The Contrarian Case for London Real Estate After a Decade of Stagnation

Summary

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Merryn Talks Money — The Contrarian Case for London Real Estate After a Decade of Stagnation

Podcast: Merryn Talks Money (Bloomberg)
Host: Merryn Somerset Webb
Guests: John Stepek (Senior Reporter & Money Digital Author), Daniel Austin (CEO & Co-Founder, ASK Partners, London property expert)
Date: April 15, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the realities and prospects of the London (and broader UK) property market, with Merryn Somerset Webb leading a forthright and data-heavy discussion alongside Bloomberg’s John Stepek and property financier Daniel Austin. Despite headlines of a slumping UK housing market, the trio unpacks 20 years of house price data, identifies reasons behind stagnation, and debates whether now could represent an underappreciated contrarian buying opportunity—especially in London’s prime real estate sector.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. UK Property Market in Context

• Numerous gloomy headlines in the media describe the UK housing market as “slumping”, with collapsing chains, fallen prices, and decreased confidence (03:39).
• Over the past 10 years, UK property prices have generally failed to keep up with inflation across all regions, including London.

“UK property prices have fallen in inflation adjusted terms over the last 10 years, which to a lot of people I think will be a very shocking number.”
— Merryn Somerset Webb [04:30]

• Greater London: Only up 18.3% in 10 years versus 39% inflation (04:30).
• Other regions: Outer Southeast: 31%; Northeast/Midlands: 24-25%. All below inflation.

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2. A 20-Year Perspective

• Stretching the horizon back to 20 years tells a marginally better story.
• 20-year UK inflation: 75%.
  • London: Prices have increased 120% (significantly above inflation).
  • Other regions: Only Southeast just about kept pace (79% vs. 75% inflation); Midlands, Southwest, Scotland, etc., have not risen in real terms (06:10–07:29).

“If you bought your London house in 2006, you do know that you haven’t actually lost money in real time. So that’s nice. And it’s kind of not true in most other places.”
— Merryn Somerset Webb [06:19]

• Growth largely attributable to the 2010–2020 quantitative easing period (05:45).

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3. Why So Negative?

• Political risk and new taxes have further discouraged investment, especially in the buy-to-let sector:
  • Stamp duty increases, taxes on second homes, stricter landlord regulations, and speculation about even more punitive future policies.
  • Chain sales collapsing as mortgage rates rise and buyers’ affordability shrinks (08:00–09:13).
• Interest Rates:
  • Early 2026: hopes for a rebound as rates began to fall… but the Iran war spiked rate expectations back up (09:18–11:04).
  • Two-year fixed mortgage rates rose sharply from ~3.6% to ~4.8% since February 2026.

“At the start of this year it looked as if things were ripe for a recovery... But... interest rate expectations have gone back up again.”
— John Stepek [09:18]

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4. Policy Headwinds & Structural Challenges

• New landlord and rental policies (e.g., right to buy, high second home council tax, renters’ reform bill), risk freezing movement in the market and deterring both buyers and sellers (11:04–12:19).
• Rent controls discussed and quickly dismissed—overwhelming evidence shows they don't work (12:06–12:19).
• Stamp duty today is seen as a major barrier to homebuyers’ mobility, especially in prime/central London (14:05–14:29).

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5. The London Exception (and Even Its Limits)

• London is not immune from malaise, but prime central real estate continues to see exceptional deals.
  • “Record pricing” for standout homes:
    • Nick Candy’s house: £260m
    • St John's Wood: £40m
    • Notting Hill: record per-square-foot prices (16:24).
  • Investors still see London as a unique store of value and a global safe haven, especially amid geopolitical instability.

“People are still paying full prices for the best of the best... London will always be London.”
— Daniel Austin [16:24]

• Super-prime segment sees less “panic selling”—most owners absorb paper losses rather than crystallize them (18:08).
• New-build investors and buy-to-let landlords fair much worse and are more exposed to cash-flow and regulatory risks.

