Are Markets Just Plain Wrong to Keep 'Looking Through' The Iran War?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Merryn Talks Money – "Are Markets Just Plain Wrong to Keep 'Looking Through' The Iran War?"
Host: Merryn Somerset Webb, Bloomberg Senior Columnist
Guest: John Stepek, Bloomberg Senior Reporter and author of the Money Distilled newsletter
Release Date: April 17, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the apparent disconnect between turbulent global geopolitics—particularly the ongoing Iran-related war and its vast economic repercussions—and continued buoyancy in global stock markets. Merryn and John discuss why markets seem unruffled by what many would consider existential threats, offering insights on inflation, energy prices, UK economic malaise, the realities of GDP vs. GDP per head, and some timely investment reflections. The tone is sharp, skeptical, and tinged with characteristic British humor.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Resilience vs. Geopolitical Reality

Timestamps: 03:33 – 06:31

• Despite “erratic leaders, bizarrely lefty leaders, [and] massive energy shocks,” global markets—including the S&P 500 and Japanese equities—are hitting new highs.

• Merryn questions if “looking through” such serious risks is rational, particularly when the current energy crisis is among the biggest in recent memory.

  • Quote (Marian Somerset Webb, 05:19):
    “This isn’t just geopolitics, this is a massive, massive, one of the greatest energy shocks that you and I have known in our careers.”

• John distinguishes between distant geopolitical risks and deep, global shocks: geopolitics usually doesn’t dent markets for long—historical examples include JFK’s assassination and even 9/11. But today may be different, given the direct hit to energy and inflation.

2. Slow-Moving Crises and Market Psychology

Timestamps: 06:31 – 08:52

• This current crisis is “slow-burn”—like a tanker moving at 15 mph—making it dangerously easy to underestimate.

  • Quote (Marian Somerset Webb, 05:19):
    “It’s slow burn, so it’s easy to forget quite how serious it is. But it’s not small, it’s big. And I find it extraordinary that everyone can just look through it and markets can be back at their highs.”

• Oil prices have risen but not as dramatically as in some past crises, potentially obscuring the depth of the problem.

• A notable risk: The public might only react once daily life is directly hit, such as cancelled holidays due to jet fuel shortages.

  • Memorable moment (07:12–07:15):
    • Merryn: “Six weeks, John. But I’m supposed to be going to Greece.”
    • John: “Exactly. Would someone think of the tourists?”

• The US remains insulated as the world’s largest market with domestic energy reserves.

• Fear of missing out (FOMO) on market rebounds persists; investors are reluctant to “sell” and risk missing an upturn.

3. Inflation, Earnings, and Unrealistic Optimism

Timestamps: 08:52 – 09:46

• S&P 500 earnings are rising quickly, leading to a perception that “everything looks okay,” but both hosts voice skepticism.

  • Quote (Marian Somerset Webb, 08:52):
    “Add that to S&P 500 earnings rising at a fairly fast pace and suddenly everything kind of looks okay—except for that it kind of doesn’t.”

• John questions: How can earnings rise when underlying costs are spiraling? Inflation may be distorting underlying realities, making real measurements increasingly difficult.

4. New Jargon: FOMOOP and the BIFFs

Timestamps: 09:46 – 10:39

• FOMOOP: Fear Of Missing Out On Peace, a new market psychology term for investors worried about failing to be fully invested when stability returns.
• BIFFs: A playful riff on PIIGS (from past European crises), now referring to Britain, Italy, France as the chief economies with serious debt and fiscal risks.

5. The UK’s Fiscal & Economic Malaise

Timestamps: 10:39 – 16:53

• Discussion of the UK’s high tax burden, poor GDP-per-capita growth, and political misperceptions.

  • Many in the UK believe the country is as wealthy as Switzerland, confusing national economic size with individual prosperity.
    • Quote (Marian Somerset Webb, 11:56):
      “Having the sixth largest economy in the world does not mean that your individual members of the population are the six richest people in the world.”

• Misconceptions are rife among politicians and the public; this confusion feeds political anger and demands for redistribution.

  • Quote (Marian Somerset Webb, 13:29):
    “If you believe that the UK is a very rich country, but you are not getting richer year after year after year, you must think that there is money somewhere that other people have and you should have.”

• The hosts highlight distorted policy responses like calls for price controls and wage ratios, noting income inequality has decreased post-2007 but perceptions (and anger) haven’t shifted.

