From Q-Day to Mars: The Market Shocks That Could Define the Year Ahead

Summary

Merryn Talks Money: From Q-Day to Mars – The Market Shocks That Could Define the Year Ahead

Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Merryn Somerset Webb (M)
Guest: John Hardy (J), Global Head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank

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Episode Overview

This episode explores Saxo Bank’s annual list of “outrageous predictions”—low-probability, high-impact scenarios that could upend global markets in the coming year. Merryn and John discuss topics ranging from the threat of quantum computing to financial cryptography (“Q-Day”), the future of gold, potential space industry IPOs, AI mishaps, the prospect of a gold-backed Chinese currency, and cultural shifts including a “Swifty Put” as Taylor Swift gets married and global BMI plummets with new obesity drugs. The conversation moves from macro-market paranoia to playful speculation, all grounded in thoughtful analysis of financial systems, technology, and society.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Q-Day: Quantum Computing Shatters Crypto Security

Timestamps: 01:23–08:49

• Q-Day Defined:

  • Q-Day marks the hypothetical moment when a quantum computer becomes powerful and accurate enough to break existing digital encryption, making passwords and financial protections obsolete overnight.
  • “Q Day is simply…the day quantum computing can essentially crack into our digital encryption infrastructure.” – John Hardy (02:10)

• Systemic Risks:

  • The mere rumor or proof-of-concept of such capability could trigger panic and bank runs, especially in crypto.
  • “Imagine classic bank runs. And a classic bank run nowadays could look like people wanting to get their crypto turned into gold...” – J (03:29)

• Impact on Bitcoin & Crypto:

  • If Bitcoin’s core security is breached, its value could collapse.
  • “Once that's gone, there's kind of nothing left.” – M (04:24)
  • “Q-day makes Bitcoin worth nothing. And we know Q-day is coming. So why isn't Bitcoin worth nothing already?” – M (04:32)

• Gold as Safe Haven:

  • In a post-Q-Day panic, physical gold likely becomes the ultimate trust asset, potentially skyrocketing in value (suggested $10,000/oz and beyond).
  • “I suspect that if this really happened… gold could go to inconceivable levels.” – J (08:43)

• Memorable Exchange:

  • Merryn pokes fun at the “alchemy” of gold creation being possible once solar energy is sent from space—and therefore, gold would be free.
    • “Once we've figured out how to beam solar energy… and energy becomes permanently abundant and free, alchemy will be possible. And the idea of gold going to $10,000 suddenly disappears because gold too will be free.” – M (07:48)

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2. SpaceX and the New Space Race

Timestamps: 08:52–15:42

• SpaceX Starship & Space Economy:

  • The next disruptive scenario: SpaceX’s “Starship” finally works, enabling massive, cheap launches.
  • “If this Starship system is realized, it allows vast capacities...maybe on the order of magnitude, which is what you need to get to the Moon.” – J (09:14)

• Space IPOs and Lunar Real Estate Bubble:

  • SpaceX goes public (IPO), driving speculative frenzy; lunar land is mapped and sold off, mirroring NFT and housing bubbles—until it pops.
  • “You get a wild NFT-like bidding craze that soars, then crashes. People start buying real estate on the moon and then they realize they're paying more for that than they are for a nice house in Wiltshire and everything crashes.” – M (13:32)

• Extraterrestrial Industrialization:

  • Data centers and bioprinting in zero gravity (e.g., pharma crystals, organs) become feasible.
  • “If you had the availability of these lower… price points for launching, you could create a fab...for pharma companies... making crystals for… drugs in outer space, and bioprinting…” – J (14:13)

• Mars Tax Haven:

  • Elon Musk envisioning Mars as a sovereign, tax-free haven, off-planet for his companies.
  • “Establishing your own sovereign nation on a different planet. It's just taking Dubai one step further...” – J (12:55)

• Memorable Quote:

  • “I mean, this is just a more ambitious version of a 30-year-old leaving the UK for Dubai to pay less tax, right?” – M (12:47)

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3. Risks in the New Space Era

Timestamps: 15:42–18:04

• Space Conflict & Junk:
  • Growth in space industry could breed conflict over territory and resources; risk of space debris (Kessler Syndrome) multiplying, making launches impossible.
  • “There's a war coming in space, right?” – M (15:55)
  • “If there is a massive collision… there could be knock on effects and then we'd be pretty much not able to launch.” – J (17:29)

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4. Dumb AI Triggers a Trillion-Dollar Cleanup

Timestamps: 18:16–21:53

• AI Misadventures:

  • Accidents or unintended consequences from agentic AI (AIs carrying out real-world, complex actions) could erase databases, cause real-world harm, require costly intervention.
  • “You need software called a human being to go in and do the cleanup...suddenly these skills of these old fellows, extremely valuable...” – J (20:15)

• Rise of ‘AI Janitor’ Profession:

  • Coding isn’t dead; the need for elite human troubleshooters could surge.
  • “I’ve been very grateful…people telling me I shouldn’t teach my children to code…now I find that if they’d learned to code properly, they could be AI janitors.” – M (19:49)

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5. Dollar Dominance Challenged by Beijing – The Golden Yuan

Timestamps: 22:32–27:05

• China’s Gold Plans:

  • China creates a gold-backed currency (possibly for central bank and trading partner use), challenging the US dollar’s reserve status.
  • “Is it quote unquote replaced? No, the dollar itself will never be replaced. But there could be a rival…” – J (25:22)

• Implications:

  • If credible, demand for US Treasuries could fall, dollar could slide, global monetary trust shifts.
  • “I mean, the idea here is taking a stab at how global money will be shaping up…when you have what seems to be a slow divorce of US and China.” – J (22:53)

• Notable Exchange:

  • “This doesn’t seem to me to be one of your more outrageous predictions...It seems to me to be something that is almost inevitable.” – M (26:13)

