FTSE 100 Hits 10,000 as Defence, Commodities and Gold Lead Market Themes

Summary

Podcast Summary: Merryn Talks Money

Episode: FTSE 100 Hits 10,000 as Defence, Commodities and Gold Lead Market Themes
Date: January 9, 2026
Host: Merryn Somerset Webb (Editor at Large, Bloomberg UK Wealth)
Guest: John Stevik (Senior Reporter, Bloomberg; Author, Money Distilled newsletter)

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Episode Overview

This episode celebrates the FTSE 100's historic close above 10,000 and explores the major themes driving the UK market’s performance—defence, commodities, and precious metals. Merryn and John discuss the resilience of markets in the face of geopolitical shocks, the enduring discount in UK equities, shifting global trade dynamics, and the implications of AI for productivity and employment. The conversation remains practical and candid, emphasizing actionable insights for investors amid global uncertainty.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

FTSE 100's Milestone and Market Dynamics

[01:20–03:07]

• FTSE 100 closes above 10,000 for the first time.
  • Merryn and John agree it’s a milestone worth celebrating.
  • John: “I think it will go below 10 again at some point, but I think we're basically here to stay, so that's nice. It's only taken a long time.” ([01:44])
• Performance context:
  • Last year, FTSE 100 was up ~20%, outperforming S&P 500 in local terms, yet remains undervalued versus global peers.
  • Mid (FTSE 250, +14%) and small cap UK stocks are “still at something of a discount.” ([02:24])
• UK economic outlook limits upside for more domestically exposed stocks.
  • John: “Are we going to see a rotation this year? ...they are more exposed to the domestic economy and to whatever interest rates do over here. And I think that'll probably actually be the main thing…” ([02:45])
  • Merryn: “Hard to imagine the UK economy having a particularly good year...anything exposed to the UK economy isn’t going to do particularly well.” ([03:07])

Global Themes: Defence, Commodities, and Precious Metals

[03:22–05:09]

• Defence and commodities carry over as major winners:
  • Ongoing geopolitical instability (Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, Greenland) underpins demand.
  • John: “We've kind of moved away from a just-in-time world to a just-in-case world...that does imply we’re going to need almost like extra stocks of commodities.” ([04:32])
• Building strategic reserves:
  • Nations want their own stockpiles of “every commodity they might need.” ([05:09])
  • These shifts continue despite regular market resilience to shocks.

Geopolitical Shocks and Market Responses

[05:09–09:46]

• Why political instability doesn’t always translate to market downturns:
  • John: “Anytime you look back at geopolitical shocks...they don't generally have a lasting impact on the markets...unless property rights are being threatened, they're remarkably impervious to events, basically.” ([05:48])
  • Merryn: true, unless “a significant change in energy prices” occurs (e.g., 1970s oil shocks). ([06:42])
• Strategic control, not immediate price:
  • The US wants leverage over oil flows from sources like Venezuela, driven by broader goals (Russia, China).
  • Greenland’s importance includes resource potential, strategic space access, and undersea cables (“key bits of the global economy now…economic weapons”). ([08:20])
• Monetary policy trumps geopolitics—Fed’s rate decisions remain the macro swing factor.

Shifting Investor Focus and Sector Rotations

[09:46–14:10]

• Possible beginning of a “stealth bear market” in US tech?
  • Merryn: “A fun little piece came out…all the different investment trusts…that have outperformed Nvidia over the last year...they're all emerging markets, China, Latin America, in particular the trust involved in gold silver mining.” ([09:46])
  • “If you ask people about last year, they would still be under the impression the Mega 7 were the outperformers. And that simply isn't true.” ([09:55])
• AI’s market impact and productivity:
  • John: “One of the things to watch this year will be do we actually start seeing AI entering the mainstream in a more useful way...” ([11:10])
  • Merryn highlights AI’s practical impact in sectors like customer service (ex: Interactive Investor), noting US market valuations would look more reasonable if earnings rise from productivity gains.
  • John remains skeptical: “I'm still struggling to get AI to do anything useful for me...” ([11:57])

