallen soldiers. What are you learning?

[Courtney Kuby]

Yeah, that's right. So we know the identities of four of those individuals who were killed. The other two have not yet been identified because they were. They died and were found slightly after the other four. We heard from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He spoke very eloquently today about remembering their sacrifice and their honoring their families and continuing to honor them and their service. But then we had a slightly different tone from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. He was somewhat critical of the fact that the media are focusing so much on these fallen individuals and not on some of the other things that are happening, including the military successes that he says the US Is having. Here's a bit about what he had to say.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

This is what the fake news misses. We've taken control of Iran's airspace and waterways. Without boots on the ground. We control their fate. But when a few drones get through or tragic things happen, it's front page news. I get it. The press only wants to make the president look bad. But try for once to report the reality. The terms of this war will be set by us at every step.

[Courtney Kuby]

Fallen troops on the battlefield will always be front page news.

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah, that is for sure. And there's going to be a lot of focus on that moving forward. Courtney, thank you as always. Good to see you. Now we should note we will have much more from our brand new NBC News poll, including a fresh batch of numbers on the president's political standing and much, much more. This Sunday only on MEET THE press. Coming up next, capital conflicts. I'll speak to both a Republican and Democratic lawmaker about the Trump administration's escalating military operations against Iran and the role of Congress in times of war. You're watching MEET THE PRESS now. Stay with us.

[President Donald Trump]

Thirty years ago, blinds.com broke the mold

[Steve Kornacki]

and made custom window treatments easy for everyone. Over 25 million windows later, we're celebrating

[President Donald Trump]

by giving our customers up to 50% off site wide during our anniversary sale. Whether you DIY it or want a

[Kristen Welker]

pro to handle everything from measure to install, blinds.com has you covered.

[President Donald Trump]

Shop online, access real design professionals and get free samples. Thank you for 30amazing years. Shop the anniversary sale now through March 11th and get up to 50% off

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

site [e-mail] did you know 39% of teen drivers admit to texting while driving. Even scarier, those who text are more likely to speed and run red lights. Shockingly, 94% know it's dangerous, but do it anyway. As a parent, you can't always be in the car, but you can stay connected to their safety with greenlight. Infinity's driving reports monitor their driving habits, see if they're using their phone, speeding and more. These reports provide real data for meaningful conversations about safety. Plus, with weekly updates, you can track their progress over time, help keep your teens safe Sign up for Greenlight [e-mail] podcast Tyler Redicure from 2311 Racing. You think racing's tough?

[Steve Kornacki]

Try getting your friends to agree on dinner plans.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

I'm in.

[Kristen Welker]

Wait, maybe what time again?

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

While they figure that out, I rev

[Steve Kornacki]

up Chumba Casino play on your browser. No downloads necessary. No need to negotiate. Why wait on them when you can spin for yourself? Play [e-mail] let's Chumba.

[President Donald Trump]

No purchase necessary.

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

VGW Group Voidware prohibited by law.

[Steve Kornacki]

CTNC's 21+ sponsored by Jumba Casino.

[Kristen Welker]

Welcome back. Since the Trump administration has launched its war on Iran, one big question is why now? To which administration officials have given shifting explanations about whether there was an imminent threat to the United States.

[Steve Kornacki]

Listen, there absolutely was an imminent threat. And the imminent threat was that we knew that if Iran was attacked and we believed they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us.

[President Donald Trump]

It was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack if we didn't do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that. So if anything, I might have forced to Israel's hand.

[Kristen Welker]

What was the intelligence that suggested that

[Monica Alba]

somehow they became a threat once again that required us to get involved with Operation Epicure?

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

The evidence in front of US since the 12 Day War was that Iran had no intention of actually negotiating a nuclear deal that truly meant they had did not have a pathway to nuclear bomb.

[Kristen Welker]

Joining me now is Republican Congressman Michael McCaul of Texas. He is the Chairman Emeritus of both the House Foreign affairs and House Homeland Security Committees. Thank you so much for joining me, Chairman. Really appreciate it.

[President Donald Trump]

Yeah, thanks for having me.

[Kristen Welker]

So you just heard all of those explanations from the administration about why it launched the war with Iran. Do you have a clear sense of the answer to that question, the why now?

