Price Controls, Britain's Struggling Jobs Market, and the SpaceX IPO

Summary

Merryn Talks Money – May 22, 2026

Episode Theme:
A deep-dive into the current state of Britain’s struggling jobs market, the realities and pitfalls of price controls, and the potential impact of the anticipated SpaceX IPO—plus how all these intersect with markets, policy, and investing.

Guest Host: John Stepek, Senior Reporter and Money Distilled Author
Guest: Sam Unstead, Editor of the Markets Today Live blog

---

Overview

This episode, guest-hosted by John Stepek (in for Merryn Somerset Webb), is a candid, analysis-rich discussion with Sam Unstead. The conversation navigates the bleak UK jobs data, the confusion and potential unintended consequences around price controls and inflation policy, and assesses both the British and global market sentiment. It finishes with a sharp evaluation of the looming SpaceX IPO and other major tech listings, exploring what these mean for investors and the broader economy.

---

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. UK Jobs Market: Mixed Signals, Tough Headlines

[02:03–05:20]

• Recent Data Highlights:

  • Significant job losses (“pretty bad…quite a lot of jobs being lost,” – Sam, 02:30).
  • Sharp declines in both entry-level (retail) and upper-level (AI/tech) job vacancies.
  • “Hours worked in second jobs is a joint record high”—a “worrying sign…that things are looking a bit softer in the jobs market,” (Sam, 03:34).
  • Wage data: Private sector wage growth around 3.2%, effectively flat or declining relative to inflation. Construction sector wages down 0.6% year-on-year (nominal).

• Quote:

  “Every number you look at is through the floor.” — John Stepek, on construction sector, [04:11]

---

2. Inflation, Energy, and the Real Story Beneath the Headline

[04:20–06:02]

• Energy bills dropping due to quarterly price cap and government handouts; these artificially depress the headline inflation rate (“literally got price fixing” – John, 05:53).

• However, underlying inflation is distorted; petrol prices are up 16–17%, transport costs surge, and new employer taxes and minimum wages add to sectoral cost strains.

• Construction and retail particularly tough sectors.

• Quote:

  “For construction…huge supply chain issue. …These are jobs where the extra taxes on employers, minimum wage increases, everything like that has all come through too. So the costs…are also biting pretty hard.” – Sam, [05:20]

---

3. Price Controls: Political Reactions or Pragmatic Policy?

[06:02–08:34]

• UK government proposes more voluntary agreements on grocery prices (widely criticized by both hosts).

• The UK grocery sector is already hyper-competitive:

  “Can you think of a more competitive sector than food retail in the UK?” — John, [06:03] “No, no, no… The grocery sector in the UK is incredibly competitive.” — Sam, [06:18]

• Price controls seen as unworkable and perhaps counterproductive, risking making shortages worse by focusing on subsidizing demand instead of supply-side reforms.

• The real problem: UK’s long-standing supply constraints (energy, construction, regulatory hurdles).

• Memorable moment:

  “Instead of tackling all these things just comes down to subsidizing demand, making potential shortages even worse.” — John, [07:59]

• Government’s challenge: coping with external supply shocks, high bond yields, and limited domestic levers for action.

---

4. PMI Data: More Gloom for the Services Economy

[13:12–14:21]

• PMI figures for the week paint a bleak picture:
  • Manufacturing holds up only due to stockpiling ahead of price hikes; services (dominant sector) very weak.
  • Confidence battered by geopolitical risk (Iran conflict) and UK political uncertainty.
• “Almost every area of the PMI is pretty soft. …Looking at the inflation data…will shift over the course of the year, the picture is not that pleasant.” – Sam, [13:44-14:21]

---

5. Market Reaction: Stocks Shrug Off Home-Grown Woes

[14:21–16:20]

• Despite “ropey” economic data, equities—especially the FTSE 100—are largely unaffected.

  • FTSE 100’s international focus insulates it from UK-specific woes.
  • Banks’ strong positions help buffer impacts.
  • AI megatrend dominates sentiment, illustrated by Nvidia’s market-crushing results.