Employment, the Economy, and Uncertainty

[13:14–16:09]

• Productivity revolution vs. job market risk:
  • Merryn stays optimistic (“Doing my best, John. Early part of the year, we go optimistic...”), but John questions employment stability should AI adoption accelerate. ([13:14])
• Market valuation murkiness:
  • No obvious bargains at current levels.
  • John: “Nothing to me that's jumping up and down screaming buy me…” ([14:56])
• Some markets (Japan, UK, parts of Europe) seen as reasonable value, but no “dead certs” as at start of 2025.

Commodities: Crowd Turns Bullish

[16:09–18:07]

• Merryn: “I still feel strongly about commodities this year. I still think this is going to be a very good year for commodities. But what really bothers me is that there's no consensus...now everybody thinks we're moving into a new commodity cycle of some kind...This is not new news anymore. That makes me nervous.” ([16:58])
• John notes: Gold, silver, copper, nickel, aluminum—all have seen big gains recently.
• Contrarian play?
  • Merryn: “Tell you what, John, you know what had a terrible year last year and still looks a bit droopy? Bitcoin.” ([17:42])
  • “Maybe this is the year to go contrarian on bitcoin.” ([17:55])

Investor Sentiment, Politics, and Looking Ahead

[18:07–21:03]

• Classic Warren Buffett/Charlie Munger reference about refusing to own Bitcoin, even if free ([18:07–18:30])
• Uncertainty over outcomes:
  • Global politics likely to be “more interesting than markets” in 2026 unless a true economic feed-through occurs. ([18:50])
  • John muses that a geopolitical thaw might paradoxically hurt markets, especially commodities: “If all those things happen [Ukraine, Venezuela, Iran, China improve], my bottom dollar markets fall, commodity stocks will fall, miners will fall, gold prices will fall...” ([20:06])
• “Good news is bad news” remains a market mantra.
  • Merryn: “Remember the days when...bad news was good news because every time anything bad happens, interest rates would be slashed again and again... We used to actively wait for bad news so that equities would go up.” ([20:27])
  • But now: “The news keeps coming out as being basically fine.” ([21:03])
  • Final note: “Everything usually is fine.” ([21:03])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On market resilience:
  • John: “Unless property rights are being threatened, [markets are] remarkably impervious to events, basically.” ([05:48])
• On commodities cycle consensus:
  • Merryn: “What really bothers me is that there's no consensus. Last year when you and I talked about commodities a lot, we were bit out there. Now everybody thinks we're moving into a new commodity cycle of some kind...This is not new news anymore. That makes me nervous.” ([16:58])
• On tech and AI’s future:
  • John: “One of the things to watch this year will be do we actually start seeing AI entering the mainstream in a more useful way, where people are actually like normal people are starting to use it in their actual workflows as opposed to for play stuff. And I can see that happening.” ([11:10])
• On contrarian investing:
  • Merryn: “This is the year to go contrarian on bitcoin.” ([17:55])
• On investor psychology:
  • Merryn: “Good news is bad news. Bad news is good news...” ([20:27])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• FTSE 100 surges above 10,000 and market value context: [01:20–03:07]
• Defence, commodities, supply chain shift: [03:22–05:09]
• Geopolitical shocks vs. market reactions: [05:09–09:46]
• Sector rotation and AI’s role: [09:46–14:10]
• Market value and bargains (or lack thereof): [13:14–16:09]
• Commodities consensus and bitcoin contrarianism: [16:09–18:07]
• Politics, good news/bad news, looking ahead: [18:07–21:03]

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Tone and Style

The conversation is relaxed yet analytical, often wry and skeptical, with Merryn gently teasing John and both offering straightforward, jargon-light explanations. They balance caution with cautious optimism, providing measured takes rather than hyping trends, and show a readiness to re-examine their own (and the market’s) consensus.