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6. The Not-So-Outrageous Outrage: A Normal US Election

Timestamps: 27:05–30:21

• Reversion to Civility:

  • Prediction: US politics swings back toward normalcy, unity emerges, and social media’s influence is tamed.
  • “Instead of continuing to get more crazy and partisan, actually we revert to the mean a little bit in US Politics and we have a very orderly and normal midterm elections.” – J (27:24)

• Algorithm Accountability:

  • Congressional efforts to regulate algorithmic outrage cycles could change the media landscape.
  • “There’s a bit of wishful thinking...But there does seem to be increasing awareness around this.” – J (28:53)

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7. Obesity Drugs for All – Including Pets

Timestamps: 30:28–35:39

• GLP-1 Pills Go Mainstream:

  • Blockbuster weight-loss drugs (GLP-1 agonists) spread from humans to pets as new pill forms arrive; global BMI plummets, type-2 diabetes recedes, habits change.
  • “By 2026, the company launches a new GLP1 treatment in pill form. Now, that seems like it's going to come.” – M (31:15)

• Mass Market Life Change:

  • Fast food, restaurant, and retail sectors transform as demand falls, menus shrink, and new social mores emerge.
  • “It has vast retail, certainly retail consequences, potentially lifestyle consequences and how people spend their time as well.” – J (33:57)
  • “You know this would actually make a Labrador into a perfect dog. Right. Because Labradors...they're super irritating. The way they're always hungry, you could take that away.” – M (34:45)

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8. The Swifty Put: Taylor Swift, Marriage, and a Baby Boom

Timestamps: 35:39–40:14

• Contrarian Trend:

  • Taylor Swift and NFL star Travis Kelce get married and have a baby, launching a marriage and birthrate surge (“the Swifty Put”):
    • Social media stocks fall.
    • Housing, DIY, and baby goods surge.
    • IMF & World Bank revise global GDP up as demographers rethink population decline.
  • “If there is to be any big rebound in marriage and in having babies is that the middle 50% of the income spectrum needs to have a lower cost of living, especially around child rearing. However that is constructed not from social influences.” – J (38:22)

• Physical vs Digital:

  • Gen Z and Alpha rediscover “grandma hobbies,” crafts, vinyl records; digital fatigue meets the looming threat of Q-Day.
  • “People are engaging in hobbies, what they call grandma hobbies. Everything from knitting to crocheting…wanting to collect vinyl records...” – J (39:40)

• Highlight:

  • “You heard it here first. Less screen time, more sex. Right John?” – M (38:42)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Quantum Threat: “It’s maybe not so much the fact that it can do it, but the fact that it is out there…The sort of fear and panic reaction that could be triggered by that.” – J (03:29)
• Bitcoin Security’s Achilles Heel: “And once that's gone, there's kind of nothing left.” – M (04:24)
• Space Speculation: “Elon Musk colonizes Mars, claims it as a sovereign country with zero income, property or other taxes.” – M (11:54)
• AI Janitors: “Don’t discount human ingenuity...we need to have somebody that’s managing this AI, at least so far for quite some time yet.” – J (21:53)
• The Swifty Put: “If they have anyone who has a teenage daughter would look at this and go ‘uh huh. Well that is definitely going to happen.’” – M (39:34)
• Final Note: “Less screen time, more sex. Right John?” – M (38:42)

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Time-Stamped Highlights (Selection)

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------|-------------| | Q-Day, Quantum Panic | 01:23–08:49 | | SpaceX, Starship, Space Bubbles | 08:52–15:42 | | Space Junk, Space Conflict | 15:42–18:04 | | Dumb AI Triggers Cleanup | 18:16–21:53 | | Dollar’s Gold Rival | 22:32–27:05 | | Predicting a Normal US Election | 27:05–30:21 | | Obesity Drugs Transform Society | 30:28–35:39 | | The Swifty Put — Marriage/Baby Boom | 35:39–40:14 |

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Tone & Style

• Lively, witty, and skeptical with speculative optimism.
• Merryn’s humor and sharp questions balance John’s macro-level seriousness and appetite for science fiction meets market reality.
• Plenty of playful banter about outlandish futures—anchored by solid economic intuition.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode is simultaneously a warning and a wild ride through what the next year might bring. While the “outlandish” events are far from certain, Saxo Bank’s predictions serve as a lens to examine our most critical systemic vulnerabilities, the pace of technological change, the stability of global finance, and the social undercurrents reshaping the world. Even if none come to pass, investors — and listeners — are much better prepared for the Black Swans ahead.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio. Welcome to Merrin Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I am Meron Somerset Webb. This week I am speaking with John Hardy, global head of macro strategy at Saxo, to discuss their annual list of long shot financial events that would completely shake up the markets. Every year Saxo publish a list of outrageous predictions, outlandish things that might or might not happen in the year to come, but which if they do do happen, will have massive ramifications. So past predictions have included a large natural disaster, bankrupting an insurance company. Outrageous? Very possible Nvidia ballooning to twice the size of Apple, while things which vary in their likelihood but make for great topics of conversation. John was with us last year. You will probably remember him, he's returning this year and he joins me in the London studio. John, welcome to maritalks Money.

[C]

Well, thanks for having me.

[B]

Can I say welcome back to maritalks Money?

[C]

Yes, indeed.

[B]

Now listen, you've got a pretty varied group of things this year. We go from the earth to space and all over the place. But actually my favorite one, my favorite one. And regular listeners will figure out why in a minute. My favorite one is actually your first one, Quantum Leap. Q Day Arrives Early. Crashing Crypto, there's the clue. And Destabilizing World Finance. Now that sounds complicated. So we better start by having you, and I really hope you can do this, describing what you mean by Q Day. What is Q Day for people who have no interest whatsoever in quantum physics?

[C]

Well, first of all, I'll be the last to sit here and describe how quantum computing works, because you quickly discover that you have a very hard time wrapping your head around it. It is a very.

