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Marin Somerset Webb
Welcome to a bonus episode of Marin Talks Money. The podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I am Meryn Sumset Webb. I am just back from a long trip home from Japan. With me today, of course is author of the award winning Money Distilled newsletter, John Cena. Step back. Hi John.
John Stepek
Hi man.
Marin Somerset Webb
John, I've been away for literally a couple of Days. And everything seems to have gone completely nuts while I've been away. A bitcoin, this is why you should kill it.
John Stepek
Never, never leave the country. It's usually when it just goes to port without you.
Marin Somerset Webb
It's usually when you go away that the market crashes one way or another. We've had this joke before. You go on holiday to Portugal, come back, everything's fallen 20%. But this time, bitcoin really, really has come off a lot. So it's down quite a lot in the last couple of days. It's down 25% year to date, 40% over six months and close to 50% off the high it hit last year, $125,000. We went down to $60,000 at some point. And I think as we speak, it's bounced quite a lot back up to the mid-60s. But this is not what people expected. And I think one thing we can say for absolutely sure at this point, that bitcoin is not quite the same thing as gold. Am I right or am I absolutely right?
John Stepek
Oh, I think that's fair. That's definitely fair.
Marin Somerset Webb
Yeah.
John Stepek
Well, actually, what's interesting is bitcoin doesn't seem to have participated in the kind of slightly manic run up that Silver and Gold had, but it does seem to be participating in the very manic rundown that they've been having.
Marin Somerset Webb
Yeah.
John Stepek
So I'm curious as to why that is.
Marin Somerset Webb
So am I. And it seems really that it's not so much that it is moving around the place with gold, but it's moving around the place with software. Because it kind of is software.
John Stepek
Yeah.
Marin Somerset Webb
Anyway, as you and I know nothing about these things and are constantly, permanently wrong on bitcoin, we've actually invited someone on who does know something about bitcoin and how it all works. We've got on Charlie Morris. He's on the line to try and help us make sense of all this. He is the founder and chairman of Investment Research from Bittree and he has been on with us a couple of times before, so regular listeners will know him well. Charlie, welcome to Marit Talks Money.
Charlie Morris
Thanks for the invitation.
Marin Somerset Webb
Right, Charlie, what's going on?
Charlie Morris
You want to talk about bitcoin? I mean.
Marin Somerset Webb
Yes, I do.
Charlie Morris
The best performing asset in the history of the world. Let's start that.
Marin Somerset Webb
Yes.
Charlie Morris
You know, it comes to market at a very low market cap. That's been, I think it was around $150,000 market cap in 2010 when it started trading at about 6 cents. We came a long way since Then, and we have these thing called cycles. Bitcoin goes up a lot, then it goes down a lot. And we've just in the last 24 hours or in fact the last few days experienced one of the down a loss.
Marin Somerset Webb
Okay, so why does it go down a lot? I mean, we're talking a lot. And there'll be a lot of people out there who caught this wave up, having missed previous waves up, they'll have ridden it up to 120, 125. Some people will have bought it up there. I mean, bitcoin's not alone here. People have done this with gold and silver as well. So given that it's not moving with gold and silver, it's not the same asset. And this is one of the things we've talked about with you a lot, that it is a very different type of asset. Which, what is it that is driving this collapse?
Charlie Morris
So there are lots of things, I mean, I've always said that, you know, gold's a sort of a macro asset and it's a real world asset and bitcoin's a digital world asset. It always had high correlation with tech. I used to highlight that with social media stocks because if you think about it, you know, sharing pictures of cats and funny jokes on the Internet and social media, is that dissimilar to exchanging value? I mean, after all, it's Internet activity. And Bitcoin's always loved the idea of more activity. And the more people in the network are engaging in the space, the higher the price would go. And I guess the Internet's kind of topped out last October. I think there's a pretty strong view that actually I said it at the Money Week conference in October that the bitcoin, the NASDAQ had peaked. And it does look increasingly like that. And bitcoin really is the sort of next NASDAQ on steroids, a bit like what silver is to gold. So I think that's a very simple explanation of where we are. And let's stop there. There's so many ways we can go here.
Marin Somerset Webb
Which way do you want to go?
Charlie Morris
Well, four year cycle quantum, you know, regulation.
John Stepek
I think quantum's actually really interesting because that did occur to me there because this thing where people are worried about the rise of quantum computing and that quantum computing might somehow destroy or render worthless the cryptography that protects Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. I mean, how accurate is that? Because I've heard different things about quantum. And whether that's actually correct or not.
