President Donald Trump (2:42)

The war in Iran is going along swimmingly. That's the way war goes, right? Military operation I Don't call it a war. The gas will go down as soon as the war is over. It'll drop like a rock. Even with the war. You know, we just hit a new high on the economy. Think of it, we had a new high. We have the best economy. The stock market just now hit a new high during the war or the military operation, whatever you'd like to call it, when the war ends. Gasoline prices are going to tumble when the war ends, which shouldn't be too long. They want to make a deal so badly, but they're not there yet.

Kristen Welker (3:20)

It comes as President Trump's approval rating has hit new lows due to the war and its impact on energy prices. New Polling shows just 19% of Americans believe U.S. military actions in Iran have been successful. 61% of Americans say using military force in Iran was a mistake. Putting this war around the same level of disapproval as the war in Iraq in 2007 when the US was forced to surge troops to combat rising violence. Amid the multi year quagmire, half of Americans now also saying they believe gas prices will get worse over the next year. Prices at the pump rose 9 cents just overnight to a new wartime high of $4.39 a gallon. It's the biggest one day jump since early March, just days after the US launched strikes on Iran. The president also saying he's not satisfied with Iran's latest proposal to end the war, while doubling down on his frustrations with Tehran's leadership. Take a look.

President Donald Trump (4:19)

I would say that I am not happy. Their leadership is very disjointed, very argumentative with each other. They come back, one says one thing, one says another. They're very confused. They've got to come up with the right deal. At this moment, I'm not satisfied.

Kristen Welker (4:39)

Joining me now is our terrific team, NBC News White House correspondent Monica Alba, NBC News chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles, NBC News senior national security correspondent Courtney King, and energy industry analyst John Kilda, founding partner of Again Capital. Thank you all for starting us off. Monica, let me go to you first. You asked President Trump today about that critical question about the war authorization you obtained, the letter he sent to Congress. What can you tell us?

Monica Alba (5:07)

Yeah, Kristen, this is really something that the administration was starting to sort of lay the groundwork for. In the last couple of days. You had the Defense Secretary Pete Hegset saying that he thought that the current cease fire meant that that 60 day clock effectively stops or means that we' in a pause. And that's exactly the rationale that the president laid out today in a letter to both chambers of Congress saying that he doesn't think he needs to ask for any kind of official or formal approval because he's not asking for an extension, he says, and because he says essentially that the cease fire from April 7th that was extended means that the hostilities have, quote, terminated. Now, what this doesn't address and what is really key here, Kristen, is what this means for the naval blockade and some fighting that we do know went on between a US Navy destroyer and an Iranian cargo ship on April 19. So this doesn't address all of that, but it also doesn't take future military action off the table. In fact, in the letter, the president writes that he thinks he will keep Congress updated and that this could change, effectively restarting the clock potentially, if he does decide to go ahead with some military strikes in the coming days.

Panelist/Guest (6:12)

Kristen?

Kristen Welker (6:13)

Monica, let's talk about some of this mixed messaging that we're hearing from the White House, the president, some of his top officials saying it is a war. You have the defense secretary saying it's not a war. What do you make of this mixed messaging? What are sources inside the administration telling you? Is there a concern about it?

Monica Alba (6:30)

And look, the president has basically called this everything. He called it an excursion initially. He called it a little journey. He has, in that montage you've been playing, referred to it many different ways, even within one same event or answering questions just there. He sort of talks about it in completely different tenses, like the war has concluded or well, when the war is over, he says you're going to see gas prices come down. He really has said everything possible on this. And so when you ask the White House why the president seems to sort of change his tune on this or why he shifts it, they have not yet completely said what we've heard from lawmakers, which is they've tried to make the argument that this isn't a war. The president very clearly calls this a war and he does believe it is that. But they do seem to sometimes try to put some distance between that kind of language when they're talking about how active this is. But again, we know that the president has been presented with options that could resume bombing military operations in the way that we saw them in the beginning, beginning of this conflict. But what's really important to point out and remember here is that the White House had said this was going to be a four to six week operation. We are now well beyond week eight, Kristen, and this still has not wrapped up in any official sense.

Kristen Welker (7:40)

It's such an important point, Monica. The president set to travel to China in just a few weeks. What are you hearing about that trip is the fact that the war in Iran is ongoing. Could it interrupt those travel plans?

Monica Alba (7:53)

We know that it's a factor and that is because that trip has already been postponed once because of the war against Iran. They moved it back to this mid May deadline. The president today said that he's really looking forward to the summit, looking forward to traveling to Beijing. So for now, the plan is proceeding as scheduled. But I can tell you from conversations with White House officials, they really don't want to have to move it again. They're unsure whether they even could at this point. So this is a factor in the conversations about what might happen next with Iran. It's not the only contributing factor. But we do know that it's an important part of the discussion because I'm told this trip is a real priority for the president and he does want to make sure he can get there without there being anything on the Iran front that has to alter the plans.

Kristen Welker (8:34)

Yeah, he doubled down on just how important he thinks that trip is again today. And talking to all of you on the lawn, Monica Alba starting us off at the White House. Monica, thank you so much. Ryan, let me turn to you now. Democrats have almost uniformly been opposed to this war since the start, but we are starting to hear more opposition from Republicans. What are you hearing?

