Markets Wrap: Gold, Bonds and Bitcoin Struggle as War Uncertainty Clouds Investor Outlook

Summary

Podcast Summary: Merryn Talks Money – Markets Wrap: Gold, Bonds and Bitcoin Struggle as War Uncertainty Clouds Investor Outlook

Date: March 27, 2026
Host: John Stevik (Bloomberg columnist, in for Merryn Somerset Webb)
Guest: Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion columnist, markets expert)

---

Episode Overview

This week’s “Markets Wrap” episode focuses on the confusion and volatility dominating global markets as war-induced uncertainty disrupts traditional “safe havens” like gold, bonds, and bitcoin. John Stevik and guest Marcus Ashworth take listeners through the most significant market moves, examine the challenges investors and policymakers face, and analyze why no single asset class is serving as a clear safe harbor.

---

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Troubles with Traditional Safe Havens

[02:18 – 04:41]

• Gold and Bitcoin’s Volatility:
  • Both have experienced corrections, with gold bouncing off the 200-day moving average.
  • Technical analysis has growing relevance in assets like gold and bitcoin that lack fundamental cashflows.
    • “Gold we can clearly see, and bitcoin has become sort of speculative, joined at the hip, and that's quite, quite a big correction. Gold...bounced off the 200 day moving average of 4100, and that shows that a lot of the speculative stuff is mostly out now.” – Marcus Ashworth [02:25]
    • “Technical analysis actually is pretty useful when it comes to stuff like gold and bitcoin specifically.” – John Stevik [02:59]
• Central Banks and Gold Reserves:
  • Some central banks may begin selling gold as intended to cover emergencies, signaling gold’s role as a genuine reserve.
    • “I wrote a piece basically saying that some central banks who have been buying may look to cash out, raid the piggy bank in their hour of need…” – Marcus Ashworth [03:29]
    • “Anyone who's selling gold at the moment from a central bank, I mean they're basically showing that it's—it's done what it was meant to do.” – John Stevik [04:41]

---

2. The Failure of Bonds as a Haven & The Role of Central Banks

[05:01 – 06:42]

• Interest Rates & Inflation:
  • Talk of possible rate hikes unnerves markets; bond yields are rising, not offering the safety normally expected.
    • “Bond markets and fixed income have not been anything like a haven you’d expect because they’re seeing straight through into inflation and potential changes of certainly no more rate cuts and potentially rate hikes…” – Marcus Ashworth [05:01]
• Endless Uncertainty:
  • Investor sentiment hinges on possible war resolution—a “relief rally” is expected if hostilities end, but fear of missing out keeps many in the market.
    • “Everyone’s hoping that they don’t want to miss out on the relief rally…” – Marcus Ashworth [06:21]

---

3. Markets, Fiscal Response, and the War

[08:09 – 10:28]

• Bitcoin’s Modest Move:
  • Bitcoin has risen since the war started but only after a steep fall.
    • “Bitcoin has actually gone up since the war started, but only because it fell so hard before.” – John Stevik [08:09]
• Fiscal Policy & Government Stimulus:
  • Fears of government bailouts, especially for energy, raising borrowing costs are minor—for now, there’s no major fiscal stimulus, but economic growth is under serious pressure.
    • “We calculated about 3 to 5 billion extra if prices persist this high. That’s not really going to change the dial...there's nothing like [a Liz Truss-style bailout] now yet, anyway.” – Marcus Ashworth [08:59]
    • “Growth in the UK is set to head towards zero again, which is staggering.” – Marcus Ashworth [09:32]
• Effect on Borrowers:
  • Elevated gilt yields are already tightening mortgage and corporate loan rates, potentially slowing the economy before any further Bank of England action.

