Podcast Summary: Merryn Talks Money – Markets Wrap: Gold, Bonds and Bitcoin Struggle as War Uncertainty Clouds Investor Outlook
Date: March 27, 2026
Host: John Stevik (Bloomberg columnist, in for Merryn Somerset Webb)
Guest: Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion columnist, markets expert)
Episode Overview
This week’s “Markets Wrap” episode focuses on the confusion and volatility dominating global markets as war-induced uncertainty disrupts traditional “safe havens” like gold, bonds, and bitcoin. John Stevik and guest Marcus Ashworth take listeners through the most significant market moves, examine the challenges investors and policymakers face, and analyze why no single asset class is serving as a clear safe harbor.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. The Troubles with Traditional Safe Havens
[02:18 – 04:41]
- Gold and Bitcoin’s Volatility:
- Both have experienced corrections, with gold bouncing off the 200-day moving average.
- Technical analysis has growing relevance in assets like gold and bitcoin that lack fundamental cashflows.
- “Gold we can clearly see, and bitcoin has become sort of speculative, joined at the hip, and that's quite, quite a big correction. Gold...bounced off the 200 day moving average of 4100, and that shows that a lot of the speculative stuff is mostly out now.” – Marcus Ashworth [02:25]
- “Technical analysis actually is pretty useful when it comes to stuff like gold and bitcoin specifically.” – John Stevik [02:59]
- Central Banks and Gold Reserves:
- Some central banks may begin selling gold as intended to cover emergencies, signaling gold’s role as a genuine reserve.
- “I wrote a piece basically saying that some central banks who have been buying may look to cash out, raid the piggy bank in their hour of need…” – Marcus Ashworth [03:29]
- “Anyone who's selling gold at the moment from a central bank, I mean they're basically showing that it's—it's done what it was meant to do.” – John Stevik [04:41]
- Some central banks may begin selling gold as intended to cover emergencies, signaling gold’s role as a genuine reserve.
2. The Failure of Bonds as a Haven & The Role of Central Banks
[05:01 – 06:42]
- Interest Rates & Inflation:
- Talk of possible rate hikes unnerves markets; bond yields are rising, not offering the safety normally expected.
- “Bond markets and fixed income have not been anything like a haven you’d expect because they’re seeing straight through into inflation and potential changes of certainly no more rate cuts and potentially rate hikes…” – Marcus Ashworth [05:01]
- Talk of possible rate hikes unnerves markets; bond yields are rising, not offering the safety normally expected.
- Endless Uncertainty:
- Investor sentiment hinges on possible war resolution—a “relief rally” is expected if hostilities end, but fear of missing out keeps many in the market.
- “Everyone’s hoping that they don’t want to miss out on the relief rally…” – Marcus Ashworth [06:21]
- Investor sentiment hinges on possible war resolution—a “relief rally” is expected if hostilities end, but fear of missing out keeps many in the market.
3. Markets, Fiscal Response, and the War
[08:09 – 10:28]
- Bitcoin’s Modest Move:
- Bitcoin has risen since the war started but only after a steep fall.
- “Bitcoin has actually gone up since the war started, but only because it fell so hard before.” – John Stevik [08:09]
- Bitcoin has risen since the war started but only after a steep fall.
- Fiscal Policy & Government Stimulus:
- Fears of government bailouts, especially for energy, raising borrowing costs are minor—for now, there’s no major fiscal stimulus, but economic growth is under serious pressure.
- “We calculated about 3 to 5 billion extra if prices persist this high. That’s not really going to change the dial...there's nothing like [a Liz Truss-style bailout] now yet, anyway.” – Marcus Ashworth [08:59]
- “Growth in the UK is set to head towards zero again, which is staggering.” – Marcus Ashworth [09:32]
- Fears of government bailouts, especially for energy, raising borrowing costs are minor—for now, there’s no major fiscal stimulus, but economic growth is under serious pressure.
- Effect on Borrowers:
- Elevated gilt yields are already tightening mortgage and corporate loan rates, potentially slowing the economy before any further Bank of England action.
4. Prospects for Growth, Rates, and the UK Economy
[10:28 – 11:54]
- Growth Outlook:
- Earlier forecasts of modest growth now look optimistic; possibility of actual contraction if war continues.
- “They were predicting less than 1% growth this year anyway...I think now we’ll be lucky we get half a percent at this rate.” – Marcus Ashworth [10:28]
- Earlier forecasts of modest growth now look optimistic; possibility of actual contraction if war continues.
- Central Bank Dilemmas:
- Inflation remains sticky, but further rate hikes are unlikely to last; markets may soon price in cuts if economic weakness deepens.