Charlie Morris
Yeah, well, let's necessarily disclose. I'm not a computer science expert, but I do try to follow these things. And the thing about Quantum is you've got very, very powerful computing. And I guess that the threat is that if you could guess private keys at a sufficiently high rate, then you'd be able to break into the system. Now, the security has been increased over the years and the simple way to make your system quantum proof is to, is to the techies. Forgive me, but I'm going to put this into simple terms, is to increase the length of the private key. So if your password becomes longer and longer and longer, then you need quantum squared next to break the system. Now, how quickly do we get quantum? Some people say it's imminent, other people say it's years away, some people say it's theoretical. But the bottom line is about one quarter of Bitcoin wallets are not resistance to what is called the P2PK, which is basically the fret. So Satoshi's original coins that no one's ever seen the move mined in 2009 and 10, basically one and a half billion Bitcoin or thereabouts in comparison to, you know, approximately 20 million in circulation just under and, you know, they would be under threat and some other coins which have got old wallets. But, you know, Sailor and his results. About Michael Saylor, the, the head of marketing for Bitcoin, as I always say, and also the senior of microstrategy strategy, and he basically is now coming full on board with this. There's been a couple of upgrades to the Bitcoin protocol over the years. There was the Taproot and there was a Sedgwick and these were things that the core developers judged by the miners can be implemented to upgrade the network.
Marin Somerset Webb
Sorry, can I just go back? Sorry. When you say Michael Thaler is now fully on board with this, what do you mean with changing the security around Bitcoin?
Charlie Morris
Would he announced in his results last night that he's going to leave the leader charged to do this. And, and, and basically, you know, if you've got enough power and weight in the system and you convince the money to do to, to, to make the upgrade, then the upgrade will happen. It's happened twice before. And, and so I'm not worried about that. And I think to put it into economic terms, you know, when the price was 120,000, no one cared about Quantum. They went quantum schmont. But now the price has crashed. Everyone's like, oh dear, we better deal with Quantum. So they brought it to a head, you know, a crisis is an opportunity and all that. And so the price has come down. Now Quantum is front of the agenda. The upgrades to the system will happen in the coming months, possibly a year or two, but it will happen ahead of any Quantum threat. And so I personally think that the Bitcoin network is not at risk of Quantum because they'll do the right thing in the end, as they always have done in the past. Foreign.
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Marin Somerset Webb
So back to the four year cycle.
Charlie Morris
Okay, well the four year cycle is quite fun because the thesis is that you mine bitcoin and there's a Harvey every four years and, and there's a big run in the two years ahead of or 18 months years ahead into, into halving and then, and then there's boom and then everyone gets bored and there's a collapse in the, in the sort of midterms as it were. And you know at Bytree we've got this wonderful guy called Robin Griffiths. He's in his 80s now and he's been talking about the four year cycle since I can remember. And, and, and, and I started listening to him in 1998 and he was talking about it about 20 years before that and it was the UF presidential election cycle. Okay so let's, let's, let's do some four years. This, this will shock you. Okay, we'll start at 1974. There was a savage, savage bear market in 1978. Bitcoin's uninvention at this point. Gold probably. 1982 was famously the best year in history to buy the stock market and probably the bond market as well actually huge returns followed that. 86 comes next. Now 86 something didn't happen which was the top. It dragged on for another year and then we got an almighty crash cycle breaks and you don't get your dip. Then there's a little theory there. So 1990 that was a bit nasty going into the high interest rate era. 94 was the Fed rates crash. 98 the Asian Russian default crisis. 2002 was the nasty old dot com low. Yeah. Are you getting interested yet?
Marin Somerset Webb
Always interested. Always interested.
Charlie Morris
Love a sequel theory 2006 nothing happened didn't it? And we had to wait two years and then we had a mega, mega monster crash in 2008 as a result of.
Marin Somerset Webb
But if you have to, if you have to wait two years it doesn't count. It's not a four year cycle if you keep having to wait a year.
Charlie Morris
And two years cycle Cr.
Marin Somerset Webb
Four year Cycle it was every four years.
Charlie Morris
Yeah, but if you fiddle around with interest rates and things, then maybe you can drag these things out a bit longer than they should do. So perhaps fight the cycle for a bit. But then you stretch the band too far. So we got to 2006 extended to 08. 2010 wasn't great, but we had the Greek crisis as well. Okay. And now we go into the bitcoin cycle. So 2014, you couldn't see it in the market so much. 2014 was, was not memorable but bitcoin was down a lot in 2014.