---

4. Prospects for Growth, Rates, and the UK Economy

[10:28 – 11:54]

• Growth Outlook:
  • Earlier forecasts of modest growth now look optimistic; possibility of actual contraction if war continues.
    • “They were predicting less than 1% growth this year anyway...I think now we’ll be lucky we get half a percent at this rate.” – Marcus Ashworth [10:28]
• Central Bank Dilemmas:
  • Inflation remains sticky, but further rate hikes are unlikely to last; markets may soon price in cuts if economic weakness deepens.
    • “If they do have to cut—hike rates—maybe one, just to preemptively, I suspect it won't last very long.” – Marcus Ashworth [11:37]
    • “We have to be aware that all bets are off now and we have to look at things in a much more philosophical way.” – Marcus Ashworth [11:49]

---

5. Housing Market Trends

[13:31 – 14:55]

• London’s Falling Prices:
  • Official data show a 1.7% year-on-year drop; higher mortgage rates likely to push prices down further for certain segments.
    • “They've gone down for about six months in a row now and it was down something like 1.7%... year on year.” – John Stevik [13:31]
• Limited Downside, but No Rebound:
  • Most transactions aren't highly leveraged, so a collapse is unlikely, but any momentum for a turnaround is gone.
    • “London property will probably go to my mind, probably almost nowhere in that sense...it’s going to take a while to filter through.” – Marcus Ashworth [14:03]

---

6. How Much Worse Can It Get?

[14:55 – 17:09]

• Risks From War-Driven Commodity Shortages:
  • Knock-on effects from fuel rationing in Asia to global shortages of products derived from hydrocarbons.
    • “It’s all the other products...diesels and bitumen and all these sorts of things which…products from hydrocarbons are what really makes the world go round.” – Marcus Ashworth [15:16]
• Market ‘Deadline’ for Tolerance:
  • Most believe the war must end by mid-April or risk severe, spreading economic consequences.
    • “Most people view it as the early to mid part of April. That's really where everyone's tolerance and patience will put pressure on Trump to say, enough already.” – Marcus Ashworth [15:53]
• Outlook Unclear:
  • Any ceasefire or de-escalation could trigger a sharp market rally; a prolonged war risks systemic pain.
    • “These things, like a lobster pot, crazy to wander your way into these things and very, very difficult to turn around and get back out.” – Marcus Ashworth [16:35]

---

7. Investor Strategies in Uncertain Times

[17:09 – 18:07]

• Emphasizing Liquidity and Caution:
  • Investors reducing equity exposure, moving into cash, and de-leveraging, which could help stabilize markets in eventual recovery.
    • “There does seem to be quite a lot of movement into cash and reduction of equity positioning and outright market sort of position; that's definitely had a huge shakeout. So a lot of leverage has come out the system and that'll calm things down…” – Marcus Ashworth [17:09]
• Markets Not Structurally Unhealthy:
  • Fundamentals remain sound, but hopes are pinned on the conflict resolving soon.
    • “I don't think the markets are in bad shape structurally, but...they know that this will be over and done in a few weeks and we can get back to, you know, rallying like whatever. But if it does drag on there's going to be some more pain.” – Marcus Ashworth [17:46]

---

Memorable Quotes

• “No logical place to hide other than dol cash.” – Marcus Ashworth [08:02]
• “The worst bit of it may be open fairly soon. One would hope.” – Marcus Ashworth [16:59]
• “It's clear as mud and it's very difficult to navigate one’s way through this...Liquidity, if you have it, is clearly—the sensible thing to be.” – Marcus Ashworth [17:09]

---

Important Timestamps

• [02:18] – Safe havens falter; gold and bitcoin as speculative assets
• [05:01] – Bond market fails to provide safety, central bank policy uncertainty
• [08:59] – Fiscal policy responses and UK growth outlook
• [13:31] – London housing market decline
• [15:16] – War’s impact on global commodity supply chains
• [17:09] – Investor positioning: flight to cash and market de-leveraging

---

Episode Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is frank and analytical, with Marcus and John openly admitting that “nobody really seems to know what’s going on.” They stress the unprecedented nature of current market conditions, the lack of clear historical playbooks, and the need for caution, patience, and philosophical flexibility. The central message for investors: be defensive, value liquidity, and avoid panic-driven decisions—especially with hopes for rapid market recovery resting on unpredictable geopolitical events.