[President Donald Trump]

Yeah, a lot of people ask that question. I say there's been an imminent threat since 1979 when the Ayatollah came into power. And ever since that time, for over five decades, we'd have terror events attacking Americans. They are the biggest roadblock to peace in the Middle East. But, you know, to answer your question, you know, I don't know of any like, immediate attack. They were rebuilding their nuclear weapon systems, their ballistic missiles and their ICBM capability that could hit the United States of America. I think they also saw an opportunity, at least Israel did, to see the Ayatollah convene with its cabinet or, you know, so to speak, in the compound. And it made for a very Good opportunity to decapitate Iranian leadership. And I think that dictated the timing of this, you know, in my judgment.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, you know, and you and others have argued that there's been this threat for 47 years. And I think no one would argue with that. But the question, I guess is how can a threat that's existed for 47 years also be imminent?

[President Donald Trump]

Well, here's the deal. Midnight hammer, they obliterated. They set them back a year or two. They were rebuilding this. However, they were creating intercontinental ballistic missiles. They were not stopping. You know, Trump tries to negotiate, and when negotiations fail, as these did, and they're not negotiating good faith like Maduro did, there will be consequences. I actually applaud a president who for the first time in 50 years since really President Carter, has the, the guts and the courage to take on a regime that has been such the largest state sponsor of terror, largest killer of Americans. But most importantly, they are the roadblock to the Abraham Accord, finalization, normalization between the Arab Gulf states like Saudi and joining with Israel. And once that happens, it's going to be transformational in the Middle east because that threat now has been taken out to a large extent.

[Kristen Welker]

I want to ask you how you see this overall conflict, because quite frankly, President Trump has called it a war. We've heard others in the administration refer to it as a war. Today House Speaker Mike Johnson said we're not at war right now. So I'm curious for your take, is this a war, Congressman?

[President Donald Trump]

Well, it does trigger notification under the War Powers act when you have a conflict in hostile territory, which that's what this is. So they have given notification to the members of Congress. We did have a briefing on this. The clock now is ticking under the War powers Act. Within 60 days, if this operation is not concluded, then it does require an authorization from Congress. From what I can see, the President has given a five week deadline, but in war, you never know what can happen. But I think it is their goal to conclude this operation before the 60 days expire.

[Kristen Welker]

So just to be very clear, you're saying the President should come to Congress before the conclusion of the five weeks.

[President Donald Trump]

If the conflict is not resolved in 60 days, it will require a cessation of those activities unless authorized by Congress. And when it comes to war powers, I think it's always better for the administration to work with Congress to get the side of the American people supportive of this. And we've seen that throughout our history. It's always better when Congress is working with the executive, you know, on, on these issues, but I don't know in this partisan environment, you know, I tried to upgrade the 2001 AUMF after 9, 11 to include modern day threats. And we tried to add the, the proxies of Iran, the Shia proxies, that being Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthi rebels. And yet that was met with opposition by, you know, both the left and the right, to be honest with you. You know, and so I think that was visionary to try to update the aumf, to update it to the modern threats of the both Iran now and the Shia proxies. That would be the AUMF I could envision if we could get bipartisan support.

[Kristen Welker]

Congressman, let me ask you about some of NBC's new polling on Iran. According to our poll, 54% disapprove, 41% approve. So underwater, what do you make of that? If the president's going to war, should the American people not overarchingly support it?

[President Donald Trump]

Well, they should. You would normally be in a honeymoon phase right now, if you will. And but meaning should the president launch

[Kristen Welker]

a war if he doesn't have more support? Should he be launching a war if he doesn't have more support for it?

[President Donald Trump]

Well, I think he needs to explain it and I think he needs to put his best messengers out there, explain what is really happening. And I think also what are the objectives here? I think the American people support the end of the Ayatollah, freeing the Iranian people from oppression for 50 years. What they don't support is an unending bog down war in the Middle East. And I think the administration needs to explain that better. That's not the objective. Our military objective will be completed in five weeks. And then I think the bigger question here is what happens after that. We don't want to get bogged down and we don't have to nation build after this. We don't want to put troops on the ground because they will be targets and magnets for the jihadists. So what is phase two of the operation or the next phase after the military operation is completed? That's going to be the far more difficult one. But that's ultimately up to the Iranian people to decide and we can help them. But you need three things I always talk about as leadership. You need weapons and you need communications. So that has to be part of the next steps. And right now it's not crystal clear.