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Summary by Podcast Summarizer AI – January 2026

Transcript

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[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News Money is personal and when markets move and headlines hit, what really matters is understanding what it means for you. What On Marant Talks Money, we cut through the noise to make sense of investing, inflation and the forces shaping your financial future. With a Bloomberg subscription you can go further, including ad free episodes of this podcast and access to my Marin Talks Money Newsletter. Get this + unlimited access to Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg app, including exclusive stories, premium market tools, Bloomberg TV and podcasts. Subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer foreign. Welcome to the maritalks Money Market Wrap where we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week and what's driving them. I'm Merrin Sumpset Webb, Editor at Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth.

[John Stevik]

And I'm John Stevik, senior Reporter at Bloomberg and author of the Money Distilled newsletter.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Afternoon John.

[John Stevik]

Afternoon man.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Now listen, we're just going to go straight into this because you must be so excited. Fuzzy 100 has finally gone through 10,000 and we talked about this earlier in the week where you said that you were going to count it as going through 10,000 until it had closed at 10,000. Now we've had a close at 10,000 and it's staying above it or appears to be hanging on just above it. Going to stay there, do you think?

[John Stevik]

Honestly, I think it will go below 10 again at some point, but I think we're basically here to stay, so that's nice. It's only taken a long time.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

No, it hasn't taken that long. It wasn't that long ago that we were celebrating 7,000 on this podcast was.

[John Stevik]

That 7,000 people celebrating celebrated 7,000 at some point.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

It really wasn't that long ago. I most don't forget that. Yeah, last year the UK market or the FTSE 100 at least performed astonishingly well. Not quite as good as Europe, but really very well indeed.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, it was decent. It was like 20 odd percent which was better than the S&P 500 even in local currency terms.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yes. And it's still not expensive. It's still at a relative discount to much of the rest of the world. And that's before we even start on small and mid cap stocks which really are still at something of a discount.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. I mean, it's interesting because I looked at the 250 and it did about 14% last year. And the thing is, in a normal year that had been actually very good.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Amazing.

[John Stevik]

It's just kind of slack compared to virtually everything else. And you just got to wonder, are we going to see a rotation this year? Is everyone going to start buying in? But then they are more exposed to the domestic economy and to whatever interest rates do over here. And I think that'll probably actually be the main thing that makes the difference.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Well, I mean, it is hard to imagine the UK economy having a particularly good year, isn't it? And so anything exposed to the UK economy isn't going to do particularly well. But anything that is exposed, for example, to a sharp fall in interest rates might. If we see that.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, so maybe, I don't know, house builders or something like that. We'll see what happens. But I think the other thing with FTSE 100 is that it hit suddenly all of the big themes from last year. And a lot of those big themes look as if they're going to carry on this year.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Defense, commodities, precious metals.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. And I think those, I mean the year obviously started with Donald Trump getting ready, President Maduro from Venezuela. And I think that's one of the big signifiers that all of these things should continue to do well. Because I don't know about you, but when you look at the reaction, certainly in the wider press and I guess in many other countries in the world, it's as if this is the first time that any doubt has been cast over the international rules based order. And everyone's just suddenly waking up to the fact that, well, actually we don't live in that world anymore, if we ever did. And so defense stocks have really had a good start to the year even though they had such a spectacular year last year. And I think the commodities as everyone's realizing that we're, you know, we're building our own supply chains and we're having, we're moving away from, I mean, I talked about it, we've kind of moved away from a just in time world to a just in case world where you need to make sure that you've got the things that you need because you cannot rely on the global market to simply provide anymore. And that kind of does imply that we're going to need almost like extra stocks of commodities than we would need if we were still in a kind of very open free trade and globalized world.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah, because everyone wants to have their own, just in case stockpiles of every commodity they might need. But it's interesting, though, isn't it, that. I mean, you've written on that, and I think we'll talk about that a lot more over the next few weeks. But one of the things that I think surprised a lot of people is that you have this fairly extraordinary event in Venezuela. You have all the grandstanding over Greenland, you have a lot of instability, for example, in Iran, Ukraine is still not resolved, etc. There is a lot going on, but yet there doesn't seem to be a negative market reaction ever to these geopolitical shocks. And you would kind of expect one.