[B]

That's why I asked you to do this, by the way, rather than doing it myself.

[C]

I won't go very far with that. But I will say Q Day is simply the idea. It's the day where the quantum computing can essentially crack into our digital encryption infrastructure.

[B]

It's a matter of speed, right?

[C]

It matters, but also accuracy. And that's the whole issue behind quantum computing. While it's not being implemented in the real world because it has these error, these errors that are created and have to be somehow this error Part of the quantum technology is the thing you have to apparently have millions of these qubits or whatever to come up with a result you can trust. Therefore, you can't get to the accuracy needed for something like Q date to happen so far. But it is, it is a recognized risk that it could happen one day, because the speed with which a theoretical quantum computer can calculate things is on a level of so many multiples of our current digital technologies.

[B]

Okay, so this happens, and then basically every single password, every single piece of security encryption everywhere is effectively useless overnight.

[C]

Could be. Of course, of course, you would have to, I guess, aim, if that's the word, aim, your quantum computer that is somehow miraculously so accurately at every single password. I think actually the more likely.

[B]

And they are unlikely to target me directly. Sure, first direct account may still be okay.

[C]

And that's a bit of the point here in the actual outrageous prediction we make is that it's maybe not so much the fact that it can do it, but the fact that it is out there that this is possible, that this technology is possible. The sort of fear and panic reaction that could be triggered by that. So imagine classic bank runs. And a classic bank run nowadays could look like people wanting to get their crypto turned into gold or something like that, rather than relying on digital infrastructure. So more likely a sort of a fear and panic reaction to some kind of breakthrough, rather than there's some serious criminal organization that's actually aiming its resources at cracking key infrastructure.

[B]

Okay, so what you say is that markets move fast, crypto has hit hardest. Old Bitcoin address this start to look vulnerable, prompting exchanges to freeze withdrawals. As a rush for the exit turns into a stampede, Bitcoin collapses towards zero. Now, this is interesting because, I mean, it is true that one of the things that is supposed to make Bitcoin so marvelous is its security.

[C]

Oh, yes.

[B]

And once that's gone, there's kind of nothing left.

[C]

That's right.

[B]

Except for a bit of code.

[C]

Implicitly, you're relying on the existing cryptography to keep it safe.

[B]

Okay, so qday makes Bitcoin worth nothing. And we know that Q day is coming. So why isn't Bitcoin worth nothing already?

[C]

Theoretically, qday. For some that are studying quantum computing, this QA may never arrive because we can't do the error correction needed to get the accuracy. But it's just out there. If quantum computing is something, and of course there's plenty of researchers or billions being thrown at this technology, if it can realize its promise, then we have to anticipate this. And perhaps some of our infrastructure needs to be sort of. We need to front run Q day, if you will, by using, maybe using the quantum technology to secure our systems before the cracking can occur. I don't know. It's just something that's out there.

[B]

It sounds like you can't really front run it because once it arrives, it's.

[C]

A chicken and egg problem.

[B]

Yes, anyone who wants to do bad stuff with it can do it very quickly. And anyone who wants to prevent the bad stuff has to spend a part of time developing defenses.

[C]

Yeah, well, there are some I'm not really familiar with fully into the weeds on the technology, but there are already some sort of crypto keys that they're trying to develop with quantum technology. But I agree it could look like a chicken and eg, just imagine how disruptive it is. We're so reliant on these systems for nearly everything. Our digital infrastructure is so vast, from everything from your Google password, if you're on Google, to your Bloomberg password and Bloomberg systems to of course, oh, Bloomberg will be safe. Military intelligence, who knows what, Right. Government systems, et cetera.

[B]

Yeah, interesting. So then Bitcoin goes and then everything else starts to tremble because people lose trust in everything. And we have a bank run. Everyone tries to hoard cash. But of course, a bank run isn't what a bank run used to be, is it? Because in the old days, you could go to a bank and say, give me my million pounds, I'd like it right now. My million dollars, whatever. And nowadays, pretty much every bank has a limit on what you can withdraw. You can turn up and say, I'd like £2,000, and then go on, what do you need that for? And so I'm sure you can have a newfangled bank running quite the same way you could in the old days.

[C]

No, that's true. But we always have to remember, classically, of course, banks loan out far more than they actually have in deposits. So there could be certainly stress, financial stress on the system. Of course, you know, this is. The disaster response would be there, things would be frozen to prevent this kind of disaster from unfolding. Just like we saw in the pandemic, official, you know, response would be mobilized on a scale we've never seen, just like the pandemic mobilized a massive response. So it's just to paint a picture of this could be extremely disruptive, even from the reaction of the news item itself, rather than simply, rather than there's actual risk to your and my, you know, deposits in a Financial system or our safety of our personal information.

[B]

And of course we know what the ultimate no password required anti idiocy asset is, don't we?

[C]

What's that?

[B]

Gold.

[C]

Well, yes. I mean, if you have gold in your pocket, the alchemy is still my favorite is there was a news item that alchemy is indeed possible, but the energy input is so ridiculous.

[B]

Yes, it is possible because I wrote relatively recently something about how we hadn't managed alchemy yet. We'd managed alchemy in a few other areas, but not with gold. And I instantly got a barrage of messages telling me that it was possible. Well, it was just so energy intensive.

[C]

Exactly. You could spend about a million dollars to get an ounce of gold or whatever the number is to transfer.

[B]

Yeah, but of course, once we've figured out how to beam solar energy directly from space and energy becomes permanently abundant and free, alchemy will be possible. And the idea of gold going to $10,000 suddenly disappears because gold too will be free.

[C]

I wouldn't say it's free if you have to send up a lot of assets into space to beam that energy back and a constant replacement of solar panels. But then again, maybe I'm just a bit.

[A]

Okay, there you go.