Ryan Nobles (8:53)

And I don't even know if I'd call it opposition, but concern that they're not being looped in. In fact, some of the Republicans I've talked to have said I want to support this war. I want to be able to go back and tell my constituents that this war is a good idea. But if you're not keeping me looped in on exactly what the strategy is and what the end game is, it makes it impossible for me to do that. And so that's where I think the next stage of this goes. Republicans getting more engaged in can in getting the administration to be more forthcoming. And you heard a little bit of that from Senator Lisa Murkowski before they left for their rece. Take a listen.

Kristen Welker (9:27)

This is an authorization, but is also a restraint. It's not a blank check. It would ultimately ensure that Congress is engaged. AUMFs should precede wars, not be enacted in their midst.

Kathy Park (9:45)

That wasn't a choice for us here.

Kristen Welker (9:47)

But it cannot be used as an excuse to abandon our responsibilities.

Ryan Nobles (9:53)

So when you listen to that, at no point does she say it's a bad idea. At no point does she say, I don't think the president should be doing this. She just says, I want to be a part of this process. The problem, though, Kristen, is that you are starting to hear rank and file Republicans say that we're hearing nothing from Republican leadership in both the House and Senate. Their attitude is let the administration do whatever the heck they want. And that's been their posture from the very beginning.

Kristen Welker (10:15)

So that's the big divide. What, if any recourse, do rank and file Republicans have at this point?

Ryan Nobles (10:19)

So I think the breaking point will come when they come asking for money. And that's usually where Congress has the ability to exert their most authority. They control the power of the purse. The Pentagon's not going to go magically find another pile of money to continue spending what is essentially $25 billion every two months, depending on how long this will go. They're going to need a supplemental package of some kind. They're not going to be able to get the approval for that without getting specifically buy in for Republicans, but likely they're going to need at least a handful of Democrats unless they think they can do this through reconciliation, which the folks that I'm talking to are very skeptical that this would make it through a reconciliation review.

Kristen Welker (10:59)

That's where it starts to get really complicated. Courtney, you have new reporting, meanwhile, that in the midst of this cease fire, Iran may be taking steps to reconstitute its military program. What are you hearing? What are you learning?

Courtney King (11:12)

And the reality is both sides are actually doing it. So Iran, we know that only about half of their ballistic missile and drone stockpile were destroyed during the war, the strikes by the US and the Israeli military. So we now know that they are digging some of these out. So you'll remember that during the war we were talking about the US Taking these strikes with these giant penetrating bombs where they would penetrate down inside these vertical silos with ballistic missiles. So in some cases they hit the tops of those, but they didn't actually destroy the missiles underneath. They can dig them out. And in some cases, the Iranians themselves buried their launchers, their missiles, their drones. So they're getting ready should in fact offensive combat operations restart. The US Is doing the same, though. They have brought in the USS George H.W. bush and a brand new carrier they just got out of training. They've got a brand new carrier air wing. So fresh pilots. We did learn just just moments ago actually that the USS Gerald R. Ford, that was the third carrier strike group there, it has now left CENTCOM. It's finally heading home after about an 11 month, pretty brutal deployment, but there still is that additional firepower. The reality is, US Official tells me that they actually are in better shape militarily, the US than they were on February 27 should, in fact, combat operations restart.

Kristen Welker (12:22)

Well, and Courtney, it comes as President Trump huddled with his national security team to talk about potential options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Where do those talks stand? What are the options he's considering?

Courtney King (12:32)

So we, I mean, the president himself said that they were telling him about the possibility of sort of finishing this job or finishing this war or doing nothing. The reality is there's also a lot of options in between, depending on what the president decides to do. A military option for reopening the Strait is tough. Okay, that would be very difficult. It would take a tremendous amount of firepower and a tremendous number of US Troops to do it. And I don't know if that's the kind of thing that they would do here. Instead, it seems more as if they're looking to send a message to the Iranians as part of this. There's no question that the talks right now, or whatever we're calling this, because they're not really talking, whatever this effort is at peace is very stalled. And so I think there is some hope that they can do something that would sort of restart that or get the Iranians to maybe come to the table again. And it looks as if they're looking at options that include kinetic options.

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Kristen Welker (14:53)

And we are back with energy industry analyst John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital. John, thank you for reestablishing your connection with us. We appreciate it. So let's, so let's just start with where we left off. The fact that we've seen this surge in gas prices, what do you make of it?

John Kilduff (15:10)

We're going to continue to go higher. We're ripping through our available supplies that have been stored up before the war had happened because of market conditions. Wasn't a purposeful thing. And US gasoline prices are likely headed towards the $5 mark next stop, no doubt.

Kristen Welker (15:25)

And how quickly you say the next stop, how quickly do you think prices could surge above $5? Because I was surprised to see how much they'd gone up overnight.

John Kilduff (15:35)

And we're seeing the data come in and we're, we're now able to measure just how much global oil supplies and refined product supplies like gasoline and diesel fuel are being drawn down. We probably have another three to four weeks left before this situation gets really extreme. So just in time for Memorial Day. At this point, if there's no peace deal or if the strait isn't open somehow, some way, I don't care if they make peace or not, then we'll be at the $5 mark just in time for the summer driving season.