[Kristen Welker]

All right, Congressman, let me turn now to the results of last night's first primary of the year in your home state of Texas. Democrats got a massive turnout in early data shows there was higher turnout for Democrats than Republicans. Are you concerned and what do you make of the Texas Senate race?

[President Donald Trump]

Well, you know, what I don't want to see is in the Senate race, particularly John Cornyn is a good friend of mine, his deputy attorney general. He has moral integrity. We don't want to see that race drag on. Three more months to beat up our nominee and we have a fairly formidable opponent who was nominated by the Democrats in this race. The latest intelligence I received is that the president is going to very soon endorse in this Republican Senate primary and tell the other candidate to get out of the race. So we'll see how that, how that goes forward. But I don't think the party can afford, you know, three more months of this and quite money, quite frankly, the money that would have to be spent on fighting each other.

[Kristen Welker]

All right, Congressman McCaul, we'll see what happens. President Trump indeed teasing an endorsement could be coming up soon, soon. So we'll all watch online to see what he posts. Really appreciate your perspective. Thanks so much.

[President Donald Trump]

Well, thanks for having me. I appreciate you.

[Kristen Welker]

Absolutely. Coming up, it was a wild night of results out of the marquee races for Texas Senate, and they're still counting the votes in key House races. Steve Kornacki is back at the big board breaking down the takeaways from the first major primary races of the year. The battle for control of Congress is just beginning. Stay with us on MEET THE press. Now,

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

Did you know that parents rank financial literacy as the number one most difficult life skill to teach? Meet Greenlight, the debit card and money app for families. With Greenlight, you can set up chores, automate allowance and keep an eye on your kids spending with real time notifications. Kids learn to earn, save and spend wisely. And parents can rest easy knowing their kids are learning about money with guardrails in place. Sign up for Greenlight [e-mail] podcast.

[Steve Kornacki]

Tyler Redicure from 2311 Racing. You think racing's tough, try getting your friends to agree on dinner plans.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

I'm in.

[Kristen Welker]

Wait maybe what time again?

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

While they figure that out, I rev

[Steve Kornacki]

up Chumba Casino play on your browser. No downloads necessary. No need to negotiate. Why wait on them when you can spin for yourself? Play now with Chumba casino.com let's Jumbo.

[President Donald Trump]

No purchase necessary.

[Steve Kornacki]

VGW group void where prohibited by law. CTNC is 21 plus sponsored by Jamba Casino.

[Kristen Welker]

Welcome back to Meet the Press. Now if it's Wednesday, we have election results and the first primaries of this midterm election year certainly had their share of surprises and some confusion as well. The big story coming overnight with NBC News projecting state Representative James Talarico has defeated Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett to win the Democratic nomination in the race for U.S. senate. Crockett conceding the race this morning to the 36 year old Talarico, who has won more than 53% of the vote. But we don't know his general election opponent yet. NBC News is projecting that the Republican race between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton will advance to a runoff on May 26th with neither candidate able to get to 50% last night. President Trump, however, clearly not keen on Texas Republicans engaging in a bruising battle ahead of the JET general election, saying today on social media that he will be making his endorsement in the race soon and that he will be asking the candidate that I don't endorse to immediately drop out of the race. That post coming after both Republicans ripped into each other last night.

[President Donald Trump]

I've worked for decades to build the Republican Party both here in Texas and nationally. I refuse to allow a flawed, self centered, shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk

[Steve Kornacki]

everything we've worked so hard to build

[President Donald Trump]

over these many years.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

For too long, John Cornyn has turned

[President Donald Trump]

his back on us. For too long, he attacked the border wall by calling it naive and pushed amnesty while our country was being invaded. For too long, he stabbed our president in the back by trying to derail his presidential campaigns and supporting the Democrats lawfare against the president.

[Kristen Welker]

Steve Kornacki joins me from his home away from home, the big board. Steve, great to see you. So you and I were up late last night. Hope you got a few hours of sleep. Tell us how he did it. How did James Talarico pull off his primary victory? And what does that tell us about Talarico's potential chances in a general election? Reminder, folks, a Democrat hasn't won a Senate race in more than three decades in Texas.