John Stepek
And just to be clear, so bitcoin was launched in 08 was not 09 because it was straight after the financial crisis, wasn't it? That it kind of was bomb first.
Charlie Morris
Bitcoin price 2010 and people, people have heard of it. You know, the general public had heard of it in 2030 after Mount Gox. So we're now in 2018. That was another stink of a Bitcoin down 82%. Um, then in 2022 Bitcoin's down 74%. It was also a tech bear market in 2022 and a bond bear market. Now we're in 2026. So there's your four year cycle. And I'll say it's not bitcoin cycle, it's the, you know, it's the world cycle. And bitcoin is the expression of that cycle because it's, you know, as many people say, it's an expression of liquidity. And so you, the asset that gets hit the most is the one that's in the firing line.
Marin Somerset Webb
So should we expect it to be a bit of a canary in the cold mine? I mean obviously we've seen a lot of volatility in gold and silver and also a lot on the software stocks and big tech. But that hasn't really turned up in the indices yet because there's been quite a rotation into other stuff. Should we expect worse to happen?
Charlie Morris
Absolutely. 100%. I mean we all know we're in the biggest bubble in indexation in the history of the world and the two thirds America and within the American index, all this tech and stuff. So I think your podcast has brought that point out many times and it's just, it's the bleeding obvious, isn't it? And, but everyone continues for various reasons, career risk, regulatory, so on to hug the indices and those mega, mega, mega stocks are valued. But let's go back a few months. We saw the Spotify's and the Netflixes and those sorts of Things correct, all those sort of Internet media services and now we've got the software. But the, but the, the big tech hasn't really dived yet. It's always last to go. The figures has last. So you know, I do think that we've had this extraordinary top. But it, but that shouldn't scay from the top stock market at all because what we deserving, we run these sort of momentum models every week and we do a piece on Mondays called Global Trends by Global Trends and free to read. And basically we've been observing this enormous rotation and the main one is out of the US into the rest of the world. So the US wheat dollar partly because of sluggish S and P, rest of the world has been very strong. And then take that a stage further. We had big breakouts in consumer staples, you know, the boring stocks, the toothpaste and the washing up liquid as opposed to the exciting space exploration. So we're having that rotation now. And so there's plenty of stuff that can go up in the world when big tech stocks are going down. And of course the indices won't be very happy with the biggest stocks going down. But there's loads of global mid small cap in faraway places. You know, everyone's an expert in AI and computers and chips and things.
Marin Somerset Webb
I know, it's amazing, isn't it, how quickly that happened. Everyone went from nothing about it to being an absolute expert in I would say six months.
Charlie Morris
They're all going to be experts in Southeast Asia and Latin America and Central Europe, you know.
Marin Somerset Webb
Oh, I mean I'm an expert in all that stuff already, Charlie, and so is Joe.
Charlie Morris
You are an expert in everything.
John Stepek
We all know this was from the last cycle.
Marin Somerset Webb
Yeah, exactly.
John Stepek
We haven't updated.
Marin Somerset Webb
We're experts but slightly out of date from last time around. We're also experts on commodity super cycles, aren't we John? So that might come in handy.
John Stepek
Oh yeah.
Charlie Morris
Oh yeah.
Marin Somerset Webb
But Charlie, listen, the key question really is this. Has there been any change to the long term care case for bitcoin? You know, so everyone thought that with President Trump's second presidency that this would be an extraordinary environment for cryptocurrencies in general. There'd be a regulatory environment that would mean they would kind of go to the moon. That hasn't quite happened. And there's also maybe competition to bitcoin in the form of the various different types of stablecoin. And so there's, there has been change, there are shifts. Has anything to your mind changed for the long term? Case for holding Bitcoin.
Charlie Morris
No, it's the Internet. So the Internet stocks are going down. Bitcoin's caught up in that. Is the Internet shrinking?
Marin Somerset Webb
I don't understand why Bitcoin represents the Internet. I know it represents software, I know it's an expression of liquidity. But anything else could be an expression of liquidity as well.
Charlie Morris
On a different day here we've got booming stablecoin industry. You know, we've got booming computers. AI is going to. Hedge funds will probably end up being run by AI and they're not, they're not going to fiddle around with a, you know, good old fashioned bank account doing transactions. They're going, yes, straight to crypto.
Marin Somerset Webb
And why would they just use stablecoins though?