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6. Shifting Demand & Generational Change

• Homeownership is less of a millstone for young people today—more transience, less rootedness; a departure from the Thatcher-era “property ladder” mentality (13:20–14:05).
• Sky-high stamp duty now locks owners in, encouraging renovation over moving (14:05–14:29).

“Everyone’s locked in their own homes. We’re all kind of trapped now. So it’s just the way it is.”
— Daniel Austin [14:29]

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7. Geopolitical (and Psychological) Tailwinds?

• London’s reputation—a “safer” city compared to volatility in the Middle East—may buoy rental demand and restaurant, entertainment, and service sectors (15:04–16:24).
• Notably, some expats and international capital are tentatively returning, rebalancing the effect of places like Dubai luring away wealthy Londoners.

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8. The Non-Dom Effect

• Questioned whether the flood of “non-doms” (non-domiciled residents) selling up has run its course. Daniel believes this has “worked its way through the system” but notes little panic-selling—losses are largely paper for super-prime owners (17:59–18:39).

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9. Supply, Demand … And What Counts as Demand?

• London’s fundamental “pent-up demand” remains—the UK is a small, populous island—but as Merryn sharply notes, only demand-with-money counts for market clearing (19:32–20:07).

“Pent up demand is people who want something that they can’t afford. Wanting something is not economic demand.”
— Merryn Somerset Webb [20:07]

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10. Policy Wishlist and Contrarian Thinking

• Daniel floated that a cut to stamp duty would instantly stimulate the market—though it seems unlikely under current politics (20:43).
• If forced to invest now, Daniel and John would choose central London, banking on any possible return of global capital as a catalyst for recovery (21:31–23:06).
• The traditional advantage of London—its global “superstar” city status and reputation as safe for foreign capital—is under threat due to hostile tax and property policies.

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11. Is Now the Time to Buy?

• For trophy homes and super-prime property: Now could be an historic opportunity, if you can stomach the risk and have the means.
• Both guests urge caution—whatever rebound awaits will likely require a change in government to something more “center-right” (23:43–24:24).

“If you’re brave enough and can unlock the opportunities, now’s the time. Right? Because if you got a center, center right government elected in the UK in 2029, I think you’d see an unbelievable bull market... But it’s a big risk.”
— Daniel Austin [23:43–24:22]

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Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the illusion of property as a pension:
  • “All the people who turn off in the back of the personal finance sections of the newspapers saying that property is their pension. It literally isn’t.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb [07:29]
• On why homeownership is less compelling:
  • “Younger people are more transient... homeownership isn’t the thing it was when Thatcher got everyone very excited about it in the ’80s...”
    — Daniel Austin [13:20]
• On rent controls:
  • “There is a body of research that is more extensive than any body of research on any issue in economics on rent controls, which shows you over and over and over again, doesn’t matter what you do, it doesn’t work.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb [12:19]
• On global capital's new attitude:
  • “UK and London no longer represent a friendly home for capital. So capital doesn’t come.”
    — Merryn Somerset Webb [23:06]
• On the contrarian case:
  • “If you only get these opportunities when things are bad, my concern is I’m still struggling to see how it gets. I’d rather see a catalyst as the value investor, special situations guys always say.”
    — John Stepek [24:59]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Data & History of UK Property Prices: [03:39–07:29]
• Why “Investment Property” Narrative Is Flawed: [07:29–09:13]
• Interest Rates: The Latest Blow: [09:13–11:04]
• Policy & Political Discussion: [11:04–13:20]
• London Specifics — Trends and Renovation Boom: [13:20–15:01]
• Super Prime Sales & International Demand: [15:04–17:59]
• Regulatory Risks for Landlords: [18:39–19:32]
• "Pent-Up Demand" Debunked: [19:32–20:07]
• Contrarian Takes — Should You Buy Now?: [21:17–24:24]
• Wrap-Up & Final Sentiments: [24:51–25:30]

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Overall Tone & Takeaway

The conversation is candid, data-driven, and sometimes a little world-weary—emphasizing the lack of easy fixes and the ongoing squeeze on both property speculators and would-be homebuyers. While there’s a sliver of possibility for savvy contrarians in the most desirable parts of London (especially for cash buyers with a long view), the market is dominated by caution, policy headwinds, and poor returns for the average investor.

