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- [00:00]
IBM Representative
So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions, not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business, lets create smarter
- [00:29]
The Hartford Representative
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- [01:11]
Wise Representative
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- [01:43]
Narrator/Announcer
Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news foreign.
- [01:58]
Merrin Sumset
Welcome to the Merin Talks Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week and what is driving them. I am Merrin Sumset, Web UK Money Editor at Large.
- [02:07]
John Stebik
And I'm John Stebik, senior reporter at Bloomberg and author of the Money Distilled newsletter.
- [02:13]
Merrin Sumset
Right, John, there is a lot going on, which is outrageous, really, given that it's holiday time and both of us are, you know, back and forth from glamorous destinations. We shouldn't be having to talk about who's going to be the next Chancellor of the uk Again, this is number
- [02:29]
John Stebik
nine, I think, in Simon French was saying, in something like 10 years, that's quite a lot.
- [02:35]
Merrin Sumset
No more chancellors than prime ministers.
- [02:37]
John Stebik
Yeah.
- [02:39]
Merrin Sumset
So do we care? Can you drag up any interest? Does it matter? Is it more of the same? I tell you, the only Thing that matters is that it's not Ed Miliband.
- [02:50]
John Stebik
The worst things I say, that's the key.
- [02:52]
Merrin Sumset
If it's not Ed Miliband, we just get more of the miserable fame. If it is Ed Miliband, we get a nasty shift to the left and more net zero blah. And yeah, bond markets will be a little upset. The rest of the world would look at us with even more eye rolling than usual.
- [03:09]
John Stebik
Yeah, I think that's basically it. The only thing I would say is, well, a couple things. One, it's interesting because I actually think part of this is because there was a Bloomberg survey, reader survey out and it came back and I, I think it was not yesterday but the day before the results were and Ed Miliband was deemed the least market friendly Chancellor. And up until then he was the absolute top favorite, including among people who I chat to who know about this stuff. They would sort of tell me Ed Miliband's nailed down for Chancellor.
- [03:39]
Merrin Sumset
That's what I heard too. Absolutely nailed down. Fixed in stone or fixed in Edstone.
- [03:45]
John Stebik
Yes, yes. And then suddenly this story comes out on Bloomberg and wow, the odds suddenly shift drama. And it looks as if we're going to get Shabana Mahmoud for Chancellor instead. And again, as you say, the only thing we know is that she's not as left wing as Ed Miliband. And that's been enough to actually, it did give gilts and the pound a little bit of a boost yesterday. I'm usually very, very careful about attributing these things to politics, but everything else was down and gilts in the pound were up. And it looks as if it probably was something to do with a bit of relief on that front.
- [04:22]
Merrin Sumset
Yeah. But you know what, John?
- [04:24]
John Stebik
Yes.
- [04:25]
Merrin Sumset
I think that's absolutely terrifying. Shall I tell you why?
- [04:28]
John Stebik
Yeah.
- [04:28]
Merrin Sumset
Because that Market Pulse of Market Pulse survey from Bloomberg told us something so obvious that is beyond the bounds of all reason that anyone in the government could possibly have not known, it could not have understood that Ed Miliband would be the least market friendly contender, not new news, not something you'd have to look at any survey to know. So how can it possibly be that the results of a survey showing that Ed Miliband would be the considered the least market friendly Chancellor for the UK could be new news to an incoming Prime Minister when it is not new news to anybody else? And that for me is quite scary and bodes really badly for the next few years.
- [05:21]
John Stebik
I mean, that is worrying. And I think you're right. This boils down to the other big point about it is how can this stuff, A, already not be nailed down and B, if he was going to go with him, then it should have been an anticipation of a negative reaction from the markets. And then have a think about how he was going to deal with that. It shouldn't. I mean, the only rationale thing that you can say about it, and to be honest, I don't even believe this, because I think most of them are too narcissistic to not see these things until they're in their face. But one thing you could say is maybe Burnham needed an excuse not to appoint Miliband and then he gets the excuse in the form of something like this, oh, look, I was gonna hire you, but now the headlines are all saying that you'd be a terrible Chancellor. And that's, you know, it's no me mate. It's. It's the, you know, bond market or whatever. But that is.
- [06:15]
Merrin Sumset
Sure, but that's even worse, John. That's even worse. We've already got the it's no me mate bit.
- [06:21]
John Stebik
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [06:22]
Merrin Sumset
Right. And he's not even Prime Minister yet.