  • Quote (John, 16:17):
    “Income inequality is definitely going down. It peaked in about 2007 and it has gone down significantly since then. You cannot make the argument that income inequality in this country has gone up and yet lots of people do.”

6. Growth vs. Growth Per Capita

Timestamps: 16:53 – 17:36

• Governments tout economic growth, but individual incomes have remained flat—a deeper cause of social unrest.

7. Investing Angle: Are AI Stocks Overhyped?

Timestamps: 17:36 – 19:36

• John references a recent guest and discusses a possible investment hedge: buying battered UK software-as-a-service stocks as a counterplay if AI proves overhyped.
• Notes that some “quality” fund managers like Nick Train have struggled due to this rotation.
  • Memorable moment (19:03):
    “So maybe if AI does turn out to be incredibly disappointing, then that [portfolio] will benefit from it.”

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Notable Quotes

• Merryn Somerset Webb (05:19):
  “This isn’t just geopolitics, this is a massive, massive, one of the greatest energy shocks that you and I have known in our careers.”

• Merryn Somerset Webb (08:52):
  “Add that to S&P 500 earnings rising at a fairly fast pace and suddenly everything kind of looks okay—except for that it kind of doesn’t.”

• Merryn Somerset Webb (11:56):
  "Having the sixth largest economy in the world does not mean that your individual members of the population are the six richest people in the world."

• John (16:17):
  “Income inequality is definitely going down...you cannot make the argument that income inequality in this country has gone up and yet lots of people do.”

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Highlighted Timestamps

• 03:33: Markets hit new highs despite global chaos.
• 05:19: This is not “distant” geopolitics; energy shock is real.
• 06:31: “Slow burn” crisis metaphor.
• 07:12: Potential for jet fuel shortages to hit real life.
• 08:52: Earnings appear strong; reality is more complex.
• 09:46–10:04: FOMOOP—Fear Of Missing Out On Peace.
• 10:08–10:34: The BIFFs—Britain, Italy, France, fiscal trouble spots.
• 11:56: UK’s sixth largest economy ≠ personal wealth.
• 13:29: Social perceptions fueling demands for redistribution.
• 16:17: Income inequality statistics.
• 17:36–19:03: Investment takeaways—hedging against AI disappointment.

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Memorable Moments

• Merryn and John debate how “slow” crises go ignored—until holidays get cancelled—exemplifying how crises hit public consciousness.
• Humour in jargon: “FOMOOP” and “BIFFs” coined and dissected.
• John’s “share tip” is subtly offered as a hedge, not a sure bet: classic, understated British financial advice.
• Merryn closes playfully on John's supposed fashion expertise.

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Takeaway for Listeners

Despite the celebratory stock market headlines, Merryn and John warn that markets may be dangerously complacent in the face of deep, slow-moving crises—most critically, the current energy shock stemming from Middle East tensions. Investors, policymakers, and the public alike are cautioned against conflating GDP size with individual well-being and are reminded to scrutinize the economic narratives offered by governments and the markets. The episode blends sobering macroeconomic insight with wit and concludes with a nuanced view: beware overconfidence, especially when collective optimism feels easy.

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Transcript

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

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[IBM Narrator]

foreign.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Welcome to the Marion Talks Money Market Wrap where we talk about the biggest moves in the market this week and what is driving them. I am Marian Sumstat Webb, Editor at large for Bloomberg UK wealth and I'm

[John]

Join Stevik, senior reporter and author of the award winning Money Distilled newsletter.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Yeah, slip that in still, don't you? I've got to say it's a while since you've won an award. I mean, I'm just saying, right? How long ago was that award? Najo Go?

[John]

Maybe it's a couple of years now. Yeah, they enter for some more.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

I think we should enter for some more. You know what, entering for awards is really a boring admin. If anyone knows of any wards that we can be entered for without having to do any admin at all and it will probably win deeply to let us know because that's a lot easier.

[John]

Maybe we could get AI to do it. Do you think we could get AI to do it? AI is like meant to be good for boring paperwork, but it also makes mistakes.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Makes mistakes. What if it entered us into, I don't know, sports podcast competition or something like that?

[John]

Well, if we want it, I don't mind. That's fine.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

One of those competitions where only people with the correct ideology win.