Summary advice: If you’re not a “trophy home” buyer, perhaps sit tight and keep renting.

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For further insights or to join the conversation, listeners are encouraged to share their personal experiences and questions with the show.

Transcript

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Welcome to Maren Talks yous Money, the personal finance edition of Merin Talks Money. In these bonus podcasts, we talk about the best strategies for making the most of your money. I'm Merrin Sumpset Webb and with me today, of course, as usual, I am senior reporter and Money Digital author John Stabbett Kelly John hi Marin. And I also have with us today another guest, Daniel Austin, who's CEO and co founder of Ask Partners, and he is an expert on London property and in particular, London Prime Property. Daniel, thanks for joining us today.

[Daniel Austin]

Thank you.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Right now, Daniel, I'm going to come back to you in a minute, but I want to talk to John a little bit about the general miseries of the UK housing market before we move on to what may or may not be happening in London specifically. Now, John, John, you and I have been talking about property prices in the UK for so long and we've always been a little more down on property as investment, as most people. So today, looking around at all the headlines that you see at the moment coming out on UK property, look, here's a quick, quick rundown, quick rundown of headlines I've just pulled up over the last 10 hours. Right, we're trapped. Despair for sellers as Iran more knocks. Confidence in UK housing. Housing slump threatens to trigger turmoil. UK house prices collapse. Housing markets slump. UK as prices fall and rates jump. Blah, blah, blah. On we go, on we go. So I thought let's go back and have a look at how people have done in the housing market over the last 10 years and the last 20 years. Now, obviously this isn't as straightforward as you might think. You can't do a direct comparison between housing markets and equity markets, for example, because no one leverages themselves up by, you know, many hundreds of percent to buy into the equity market. Maybe they should, but that's another conversation. So, right, over the last 10 years, bank of England calculator inflation has been 39%.

[John Stabbett Kelly]

Yep.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Guess for me, John. In fact, Daniel, you can guess this one too. This is the fun one. You may know the answer. Guess how much house prices in Greater London have gone up over the last 10 years on average, at the same time as UK inflation has been just off 40%.

[Daniel Austin]

40% in total.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

40% in total for UK inflation over that 10 year period.

[Daniel Austin]

I'd say the stats you've got are probably something in the teens. But in real terms I'd argue it's closer to zero.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Well, it's 18.3%. So in real terms we're negative, significantly negative. And then outer Southeast has been better over the last 10 years, 31% but still below inflation. So we are still negative in real terms, Northeast Midlands, et cetera, you're looking at 24, 25%. So still still negative in real terms. Doesn't matter where you look. UK property prices have fallen in inflation adjusted terms over the last 10 years, which to a lot of people I think will be a very shocking number. So, okay, that's fine, let's go back 20 years. So let's go back 20 again. Bank of England inflation numbers have the last 20 years, inflation at 75%. So over that time period, by the way, that's how much the pound in your pocket has lost. Everyone. You, you are down 75% on that pound in your pocket. Remember that, it's very important. Okay, so here we are. 75% inflation over the last 20 years. Anyone want to guess London? How much have prices gone up in London over the last 20 years? Are we up or down in real terms?

[John Stabbett Kelly]

They're up in real terms.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah. Yeah.

[John Stabbett Kelly]

Actually this is terrible. I'm cheating because I've got the graph in front of me. So I'll shut up and I'll let Daniel tell. I built this one a while ago.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

But honestly, what's the point in quizzes when one person has the answers? I put you out of your misery. Unless you want to guess.

[Daniel Austin]

Daniel, I think that the key point here is there was a lot of growth from 2010 to 2020 due to quantitative easing, which wasn't real growth, it was money stimulus growth. And the growth since 2020 to today has been non existent, in fact negative. And if you take it over 20 years, it's a much better picture than 10. But without artificial stimulus, nothing would have happened.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

But it's 120%. 120%. So you have.

