SpaceX Emergency Podcast: FOMO is Not an Investment Strategy

Summary

Merryn Talks Money: SpaceX Emergency Podcast—FOMO is Not an Investment Strategy

Date: June 9, 2026
Host: Merryn Somerset Webb (Bloomberg senior columnist)
Guest: John Stepek (Bloomberg senior reporter, Money Distilled newsletter author)

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Episode Overview

This special “emergency” instalment tackles the high anticipation, confusion, and frenzy swirling around the SpaceX IPO—why everyone seems desperate to take part, whether that’s wise, and what this colossal listing means for individual investors, markets, and so-called “passive” investing. Hosts Merryn and John bring their trademark blend of humor and sharp skepticism, dissecting the FOMO-driven rush for SpaceX shares and highlighting broader lessons about IPOs, index investing, and tech market concentration.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The SpaceX IPO Frenzy—And FOMO in Action

[02:13-03:16]

• Merryn admits to giving in to FOMO: She applied for SpaceX shares through Hargreaves Lansdown, having read all the disclaimers about risks and lack of guarantees. Despite warnings, “I’ve done it anyway. ... I just want to be involved.”
• Quoting Anna MacDonald (Hargreaves Lansdown CIO): “FOMO is not an investment strategy.”
• Accessibility: Applying for shares is “far too easy,” taking “about 20 seconds.” But investors won’t know pricing or allocation until after the IPO.

“I have sent in my application for SpaceX shares ... I know I’ve used Hargreaves Lansdown ... And you know what? I’ve done it anyway. ... FOMO is not an investment strategy, but, you know, maybe it is.”
—Merryn ([02:20], [03:10])

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2. Can You Value a Company Like SpaceX?

[04:07–05:43]

• Market dominance: SpaceX “absolutely dominates the launch business ... did 161 of 199 US space launches last year.”
• Revenue reality: The money comes mostly from Starlink, not launches; revenues from projects like "X" (formerly Twitter) and XAI/Grok are more speculative.
• Valuation ranges vary wildly:
  • Morningstar: ~$780B (about half what Musk seeks)
  • Aswath Damodaran (valuation expert): $1.25–$1.35T, still “a lot more expensive than that.”
  • John: “This isn’t something that you would buy now based on the fundamentals.”

“It’s impossible to value companies like this. The valuation rests on forecasts made out over 5, 10, 15 years.”
—Merryn ([04:20])

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3. Passive Investing—Is It Really Passive Anymore?

[06:51–09:46]

• Index inclusion dilemma: S&P 500 will not include SpaceX right away; Nasdaq will. This creates a true “bifurcation” for investors—meaning not all passive US trackers are created equal.
• No longer autopilot: Whether or not to own SpaceX is now an “active” choice for investors, even in index funds.

“There is no such thing as a passive investment ... you are effectively making quite a major active choice.”
—Merryn ([07:48–09:46])

• Implication: Investors need to look under the hood of their ETFs to know what they’re actually getting (or missing).

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4. The Great Tech IPO Wave & Market Concentration

[12:28–14:38]

• More mega-IPOs looming: Not just SpaceX—Anthropic, OpenAI, Stripe, and others are lining up.
• Portfolio concentration risk: If all these IPOs go through and are included, “the top 10 companies [in the S&P 500] could be pushing 50% of the index. ... That is new and terrifying.”
• Comparison: South Korea’s KOSPI is volatile due to high concentration (50–60% in two chipmakers); the U.S. could head the same way with big tech.

“If you’ve got a passive ETF on the S&P 500, it’s going to be even more concentrated than before ... top 10 companies taking out, pushing 50% of the index, which really, really is new and terrifying.”
—Merryn ([12:28])

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5. IPO Supply vs. Market Cash—What Happens Next?

[14:38–16:20]

• Sudden increase in IPOs/equity supply after years of “de-equitization” (falling number of listed shares):
  • Is there enough cash to absorb these gigantic offerings?
  • Early signs of investors shifting funds from other markets or sectors to make room for new tech IPOs.
• Possible rotation: Investors might pull out of “old” tech to buy “new” tech; could increase volatility and risk.

“Is there actually enough cash to absorb it all? ... There’s a lot going on here. It’s very hard to see exactly how it’s going to play out.”
—Merryn ([14:38])

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6. Insider Lockups & When “Paper Millionaires” Cash Out

[17:25–18:12]

• Key issue: When are insiders (employees, pre-IPO investors) allowed to sell?
• SpaceX lockups: Generally shorter than usual—some expire September to December 2026, meaning more shares could hit the market soon.
• Potential for volatility: Staggered selling (“dribs and drabs” as John says, possibly understating the risk).