Kristen Welker (16:02)

Well, President Trump said his blockade would cause Iran's oil industry to, quote, unquote, explode. What have the impacts of the blockade been on the broader oil market?

John Kilduff (16:14)

I mean, theoretically, the Iranians, like the other Arab countries in the region, need to get their oil out because they don't have that much storage. But right now, the Iranians are handling it. They have empty vessels that they're continuing to load. They still have on inland stor facilities available to them. So this isn't like a tomorrow situation where the Iranian oil industry implodes. It's going to be another several weeks before that situation gets extreme for them as well. So again, we're all on this collision path towards a real energy crisis. Come, come. In the June time period, there's no doubt about it.

Kristen Welker (16:52)

You have Iran claiming it controls the strait, the U.S. claiming it controls the the strait. Which does the oil market seem to believe?

John Kilduff (17:02)

Well, the oil market sort of follows the lead of the insurance industry, which won't ensure the ships going through right now because the Iranians, they don't really control it, but they are making enough trouble and causing enough doubt about your ability to transit the traits, transit the straits safely. He tried to say that you can't go through, it won't go through and it's effectively closed. So all of this is effective stuff because we can't guarantee safe passage to any of the vessels right now. So as a result of that, the Iranians are basically blackmailing the world here and not allowing anything to get through by their threats.

Kristen Welker (17:39)

John Kilda, thank you so much for your great information. We really appreciate it.

President Donald Trump (17:45)

Thank you.

Kristen Welker (17:46)

And we are following breaking news. President Trump holding his first public event since Saturday night's attack at the White House Correspondent Dinner. You're looking at live pictures here of the Villages Retirement Community in Florida where the president is speaking right now. The event coming as we learn more about last Saturday night's attack here in Washington with the Justice Department releasing this new video of the alleged gunman Cole Thomas Allen, charging through a security checkpoint with a shotgun in his hands. The Secret Service director says it appears Allen fired the shot that struck a Secret Service agent who was wearing a bulletproof vest.

Secret Service Director (18:20)

All the evidence that I've seen, the suspect shot our officer point blank range with a shotgun.

Ryan Nobles (18:28)

Our officer heroically returned fire while being

Kristen Welker (18:31)

shot point blank range in the chest

Ryan Nobles (18:33)

with a shotgun and was able to

Kristen Welker (18:35)

get off five shots.

Secret Service Director (18:36)

So the one officer that returned fire

Ryan Reilly (18:39)

is the same officer that was shot by the suspect?

Secret Service Director (18:43)

That's correct.

Kristen Welker (18:46)

NBC News correspondent Kathy park joins us now from Summertville, Florida. With me also is NBC News senior justice reporter Ryan Reilly. Kathleen, let me start with you. Describe the security presence at today's event.

Kathy Park (19:01)

Hey, Kristen. Well, security has certainly been heightened ever since a White House correspondent's dinner last weekend in Washington. President Trump took to the podium just a few minutes ago and he kicked off his remarks by saying, what's more secure than the villages? And Kath, Kristen, it is worth noting that all of the attendees had to RSVP before coming into this auditorium. And members of the media also were screened pretty heavily before we even got to these risers. It's unclear exactly how many people are in attendance at this hour, but we were told ahead of this program that they would close the doors and deny entry to anyone once they reach capacity Now, Kristen, yesterday at a gaggle with reporters, President Trump said that looking ahead, he will not be wearing any sort of bulletproof vest because it would add a couple of pounds to his figure. So obviously he kind of said that in Jess. But more seriously, he says that he is not concerned about future assassination attempts. He kind of doubled down on that remark before heading to Florida this afternoon. But Kristen, obviously this is just one of several high profile events that President Trump is scheduled to attend. There is a UFC match expected to happen outside of the White House. Also the anniversary, the 250th anniversary of America as well as World cup events. And former federal security experts have said that this will be a very busy summer and we need to prepare. Now, Kristen.

Kristen Welker (20:37)

Yeah, and we know that the White House is reviewing the security for those 250 events. You're absolutely right. Kathy, let me ask you, you've been there talking to his supporters. What are they saying? Obviously he's facing low approval ratings overall, but that is a very Trump friendly audience there.

Kathy Park (20:57)

Yeah, you got that right. Chris said, I think it's safe to say it almost feels like a political rally here. You see folks wearing red, white and blue there. They're donning make America great again hat. You can feel the patriotism. You can see the patriotism in this room. And Kristen, we had a chance to talk to some of these attendees about President Trump's actions and decisions of the last couple of months. Here's what they told us.

Panelist/Guest (21:22)

Take a listen.

Kristen Welker (21:23)

Honestly, it's not that different than when Biden was in there, other than the diesel's a little higher and we do have a diesel truck. But apples, apples maybe diesels 30, 40 cents higher than it was for years under Biden. So I do feel like if we have to live with high gas prices for a little bit, it'll help us. It's still better than four years of it. They were much higher for much longer of a term under the previous administration.

