← Merryn Talks Money
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- [00:00]
IBM Representative
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- [00:29]
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- [01:07]
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- [01:15]
Rachel Reeves
Talk up the teamwork.
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- [01:38]
Cincinnati Insurance Narrator
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts
- [01:41]
Marin Somerset Webb
Radio News Marantalk's Money Listeners Are you a Bloomberg subscriber? If you're not, here is why you should be. You will get ad free episodes of this podcast and access to my Marin Talks Money newsletter as well as access to John Stepik's award winning newsletter Money Distilled. And you will also get access to subscriber only events such as the one we'll be hosting on March 17th. See the link in the show notes to sign up to that. And of course you will get unlimited access to bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg app, including exclusive stories, premium market tools. Subscribe now@bloomberg.com podcastoffer. Welcome to Marin Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I am Marin Somerset Webb, Editor at Large for Bloomberg UK wealth and I'm
- [02:37]
John Stepic
Join Stebig, Senior Reporter and author of the Money Distilled newsletter.
- [02:41]
Marin Somerset Webb
John Afternoon Afternoon, Marin so today the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, she delivered her spring forecast in the Parliament and after that speech she actually traveled in person to the Bloomberg offices and spoke to our colleague Stephanie Flanders who is the head of Government and Economics here at Bloomb. Now we are going to listen to that interview in just a few minutes. Lucky us. But John, before that, did you make anything of the spring statement? Was there anything in there that you could even have a go at making anything of?
- [03:08]
John Stepic
The one thing I will say in the Chancellor's favour is that she wanted it to be a non event and it was a non event. She didn't make any policy change announcements and the whole thing was entirely overshadowed by the war in Iran. So actually, yeah, so we essentially, we
- [03:25]
Marin Somerset Webb
could ignore it because it's completely irrelevant because any conversation about inflation or interest rates or anything like that is meaningless in the face of a possible stagflationary crisis.
- [03:36]
John Stepic
Yes, I mean, actually it's a good lesson in the whole pointlessness of this Office for Budget Responsibility forecast business, where we sit there and treat these as if they're handed down on stone tablets and to be fairly OBR even they said when it came out, by the way, this could swing in absolutely any direction now, given what's happened in Iran. But here's something. I got an email from Berenberg earlier and they pointed out that the OBR's forecasts are contingent on Brent crude being at $63 a barrel, which it was roughly two days ago, now it's at 83 and natural gas price 64 pence a therm is now £1.50 a thermostat. So if those numbers last, then obviously inflation is going to be higher, Interest rates are not going to go down the way that we'd all actually been hoping for about a week ago. And that means growth is probably going to be worse, inflation's going to be worse, the fiscal headroom the Chancellor keeps going on about will not exist and things will deteriorate quite significantly. So let's hope that it's all actually over within a week. Which also I'm struggling to see the path there.
- [04:45]
Marin Somerset Webb
And if only we had a good long term domestic supply of oil and gas.
- [04:49]
John Stepic
I know. Where could we find such a thing?
- [04:52]
Marin Somerset Webb
Such a thing. Now listen, I know you say how marvelous it is that it was a non event, that nothing happened and I know that's what she wanted. But when I look at the state of the uk, I look at the state of the economy, I look at 16% plus youth unemployment, like all these things, I think, gosh, I don't know, maybe there's something, anything that could be done. And in a way, while a period of silence is in many ways welcome A real, actual plan to do something about these awful effects of previous policies on the UK economy would also be kind of useful.
- [05:24]
Stephanie Flanders
Yeah.
- [05:25]
John Stepic
I mean, there were hopes that she might do something about the youth unemployment, if only delaying the rise in the minimum wage, for example. And who knows? I mean, maybe there are things that she's planning to do. I mean, that sort of feel that she was probably caught in the hop by all of this stuff and then hasn't come up with any replacement plan to tackle it. She's meant to be meeting the oil and gas industry, for example, tomorrow. Whether she'll actually do anything about the tax problems that are stopping them from exploding in the North Sea is quite another matter. But, no, you're right, there's loads of messes. I mean, part of the problem, obviously, is that Rachel Reeves has compounded. She's not responsible for them directly, but she certainly made them all a lot worse with the policies that she's pursued in her previous two budgets. So I'm not convinced that she's the one who can affect things. But we shall see.
- [06:15]
Marin Somerset Webb
We shall see. Well, on that happy note, let's get to the interview. Bloomberg's Stephanie Flanders speaking with Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Tuesday afternoon.
- [06:27]
Stephanie Flanders
Chancellor, thank you so much for doing this. You've come over to Bloomberg headquarters straight from the treasury on a busy day.