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, a couple things I think went into this, Kristen. First of all, you see here, I think you start right around Talarico's political base here, which is in the Austin area, Travis county, right outside of it, too. You saw him run up monster numbers there, get monster turnout to go along with that. And I think that was part of a pattern that you saw throughout the state last night, which is the voters in particular who powered him around Austin and in some other pockets of to the state, a lot of white, college educated, you know, sort of white collar professional voters. We've talked about that demographic becoming more and more Democratic nationally. Being highly engaged in the Trump era, extremely anti Trump, very motivated to turn out and vote. That demographic really got behind Talarico. It delivered big numbers from around his base in Austin, but it also allowed him to make some incursions up here. This is the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex. A ton of votes came out of here. You do see this was Crockett winning in Dallas County. That's the where her district is. But right outside Dallas, you know, north of Dallas, in Collin County, Denton county, you see tall Rico was able to make pretty big incursions in Crockett's backyard. Again, powered by that sort of, you know, white suburban vote that really turned out in droves, turned out for him. And the ultimate difference maker for him, I think, was in South Texas here, heavily Hispanic areas. He beat Crockett, you know, 2 to 1. He beat her by 30 points in county after county here. So all of that, I think, added up to the difference that you see right here. What kept Crockett in it was the black vote. All of the counties that you see are just about all of the counties you see here for Crockett, significant black population there. She clearly won the black vote overwhelmingly in this primary.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, just fascinating to see that turnout. And of course, your point about Hispanics, Steve, that that could very well be a big determining factor once we get to the general election. Let me ask you about some of the House races, though. What were some of your biggest takeaways from the House races, Steve?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, I mean, scary night for incumbents in Texas and probably incumbents nationally saying, you know, what's the atmosphere going to be like when primaries come to their state? You already have one who's gone down. Dan Crenshaw, Republican here in the Houston suburbs. This was the only House Republican incumbent in Texas, Texas not endorsed by Donald Trump. And boy, did it show in the results. Crenshaw losing to Steve Toth. By the way, the part of this district that really did Crenshaw in is right here. This is Montgomery County. No county in America delivered a bigger plurality to Donald Trump in 2024 than this county. So arguably the most pro Trump big county in America sides against the one candidate not endorsed by Trump, incumbent in Texas. You go look in the 18th district here, two Democratic incumbents squaring off against each other. It is going to go to a runoff. A bit of a surprise here. A lot of folks thought that Al Green, longtime incumbent, was the underdog here against Christian Menefee, who was just elected five weeks ago. They are going to go to a runoff. There will be an incumbent obviously who will lose there. How about this one? Colin Allred, Democrat who used to be a House member coming back running against the Democrat who took the seat that he vacated, Julie Johnson. This is going to go to a runoff. But all red leading preliminarily double digit margin over Johnson. There's an incumbent who's in big danger there in the runoff. Another incumbent in big danger, Tony Gonzalez, headed towards a runoff. There's been a scandal involving Gonzalez lately. He finishes behind Brandon Herrera in the preliminary. And then you take a look over even in North Carolina here, here's an incumbent, Valerie Fucci, two term incumbent. She is ahead by 1200 votes, 1% over her challenger Sanders in back, Sanders backed progressive insurgent scattering of votes left here you see we don't have a check mark. We haven't called it yet. But Fousey may have done just enough to survive there, but certainly not enough if you're an incumbent looking on nationally saying how's the atmosphere? It can be tough for an incumbent right now.

[Kristen Welker]

Yeah, incumbents undoubtedly very jittery when they see those results. Steve, thank you so much. It was great to be up late with you watching, watching all of the results come in last night. Great to see you as always.

[Steve Kornacki]

Always fun to do it. Thanks, Kristen.

[President Donald Trump]

All right.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, joining me now is Democratic Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan of Pennsylvania. She's an Air Force veteran and serves on the House Armed Services Committee. Thank you so much for joining me today. Really appreciate it.

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

Thank you for having me. It's good to see you again.

[Kristen Welker]

You too. I do want to get your take on Iran in just a moment. We're going to talk about that. But I have to get your reaction first to these primary results that we saw in Texas where you just heard from Steve Kornacki. Tough night for some incumbents. You also had State Representative James Talarico advancing to the general election. There's still a runoff on the Republican side. President Trump signaling he's going to endorse soon. What do you make of Democrats chances of actually winning this Texas Senate seat, which they haven't won in more than 30 years.

