Are Public Markets Back?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Merryn Talks Money – Are Public Markets Back?

Host: Merryn Somerset Webb (Bloomberg Editor at Large, UK Wealth)

Guest: John Stepek (Senior Reporter, Bloomberg; Author, Money Distilled Newsletter)

Date: June 12, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles three core themes shaping current investment strategies and market dynamics:

1. The role and optimal allocation of gold in a portfolio
2. Shifting supply and demand trends in public equity markets
3. The potential for inheritance tax-free government bonds as a policy innovation

With their signature mix of candor, expertise, and banter, Merryn and John guide listeners through recent market moves, shifting investor psychology, and policy proposals—all with practical implications for asset allocation and portfolio resilience.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Gold: How Much Should You Hold?

[02:00–06:15]

• Gold as Insurance
  Merryn recounts a conversation with Sebastian Lyon (Personal Assets Trust) about how much gold to hold in a portfolio. Lyon maintains a base level (~10%), increasing to 13–14% during turbulent times or cutting to 8% when things seem stable.

  “The key thing is you need to have enough gold in your portfolio to make a difference when something goes wrong. So don’t bother with 1% or 2%…But not so much that when things are going right, your performance is really dragged down.”
  — Merryn Somerset Webb, [03:09]

  • Merryn and John both react to the difficulty of “valuing” gold and share their own comfort numbers (John winces at 20%, prefers 10%).

  • Recent Gold Price Moves:

    • Gold surged above $5,000/oz but has since corrected below $4,300/oz.
    • Both see this pullback as a “healthy correction,” noting continued buying by Asian investors and central banks—even if not at prior scale.

    “I think this is a healthy correction…nothing fundamental has changed.”
    — John Stepek, [04:36]

    • The debt picture, especially in the US, remains concerning—supporting gold’s role as a hedge.

  • Actionable Takeaway:

    • Find your “number” for gold holding and stick with it; reevaluate only if it makes you uneasy.

    “If you’re feeling queasy, then sell something. You don’t feel queasy.”
    — John Stepek, [06:10]

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2. Public Markets: Are They Back?

[06:17–12:16]

• Context: Decades of “De-Equitization”

  • Merryn and John discuss how public markets have shrunk in recent decades due to buyouts, share buybacks, and a shift to private equity.

  • Fewer publicly listed companies & shares have led to higher prices, fueled by steady/increasing demand (e.g., auto-enrolled pensions/401ks).

    “You take out supply, demand stays the same or goes up and up…what do you expect? You expect a bull market.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb, [07:07]

  • John uses a supermarket analogy:

    “If suddenly there were half the number of apples at your supermarket, the prices would be more expensive. Not because the apples are any better, there’s just fewer of them.”
    — John Stepek, [07:33]

• Signs of Change: IPO Boom and Fundraising Shifts

  • Recent/anticipated mega-IPOs include SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—evidence of new supply entering public markets.

  • Major cash-rich companies (e.g., Google) are now raising fresh capital rather than conducting buybacks.

  • This reversal puts investors in a position of funding, rather than extracting from, the market—a shift back to public equities’ original function.

    “Suddenly we’re in a new environment…now we’re being asked to put money into the market. The dynamic has changed.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb, [08:33]

  • They speculate that increased IPOs and potential private equity divestitures could further expand opportunity for public investors—improving transparency, liquidity, wealth equality, and shared growth.

    “These all seem like good things to me.... Capital markets being used in the way that they were designed to be used.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb, [09:35]

• Why the Shift?

  • Private capital is harder and more expensive to obtain due to higher interest rates.

  • Growing compliance pressure on private companies is starting to equalize with public markets, rendering going public less onerous.

  • For firms facing new risks (e.g., competition from AI), equity capital—a form of “permanent capital”—is more appealing than debt.

    “If your risk profile as a company changes, then it makes more sense to go to the equity markets again.”
    — John Stepek, [11:56]

    “You heard it here first. Public markets are back.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb, [12:13]

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3. Bonds & Inheritance Tax: A Policy Innovation?

