Markets Weekly: Gold’s Moves, Yen Intervention, and Fallout From a Weaker Dollar

Summary

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Merryn Talks Money – Markets Weekly: Gold’s Moves, Yen Intervention, and Fallout From a Weaker Dollar

Date: January 30, 2026
Host: John Stepek (standing in for Merryn Somerset Webb)
Guest: Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion columnist, European market expert)

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Episode Overview

This week's episode delivers a timely and incisive analysis of several major global market moves:

• The surprising surge in gold prices above $5,400 an ounce
• Shifts in the US dollar and the broader implications of a weaker greenback
• Central bank behavior, investor strategies, and asset allocation
• Japan’s yen intervention and the ongoing “currency wars”
• Economic concerns in major European economies, particularly France
  The conversation is dense with practical wisdom for anyone interested in markets, portfolio construction, and the macro factors driving asset performance.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Gold’s Meteoric Rise

Timestamps: 01:20–04:12

• Gold has shot past $5,400/$5,500 per ounce—well above most 2026 year-end forecasts.
• Central Bank Buying: While Chinese, Russian, and Polish central banks have been buyers, recent gains are not directly tied to heavy buying but appear more speculative.
• ETF & Retail Flows: ETFs, typically bellwethers for investor sentiment, have been net sellers; retail interest is limited.
• Speculation & Sticker Shock: The rally looks like “catch-up” from investors who missed prior gains. But Marcus expresses concern about “sticker shock” at these levels.
• Quote:

  “Calling the top is a fool's game—fool's gold even—and really I can't explain it other than the fact that lots of people seem to think it's about dollar debasement, which it isn't.”
  – Marcus Ashworth (03:00)

• Silver vs. Gold: Silver's price action is partly driven by a minor physical shortage; jewelry demand for gold has fallen as prices rise.

2. The US Dollar Debate: Debasement or Overvaluation?

Timestamps: 04:12–08:06

• Not Dollar Debasement: Both John and Marcus dismiss the idea that gold’s surge is about a weak dollar. The dollar remains historically strong.
  • Quote:

    “It's not yet. It's historically still relatively expensive. The dollar has been much, much lower than this in the last 20 odd years.”
    – John Stepek (04:12)

• Currency Hedging: The long-standing global trade—owning US stocks unhedged—may be at an inflection point as US exceptionalism narrative fades.
• Distinguishing Risks: Marcus splits “owning US assets” from “being naked long USD currency exposure”:
  • “Do you want to own the double bet, which is owners? And if you're a foreign investor, being naked long dollar outright, probably not anymore.” (05:25)
• Emerging Markets: Non-US markets are more attractive for new allocation, but US stocks and bonds remain fundamentally strong.

3. Portfolio Reconfiguration & Asset Allocation

Timestamps: 08:06–10:08

• Asset Allocators React: As charts (e.g., 200-month moving average on EUR/USD) signal a possible trend reversal, asset allocation teams are rethinking concentration in US assets and the dollar.
  • Quote:

    “If you haven't been holding gold at all, you're probably starting to feel a bit of an umpty.”
    – John Stepek (09:18)

• The 60/40 Portfolio: Gold’s strong historical numbers now make mixed-asset allocations (e.g., “60/35/5” including gold) look more defensible, but Marcus is skeptical of piling in at these highs.

4. Euro vs. Dollar: ECB Policy and European Economic Woes

Timestamps: 10:08–14:23

• Euro Strength & ECB: Every time Euro threatens to rise above 1.20–1.25 vs. the dollar, the ECB acts to suppress it—expect drama around the next ECB meeting (February 5).
  • Quote:

    “They come and hit it on the head with a hammer. I expect that's exactly what's going to happen.”
    – Marcus Ashworth (10:56)

• Rate Cuts Likely: If the Fed and Bank of England cut, Europe will likely follow suit, lest a strong Euro hurt already weak exports and economic growth.
• France's Low Inflation: Unusually low inflation in France (~1%) reflects deeper economic malaise, not just “base effects.”
  • Quote:

    “It's quite extraordinary how long it's been under 1%…there is some actual residual problems perhaps with lack of economic growth and stimulus and momentum.”
    – Marcus Ashworth (14:31)

5. Japan’s Yen, Carry Trades, & US Pressure

Timestamps: 16:16–19:55

• Japanese Economy/Inflation: Despite massive government debt, Japan’s domestic economy and inflation are stable.
• Yen Carry Trade: The real global impact of the carry trade (borrowing yen to buy other assets) is more nuanced; foreign investors, especially hedge funds, have faced losses as Japan tightens—domestic buyers remain cool to longer-duration JGBs even amid rising yields.
  • Quote:

    “They are keener to stay out of Japan and they believe that the US will be cutting interest rates. Why not own that bond market?”
    – Marcus Ashworth (17:29)

• Yen Intervention:
  • The US Treasury quietly signaled a warning to Japan about further yen weakening, triggering a temporary reversal.
  • If real intervention comes, it could dramatically move markets.
  • Quote:

    “A line in the sand's been drawn. Is that going to hold? Probably not. But at some point the crashing waves will come in.”
    – Marcus Ashworth (18:57)

• US Policy: The US doesn't want the yen (and thus the dollar) to get too strong, as it would hurt US exports. The US is keeping a close eye on Asian currency management.

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On Calling Market Tops:

  “Calling the top is a fool's game—fool's gold even.”
  – Marcus Ashworth (03:00)

• On Portfolio Allocation:

  “If you haven't been holding gold at all, you're probably starting to feel a bit of an umpty.”
  – John Stepek (09:18)

• On ECB and the Euro:

  “Every time it pokes its head above 120 and certainly gets close to 125, they come and hit it on the head with a hammer.”
  – Marcus Ashworth (10:56)

• On French Inflation:

  “It's quite extraordinary how long it's been under 1%…there is some actual residual problems perhaps with lack of economic growth and stimulus and momentum.”
  – Marcus Ashworth (14:31)

• On Yen Intervention:

  “A line in the sand's been drawn. Is that going to hold? Probably not. But at some point the crashing waves will come in.”
  – Marcus Ashworth (18:57)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:20–04:12: Gold’s rise and the real drivers behind it
• 04:12–08:06: The dollar’s decline, asset allocation rethink, US asset value
• 08:06–10:08: Charting currency moves, portfolio construction, gold’s new status
• 10:08–14:23: Euro-dollar dynamics, ECB response, French inflation issues
• 16:16–19:55: Japanese yen’s slide, intervention signals, US strategy

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Tone and Style Notes

The episode is relaxed but densely packed with pragmatic, unvarnished financial wisdom. Both speakers take a skeptical, level-headed approach to potential “fad” investment behaviors (buying gold after the run-up, chasing euro/dollar trends) and urge listeners to trust basic risk-reward logic over herd or chart-based decision-making.

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Summary

This week’s Markets Weekly offers a sharp, timely look at why gold and other precious metals have surged, why the US dollar’s so-called “debasement” is a misread, how global investors are rethinking risk, and why central banks—especially the ECB and Bank of Japan—are being forced into defensive action as currency moves threaten economic stability. For listeners seeking decision-ready insights rather than hype, this episode is rich, skeptical, and highly actionable.

Transcript

[Marcus Ashworth]

At CES.

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[Marcus Ashworth]

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[Podcast Host / Narrator]

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[Marcus Ashworth]

Ow.

[Podcast Host / Narrator]

And he pitches off. And when he pitches off, he flies right into the gun barrel. I said to the cameraman, do you have him? He said, shoot him.

[Marcus Ashworth]

I said, justin, shoot.

[Podcast Host / Narrator]

You can download this episode and others from lines and tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[John Stebbick]

Welcome to the Melton Talks Money News roundup where we talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and what's driving them. I'm John Stebbick, senior reporter of Bloomberg and author of the award winning Money Distilled newsletter. And joining me in the studio while Merlin is away is Marcus Ashworth. Marcus is a regular here. He's a Bloomberg opinion columnist with deep expertise in European markets. He's also the guy I phone whenever I want to ask anything about bonds and all round useful contributor to the show. So hello Marcus, great to have you with us again. I was thinking about what we should talk about this week. Well, actually I wasn't thinking what we should talk about this week because what we should talk about this week is pretty obvious because gold is up through 5,400, $500 an ounce as we speak this morning, which is not necessarily. I thought we would be this early in the year.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Yeah, if you think about it, everyone's target for the end of this year was basically 5,000 and we're 10% above that. And we're not even the end of January that we are at the end of January. Give that. But the point here is that, you know, where does this stop? We just had the World Council Gold Council's stats out and within that also there was a interesting view on central banks in particular, which it doesn't seem to me bar Poland. We can come back on that, that there has actually been that much central bank buying, driving gold up. This is all catch up. For the last two or three years you've seen ETF hold basically be net sellers and retail have not really not been that involved.

[John Stebbick]

Yeah. So this is private investors.