Charlie Morris
Well, they will, but it's all part of the same ecosystem. You know, they're all connected. And I think that the bitcoin, I mean, let's look at the price of bitcoin. Okay, it's just crashed down to $60,000. I think it's already 65.
Marin Somerset Webb
No, no, it's back, back up to 66. Don't worry, we've got proper volatility going here on here. Yeah, we're up five, five and a half percent to $66,267.29. Okay, so that's a hell of a move from, from 60,000 where it was overnight.
Charlie Morris
Right, So I was referring to l. Middle of the night. And it's already recovered quite a lot from that. We can express it in various different ways. And I think the important point is that the levels that it's at now are the same levels of the peak of the last cycle. So in 2021 we were flirting in the mid-60s and here we are in the mid-60s. Now the previous cycle we saw exactly the same behavior. The price peaked at 19,000 at the end of 2007. And then in the 22 bear market cycle, in that bear market it goes down to 15, 16, there's below. So it's a straightforward technical analysis, 101 where your old high is the next low and that sort of thing. And forgive me, I don't really run my investment strategy on these theories, but what we have here, a major point resistance, cheap level going to 21, which was probably our most hyped cycle ever for 30 Bitcoin. Those levels are pretty solid. And you know, a lot of products were launched and we had, you know, futures were well established by then and, and all these things.
John Stepek
Okay, so, so I mean, because obviously the other question Here is, I am a infamous no coiner but I would quite like to catch it on the next cycle saying as I'm not having fun staying poor. So, you know, you're basically saying that around about here is is a good time to buy if you want to get.
Marin Somerset Webb
Oh no, no, no. This can't happen. John buying his first bitcoin would literally mean that the whole world would implode.
John Stepek
It's the end of crypto when I press that button.
Marin Somerset Webb
Don't encourage him to do this, Charlie.
Charlie Morris
John, do you any go?
John Stepek
Yes.
Charlie Morris
Okay, so let's do a bit of bitcoin and gold. Should we? Yeah, yeah.
John Stepek
Even Sid likes that idea.
Marin Somerset Webb
And that's what Sid thinks about bitcoin and gold. Danger Alert. Alert.
Charlie Morris
In 2017, you know, very briefly, one Bitcoin would buy you 15 ounces of gold that crashed out about 3 in 2019. And then in the 21 BE market, a bull market. I beg your pardon, it got you 35 ounces. So if Bitcoin, 35 ounces, that crashed down to about 10, 9 or 10 and then earlier this year you would have nearly got 40 ounces. You put up 39 ounces of gold and we've now crashed down to, to about 14. Yep. So you know, gold is. Gold has had a bit of a wobble recently. Silver, a massive crash out of really strong, super strong uptrends, massively overboard, massively hyped. So they've crashed from highs. Bitcoin was already downtrend. It's been in a downtrend since October, since the NASDAQ peaked and the tech stocks that were coming down and that's crashed from a downtrend. So you basically got, I think in, in, in the financial speak, you know, one of them is 10,000 Sigma something overbought and the other's 1,000,000 Sigma deviations oversold. So you've basically got one super hot market which is gold and you've got one ice cold market which is bitcoin. And so you know, which one do you buy today? And if you think bitcoin's going to zero because it's a Ponzi scheme and you, you know, but the 17 year old Ponzi scheme, they're like, oh, 5,000 year old Ponzi.
Marin Somerset Webb
Hey, they can always last longer than you think possible.
Charlie Morris
Yeah. Is there any Ponzi skiing with huge transparency and publicly open blockchain and a free market and all that?
John Stepek
To be fair, I don't think it's a Ponzi scheme. I think that is is just a lazy dismissal.
Charlie Morris
Ponzi on the heck, I mean is that.
Marin Somerset Webb
No, there will be no Ponzi on the head of this. It will say, charlie Morris says buy bitcoin now if you don't want to have fun staying poor. Yeah, right, John.
Charlie Morris
Yep. Yeah. So I'm not really the bitcoin you think I am. It's my night job, it's not my day job, you know, you know a bitcoin gold guy. Yes. So excuse the flood but you know, bold gold is bitcoin gold risk weighted and all that. And we listed in London three months ago, Checkerbold took a bolt in Germany, took a bolt in France, in the Netherlands, in Sweden and Italy on Monday.
Marin Somerset Webb
And congratulations Charlie.