Kathy Park (22:00)

And currently this is going to be

Kristen Welker (22:01)

a short term issue for us. But the most important part, and that's why we're given all of us have given Donald Trump an A plus. An A is because of the fact that it's so much better for us to be able to put up with

Kathy Park (22:15)

a little bit of something right now

Kristen Welker (22:17)

versus having Iran with a nuclear bomb.

Kathy Park (22:24)

And Kristen, the president is very much speaking to his base here, the the largest retirement community in the country with more than 100,000 residents, residents who tend to lean Republican. Kristen, great.

Kristen Welker (22:37)

Kathy park, thank you so much for joining us with all of that reporting. We really appreciate it. Ryan, let me turn to you now. There's this new video that was released yesterday of Saturday night's attacks. Attack. What was the biggest takeaway for you?

Ryan Reilly (22:52)

Yeah, I mean, obviously it's extremely compelling video. There is also a moment that our our colleague Kelly o' Donnell has gotten some reporting about. Just before this moment, there seems to be a dog sort of following the suspected shooter into this past these doors and sort of seemed to be alerting on him at the time. What Kelly ODonnell is reporting is that there was not this dog was meant to sniff out explosives. Might have known because the basically since the door opened, the airflow might have changed a little bit. So that wouldn't necessarily be something that a dog would alert on any gunpowder or anything of that nature, a gun that hadn't yet fired. And so there's but there's been obviously a lot of criticism and speculation and conspiracy theories that have been sparked off of this new video. And what's interesting about it is the government really didn't have to release this video. And I think that's an important point here because yesterday they had this hearing where the judge actually where the because the defense had conceded to detention, there wasn't a need for the argument. They didn't need to put it out the video, they didn't need to make their their argument. And the judge and the prosecution, prosecution wanted to go forward anyway. And the judge sor said that's unusual. And then lo and behold, a few hours later, they filed all of these this evidence on the docket and also posted that video on Twitter, on social media. And so we'll have to see how the judge is going to react to that because first and foremost, the first priority of prosecutors is supposed to be making sure you get that conviction over the line. Putting out additional evidence has the potential effect of sort of poisoning the jury even more and potentially jeopardizing in some small way an ultimate conviction here, here.

Kristen Welker (24:35)

Well, in terms of the charges that Cole Thomas Allen is facing, Secret Service director saying it appears he did in fact fire the shot that struck the Secret Service officer. Why then is he not facing additional charges if that's the case? And could he wind up facing additional charges?

Ryan Reilly (24:52)

Yeah, federal authorities have said that additional charges are possible and probably likely in this case. But overall, the lead charge, the assassination attempt here is always going to be the lead charge because that has the longest prison exposure. Right. So if you're talking about an assault, assault in a federal officer, you're still only talking even with a deadly weapon, you're still talking about 20 years. But if you plot to kill the president, you're looking at a life sentence. So, I mean, that's going to be his heaviest charge and the one that is most important going forward, which is he's already been, he's already been charged with anyway. And Evan, you know, prosecutors obviously have a lot of evidence, including his own manifesto, those photos he took before that. This is what he was plotting, that he was plotting to attack not only the president but members of his Capitol.

Kristen Welker (25:34)

All right, Ryan Reilly, thank you so very much. Really appreciate it. Coming up next, the historically long shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security is finally over. Well, mostly over, as both ICE and Border Patrol are still without funding. What it all means for the agency and the president's agenda. Stay with us. We'll talk to Julia Ainslie right here on MEET THE press. Now,

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Kristen Welker (27:59)

Welcome back. The longest partial government shutdown in the nation's history is now effectively over. President Trump signing a bill late yesterday to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, ending a shutdown that began 75 days ago. Ice and Border Patrol, however, remain without funding for now as Republicans attempt to use a budget maneuver to buy Democrats to fund those agencies. Homeland Security Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen, who was nominated and confirmed in the midst of the shutdown, says it will take months for his department to recover from the funding lapses.

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way down to ICE and everybody in

Senator Peter Welch (28:40)

between this TSA, we lost almost 8% of the workforce, which is almost double what our attrition rate typically is.

Ryan Reilly (28:48)

Yeah.

Panelist/Guest (28:48)

So how do you replace those people?

Senator Peter Welch (28:50)

Well, it takes about four months to onboard people. Just cisa, who's over cisa, by the way, takes care of our CyberSecurity.

Kristen Welker (28:56)

We're down 1100 people. Joining me now is NBC News senior Homeland Security correspondent Julia Ainslie. Julia, thank you so much for being here. So this shutdown of dhs, it is finally reopened. How long will it take for the Department of Homeland Security to get back to being fully operational?

VRBO User (29:17)

It could take a while and there'll be some visible signs and some signs that are kind of behind the scenes. For one thing, it's a big relief to FEMA workers to get this back up before hurricane season officially gets underway June 1. But they've lost a lot of that planning time that they would have liked to have for people who weren't getting paid. They were able to get out emergency workers, but a lot of the planning, a lot of the administrative things is really key for that. Then there's the things you can see like at the airports, they've lost 1100 TSA workers. It's not easy to rehire those overnight, especially, especially when people are worried, what if this happens again when you're tying something like air travel, which is so important for so many Americans, as something as controversial as funding for immigration enforcement. And that's why actually today there was a statement from Delta Airlines calling on provisions to make this a permanent thing and not tie these together.