[Daniel Austin]

But all of that growth would have been in a short period of time as the focus of qe.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Absolutely. But nonetheless, if you bought your London house in 2006, you do know that you haven't actually lost money in real time. So that's nice. And it's kind of not true in most other places. So over 20 years. Over 20 years you bought a house in the Midlands, you bought a house in the Southwest, Anywhere like that, on average, of course, you know, everyone's going to come in with their outliers, but on average you have still lost money in real terms over a 20 year period. The only place you haven't that I found so far is the southeast where it's 79% against 75%. So it's tiny. It's tiny.

[John Stabbett Kelly]

I mean that is shocking. I mean, I'm looking at Scotland, it's 56%. The only thing you can really see is that I guess 2006, which is the comparator year, is almost the peak of the last housing bubble. But even then you're kind of like, oh, what? So prices haven't actually recovered their kind of pre 2008 peak. So no, that's actually staggering. I thought 20 years back the UK as a whole would be up, but you're right, it's basically flat to slightly lower in real terms, which is incredible.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

I used to this, I use nationwide numbers, by the way, not the ONS numbers. So you know, there's a lot of quibbling in here. You can quibble all over the place, but it will be quite shocking for quite a lot of people, particularly all the people who turn off in the back of the personal finance sections of the newspapers saying that property is their pension. It literally isn't. Unless you bought that house in the 1970s or the 1980s, maybe the 1990s, but, you know, care to be taken. Right, so here we are in a world where, as John has just said, UK property prices as a whole, London aside, have barely squeaked up to where they were in real terms back in 2006, which is really quite something. And I read you those headlines and we are seeing the beginning of what looks like a new round of carnage in the UK market. Right? We're hearing news constantly of chains collapsing across the board. So people who thought that they were chains is such an old fashioned idea. Right? Chains have been working for a while, but now we're at the point where suddenly mortgage deals are falling through or people find that the mortgage is going to be 2 percentage points higher than they thought and that's something they can't really afford. So people are pulling out. We're seeing gazumping. The buy to let sector is an absolute mess. There was a little article in the papers this morning about. Do you remember the old days of flipping where you could buy, buy a flat, do it up, flip it on, you can't do that anymore because stamp duty is too high. It's added that little extra bit for cost, not a big extra bit cost. That makes it really hard. All the new taxes in the buy to let sector, the new taxes on second homes, I mean, this is a big problem. 100% extra council tax on your second home, you're going to keep that second home, you're going to sell it and do you think it's going to get better or do you think it's going to get worse under a more left leaning government? So there's a lot going on in the property market and it's hard, John, across the board to find something particularly positive to say.

[John Stabbett Kelly]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Oh, come on now. You're supposed to say, oh, Mary, you're being a bit of a downer here.

[John Stabbett Kelly]

No, the problem is, to be honest, at the start of this year it looked as if things were ripe for a recovery because interest rates were going down and they were going down faster than people had expected. And house prices are essentially inversely correlated to interest rates. If rates go up, prices go down and vice versa. But of course what's happened is the Iran war has come along, not entirely unexpectedly. It was a potential risk and now interest rate expectations have gone back up again And I was looking at Best Buy mortgage rates and in the middle of February you could get a two year fix for about 3.6, 3.7% that was extending to first time buyers, not just people with lots of equity in their homes. Now you're looking at 4.8% and that's if you've got 40% and you're remortgaging. Now, don't get me wrong, you can get tracker rates for lower than that, but then obviously you're taking interest rate risk. And the point is they've moved very far in a very short space of time. And you can see this reflected in the latest survey from ricks, the Royal Institution for Chartered Surveyors. So basically that shows you how gloomy or upbeat estate agents are and they've kind of expectations for house prices over the next three months have just tanked. They've kind of like dropped off a cliff, haven't been recovering this year. So basically, yeah, sentiment has shifted sharply and interest rates have gone up sharply and that doesn't really bode well for certainly the near term. And I guess the problem is we're now at the point where the Iran war has gone on for long enough that I think there's going to be some lasting damage anyway, even if they come out and somehow kind of come to an agreement in the next week. So, yeah, it's hard to be upbeat, put it that way.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah. And it's hard to imagine the government coming up with a policy at this point that could ease things through that housing market. You look at discussions about rent controls, about look to Scotland, where I live, and you find some genuinely bonkers policies beginning to come through. And there's no cap here, for example, on the multiples that a council can charge of council tax to second homes or non residents. So, you know, you have conversations about 4,500%, et cetera, et cetera, which obviously will destroy local markets. Then you have this other equally bonkers conversation going on about if a landlord wants to sell, a tenant has to be given the right to buy at a fair price, fair to be determined by who can possibly know who, which of course are all things that bung up markets and make people very loathe to buy. So it's hard to see a policy change across the uk, given the prevailing political establishment that might improve matters.

