Podcast Summary: Merryn Talks Money

Episode: FTSE 100 Hits 10,000 as Defence, Commodities and Gold Lead Market Themes
Date: January 9, 2026
Host: Merryn Somerset Webb (Editor at Large, Bloomberg UK Wealth)
Guest: John Stevik (Senior Reporter, Bloomberg; Author, Money Distilled newsletter)

Episode Overview

This episode celebrates the FTSE 100's historic close above 10,000 and explores the major themes driving the UK market’s performance—defence, commodities, and precious metals. Merryn and John discuss the resilience of markets in the face of geopolitical shocks, the enduring discount in UK equities, shifting global trade dynamics, and the implications of AI for productivity and employment. The conversation remains practical and candid, emphasizing actionable insights for investors amid global uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

FTSE 100's Milestone and Market Dynamics

[01:20–03:07]

• FTSE 100 closes above 10,000 for the first time.
  • Merryn and John agree it’s a milestone worth celebrating.
  • John: “I think it will go below 10 again at some point, but I think we're basically here to stay, so that's nice. It's only taken a long time.” ([01:44])
• Performance context:
  • Last year, FTSE 100 was up ~20%, outperforming S&P 500 in local terms, yet remains undervalued versus global peers.
  • Mid (FTSE 250, +14%) and small cap UK stocks are “still at something of a discount.” ([02:24])
• UK economic outlook limits upside for more domestically exposed stocks.
  • John: “Are we going to see a rotation this year? ...they are more exposed to the domestic economy and to whatever interest rates do over here. And I think that'll probably actually be the main thing…” ([02:45])
  • Merryn: “Hard to imagine the UK economy having a particularly good year...anything exposed to the UK economy isn’t going to do particularly well.” ([03:07])

Global Themes: Defence, Commodities, and Precious Metals

[03:22–05:09]

• Defence and commodities carry over as major winners:
  • Ongoing geopolitical instability (Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, Greenland) underpins demand.
  • John: “We've kind of moved away from a just-in-time world to a just-in-case world...that does imply we’re going to need almost like extra stocks of commodities.” ([04:32])
• Building strategic reserves:
  • Nations want their own stockpiles of “every commodity they might need.” ([05:09])
  • These shifts continue despite regular market resilience to shocks.

Geopolitical Shocks and Market Responses

[05:09–09:46]

• Why political instability doesn’t always translate to market downturns:
  • John: “Anytime you look back at geopolitical shocks...they don't generally have a lasting impact on the markets...unless property rights are being threatened, they're remarkably impervious to events, basically.” ([05:48])
  • Merryn: true, unless “a significant change in energy prices” occurs (e.g., 1970s oil shocks). ([06:42])
• Strategic control, not immediate price:
  • The US wants leverage over oil flows from sources like Venezuela, driven by broader goals (Russia, China).
  • Greenland’s importance includes resource potential, strategic space access, and undersea cables (“key bits of the global economy now…economic weapons”). ([08:20])
• Monetary policy trumps geopolitics—Fed’s rate decisions remain the macro swing factor.

Shifting Investor Focus and Sector Rotations

[09:46–14:10]

• Possible beginning of a “stealth bear market” in US tech?
  • Merryn: “A fun little piece came out…all the different investment trusts…that have outperformed Nvidia over the last year...they're all emerging markets, China, Latin America, in particular the trust involved in gold silver mining.” ([09:46])
  • “If you ask people about last year, they would still be under the impression the Mega 7 were the outperformers. And that simply isn't true.” ([09:55])
• AI’s market impact and productivity:
  • John: “One of the things to watch this year will be do we actually start seeing AI entering the mainstream in a more useful way...” ([11:10])
  • Merryn highlights AI’s practical impact in sectors like customer service (ex: Interactive Investor), noting US market valuations would look more reasonable if earnings rise from productivity gains.
  • John remains skeptical: “I'm still struggling to get AI to do anything useful for me...” ([11:57])

Employment, the Economy, and Uncertainty

[13:14–16:09]

• Productivity revolution vs. job market risk:
  • Merryn stays optimistic (“Doing my best, John. Early part of the year, we go optimistic...”), but John questions employment stability should AI adoption accelerate. ([13:14])
• Market valuation murkiness:
  • No obvious bargains at current levels.
  • John: “Nothing to me that's jumping up and down screaming buy me…” ([14:56])
• Some markets (Japan, UK, parts of Europe) seen as reasonable value, but no “dead certs” as at start of 2025.