[14:19–18:13]

• Inheritance Tax-Free Government Bonds

  • The pair discuss an increasingly floated policy: government bonds with proceeds entirely exempt from inheritance tax, possibly ringfenced for defense spending.

    “For a government that really needs to raise a lot of money, how about doing it with a new type of bond, the proceeds of which are inherit tax free.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb, [14:49]

  • John notes likely popularity (given strong aversion to inheritance tax) and the potential to reduce the UK’s borrowing costs.

    “I think the benefits…are that it’d be politically popular, brings down the UK’s cost of borrowing. We do actually need the money for defense.”
    — John Stepek, [15:15]

  • They reference earlier AIM-listed stocks, which used to offer IHT-exemption. Investors piled in even when taking on high risk.

    “People in the UK are so desperate to avoid inheritance tax that they would buy a portfolio of smaller companies on which they could conceivably have lost 100% of their money in order to be able to have a go at not paying inheritance tax.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb, [16:54]

  • They reason investors would certainly accept lower yields on safe bonds if the payoff to heirs is tax-free.

    “I mean, this is the sort of thing where you could see, you know, experiment with a zero coupon [bond]…I think the government would be daft not to go for it because I’m struggling to see the downside.”
    — John Stepek, [17:25]

• Political and Practical Reflections

  • Merryn jokes about government daftness, John suggests branding as “patriotic bonds” to appeal broadly.

    “Even if people start saying, oh, it’s a tax bond for the rich…it feels like kind of a no brainer, I must admit.”
    — John Stepek, [17:53]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On gold as portfolio insurance:

  “10 is enough. It’s real insurance.”
  — Merryn Somerset Webb, [03:54]

• The supply/demand dynamic in equities:

  “Nobody thinks about it because it’s so abstract, but actually…if suddenly there were half the number of apples at your supermarket, the prices would be more expensive.”
  — John Stepek, [07:33]

• On bonds for inheritance tax planners:

  “People in the UK are so desperate to avoid inheritance tax that they would buy a portfolio of smaller companies on which they could conceivably have lost 100% of their money.”
  — Merryn Somerset Webb, [16:54]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:00–06:15] — Gold allocation, portfolio insurance, recent price action
• [06:17–12:16] — Supply/demand in equity markets, IPO resurgence, public vs. private markets
• [14:19–18:13] — Inheritance tax-free bonds, UK policy context, investor psychology

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Closing Notes

Merryn and John end with playful skepticism about government action, consensus on the value of policy innovation, and a promise to tackle new topics next week.

If you’re seeking insights on managing uncertainty, interpreting shifting market structures, and navigating future policy shifts, this episode is a rewarding listen.

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Transcript

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[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Welcome to the Marin Talks Money Market Wrap where we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week and what is driving them. I am Merrin Sumset Webb, Editor at Large for Bloomberg UK wealth.

[John Stevik]

And I'm John Stevik, senior reporter of Bloomberg and author of the Money Distilled Newslet.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Right John in an effort to ramble less and to be more specific and more precise about what we discuss, we have decided that we are going to tell you at the beginning, you listeners what it is we are going to talk about. So today we are going to talk about gold. We're going to talk about supply and demand in the equity market and we are going to talk about bonds and inheritance tax.

[John Stevik]

Excellent value for money.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

This podcaster whole topics, right? Gold.

[John Stevik]

So gold.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

I was talking to Sebastian Lyon of Personal Assets Trust last night, right? And as you know, Personal assets, it's a trust that we're both very fond of, but it always has a pretty big gold holding. And I was talking to him about that how much, why, why this amount and how does this work? And he has this sort of base level of gold inside the trust. About Temet Yeah and when things are worrying and difficult and inflationary and scary, he'll go up to maybe 13, 14%. And when everything is kind of okay, it'll come down to 8%. And I was trying to get from him why it is that 10% is his number. Because, you know, gold, it's impossible to value, right. It's impossible to know how much you should have in a portfolio. And he said, well, the key thing is you need to have enough gold in your portfolio to make a difference when something goes wrong. So don't bother with 1% or 2%. This is meaningless nonsense. But not so much that when things are going right, your performance is really dragged down. And there's a kind of. It's a subjective judgment. And he's landed on about 10. And there were a couple other people in our group, and someone else was like, oh, well, you know, My number is 20, and I think my number is maybe 7.