---

Summary prepared for listeners seeking the key content and insights from this “Markets Wrap” episode—skipping all ads, promos, and non-content segments.

Transcript

[Bison Wealth Advisor]

How much growth could your 401k be missing right now? Did you set it and forget it? That could be expensive. Studies show professionally managed 401ks could add hundreds of thousands by retirement. That's where Bison comes in. Our advisors actively manage your existing 401k. No transfers or rollovers helping power your retirement. Try the no obligation calculator at powermy401k.com. Bison wealth is a Fiduciary SEC registered investment advisor. See powermy401k.com for additional information.

[IBM AI Representative]

So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a Global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions. Resolving 94% of common questions. Not noise proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business.

[Adobe Acrobat Narrator]

IBM Everyone has been there. Your team's feedback is scattered across emails, chats and sticky notes. It's a mess but PDF spaces in Adobe Acrobat gives you one collaborative workspace to streamline every file and comment. So if you need six departments to finally agree on a proposal, do that with Acrobat. Need to turn a mountain of feedback into one plan of action. Do that with Acrobat. Want to stop searching for files and finally get everyone on the same page. Do that, do that, do that with Acrobat. Learn [e-mail] do that with Acrobat. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News. Foreign.

[John Stevik]

Welcome to the Merlin Talks Money Market Wrap where we talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and what's driving them. I'm John Stevik, author of the award winning Money Distilled newsletter. Stepping in for Merrinn this week and back again. Joining me in the studio is Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg opinion columnist and all round markets expert. Hello Marcus.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Hello John.

[Adobe Acrobat Narrator]

Thank you.

[John Stevik]

Thank you very much.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Lovely to see you again.

[John Stevik]

Joining us again, yes, it's excellent to have you here because nobody really seems to know what's going on.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Yeah, it's quite difficult when you get asked you know what's going to go on and where should you put your money or where shouldn't you put your money? And the answer is, well, the dollar has done okay. Ish, but still really not that well as a haven. In that sense. Gold we can clearly see and bitcoin has become sort of speculative. Joined at the Hip and that's quite, quite a big correction goal. But at least it did bounce off the 200 day moving average of 410, so 4,100 even. And that shows that I think that there's a lot of the speculative stuff is, is mostly out now.

[John Stevik]

I mean that is interesting because the, I suppose and people have a little bit of, you know, skepticism or the kind of skepticism about charting. But the truth is if there is A, if you're talking about short term moves and B, if you're talking about an asset that has no obvious fundamental pricing, you know, you can't price something that doesn't generate a cash flow easily. So technical analysis actually is pretty useful when it comes to stuff like gold and bitcoin specifically.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Yeah, I mean, well indeed some of these markets, like a lot of FX markets are everyone praised tactical. So you don't. I think gold is reasonably important factor to it. So I think this puts gold into a different paradigm in the sense it's now perhaps a bit more normal. I wrote a piece basically saying that some central banks who have been buying may look to cash out, you know, raid the piggy bank and their hour of need as we clearly can see, both if they're energy resource poor or indeed requiring a lot more bangy things because a little military need. So I think it's going to be quite an interesting time where you know, certain Asian and Middle Eastern countries may, may decide just to trim a little bit of what's been a fabulous returning asset in gold and that will help smooth the sort of pain on their, on their, on their properties. But equally some still believe in gold, still want to move away from the dollar for whatever reason. You know, the gold has attraction. So as that sense, I don't think, you know, gold is going to collapse like that. I just think it's going to do better but chop some wood and there's good reasons to buy and good reasons to sell it and that makes it a little bit more, possibly a little bit more predictive than it has been over the last year or two.