[John Stabbett Kelly]

Yeah, I mean, phonetically speaking it looks as if it's only going to get more kind of left leaning until someone is reminded that things like rent controls don't work, as has been demonstrated multiple

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

times over and over and over again. We're not going to bother talking about rent controls now because it is simply too boring. There is a body of research that is more extensive than any body of research on any issue in economics on rent controls, which shows you over and over and over again, doesn't matter what you do, it doesn't work. So we're. I'm going to let that go here, but please go and look at what Don and I have written about rent controls over the last couple of years. It's too boring to go on about. Adelia Link. Daniel yeah, let's talk about something a bit more upbeat if we possibly can. I'm not sure that wider London we can be particularly upbeat about. I mean, the problem with the valuations of London flats and in particular new build London flats is going to be ongoing, isn't it, when it comes to service charges issues and the inability to value flats, given those issues.

[Daniel Austin]

Yeah. And I think a lot of what you and John were discussing from a macro perspective UK wide applies to London as well. I hate to be as gloomy on a Monday morning, but most of most of London suffering from those same macro factors, Right. Rates are going up, demand's coming down, there's an issue with the buy to let market, there's an issue with demand. And also I think the one thing that we haven't discussed is younger people are more transient, they have more than one career, they think of themselves living in more than one place and home ownership isn't the thing. It was when Thatcher got everyone very excited about it in the 80s and it became the goal of all young people was to try and get on the housing ladder. That started a demand from the bottom that doesn't really exist anymore.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

You know, isn't it also true that I, one of the things about stamp duty, about these high levels of stamp duty, it makes it very hard to move. I mean, I remember even, even when we were young you could buy a flat and then sell a flat and buy another flat. Sell a flat, buy a flat and you know, you didn't have this massive cash payment to make every time you moved, so you felt a lot more able. Buying a flat or a house wasn't a millstone, wasn't an anchor.

[Daniel Austin]

And I think you're seeing that in the kind of more expensive boroughs in central London, volumes of sales and transactions are massively down but construction is up. Right. One in three houses on every prime street has got work going on because people have realized that they might as well spend money on their own home and improve it than move to a bigger or a smaller house. Because at least the stamp duty is going to cost more than the refurbishment or the extension or whatever it is they wanted to do to their house. So everyone's locked in their own homes. We're all kind of trapped now. So it's just the way it is. Right.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

There's going to be nothing upbeat here at all.

[Daniel Austin]

The slight glimmer of hope might be events in the Middle east have maybe made people think about where they want to live. And is London the worst place that in the world like everyone was talking about six months ago. And maybe it's a bit safer and a bit more secure. So I think that will create a bit of stimulus to the rentals market in prime central London which will at least help landlords who own property and stop desperate selling. That could collapse the market even further. So money coming in to the market via rentals is better than no money coming in at all. So that's a shred of light. I just think there's so much political and macro uncertainty in buying a property is it's a fixed, illiquid asset. So why would you do that at the moment? Unless you can buy something of what is perceived to be historically very, very low prices.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah, which you could say, I mean prices in central London now and we keep hearing about houses that have sold for 30%, 40%, 50% below their last purchase price or below their peak valuation. So you could look at that and say this is an amazing opportunity for me to pick up a house in one of the incredibly desirable areas of central London. And this opportunity may not come around again or you may of course think that house is price will continue to go down in central London indefinitely. But if you wanted a trophy house, now might be your time.

