John Stepek (2:37)

Yeah, I feel that we should mention this one because this is the collapse of the mega merger between Hickel and Trigg. And obviously regular podcast listeners will remember that we had Chris Clothier of Capital Gearing Asset Management on the other day basically saying why the merger was a bad idea and now it has basically fallen through due to pressure from shareholders, which would have included Christopher and his colleagues at cgam.

John Stepek (3:07)

And yeah, to be honest, I mean, I think we would both agree that this was not really a great deal for shareholders, especially not Heckles shareholders. And it's probably a good thing that it's gone, by the way, seat.

Marin Thompset Webb (3:19)

And it's interesting that shareholders are getting involved and there's lots of activity in the sector, but shareholders are looking at what's best for them, analyzing these deals properly, and nothing is just going to be waved through.

John Stepek (3:30)

Yeah, and it's nice to see, isn't it? I mean, it is nice to see. I mean, you talk about shareholder democracy specifically a lot. And the investment trust area is one place where I think we have seen a great deal of it this year, because obviously it started off with Saba, the US activist hedge fund, kind of requisitioning meetings at seven different investment trusts and then losing the vote at all of them, but then also managing to make changes that arguably, certainly in some cases, were probably for the best. So I think from that point of view, it has been a good year for investment trusts, particularly because the other issue is, I mean, the Heckle and Trigg merger is indicative of too much bloat in the sector that came about, arguably during the zero interest rate era. And although this wasn't the way to kind of go about fixing that, I think. I mean, certainly most of the brokers think that it puts that sort of sector in play, as they say. So maybe someone else will come along and bid for Trigg, or someone else will come along and possibly even bid for Heckel, depending on whether they had been thinking about it due to this merger taking place. So, no, I think it's pretty positive.

Marin Thompset Webb (4:39)

And what about the other big thing that happened this week, which is the proposed merger between Baillie Gifford US Growth and Edinburgh Worldwide Investment. So two Baillie Gifford trusts, and they proposed a merger, both being at reasonable discounts and sort of similar things going on. And Saba has shares in those as well and immediately said that they weren't mad for that.

John Stepek (5:02)

Yeah, well, this is an interesting one because this is Saba sort of coming back to the headlines now with this one. I mean, because obviously Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust was one of the trusts. They took a tilt at the start of the year. Basically they've come back. This is a kind of tricky one because Saba owns about 30%, or certainly his stakes were 30% in each of these trusts, clearly is quite keen to get hold of them. I think probably one of the most interesting things about the trust is they both hold quite decent stakes in SpaceX, which obviously Elon Musk's big satellite company. It's one of the few private companies that, you know, people probably value it more highly than, you know, it's paper nav would be because everyone's so excited about it. So I can't help but think that this is the prize for Saba. And the difficulty then as well, you know, is any of this best for the other shareholders? And obviously, I mean, it's up to the other shareholders to vote on that because SABA has now requisitioned the general meeting to oust the current board of EWI and replace it. Now, I'm sorry, I'm wondering why this will go any differently to the previous kind of vote. But then again, Sabbath owns more of AWI now than it used to and it's nearly Christmas.

Marin Thompset Webb (6:21)

Everyone's a little distracted.

John Stepek (6:23)

Yeah, that too. So we'll just need to see what happens.

Marin Thompset Webb (6:25)

This is one to keep an eye on. Definitely. Okay, now moving on to a subsector of our favorite subject.

Marin Thompset Webb (6:34)

So, the gold price has been marvelous recently. We're firmly above 4,000 again and staying there and with a little bit of volatility. But relative to digital gold, your bitcoin digital tulips, I think we'll call it now, depends which way you want to go on this. But relative to that, gold is an absolute bastion of stability and value. Right. So that's all going fine. We've talked about gold a million times in this podcast. Everyone knows what's going on there. But one thing that you've been saying for ages is that the excitement really starts when silver starts moving. And I think listeners will remember quite how excitable you got when the silver price went through $50. And it's a lot more, hasn't it?

John Stepek (7:14)

Yeah, everyone needs a hobby, you know.

Marin Thompset Webb (7:16)

Everyone needs a hobby for some bit. Tennis, archery, riding, I don't know. But for John, it's watching the silver price.