Kristen Welker (30:05)

Well, Julia, how long could it take for them to rehire all of those TSA workers? What's the timeline there? Could there be an impact when it comes to staffing?

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Well, to hire a new TSA worker requires some security vetting as well as some training. It isn't as long as say an ICE or CBP officer, but it can take a matter of months. And then there's a recruitment problem. And we're told that they do believe they're at a recruitment deficit because who wants to sign up for this job at this point?

Kristen Welker (30:29)

What are the biggest lapses during the shutdown and could there be a long term impact, do you think?

VRBO User (30:34)

Well, certainly lapses when it comes to getting some legal paperwork approved and getting through the process for dhs. Some of that is fee based and so they were able to keep that going. But other things, again like the planning for disaster response, there's also been statements from local municipalities saying in major cities as well, saying that they didn't get the cooperation they needed from DHS in order to prevent things like terror attacks. The kind of cooperation they've come on, come to depend on from dhs. Really what this points to is what happens when you have a behemoth department, which I enjoy covering all the many facets. But to put it all under one means that sometimes you lose the very practical, very much bipartisan agreement that there's usefulness of these components because you have the more controversial pieces. And that's why we've seen a bill that's passed that's actually carved out CBP and ice and in a way it won't impact them that they're carved out of this, at least for now because of that one big beautiful bill money that they got last summer.

Kristen Welker (31:33)

Well, a big test for the new DHS secretary, Mark Wayne Mullen.

Panelist/Guest (31:37)

That's right.

Kristen Welker (31:38)

Julie Ainsley, I know you're going to be following every twist and turn as DHS gets back online. Thank you so much for being here.

VRBO User (31:45)

Thank you, Kristen.

Kristen Welker (31:45)

Really appreciate it it and an important programming note. We will see Julia on the Meet the Press panel this Sunday, so be sure to tune in to that. We are also following breaking news overseas where the UK has raised its terror threat level to severe. That is the second highest level and it means the government believes a terror attack is likely. The change comes after a series of arson stabbing attacks across the country, including the stabbing of two Jewish men in London on Wednesday. Authorities call that an anti Semitic attack. Intelligence officials say they're tracking threats from both Islamist jihadist and right wing extremist groups. UK Officials are also concerned about a recent uptick in violence in Northern Ireland following a carjacking and car fire outside a police station in Belfast on Saturday night. The last time the threat level was this high in the UK Was four years ago after a British member of Parliament was killed and a bombing at a hospital in Northern Ireland. Coming up after the break, a generational and ideological battle is brewing in Maine as Democrats and Republicans try to make sense of that major shakeup in the Democratic primary and what it means for the battle for control of Congress. We'll discuss it next with the panel. This is MEET THE PRESS now. Welcome back. Governor Janet Mill's sudden decision to drop out of the main Democratic Senate primary is renewing a deb debate inside the party about its midterm strategy, its identity and its leadership. New Mexican Senator Martin Heinrich going as far to call on leader Chuck Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to drop their involvement in other competitive Senate primaries, telling Politico, quote, we've gotten over analytical as a party and sanitized and thinking about resumes. None of these candidates are perfect. But I think there's an expectation by voters today that if you seem perfect, we you're probably hiding something. Joining me now to discuss this, our panel, Reese Gorman, politics reporter at Notice, Neera Tanden, president and CEO of Center for American Progress, and Matt Gorman, former NRCC communications director and an NBC News contributor. Thanks to all of you for being here. Really appreciate it. Reece, let me start with you and that statement there. I mean, is it too late for Chuck Schumer and the DSCC to pivot at this point to try to keep some distance from these key races?

Ryan Reilly (34:12)

Oh, it definitely is because they've already put in a lot of money. You look in North Carolina, they're already for Roy Cooper. You look at Alaska with Mary Peltola, they're already there. And so they already are kind of backing a lot of these candidates. And what you're seeing is that this is frustration. My colleagues over at Notice wrote a really good kind of postmortem of the campaign in Maine where Schumer there's a lot of finger point, a lot of people pointing the finger at Chuck Schumer. Chuck Schumer's people are trying to point the blame right back at Mills, but people aren't buying it right now because they're like Schumer. You are going for these older candidates, these gubernator candidates that the party really seems to want to leave right now.

Kristen Welker (34:48)

Yeah. I mean, there is so much NIRA to unpack here. There's what it means for Chuck Schumer and what it means for the Senate race in Maine. So let's start with Chuck Schumer. What do you think the implications are for his leadership?

Panelist/Guest (35:02)

Well, I think the truth is we should look at the entire map, and he's had some incredible recruiting successes. Fact that he recruited Roy Cooper into the race, that he got Sherrod Brown to go into Ohio, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, who for the record is running, you know, somewhere between eight and 10 points ahead of the Republican Mary Paltola, who is a star recruit. And also this map is expanding. There are great people running now in places like Kansas, great recruits into states like Kansas, which where Democrats didn't expect to be competitive. So I think people should look at that whole. His whole decision making. Of course, Maine is a place where the voters, the Democratic voters were making a decision. And the real challenge for Janet Mills was that, you know, in polls today, now this is not election day, but in polls today, Graham Platner was doing better against Collins than she was. And Democratic voters, there's a lot of focus on ideology, but they are fundamentally focused on winning. That is the most important thing.