- [06:34]
Rachel Reeves
I came straight from the Chamber.
- [06:36]
Stephanie Flanders
From the Chamber, of course, yes. You wanted to talk about your thoughts about the state of the UK economy and the growth plan going forward, but obviously, given everything that's happening today in markets in the Middle East, I want to start with just asking you a few questions about that. I mean, you mentioned in your speech in the Commons that you are planning to talk tomorrow to North Sea oil producers. What are you hoping to get out of that conversation?
- [07:02]
Rachel Reeves
So I said in the Chamber that some of the most affected industries I wanted to spend some time with and been in touch with over the last few days. And obviously, developments in oil and gas markets are absolutely crucial for every family and every business in Britain. Now, oil and gas production in the North Sea counts for less than 1% of global supply of oil and gas, but it's still very important for. It's important for jobs in the uk, it's important for investment, and it's important for every family in Britain. So I'm going to be meeting with them tomorrow to talk about their production plans and also to talk about how they see the situation evolving, because every oil and gas company, pretty much, that operates in the North Sea will also operate in other parts of the world, whether that is Shell or BP or Equinor or others. And so getting their insights into how oil and gas prices might evolve based on a number of different scenarios over the coming days and weeks will be very useful for me and for the government.
- [08:11]
Stephanie Flanders
We can give you our scenarios as well, but our economists are looking at this as you suggest. There's nothing that our North Sea oil producers could do to affect a global oil price hike. It is already up significantly. If it's sustained for any period. It seems like it would be much harder to get the headline inflation rate in the UK back to 2%, as you were hoping it would be. You did a lot of things in the budget to encourage, should we say, inflation to go back to 2% even by April. Has Donald Trump's war in Iran taken that away from you?
- [08:43]
Rachel Reeves
Well, the first thing I would say is that the action that I took in the budget will still happen. So the freeze in prescription charges, the freeze in rail fares, and also the £150 off of energy bills that I announced in the budget will take effect next month. And so people paying families, paying their gas and electricity bills do not need to worry about the next three months. That price cap is set and they will get the benefit of those policies I announced in the budget. But, of course, you know, we have to see how things evolve in terms of where oil and gas prices go going forward. But what the Office of Budget Responsibility confirmed today and what the bank of England said when they published their most recent outlook for inflation in February, was that the measures that we have taken as a government are helping bring inflation back down to target much sooner than they anticipated. I think in the OBR numbers today, inflation is likely to meet target six months earlier than they previously envisaged. Now, of course, that doesn't take into account developments over the last few days, but also, we are only just into what is happening in the Middle East. We saw each other last week, Stephanie, and we were not talking about the Middle east or Iran. There was lots of other things to talk about in the economy, but this only really kicked off on Friday. So, of course, we monitor developments very, very closely and do everything in our power to protect businesses and families in the UK and we are better placed to do that than we were just a few months and years ago because of the choices we've been taken as a government. So what I was able to set out today in the OBR forecast is that both interest rates and inflation have been falling faster than expected. Government borrowing and debt have been revised down since the budget last year. G7 borrowing is not coming down at the same rate that it is in the UK. Our public sector net borrowing forecast to be just 4.3% this year. It's the lowest in six years and the first time in 22 years that our borrowing has been lower than the G7 average. So welcome developments which put us in a stronger position to be able to withstand the shocks, including the shock that we are likely to be responding to in the weeks and months ahead than we would have been without the action that we've taken as a government to secure and stabilise the public finances.
- [11:20]
Stephanie Flanders
But it is vulnerable. I mean, even that fall in borrowing is driven in large part actually by lower than expected spending, which is actually, in turn lower spending on gilt interest, which is a result of lower inflation. So that lower path for inflation that we were counting on, even markets were assuming for this year, that was also going to potentially pave the way for another rate cut. You mentioned in your speech how proud you were that you've been part of. The bank of England had been able to have six rate cuts since labor came back.
- [11:51]
Rachel Reeves
There's three things going on. There's three things that are going on to put our public finances in a better position. First of all, tax revenues have come in stronger than anticipated. And we saw that particularly in the January borrowing growing numbers. It was the biggest surplus on record.
- [12:07]
Stephanie Flanders
But year to date, isn't it still lower than the forecast, than the OBR's forecast? So that month was very good.
