Merryn Talks Money

Episode: “Investment Trust Turmoil, Silver’s Surge, and Bitcoin’s Wild Ride”
Date: December 5, 2025
Host: Merryn Somerset Webb
Guest: John Stepek (Senior Reporter, Bloomberg & Author, Money Distilled Newsletter)

Episode Overview

In this lively episode, Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek dissect a turbulent week for investment trusts, the dramatic movements in the silver market, and Bitcoin’s latest bout of volatility. The discussion blends sharp market insights with a relaxed, congenial back-and-forth, highlighting the significance of active shareholder participation, the intricate dynamics behind precious metals (especially silver), and the global knock-on effects of changing monetary conditions—particularly the Yen carry trade’s relevance for crypto and broader markets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Investment Trust Turmoil: Shareholder Revolts and Failed Mergers

Timestamps: 02:10–06:25

• Collapse of the Hickel & Trigg Mega Merger:

  • The collapse, attributed largely to “pressure from shareholders” (02:37), marks a win for shareholder activism.

  • John and Merryn agree the deal was “not really a great deal for shareholders, especially not Heckel shareholders” (03:07), and its failure is seen as a positive sign for the sector.

    “Shareholders are looking at what’s best for them, analyzing these deals properly, and nothing is just going to be waved through.” — Merryn (03:19)

• The Saba Influence:

  • Saba Capital, a US activist hedge fund, is highlighted for instigating shareholder democracy, even when not all efforts succeed.

  • The failed Hickel & Trigg merger is viewed as symptomatic of sector “bloat” born in the zero interest rate era, with the fallout potentially setting up further deals or takeovers.

    “It has been a good year for investment trusts, particularly because the other issue is...too much bloat in the sector that came about, arguably during the zero interest rate era.” — John (03:30)

• Baillie Gifford US Growth & Edinburgh Worldwide Merger:

  • Saba again opposes another merger, this time between two Baillie Gifford trusts, owning a significant stake in both (about 30%).
  • The trusts’ “decent stakes in SpaceX” make them a prized asset for Saba (05:02–06:21).
  • With Saba moving to oust EWI’s board, the result seems uncertain but important to watch.

“I can’t help but think that [SpaceX] is the prize for Saba. And the difficulty, then, is: is any of this best for the other shareholders?” — John (05:02)

2. Precious Metals: Silver’s Surge, Gold’s Stability

Timestamps: 06:25–11:33

• Gold: The ‘Bastion of Stability’

  • Gold remains “firmly above 4,000,” outperforming digital assets like Bitcoin in terms of stability (06:34).

• Silver: Surpassing $50, Flying High

  • John’s ongoing fascination with silver is on show, as silver soars “through $50” to $57–58 amid market volatility (07:22).

  • Unusual technical factors are discussed, including: - New tariffs on rare earth and industrial metals - Physical silver moving out of London, with stories of silver being flown overseas as demand and logistical quirks surface (08:12–08:51).

    “At one point, it did become worth people actually flying silver over...normally gold, you get a lot of value per pound, but...chartering a flight to fly silver over, you’re not able to put that much weight on the plane. But it was worth doing it.” — John (08:15)

  • Trump’s rumored pick for the next Fed chair (Kevin Hassett) brings market expectations of easier money, adding further momentum to metals prices (09:25).

• Silver as a Monetary Metal:

  • Silver is unique among precious metals for its dual industrial and monetary roles (09:44–10:31).

  • Its “monetary salience” increases as faith in the global financial system (and especially fiat currencies) erodes.

    “Gold and silver are the only precious metals that have ever been used as money for a prolonged period...their monetary salience has gone up as people have become more concerned about the global financial system.” — John (09:44)

  • Gold’s historical lows are linked to major economic shifts—its 1990s nadir coinciding symbolically with the Euro’s launch, for example (10:31).

3. Bitcoin’s Wild Ride & Macro Headwinds

Timestamps: 11:33–15:43

• Volatility and Uncertainty:

  • Bitcoin’s recent “very, very volatile few weeks”—down 8%, back up again—leads to speculation over causes: profit-taking, potential sales by MicroStrategy, treasury actions, and far-fetched scenarios (e.g., quantum computing threats) (12:03).

  • The resurgence of the “Yen carry trade” reversal surfaces as a likely macro factor behind crypto turbulence (13:21).

• The Yen Carry Trade Explained:

  • Merryn demystifies the carry trade: “It’s like all these things. You can make it as complicated as you like...but in essence, it’s very straightforward” (14:29).

• Rising Japanese Rates = Market Stress:

  • With Japanese interest rates rising, there’s risk of a major unwinding—especially for leveraged assets like Bitcoin.
  • Albert Edwards, a recent guest, warns this could cause a “loud sucking noise in US financial assets,” affecting crypto especially (13:22).
  • John credits the Yen carry trade as a “factor in 2008,” reinforcing why listeners should “try and wrap your head around it” (14:22).

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Shareholder Democracy:

  “It is nice to see. You talk about shareholder democracy a lot…and this is one place where I think we’ve seen a great deal this year.” — John (03:30)

• Silver Obsession:

  “Everyone needs a hobby...For John, it’s watching the silver price.” — Merryn (07:16)

  “The last twice that silver’s got anywhere near $50 an ounce, it collapsed in a massive bear market shortly after…but this time around, silver’s not only gone up to 50, it’s managed to soar through it quite convincingly.” — John (07:22)

• Yen Carry Trade Simplified:

  “It’s not very complicated…in essence, it’s very straightforward. In fact, I think I just explained.” — Merryn (14:29)

• Crypto Skepticism, with Humility:

  “At this point, John, you’re sorry you don’t have silver, you’re sorry you don’t have as much gold as you like, but quite glad you haven’t got bitcoin, aren’t you?” — Merryn (14:55)
  “Yes. Like I said, it still needs to fall 95% for me to be in the money.” — John (15:01)

  “You’ve got to remember that in the last five years alone, [Bitcoin is] still up 400%. So the Bitcoin naysayers, ie us, we still look ridiculous.” — Merryn (15:10)

  “It’s all about the halving…or the harvening.” — Merryn & John, joking in crypto slang (15:40)

Important Timestamps

• 02:10: Investment trust shake-ups & the failed Hickel/Trigg merger
• 03:30: Shareholder activism & sector bloat reflections
• 05:02: Saba’s engagement with Baillie Gifford and the SpaceX angle
• 07:22: Silver soars—John’s silver obsession and market context
• 08:12: Physical silver leaving London, logistics of precious metals
• 09:25: Market expectations from a potentially dovish Fed chair
• 09:44: Silver’s dual monetary/industrial role
• 12:03: Bitcoin’s wild volatility and mainstream media speculation
• 13:21: Yen carry trade & global market linkages
• 15:10: Bitcoin’s 400% 5-year return—skeptics still left behind
• 15:40: Tongue-in-cheek crypto chat (“HODL,” “Harvening”)

Summary Table

| Segment | Topics Covered | Key Quotes & Insights | |--------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | 02:10–06:25 | Investment trust mergers, shareholder activism, Saba’s role | “Shareholders...analyzing these deals properly.” | | 06:25–11:33 | Gold stability, silver’s surge, silver market mechanics | “Everyone needs a hobby...silver price.” | | 11:33–15:43 | Bitcoin’s volatility, Yen carry trade, macrofinancial linkages | “It’s not very complicated...very straightforward.”|

This episode offers a candid, accessible look at big market stories, blending actionable insights with humor and skepticism—especially toward crypto hype. The interplay between John and Merryn makes the topics approachable, while their deep knowledge ensures substance for even seasoned investors.