Kristen Welker (36:00)

Do you think he's the strongest candidate to beat Susan Collins, who has been there for years?

Panelist/Guest (36:05)

Well, he has. I think he has much stronger support in the Democratic Party. That's why this has happened. Susan Collins has been incredibly wily. There are some risks with green plantar, but he's shown, he's demonstrated, you know, I think there's some serious questions he's going to have to answer to the voters. But he's demonstrated a level of skill in being able to, you know, beat a sitting governor.

Kristen Welker (36:26)

Matt, how do you see this race playing out? And do Republicans run the risk of being overly confident as near as saying, yes, there are some controversies that Graham Platner has faced, and yet he's clearly energized part of the Democratic base.

Matt Gorman (36:40)

I wouldn't say we're overconfident. I mean, Susan Collins is the only Republican to represent Harris. And I guess if you go back Obama states, there's. There's no overconfidence there. I think the way we view it is, you know, Mills had a lower ceiling but a higher floor. She was going to get, you know, this a certain amount. She could win, she could lose, but it'd be tight. Graham Platner could. Could win big or lose big. I mean, it is a very much of a risk there. And look we all have those friends that tend to date a certain type of gal or girl. Chuck Schumer tends to recruit a certain type of person. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. You look at Russ Feingold, Evan Bai, Ted Strickland. He likes these already statewide candidates who have a track record, but sometimes their track record gets them into trouble. And that's what we're reckoning with. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

Ryan Reilly (37:22)

On that front, too, I mean, a lot of Chuck Schumer's endorsement are for his own political future. I mean, a lot of these candidates are saying, we will not support Chuck Schumer. You look at Michigan, you got Mallory McMurray saying she won't do it. We got Al Said saying he won't support him. You have Grant Platner who's also said, so a lot of these endorsements that he's making are. He's not endorsed Haley Stevens, but we all kind of know that this is their kind of playing behind here. They are behind Haley Stevens. But like, a lot of these endorsements he's making are basically for people that will vote for him to remain leader.

Panelist/Guest (37:52)

I mean, just to be clear about that, you have to win a majority of the caucus, right? The difference between a few Senate senators. We'll see what happens. But I actually think he's really motivated by taking the majority more than his own job. And, you know, I mean, he's over his career, has had a great. He has done great recruits, and he has had great recruits this period. But of course, this Maine is definitely a place where Janet Mills did not run the campaign that I think he hoped she would.

Matt Gorman (38:21)

It's a secret ballot, too. So a lot of people, you, when they walk out, they'll be like, I did not vote for Chuck Schumer. And it'll be like unanimous. And people like, wait a minute. No, but. So that it's not like a speaker like the House, where you have to proclaim it for everybody.

Ryan Reilly (38:32)

Right.

Kristen Welker (38:32)

Well, and it's just so fascinating all of the different aspects of the midterms that are embedded in this main primary. Let's talk big picture. Let's talk about the backdrop, Reese. The fact we got new polling out today which shows that 61% of people wish that President Trump had not gotten into the war in Iran. How much of a liability, how concerned are Republicans about this?

Ryan Reilly (38:59)

Quite frankly, there definitely is a lot of concern there. I actually interviewed Richard Hudson for a podcast on Monday, but or yesterday, coming out Monday, and he basically told me that this is A concern that he does have. But he, he explains it as though that he's like, oh, well, we're just looking like where we are, where we were, where we are now and how this is going. And put like when you're explaining to voters, that doesn't really help. They're going to still look at like, okay, well, gas might have been expensive, then it got cheap, then it got expensive again. But like, it's still expensive right now. That's what they're going to go to the polls of that amount lot.

Kristen Welker (39:29)

How big of a gut punch is 439 a gallon? When you woke up to those numbers, I had to do a double take. I mean, when you woke up to those numbers, what, 39 for 24.

Matt Gorman (39:40)

I mean, all the trajectory. No. Is absolutely. They need, they need to be concerned about.

Ryan Nobles (39:45)

Right.

Matt Gorman (39:45)

And I was listening to when you talked about it a little earlier before.

John Kilduff (39:48)

Right.

Matt Gorman (39:48)

As we get into the summer, gas is absolutely something they need to take note of. And again, I think that's why you're seeing all this fight on the margins, both the left and the right, on the House battlefield. You're trying to shrink the number of competitive seats as much as possible. And I think that is kind of where you're seeing this with redistricting, tit for tat, over and over again, too. But who knows, we could be talking more about the Senate come the fall than the House.

Kristen Welker (40:10)

Yeah. I mean, Nira, look, the President continues to insist he's going to end the war. Gas prices are going to come down. How do you see that argument? How are Democrats going to frame this?