• Quote:

  “Nvidia quarterly revenue is higher than all but five FTSE 100 companies make annually…” — Sam, [15:42]

---

6. The SpaceX IPO (plus OpenAI & Anthropic): Mega-Listings & Market Risks

[16:20–19:38]

• The approaching SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs could introduce a “massive amount of new equity” to markets:

  “If all three of those were to list, it would effectively be like the S&P 500 doing a kind of bolt-on acquisition of the FTSE 100 and just chucking it on the side and becoming the S&P 600.” — Sam, [17:15]

• These are “epoch-defining companies”; they may bring volatility as the market digests new risk and unfamiliar business practices (e.g., SpaceX tying bonuses to building a Mars colony).
• OpenAI and Anthropic are “generationally important” — their financial disclosures could affect wider sentiment on the AI boom, which is crucial for parts of the global economy (South Korea, for instance).
• Risk: Should these companies’ finances disappoint, it “could certainly put a bit of a dent in things” (Sam, [19:38]).

---

7. Would You Buy SpaceX at the IPO?

[19:38–20:29]

• Sam’s answer: “No.” He expresses caution based on past IPO hype and the complexity (and “puff”) of prospectuses, citing the WeWork debacle.
• Notable for both the candor and the skepticism.

---

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On UK Construction:

  “Every number you look at is through the floor.” — John, [04:11]

• On UK Supply-Side Issues:

  “This is decades of plaque building up in the system…” — John, [09:41]

• On Competitiveness of UK Grocery:

  “The grocery sector in the UK is incredibly competitive… There is an extremely competitive market.” — Sam, [06:18]

• On SpaceX IPO Hype:

  “In their IPO filing, one of the targets…would be to create a 1 million person colony on Mars.” — Sam, [18:10]

• On Learning from IPOs:

  “I particularly remember…WeWork IPO…again, like a kind of epoch-defining company and everything just fell apart because their IPO was such a mess.” — Sam, [19:55]

---

Key Segment Timestamps

• UK jobs data analysis: 02:03–05:20
• Inflation & price controls segment: 05:20–08:34
• Policy and government constraints: 08:34–10:02
• PMI & market sentiment: 13:12–16:20
• AI, Nvidia & IPO buzz: 16:20–19:38
• SpaceX IPO verdict (Would you buy?): 19:38–20:29

---

Tone & Takeaways

• The tone is unvarnished and witty—candid skepticism runs throughout, especially when discussing government policy or IPO hype.
• Both hosts emphasize there are deep, structural issues in the UK economy which are not easily solved by tinkering with prices or subsidies.
• Market resilience persists—largely because international factors and tech megatrends outweigh local economic gloom, but cracks may show with mega-IPOs coming.
• Caution and critical thinking are urged for investors, with more pragmatic, longer-term solutions needed on the policy side.

---

“If you had the opportunity, would you buy SpaceX at the IPO?”
“No.”
— [19:47–19:55], Sam Unstead, on IPO skepticism

---

For more market insights, visit the Markets Today Live blog on Bloomberg.

Transcript

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Foreign.

[John Stepik]

Welcome to the Merton Talks Money Markets wrap. We'll be talking about the latest moves in the market this week and what's been driving them. I'm John Stepik, senior reporter and author of the Money Distilled newsletter. And filling in for Mern as she's off on holiday. And joining me in the London studio today for our market wrap is Sam Unstead, editor on the Markets Today Live blog, which I'm a regular, regular reader of, keeps me on the straight and narrow. Welcome to the show, Sam.

[Sam Unstead]

Thank you.

[John Stepik]

Thanks very much for joining us.

[Sam Unstead]

Thank you very much.

[John Stepik]

I mean, it's been quite a busy few weeks really with the UK and politics and all the rest of it. But one thing we got this week, which I thought was interesting, is all of the economic data that's come out, so the jobs and inflation. And today, as we're recording on Thursday, we've had the PMI as well. And it's actually been kind of a relief in a funny kind of way, because guilt markets have kind of come off a bit because of this.

[Sam Unstead]

Yes, let's take it chronologically, right. Over the course of the week, we had jobs data first, right? Pretty bad. It was pretty much across the board, quite a lot of jobs being lost. So I'm always a bit skeptical about the payroll employee number, because it's very, very prone to revision. But it was very high, it's like 100,000. So pretty significant. And there's a couple of other areas of it that are very soft. So vacancies have fallen a lot and they're getting hit at both ends of the income spectrum. So you're seeing entry level jobs. So the RET sector, for example, vacancies are falling loads there. So for. That's for kind of the lower income, you know, entry level gigs there.

[John Stepik]

And that's of course been driven up a lot in the past.