[Marcus Ashworth]

So the central bank clearly from China onwards, Russia and now it seemed Poland buying lots of gold is shifted away from them being the biggest buyers very much being catch up and it's speculation. And look at some point this is all going to go horribly wrong. Calling the top is a fool's game, fool's gold even. And really I can't explain it other than the fact that lots of people seem to think it's about dollar debasement which it isn't but we can get onto that in a minute. But silver has got a slight shortage and a definite squeeze going. But you know mining production is up quite a lot. Recycling is up a little bit as well. Funny enough, jewelry usage is down for gold as you would expect. There's people getting sticker shock on that and that's the point. When do investors get sticker shock at five and a half, six thousand, where is it they actually go? Do you know what do I want to be in at the top? Asset management. I don't think I really want to be buying it anymore here for my one Len was loving it.

[John Stebbick]

Yeah. And I mean I suppose one thing I would ask about because I agree on dollar debasement because obviously if you look at the dollar, I mean it's going down a bit this year but it's still.

[Marcus Ashworth]

You don't think it's dollar debasement?

[John Stebbick]

It's not yet. It's historically still relatively expensive. The dollar has been much, much lower than this in the last 20 odd years.

[Marcus Ashworth]

You've got to separate usage of dollar which is the strong currency policy actually of what the US administration talking about and then the actual value of it and there's note about it if you look at the S and P winning 7,000. This is not about selling of US assets or selling of the US dollar per se, it's hedging of exposure to US dollar. It's been a lovely trade for the rest of the world last two or three years. Buy US tech stocks, whatever it is and also be long dollar. Don't hedge your dollar exposure now the trade still works except you really do want to hedge your dollar exposure and that's not dollar debasement, that's just overvalued dollar and I think that's common sense.

[John Stebbick]

See I think that's a key point though, because obviously this is what was called US exceptionalism and that has ended in that it's no longer kind of comforting. As you say, you have 70% of your equity exposure in the S&P 500 and all of this, as you say, unhedged. Basically everyone has just been owning the US because there has been no other alternative. And now they've been owning it naked.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Longer currencies, you've got to separate it from owning the asset, which I still think exists. I do think the S and P has gone more to go. Look at the Fed. The Fed are actually fairly confident on inflation. They're not rushing to cut interest rates because the economy is so strong. The stock market is still so strong. It's still got the best companies in the world. It's still going to do very well. Will other countries do better? Possibly, but that's the emerging markets. Certainly there's some aspects there, but that is a conscious risk choice. The question is, do you want to own US assets? Absolutely. Great yields in Treasuries, great liquidity, great stock markets, blah, blah, blah. Do you want to own the double bet, which is owners? And if you're a foreign investor, being naked long dollar outright, probably not anymore. And that is how I think you have to separate the two things.

[John Stebbick]

Yeah, I mean, that makes a lot of sense. I mean, if you're a sterling investor, I mean, you may not have noticed it yet, but obviously the pound against the dollar has gone from 1.35 to 1.38 this week. Let's say you're not going to instantly notice that in your portfolio. If the pound does keep going up against the dollar and you haven't hedged that exposure in some way, then it's actually going to act as quite a big drag on your returns. Definitely see that as an issue. I mean, I suppose I would also say that they're probably. I would argue that the probably is an element of wanting to hedge against US political uncertainty, which I don't see as being the same as fleeing. It is more just, okay, I've been comfortable having all of my eggs in this one basket and suddenly I start to think, I said, does it make sense to have all 85%?

[Marcus Ashworth]

And since 20, since 2020, I mean, it's been a sleep trade. If you've been long, all of a sudden you've got to wake up and think, hang on a second. One, is there better alternatives elsewhere? And two, do I want quite so much exposure? Or in that way Kaiser exposed to the currency? If you're still confident holding the underlying assets, be it bonds or stocks. I think US bonds are great value. I think US stocks are probably still the place largely to be. The dollar itself, I think you have to be slightly careful getting too bearish on it because it's underlying got a lot of so much economic strength that I think it's a difficult short. Do you want to hedge some of your exposure of foreign investor? Absolutely. And you know there are alternatives, particularly in emerging markets I think which are make for the sensible investor if you're a US investor. But reality is I don't think the dollar is going up and I don't think it's going down too much. But you know, for choice I think this is a trend which we will see more dollar weakness over the course of the next few months.