[B]

Outrageous prediction for you. By the middle of maybe next year, we'll be beaming solar energy from space and gold will be. Gold will be free. But under your scenario here, gold goes to $10,000, right? Plus.

[C]

Well, yes. I mean, clearly, again, part of this fear response would be I have to have something I can trust the value of. And it could go to what would seem. Actually, $10,000 these days doesn't sound all that outrageous, but certainly it would go up because people want that security of a hard asset.

[B]

I suspect that if this really happened and there really was this complete lack of the system would go a lot higher than 10,000.

[C]

I would. Yeah. If it was a profound Q day event, the gold could go to inconceivable levels. I would, I would guess, I think.

[B]

Times for gold bugs. Let's stick with outer space, shall we?

[C]

Sure.

[B]

Your fifth. Fifth outrageous prediction. SpaceX announces an IPO supercharging extraterrestrial market. Is this about my predictions on solar?

[C]

Well, I mean, actually solar sats, I think is what that technology is called and it's a very interesting idea. So beaming back solar power as an X ray to some kind of receiver on the Earth. No, but it's about. This one is about the fact that if this starship system has had a very troubled start, I Must say with all of these crashes, it's a bit musk style to send things up and learn from your mistakes. But the last one was fairly successful even with a small payload. But if this starship system is realized, it allows vast capacities, vast capacities compared what was available before, maybe on the order of magnitude, which is what you need to get to the moon. It takes 10 times the energy to get to the moon as it does to simply send the same cargo into a low Earth orbit. So if you build it, they will come. Is a little bit the principle here. And it's not just SpaceX that's building it. We have Blue Origin starting to get operational with their new Glenn rocket, which is somewhere in between the Falcon 9 and this starship. And you even have this up and comer with really fantastic speed of development rocket lab which is about to launch their Falcon 9 competitor next year. So next year is very, very aggressive schedule for what we're talking about here. But it could engender the sense that if we have an order of magnitude availability of launch payloads to a bigger variety of orbits, there's all kinds of technical industrial applications that would need micro or non gravity. And even you laugh about the solar or beaming back solar energy. No, I'm not saying laugh at it. You bring it up as a humorous topic, it's a fascinating idea. But simply having solar powered industry in space and among the applications mentioned have been Google seriously looking at whether they could do data centers and spaces.

[B]

Yeah, I've read about that.

[C]

You have the availability of suddenly payloads that can be launched much lighter, you don't have to worry about the cooling systems as much. It's pretty cold in outer space. If you're shaded from the sun minus 200 and whatever it is, 70 degrees and you have of course if you can insert it in an orbit where you're exposed to the sun around the clock and there's much more intense energy, you could drive your data center from solar energy. And relative to recent growth rates, that is the limiting factor for AI data center build out. It is the availability of electricity and energy. So it's a fascinating idea to think that we could be number crunching and.

[B]

Then we could stop building these terrible transmission infrastructures all over, all over the countryside, putting up the pylons, etc. Stop complaining, it will be marvelous. The upsides are endless.

[C]

The scale of some of these systems are incredible. The Facebook one that's. They saw a picture of it superimposed on Manhattan. It's just almost alarming. But it is. It's very massive. Yeah.

[B]

Okay. And then the next stage of that is that Elon Musk colonizes Mars, claims it as a sovereign country with zero income, property or other taxes. I'm loving that he announces the intent to off planet Tesla X and SpaceX headquarters to Mars.

[C]

Don't you just think that's his style though?

[B]

Definitely.

[C]

That was just thinking. I'm thinking absolutely. I think relative to his style of doing things and his attitude towards government. Let's remember Doge, this would be very much in keeping with his style. And we all know that Musk is completely obsessed with getting to Mars. And I think some way of getting there before, even before humans can get there to do something like this is maybe not even that outrageous in terms of what he would like to do. Him actually achieving it in 2026, that's a pretty aggressive schedule. I think there's actually only one launch window, if I'm not mistaken, for getting things there because of course the planets have to be somewhat in alignment for these missions to be done in a reasonable amount of time, otherwise you're sending it across the whole orbit, etc. So yeah, I like that one. Just because you put together what's coming in the space of starship and you put together sort of Musk's style, what his dreams are related to Mars.

[B]

I mean, this is just a more ambitious version of a 30 year old leaving the UK for Dubai to pay less tax, right?

[C]

Well, yeah, but it's.

[B]

I mean, it's the same thing.

[C]

Talk about being on a grand scale though, establishing your own sovereign structure, your own sovereign nation on a different planet. It's just taking Dubai one step further, I would say. Yeah.

[B]

And then the last bit of this prediction, which is interesting, is about selling space on the moon. So mapping the lunar surface, dividing it up into blocks and auctioning it off to the highest bidder. So you've got lunar plots of mineral rights down to 1 square meter and you get a wild NFT like bidding craze that soars, then crashes. People start buying real estate on the moon and then they realize they're paying more for that than they are for a nice house in Wiltshire and everything crashes. Now I like those because I mean, we've been through stages, haven't we, over the years, where startup companies will start selling little bits of the moon to people for fun so you can buy a little plot on the moon for your great uncle for Christmas or for his birthday or whatever. So this real estate market already exists. I mean, imagine the Court cases.

[C]

It's really less about the Moon focus. I think we're sort of just sort of opening our minds to what's possible with this and more about the space race in terms of the ability to produce things in space. And there are some specific technologies that really need zero and very low gravity to even be possible things like growing these crystals where you can grow in a very controlled and large fashion relative to what's available on Earth because there's no gravity.

[B]

What kind of crystals?