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

I'm pretty enthusiastic about them. You saw a lot of enthusiasm in the voter in the population in Texas from the Democratic side of things. You saw more Democrats, I believe, turn out to vote just in general than Republicans did. The enthusiasm seems to be there. I was really struck by a headline in the New York Times that that reflected somehow that Mr. Talarico was, you know, the good guy won, so to speak. Either candidate would have been an amazing candidate. But what I like about the way that Mr. Tallarico ran is he ran trying to bring everybody together, including independents and moderate Republicans. And I think that's a really good way in the general election to move forward as well. I know you just had Mr. McCall on and he said we can't afford three more months of Republican ennui about who's going to run in Texas. We can't afford three more months of the Republican Party, full stop. And so I'm very, very hopeful that we have the opportunity to be able to make some significant changes in the House and also in the Senate in November.

[President Donald Trump]

All right.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, the race is going to be fascinating, that is for sure. I do want to talk about Iran. You mentioned my conversation with Congressman Michael McCaul, which I had a little bit earlier in the program. You obviously heard him tout the president's decisive action as he described it. He argues the president has the authority to launch this war without Congress for now. How do you respond to that? He says if it gets to five weeks, he's going to need to go to Congress. How do you respond to that?

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

With all respect to former chairman McCall, who is a good friend and who I admire, that's hooey. As my father in law would say. Congress and Congress alone declares war and decides whether war is appropriate. Iran, everyone agrees, all of us agree, as a very bad actor on the global stage and has been for more than a few decades. But that does not justify a war being declared by the President without including the Congress at all. And no matter how many days we set for it, that's an arbitrary metric. He should have and still should be coming to the Congress hat in hand, giving him, giving us the explanation for what it is. That would require the kind of actions that's already been taken and what sort of actions will continue to be taken and what the off ramps are.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, and let me ask you, because the War Powers Resolution facing an uphill battle. But even if it were to pass, this war has already been launched. Would it not be after the fact?

[Monica Alba]

No.

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

And this is one of the things that frustrates many of us who are here. Our Republican colleagues had that sort of backwards logic of we can't vote on it before it happens and once it's happened, we can't vote on it because it's already happened. And here we are and now we're in this place where we are going to vot on a war powers resolution of sorts, that is declaring that the President shouldn't go any further without the consent of Congress. And you're not wrong to say that. I'm not certain whether it will pass. And even if it does pass, I'm pretty certain that it won't go anywhere because the president will be able to to veto it if it were a certain form of law. And it may just die where it is. And that is, I think, still important. I think it's very important that every single representative of the people of America should be asked to be on record for whether this is a lawful war and whether or not their taxpayer dollars, their treasure and the people's blood, the blood of the six people who have already died should be should be authorized to be expended. And so far that hasn't happened. And that's what the Constitution obliges us to do.

[Kristen Welker]

Let me ask because you were among several of your colleagues who released a video earlier this year reminding military and intelligence service members that they can, in your words, refuse illegal orders, orders that they deem to be illegal. Do you think the strikes against Iran fall into that category?

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

You know, I've been mulling that one over and I think it's an interesting question. I think that you are to assume that the orders of the President are lawful orders. And as we wrestle with this issue, we should assume that those are lawful orders. That video was referring to some of the things that are happening either in Venezuela or also within our own borders themselves. How we use our reserves, how we use our National Guards domestically is important for us to be aware of. And I wasn't saying anything that isn't just stating the law. And I think that that was affirmed by the grand jury that met and all 12 of the regular everyday citizens affirm that my colleagues and I were literally simply stating the law.

[Kristen Welker]

I do want to play what Senator John Fetterman from your state of Pennsylvania and then get your take on the other side.

[Steve Kornacki]

Take a listen after they've eliminated their entire leadership of one of the worst

[President Donald Trump]

regimes in the world.

[Dan Marika]

And I think this is a good thing.

[President Donald Trump]

And now I don't know why we all can't agree that the world is

[Dan Marika]

better, safer and it's more just and

[President Donald Trump]

now there's can be real peace.