[John Stevik]

I do think that's interesting. But one of the things is, anytime you look back at geopolitical shocks that have happened in the past, they do generally have. They don't generally have a lasting impact on the markets. And that's everything from big terrorist attacks, Kennedy's assassination, even the world wars. I mean, the world wars obviously had a massive impact, and particularly on, obviously, certain stock markets that were just completely wiped out. But if you look at what was happening during the Second World War, US Stocks, et cetera, British markets, as soon as the turning point for the war came, then you started seeing things pick up again. And the markets are. Unless property rights are being threatened, they're remarkably impervious to events, basically.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah. Unless, I guess, it marks a significant change in energy prices. So I guess if we go back to the 1970s, those two big oil shocks, that was different. That was different because then you get an immediate market reaction because it feeds through to. To economies very fast, which feeds through to markets very fast. But something like, for example, Venezuela has no immediate economic or market impact. And we talk about this on the podcast we've got coming up on Monday, which I strongly recommend everyone listens to. We talk about Venezuela and oil and whether it makes any difference. Now, of course, the events in Venezuela might make a difference to how you view things politically and might, as you say, make a difference to the way in which people think about commodities, but it doesn't actually make any difference to any prices in the short or medium term. Makes no difference, for example, to the oil price.

[John Stevik]

Well, yeah, and I think, obviously it's always hard to theorize about these things, about having all the facts, but one of the theories that's quite compelling to me is the idea that basically the US has now decided that it wants to have a strategic chokehold on the sources of oil at this point, because Venezuela has obviously been sending oil to Russia and to China. So the US wants to be able to put its hand on that particular brake and pull it for a bit of leverage. A lot of the stuff about Greenland, as Pippa Malmgren has come on and talked about quite a lot in this podcast, it's partly about its location.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

She has, and she's pointed out something. Yes, you point out stuff that other people haven't really talked about. And people are talking about the earth metals that we believe are under Greenland and the oil and gas and maybe under there, et cetera. I mean, there's probably still a lot to find there. But she talks about it in terms of space. Right. You want to be in that area if you want to have easy access to space.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. And also all the Internet cables are kicking around in that sort of area as well, as far as I'm aware. And so it's almost like having the ability to control the key bits of the global economy that are now going to be used as, I guess, economic weapons, potentially. I suppose it's the equivalent of the streets near Iran where all the oil goes through, but in various other parts of the world as well. Again, none of that's really directly market sensitive. Obviously it has a big effect over the longer term. But how do you translate that into market price immediately? There isn't really an impact in the meantime. That means that stuff like what's going to happen with the Federal Reserve's interest rate still matters more as far as markets are concerned. On the macro side of things, I still think you need to know about it. This is why people are buying defense stocks, for example, because that is a way to play a more paranoid world where everyone's having to rebuild their defenses.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Again, does it all give you that vague feeling that a stealth bear market or relative bear market might be beginning in US Tech? People gradually shift away from being obsessed to that to looking at a wider picture and moving out. Fun little piece came out from AJ Bell earlier in the day, pointing out all the different investment trusts listed in the UK that have outperformed Nvidia over the last year. They're all emerging markets, China, Latin America, and in particular the trust involved in gold silver mining. And I think if you ask people about last year, they would still be under the impression that the Mega 7 were the outperformers of the year, even though The S&P 500 wasn't one of the big outperformers of the year. And that simply isn't true. Yeah.