[John Stevik]

Yep.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

I don't know. I don't know.

[John Stevik]

There's a logic to that.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Yeah.

[John Stevik]

I mean, it does make sense. And even in a gut feeling like five feels like, well, look, if the world does end and 5's not gonna save you from much, but 10 is.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

10 is enough.

[John Stevik]

10 is enough.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

It's real insurance.

[John Stevik]

Whereas to me, when you said 20 there, I kind of winced internally slightly because I thought, no, 20 is too much, because in normal terms, everything else is going up and gold is kind of just sitting there. So, I mean, 10 to me feels kind of certainly in the ballpark of being correct anyway.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

On the plus side, if you had had 20 in your portfolio when gold went over 5,000, you got a lot less now because we're back down below 4300, right?

[John Stevik]

Yep, exactly. Thank goodness for that.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Phew. So what's going on? What's going on there? We're always telling people to have some gold in their portfolios. Insurance. We were thrilled when it went over $5,000. Are we looking at it now and going, this is a healthy correction. All this money you've lost, everybody, That's a good thing. Yeah.

[John Stevik]

I mean, look, to be honest. Yes. I think that this is also. I think this.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

You heard it here first.

[John Stevik]

That's a good thing. That's a good thing. And to be fair, I remember as we both were getting quite twitchy, we were getting at the start of the year, and I think we sort of mentioned maybe take some profits. But I do, because I have been looking at it, I have been thinking, oh, well, look, is this it? Have we tipped over Is this kind of, you know, 2011, 2012 again. But I just can't see it. I mean, one of our colleagues, Simon White, who does the Microscope column, wrote a good piece pointing out the Asians money is still buying. And that's.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

And central banks are still buying on quite the same scale as they were, but they are still buying.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. And so I think a couple of things happened. There was momentum, obviously everyone got very excited about gold. Gold was briefly like the new bitcoin sort of thing. But also we kind of had a period of inflation's going up and people stopped thinking interest rates were going to go down, started thinking they were going to go back up. And they haven't got quite as far as remembering that, well, what if interest rates don't go up fast enough to stop inflation from taking off? And again, that's when you want some gold in your portfolio. So I don't really. And certainly obviously the debt picture hasn't got better, particularly not in the US So I don't see any fundamental things changing, unlike arguably they did in 2011, 2012. So yeah, basically still things.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Understand. Yeah. So find your number.

[John Stevik]

Yeah.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

And stick with it.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. And you know, if you're feeling queasy, then sell something. You don't feel queasy.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Yeah. Never feel queasy about your investments.

[John Stevik]

Yeah.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Okay, on that subject, onto number two, topic number two. See, I'm signaling now. Topic number two, supply and demand, the equity market. Now, one of the things that we've talked about so much over the last decade, two decades, for those of you who don't know, John and I have been working together a long time. Last couple of decades, things have really been bothering us a long time.

[Commercial Voiceover Artist]

It's been been de.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Equitization, there's been the general shrinking of the equity market, of the absolute numbers of shares available to you to buy and of the absolute numbers of companies that are listed, it's been a problem. And so the market has turned into over the last couple of decades, something from which investors extract money from companies being bought out by private equity. You take your cash and you run from dividend payments, from buybacks, huge rise in buybacks across all markets and particularly in the U.S. right. And you can argue, and lots of people do, and it's hard to quantify, but that that shrinkage of supply has been one of the drivers behind the bull market for the last however many years. Right. You take out supply, demand stays the same or goes up and up and up with auto enrollment and 401ks what do you expect? You expect a bull market?

[John Stevik]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it's entirely logical. It's just that nobody thinks about it because it's so abstract.

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Yeah.