- [06:25]
John Stebik
Yes. That just puts you right back to where Keir Starmer was a year ago.
- [06:29]
Merrin Sumset
So it doesn't matter how you interpret this shift, assuming it is a shift. I mean, they're not done yet, right?
- [06:35]
John Stebik
Well, yeah, exactly.
- [06:37]
Merrin Sumset
There is no way whatsoever to interpret this positively beyond the fact that if he's not Chancellor. Well, I mean, that's a minor positive, but it doesn't. You can't interpret it positively in terms of the way Burnham is thinking and the way he is likely to manage going further and, you know, prove me wrong. The future, please.
- [06:57]
John Stebik
Oh, yeah, yeah. I would love to be wrong with this. The ultimate hedge is if we're wrong, then things get better, and if we're right, then the only consolation is you get to see I told you so along with the rest of the population. So.
- [07:12]
Merrin Sumset
All right, moving on, John, because my head's going to explode. Moving on. There are a couple of other things we wanted to talk about. Right. We wanted to talk about SpaceX being back to its IPO price, which is really depressing for the entire team because regular listeners will know that my profits on my vast SpaceX position were to be used to buy the team summer drinks. And now there are no profits, so no summer drinks. Sorry, guys. Sorry, Summer. Summer. Moses. Sorry, Moses.
- [07:37]
John Stebik
Does that mean we need to buy you a drink if it goes negative from here?
- [07:42]
Merrin Sumset
Yes, yes, yes. It's on you and I'LL have the Bollinger. Thanks very much.
- [07:49]
John Stebik
Depending on how far it falls, it may even amount to that. You never know.
- [07:53]
Merrin Sumset
Might even. Okay, so back to ipo. One of the things that you and I have worried about for a long time now is that these big IPOs might be a negative marker for the market. Might give us some kinds of top. There were a variety of studies, studies, reports when the IPOs were first announced about the giant sucking sound. Money goes out of other parts of the market to go into the IPOs and then of course maybe slides back out again to go into other things. So there's a lot going on in the market and that this first IPO is not an immediate success is a worry.
- [08:27]
John Stebik
Yeah. And it's interesting because the most recent high for the US markets that both the S and P and NASDAQ was 2 June and the SpaceX IPO was 11 June. That doesn't mean they're not going to make new highs. But it is kind of interesting in that if this did prove to be the top, it wouldn't be an astonishing thing to happen. It's also, I think it's just, it's a useful reminder as much as anything else that you shouldn't outsource your investment thoughts or views to the market price itself. Because, you know, before SpaceX launched, lots of people thought actually this, this looks kind of expensive and it was kind of expensive. And then it shoots up on the day and everyone thinks, oh God, maybe everyone else knows something I don't. And so the temptation is then to try and pile in or try and make a quick buck or whatever. But history shows that IPOs, even long term successful ones, do tend to drop below their IPO price at some point within the first year of average down.
- [09:33]
Merrin Sumset
Average down 8%. Right.
- [09:35]
John Stebik
And we're talking things like Facebook and Google here. We're not talking things that, you know, hit the dot. So a, this is perfectly normal IPO behavior in all honesty. But also more importantly I think is that, well, Yeah, I mean, SpaceX was overpriced. It probably still is overpriced at this level. And you shouldn't feel under pressure to buy something just because it's going up.
- [09:59]
Merrin Sumset
I mean, I suppose it does make sense if you think about it, which we do try to do, don't we think about things for an IPO to end its first year down? Because when do you bring something to an IPO and you think can get the absolute maximum top price for it? And the whole idea of the, the olden days, there was an idea that you should leave something on the table. You shouldn't bring it to market at its peak price. You should leave something on the table for the public market investors. But I think those days are gone. So when you bring your company to market, you do it when you think you can get the maximum for it. So it makes complete sense that it would then end the year slightly off 8%. Makes sort of intuitive sense.
- [10:34]
John Stebik
Yeah, it's a seller's market.