[John Stevik]

And I mean, I think that is interesting because we keep talking about the AI bubble still and actually, I guess when you look at it as kind of one of the less bubbly assets.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Last year, still very high valuations, but not gone, not performed in the same way. Not to say for a second that, for example, Nvidia didn't perform well last year. It was up 25, 20% or something like that, but Latin American index was up 43%.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, I think, yeah, it's. I mean, a relative bear market. Yeah. I think one of the things to watch this year will be do we actually start seeing AI and entering the mainstream in a more useful way, where people are actually like normal people are starting to use it in their actual workflows as opposed to for play stuff. And I can see that happening and at the same time I can also see the costs involved becoming more apparent and quite possibly the mic 7 continuing. Or maybe you get to see winners and losers in that area in a way that we maybe haven't and maybe.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Conceivably you start to see the productivity revolution.

[John Stevik]

I'm still struggling to get AI to do anything useful for me, but I'm not useless with tech. But also, I'm hardly an early adopter, so that's probably just me.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

I know, but I thought I'd bring you back to the summer, John. Last summer when we did that, we recorded our shows in Edinburgh at the Fringe Live and we had Richard Wilson from Interactive Investor on and he explained about the. You know, it might sound a bit prosaic, but it's kind of not the transformative effect that has had on the productivity of his customer services team. And while you and I might find it difficult to get AI to write our columns. Not long now. Not long now, John. We won't have to work much longer quite soon. I'm quite sure AI will do it for us, but we're struggling with that for now. But that doesn't mean that other professions aren't finding it to be transformative in certain areas of their stuff. So, you know, and if that does happen, then you see, you know, earnings in the US, earnings here rising, for example, then the forward PE of the S&P 500, which currently looks really very, very high over 20, 20, 21, 22 ish at the moment. If you start to see that to come down, then, you know, bit of a game changer.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, that's true. It's definitely the optimistic outlook. Well, I mean, it's optimistic.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Doing my best, John. Doing my best. Early part of the year, we go optimistic at the early bit and only give in to pessimism towards the end.

[John Stevik]

There is the unemployment element though, because, I mean, I guess that was the other thing that Richard was bringing up. It's like, oh, what's the impact? And like, I must have been Breton feels as if it is on a kind of wobbly moment from that point of view.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

I'm not sure you can blame AI for that one.

[John Stevik]

No, no, we can. But if you, if you see it as being a. A tipping point for an already kind of flattening employment market, then that could be quite bad for the economy overall.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah.

[John Stevik]

But I guess I think this is one. I think we have to wait and see because I don't, I don't know about you, but I don't have high conviction in which way the. If we're going to get a tip towards recession or if things are stronger than they actually look.

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[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

What do you have conviction in John this year? Right now?

[John Stevik]

See, this is it. I don't know. It's as. I mean, I remember this actually. We. Well, like. And I'm not making a comparison with 2007, 2008, but one thing I would say about 2007 is that most stuff was quite expensive and it was hard to find something that you felt confident was cheap. I'd still say, I think that kind of UK stocks are pretty decent value. I think there's scope particularly for IPOs and things to come back this year. So I guess those I would be comfortable with. I suppose it's just there's more. There's nothing to me that's jumping up and down screaming by me, apart from maybe anything is interesting.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah. I think this time, the beginning of last year, you could point to a lot of stuff that was genuinely cheap. Genuinely cheap. Must buy that. That's super cheap. Buy it and wait. In fact, you didn't have to wait very long.

[John Stevik]

No, you didn't.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Now you're at a point where a lot of Stu stuff is. It's perfectly okay value. You know, Japan is still relatively good value. The UK still is. Much of Europe still is. There are perfectly reasonably priced pockets of the US market. So it feels like it kind of could go either way.