[John Stevik]

I think that's really interesting. I mean the point of central banks buying reserve assets is to an extent to have something they can rely on in emergencies. And so we've had an emergency. So anyone who's selling gold at the moment from a central bank, I mean they're basically showing that it's what is done, what it was meant to do.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Yeah. And I think all the talk of interest rate hikes among major central banks. Well one, I think it's madness because an external supply shock, there's very little you can control. Control it. And more importantly with labor markets weakening and general overall economic sogginess, the actual price mechanism isn't going to be quite so bad this time. Likely not to be quite so bad in the sense that second round effects and wage demands and all the things that followed clearly in 2022 is unlike to be anywhere near as strong. However, clearly central banks aren't taking any risks on that and there's a lot of talk at the moment. I hope that will calm down a bit. But clearly bond markets and fixed income have not been anything like a haven you would expect because they're seeing straight through into inflation and potential changes of certainly no more rate cuts and potentially rate hikes that will work its way out I hope. But we've got to really have a clearer end to the war for that to really have any form of level of confidence at some point if bond yields keep on rising and it does make me feel a little bit sick, this will move credit spreads wider and it will move equity markets down. But we are holding on. Everyone's hoping that they don't want to miss out on the relief rally when any of it ever properly comes.

[John Stevik]

Well there is that, isn't there? There's that element the Trump put still works, but it doesn't work the same way that the Greenspan or the central bank put used to. It's like with central banks it was like well they'll actually print money and do something that props the market up. But at some point Trump's kind of like social media output has to lose its potency.

[Marcus Ashworth]

I think we've seen it maybe at sort of 6,500 on the S&P, $100 on certainly West Texas crude and maybe 5% on the 30 year yield or four and a half, what do you want to call it? Or more on the 10 year is where clearly he doesn't find very comfortable and that's when you get slightly more dovish comments coming from him. But I mean there's no point trying to guess where the war is going to go or it's going to stop. And I think that's where it's quite tricky to choose markets. I do see plenty of talk about even SpaceX IPOs and the electronic Arts LBO deal going through. Clearly in the US primary bond markets are open, less so in Europe, but there's still the odd deal came through a few today, six I think mostly from Coca Cola. But the point is that the Markets already want to go back. Perhaps that's front running a little bit too aggressively. What really will happen with this war. But no one's really willing to cash in and bail out of all equities. They expect them to bounce back hard when it does end. So it's a bit of a strange market. As I said, bond markets are trading very poorly. Currencies are again, the dollar is a bit stronger, but not that much stronger.

[John Stevik]

It's not obvious, is it?

[Marcus Ashworth]

And gold as we know hasn't worked very well, nor is bitcoin or anything like that. So there's no logical place to hide other than dol cash.

[John Stevik]

Bitcoin has actually gone up since the war started, but only because it fell so hard before. So yeah, it's kind of splitting hairs, but I think the bitcoin people would say, oh, wait a minute, it's up 7, 6%. The one thing I was going to ask about, the fiscal side. So going back to bond yields, how much of the concern is not so much or not just about the fear that central banks will actually raise interest rates and instead about, well, what happens whenever governments start to try and bail out people for their energy bills? How much is that going to drive up borrowing costs? Like in Britain, for example, get an energy bailout when Rachel Reeves is already looking at her fiscal headroom vanishing down the pattern. Is there any of that?

[Marcus Ashworth]