- “If they do have to cut—hike rates—maybe one, just to preemptively, I suspect it won't last very long.” – Marcus Ashworth [11:37]
- “We have to be aware that all bets are off now and we have to look at things in a much more philosophical way.” – Marcus Ashworth [11:49]
- Inflation remains sticky, but further rate hikes are unlikely to last; markets may soon price in cuts if economic weakness deepens.
5. Housing Market Trends
[13:31 – 14:55]
- London’s Falling Prices:
- Official data show a 1.7% year-on-year drop; higher mortgage rates likely to push prices down further for certain segments.
- “They've gone down for about six months in a row now and it was down something like 1.7%... year on year.” – John Stevik [13:31]
- Official data show a 1.7% year-on-year drop; higher mortgage rates likely to push prices down further for certain segments.
- Limited Downside, but No Rebound:
- Most transactions aren't highly leveraged, so a collapse is unlikely, but any momentum for a turnaround is gone.
- “London property will probably go to my mind, probably almost nowhere in that sense...it’s going to take a while to filter through.” – Marcus Ashworth [14:03]
- Most transactions aren't highly leveraged, so a collapse is unlikely, but any momentum for a turnaround is gone.
6. How Much Worse Can It Get?
[14:55 – 17:09]
- Risks From War-Driven Commodity Shortages:
- Knock-on effects from fuel rationing in Asia to global shortages of products derived from hydrocarbons.
- “It’s all the other products...diesels and bitumen and all these sorts of things which…products from hydrocarbons are what really makes the world go round.” – Marcus Ashworth [15:16]
- Knock-on effects from fuel rationing in Asia to global shortages of products derived from hydrocarbons.
- Market ‘Deadline’ for Tolerance:
- Most believe the war must end by mid-April or risk severe, spreading economic consequences.
- “Most people view it as the early to mid part of April. That's really where everyone's tolerance and patience will put pressure on Trump to say, enough already.” – Marcus Ashworth [15:53]
- Most believe the war must end by mid-April or risk severe, spreading economic consequences.
- Outlook Unclear:
- Any ceasefire or de-escalation could trigger a sharp market rally; a prolonged war risks systemic pain.
- “These things, like a lobster pot, crazy to wander your way into these things and very, very difficult to turn around and get back out.” – Marcus Ashworth [16:35]
- Any ceasefire or de-escalation could trigger a sharp market rally; a prolonged war risks systemic pain.
7. Investor Strategies in Uncertain Times
[17:09 – 18:07]
- Emphasizing Liquidity and Caution:
- Investors reducing equity exposure, moving into cash, and de-leveraging, which could help stabilize markets in eventual recovery.
- “There does seem to be quite a lot of movement into cash and reduction of equity positioning and outright market sort of position; that's definitely had a huge shakeout. So a lot of leverage has come out the system and that'll calm things down…” – Marcus Ashworth [17:09]
- Investors reducing equity exposure, moving into cash, and de-leveraging, which could help stabilize markets in eventual recovery.
- Markets Not Structurally Unhealthy:
- Fundamentals remain sound, but hopes are pinned on the conflict resolving soon.
- “I don't think the markets are in bad shape structurally, but...they know that this will be over and done in a few weeks and we can get back to, you know, rallying like whatever. But if it does drag on there's going to be some more pain.” – Marcus Ashworth [17:46]
- Fundamentals remain sound, but hopes are pinned on the conflict resolving soon.
Memorable Quotes
- “No logical place to hide other than dol cash.” – Marcus Ashworth [08:02]
- “The worst bit of it may be open fairly soon. One would hope.” – Marcus Ashworth [16:59]
- “It's clear as mud and it's very difficult to navigate one’s way through this...Liquidity, if you have it, is clearly—the sensible thing to be.” – Marcus Ashworth [17:09]
Important Timestamps
- [02:18] – Safe havens falter; gold and bitcoin as speculative assets
- [05:01] – Bond market fails to provide safety, central bank policy uncertainty
- [08:59] – Fiscal policy responses and UK growth outlook
- [13:31] – London housing market decline
- [15:16] – War’s impact on global commodity supply chains
- [17:09] – Investor positioning: flight to cash and market de-leveraging
Episode Tone and Takeaways
The conversation is frank and analytical, with Marcus and John openly admitting that “nobody really seems to know what’s going on.” They stress the unprecedented nature of current market conditions, the lack of clear historical playbooks, and the need for caution, patience, and philosophical flexibility. The central message for investors: be defensive, value liquidity, and avoid panic-driven decisions—especially with hopes for rapid market recovery resting on unpredictable geopolitical events.
Summary prepared for listeners seeking the key content and insights from this “Markets Wrap” episode—skipping all ads, promos, and non-content segments.