[Sam Unstead]

Exactly. And then at the other end of it, AI, you know, the other sector where vacancies are going down, a lot is in it. So both ends of here you're seeing these kind of squeezes happen. Second jobs, hours worked in second jobs is a joint record high. So all these kind of worrying signs starting to come through that things are looking a bit. A bit softer in the. In the jobs market.

[John Stepik]

Well, it's also in the wages, isn't it? Because if you're going to look at the wages, there's still some base effects from the public sector stuff, but now the private sector is rising about 3.2. It was, isn't it? Yeah. And so you're basically talking about wages being flat to falling in pretty much. And that's never great for consumption or for people's mood, apart from anything else. Yeah. But the other thing I thought was interesting was, and I don't. The job state is a bit ropey anyway and the ONS has admitted that. But construction sector wages are laid down. Yes. Like 0.6% year on year in nominal terms.

[Sam Unstead]

Exactly.

[John Stepik]

I find what's happening with the building sector in this country at the moment just actually quite staggering. Every number you look at is through the floor.

[Sam Unstead]

Yeah. I mean, that is the sector, if you're going to pick one out, that is going to be immediately impacted by what's going on around the rest of the world because the transport costs are going up and we can go on as well to inflation, which is the next report we got over the course of the week. You're seeing this come through. So the inflation report is a bit weird, right, because there was so many base effects and distortions in it that the headline rate goes down. But it's not really telling you the true story of what's going on underneath that, you know, petrol prices, 16, 17% for diesel and for petrol, very significant increase, you know, and that goes across everything. You know, transport costs go up Everything kind of goes up. For construction, you've got that in addition to a huge supply chain issue. And then in addition to that as well, what you just mentioned, you know, when it comes to, say, retail, the retail sector, construction is as well. These are jobs where the extra taxes on employers, minimum wage increases, everything like that has all come through too. So the costs in the construction sector are also biting pretty hard.

[John Stepik]

Yeah, it's pretty dramatic. I mean, and that sort of does take us on the inflation figures, because the other thing I thought was interesting, we both had a bit of a moan about. In fact, everyone's a bit of a moan about this. The idea that we should have this voluntary agreement to fix prices on groceries. Because one thing I thought was interesting about the inflation figures is that the reason it came in below the 3% is primarily because energy bills went down this month relative. And that's because we've got this quarterly price cap.

[Sam Unstead]

Yeah.

[John Stepik]

So it's actually pure. And also because the Chancellor giving 150 quid to the kind of poor household. So we actually have like literally got price fixing.

[Sam Unstead]

Yeah.

[John Stepik]

That has kept inflation to a surprisingly low level in theory, but of course it's going to spike later in the year. But now we're talking about having more price controls on one. What is arguably. I mean, can you think of more competitive sector than food retail in the uk?

[Sam Unstead]

No, no, no. I mean, John, you're sort of saying maybe banks, but I think even banks don't come. I mean, the grocery sector in the UK is incredibly competitive. I mean, they, if you live in this country, you see in their adverts, they are advertising against like, most of the time they're saying, we're matching, you know, Tesco, we're matching with Ordeal, same for Sainsbury's. Or, you know, all of them do the same thing. So there is an extremely competitive market. What they were talking about this sort of voluntary price. Well, the industry does that already, you know, voluntarily, if you like, because that. Because it is far more important for them to get people through the door than it is. You know, they will eat margin and they will do that really, until they. They absolutely can't.

[John Stepik]

Yeah.

[Sam Unstead]

We're recording this on the day that Walmart's results came out in the us, Right. The way that Walmart and Tesco and Sainsbury's operate is quite, you know, Walmart want volume, so they keep prices low, get people through the door. But they're saying today fuel costs are going up, you know, and they don't have this Big increase in labor costs that, you know, you know, Tesco is the biggest, one of, not the biggest private sector employer in the country. So huge increase in labor costs for them. There is only so much that they can keep those prices under control. But they do, you know, and you know, within that, within the food price inflation, you know, even when we have the spike in 2023 coming out of that spike again, they compete with each other really hard and food prices probably come down a little bit faster than they otherwise would because the competitiveness is so high. So yeah, you're mentioning that you and I both have sort of complained about this a little bit independently over the, over the course of the week. You know, if we were to continue doing that, I think our voices would get louder and more. Because it's such a sort of unworkable policy.