I mean we calculated about 3 to 5 billion extra if prices persist this high. That's not really going to change the dial. They're clearly not talking about any packages anywhere. Like the Liz Truss style bailout, which of course that was the real mover and shaker. The unfunded taxes was a minor, very minor thing compared to the huge potential energy which ended up only being a quarter of what it could have been. But that's the real driver then. So there's nothing like that now yet anyway. And clearly the government isn't ready to start opening North Seoul or anything like that. So for the moment, I think currently in the UK there is a window because the way the off gen price cap works out till June, July, July and then if it's the next time, which will be higher. But you know, clearly, but I mean it's just not necessary. They've got a few months of hoping, praying that this war goes away, but nonetheless growth in the UK is set to head towards zero again, which is staggering. So that's what I personally don't think the bank of England will be able to really bring themselves to hike rates. But you know the market gilt yields up close to 5%. You know, this doing all the hard work for them anyway. It's pricing. Mortgage deals have gone through, you know, the roof and likewise, you know, corporate loans and things like that, which are priced off gilts. You know, it is already, the pinch is already happening. So one hopes that will do a lot of the heavy lifting for the bank and they won't feel they need to do much more because the economy

[John Stevik]

will be mulled anyway.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Well, I mean, I think, I think we're looking. They, they were predicting less than 1% growth this year anyway, which was a bit on the low side. The OBR had been much more optimistic. They trimmed it back, but just over 1 1.2, something like that. But I think now we'll be lucky. We'll get half a percent at this rate. So bear in mind the first quarter, the last two or three years has been the big quarter and the rest of the year has been pretty much flat. And it's a real kick in the teeth to get. First quarter is going to go be flat probably at best on a very, very small up. So that's going to kick the momentum out of the economy, stop it dead. And I think that's a worry because if we were to get rate hike in the UK and likewise in Europe again, I don't see it happening for them. But bear in mind their rates are at 2%, we're at 3/4, so we're nearly double. Though we do have stickier inflation where they are index everything and up at ratchets and people demand higher wage rises. It's very hard to get out of the system in the uk but it was looking like it was going to start coming out. But I think if they do have to cut hike rates maybe one just to, you know, preemptively, I suspect it won't last very long. And I see the bank of England turning around to, to cutting rates again, possibly quite sharply if the economy really does collapse. I don't think this is going to happen. But we have to be aware that all bets are off now and we have to look at things in a much more philosophical way.

[Bison Wealth Advisor]

How much growth could your 401k be missing right now? Did you set it and forget it? That could be expensive. Studies show professionally managed 401ks could add hundreds of thousands by retirement. That's where Bison comes in. Our advisors actively manage your existing 401k. No transfers or rollovers helping power your retirement. Try the no obligation calculator at powermy401k.com Bison wealth is a Fiduciary SEC registered investment advisor. See powermy401k.com for additional information.

[IBM AI Representative]

So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a Global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions. Resolving 94% of common questions, not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business IBM.

[Podcast Host]

For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down, often without clear warning signs. In season three of the Visibility Gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare.

[John Stevik]

We touched on the housing market there briefly on mortgage rates, but it did catch my eye yesterday. Although, you know, I've been aware of this for a while. But like London prices from the ons, the official house price index, which I don't pay that much attention to because it's very late in arriving, but they've gone down for about six months in a row now and it was down something like 1.7% or something like that year on year it was quite a significant drop. I mean clearly if mortgage rates go up, that's going to get worse this year presumably.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Well, there was sign of it turning around. It had fallen so hard and so fast and I just think that's kicked the momentum out of it again. And then yeah, that knock on effect of like the marginal buyer, you know, buying on a 80 or 90% loan to value is, is going to be put off. It won't alter the bulk of transactions these days which are 60% or indeed in cash. But again, people will be more cautious and not the knock on effect for the whole rest of the economy won't be great, but it's going to take a while to filter through that and I think that, you know, London property will probably go to my mind, probably almost nowhere in that sense. I don't think it's going to collapse much further. I think we've seen, you know, towards the bottom but as I said, that momentum, when you're starting to look like it's going to turn around is. Ain't happening no more.