[C]

These are crystals for use in pharma. So that's actually the most intense research that is taking place on the International Space Station in this crystal growth, growing these crystals for pharma applications. I'm not super familiar with the extreme part of how you do this, but it's about designing drugs and how they attach to the molecules they need to attach to. And having these crystals in various forms helps you to do that. The other thing is, that's really fascinating, actually, links back to last year's outrageous prediction. And that was a bioprinting. So if we needed to bioprint a more complex and larger structure, if you're doing that on Earth, if you think about a 3D printing of something that's organic, like a part of our body, let's say a heart, in the most complex sense, it sags because it's a soft structure that would sag and Earth's gravity. But if you're in zero gravity, there's no sagging. And therefore you can. You can build these structures in a way that's totally impossible when you have a gravity sphere. And there are actually also experiments taking place even with listed companies on the International Space Station. And if you had the availability of these lower, you know, price points for launching, you could, you could create a fab and start to see this writ large for both, for pharma companies where they're actually making these crystals for, I think Keytruda, I'm forgetting who the maker is of that drug was related to the crystal growth in outer space and the bioprinting. So in addition to the data center, so there's some serious stuff here as well. Besides the lunar space, there are some astronomy things you could do on the moon as well.

[B]

But there's some real talk about mining on the moon and rare earths on the moon, et cetera, et cetera. So when you talk about this, it all sounds incredibly exciting. Lots of advances. When I hear you talking like that, I just think, oh, space war.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

There's bound to be conflict over territory. Bound to be Conflict over where your satellites are, where your FAB is, where your data center is, which part of the moon you get to mine, et cetera. There's a war coming in space, right?

[C]

Surely, I don't know if there's a war. Maybe there's certainly rivalry coming. But some of the rivalry I think this whole moon component, I imagine the sort of psychological impact back in 1957, of course, when the Soviets launched Sputnik. Imagine if you're the US today, you've always had this idea that the US is the world's greatest company. We're the pioneers the of space, we own space. And suddenly you see a Chinese moon rover, you know, zipping around on moon and they're planting their flag on the moon. I think there's a, there's a, there's a sort of a space race aspect to this, a rivalry in the best sense. More than a, more than a war, hopefully. But I think there's a lot of controversy as well in space. I mean there's the risk. There was a, an article I read talking about these Starlink satellites and the fact that they, their orbits will degrade over time and a number of them are constantly entering the atmosphere. It could be destroying our atmosphere over time or creating problems in the atmosphere with the ozone layer, I believe it was. And at some point they did some modeling of the probability that it's going to start killing 1.7 people per year. Just the number of them, the sheer number of them as their orbits degrade and pieces of them fall out of the sky. Fall out of the sky and eventually will hit people or stuff. Right. And how do you deal with that from a PR sense if you're having one of these incidents every.

[B]

Well, I think what you do is what we should do. And why don't we get started on this, John? We're going to start a company that will clean out up space junk.

[C]

Yeah. There are apparently some ways that global.

[B]

International organizations to pay us to do it.

[C]

Yeah. I've not read the details, but apparently there are ways to start cleaning space junk. But if not, and we have, I think it's called the Kessler Syndrome or something like that, this idea that the risk, if there is a massive collision out there between two objects, there could be knock on effects and then we'd be pretty much not able to launch.

[B]

Okay. So there may be a future ahead where we had to wear masks for years and years during the pandemic for reasons. There may be a future where we will have to wear helmets.

[C]

Or if this Kessler syndrome happens to preserve us.

[B]

From a minute risk.

[C]

Well, no, that's, that's going a bit far I would say.

[B]

But okay, let's stick with cleanup and go to number eight. Dumb AI triggers a trillion dollar cleanup. I mean, some people would say AI is already very, very dumb. What do we mean by this?

[C]

Well, I think it could be that if you're not careful with how AI is implemented, especially once we get to the agentic AI where AI is actually carrying out real tasks, carrying out tasks maybe creates accident, and I think you see this as well. So that you can write computer programs with AI, but if you're not really aware of how computer programs work, once the complexity develops and it starts doing something that you don't anticipate, how do you go back and figure out what's going on? It's got your data, you don't know what it's doing. You need an expertise. So suddenly you need software called a human being to go in and do the cleanup. So it's just an anticipation that there may be some over enthusiasm in parts of the AI space. There's already been a case of one AI erasing an entire database of a company that was of reasonable size. I don't have the name on top of my head. And then think about the physical AI.

[B]

It's just rogue AI misunderstanding instructions and.

[C]

Maybe not even malicious. Or it could be programmed to be malicious once it's agentic and then has been programmed to be malicious. Let's take a physical AI, a nefarious actor. Whether it's an accident or whether it's nefarious, the physical AI could get us into trouble. Look at the drone technologies that are available on the war front between Russia and Ukraine, where that war has accelerated. I'm not talking about AI necessarily here, but just accelerated drone technology itself. Probably to a degree that wouldn't have happened without that war. I don't want to paint too negative a scenario, but mass full self drive incident, whether it's Tesla or whether it's another company or some glitch hits the system, it's just to say there could be some cleanup necessary if we take these steps too quickly without understanding what the implications might be.

[B]

Okay, interesting. And this is kind of good for humans, you say this response, the response gives rise to a new profession of AI janitors or pest controllers. So elite human coders and audited tasked with tracing, utilizing and rebuilding fluid systems. I mean, I've been very grateful recently with lots of people telling me that I shouldn't Teach my children to code because it's not worth it because AI will do all the coding. And now I find, now I find that if they'd learned to code properly, they could be AI janitors.

[C]

I think the scenario is realistic and it's not so far back we go. If we wind back 10, 15 years. There have been a lot of systems and I'll actually refer to my father in this case who learned some of the first types of software programming in a code called assembler where of course your processor resources were so dear that you're assigning literally bits, ones and zeros down to the chip level. Very, very machine connection level of coding. You can hear from my programmers out there, can hear from my, from what I'm describing this, that I'm, I'm butchering it, but basically very, very, you know, very close to the actual instruction set needed for the chip. Whereas of course high, higher level program, you're dealing with some kind of language and as these systems devolve, you're still had these systems active and you probably still have some systems active out there. Suddenly these skills of these, these old fellows, extremely valuable because they understood how that stuff worked, that, that lower level instructions work. And that's actually to some degree what the, the Chinese developers did with Deep Sea. They went down, down closer to the machine and developed much more efficient code. They could do much more on, on fewer resources as well as dividing up the large language model into sort of expert expertise rather than trying to do everything all at once and came up with some much more efficient approach with, with limited resources. So you know, don't, don't discount human ingenuity is a little bit the, as a little bit the message and we need to, we need to sort of, we need to have somebody that's managing this AI, at least so far for quite some time yet.