“As soon as that lockup is done, I’m pressing sell on my Hargreaves Lansdowne account.”
—John ([16:57])

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7. Should Individual Investors Even Bother with IPOs?

[19:35–20:52]

• Data from Brent Donnelly (Spectra Markets): Of the largest IPOs in the last 20 years, every single one saw a minimum drop of 20% within a year of IPO. The biggest drop was 90% for Robinhood.
• Lesson: “You got a better opportunity somewhere in the next 12 months to buy it.”

“Every single one of them had gone lower ... after IPO. The minimum kind of drop was 20% and the maximum drop was 90%...”
—John ([19:35])

• Advice: Most platforms now offer clear educational content. New investors especially should “read around it, think about it quite a lot, and do remember ... it’s mostly, in fact, I’m going to say, mostly always better to have a diversified portfolio than not.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Merryn on getting swept up:

  “I’ve done it because I just want to be involved.” ([03:10])

• John on IPO prospects:

  “This isn’t something you would buy now based on the fundamentals. ... It’s basically based on the idea they’re going to be able to hype this up so much.” ([05:43])

• On passive investing’s illusion:

  “It’s very clear now that there is no such thing as a passive investment.” —John ([08:04])

• On IPO timing:

  “Classic top of the market behavior ... if you did look back in like five years’ time and say, ‘Oh yeah, that was the top of the market, because everyone was rushing to get out fast before things tipped over.’” —John ([16:20])

• On tech concentration anxiety:

  “Top 10 companies taking out, pushing 50% of the index ... really, really is new and terrifying.” —Merryn ([12:28])

• On lockup expiries:

  “For a prolonged period, certainly.” —John ([18:07])
  “Dribs and drabs might be minimalizing a little.” —Merryn ([18:08])

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Crucial Timestamps

• [02:13] Merryn confesses her own FOMO—applying for SpaceX shares.
• [04:07] Discussion of SpaceX’s actual business and valuation challenges.
• [06:51] Dilemma of passive investing and index bifurcation.
• [12:28] The threat of mega IPOs making indices dangerously concentrated.
• [14:38] Concerns about market liquidity and rotation ahead of multiple tech IPOs.
• [17:25] Examination of insider lockup periods and employee exits.
• [19:35] The statistical lesson: IPOs nearly always give you a second chance at a better price.

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Closing Advice

• Diversify, educate, and beware FOMO:
  Merryn and John repeatedly caution new and seasoned investors about the risks of chasing hyped IPOs for fear of missing out. Do your homework, utilize platform resources, and remember the power of diversification.

“It’s mostly, in fact, I’m going to say, mostly always better to have a diversified portfolio than not to have a diversified portfolio.”
—Merryn ([19:23])

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This episode delivers an entertaining, realistic tour of the risks, opportunities, and psychological pitfalls surrounding the SpaceX IPO and the broader tech stock mania. Whether you’re tempted to buy or just watching on the sidelines, Merryn and John give clear-eyed context to help you avoid the FOMO trap and stick to solid investing principles.

Transcript

[Investment Trust Representative]

We don't just invest in cutting edge companies. We look at companies with a history of steady growth and companies whose growth cycle has come round again. Because in the real world you have to look at growth in three dimensions. Monks Investment Trust okay, before we get

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[Maren Sums]

Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news.

[Microsoft Windows 11 Pro Promoter]

Foreign.

[Maren Sums]

Welcome to another emergency episode of the Marin Talks Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week and what is driving them. I am Maren Sums, at Web Editor at Large for Bloomberg UK wealth.

[John Stevik]

And I'm John Stevik, senior reporter for Bloomberg and author of the Money Distilled newsletter.

[Maren Sums]

John, the reason for this podcast we need emergency.

[John Stevik]

I don't know if it's an emergency.

[Maren Sums]

It's an emergency. And listen, I'm actually not going to tell people what this emergency podcast is about quite yet. I'm gonna do it another way. I'm going to say to you, John, what do you think I did five minutes before I pressed the button to log on to chat to you? What do you think I did?

[John Stevik]

Did you press the bat signal for an emergency podcast for the Mem Talks Money Show?

[Maren Sums]

I don't know why you can't guess this. Because I did the same thing as everybody across the country is doing today and will do tomorrow if they don't leave it too late. I have sent in my application for speaking SpaceX shares.

[John Stevik]

Excellent. That's what I like to hear.