[Kristen Welker]

Do you agree with him on that broad point that the world is now Safer?

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

I would 100% disagree. Again, with respect for my my senator from the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, we have no evidence that the world is safer. We've just created a vacuum by accident or intentionally, this administration has eliminated many of the people who they themselves had identified for the next in line for succession in terms of leadership in Iran. And the idea that we are now in this sort of wait and see ambivalent place where Secretary Rubio seems to and Secretary Hesit seems to think that their responsibility is only to break it and not to buy it, we are in a really difficult place where I can't argue, I can't even begin to conceive of the fact that Mr. Fetterman would believe that we are in a safer and more secure place in the world that we are in now. There's a path, a very, very narrow one, where in some metaverse somewhere in the future, it could be a safer world. But I would argue that the more likely scenario is a much more dangerous and destabilized world, as we have seen historically in places like Iraq or places like Afghanistan or places like Vietnam. You can go further back still as well.

[President Donald Trump]

All right.

[Kristen Welker]

Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan, really appreciate it. Thank you so much.

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

Thank you.

[Kristen Welker]

And still to come, swing state voters speak out. We are on the ground in one of the most critical presidential battlegrounds, talking to voters about where they stand on the war against Iran and the Trump agenda. Stay with us on MEET THE PRESS now. Welcome back. As we noted earlier, the majority of registered voters disapprove of both the US military action in Iran and President Trump's handling of the situation. 52% say the US should not have taken military action against Iran in brand new NBC News polling. And 54% say they disapprove of the president's handling of the situation. The poll coming 16 months after President Trump won an election in which he campaigned against endless wars. NBC News correspondent Shaquille Brewster joins me from St. Joseph, Michigan, a swing state that, of course, helped propel President Trump to victory in 2024. Shaq, so you're in Barron county, which President Trump won by almost 15 percentage points back in 2024. What are voters telling you there about the war in Iran?

[Steve Kornacki]

Well, Kristen, I've been hearing a mix of anger, support and even concern. Folks here have pointed to the rise in gas prices that they're already noticing. They say they're heartbroken by the loss of life among US Service members and civilians in the Middle East. But when you listen to folks across the political spectrum, you hear very similar sentiments even among some Republicans here in this Republican leaning district. I want you to listen to some of the conversations that I've been having starting with a Republican or a man who says he's a traditional middle of the road, in his words, Republican, Listen to what he said, among others.

[President Donald Trump]

I'm still utterly confused, still don't understand what the outcome and objectives of this is. I'm very worried about the results.

[Steve Kornacki]

How does what you're seeing in Iran impact what you do this November?

[President Donald Trump]

The first thing I look at is who the words and rhetoric being used

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

by the different candidates and those that most match.

[President Donald Trump]

What I'm hearing out of Washington and out of Trump are the people that I will not vote for. We backed up Israel. Israel made the first strike. We must be loyal to our friends. I'm in favor of anything the president does because I support the president. Lines have been drawn in the sand. And if you are going to draw lines in the, in the sand and you are not going to support what the country stands for, get out

[Steve Kornacki]

now. One thing to watch, Kristen, are the potential electoral impacts here. You know, this is a state with a competitive and open Senate race, with a competitive and open governor's race. So if there's that dissatisfaction that translates across the political spectrum, that could have an impact on how voters view November, and it could be something that's animating for one side or the other.

[Kristen Welker]

Absolutely. And it was so interesting to hear from the final gentleman you spoke with there who said he supports whatever the president does. I wonder, in your conversations with Trump supporters, is their support, in fact, unwavering, including on this critical issue, Shaq, because again, as we said, this is what the president campaigned on.

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

Yeah.

[Steve Kornacki]

And this is where it gets interesting. I spoke to one person who said he voted for President Trump three times. So 2016, 2020, 2024. And he said that a big factor in that was the president's promise to end wars and not to start new wars. And he said he was unhappy with the fact that we're seeing this military action in Iran. But when I asked, does this impact how you view your vote? Do you regret your vote and would you consider voting for Democrats in the future? He very quickly rejected that idea. He said, no, he doesn't like everything Trump does, but he's not moving away from the president on this. So that is something to continue watching, because if that feeling holds, then it might not be as animating for folks as you might expect.