Commodities: Crowd Turns Bullish

[16:09–18:07]

• Merryn: “I still feel strongly about commodities this year. I still think this is going to be a very good year for commodities. But what really bothers me is that there's no consensus...now everybody thinks we're moving into a new commodity cycle of some kind...This is not new news anymore. That makes me nervous.” ([16:58])
• John notes: Gold, silver, copper, nickel, aluminum—all have seen big gains recently.
• Contrarian play?
  • Merryn: “Tell you what, John, you know what had a terrible year last year and still looks a bit droopy? Bitcoin.” ([17:42])
  • “Maybe this is the year to go contrarian on bitcoin.” ([17:55])

Investor Sentiment, Politics, and Looking Ahead

[18:07–21:03]

• Classic Warren Buffett/Charlie Munger reference about refusing to own Bitcoin, even if free ([18:07–18:30])
• Uncertainty over outcomes:
  • Global politics likely to be “more interesting than markets” in 2026 unless a true economic feed-through occurs. ([18:50])
  • John muses that a geopolitical thaw might paradoxically hurt markets, especially commodities: “If all those things happen [Ukraine, Venezuela, Iran, China improve], my bottom dollar markets fall, commodity stocks will fall, miners will fall, gold prices will fall...” ([20:06])
• “Good news is bad news” remains a market mantra.
  • Merryn: “Remember the days when...bad news was good news because every time anything bad happens, interest rates would be slashed again and again... We used to actively wait for bad news so that equities would go up.” ([20:27])
  • But now: “The news keeps coming out as being basically fine.” ([21:03])
  • Final note: “Everything usually is fine.” ([21:03])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On market resilience:
  • John: “Unless property rights are being threatened, [markets are] remarkably impervious to events, basically.” ([05:48])
• On commodities cycle consensus:
  • Merryn: “What really bothers me is that there's no consensus. Last year when you and I talked about commodities a lot, we were bit out there. Now everybody thinks we're moving into a new commodity cycle of some kind...This is not new news anymore. That makes me nervous.” ([16:58])
• On tech and AI’s future:
  • John: “One of the things to watch this year will be do we actually start seeing AI entering the mainstream in a more useful way, where people are actually like normal people are starting to use it in their actual workflows as opposed to for play stuff. And I can see that happening.” ([11:10])
• On contrarian investing:
  • Merryn: “This is the year to go contrarian on bitcoin.” ([17:55])
• On investor psychology:
  • Merryn: “Good news is bad news. Bad news is good news...” ([20:27])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• FTSE 100 surges above 10,000 and market value context: [01:20–03:07]
• Defence, commodities, supply chain shift: [03:22–05:09]
• Geopolitical shocks vs. market reactions: [05:09–09:46]
• Sector rotation and AI’s role: [09:46–14:10]
• Market value and bargains (or lack thereof): [13:14–16:09]
• Commodities consensus and bitcoin contrarianism: [16:09–18:07]
• Politics, good news/bad news, looking ahead: [18:07–21:03]

Tone and Style

The conversation is relaxed yet analytical, often wry and skeptical, with Merryn gently teasing John and both offering straightforward, jargon-light explanations. They balance caution with cautious optimism, providing measured takes rather than hyping trends, and show a readiness to re-examine their own (and the market’s) consensus.

Summary by Podcast Summarizer AI – January 2026