[A]

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[B]

Let's go back to Gold, your favorite topic. It certainly is, it seems. Well, I mean you seem to be humoring me the whole way through these Predictions like you wrote them for me. Number seven. Number seven, dollar dominance challenged by Beijing. Now, as we know, the Chinese central bank has been buying and buying and buying, Right? Lots and lots of gold. And suddenly this comes to some kind of fruition.

[C]

Well, yes. I mean, the idea here is taking a stab at how global money will be shaping up in the years to come when you have what seems to be a slow divorce of U.S. and China. And China realizing it needs to have an alternative and to be able to operate at least in part and if necessary, entirely outside the dollar system, both to avoid the type of weaponization of the dollar and the financial system in the west that was seen when Russia invaded Ukraine. Right. The freezing of assets, et cetera. It's taking a stab at how China would carry that out by having something that its trading partners x dollar system could trust. If it's not willing to trust a fiat currency, perhaps it's willing to trust something that looks like a bancor that could be linked to gold. Maybe it's only the central banks that could actually hold this currency, but anytime you needed to redeem it, you could. And then China could get away with doing this because it's a surplus nation, it runs a surplus. And by having this reserve set up engine, the trust, which as we talked about before starting the podcast, it's this sense of trust that is so critical. And really the Chinese renminbi. Yes, with some hitches in the system, especially back in the 2015 reboot they did of how they were linking it to a basket rather than just to the dollar. It's been effectively a dirty peg to the US dollar and it needs to get off of that system and go its own way. So how does it do that? This question needs to be answered. This is outrageous way it could be answered, but something is coming and we've seen all fiat currencies devalue massively against gold and silver this year and last year. And this is all about, we all know it's coming with the massive debts we have in the system. And China is debt addled as well with its incredible real estate bust that is still being digested. The revaluation has to happen and it's already happening against hard assets.

[B]

Okay, so this gives us, as you put it here, something we haven't seen in a very, very long time. A currency that is actually tied to a hard asset, to something tangible rather than just to government promises, the return of something almost like a gold standard.

[C]

Well, the dollar was a gold standard as well, theoretically for quite some time. Post the Bretton woods arrangement up until it started coming under stress in the 60s but then only finally ended in the early 70s.

[B]

What does it mean for the US?

[C]

Well, it demotes.

[B]

They're going to start moving their money into this, into the golden yuan. They're going to reduce their holdings of the dollar across the board, reduce their holdings of Treasuries. The US has this massive debt problem, needs to constantly keep rolling out new issues of Treasuries. No one's going to be buying them. What happens next?

[C]

It has to do that to service the global dollar system as well. But if the global dollar system is downsized with something and we have a rival here, then of course it puts some pressure on the US dollar. It certainly sets up a challenge to the US dollar's dominance. There's this idea. Is it quote unquote replaced? No, the dollar itself will never be replaced. But there could be a rival and it could mean that the dollar has to fall a bit more than it would have fallen otherwise. If you have a credible rival 10 taking up more of the global assets than is currently where the dollar is. Essentially 88% of global assets are denominated in dollars.

[B]

This doesn't seem to me to be one of your more outrageous predictions. It seems to me to be something that is almost inevitable. And we know that China is gold reserves. We know that they're planning to use them for some kind of currency backing. It's just exactly how that unfolds. I mean you say we all know it's coming, we just don't know exactly how. But we do know we're talking about some kind of gold backed currency which will attempt to in part at least replace the dollar.

[C]

But shouldn't US Treasuries be coming under more pressure if we were really concerned about this? It feels like.

[B]

But don't you think it's one of.

[C]

Those things we're all partying on the deck and we know this impending doom, like the White Russians on was it Crimea towards the end of the Russian civil war. But it's something it has to give if this is really coming about. So it's just maybe a reminder and maybe outrageous to say that it's going to happen in this.

[B]

Maybe it's one of those things you're not really allowed to say too loudly, but everyone knows it's true.

[C]

And I remember this accusation about. And maybe I was going to switch it up on you. I remember your accusation last year that our predictions weren't outrageous enough. And you seem to be repeating That a little bit but I like the one I think is more outrageous is perhaps the one on US Politics and I don't know if you've picked that one out as something you'd like to talk about.

[B]

I'm going to go with BCC next but let's do that one.

[C]

Okay. No, no, the reason reason I'm referring back to our discussion last year is that these aren't outrageous enough. John. And I thought, and then I saw some other general comments as well. In last year's cycle it's like how do you even come up with outrageous predictions when the world has become so outrageous? And that's a great question. So there's a bit of twist of irony here on the political one saying that instead of continuing to get more crazy and partisan, actually we revert to the mean a little bit in US Politics and we have a very orderly and normal midterm elections. And it's hilarious because we did have a private run with some clients of the predictions this year and that was the single prediction that people reacted to most negatively is the least likely to happening. So I thought that's interesting. And the only time I remember clearly that the clients reacted very negatively to an idea was the year we predicted that gold would collapse after being going up 12 years straight, whatever it was back around 2011. 2012. So as an American, I'm also hoping that things continue to proceed normally within a, you know, within in terms of election integrity and things like that.

[B]

The midterms set immersion a trend towards greater unity and civility as a new consensus emerges around the importance of maintaining the integrity of US institutions and civil debate. Yeah, the US has moved beyond Trump. Republican unity fractures, US transitions beyond peak populism decline in social media strokes is the result.