John Stepek (7:22)

Yeah, it really is. Just watching it, because I don't. Again, it's one of those things. I don't actually own any of the. So the last twice that silver's got anywhere near $50 an ounce, it collapsed in a massive bear market shortly after. So that's 1980 and 2011. But this time around, silver's not only go up to 50, it's managed to kind of soar through it quite convincingly. And I think as we speak, it's about 57. And it got up to 58 yesterday or the day before. And it mostly seems to be. I mean, the immediate move mostly seems to be down sort of, because there's been all this talk of tariffs on rare earth metals and other industrial metals, and silver sort of ended up on that list. There's also been all of this kind of movement of silver out of London, which is the main market was traded. I didn't want any other markets.

Marin Thompset Webb (8:12)

So basically physically moving out of London.

John Stepek (8:15)

Yeah, yeah, no, physically. So there's been. One of her. A couple of her colleagues were on the commodities desk and they were writing some very interesting stuff about this, where it actually at one point did become worth people actually flying silver over, because silver isn't normally like you might charter a flight to fly gold over, because obviously gold, you know, you get a lot of value per pound of gold, whereas if you're going to charter a flight to fly a load of silver ingots, you're not actually able to put that much weight on the plane. But actually it was worth doing it kind of recently.

John Stepek (8:51)

But that's all the technical stuff about silver not quite being where it needs to be. And that's all down to. Well, there is actually jewelry and industrial demand, but there's also added investment demand. So the ETFs need silver to be located in certain places. But beyond that, it's also the fact that Donald Trump has kind of dropped a very heavy hint that the next Fed chief is going to be a chap called Kevin Hassett, and the market assumption is that he's going to be much more.

John Stepek (9:25)

Keen on lower interest rates than they've currently got. So he'll be basically an easy money Fed. Because gold did bounce too. It's just gold hasn't gone quite as nutty as silver because basically the market is larger and more liquid.

Marin Thompset Webb (9:40)

So, yeah.

Marin Thompset Webb (9:42)

About silver as a. As a monetary metal.

John Stepek (9:44)

Well, definitely, yeah. I mean, I think one of the things that. I mean, the interesting thing about silver is that as well as being a very kind of small, kind of fairly tight market, is the fact that it's unlike gold, it is industrial, a lot of it is used in industry. But like gold, it actually has a monetary component which basically none of the other precious metals do. I mean, like Russia once tried to make a batch of platinum coins, but they didn't take off. Basically, gold and silver are the only precious metals that have ever been used as money for a prolonged period of time. The way I put it the other day in Money Distilled is that their monetary salience has gone up as people have become more concerned about.

John Stepek (10:31)

The current global financial system. I think one thing I always think is interesting, if you look at the absolute bottom for gold during the free floating standard that was in the late 90s, and gold hit rock bottom just about at the same time as the euro was launched. I think the euro, if you like, is the symbol of a hubristic belief in fiat currency and the ability of governments to essentially create a single currency that was bolted from all these different nation states. And gold kind of reaching its nadir at that point. I think it's just almost is very symbolic of what was going on at the time. And now we've got gold at a record high when the US dollar standard itself is in doubt because it's kind of fractured and it's no longer viewed as a politically neutral standard. You've got to be the friendlier you are with the U.S. the more the U.S. dollar system favors you and vice versa. So, yeah, so basically, I think that the monetary salience of gold and silver has gone up, and that's being reflected in the price.

Marin Thompset Webb (11:33)

Okay, interesting. That should bring us, I think, briefly, briefly on to Bitcoin. I mean, we mentioned it briefly at the beginning, but, you know, it's had a very, very volatile few weeks, right. And the beginning of this week, you know, down 8%, then back up to pretty much where it was before. And there's a long list of ideas about why it is that it might have gone up again, why it is that it went down in the first place, and, you know, gold didn't follow it.