[Maren Sums]

I know I've used hargreaves Lands down and I've very carefully read all the stuff I've read. The bit about is The Is the SpaceX IPO right for you? I'm none the wiser. By the time I finish reading that, I've read the bit about, you know, my W8BN form, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And I've read the bit how there are lots of risks and I might not make any money and indeed I might lose all my money. And you know what? I've done it anyway. And I've done it because I just want to be involved. I mean, I got. I spoke to Anna MacDonald, who is the, the CIO head of investment at Hargreaves Lansdowne earlier, and she said very firmly, she's like, FOMO is not an investment strategy, but, you know, I'm playing for the minimum. Maybe it is.

[John Stevik]

Well, well, so. So that's a resounding buy recommendation.

[Maren Sums]

No, it absolutely. It absolutely is not a resounding buy recommendation. What is.

[John Stevik]

This is for the purposes of journalistic.

[Maren Sums]

This is for the purposes of journalistic integrity.

[John Stevik]

We don't like to talk about anything we haven't tried ourselves.

[Microsoft Windows 11 Pro Promoter]

No.

[Maren Sums]

And also I very carefully bought Bitcoin, so I could say that I was participating. And may I say, you did not. And I'm also getting the impression from you that you have not yet applied for your SpaceX shares.

[John Stevik]

I feel I would have a few more hoops to jump through, so I probably won't. But yeah, I think that it's good to see how the actual admin side of these things works for. Definitely.

[Maren Sums]

I mean, I'm afraid it's too easy.

[John Stevik]

It's far too easy. It's quite simple, isn't.

[Maren Sums]

Takes about 20 seconds. So if you do want them, you know, you can just go get them. All the big platforms in the UK and in the US have a. Have a way for you to apply for SpaceX shares. Now, you won't know how many shares you're going to get. You won't even know the price until they hit your portfolio on Friday morning. So, I mean, I do think that that is a strange thing for anyone to do. It's impossible to value companies like this. The valuation rests on forecasts made out over 5, 10, 15 years. They rest on the revenues for SpaceX coming not so much from its space business, which is of course spectacular, by the way. Spectacular. It absolutely dominates the launch business in the US and hence globally. The statistic on that I saw there were 199 space launches licensed in the US last year and SpaceX did 161 of them. So Q 80% plus absolutely dominate that market. And then they've got Starlink, which we're using right now, by the way, which is the bit 9000 satellites there that's the bit that actually brings in the money. Right. Not enough money, but money. And then there's Twitter X, which of course is our natural home. You and I. You're better on it than I am. And then of course there's Xai, which is the Grok chatbot. So what we're being asked to believe now is that this is not a space company so much as an AI company. And the combination of space and AI is the magic. You can have data centers in space, solar powered, don't need to worry about all that pesky cooling and infrastructure. And this is it. That's what we're being asked to buy into. Right?

[John Stevik]

Yeah. I mean, it's a lot of hope, basically, which has kind of traditionally been what Elon Musk trades in. I mean, I was having a look at a couple of valuations from relatively sensible people this morning and I mean, it varies a lot. I mean, Morningstar put out a valuation where they said they reckon it is worth about 780 billion, which is about half of what Elon's looking for. Whereas Azwa de Moderan, who is an excellent kind of analyst in the States, he's a very clever guy. I would say he's pretty good at valuing these blue sky companies because he's quite open minded. But he's also not, not stupid. And he put about one and a quarter trillion to maybe 1.35 trillion on as a sort of feasible kind of thing. But obviously he's saying, but it's still a lot more expensive than that, so it's more. He would probably wait until it had, you know, dropped a bit after the IPO and then he would maybe consider it. But I think that, I mean, I think a. That shows you that this isn't something that you would buy now based on the fundamentals. Because. Based on.

[Maren Sums]

Now you tell me.

[John Stevik]

Well, I know, I know, man. You see, you should have phoned me before you make these kinds of decisions. Come on. No, but. So, yeah, you can't do it based on the fundamentals. It's basically based on the idea that they're going to be able to hype this up so much. And to be fair, they've got almost every investment bank and, you know, in the US kind of working on the deal. Most of the indices have essentially agreed that they'll take SpaceX, but with a notable exception of S and P, which is, I think it's quite a big deal and actually quite an interesting thing for passive investing overall, because that's going to represent a Real kind of bifurcation. It's a real decision point for you now, whether you buy a passive US tracker that doesn't have SpaceX in it or one that does. And also SpaceX isn't the only one. There's quite a few big iPads.

