Merryn Talks Money: Silver’s Surge, Oil’s Bounce, London Flat Prices and the Quiet Gilt Rally

Podcast by Bloomberg
Date: January 16, 2026
Host: John Stepek (standing in for Merryn Somerset Webb)
Guest: Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion Columnist)

Episode Theme Overview

This episode is a weekly markets roundup focused on the latest trends and news driving UK and global markets. John Stepek and guest Marcus Ashworth discuss key topics including the ongoing drop in London flat prices, the boom in precious metals (particularly silver), oil’s recent uptick, and a quiet but significant rally in the UK government bond (gilt) market. The tone is analytical but conversational, mixing expert insights with practical advice for investors.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. London Flat Prices: Correction or Opportunity?

[01:03 – 07:58]

• London Flats Have Fallen Sharply: Marcus describes seeing a one-bedroom Fulham flat listed for £370,000—“a bargain” at first glance, but it turned out to be part of a tricky auction setup. This serves as a starting point to discuss the underlying reasons for falling prices in the London flat market.
  • “London flats are cheap, cheap for a reason.” (Marcus Ashworth, 01:45)
• Scale of Decline: London flat prices are down over 20% since the mid-2010s, correcting from a period of extreme outperformance, driven at the time by international (notably Russian) capital inflows.
• Complexity for Buyers: New regulations (such as the Renters Rights Act), ongoing leasehold and cladding issues, high service charges, and lenders’ reluctance to offer mortgages on certain types of properties all make investing in London flats more perilous.
  • “One in seven people selling a flat in London at the moment are doing it at a loss.” (Marcus Ashworth, 04:32)
  • “Don’t touch leasehold with a ten-foot barge pole.” (John Stepek, 06:44)
• First-Time Buyers: While prices are more reasonable, the quality of value is highly variable. Flats in terraced houses with freehold-like structures are less risky, but caution and thorough research are crucial.
• Wider National Trend: Across the UK, detached houses are outperforming terraced homes, which in turn are outperforming flats. The post-pandemic "move to space" trend lingers.

Memorable moment:
John’s pithy rule—“Don’t touch leasehold with a ten-foot barge pole.” (06:44)

2. Commodity Markets: Precious Metals & Oil

[07:58 – 13:26]

• Oil’s Rebound: Recent geopolitical risks (potential closure of Suez Canal, tensions with Iran) have sparked a rally. However, Marcus views it as a temporary “short squeeze” after a period during which everyone was betting prices would fall.
  • “When markets don’t go down and everyone’s expecting them to, what they’re going to do is reverse sharply and have a short squeeze.” (Marcus Ashworth, 08:14)
  • He doubts the rally will last unless a major geopolitical crisis erupts. His broader outlook: oil will likely “drift lower.”
• Silver’s Surge: Silver prices have jumped dramatically, even more than gold.
  • “We’ve obviously seen silver going through to the moon and beyond… Making gold look like a laggard.” (Marcus Ashworth, 09:35)
  • Cautionary perspective is supported by Cameron Crise’s research, showing that after such surges, silver historically falls sharply (often 50% within a year).
  • Marcus advises that both gold and silver are primarily speculative instruments, not fundamentally driven investments:
    • “This is a speculative tool... trading it for volatility. Please look at it in that context.” (10:57)
• Gold’s “Safe Asset” Status: Gold continues to attract buyers due to geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Russian reserves seized by the US), prompting even central banks in “semi-bad” countries to stockpile it.
  • “The only real way you can guarantee [getting your money out] is gold.” (Marcus Ashworth, 12:20)

3. Industrial Commodities and Inflation Risks

[13:26 – 16:36]

• Industrial Metals (Copper, Nickel): Demand is robust as the US and Asian economies (including China, Japan, and Korea) grow strongly. UK lags behind (“handbrake nailed to the floor”).
• Commodities & Inflation: Marcus isn’t convinced that rising commodity prices will significantly raise inflation. US inflation is robust, but the UK and Europe face notable disinflation thanks in part to cheap Chinese exports.
  • Food inflation in the UK is more about higher minimum wages and delivery costs than actual food prices.
• Central Banks: Post-pandemic policy responses still impact markets, but the general trend in Marcus’ view is for inflation to keep underperforming expectations in Europe and the UK. The US picture is less clear due to stronger economic momentum.

4. The Quiet Gilt Rally: UK Bonds in the Spotlight

[16:36 – 23:34]

• Gilt Yields Have Dropped: UK government bond yields are at their lowest since 2024, representing a significant bull market in gilts. This is a sharp reversal from the turmoil following Liz Truss’s budget (“absolutely awful politics”).
  • “Gilts are at the lowest yield for over a year.” (Marcus Ashworth, 17:00)
• Treasury Strategy: The UK is issuing more short-term government IOUs (T-bills, at much lower yields) and fewer long-term or index-linked gilts, reducing the government’s cost of borrowing.
  • “This is a wheeze. The real reason... is to lower the cost of the £110 billion a year that we pay in debt interest.” (Marcus Ashworth, 19:43)
  • Potential upside for retail investors, as new rules will soon let them buy corporate bonds in smaller increments and maybe T-bills as well.
• Risks (“Rollover Risk”): Issuing shorter-term debt increases exposure to short-term interest rate moves, but the UK’s average debt maturity remains much longer than global peers (13 years vs. the US at 7, Germany at 8).
• Market Structure: The move should increase liquidity but must be balanced to avoid starving longer-dated markets (necessary for corporate bond issuance).
  • “We have to be careful that we're not doing too much of one thing and leaving ourselves exposed.” (22:31)

Notable Quotes and Timestamps

On London Flats:

• “London flats are cheap, cheap for a reason.” (Marcus Ashworth, 01:45)
• “One in seven people selling a flat in London at the moment are doing it at a loss.” (Marcus Ashworth, 04:32)
• “Don’t touch leasehold with a ten-foot barge pole.” (John Stepek, 06:44)

On Commodities and Speculation:

• “Silver does have industrial uses more than gold has... but beyond that, [they] are speculative tools... please look at it in that context.” (Marcus Ashworth, 10:33)
• “The only real way you can guarantee [getting your money out] is gold.” (Marcus Ashworth, 12:20)

On Gilt Market Moves:

• “Gilts are at the lowest yield for over a year.” (Marcus Ashworth, 17:00)
• “This is a wheeze. The real reason... is to lower the cost of the £110 billion a year that we pay in debt interest.” (Marcus Ashworth, 19:43)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:03 – 07:58: London flat prices, leasing/ownership risks, national property trends
• 07:58 – 13:26: Silver and gold rally, oil's bounce, historical context, risk warnings
• 13:26 – 16:36: Wider commodity markets, inflation impacts, UK vs. US/Asia growth
• 16:36 – 23:34: The gilt (UK government bond) rally, Treasury strategy shift, retail access, risks
• Notable deep-dive - Gilt market structure and risks: 18:19 – 22:31

Summary & Tone

The discussion is pragmatic, sceptical of hype (especially around short-term commodity rallies), and anchored in structural and policy changes that shape investment opportunities and risks. The tone is conversational, dotted with humor (“never be too cynical here at Merryn Talks Money”), and provides actionable insights for savers and investors considering UK property, commodities, or gilts.

For more content like this, or past discussions about UK home buying, search for previous series in your podcast app of choice.
Gold, silver – treat as speculative bets; London property – bargains come with pitfalls; Gilts – bull run is policy-driven, watch for hidden risks.