Marin Thompset Webb (12:03)

And I've been looking through the list of things that people think might have forced bitcoin down. And, you know, it's everything for everyone is profit taking. Is it about. Is it about what used to be called microstrategy, now called strategy, and about the possibility that they might sell some bitcoin? I think it was said that they never would, or some of the other treasuries might have to sell some bitcoin suppliers more than you thought. Is it about. Oh, I don't know. And we did. We did a conversation the other day that you will hear on the podcast in a few weeks with that nice man from Saxo bank about the unexpected, unexpected things that might happen next year. And one of those was that Q day might come earlier than you think. So suddenly quantum computing takes a huge leap forward and all your passwords are completely irrelevant. There's no encryption left, et cetera. But one of the other things that everyone's talking about at the moment is the, the Yen carry trade, which you and I have talked about before, but now seems to be really beginning to kick off, or rather reversal of. So it's been going on for years. When cheap money flows out of Japan, people use that cheap money to invest or speculate. They make some money, they pay back the debt, they keep very easy trade. Right. Going on forever. But it's based on the assumption that interest rates in Japan remain very, very low, you know, close to zero. And don't forget that wasn't that long ago the interest rates in Japan were negative. So the trade relies on verging on free money.

John Stepek (13:21)

Yeah.

Marin Thompset Webb (13:22)

And of course, Japanese rates are now going up. Sharp rise in JGB yield. And there's lots of discussion about whether the bank of Japan will actually raise interest rates this much this month. So when that happens, suddenly, I mean, Albert Edwards, who we had on the podcast a few weeks ago, I know he's a perma bear, but nonetheless his a clever one. He's a clever one. The unwinding of the carry trade could cause a loud sucking noise in US financial assets and of course, particularly in those that are very heavily leveraged. And a lot of people who buy bitcoin do it with debt. It's a very heavily leveraged trade in lots of cases. So maybe that has something to do with what happened to bitcoin and maybe that was some kind of canary in the coal mine for what happened. As Japanese rate continue to go up, what might happen across the board, I mean, Albert says if you're going to learn about anything over Christmas, make absolutely sure that it's how the Yen carry trade works. Be sure you understand how that fits into the financial system because you may well need that information.

John Stepek (14:22)

Yeah, I mean, it played a role in 2008.

Marin Thompset Webb (14:25)

Absolutely.

John Stepek (14:26)

Yeah. It's definitely is one you kind of keep an eye on. Try and wrap your head around.

Marin Thompset Webb (14:29)

Well, it's not very complicated. I mean, you know, it's like, it's like all these things. You can make it as complicated as you like, but it's really, in essence, it's very straightforward. In fact, I think I just, I think I just explained.

John Stepek (14:42)

Listen to this podcast a couple of times, you'll be fine.

Marin Thompset Webb (14:45)

Yeah, this is not complicated stuff, although obviously it might feel complicated as your portfolio collapses if.

Marin Thompset Webb (14:55)

Anyway, at this point, John, you're sorry you don't have silver, you're sorry you don't have as much gold as you like, but quite glad you haven't got bitcoin, aren't you?

John Stepek (15:01)

Yes.

John Stepek (15:04)

Like I said, it still needs to fall 95% for me to be in the money, technically. But it's a start.

Marin Thompset Webb (15:10)

I mean, it is important to remember every time Bitcoin has these volatile moments, as it just did, and you go, look at that, look at that. Down 8%, down 16%, et cetera. You've got to remember that in the last five years alone, it's still up 400%. So the Bitcoin naysayers, ie us, we still look ridiculous.

John Stepek (15:29)

Oh yeah. And I mean, it's collapsed quite a few times and it has so far always come back. So I must have been so about the halving, John. It's all about the halving or the Harvening.

Marin Thompset Webb (15:40)

Sorry, the Harvening.

Marin Thompset Webb (15:43)

Yeah, that one.

John Stepek (15:44)

Buying hodl. See, we know we're down with the kids. We know our crypto.

Marin Thompset Webb (15:50)

We do.

Marin Thompset Webb (15:53)

We have to stop that. We have to.

Marin Thompset Webb (16:02)

Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talks Money Debrief. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Also, be sure to follow me and John on X or Twitter erinsw and John underscore Stepek. This episode was produced by Sama Saadi production supported by Moses andam. Questions and comments on this show and all our shows are always welcome. Our show email is merriamoneylumberg.net.

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