Panelist/Guest (40:20)

I mean, I think at a very high level here. The big problem for the President is that people look at higher costs. Gas costs are obviously very salient, but they're seeing a lot of high costs and they're seeing, they basically believe that the President's own decisions are driving those numbers up. The President chose to go into this war of choice. It's his decision alone. And what has happened in the last, in the intervening weeks is the American people are experiencing a fair amount of pain at a time where they, the cost of living is their number one concern. So the President has made the number one concern of Americans worse and more salient to those voters. I think if the war ends tomorrow, they're still going to be angry that they paid more because the President's decision, and it really depends on whether he gets a better deal or a worse deal.

Kristen Welker (41:08)

Rhys, it comes as the President's bumping up against this 60 day, deadline. And what I find to be so fascinating is this divide within the Republican Party. You do have a number of Republicans saying, bring this to Congress. Let us weigh in on this. At the same time, leadership saying there's no need for that. And of course, the administration arguing, look, there's a cease fire. We've basically hit the pause button. But how do you see this playing out on Capitol Hill? Do you see this as a moment where Republicans start to try to intervene?

Ryan Reilly (41:37)

There's a lot of Republicans that are upset, but the problem is there's also a lot of Republicans that still have primaries to go and fight, and they're worried that any vocalization against Trump is going to hurt them in their primary. And they'll talk to me on background or whatever and they'll express a lot of concern. But you saw what happened with Trump with Jeff Heard out in Colorado when he voted against him, he endorsed a primary opponent. Right again. So they're afraid that any vote they take against Trump is going to automatically turn.

Kristen Welker (42:04)

All right, guys, thank you so much. Great Friday conversation. Really appreciate it. Great to see all of you. You, Reese, Neera and Matt next finding Common ground. We speak to a bipartisan pair of senators about their friendship and how they're working together on the issues that they think matter most. That interview just ahead on MEET THE PRESS Now. Stay with us. Welcome back. Turning now to the very latest installment of our Common Ground series, where we shine a light on lawmakers working together across the aisle on issues that matter to Americans. My colleague Julie Serkin sat down with Democratic Senators Peter Welch of Vermont and Republican Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas. They recently joined forces on an effort to expand access to whole milk in schools, which President Trump signed into law earlier this year. Julie spoke to the bipartisan pair about their work on that bill, their friendship, and how they work together in an increasingly divided, complex Congress.

Senator Peter Welch (43:05)

Usually we're working out in the gym about this time of the day.

Monica Alba (43:07)

Together, together, together.

Senator Peter Welch (43:09)

I mean, not that it's on purpose, but the gym is not, is not very big. And we're just kind of in the same habit. There's four or five of us that get in there at about the same time every afternoon. So we have our best discussions then as well. It's my favorite part of the day. Peter, he's Mr. Aerobics.

Secret Service Director (43:28)

Well, if we're talking, we're not working out. That's what's called an executive workout.

Senator Roger Marshall (43:32)

That's where you do your best work.

Secret Service Director (43:33)

He's one of our doctors here. So you Know, he gives us good advice about trying to stay fit, but whole milk is part of it, so.

Senator Peter Welch (43:40)

Whole milk, yeah, so. So, you know, think about this Mohawk movement. If it's, if Mother Nature made it, it must be great for you. So whole milk. Yeah. Comes directly from those mama cows. Vermont, a big, big dairy state. Kansas, the fastest growing dairy herd in the country as well.

Secret Service Director (43:54)

I got involved in this because I heard, was hearing from my farmers and I was hearing from parents as well. And here we are in Vermont, that's a blue state. And then Roger, I'm talking to him about this, and he was hearing from his farmers and parents out there. So what it really tells me is that if we interact on the basis of what we're hearing from the people we represent, oftentimes the challenges they face are identical, whether they were Trump voters or they were Harris voters. So Representative Roger has been somebody that I've been able to work with where we're trying to solve a problem that the folks that he represents and the folks that I represent share. And if we work around trying to have a common solution for a common problem, it really creates a much better atmosphere and much better potential for progress.

Senator Roger Marshall (44:43)

You've both been focused clearly on the rural communities in your states, on farmers. I want to talk about the rural broadband bill that you came together on. This is a huge issue. A third of Americans lack access to some broadband or all broadband. And it's 2026. Did you also come together on that in the show?

Senator Peter Welch (45:00)

We started this in the house together.

President Donald Trump (45:01)

We did.

Senator Peter Welch (45:02)

Working on this.

Secret Service Director (45:03)

We did. And we both really care about rural America. And by the way, I think urban America should deeply care about rural America. You know, the values there of hard work, of community spirit, of helping your neighbor, those are really needed more, not less in America. We created a broadband caucus and we started with the determination that rural America should have the same high speed and high quality broadband as urban America. And we got more and more support for that and had an enormous amount of success. Long way to go, but there is solid broadband across this country way better than it would have been without the efforts that we and others who joined us were successful in doing so.

Senator Peter Welch (45:50)

High speed Internet is as important to this generation as an interstate highway system was to my parents. Generation President Eisenhower led that interstate highway system across the country. This is the highway of today. So it's important to agriculture, it's important to health care, education. So this, this is, like I said, just every bit as important as having highways connecting the country is high speed Internet.

Senator Roger Marshall (46:15)

Can you just peel back the curtain a little bit? Because you, on paper, both are so different, right? You come from different states. Obviously, your political views are different. You've known each other since your time in the House. How is it. What is it really like here? Is there a lot of bipartisanship? How do those conversations go when the cameras are off?