[John Stebbick]

I suppose the other thing I would ask about, precious metals particularly it is all part of this reconfiguring portfolios because obviously if you look back over the last year and actually it's getting on for closer to two years now, the rest of the world has been catching up with the US I was reading something interesting from Steen Jacobsen who's an analyst over actually I can't remember, I think it's Rabobank but he was talking about how it's on this topic, the Euro, US Dollar exchange rate. And it's a charting thing and I know that charts are a little bit. People don't always think. People think charts are just like astrology. But he was pointing a bunch of lines. Yeah, bunch of lines. But he was pointing that the Euro is Now at its 200 month moving average against the dollar and if it breaks up above that. So this is end of the month stuff and this is a long term trend and he's saying that the tipping point looks like be there if the Euro manages to stay stronger against the dollar and you're turning the trend around. And that's a point at which asset allocation teams start to say okay well hang on a minute, this is. Well it's basically saying what you're saying. We're taking a risk here by being overly exposed nakedly long at the dollar. And this is something they can use almost to justify the decision to pull back on that. Because also if you haven't been holding gold at all, you probably starting to feel like a bit of an umpty and also the world warming. And also they connect the arguments for having the mirror. Yeah, well the arguments for having a 60355 portfolio start to become more mathematically convincing because not Here, not at the top. Well, no, no, but this is a.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Prominent thing with Einstein. Absolutely.

[John Stebbick]

Exactly. With gold's done so well, you plug that into the historic calculations and it looks as if the benefit has outweighed the volatility, whereas before it didn't. And it suddenly looks as if. Well actually that would be sensible portfolio construction. And I just wonder if that.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Please, why now when €Euros at 120 all of a sudden you think oh, it's about time I should shift out the dollar. Why at the top? I mean really, it's like the gold. Why would you shift your portfolios 10% to gold now? It's brain dead really. People have got to do the risk reward on this stuff and think for themselves. Common sense. Where do I really think in a year, in two years time these things will be of gold and silver having a horrible blow off top and it all going very badly wrong I think are getting exponentially higher. Nonetheless, with regards to and I just written an article about dollar euro in particular, the Europeans start to hurt above 120. They are already starting to talk about the European Central bank and if you look at a longer term chart you will see every time it pokes its head above 120 and certainly gets close to 125, they come and hit it on the head with a hammer. And I expect that's exactly what's going to happen. And we have the ECB meeting next Thursday February 5th where I expect there will be a few more noises and we will back away from this. Oh, maybe the next move in interest rates in Europe should be a hike. No, it should not. It should be either dead silence, which would be preferable. But now they have to say actual fact. We still probably have a bias to ease and maybe that'll weaken the Euro a bit. The brutal reality we know if the dollar wants to go down, the Euro has only one way to go and there's very little they can do about it. I apart from actually cut interest rates now you would argue with French with inflation well below 1% they should be but you know a lot of the Germans for some reason in their economy is completely on the floor, don't seem to want to do this. But I suspect by the end of the year if the Fed, let alone the bank of England have cut again and probably one or two, maybe even three more times, you will see a further rate cuts in Europe and I think that will be fine. But until then there's a chance that the Euro gets a little bit too strong and it starts killing their already very weak export growth and indeed economies, sadly. How do you shift AI from being a flashy feature to a trusted partner in consumers everyday lives on the ground at CES Bloomberg Media Studios? Asked Michael McDermott, EVP of Samsung.

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[John Stebbick]

Side point here because I haven't looked into it properly and maybe you haven't either. But why is French inflation as low as it is? It kind of stands out as being.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Yeah, there's some. Again, look, most of these things are energy driven and there is some basis stuff in it, but you know, there is a very bad economy there at the moment and it's, it's quite extraordinary how how long it's been under 1% and you know the risks of it Going lower. Italian inflation isn't very strong either. Again there are, there are some basis effects from previous things going through but I mean, you know, it is starting to become more of a worry in France that they're realizing this is, this isn't just one off effects from things like energy and whatever. There is some actual residual problems perhaps with lack of economic growth and stimulus and momentum in the economy. Yeah.

[John Stebbick]

And that is kind of a problem given where their debt to GDP is because at least we can talk about tax receipts going up faster than anyone expects. Purely an inflation driven basis.

[Marcus Ashworth]

But I mean if you look at the overall gross debt to GDP in the UK we're actually in one of the best, best spaces, I mean in particularly corporate and household letting setting aside where the government is. But we're relatively under 100% of GDP. It does compare more favorably to most of Europe, bar Germany, but Germany's rapidly catching the rest of us up. So yeah, I think France has, has issues particularly with household debt and to extend corporate debt as well. But the good thing, the only thing they got going for at the moment, and clearly you can see that reflecting the spread above German yields, is that the European Commission are turning a blind eye. They are getting their budget through somehow by hook or by crook and they're not creating the flak within Brussels that they otherwise may have done in this situation. So at the end of the day everyone's got to turn a bit of a blind eye to France and let it a bit like they have done in the past and continue to do with Italy and let it get try and get itself out of its own mess because domestic politics are a mess.