[C]

Yeah. And what I'm hoping is in terms of this prediction, there's a bit of wishful thinking perhaps in this prediction as well, but it does seem there's a bit more of an awareness around how this outrage cycle works with these algorithms and how they drive you down a rabbit hole of outrage because that's the way you stay engaged. So A if there's a general awareness around it and B you're even starting to see legislation coming up in in Congress linked at this algorithm, I think it was called the Algorithm Accountability act that is being proposed. Could we our n the way we absorb and deal with these algorithms and so called social media, which really isn't social media, it's outrage doom scrolling in the worst instance could that help us to change the Debate. Could this alt media that is developing become a bit more like the legacy media in terms of just a more balanced approach and people tune into something that's more balanced rather than tuning only into that which is sort of triggers their outrage, the outrage cycle. So it was a bit of wishful thinking, but there does seem to be increasing awareness around this. There seems to be a bit more balanced voices. Legacy media has been largely discredited, but the alternative people are starting to see it for what it is, as well as everything being too partisan. Maybe we actually revert a bit to the mean, to looking for more balanced voices out there that are weighing the pluses and minuses rather than, you know, trying to just drive an outrage agenda.

[B]

If you were making an outrageous prediction for UK politics, you could say things will go quite smoothly for a while, for example.

[C]

Yeah. Or maybe, maybe the US could lead the way on this for once and then, you know, they could follow elsewhere. Good question on UK politics.

[B]

I tell you what, let's go obesity. And actually this one.

[C]

Let's go obesity.

[B]

Let's go obesity.

[C]

Hopefully not.

[B]

Not a problem in the studio, by the way. Obesity. Drugs for everyone, even for pets. Now, listen, I don't think this should be as much an outrageous prediction as an ambition for pets. For pets and for. There's some quite fat dogs around my area, I've gotta say. I've got a very skinny dog myself. He's very fussy about what he eats. Not a real dog. There are a lot of fat dogs around, a lot of very fat cats, few fat hamsters. But that's worry about people first, right? The weight loss revolution enters a surreal new phase as a leading healthcare giant expands its blockbuster GLP1 portfolio among humans and even beyond into the Animal Kingdom. By 2026, the company launches a new GLP1 treatment in pill form. Now, that seems like it's going to come.

[C]

It's already happening.

[B]

It's happening. We know that you can get that it's possible to do it in pill form and that will make it a lot easier for people, because a lot of people, they don't like to inject. Right, Exactly.

[C]

And that's part of. Plus the cost.

[B]

Yeah, plus the cost. So pills will be cheaper, easier. So pretty much everyone, VAT can now have a drug, which means that diabetes or type 2 diabetes in particular, more or less disappeared. A lot of the health conditions that come with this disappear. BMI averages across the world basically collapse down to normal levels. Everyone's got a BMI of 21, everyone's fit. No one wants to eat junk food anymore, people stop drinking and the world is maybe a much better place, maybe.

[C]

A bit more boring place too.

[B]

But I was going to say now I feel upset about the people stop drinking bit. Where's the fun? But generally speaking, this is only upside. Assuming no appalling side effects. Suddenly a bit.

[C]

Well, there are side effects. There's no drug that comes without side effects. But I think it's really fascinating to consider the usage patterns that are already evident in the injectable form. And that is of course they're very, very expensive. So people will go on them very quickly because they are very effective. For those that stay on the regime, get down to some target weight and then probably because of the cost, probably because they think, oh, I can deal with this, they go off the drug and then they balloon back up because your appetite comes back, your old patterns re established. Unless you've changed something about how you deal with those things. And so they go back on. So it's something you can cycle back on and off with. And imagine it in pill form where you could take a very, very small dose. It's just like not for the people that are having a really severe issue with obesity, which is supposedly the first round. People that are getting it besides Hollywood people apparently, but just somebody that's like they want to take the top off the five, the seven kilos or the one stone if you will, if you're UK based and just occasionally take it to just take the top off. But it means that if everybody's suddenly changing their BMI and you're changing how much you eat, restaurant menus will change how much they're offering what they're offering. Apparently it's much less pleasant to take certain or eat certain types of foods when you're on these drugs.

[B]

Really? What kind of.

[C]

I think it's fatty foods like some, they'll cycle off of them ahead of Thanksgiving or something like that because they.

[B]

Know they're gonna have people stop taking them before Thanksgiving.

[C]

Yeah, I've read some anecdotal stuff about, about that. Like they'll plan ahead for how it tastes to not be on their GLP1s. But I think it's just A, it's the pill form, B, it's a lot of competition. C, there are new ones coming up, this is probably further out that have longer half lives so you wouldn't have to take it as frequently. It's just I think it's going to become ubiquitous. I'd like to try one out And I wouldn't mind putting a stone aside from my weight. So I just think it's going to be a game changer nature and you know, whole wardrobes that need to be replaced. It has vast retail, certainly retail consequences, potentially lifestyle consequences and how people spend their time as well. Yeah.

[B]

Because you do have to exercise, don't you?

[C]

Well, you always have to exercise. Of course, if you, if you only take GLP1s and do nothing else, you'll lose muscle mass, you'll lose. It doesn't make you an athlete. It just takes away your appetite and you. And you lose weight.

[B]

Okay, so lots of influencers with their before and after photos with their sleek Labradors and then newly svelte house caps. This is another business we should get into. Right? Can we jump the gun here? Start a business doing a weight loss.

[C]

Injecting the poor cats. It's really fun to give a cat an injection. I've heard. I recall many a traumatic vet experience back in the day. No, yeah, we could, but I just imagining a future where when these become ubiquitous and there's tiny doses that are adjusted to the size of a cat, why not you toss them in the, the, you know, the pate, a little piece of pate and their, their cat food.