- [10:36]
Merrin Sumset
It's a seller's market. Right. Just as we look at this kind of thing and think, oh well, things were a little toppy and these giant IPOs might change some things, etc. We then get a half yearly letter from Terry Smith, manager of the Fundsmith Equity Fund which is, boy, has that had a nasty time recently. So no. Wow. Now we're look, I'm just looking at the chart of the performance of this Fundsmith Equity Fund which I know a lot of listeners in the UK will be in because Terry Smith, the very well known manager here now it is, let me see here, Fundsmith equity fund from the 1st of January this year to the end of June this year down 3%. MSC World Index up 11% and of course other things up a lot more now since inception. Okay, we have to say this because, you know, let's be nice here. Since inception the fund is still up 13% annualized and MSCI World up 12 and a half percent annualized. So, you know, okay, but probably not quite what people expected when they bought into the hype around this. Now here's interesting. Well, I hope it's interesting to people. What, what Terry Smith always said that he would do is to buy good companies, don't overpay for those companies and then do nothing, just sit and wait. And theoretically that should really work. I mean we're both down with that, aren't we John? Buy great companies, don't ever pay for them and then sit around and wait because investing is a long term game. But it has not been in this environment of the shift to passive. Because what really works in this environment is momentum investing, not long term quality slash value investing. Right. So he is now beginning to backtrack and this letter is, it's worth reading by the way. I'm going to put the link into the show notes so you can read it. It's a public letter and he talks about the way that passive has conquered the world and that possibly one needs to adjust one's investing process as a result. And what, what Terry is going to do is to change his holding periods as opposed to anything else. So still buy good companies, still don't overpay, but the third leg needs change. So if you look at their portfolio turnover, it's gone up a lot. And as he quite rightly points out, in a world where share prices sometimes move 20, 30% a day, even in very big stocks, buy and hold kind of doesn't work anymore.
- [13:01]
John Stebik
It's a tricky one, isn't it? Because I actually sympathize overall his view and the passive has turned markets into a momentum market. And this has been the case for a long time now, certainly longer than reversion of the mean which investors can handle. I think it's also interesting though, the one thing I would say, and I can see why, obviously he doesn't want to go there, but he and Nick Train, another big retail facing fund manager, have a sort of similar style which is this focus on quality thing. And you know, from the investment point of view, I respect them both. They both explain their ideas very well, they're very good at communicating with investors and obviously they both have excellent long term track records. I think it is also fair to say that their style kind of went out of fashion and partly that was for I would argue reasonably predictable reasons because a lot of this stopped in 2021 after the COVID ultra zero interest rates. Backdrop ended. Interest rates went up and most of those stocks then got demolished. And a lot of them were also the kinds of stocks that then got further hit in the software as a service apocalypse as they called it, as in AI is going to take all that business. So I feel that there's a lot of sense in sticking to one strategy. It makes a lot of sense. But I do think that that was perhaps a turning point at which an active manager, even when we are long term, ultra long term take on things, might have wanted to look at what was changing about the backdrop and then reconsider their portfolio within those parameters. But maybe that's unfair, Maybe that's unfair.
- [15:09]
Merrin Sumset
But it's interesting, isn't it? I mean when we were talking about what we were going to talk about today, you said, well, there's a lot of turning points out there. And seeing someone like Terry Smith, who's been so clear and so firm in his view and his investing style for so long to start to make changes in it makes me feel a little contrarian.
- [15:34]
John Stebik
I mean, yeah, I mean there is an element of capitulation here as well.
- [15:38]
Merrin Sumset
Yeah.
- [15:41]
John Stebik
And obviously, well, that goes with all the other signs that we are very toppy at the moment. I think the problem with all of the top signs is that, well, it's working out when the domino is finally going to fall over. Like what is the straw that breaks the camel's back? Because there's seen a lot of them and a lot of them going back years now, you know, not just months.
- [16:06]
Merrin Sumset
Yeah. What we really need there is a turning point in the UK stock market because the other thing you said we got to talk about is the ongoing demise of the UK stock market. Closing down sale continues. I'm afraid I'm not sure who it was you wrote closing down sales continues on Twitter. And somebody wrote underneath it. At least this time we won't have to turn the lights out. Which of course is a, a reference to our rather rickety electricity grid and the fact that the lights might just turn themselves out. I thought it's quite funny.
- [16:36]
John Stebik
Yes. Well done, George.
- [16:37]
Merrin Sumset
In a funny, not funny way.
- [16:38]
John Stebik
George Cooper.
- [16:39]
Merrin Sumset
Go, George. Good joke. Excellent. Excellent joke.
- [16:49]
Apple Card Representative
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- [17:02]
Narrator/Announcer
and more@applecard.com let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling the system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system. So care is connected, not complicated for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person. From primary care doctors to mental health support and even in home care. And then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients in those prescriptions. Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how support
- [18:04]
The Hartford Representative
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- [19:00]
Merrin Sumset
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- [19:03]
John Stebik
Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors LLC.