- [12:14]
Rachel Reeves
Borrowing has come in lower this year than the borrowing has come in lower than forecast. And spending. We set out the spending review last summer. Many people said, well, we wouldn't really be able to live within those budgets. Well, this year we have not used all of the surplus that is put aside for genuine emergencies, and instead we're able to roll that surplus. So spending is under control. Whereas, of course, when I became Chancellor, the reserve for the year that we were in, and we were only three, three months into it, had been spent four times over. So we haven't used a full reserve for this year. And also borrowing costs have come down. The OBR today forecast that borrowing costs next year will be 4 billion pounds lower than even they thought in the budget last year. So tax revenue coming in a bit stronger, spending coming in as planned, and in fact, not even using the full reserve and borrowing costs coming down because of that additional stability we brought to the economy have all contributed to the better forecast for the public finances that I was able to set out today,
- [13:19]
Stephanie Flanders
but that good news, a lot of that was related to the falling gilt yields. Some of that has been reversed even just today in the concerns in the markets and expectations of lower interest rates from the bank of England, which traders in the market this week have decided are going to certainly not happen in March now, as they were expecting, and maybe not happen in the next few months.
- [13:42]
Rachel Reeves
I won't comment on market movements over a day or two. I think it is too early to know what the market impact is. Obviously, the immediate concern for the government is trying to get the 300,000 British citizens who are in the Middle east back home, if they want to come back to the UK I think around 100,000 have already registered for the scheme. To say that you are there and that is welcome and that's our immediate goal, as well as protecting our personnel and our assets in the region. But of course, the economic consequences of any extended military action, especially in the Middle east, which is so crucial for trade and for oil and gas, would have an impact on the UK economy. But it is too early to judge exactly what that will be and therefore what response would be needed.
- [14:38]
Stephanie Flanders
And I mean, our focus on the economy today. I'm not going to go into the government's stance in relation to the support or not for what the President's doing, but judging from Donald Trump's posts in the last and interviews in the last 24 hours, he does seem to be not very happy with the Prime Minister as a result of the last few days. Do you worry that that will make it harder to finalize, finally finalize, the trade situation? The trade deal with the US which was put into quite a lot of uncertainty by that Supreme Court judgment a
- [15:08]
Rachel Reeves
few weeks ago, when it comes to decisions around using British armed forces to take part in conflicts around the world, it is very important that we judge those on whether it is legal and whether it is the right thing to do. You can't make a decision about whether to get British armed forces involved in a conflict because it may or may not make it more likely to get a trade deal. And we judged that there was not a legal basis for offensive action on Iran. But of course, once Iran responded particularly,
- [15:51]
Stephanie Flanders
sorry, not a legal basis for the UK but presumably not for the US either. If you're making a judge, we can
- [15:55]
Rachel Reeves
only make judgments for ourselves. And that was the judgment that we came to based on our legal advice. And it's up to other countries to explain what action they've taken and on what basis but once Iran responded in the way that they did, including with, with missiles being launched into our allies who were not involved in the offensive action and the risks to our military bases in Cyprus, of course it was right that we became involved in defensive action and we were involved in that from Saturday. And of course on Sunday we gave permission for US jets to use British assets from which to launch those defensive actions. And that's the decision that we've taken as a government on trade. Proud of what we've done as a government. We've secured a trade deal with India, I think probably the best trade deal that any country in the world has secured with India. And we hope to be able to bring that into effect in the next couple of months. But in addition, improving our trade relations with our nearest neighbors and trading partners in the European Union. And I'm going to say more about our relations with the European Union in a speech I'm going to give in a couple of weeks time, because I think that that is one of the big bets that we can take as a country to change our trajectory for productivity and growth. We've already rejoining the Erasmus scheme to allow young people to be able to study in European Union countries and for young people in those countries to be able to study in the uk. But we also want to deliver an energy and electricity trading deal. We want a food and farming agreement, an SPS agreement, and also we want bring in a youth mobility scheme so that young people in Britain can go and take advantage of opportunities in Europe and vice versa. Young people in the European Union can come and work in the uk. I know that some countries around the world are looking to pull up the drawbridge. But Britain benefits from being an open trading economy, open to trade, open to investment and also open to talent.
- [18:02]
Stephanie Flanders
But for trade, it's enormously important just to have some kind of certainty about what the trade rules are. I mean, are you able to say to UK exporters to the US that you know currently what the trade rules are for going into the US because it's not clear to us.
- [18:18]
Rachel Reeves
Well, we secured a trade deal with the US last year on the export of goods. Since then we've gone further and secured a deal around pharmaceuticals, which is obviously crucial for the UK given the importance of our pharmaceuticals.
- [18:32]
Stephanie Flanders
As far as you're concerned, those things are not affected by the Supreme Court ruling as far as you're concerned.