[John Stevik]

But actually it's like if suddenly there were like half the number of apples at your supermarket, the prices would be more expensive. Yeah. And it's not because the apples are any better, there's just fewer of them.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Okay. And so look at what's happening now. We talked about this last week a bit, but we've got these huge IPOs. SpaceX. I'll find out very soon how many shares I have been allocated in SpaceX. SpaceX, open air, OpenAI anthropic. And you know, these are huge burns for hundreds of billions with these guys. But even if these ones weren't listing, there would be other companies we would be talking about with huge excitement because they're listing. There are a huge number of IPOs coming through. And at the same time we're seeing a lot of the companies that would once have been doing buybacks. I'm thinking of the hyperscalers, et cetera, who were very, very cash heavy and are now not cash heavy and are coming to market to look for money. Google raises money the other day, for

[John Stevik]

example, and not in like lots of money, like 85 billion real money. That's the same as SpaceX is trying to raise.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Suddenly we're in a new environment where instead of the investor, you know, listeners, you and me, John, taking money out of the market. Thanks very much for the cash, guys. Now we're being asked to put money into the market. The dynamic has changed. And at the same time we're looking at private equity equity, aren't we? And going, oh, do you know what? We're not really sure about that performance record of yours. And it really is time that you lot started capitulating and selling that stuff off at the right price. And when you do, I wonder where they're going to sell it and is it going to come back into the public markets? So are we now moving into a new era, you know, a back to the future era of the public markets being much more important, again, being the place where people actually come to raise large amounts of money? And are we beginning to see increasing supply both of absolute number of shares and absolute number of companies that we can all buy, not just at this very top end, but across the board? Yeah, which is great, I think, for transparency, for liquidity, for wealth equality, for sharing in the growth. I mean, these all seem like good things to me. It may mean Possibly that annual performance across the board isn't quite so good because the supply dynamic changes back in the other direction. But that aside, this seems to me like a really good thing. Capital markets being used in the way that they were designed to be used.

[John Stevik]

It is a good thing. I mean, like I say, it's the purpose of capital markets. And it is also interesting because it's not just about the kind of, you know, the rush or the mega caps. I think you can argue the shift from public to private markets was for a number of things, but one was that private markets were much less hassle than public markets, especially after the dot com bubble and all the extra compliance that you had to do. And I think that obviously the big thing that's changed as well over the last five years certainly is that interest rates have shot up. So private capital is much harder to come by, it's much more expensive. So the disparity is starting to close. Now, obviously the fact that equity prices have shot up also means the cost of equity capital is lower. So it's suddenly getting more attractive to do that than to borrow the money. But even if that comes down again, equity markets come down again, you still get the issue that private markets are a kind of rather constipated at the moment, interest rates aren't going anywhere soon. And also there's a general move to make private markets more transparent and sort of like, I guess a sort of address this kind of disparity between the compliance burden on private companies versus public companies. And the more you do that, I mean, even if it means dumping more on them rather than taking stuff off, may as well be public profile at these companies as well. It's like if you've suddenly gone from being like a hyperscaler with like not a hyperscaler, a company with a massive moat that you just squat in like Google and you just rake in the cash and it's all great. And then AI comes along. Suddenly you're like, oh man, if I want to sustain this moat and you spend a lot of money suddenly coming up against a lot more competition, the truth is that your risk profile has changed and on your risk profile changes. It makes far more sense for the company to raise capital in equity markets than it does in debt markets. Because in equity markets, all of the mugs that buy you are kind of like they're taking the same risk as you. They get the upside, but they also get the downside and it's permanent capital. Yeah. Whereas if you borrow the money off someone, they want it back and they want it now and you don't, you know, have a choice. So if your risk profile as a company changes, then it makes more sense to go to the equity markets again. So yeah, no, I think that.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

There you go. You heard it here first. Public markets are back.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, and that is a good thing.

[Munk's Investment Trust Representative]

We don't just invest in cutting edge companies. We look at companies with a history of steady growth and companies whose growth cycle has come round again. Because in the real world, you have to look at growth in three dimensions. Munk's Investment Trust.