[John Stevik]

And just a final question, which really is take your pick, take your guess. I mean, how much longer do you think this goes on for before we actually start to see something very unpleasant? Because, I mean, there are signs that countries elsewhere, like in Asia, I mean, they're having to start rationing fuel supplies in some place, which, yeah, as we

[Marcus Ashworth]

know, it's not just the, the visible stuff, it's. It's the stuff that comes off it. You know, fertilizers, Naptha for plastic bags, apparently, is a huge. Russian, South Korea for plastic bags. You know, it's all, it's all the other products which, you know, the heavier stuff, you know, diesels and bitumen and all these sorts of things which, you know, products from hydrocarbons are what really makes the world go round. And I think, I mean, Deutsche bank did a quite interesting survey when everyone thought the war would come to an end. And I think most people view it as the early to mid part of April. That's really where everyone's tolerance and patience will put pressure on Trump to say, enough already. And that may well be earlier than that. But I think we know the deadline, end of Friday, is normally where obviously, if there were any further big pickup hostilities that will happen over this weekend, if it carries on after that for much longer, I think it will become increasingly less and less effective, increasingly less and less easy for the US administration and Israel to carry on. So I'd rather they get on with it very quickly and accelerate it right here, right now and see if they can break the Iranians or indeed there are. There will be some success. And so I don't think many people see it extending out into late April, but, you know, these things, like a lobster pot, crazy to wander your way into these things and very, very difficult to turn around and get back out. So, you know, but I mean, I sense what I'm talking about is, is a cessation, some form of ceasefire, some form of, yeah, partial opening the straits for me, I don't think the, you know, this will drag off for a long while, but in a sense that the worst bit of it may be open fairly soon. One would, One would hope.

[John Stevik]

Well, fingers crossed and thank you very much again, Marcus. I think.

[Marcus Ashworth]

Yeah, I wish I could be clearer on this stuff, but it is. It's clear as mud and it's very difficult to navigate one's way through this without, you know, keep it tight, keep it, keep it close to home and, you know, try not to obviously panic out of anything but you know, liquidity if you have it, is clearly where the sensible thing to be. But there does seem to be quite a lot of movement into cash and reduction of equity positioning and outright market sort of position that's definitely had a huge shakeout. So a lot of leverage has come out the system and that'll calm things down once we get some.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. I mean that's not unhealthy.

[Marcus Ashworth]

No, exactly. I don't think the markets are in bad shape structurally, but you know, there is still quite a lot of hope and expectations. As I said, they know that this will be over and done in a few weeks and we can get back to, you know, rallying like whatever. But if it does drag on there's going to be some more more pain. But let's hope that hasn't the case.

[John Stevik]

No more by the dip. Well, thanks for listening to this week's Myrntox Money Debrief. If you like the show, rate, review and subscribe, subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and also be sure to follow me and Marcus on x Twitter. I'm at johnstepec and Marcus is arcusashworth all one words. The episode was produced by Moses Andam and Summer Saadi and special thanks to Marcus Ashworth. As always,

[Adobe Acrobat Narrator]

If you follow markets, you know the value of long term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day. For more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has helped individuals and businesses navigate tough moments. With expertise, personal attention and independent agents who focus on relationships, not transactions, the Cincinnati insurance companies let them make your bad day better. Find an agent@cin fin.com deadlines shift, plans

[Podcast Host]

change and sometimes you just need promo products fast. Turn to 4imprint 4imprint has hundreds of promotional items available with 24 hour turnaround. From custom apparel and drinkware to trade show gear, writing tools and more. And their 360 degree guarantee promises your logo will be printed with care, your order ships fast and it'll show up right and on time. That's the certainty of 4imprint. Check out the full 24 hour selection at 4imprint.com 4imprint for certain. Find home wherever you roam at Sinesta ES and simply suites where longer stays feel comfortable, flexible and easy. Stretch out and enjoy spacious accommodations and homelike amenities designed to help you settle in and stay productive or relaxed for however long you need. And when you're a Sonesta TravelPass member, staying at Sonesta ES and simply suites means earning points toward free nights, upgrades and more with every eligible stay. Go to Sonesta.com to book your stay and unlock the best rates with Sonesta Travel Pass Here today, roam tomorrow. Join [e-mail] Terms and conditions apply.