- [18:37]
Rachel Reeves
Obviously, we are in constant negotiation and dialogue with the US administration, but there's absolutely no reason why the trade deal that we secured last year can't be maintained. And of course there are other areas as well where we want to go further with our trade links with the us Whether that is on the future of capital markets, where we want to deepen and strengthen the capital market links between our economy, making it easier for British companies to raise finance in the US and US US businesses to raise finance in London as well as doing more in terms of mutual recognition of standards, so that if you have a license for a product in the US you can bring it to the UK and again vice versa to help British businesses in financial services and elsewhere to be able to launch products in the us which is obviously hugely beneficial for UK firms. So there are other areas as well where we want to deepen those relations with the us but our nearest neighbors and trading partners are countries in the eu. And the benefits from rebuilding trust between US and the European Union and crucially those trade links in goods and I hope in services in due course is what will have the biggest impact on British businesses and jobs and living standards.
- [20:00]
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- [22:49]
Stephanie Flanders
Let's talk about that sort of broader approach to growth I know you're going to talk about. Also in a speech in a couple of weeks, you promised that today's spring statement, spring forecast would be a non event. So I think I can say to you you succeeded in making it not very eventful. We haven't had all this kind of speculation that we had leading the budget, so we haven't had that uncertainty. As you've mentioned, the economic news leading up to this, at least till this week, was fairly positive. The political environment is, if anything, has deteriorated for the government. And we had a poll today that showed labor even potentially behind the Greens, as well as reform, I guess. I mean your economic mission, which was central to this government. A large chunk of voters you look at the polling, are disappointed, feel that the government should have done better. Do you think that you could have done better?
- [23:39]
Rachel Reeves
People voted for change at the general election a year and a half ago and I'm deeply aware of my responsibility in helping to deliver that change. Now since I became chancellor, wages have increased faster than inflation every single month. And the six cuts in interest rates means that if you're taking out a mortgage, a typical mortgage, you'll be saving around 1,300 pounds a year than if you'd have taken that mortgage out the day before I became Chancellor of the Exchequer. But the years leading up to that had been really tough for people. The last parliament was the first parliament ever where people were poorer on average at the end of it than they were at the start. And it takes time to unwind that legacy. We've made progress, but is there more to do? Absolutely there is. Which is why I'm so focused on bringing down inflation and interest rates and returning that stability to the economy. But the other thing that makes people's lives better is having public services that function properly, being able to get a hospital appointment or a doctor's appointment when you need it, ensuring your kid gets into the school they want to go to and has good qualified teachers, buses and trains that run frequently and are affordable. All of those things that, you know, we're starting to make a difference. But there is more to do. I think that the next election, what people are going to ask is, are me and my family better off? And I'm determined that the answer to that question is yes. By ensuring that people have more money in their pockets to spend on the things that they want to spend it on. Not just the essentials, the mortgage, the bills, the weekly food shop, but more money to spend on the things that they actually want to do that give them pleasure in their lives. And I'm determined that people have more of that. But the first thing you need to do to achieve that is to bring stability back to the economy. And what the OBR forecasts show today is that we have made great strides forward in returning that stability to the economy, which should pay dividends in terms of having money to spend on the priorities of working people and to make working people better off.
- [25:48]
Stephanie Flanders
There was quite a lot in the forecast. I mean, there is a slightly lower growth forecast for this year and that's due to lower net migration, which the government has obviously taken a lot of measures on. But the ABR expects it and expects that fall in net migration, the increase in the labor force from people coming in to be permanent, but that that sort of half a percent of GDP loss and GDP growth will be made up for in productivity. We'll actually get more out of the people we have working in this country. So is that the new UK growth model that we're not, not really welcoming people in in the same way, but we want to get, we hope employers get more out of British workers.
- [26:26]
Rachel Reeves
So we want to make sure that the best talent in the world comes to Britain and that's why we've extended our global talent visas and they're available for high net worth individuals, entrepreneurs and also academics in key subjects, particularly where they bring research teams with them to the uk. And those new global talent visas are proving Very popular. And that is about us being able to have greater say about who comes into this country. And we have tightened up the rules around dependence, around students, around low skilled workers. That is the right thing to do. And we want to make sure that people who are already here have got the skills to fill the vacancies that exist in the economy. But as I said before, I want Britain to be seen as a country that is welcome to investment traits and talent. And that's what those global talent visas do. Now, the OBR have revised down their forecasts for net migration. So it's something like 200,000 net migration a year. That is obviously way down on the nearly a million number we had a couple of years ago. But what matters in terms of GDP is whether that GDP is felt in people's lives. And that's why GDP per capita is probably the better measure of whether that GDP is actually impacting on your living standards. And what the OBR today say is that they're revising up GDP per capita and expect GDP per capita to increase by 5.6% during the course of this Parliament. And of course in the last Parliament, GDP per capita actually fell. And so that is a sharp turnaround from one Parliament to the next. And those numbers were revised up today, which is very welcome because in the end what matters is whether that GDP is being felt by you and your family. And GDP per capita is what really shows that.