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[Merrin Sumset Webb]

We're almost on the same subject here with inheritance tax and bonds. Because one of the things that. One of things that John and I have talked about, and I think everyone has heard us talk about it endlessly, is how do you avoid inherited attacks? How can you get away from having to pay a large pot of your assets? Well, not your assets because you'll be dead by then. But once you're dead, how. How can it be that you can leave more to your heirs than you might have otherwise? And we're thinking about this idea that has been put about quite a. Quite a lot over the last couple of months.

[John Stevik]

Right.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Being discussed more and more and more and more and more. For a government that really needs to raise a lot of money, how about doing it with a new type of bond, the proceeds of which are inherit tax free. Not just the proceeds, the whole lots. You stick your money into these bonds and when you die, it goes to your heirs tax free. And you could use that. We don't normally hypothecate in the uk, but you could use that to raise the money that we so desperately need for defense. Right. This makes sense.

[John Stevik]

It does. I mean, I think there's.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

I mean, cutting wealth then might be better, but here we are.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, well, exactly. I mean, I guess we've got to work with what we've got, but I think the benefits of this are that it'd be politically popular. Brings down the UK's cost of borrowing. We do actually need the money for defence. So in this case, hypothecating it. Although a detest hypothecation, because obviously it's daft to say, oh, we're going to need that set pot. The point is, with defence is basically, it is a bottomless pit at the moment because we're only at existential crisis. Yeah, exactly. So it's acceptable. So I don't really see the difficulty. And again, okay, so perhaps it means the inheritance tax take goes down a bit, but the inheritance tax take is not that large. It's about 15 billion a year. Say you trim it in half, but then you actually cut your cost of borrowing. It probably evens out.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

And the question, of course is how much does it cut the cost of borrowing?

[John Stevik]

Well, yeah, that's the question.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

This is something that John and I were talking about before we started recording and we were trying to think about it and we're thinking about it in terms of AIM listed stocks. Smaller stock markets in the UK where small companies listed. And for a long time you could buy shares on the end market and they would be IHT free. That's not the case anymore. The law has changed and now the rules have changed. And now it's 20%, right?

[John Stevik]

20%, yeah. It's less of a.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

So it's less of a thing. But in its previous incarnation, Peel spent a lot of time trying to figure out how much of the premium of listed AIM stocks, or AIM listed stocks, should I say, was purely down to iht. And I'm afraid we can't quite remember the numbers, but we're going to go away and look it up.

[John Stevik]

But we did. It's tricky because specific ones were more popular as well because you wanted to see.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

So it's hard to tell. But the key point is that people in the UK are so desperate to avoid inheritance tax that they would buy a portfolio of smaller companies on which they could conceivably have lost 100% of their money in order to be able to have a go at not paying inheritance tax. So if they would do that, why would they not accept, you know, a couple of percentage points lower yield on a bond knowing they're going to get, get all of that money back?

[John Stevik]

Yeah. Guaranteed safe.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

I mean, I mean, in normal terms anyway.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, absolutely. But I mean, this is the sort of thing where you could see, you know, experiment with a zero coupon boy.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Yeah.

[John Stevik]

And just see what happens because it's still saving an awful lot of money. So I, I think the government would be daft not to go for it because I don't. I'm struggling to see the downside, I must admit.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

I love it that you think the government, you know, you saying you'd be daft not to do that. And we're going, well, we're always daft. We're always daft. What do you think we're gonna do now? Be less daft?

[John Stevik]

Yeah, well, true, but you can't think, look, but it's very rare because something that has almost no downside. I mean, I don't, I mean, because even if people start saying, oh, it's a tax bond for the rich, it's like, well, but wait a minute, the rich are being, you know, we could call them patriotic bonds or something like that. I mean, it's not, it feels like a kind of a no brainer, I must admit.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Patriotic bonds, just not war bonds, eh? Thanks, John.

[John Stevik]

Thanks, Merlin.

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

See you next week with another three topics.

[John Stevik]

Yes,

[Merrin Sumset Webb]

Thanks for listening to this week's Marian Talks Money Debrief. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Also, be sure to follow me and John on X or Twitter erinashw and johnstepec. This episode was produced by Sama Saadi. Production support and sound design by Moses Andam. Questions and comments on this show and all our shows are on. Always welcome. Our show email is merriamoneyloomburg.net.

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