- [19:07]
Merrin Sumset
SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures anyway John ongoing demise of the UK stock market. We've lost another company, haven't we?
- [19:20]
John Stebik
Yeah, I mean so there was a bid for Rotork, which is an engineer and I don't know very much about rotork. It's a familiar name to me. Low I believe it was set up in Bath. As soon as we part of that tweet I got an awful lot of older city heads kind of replying saying oh I remember that that was one of the first stocks I ever covered kind of thing. So it's got a long history of being here and but yeah it is just the the latest one to get kind of swiped up. And I think the other interesting thing is that this week I was writing about this in Money Distilled Barrett Redrow, the house builder I know that you're not your favorite sector for very acceptable reasons but hate them.
- [20:03]
Merrin Sumset
Just go look at the houses they built. Scandal, scandal. All the house builders. And I hate them for the hideous houses that they built and I hate them for not not trying. But I do understand that the regulatory environment is difficult but I still don't think that these houses have to be quite this hideous.
- [20:19]
John Stebik
I think this is fair but the reason I bring it up is because basically one of their big shareholders said to them look, you need to buy back your own shares because no one else is going to appreciate what
- [20:33]
The Hartford Representative
good
- [20:33]
John Stebik
quality in terms of profitability long term business you've got. They've started doing that and it's just adding to the whole sense that nobody these things are just lying around unappreciated on the supermarket shelf until someone with an eye for a bargain comes along and takes them or the management themselves kind of basically eye For a bargain.
- [20:57]
Merrin Sumset
And no moral compass.
- [20:58]
John Stebik
Yeah, exactly. Start to extract the kind of the value themselves if you like. So I don't know if there is a turning point because regardless of how much we're buying this drum, nobody seems to be paying attention.
- [21:17]
Merrin Sumset
No one's interested. I know, I know.
- [21:20]
John Stebik
Which is fine from a short term point of view because at the end of the day, if you can invest in these stocks, then you'll get the takeover premium or you'll get to be the last person owning the last share outstanding. So you make money that way. It's just, just not great for the long term health of the economy. If our equity markets specifically, because London's capital markets as a whole are fine, there's nothing wrong with them. But this bet is just dying on its backside and I think we should try to stop that from happening.
- [21:54]
Merrin Sumset
Okay, well, we should try. And to be fair to Rachel Reeves, this is one thing she did slightly get and she was trying at least in a regulatory environment. So let's see, it was focused on private assets. Comes up with on a similar subject because we have for years, John, our favorite, favorite markets you and I have been Japan and the UK and you know, Japan has kind of come good. The UK has come a little good, but not that good as just discussed. But Japan is, is really interesting because the other thing we've talked about a lot on this podcast is financial repression and return of I. E. The extent to which governments might, in our great age of debt, demand that domestic investors bring their capital home to help out with either national infrastructure or investing in the domestic bond market to make it look less rubbish, et cetera. And we're now seeing something happening in Japan. Nothing set yet, but the Finance minister, Katayama San was speaking earlier this week about how one might encourage local investors, including Japan's whooping great government pension fund, to consider bringing money home and investing more in domestic assets. And it's interesting that this has shifted since 2014 or so when there was a much higher level of Japanese assets held inside Japan. And then under Abbasan there was a shift and assets started to flow abroad. And in one way that's been great. A very cheap yen has been brilliant for the Japanese exporters in the manufacturing sector. In an age when, you know, physical AI, robotics, et cetera, it's all been marvelous. But now there is talk about trying to bring some of that money home, which would be kind of interesting. And Deutsche bank have done a little blog on this, looking at what might happen and suggesting that at the maximum the amount of money that might be bought back would amount to about 10% of GDP which would be something of a game changer for the yen.