[John Stebbick]

Yeah. What's going on with the yen? Because that's the other thing that everyone sort of was broadly a little bit jittery about earlier.

[Marcus Ashworth]

First things first, again, if you look at the Japanese economy overall, excluding its very large government debt, which is bigger than anyone's really is, the domestic economy is doing perfectly fine. Inflation actually is relatively okay. They are. They'll be wanting inflation to come in has the rest of the world. And that's why I've been nudging up their interest rates calmly. Everyone gets scared about this thing called the yen carry trade as in, you know, people borrow in yen and buy US tech stocks and it funds the world's growth to a large degree. I think people misunderstand how that trade works. That works very much in short term tenors. You know, one month, two months, three months type stuff. It doesn't exist in 30 and 40 year JGB yields, which is a very domestic market. However, recently a lot of hedge funds have got involved in trying to get busy and I think quite a few of them being stopped out. So we're seeing a lack of buyers domestically, the pension funds, but I think you do not want to own extra duration in Japanese, even though yields are getting better and higher, we are not seeing the Japanese fund managers thinking, oh, I can now get the same yield or better even in yen, I will move my money out of dollars. They're quite the reverse. They are keener to stay out of Japan and they believe that the US will be cutting interest rates. Why not own that bond market? And that's why I think you have.

[John Stebbick]

To look at it.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Where is the prospect of lower rates and lower yields? More likely an actual fact, especially the weakening yen as up recently. So they haven't been bringing money back onshore. They're not that excited by higher yields. So what whether the yen, well, the yen had got towards 160. And clearly you've had the US treasury encouraging the bank of Japan to call up various FX dealers and say, where would you possibly be offering me to buy some yen, please? The rate check which happened last Friday. And look, it had an immediate effect because it was, was done again in US time by the US Treasury. Notice it's been served. And I would say that the yen will continue to weaken, but very, very carefully this time, because getting caught the wrong way on it is going to be extremely painful when and if, and probably more likely, when the US treasury comes in and they do a concerted intervention that will move it 10 big figures rather than five this time. So in that sense, it had got too weak, the yen. And I think it's only so much that the Japanese economy and Japanese want this, to allow this to happen. And I think we've been served. A line in the sand's been drawn. Is that going to hold? Probably not. But at some point the crashing waves will come in.

[John Stebbick]

Just for clarity, why does the US not want the yen to get weaker against the dollar?

[Marcus Ashworth]

Because it doesn't want the dollar to get stronger because it wants the US export market to have a better chance against the rest of the world. It's a little bit dumb the way they look at this, but broadly what they're trying to say is that, nice try, guys, we're seeing the Chinese do exactly the same thing. We're seeing the Kore and the Japanese the same game. Let's keep our currencies very weak against principally the dollar. But everything else and against each other, more importantly, probably actually, you can't all play the same game, get away with it. We see you.

[John Stebbick]

Yeah. Hello.

[Marcus Ashworth]

And that's why, you know, the Japanese are more observant of, of the lack of tolerance and how it affects them in the U.S. yeah.

[John Stebbick]

So this basically kind of Cody wars tape thing, skirmishing, they've literally, the Japanese.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Have got away with this for a little bit too long. So the Chinese and, and the U.S. treasury has them in their sights.

[John Stebbick]

Yeah. Excellent.

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[John Stebbick]

Well, I think that's a pretty convincing roundup of all the important stuff from this week. Just pretty impressed.

[Podcast Host / Narrator]

Is it in?

[John Stebbick]

Did we miss anything?

[Marcus Ashworth]

Oh, lots, I'm sure.

[John Stebbick]

But anything we feel qualified to discuss. Thanks for listening to this week's Mern Talks Money Debrief. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and keep sending your questions or comments to mernmoneyloombird.net you can also follow me and Marcus on Twitter or x. I'm on Stepeck and Marcus is arcusashworth. This episode was hosted by me, John Stepek, and it was produced by Moses Andam and Summer Sahadi.

[Podcast Host / Narrator]

A man with down syndrome tries the impossible, the grand slam in turkey hunting. 4:53 hits. We're legal, shooting light. And he gives us this one last chust.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Ow.

[Podcast Host / Narrator]

And he pitches off. And when he pitches off, he flies right into the gun barrel. I said to the cameraman, do you have him? He said, shoot him.

[Marcus Ashworth]

I said, justin, shoot.

[Podcast Host / Narrator]

You can download this episode and others from Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.