[John]

Well, that's never going to help.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

We don't want any of this anyway. I wanted to move straight from that onto things people don't deserve. Brutal, brutal markets. Markets. So here we are. There's a lot going on. The world is changing very dramatically. Geopolitics is absolutely nuts. We've talked over and over and over about how the world has changed such that it is material stuff, not ethereal stuff that matters. All these things we've talked about over and over. We can look around us, we can see the geopolitical conflict. We can see the risks of further geopolitical conflict. Very good podcast coming out on that on Monday, by the way. Do watch out for it. And even while all these things are happening around us, erratic leaders, bizarrely lefty leaders, all these things, markets are at new highs. So the S and P just keeps going up back where it was. The Japanese market is up 20% this year. John, help me out here. What's going on? Can we really look through all this? We can look through an energy crisis. We can look through an actual war and say it's okay. Now that's really mad huge. Let's think instead about earnings forecasts for individual companies.

[John]

I just don't think so. And I don't like saying that, because I hate saying the market is wrong. Exactly. Because I hate saying the market is

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

wrong because it's so arrogant and it's so ridiculous. How can you know when a market is wrong or a market is right? The market as a whole may be picking up things that you and I don't understand. Exactly. We may be ridiculously pessimistic, we may be too cynical, may not understand something. So to say the market is wrong, to say the crowd is wrong. Right. Embarrassing.

[John]

Not so again. And I've learned plenty of times in the past that, yeah, if you think the market's wrong, it's probably not the market, it's probably you. And also, geopolitics famously doesn't affect markets that much for that length of time. Usually every time something like this happens, you get a big list of all the other times crazy things happened, like JFK getting assassinated, barely put a day dent in the market. Even something like September 11th didn't put a big dent in the market relative to the economic stuff that was going on at the time. So we sort of should have learned from that. But at the same time, this is a very clear escalation down the road to the kind of world that I suppose we've been warning of for a good few, quite a lot of years now.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Well, I suppose the key point is that it's not just geopolitics. Right? Often when we talk about geopolitics we're talking about something very far away that doesn't have a particular impact on your day to day life. This isn't just geopolitics, this is a massive, massive, one of the greatest energy shocks that you and I have known in our careers. So it's going to affect not just the price of energy but the price of everything else that's going to affect everybody's cost base. It's going to feed through into inflation. It makes all those who see the bank of England governor in the UK this week has been talking about how we shouldn't jump the gum on rate rises and he doesn't know yet. And don't assume there's going to be rate rise after rate rise, who can possibly tell if not jabdigan, etc. But nonetheless we know that in an inflationary environment and we are now in an inflationary environment that's going to feed through into rate rises. So this is not distant geopolitics. It's slow burn, right? And as I was talking to someone earlier, in fact on my podcast, it was on Monday who was pointing out that this is a crisis that moves at the speed of a tanker, 15 miles an hour, something like that. So it's slow burn. So it's easy to forget quite how serious it is. But it's not small, it's big. And I find it extraordinary that everyone can just look through it and markets can be back at their highs.

[John]

I suppose part of the problem is that the oil price itself, although it's gone up an awful lot, it's not going up as much as it did say in 2011 or even in 2022. I think that's maybe one thing or rather the most visible oil price hasn't. I'm vaguely aware that lots of other things kind of have. But I'm also wondering if this is one of those situations where it's a little bit. We keep getting. We've talked about this before but the idea that the wake up call that we all get this time round is not going to be a price shock, it's going to be an actual shock. I'm hearing people talking about Europe running jet fuel in six weeks.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Six weeks, John. But I'm supposed to be going to Greece.

[John]

Exactly. Would someone think of the tourists?

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

No.

[John]

I mean, but this is whenever things like people get their holidays cancelled because just isn't a flight anymore that, you know, maybe we start to see a panic. And also I guess the other issue is America is still the by far the biggest stock market in the world. And it is, to a great extent the place that is most insulated from this because it actually has its own. So I do wonder how much that's got to do with it. And also the constant talk of de escalation. I mean, nobody. We're still in a place, I think, where nobody wants to get caught in the wrong side of a massive bounce in the market. And that's why we actually haven't had a big fall at all, because everyone actually has been buying the dip basically all the way through this. And that's one also. I mean, arguably, I think it's very hard to say that Trump's necessarily thinking particularly strategically, but I do think that his kind of strategy would be the wrong thing. He's just instinctively got that ability to turn around, poke people in their vulnerable spot, and he keeps doing that whenever it looks as if anyone's going to give in to despair, as it were.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Yeah, exactly it. So everyone is frightened that they're going to end up missing out on the piece and now has a phrase for it, fomo. OP. Fomoop.