- [23:47]
John Stebik
Yeah and I think this really is worth paying attention to because I mean obviously the symmetry is that in 2012 as you say, that's when then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe kind of said right, well basically we need to do something about this and started a policy deliberately weakening the yen amongst other things. The yen was at its strongest then and as you say 2014 the GPIF the big pension fund started increased the amount of foreign assets that they could own. And so yeah, if they flip that around because it did have a big effect, they'll have a big effect in the opposite direction. There's obviously the concerns that the yen carry trade which is basically borrowing money in yen and investing it elsewhere. If that suddenly reverses then a whole load money could come out of various assets including hot tech stocks. But I think the other thing, and I don't know if this was in the Deutsche study or not, but they said that the most vulnerable asset was probably French sovereign bonds. That would be interesting to watch given that France, they're already vulnerable. Yeah, I mean France is the only reason that France is not on the front pages all the time in the way that Britain has been is because inflation is slightly lower in the Eurozone as a whole. But also France is effectively underwritten by the European Central bank which is Germany basically. And so that's kind of debt isn't being subject to quite the same pressures. But if this happens and you've also then got again a very panicky looking French political situation next year, I don't think it'd be going too far to say that you start getting worries about the kind of Eurozone again kind of erupting in the headlines and all the rest of it. So yeah, I think this suggestion is actually quite consequential and I'd imagine they will follow up on
- [25:51]
Merrin Sumset
is worth saying that as I think a lot of people have pointed out that that the government pension fund does not fall under the Ministry of Finance. So there's technically nothing to do with the Finance Minister Katayama but it all falls under the same thing in the end. I mean the pension fund falls under the Ministry of Health, labor and Welfare but it's all part of the same government, all part of the same system and we know that the government has influence over pretty much everything. I mean the bank of Japan is famously not quite independent, et cetera. So I don't think the fact that it's not directly Katayama san's responsibility would make a difference to this. Nor would the fact that the pension fund again has like all pension funds in the main so far, a fiduciary duty to seek the best returns. That doesn't necessarily make a long term difference to how it's invested in Japan.
- [26:41]
John Stebik
No. And they're also, they're able to. They aren't at the limit of their allocation either. Their official allocation. They can go higher even without changing anything overtly. So yeah, no, I'd be surprised if this doesn't end up being a turning point.
- [26:59]
Merrin Sumset
Turning point and maybe a turning point for global financial repression because it's not exactly the only place that is talking about repatriating capital. Has it been an ongoing conversation here trying to get pension funds to repatriate capital and invested in things of national interest in the UK and we hear of it in other countries as well. And it may just be that in an age of great public debt, capital can no longer be free.
- [27:21]
John Stebik
Yeah, well, it'll be interesting because I've sort of described this as a capital nudge and it'll be interesting to see. Well, when does it go from being a capital nudge to a capital control?
- [27:30]
Merrin Sumset
Yeah. Okay. Well this has been positive.
- [27:33]
John Stebik
Yes, as usual.
- [27:34]
Merrin Sumset
As usual.
- [27:35]
John Stebik
Your ray of sunshine for the week.
- [27:37]
Merrin Sumset
Yep, absolutely. Look, there is a ray of sunshine here and I'm gonna tell you about it, which is that it's nearly August, which means that it is nearly time for our fringe show all about Adam Smith and how marvelous he was at Panmere House. We will put the link to how to book tickets for that in the show notes as well. I will say they do sell out very, very quickly. So you will want to book your tickets now so that you are not the person calling me on the day begging for a ticket from my personal family allocation. Is that right, John?
- [28:08]
John Stebik
Absolutely, absolutely. Rarer than the last bitcoin.
- [28:14]
Merrin Sumset
Not rare at all. Bitcoins onwards, onwards. Oh, I will also say by the way that we have asked a lot of people on the podcast over the last few months about what they're read. And not just authors but non author, guess what books they're reading. And I've made a list of those for those of you who don't quite listen to the end of every podcast and they'll be in my newsletter this week. So if you want a roundup of the things that you should definitely be reading on the beach, do read my newsletter on Saturday. And of course do always read John's newsletter every day. Anything to add to that? John?
- [28:47]
John Stebik
No, that's great. I look forward to reading that one. I like seeing what other people are reading.
- [28:52]
Merrin Sumset
Yeah, well I tell you what, the one I really want to read is the one that Ed Cole from Mangrit recommended, the Final Fatal Adventure of Captain James Cook. The Wide Wide Sea anthem's absolutely brilliant. Damn, now I've given. I've given away the ending.
- [29:10]
John Stebik
Spoiler alert.
- [29:12]
Merrin Sumset
Spoiler alert. Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talks Money Markets wrap. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Also, be sure to follow me and John on X OR Twitter A JohnStepek. This episode was produced by Sama Saadi and Moses Andam. Questions and comments on this show and all our shows are always welcome. Our show email is merrinmoneylumberg.net.
- [29:46]
The Hartford Representative
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- [30:27]
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