Charlie Morris
Bold, bold, bold. And you know it's 2/3 gold, 1 for bitcoin and basically trying to get the best out of both because the combination of the two assets is truly magical. You know, they, they work against each other. They have consistent low correlation and it's a very powerful thing to own. And if you risk weight, bitcoin and gold and to those, to those by volatility, basically you've got the cleanest expression of the global money supply growth out there. So when people say, oh, bitcoin's the monetary hedge. No, gold's the monetary hedge. Actually one's a risk off traditionally gold obviously has looked pretty risk on recently, but let's face it, it's driven by central banks more than anything else. And obviously speculators joined the party in the last year as John Reed was saying in your last podcast. But, but the central banks are the under underpinning all of this. And the central banks don't buy silver and they don't buy bitcoin. So you know, you know they, they, they don't yet the narratives are the same. So people say, oh yeah, end of the world dollar crisis be, be basement this sort of thing. And then, and then actually it's not applicable to any of them. You know, they're all going up or down for their own reason. And silver's crash from a bubble and bitcoins crashed from a period of weakness. Related tech, very different but you put them together and you just get this calm expression of the global money supply. So it comes back to liquidity. The more money there is in the world, the more money is there in markets. Then these things go up long term. And Bitcoin is 75. If you take out stablecoins it's 75% of crypto. You know, this one got the whole asset class Next is Ethereum and then the rest of it's all pretty small. And of course there are.
Marin Somerset Webb
So maybe, maybe to keep the global financial structures safe, we should be encouraging John to buy a bit of Bold as opposed to actually go out and buy his own bitcoin.
Charlie Morris
Well of course John should buy gold. He should switch this gold to bold because if you've got gold that's massively more warns of standard deviations over then diversify and you can't diversify gold with silver. So how do you have an alternative asset? Of course you can add to your silver some smacks and P500 but we're talking about alternative assets here. We're talking about off grid, globally neutral, no cash flow assets which are far more interesting. And what's your choice? Something that's going to give you maintain high liquidity and low correlation. That's bitcoin. So bold is what you should do John.
Marin Somerset Webb
Yeah, there you go John. Okay, so there we go. So Charlie, finally the key thing we're pulling out of this is in that your opinion it's absolutely fine to hold onto your bitcoin for the long term. Nothing significant has changed what everyone thought about bitcoin previously, one can continue to think now but if you want to hold it in a less volatile form, maybe mix it up with gold a.
Charlie Morris
Bit, well that would be monetary.
Marin Somerset Webb
Yeah, I know I'm repeating your take back to you just for confirmation purposes. Yeah, because everyone, everyone will probably still know roughly why I stand on this matters and John over there, who doesn't hold any bitcoin just for the record? Of course I do John. Well we'll. I tell you what John, in our next podcast next week we will find out what you have done. So if any listeners have any recommended recommendations for John, go out and buy a bitcoin and destroy the global financial structure or buy a nice ETF that mixes them up or just hang on to your gold. What does everyone think John should do? Please email us about that on merrimoneyloomburg.net Charlie thank you so much for joining us today. John, thank you too. Thanks for listening to this week's Maren Talks Money. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe. Wherever you listen to podcasts, keep sending questions or comments and advice for John of course to marinmoneylumberg.net you can also follow me and John on Twitter. Twitter or X I'm marioness W John is John Underscore Stepek and Charlie, you are at Atlas Pulse, right?
Charlie Morris
Yeah. On twitter or biketree.com by on twitter.
Marin Somerset Webb
Or bytetree.com yeah this episode was hosted by me, Marin Somerset Webb with John Stepek. It was produced by some Asadi and Moses Andam. Special thanks to Charlie Morris for joining us on this emergency Marin talks Money Pod.
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Merryn Talks Money – February 6, 2026
Host: Merryn Somerset Webb
Guests: John Stepek (Money Distilled Newsletter), Charlie Morris (ByteTree)
In this surprise “emergency” edition, host Merryn Somerset Webb convenes a quick panel to confront the dramatic crash in Bitcoin’s price. With John Stepek and crypto expert Charlie Morris, the episode explores why Bitcoin plummeted, its cyclical nature, quantum computing threats, whether it remains a long-term asset, and if diversification (e.g. with gold) makes sense. The trio balances analysis, skepticism, humor, and practical advice for rattled investors.
“Emergency Pod: Is It All Over for Bitcoin?” delivers an insightful, sometimes irreverent dive into crypto panic. The hosts and guest conclude:
The tone is frank, lively, and practical, providing reassurance and perspective for those shaken by Bitcoin’s latest wild ride.