[John Stepik]

It's like, why, why make it. I mean, I guess part of the problem is that Britain's problems are largely supply side issues. Make it much harder to get oil in the North Sea, for example, or energy in general, then it needs to be. We make it much harder to build stuff than it needs to be. And these things are difficult issues. The building more so than the energy, that's more, I mean, I would say ideological, but that's, you know, another discussion. But instead tackling all these things just comes down to subsidiz in demand, making potential shortages even worse.

[Sam Unstead]

Yeah. Where I have a little bit of sympathy with the government is that their job is incredibly difficult because the external supply shock that you're seeing is so significant and so completely out of their control. And that's then coupled as well with a global shift in bond yields. We talked about, we've written a lot about gilt yields over the course of the last couple of weeks. You mentioned at the start the gilt yields have actually come down a bit over the course of this week. But the, a lot of that is influenced by things that are completely out of the control of the UK because we're an importing economy, because we don't have control over all of these areas of production. And so it is very hard in fairness to them to come up with anything to do again. We had today Rachel Reeves laying out a set of cost of living measures. And they're not needle movers, they're not going to change things very much because there really isn't an enormous amount that can be done. And what probably is needed again if maybe going to be a bit tougher, is that it's a bit more innovative thinking on how they could potentially support households. But the fact is you have an energy supply shop the like you're having now, there's not a huge amount that they can do.

[John Stepik]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I know. So I mean this is not this specific government's fault that we've ended up here. This is decades of plaque building up in the system basically and no one being able to tackle it.

[Sam Unstead]

Yes.

[John Stepik]

So I mean, yeah, this is just more the latest in a long line. This is not party political, this is just political.

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[John Stepik]

Today we got the PMI figures, which sort of again, just ladled on the misery a bit.

[Sam Unstead]

They're pretty bad, you know, and these

[John Stepik]

are snapshots of what's going on in manufacturing surveys.

[Sam Unstead]

So for the services in the uk, obviously is the dominant part of the economy. Manufacturing remains is growing. The reason for that, you know, again, bit idiosyncratic, you know, but you know, lots of orders being stocked up. You know, stockpiling of orders is kind of helping the manufacturing people try to

[John Stepik]

get ahead of future price increases and

[Sam Unstead]

that will come out as the year goes on. But the, the service is pretty poor. You know, everything you would not want to see is kind of there. Input costs rising a lot. Confidence, you know, is, is taking a hit, you know, partly because of, actually mostly because of the Iran war, a little bit also because of the political uncertainty you now have in the uk. So almost every area of the PMI is pretty soft. And in addition, adding that to the employment data early in the week, which was outright fairly weak, and then looking at the inflation data, which is a bit of a misnomer and will kind of shift over the course of the year, the picture is not that pleasant, John, to be honest.

[John Stepik]

So I suppose the funny thing then is for all of this kind of slightly ropey economic data, and it kind of looks as if we're going into a gentleman dive is possibly the right word. The stocks aren't that bothered. How much that do you put down to it being the fact that actually this data has then made it more likely that the bank of England won't hike interest rate.

[Sam Unstead]

Yeah, I think that that's been very helpful. That's certainly been very helpful in the bond market this week for gilt markets which had already. They've been elevated. Yields have been elevated quite a bit for the stock market. I mean, the first year, 100. Sort of written this on our blog a few times, sort of doesn't really care about the UK that much. You know, the vast majority of it is international. The part that does care has got bigger, which is banks. But even they as well are in such a good, strong kind of financial position that for the most part they can kind of skirt through a lot of the, the issues that say the war, you know, in the Middle east has brought up. And then, you know, if we're looking beyond the UK sort of stocks more generally, you know, this, the AI story is still very, very, very strong. And, you know, we had Nvidia results this week. You know, the world's most valuable company making an enormous amount of money.

[John Stepik]

Not expectations, not enough to.

[Sam Unstead]

Yeah, you know, often when you. I think when you look at Nvidia, the expectations are so high that when you look at the range of estimates, you kind of have to look at the one right at the top. And if they don't get past the one right at the top, then it's kind of a disappointment. But they are making an enormous amount of money. And I mean, we calculate, we were calculating yesterday that their quarterly revenue is higher than all but five FTSE 100 companies make annually. So it's an enormous amount of money. So that story has continued and there's no real sign that that momentum is slowing down all that much at the moment. So, yeah, stocks have kind of brushed most of it off.