[John]

FOMOOP stands for fear of missing out on peace. On peace. Oh, of course. Okay, okay, okay.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

By not being fully invested when it turns. And add that to S&P 500. Earnings rising at a fairly fast pace and suddenly everything kind of looks okay. Except for that it kind of doesn't.

[John]

How can they be rising? This is the thing that I do struggle with, the idea that earnings are going to rise even though all these costs have risen. It's like, I mean, okay, I guess the other thing is just general inflation. I think general inflation has sort of. Because we live in this much more inflationary environment. I think prices are probably less reliable in a lot of ways than they, you know, than they have been. That's a very vague feeling. But I think it's one reason you haven't had a recession, for example. It's just because there's a load of money constantly going in with her. And it's always hard to actually measure things in real terms.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Foreign. I'm going to introduce yet another new word we've had today. We've had famuk. It's just for those who have forgotten already, fear of missing out on peace. And then there is another one in circulation, the BIFFs.

[John]

Ah, yeah. This one this morning. It's on the front page of the ft.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Remember the pigs, Right. Remember the pigs. Portugal, Italy, et cetera, et cetera. Now we have the BIFFs who are the three European economies? Well, Europe plus us, who have the nastiest debt problem. So the biggest rises in borrowing cross the most cost. Most likely to find themselves in some fiscal crisis. And they are Italy, France and Britain. The Biffs, other way around.

[John]

Britain, France,

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

beef. I don't know. Anyway, we mustn't. We mustn't do French. Remember, they've talked about us doing French before. The listeners don't like it. No French. Anyway, so we have this. And this makes you look at the UK and we do have to think about the uk, right? So we've got this incredibly high tax burden already. We've got this awful fiscal problem, incredibly high level of debt to gdp and a government that keeps promising more spending on anything except for defense, obviously, which seems to be the one thing they're not prepared to spend anything on. And at the same time, we have this really odd dynamic, this report out recently, when everyone knows that UK GDP per head is. Well, not everyone, actually, but we know that UK GDP per head is bizarrely low. And there was this. And the last few years everyone was looking at UK GDP per head relative to GDP per head in Mississippi, which is the poorest state in the us. Are we going to slip below them or not? But this recent study looked at how rich most people in the UK think the UK is. So it turns out that in fact, the majority of people in the UK believe that the UK is rich. Rich like Switzerland or something like that. Now, crucially, it is absolutely true that the UK has one of the biggest economies in the world. Right. I think we're number six.

[John]

Number six, yeah.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Having the sixth largest economy in the world does not mean that your individual members of the population of the six richest people in the world. Because, of course, when you break it down to GDP per head in the uk, things have been absolutely horrible for decades. Real inflation adjusted GDP per heads literally barely moved for 20 years since the financial crisis. So, in fact, individually, we're relieved. We're very poor.

[John]

I mean. Well, it's interesting because someone pulled the Green Party leader Zach Polanski up for this on Twitter the other day. I noticed, because he described the UK as being the sixth wealthiest country in the world and the two things are the same at all. And I do think, I mean, or rather that suggested to me that, I mean, obviously people use these terms sometimes with a kind of mendacious intent. They want it to sound as if we're richer than we are. But I also think a lot of politicians are genuinely confused. It's like back in the day whenever David Cameron used to get confused with deficit and debt. And one thing that most politicians didn't seem to have a handle on is what was the difference between your annual deficit and the overall national debt. And they would use the terms interchangeably. That's stopped because of, I guess, I would say a kind of media education campaign, actually. Maybe, maybe this will be the same with GDP per head. But yeah, no, it's pretty disastrous. But I thought you were making a really good point about how that kindness kind of misperception explains why people are so angry.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Angry, yeah. And I think it might. I mean, one of the problems we've had in the UK is the people simply not getting richer. So GDP per head in real terms simply not going up. So your life one year to the next, one year to the next, one year to the next is not improving. It's not improving. And that's going to make you pretty irritated to begin with. And if you believe that the UK is a very rich country, but you are not getting richer year after year after year, you must think that there is money somewhere that other people have and you should have. And I think that's where we get this demand for wealth taxes and endless redistribution and all this sort of thing. It comes from this idea that everyone feels that they are poor, but looking at the numbers, maybe everyone else isn't.