[John Stevik]

Yeah.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

In the same way that AI and the story around that could go either way looks toppy to me, to you perhaps, but could go either way. It's just not. It hasn't got the dead set they had at the beginning of last year.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. And I actually think that's unusual because you can usually point to something that's kind of so out of favor. I mean, actually, the weird thing is actually property is the one thing that has done nothing for actually a surprising length of time. But at the same time I can't see, you know, I mean, definitely not, you know, like residential housing. Like why would you invest in that at this point? It's just way too costly in terms of taxation and admin burdens. So I don't know, possibly something in that area, but have to take a much closer look at where everything is at the moment.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

I mean, I still feel strongly about commodities this year. I still think this is going to be a very good year for commodities. But what really bothers me is that there's no consensus. Last year when you and I talked about commodities a lot, we were bit out there. Now everybody thinks we're moving into a new commodity cycle of some kind. And everybody wants gold and silver. Everybody thinks copper will keep going up, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. This is not new news anymore. That makes me nervous.

[John Stevik]

Another problem is they are already high and they've already made. I mean, certainly gold and silver have made spectacular gains. Copper, yeah, it's up about 20, 30%. So it's not quite gold and silver, but it's still a lot. Nickel's up 20, aluminium's up 25.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Although, tell you what, John, you know what had a terrible year last year and still looks a bit droopy?

[John Stevik]

Which one?

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Bitcoin.

[John Stevik]

Oh, yeah, exactly. Maybe this is the year that bitcoin comes in. Maybe this is the year.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

This is the year to go contrarian on bitcoin.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, yeah. That's your value. ETF play for the year. Warren Buffett will be piling in any day now.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah, yeah. It was Warren Buffett, wasn't he, who said at one of his meetings if you gave him all the bitcoin in the world for 20 bucks, he wouldn't take it. So I thought it was very, very unwarren Buffett because you would have thought he'd take it, sell it, bank the cash, buy something else.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, I feel. Was that one. Was that Charlie that said that?

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Was it Charlie?

[John Stevik]

One was always much more probably, Charlie. Yeah, I think so. I think one would be more circumspect.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Maybe. Maybe. Okay. Right. Anything else, John?

[John Stevik]

I don't think so.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

That probably does it. It will be wibbling on for too long.

[John Stevik]

I mean, politically, it's going to be an interesting year.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah, let's say that. All we can say from here, John, is that this year politics might be more interesting than markets. Unless suddenly the geopolitical situation has a direct economic feed through to markets.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, I think if geopolitics improved a lot because, I mean, actually that is one thing, because obviously people, there is a bit of a Rorschach test kind of going on in terms of whether you think that Trump being more upfront about the way the world really works is actually a good thing or a bad thing. And if for some reason we managed to get to the point where, you know, Venezuela is more cooperative with the US and the rest of South America is kind of more cooperative with the U.S. i mean, already a lot of countries are in that direction anyway. And then you might put enough pressure on Russia to get some sort of resolution in Ukraine that just about makes everyone equally unhappy. And China doesn't do anything with Taiwan, and maybe we do see some sort of improvement in Iran, then all of those things would be good. Those are all happy stories, basically.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Tell you what, John, if all those things happen but my bottom dollar markets fall, commodity stocks will fall, miners will fall, gold prices will fall, and there's no obvious reason under those circumstances for anything else to go up.

[John Stevik]

Well, good news is bad news.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Good news is bad news. Bad news is good news. Remember the days when all bad news was good news because every time anything bad happens, interest rates would be slashed again and again and again and again and again. We used to actively wait for bad news so that equities would go up.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. Oh, absolutely. There's still an element of that going on with the Fed at the moment because everyone's hoping that either there'll be a bad jobs report or bad GDP report so that Jerome Powell will definitely cut rates again and again. And yeah, the news keeps coming out as being basically fine.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah, everything's fine. And that's the way that we should end this, because everything usually is fine. Thanks for listening to this week's maritalks Money Debrief. If you like our show, rate review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Also, be sure to follow me and John on X or Twitter marionsw and John underscore Epic. This episode was produced by Sama Sadi. Production support and sound design by Moses Andam. Questions and comments on this show and all our shows. Always welcome our show. Email is merrimoneylumberg.net.