[Maren Sums]

Brings us back, John, doesn't it, to that whole question that we've been asking, is there such a thing as a passive investment? And of course there isn't. This is. Now, even if you're buying something that supposedly tracks the S and P, you are effectively making quite a major active choice.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, I think that's really interesting because the other day I was chatting to your colleague Sam Winstead while you were out the other day about this kind of IPO. We were saying, oh, I wonder if SpaceX might break the passive market. And in a way, I think this is actually how it breaks. It is very clear now that there is no such thing as a passive investment. But this has really kind of hung a label on the fact that if you buy the S and P tracker, you're getting a very different and essentially a portfolio with a certain layer of active management on it. To be clear, I approve of S&P's decision. I think it's the correct decision. I think the idea that you should have to have a year or so of actually being a listed company, even if you're a huge one, makes a lot of sense. But at the end of the day, it's their act of choice. You can equally rationalize, as the NASDAQ presumably does that. Well, actually this is a massive stock. It's significant. Investors will want it in their portfolios.

[Maren Sums]

Yeah, you don't need your portfolio not represent the market if you don't have. Have it in.

[John Stevik]

Yeah. So that's the argument.

[Maren Sums]

You can make both arguments, can't you?

[John Stevik]

Yeah, and. But that's the point. So now it's bifurcated. So, you know, you can't. If you say to someone, oh, I'm investing passively, well, which type of passive are you choosing? And I think that's a. That's a really. Well, it's interesting, beyond a philosophical level, it does mean. No, you have to think about where your money's going in a way that perhaps you can have. Didn't want to, or, you know, you thought it was just on autopilot.

[Maren Sums]

I suppose that's one thing that we need to worry about.

[Investment Trust Representative]

We don't just invest in cutting edge companies. We look at companies with a history of steady growth and companies whose growth cycle has come round again because in the real world you have to look at growth in three dimensions. Monk's Investment Trust and Pause really quick

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[Maren Sums]

And then we need to worry about not just this IPO but the other mega IPOs that are coming anthropic, open AI, et cetera. And the extent that they will have both on the market as a whole and on passive because suddenly you're going to have even more concentrated portfolios if you've got a passive ETF on the S&P 500. It's going to be even more concentrated than it was before. I saw some of that. Assuming they all get away as they intend to get away, you're going to end up with the top 10 companies taking out pushing 50% of the index, which really, really is new and terrifying. Yeah.

[John Stevik]

And I mean when you think about it. So the most volatile index this year has been South Korean Cosby Index. The cost be dropped about 9% on this morning as we're recording this on Monday. And that's because everyone was freaking out about the US Possibly raising interest rates because the kind of jobs figures were better than expected. But that index is about 50, 60% is two chip makers. But if you're talking like the US which obviously is a much more globally significant index, having the top 10amounting to about 60, 50, 60%, I mean, you are starting to get on for the kind of concentration that leads to the kind of volatility that we're seeing in the Cosby index. So again, I think that's a pretty interesting side effect. And I think this is also, I don't know, this is before we look at the fact that the hyperscalers, as in basically the magnificent. It's not quite the Magnificent seven, but all the big tech companies are now. I said, well, Google or Alphabet rather is looking to raise 85 billion in new shares from next quarter to spend on investing in AI. And then there was a rumor that weekend that Facebook owner Meta is hoping to do the same thing. So if they're all flooding the market with equity issuance as well, you've got to think that part of the reason that markets have gone up so much is because they've been getting smaller. But now we're actually.

[Maren Sums]

That's changing de equitization. For years we've been saying supply is falling, demand is rising, and that's one of the things pushing the market up. And now suddenly we have this insanely huge influx of IPOs and other issuances. Is there really enough cash to absorb all this? And so that's your first question. Is there actually enough cash to absorb it at all? Is the volatility that we're already seeing. You talked about the concerns about US Rates, et cetera, but there's also a suggestion that what you're seeing is people beginning to pull some cash out of other markets in order to have it ready for the big IPOs. So you begin to see perhaps a rotation as well from inside technology, from Already listed companies to companies that are about to be listed, et cetera. There's a lot going on here. It's very hard to see exactly how it's going to play out over the next couple of weeks.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, I mean, I suppose there's a sense because actually another tech company put this IPO docs out this morning. The one is Bending Spoons, which is not so well known, but it owns things like Evernote and AOL and some old sort of Internet properties that it now basically just makes money from, sort of subscription type thing. I think it's the biggest holding in the Shehalion Billy Gifford Private Capital Private

[Maren Sums]

Assets Fund, which also has SpaceX, doesn't it?

[John Stevik]

Yeah, it's also got SpaceX and I think it's got a bit of anthropic as well and stripe a lot of the interesting ones that are about to go public at some point. But the point is there's kind of a sense that they're all going, oh, we need to get in here before all the money's gone.