- [28:17]
Stephanie Flanders
Yeah, that's very striking in the numbers. I mean, if we end up, I mean the path we're on now, we could have negative net migration by the end of the year. I'm quite interested in whether that's going to be a sort of cause for celebration inside the treasury, given the pressure on the government to reduce those numbers or concern about how that was achieved. I mean, the things that were easiest to control. I mean students, for example. I spoke to someone at a major university last night that has been benefiting from some of the measures you just talked about, attracting foreign academics, academics from the us but at the same time they're losing foreign students who find it less attractive the regime here and are even sort of worried about the environment for foreign students. So if you're undermining the business model for universities, then it doesn't matter so much that they're able to attract all these great academics.
- [29:04]
Rachel Reeves
I think we've done a lot to support universities since we came into office. We've increased R and D funding and obviously a lot of that budget goes to universities to invest in basic research and we are reintroducing maintenance grants for the poorest students to encourage them to take that leap and go to university. But we've got to get the balance right. It has been the case that on some courses, at some colleges and universities, many people at the end of their course are applying for asylum in Britain. And that is not what student visas were ever meant for. And so we have got to be tightening up when there is abuse. But at the same time, that gives us greater freedom to introduce those high talent visas because we're freeing up space to enable us to offer more of those. And I think that's what is most valuable to us as a country, to attract that wealth creating talent to the, to the uk. And that is our ambition. At the same time, we've got to do more to make sure that young people in particular who are already in this country have got the skills and the confidence to succeed in the jobs market.
- [30:18]
Stephanie Flanders
Do you worry some of our most successful sectors that we would encourage people to go into are in professional services that are potentially going to be the most transformed by AI. So do you worry that some of our most successful companies and sectors has got this massive missile headed in its direction called AI?
- [30:34]
Rachel Reeves
The industries where we are successful, like professional business services, financial services, creative industries and AI and tech and life sciences. Of course there are risks of disruption and some jobs going, but there's also massive opportunity if we seize them to get the innovation and get the research here in Britain and then build those new businesses in Britain. I am an optimist when it comes to innovation and AI. Every other wave of transformation and industrial change has resulted in there being more jobs and better paid jobs. There's no reason why this revolution can't be the same, but we've got to make sure that people in this country have got the skills to be able to do those jobs. We're well placed. We have got some of the best universities in the world, we've got some of the best entrepreneurs in the world, and we've got a government that is backing that, for example, through R and D funding. But we've got to seize that opportunity rather than being scared of it. And one of the things I'm going to be talking about in my Mays lecture next week is how as a government, as a country, we can do more to back innovation and AI, but in a way where the rewards are reaped by ordinary citizens.
- [31:46]
Stephanie Flanders
I mean, as you know, Chancellor, there's a lot of people in the city, a lot of Bloomberg clients, who talk about how the environment, the tax environment and elsewhere, other things has changed since labor came into power. And they're all, they say they're advising their children to move to Dubai. We're seeing clients move their accounts, hedge fund investors and others move their accounts to Dubai. Does that look like such a safe decision today when the missiles are flying?
- [32:11]
Rachel Reeves
I think all of us are reading stories in the paper or hearing of people who we know or we've worked with who have made those decisions to move abroad. But I would say that there are lots of things that are attractive about the uk a safe and secure economy with strong defences. And that is one of the many things that is attractive about being in the uk. But we only have those things because we pay for them, including investing more in our defence, which in the world that we live in today, seems more important than ever.
- [32:44]
Stephanie Flanders
Well, another time I'll ask you how you're going to get that 3% of GDP, but I suspect I'm getting ushered out. So thank you very much, Chancellor, for joining us.
- [32:53]
Rachel Reeves
Thank you, Stephanie.
- [32:57]
Marin Somerset Webb
Thanks for listening to this week's Marind Talks Money. If you like our show, rate to review and subscribe wherever you listen to your podcast and keep sending your questions or comments to marinmoneyloomburg.net you can also follow me and John on Twitter or x John is really going for it on Twitter at the moment, by the way. Well worth following if you don't already. I'm Erinsw and John is JohnStepec. This episode was hosted by me, Marisamset Webb. It was produced by Sam Asadi and Moses Andam Sound designed by Blake Maples.
- [33:27]
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- [34:32]
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4imprint Narrator
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