[Kristen Welker]

And it's all about whether voters are animated when it's time to turn out and vote. Shaq, thank you. Thank you. And thanks for those great interviews. We really appreciate it. Joining me now is today's panel Dan Marika, co anchor of the Washington Post Early Brief newsletter Antwan Seawright, Democratic strategist and founder and CEO of Blueprint Strategies and Sarah Matthews, spokesperson for Home of the Brave and White House deputy press secretary during Donald Trump's first presidency. Thanks to all of you for being here. After what I know was a very late night, it's a bleary eyed panel. You look great, Dan, as always. Let me, let me start with the polling, our new polling out, Dan, cause it gives a window into how voters feel about this conflict so far. So far, 54% disapprove, 41% approve. If you break it down by party, not surprisingly, more Republicans approve of this war than disapprove. And Democrats of course, strong disapproval, 90%. Dan, what do you make of these figures? What does it say?

[Dan Marika]

I actually think the number that matters the most in that is, is the independents disapproval number. Donald Trump's magic, electoral magic, you would say in 2024 was his ability to turn out first time voters, people, low propensity voters, people who maybe didn't identify as Democrats and Republicans decided to turn out because they liked something he was talking about. The key to the midterms are going to be whether those folks turn out again with Donald Trump not on the ballot. And if they have any friction, I mean we talk about friction when you're buying something online, there's actually electoral friction as well. There's any friction to convince them to come out and support a Republican who maybe even Trump has endorsed, it's going to be a real issue. And that 61% saying that they don't support the way he has handled this is a big number. Of course it matters what Republicans think about his handling. And that number is fairly large from those who disapprove. But I do think it's those independents that will be determinative in the midterms and whether Donald Trump has a successful midterms of turning out people who he turned out in 2024 or if Democrats can sweep back into power.

[Kristen Welker]

And Sarah, we saw last night in Texas, for example, the enthusiasm with Democrats turning out for their candidates. And that's the type of thing, if you're a Republican strategist, you're thinking about the general election, you're thinking about how to get those enthusiasm and those turnout numbers up. What do you make of the polling on Iran and the fact, quite frankly, that we are starting to see some fissures within the MAGA base with some saying, hey, wait a minute, this is not what the President campaigned on. Yeah, as we were talking about with independents, obviously that's not good when you're heading into a midterm election in this upcoming November. And then, but with Republicans, we're even seeing backlash. Even these far right Republican influencers are coming out and saying, hey, you campaigned on being the guy who would lower gas prices. You campaigned on being the guy who would end endless wars. And now we are seeing our gas prices are spiking and he's entered into this new conflict with Iran with no end in sight. There is no long term strategy. And I feel like there's been a lot of mixed messag from the administration on. Is this a war or is this an operation? Even on Capitol Hill, senators and members of Congress don't know what to call this. And so I think that that is confusing voters and they are frustrated because Trump is now breaking multiple campaign promises and these aren't the first campaign promises we've seen him break. But I just think that this is a tough thing to battle with if you're a Republican on the ballot in, in November because you're going to have

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

to answer for these things.

[Kristen Welker]

Sarah, you, you take me to my next question. Let's look at some of that mixed messaging that Sarah references. We have it here. Is it a war? Let's listen to what people are saying.

[Steve Kornacki]

Do you call this a war? Right now I call it Operation Epic Fury.

[President Donald Trump]

It's limited in its scope, its time and its mission.

[Kristen Welker]

The mission is being accomplished.

[Courtney Kuby]

I think it'll be done quickly.

[Steve Kornacki]

We're not at war right now. We're four days in to a very

[President Donald Trump]

specific, clear mission and operation.

[Steve Kornacki]

President Trump had the authority to conduct

[Dan Marika]

this very limited operation under Article 2

[President Donald Trump]

and the War Powers Resolution Act.

[Kristen Welker]

And this was Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Take a listen.

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

The terms of this war will be set by us at every step.

[President Donald Trump]

We have unlimited middle and upper ammunition,

[Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth]

which is really what we're using in this war.

[Kristen Welker]

Antoine, respond to what you're hearing. And how do you see Democrats deploying some of this mixed messaging? Will they get into it or no? Will they stay focused on issues like affordability?