[Maren Sums]

Well, you want to get in quickly, don't you? Before everyone got their reserves.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, I. And you do wonder. It's like, well, this is kind. This is again, classic top of the market behavior. Even though, you know, you kind of hesitate to say it because you don't want people who say, okay, better, I'll go to cash. And then everything just keeps going up. But the point is, if you did look back in like five years time and say, oh yeah, that was the top of the market because everyone was rushing to get out fast before things tipped over. So this is sort of like classic toppy behavior.

[Maren Sums]

Yeah, yeah. Well, as we say, your purchases, their exit.

[John Stevik]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, a lot of these people clearly though, they've been sitting on millions and millions of dollars. And certainly if it was me and I was like, employee number whatever, 12 at SpaceX, I've been sitting there on generational wealth and I'm about to have the chance to get out. I'm not going to carry on staying there. As soon as that lockup is done, I'm pressing sell on my Harkness Lansdowne account.

[Maren Sums]

And crucially, the key question then is when do the lookups end for insiders? For SpaceX employees? They're shorter than usual, aren't they? So I think they'll be coming up towards the end of the year, September through December.

[John Stevik]

I think there's quite a few different stages, I think. I mean, like Elon Musk, I don't think Obviously, I think he's basically got to keep his for a long time, but I think that it's six months for most of the other lockups. And then I think there's also. There's like, family and friends who I don't think of getting a lockup at all. I need to kind of read around it a bit more closely. But. But there's definitely. There's going to be dribs and drabs of this hitting the market.

[Maren Sums]

Yeah.

[John Stevik]

For a prolonged period, certainly.

[Maren Sums]

I'd say dribs and drabs might be minimalizing a little.

[John Stevik]

John. I don't like to sensationalize these things.

[Maren Sums]

No, no, no.

[John Stevik]

You know that obviously.

[Maren Sums]

Absolutely. Anyway, so we will see. But everyone, Everyone can. Can know that I will be holding. I don't know. Let's see what I get. Right. This is exciting. We'll let you know on Twitter on Friday how. How much SpaceX makes it into to my portfolio. And then I'll be able to either mock John because I'm richer than him, or he'll be able to mock me because they fall 30% on the day and I'm poorer than him, because that's how this podcast works. I will just say before we finish, John, that, you know, I did as I say, I spoke to Anna McDonald at Hargraves Lansdowne about this earlier, and as she pointed out, FOMO is not an investment strategy. And, you know, they have been very clear about their messaging. And I think all the platforms. All the platforms have. So if you go and look at any of the platforms where you're thinking about buying, there's a lot of educational content on all the platforms to try and help you work your way around it. And if you are interested in it, particularly if you are a new investor, because I do think this is the kind of IPA that might start bringing in some people who think, well, I've never invested before, but this is so exciting, I've got to have a piece of it. If you are really important that you read around it, think about it quite a lot and do remember that it's mostly, in fact, I'm going to say mostly always better to have a diversified portfolio than not to have a diversified portfolio. Is that fair?

[John Stevik]

No, definitely. And actually, there's one statistic that I wouldn't mind can I mentioning before we go. There was an interesting table I saw from Brent Donnelly at Spectra Markets, and he's kind of like picked up on this list that someone else had done, which was the largest IPOs of the last 20 years. So like a bit, I think there were about 30 odds of them in the list. And he looked at the price at which they closed at on the IPO day and then he looked at what was the maximum drawdown within a year. So what was the biggest drop at any point from that? And every single one of them had gone lower at least at some point during that next 12 months. And the minimum kind of drop was 20% and the maximum drop was 90%. And the 90% was actually for Robinhood, the American investment platform. And obviously that's very successful now and it's trading much, much higher than its IPO price. But the point is for every single one of these IPOs, you got a better opportunity somewhere within the next 12 to buy it. So I think that's the other thing you remember is like frequently IPOs might pop on the day, but then they quite often kind of retreat again quite quickly by the sounds of it.

[Maren Sums]

Okay, thank you, John. Good point.

[John Stevik]

You're very welcome. So you better sell better sale on tv.

[Maren Sums]

Too late for me now. Too late for me. Thanks for listening to this week's Marion Talks Money Debrief. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, also be sure to find Follow me and John on X or Twitter Ernesw and johnstepek. This episode was produced by Summer Society. Production support and sound design by Moses Andam. Questions and comments in this show and all our shows are always welcome. Our show email is merrinmoneylumberg.net and we particularly like to hear from you if you, like me, have decided to have a little SpaceX in your portfolio.

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