[Daniel Austin]

Well look, someone paid 260 odd million for a house for Nick Candy's house two weeks ago. House sold in St. John's Wood for 40 million pounds. Record pricing which is 4,000 pounds a square foot. The owner of the founder of Nike bought a house in Notting Hill not long ago, again setting a record price. So people are still paying full prices for the best of the best. On, on the fact that London will always be London. But I think the market, the biggest fear out there is, is the left leaning government that we have and, and its position and the way it's Leaning make may be getting worse, but I think, I think that more people moving back from say Dubai, even on a semi permanent basis, renting for six months, think, you know, thinking maybe I'll spend some time in London and see what happens in the Middle east before I go back is good for London because the restaurants are full, people are getting paid, that's good for the service sector. And the idea that Dubai is suddenly this nirvana that everyone wants to live in has definitely been a negative, a negative impact on, on London and that and that might be balancing out a bit. Look, we've still got great, we've got great education, we've got great time zone, we've got oak, I'd love to say great rule of law, but even that is becoming, you know, some of the, some of the events in retail. You know, if it's amazing when you're outside of the UK and the chatter that hear about the UK from people who don't live here, you would think it was apocalyptic. You know, the way people talk about, oh, you live in London, really, is it safe? You know, it's, it's bizarre.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Do you think that the wave of non dom selling has, has filtered through? Is that over? The non doms who are going to leave have now left and they've sold and gone wherever they've gone?

[Daniel Austin]

Yeah, I think that's worked its way through the system. The strange thing about London is there's very little panic selling. Most people who own a home have taken it on the chin that they've lost 30 or 40% but they're not really in the mood to crystallize and, and don't really have to. So the market doesn't really operate in the same way that most other, other supply and demand markets do. So if you've got a house and someone wants it, you might be charging the same price that you were charging four years ago and getting that price

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

that's in super prime. If you've got a two bedroom new build flat in Canary Wharf and that's your only asset. Yeah, sort of assets, you're in a bit of trouble, aren't you?

[Daniel Austin]

Totally, totally. And renting that asset is becoming more and more unappealing, as you said, because the renters Reform bill, it's not as draconian some of the ideas that you were talking about, but basically you can only get your tenant out if you want to sell and that is a massive, massive shift and we don't know how that's going to play out in practice. And landlords are becoming More and more skeptical about owning property. That's creating more supply and it's never ending.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah. And you've seen this sharp rise in tenants being served eviction orders in advance of the new rules coming in, which of course everyone is upset about, but to which anyone who understands incentives will just say, well, what did you expect to happen?

[Daniel Austin]

The flip side to all of this is if you look at the amount of people who live on a tiny little island in comparison to, say, how many people who live in the States in a much, much bigger land mass, there is pent up demand to house people. That hasn't been solved. And the housing shortage is a massive issue. The problem is you need a lot more collaboration from a centrist government and the private sector to make it work in a way that's useful for the people who really need housing and practical for the people who build it, which at the moment we're miles apart, John.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

And I do not believe in pent up demand. We only believe in. I'm speaking for you again, John. Sorry. We only believe in demand. Pent up demand is people who want something that they can't afford. Right, good. Wanting something is not economic demand. Wanting something and be able to pay the prevailing price for it is economic demand. So we hear this conversation a lot about, you know, we have a small island, big population, there are lots of people who have unsatisfactory housing, et cetera, et cetera. But that doesn't count as demand if you're a property developer and you're trying to flog a load of flats at even slightly above cost. Demand is absolutely meaningless.

[Daniel Austin]

Only counts as demand if the government view it high enough on the agenda to make it happen. You know, if the government, for example, wanted to do a temporary cut in stamp duty from 17% at the top end to 5% and cancel and half stamp duty at the bottom end, you would see a flurry of transactions. That might be. But it would help construction, it would help, it would help tax take because there's nothing happening at the moment. We see all these, this data that says actually stamp duty take is on the rise due to the. I don't believe it. I just. It's got to be manufactured because as you said, no one's moving.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

No one's moving. They're done. Yeah, we're just not seeing the volumes. Daniel, if you, if I said to you that you had to buy, had to buy a house in the UK at the moment, where would you buy it? I'm giving you three months, three months to locate and buy a house.