[John Stepik]

Well, one thing I was going to ask you before we can wrap up. So today we had the SpaceX perspectives and obviously SpaceX is the big exciting IPO this year and we've got OpenAI and Anthropic as well coming. What are your thoughts on the idea that this big dollop of equity hitting the markets may be the thing that they find a bit hard to digest or the thing that knocks everyone well, maybe even a top of the market indicator, but certainly something that pushes back on the bull market.

[Sam Unstead]

So you've got three companies here who are. One of the things we wrote earlier today actually was that if you take the estimated value of the three companies and these estimates could change quite a bit. Over the. But where we are now, the Anthropic Plus SpaceX Plus OpenAI is more than the entire value of the FTSE 100. So if all three of those were to list, it would effectively be like the S&P 500 doing a kind of bolt on acquisition of the FTSE 100 and just chucking it on the side and becoming the S&P 600. The thing about them as well is that these are three companies that are kind of almost kind of epoch defining companies. So SpaceX, the space thing is much more long term and isn't quite as immediate as the AI story. But Anthropic and, and OpenAI are generationally important companies for the way that we're going to live our lives because they're really the two that are at the forefront of everything that's happening. And when you get companies like that list quite often, and there was an element of this in the SpaceX IPO as well, they can be a bit weird. Some of the stuff that's in there can be a bit different because these are companies that maybe don't really think about how they run themselves in the same way that a regular company does. In the SpaceX in their IPO filing. One of the targets for Elon Musk to be able to get an extra quite significant amount of money would be to create a 1 million person colony on Mars.

[John Stepik]

To be fair, if he did that, I can see if the valuation of SpaceX would justify itself if that is something that it can achieve.

[Sam Unstead]

But so when you're combining these companies that are huge, so say for example anthropics valued about $900 billion so it would immediately become one of the biggest listed companies in the world. You know, you, you add all of those into the market. It takes a little while maybe for people to decipher, you know, what do we do with this, like, you know, how do they run themselves? OpenAI has a kind of interesting structure. You know, Microsoft owns 27% of it. Then you've got the OpenAI Foundation. The inner workings of that might be quite interesting for people to read once a filing comes, you know, eventually and, and also, you know, these are the companies that are, is particularly OpenAI and Anthropic at the forefront of the thing that's powering everything in markets.

[John Stepik]

Yeah.

[Sam Unstead]

So if you get them, them come forward and actually their finances maybe don't look as fantastic as we initially think that they may and that then maybe threatens the investment that's going on with AI, which is powering economies all over the world. South Korea's economy right now really needs the AI boom to keep going. There is absolutely the possibility that as these three come in, you're getting, as you mentioned, a massive amount of new equity. And if there's confusion, if there's a sense of trepidation, it could certainly put a little bit of a dent in things.

[John Stepik]

So given the choice. Last question, end on not personal financial advice here, listeners, of course, if you had the opportunity, would you buy SpaceX at the IPO?

[Sam Unstead]

No. Okay. I wouldn't. But then, you know, I think when you're, I mean, I was a stock reporter for a long time.

[John Stepik]

Yeah.

[Sam Unstead]

And I still, you know, to an extent I still am. And when you read, you know, IPO prospectuses in particular, you know, there's a lot of kind of puff in them, you know, about, about what, you know, we can do. And I, I mean I particularly remember going back to WeWork, you know, the WeWork IPO, which was, you know, this company that was again, like a kind of epoch defining company and everything just fell apart because their IPO is with such a mess. So I wouldn't. But of course, you know, if you want to, you know, do. And obviously no financial advice whatsoever.

[John Stepik]

Well, no. Thanks very much, Sam. No, I really appreciate that. And thanks for coming. I appreciate and everyone, you should read the Markets Today blog daily on the Bloomberg website. Thanks for listening to this week's Merlin Talks, my debrief. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Also be sure to follow me on X Twitter on stepek. Sam, can we find you on Twitter or anywhere else?

[Sam Unstead]

Not really. You can find me on LinkedIn now and again. You and I going back and forth a little bit on LinkedIn.

[John Stepik]

See if you might every debate on LinkedIn, that's the place to go. This episode is produced by Summer Saadi production support and sound designed by Moses Andram. Questions and comments on the show and all our shows are always welcome. The show email is marinmoneyloomburg.net when you're

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