[B]

And you know, this would actually make a Labrador into a perfect dog. Right. Because Labradors are kind of nice. Everyone likes a Labrador. But they're super irritating. The way they're always hungry, you could take that away.

[C]

They're hungry because they're actually. It's an unfortunate part of their genetics that they don't have the gene that tells them to stop eating, specifically that breed. So I. So this isn't going to work for them scientifically. That's a great question. So I guess the next question will be, would an appetite suppressant work on a dog that doesn't have the stopper for appetite? I don't know. Labradors specifically would be an interesting test case.

[B]

This is useful information for British people. You know how fond we are of Labradors. Any listeners who know have an idea as to whether these drugs would work on Labradors, do please let us know. This is useful information for the MarineTalks Money podcast. Okay, so keep an eye on fast fashion, keep an eye on the way that food producers and restaurants react to this and definitely keep an eye on pet food producers. Right?

[C]

Yes.

[B]

Now, when do you most need a new dog? When do you most need a Labrador to join your little family? It's when you get married, right?

[C]

That's right.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So number Two, everyone's going to get married. The most contrarian thing a young person can do today. Get married, have five kids.

[C]

Yes, exactly. Everyone's going to do it.

[B]

Why are they going to do it?

[C]

No, I think the idea was here we know that one of the big events, influencer, if you want influencer events of at least the last decade is going to happen in the coming year. And that is Taylor Swift, the number one sort of pop icon of the moment. Has been for quite some time. We're getting married with Travis Kelce. And this will be an event maybe on the scale to some degree of Princess Di and Charles back in the day. I mean, this is really a truly a big event.

[B]

Yeah. They're not going on honeymoon on a very small yacht with 100 staff, are they?

[C]

Yeah, there's a little.

[B]

That's what broke that marriage up.

[C]

Well, I won't go into that, but I put a little Easter egg in there as well that they might get married as early as January because as an NFL fan, I specifically hate the Chiefs. But anyway, that would allow them to get married more quickly and maybe have a baby in the new year. And that was the part about fertility as well. No, I think it's a. It's one thing.

[B]

They're going to get married in January and have a baby. Baby in the new year.

[C]

Sure. Married January. And they have a baby in what, September, October.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

If we count our months, the end of next year.

[B]

Then when I think of the new year, I'm thinking January.

[C]

It was trying. We were trying to hurry in.

[B]

She can do a lot, but she can't do that.

[C]

We were trying to hurry in the marriage and the baby carriage in the same year. But in any case, I think the seriousness behind this is that.

[B]

Oh, she announces she became pregnant on a wedding night. An autumn baby. Really. Everyone's show notes. We have the full outrageous predictions. You'll love reading this one. They move close to family to build a private, safe environment for their child. They vow their child will not be allowed access to online entertainment or phones and tablets until the age of 10. They pull back from social media. All the rest of us were inspired by them. This is marvelous. We copy their lifestyle.

[C]

That's the idea. Because you have the number one influencer and baby. And there is a lot of. There is a lot of attention also, even in the younger generations on a. The mental health issues surrounding. And the social part of social media is no longer in existence. It's broadcast media by influencers, really. And in the worst case, it's doom scrolling where you're just looking for the next dopamine hit. So it's just about this our relationship to how we absorb social media as well as ironically a little bit that an influencer influences maybe to get off the stuff. I do think it's more likely that if there is to be any big rebound in marriage and in having babies is that the middle 50% of the income spectrum needs to have a lower cost of living, especially around child rearing. However that is constructed not from social influences. I admit that. But I think it does feel like we're seeing a value shift and I think we would probably all need to get a little bit off the screen more and a little bit more engaged in our physical realities around us and our communities to be more likely to get married and to have children.

[B]

You heard it here first. Less screen time, more sex. Right John?

[C]

Absolutely right.

[B]

What this means is that the big social media stocks they slip goodbye matter, goodbye Google. Lots of activity in housing, DIY prams, et cetera, et cetera. The IMF and the World bank revised global GDP forecasts up by 1 percentage point per year for the next five years and demographers scramble to reassess the pace of population decline upon across the advanced economies and we call the whole thing the Swifty Put.

[C]

I like the Swifty Put.

[B]

The Swifty Put is great.

[C]

Yeah and I wish it would happen but we'll have to see. I think it was also this prediction was after the midterm one was the one people rated as the least likely to happen. I don't know if it was people being allergic to thinking about Taylor Swift. Our audience was maybe skewed a little bit older and male but it was a bit interesting to see the audience.

[B]

Reaction on the if they have anyone who has a teenage daughter would look at this and go uh huh. Well that is definitely going to happen.

[C]

Yeah. Well there's also this you're seeing and I actually see this in my youngest daughter as well with people are engaging in hobbies, what they call grandma hobbies. Everything from knitting to crocheting. That's what my daughter a bit of.

[B]

Crochet around our house.

[C]

It's amazing picking up these old crafts and even wanting to and I see this at least two of my kids collecting wanting to collect vinyl records because they want some physical manifestation of the music they love rather than having it all and digital bits circulating around and.

[B]

Also because they know that Q day is coming and they're going to lose access to their Spotify account that could.

[C]

Be another reason.

[B]

Right on this happy optimistic note for the new year. I think we'll leave it there. John, thank you so much for joining us.

[C]

Thank you. It's been a pleasure.

[B]

Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talks Money. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and keep sending your questions or comments to marinmoneylumberg.net you can also follow me and John on Twitter or x. I'm marionsw and John is John underscore Stepek. Are you on Twitter, John?

[C]

It's John J. Hardy. I put the J in there because John Hardy is a very generic name. So John J. Hardy and then you can find me pretty quick.

[B]

Excellent. This episode was hosted by me, Marisamset Webb. It was produced by Sama Saadi and Moses Andam Sound designed by Blake Blake Mabels and Kelly Gary. And special thanks of course to John Hardy.