[Dan Marika]

Well, I think the Democrats have to stay focused on affordability because that's going to yield us long term electoral success. Most of the time when Donald Trump does these random actions like Iran, it's usually to distract from a larger issue that the American people. Obviously he's sucking wind with his base. I think every poll is showing that. And so he has to do these things to try to rally the base. One of the Most important numbers I've looked at in your polling is the Republican, Republican base number.

[President Donald Trump]

Why?

[Dan Marika]

Because Trump will not be on the ballot in the midterms. So there's some sort of implications of what that means for general Republican turnout. You talked about enthusiasm last night. Obviously, there's been a surge in Democratic enthusiasm. And I think that's going to matter going into midterms. The question one day, or the larger questions will be whether or not Trump voters or Republican voters will become one issue, voters going into November.

[Kristen Welker]

Dan, it's a great question. And I turn to you now to pick up on this mixed messaging. Do you get the sense that the president, that his top advisers and allies are going to start to explain this war to the American people? Because that's, I think you even heard Congressman McCaul acknowledge that saying, like, there's still so many questions.

[Dan Marika]

Yeah, I think you're seeing that uncertainty in the polling and the way that people responded. I mean, Donald Trump has a lot of things, a very talented campaigner. Obviously, he's not message disciplined. You know that quite well. He doesn't really stick to a message. And he might call it a war one day and the next day he'll try and change what he's calling it. That will complicate things for sure. I think what's interesting is in past wars, we have seen presidential approval actually boost after a war, especially in the first few weeks that hasn't happened here. And have to wonder if it is partly the messaging of, well, it's a war, it's not a war. Americans don't really know how to think about this issue. And that might be kind of a lagging indicator, per se, of where they feel, how they feel about Donald Trump right now.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, yeah. And Dan, looming this Iran conflict loomed over the midterms last night in Texas. What were your key takeaways? Tough night for some incumbents. James Talarico pulled off a victory. Senator Cornyn, Ken Paxton in a runoff. Right now, both candidates looking for a Trump endorsement.

[Dan Marika]

Yeah, it's gonna be expensive, that runoff, especially if Donald Trump doesn't weigh in and endorse in that race. I think it's kind of the perfect moment for Democrats. They have Talarico, who is someone who is seen as someone who's on the rise, a national figure who can win over more moderate voters, especially in a place like Texas. I do think there is this prove it moment, especially for Democrats in Texas. They have been told, Democrats have been told for a decade that they're going to turn Texas Blue donors have been told for a decade that now is your moment federal. Rourke, is it? There's a lot of like there have been enough of these pitches made, especially Democratic donors and operatives and voters as well. There's a prove it moment. Can Democrats actually deliver after a decade?

[Kristen Welker]

Okay, we've got a minute left for

[Dan Marika]

you guys to debate. The environment's different. Candidate quality is different. Environment was great in 2018 as well. I think the environment's a little more target rich for us, a little more fertile ground in Texas. Obviously voter registration, demographics and geographics matter. So look for us to put together a unique coalition that we have not put together before in a midterm election.

[Kristen Welker]

I will say on Texas, I think obviously if Ken Paxton is the nominee, that would be best case scenario for Democrats and being able to run a scandal plague Paxton against Talarico. 36 year old former public school teacher, quotes the Bible regularly, is a great communicator for the Democratic Party. But the thing is, I think there's a clear path for Democrats to take back control of the Senate through other states like Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, where they'll have better chances. But Talarico will give Democrats, Republicans a run for their money. And Republicans are going to have to spend a lot more.

[Dan Marika]

You have to play everywhere to win anywhere. So we're playing in battleground Texas.

[Kristen Welker]

Well, it is going to be fascinating as it always is. Thank you so much for a great conversation. Dan, Antwan and Sarah, appreciate it. We are back tomorrow with more MEET the Press. Now there's more ahead on NBC News.

[Congresswoman Chrissy Houlihan]

Now

[Greenlight Advertiser / Narrator]

did you know that parents rank financial literacy as the number one most difficult life skill to teach? Meet Greenlight, the debit card and money app for families. With Greenlight, you can set up chores, automate allowance and keep an eye on your kids spending with real time notifications. Kids learn to earn, save and spend wisely. And parents can rest easy knowing their kids are learning about money with guardrails in place. Sign up for Greenlight [e-mail] podcast.