[John]

I think there's probably a lot of truth to that. I mean, I do. I mean, I think there's a lot goes into the general kind of sense of anger and there's probably all kinds of things tied up with anxiety and chaos in the sense of a lack of control over one's own environment. But definitely the idea that other people must be doing better than you because how else do people afford all these rising prices? And yeah, the problem is it's also. It's going to make things worse because we just saw some of the S and P did their manifesto this morning and one of the things that they've explicitly said they'll impose is price controls on the price of essential goods. And you can't have a maximum price for bread and milk. Surely in the UK this is not South America circa the 1970s. This is even more obviously disastrous than rent controls. And we've talked about them enough times and yeah, this is the sort of thing that people are talking about and the Greens talking about how there should be no bigger gap between the highest paid person in an organization, the lowest paid, than a kind of ratio of 10 to 1. So we really are, are looking at some really pretty radical suggestions on the political stage.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Well, going back to that idea of the top wage should not be more than 10 times the lower wage, et cetera. I mean they're talking about pre tax and pre welfare and one of the things that you and I were looking at last week, was it last week or the week before, was the extent of the compression of net incomes in the uk.

[John]

Yes.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Such that after tax and after, after the endless benefits paid to working people, that gap is already down to not much more than three times. I mean it's really fascinating.

[John]

Wasn't it the statistic that somebody had found that Britain in terms of income equality had actually achieved greater kind of like compression than the Soviet Union?

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Yes. Yeah.

[John]

So I mean, well, this is the other nutty thing, like a lot of people still believe that. I mean wealth inequality is a slightly different issue. It's more complicated, it's harder to measure. But income inequality is definitely going down. It peaked in about 2007 and it has gone down significantly since then. You cannot make the argument that income inequality in this country has gone up and yet lots of people do. So I mean, yeah, I think there's a lot to what you're saying about people just thinking who the hell has got all the money? Because I know I don't.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Yeah, but I suppose that, I mean the key thing, whether you, however people feel about it or don't feel about it, the key thing is that it is proper economic growth, the pie getting bigger round that makes people happy. And that's why governments are always so desperate to talk about growth. And we're going to get growth and we're going to get growth. But as you say, what we really need them to do is stop talking about growth and start talking about growth per head individual income strength rising. And they don't because of course we judge them on growth, don't we? Globally, everyone checks out these GDP numbers. They don't talk about individual wealth. Anyway, we're getting bogged down, John. We're getting bogged down. But it is interesting and it is worrying. We better say something else about markets.

[John]

Do you know what? It's something I wrote about this week. The listeners might find interesting if they didn't read it because it actually contained something approximating a kind of share tip in it was, you know how the other day you had a very good podcast with Yanish Meraki, who was great, I thought he was a great guest. Really interesting. He was basically talking about how AI is quite possibly massively overhyped. And I was having a look at all the software as a service companies that sold off in the UK and they're still sort of. They took a dive in January and they're still sort of floating around the same level that they bottomed out in February. And I was just thinking, if you're looking for a hedge and an easy hedge against massive AI disappointment, then maybe buying a small basket of those stocks would be quite a good diversifier for your portfolio. And conveniently, they're all held by Nick Train's investment trust. So I thought, as is quite an easy one, which has not been doing very well recently. No, it's been doing atrociously, really badly and for good reason because the quality style has been out of favor. It's the same way. What's his name, Terry Smith. This sort of stuff has done poorly. But looking at it again, you're kind of like well over 50% of the portfolio is in these stocks that have been battled by the idea that AI is going to destroy their business models. So maybe if AI does turn out to be incredibly disappointing, then that will benefit from it.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

That'll be the place to go. Maybe one of those portfolios. Nick Trends has quite a lot of. In luxury goods.

[John]

I don't think that one is. There's Unilever and Diageo are in it, but he also had Schroders, which obviously did all right because it had bid for it. So I don't, you know, it's Burberry. It's got Burberry. But again, that's.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

That's what I was thinking of. Is that a luxury gad?

[John]

I don't know much about fashion, obviously, but I've always been a little bit skeptical of the idea of Burberry as a kind of, you know, I mean, it's always had that problem, hasn't it? But I mean.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Anyway, John, I think anyone who's ever seen you on stage at any of our live events would say that you know a lot about fashion.

[John]

That's. That's extremely kind. I'm just going to let that one sit there without responding to it.

[Marian Sumstat Webb]

Okay. And I'm going to end our conversation there and just leave that one. Thanks for listening to this week's Marian Talks Money Debrief. If you like our show. Rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Also, be sure to follow me and John on x or Twitter ErinSW and John underscore. This episode was produced by Sam Asadi. Production support and sound design by most and questions and comments on this show and all our shows are always welcome. Our show email is MerrillMoneyLumberg.net

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