Secret Service Director (46:34)

Well, I think two things. I think, first of all, most of us here, all of us here, by and large, are here because we actually do want to make a difference for the people we represent. Number two, all of us are stuck in this system where instead of focusing on common solutions for common problems, we're in the political back and forth. It's gotten worse. And you go to your partisan corners, and it becomes more important to get a partisan victory. But. But the way I think people like Roger and I try to break through is to get concrete. We need broadband in Vermont. We need it in Kansas. Our farmers want whole milk in both states. When we start talking about the things that are affecting the people we represent, that's a much better discussion than whether we like Trump or we don't or whether we like Biden or we don't. Because we're talking about something that Roger deeply cares about and I care about, and that's the people that I represent who share a problem. And it gets us talking about, all right, what can you and I do together? And what we also know is our prospects of getting something done that helps the people we represent are far better when we partner than if we try to do it alone.

Senator Peter Welch (47:43)

We could do 99 things together this week. And if I disagreed with Peter Welch on one thing, that's all the news is going to be focused on the one thing we disagreed on. But what Peter and I typically do is we agree on the same goal. And at the end of the day, you know, my dream is to leave this country better than I found it. Kids, grandkids, now, I want to make sure they have the same shot of the American dream that I do. And I bet Peter wants that same dream as well.

Senator Roger Marshall (48:09)

Do you think it's challenging to be a public servant at this time, given that the stuff that gets the most attention seems to be the minority of what you're doing?

Secret Service Director (48:21)

It's very tough. And, you know, in all candor, we're swimming against the tide here. The whole purpose of politics is to have discussion among people who disagree, that have the blessing of the people who elected us, sent us here to have policy solutions that make their jobs back home easier. We are not doing that. A lot of the things we're doing are making it harder. But Roger and I are determined to do everything in our power to get back to that problem solving and that sense of mutual respect and mutual responsibility.

President Donald Trump (48:55)

Yeah.

Senator Peter Welch (48:56)

I think, you know, one thing we live in, this world of social media, and let me back up, even just to say I tell my parents this all the time, is they'll be watching cable news and they'll get mad. And that's the goal. Remember, it's not news, it's really entertainment. They're calling it cable news that night, but it's really entertainment. Both sides do the same thing, and their goal is to make you mad and create hatred, and then you feed on that, and then social media sees what you like and the algorithms keep feeding you that echo chamber. It's a tough time to be a senator. I think it's a real tough time to be a person back home and trying to figure out where is the truth of all this that's happening.

Senator Roger Marshall (49:36)

Yeah. And let's just be frank about this. There are a number of issues that probably make having kind bipartisan discussions more difficult. You know, the war in Iran, people are deeply divided. Right. Even in this country, what it's doing to their pocketbooks. The DHS shut down. You have different reasonings for why you might be on one side or another. So when you talk about those difficult topics, is it hard and frustrating sometimes to work together despite of all of that?

Secret Service Director (50:02)

Well, no, it is. I mean, you know, we had. We've got the war in Iran, and I'm against it. But I do think that the President should be coming to Congress and explaining to Congress why it is and he's doing this and what the plan is and what we can expect as an outcome. Those are serious topics, and they shouldn't be reduced to accusations. There should be a full and robust debate, debate among the American people. That's what political dialogue and debate is about. But it's gotten to be, I think, social media. Roger, you really identified something that's accelerated the kind of divisive approach to things where instead of using reason and empathy and generosity of spirit and mutual respect, which is really essential to have trust in a democracy, we get right into the blame of.

Senator Peter Welch (50:59)

I try to never attack the person, I try to attack their policy. And out of respect for Peter, we may not agree on something, but I would never say it's not because he didn't think about it, or it's not because he didn't think it through, because I Know his heart. And that's what I would try to do by reaching across the aisles, getting in these people's heart, that they are good people, that we're good people as well.

Senator Roger Marshall (51:21)

If I could just end this way. We were supposed to have another sitting in your seat, and about an hour ago, you jumped in to do this interview. And I just think that speaks to bipartisanship that we're seeing here. Right?

Senator Peter Welch (51:33)

You know, I did it for a friend. And this is a really important story to me too, by the way. This is, you know, we're begging. I complain that all they want to talk about is the partisanship things, and we were yelling and screaming at each other. But here, two people have had great success. We got our whole milk bill across the finish line. We've got a lot of our high speed Internet bill across the finish line. We're ready to do the next chapter in the next farm bill.

Secret Service Director (51:57)

I appreciate you giving us an opportunity to show that there is some work which we do together, even while we have disagreements about some major policy questions. You know, the joy that I think all of us get in life is when our efforts succeed in helping other people get a step ahead. And all of us, I think, would feel much better if we were more productive. And more productive means that we've got to work together.

Senator Peter Welch (52:24)

Amen.

Kristen Welker (52:26)

What a great conversation. Our huge thanks to Julie Serkin for bringing us that common ground. We will be back Monday with more Meet the Press Now. And if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press. On your local NBC news station, I'll have exclusive interviews with acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and Democratic Senator Adam Schiff. You don't want to miss it. There's much more ahead on NBC News Now.

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