[Daniel Austin]

It would have to be central London.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

It'd have to be.

[Daniel Austin]

Because your best bet is on global recovery. If you get some kind of sense coming back into the global markets, capital always goes to London first, unfortunately for the rest of the uk.

[John Stabbett Kelly]

Yeah, John, I mean, London for definite. But I do think that's a really interesting point that Daniel's making because one of the things that historically, like, one of the reasons that London is the only housing market that is up over 20 years in real terms is because it was always a source where global capital kind of went. And for a long time, particularly between about 2009 and say about 2013, 2014, there were a lot of things happening in the rest of the world that prompted capital flight to the UK into London. So the Gulf was a bit unstable. There was kind of. The Eurozone was unstable too, so people were moving money out of there. The problem now, I suspect we all agree, is that you don't have the same attraction to global capital because you've now got the hostility to capital. And so that that kind of fundamental attraction for London, that it's, you know, a global superstar city, doesn't necessarily come in as much anymore when you've got people saying will charge an extra x 100% on council tax or whatever for second homeowners. So I do wonder how much that's going to hang over things for. Well, I guess certainly up until 2029, maybe beyond.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Well, and the inheritance tax business, I mean, I know that you don't have to be a resident in the UK to own property in the uk, et cetera, but you do talk to people who, having heard about our inheritance tax issues, just wouldn't come anywhere near it. Because what if they change the rules again? Tell Americans where our inheritance tax threshold is. They can't quite believe you said those words. £325,000, 40%. Oh, you mad. So I do think that there's a lot, a lot in what you say, John, that UK and London is no longer represent a friendly home for capital. So capital doesn't come.

[Daniel Austin]

The flip side to that argument, of course, is if you're brave enough and you can unlock the opportunities, now's the time, right? Because if you got a center, center right government elected in the UK in 2029, I think you'd see an unbelievable bull market. I just think there's so much capital that would love to invest here that's too scared that a change in government would create just almost immediate bounce in, in all types of real estate here, especially housing.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

So if you were happy to think to yourself that the UK has nearly hit rock bottom, now's your chance.

[Daniel Austin]

But it's a big risk.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

It hasn't.

[Daniel Austin]

You know, anything could happen in 2029 and we could go further to the left.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Yeah, yeah, right. We are about to talk ourselves into absolute misery. So we're gonna stop. We're gonna stop. But I suppose the only thing we can take away from this is that if you would like to buy. If you have a couple of hundred million at your disposal and you'd like to buy something absolutely amazing in central London, now might be your time. Otherwise, maybe keep renting. Is that a fair summary?

[Daniel Austin]

I don't think it's quite as gloomy as that, but it's not a bad summary.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

John, John, come on, give us a. Finish us off with something upbeat. Come on.

[John Stabbett Kelly]

It's always whatever, you know, darkest before dawn. A contrarian investor might look at this and as you say, Daniel, I mean, if you only get these opportunities when things are bad, my concern is I'm still struggling to see how it gets. I'd rather see a catalyst as the value investor. Special situations guys always say.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Okay, so John is not rushing us to buy a block of new build buy to let flats in outer London. Am I right?

[John Stabbett Kelly]

Not yet.

[Merrin Sumpset Webb]

Anyway, we would love to hear comments from people on how they're seeing the property market. What's happening to you? Are you trying to sell? Are you trying to buy? How are you feeling about it? If you have comments or questions, do please let us know because I know this is a subject of very close to the hearts of an awful lot of our listeners. Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talks yous Money. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts also be sure to follow me and John on X or Twitter erinut W and JohnStepek. This episode was produced by Samosadi and Moses Andam Sound designed by Aaron Casper. Questions and comments on this show and all our shows are always welcome. Our show email is merrimoney bloomberg.net thank you, John. Thank you, Daniel.

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