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- [00:00]
Bison Wealth Advisor
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- [00:29]
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- [01:03]
iShares Representative
With Bali From Ishares you get access to both monthly income and growth potential in one simple ETF. It's the best of both worlds. Discover Bali iShares Large Cap Premium Income Active ETF iShares the market is yours. Visit www.ishares.com to view a perspective for investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information that you should read and consider carefully before investing. Risks include principal loss and the use of derivatives, which could increase risks and volatility. Monthly income is not guaranteed. Prepar by BlackRock Investments, LLC
- [01:32]
Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.
- [01:47]
Marin Sums
Welcome to Marin Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I'm Marin Sums at Web and this week I am speaking with Marin Talks Money regular Alec Cutler, manager of the Orbis Global Balanced and Cautious Fund. Orbis Investments is a global contrarian asset manager focusing on long term capital by investing in undervalued stocks. Now this is paying off big time. If you have a look at the performance of Alix funds recently, they are really very impressive. Beating pretty much every every competitor in every index over the short and the long term. So Alec, welcome back to Aaron Talks Money.
- [02:23]
Alec Cutler
Thank you. Nice to be back and I hope you didn't jinx me.
- [02:27]
Marin Sums
I didn't jinx you. That's not a jinxing podcast. That's not what we do. We leave the witchcraft to other podcasts.
- [02:32]
Alec Cutler
Okay, good.
- [02:33]
Marin Sums
It's a big market out there. Everyone can have their specialism now. Alec, quite a lot has changed since we last spoke, but nothing that I think your portfolio isn't already organized around. Last time we spoke about energy, we spoke about infrastructure, we spoke about the return of value investing. And in general, we framed the conversation inside the pyramid of need. I'll tell you what, rather than me explain your own idea to you, you explain to us about your pyramid of need idea and how it is central to your current investing process.
- [03:11]
Alec Cutler
Sure. Maslow came up with this thing called the pyramid of need for a human. And the concept was that you needed to take care of your physiological needs, your shelter and housing and warmth and, and food, and then you needed to deal with your safety. Once you had your food and your shelter set, you needed to keep people from taking that from you, whether it be a saber toothed tiger or your neighbor, then you could afford to need things like social belonging. And once you got that, once you got your crowd, your tribe or whatever, you then could think about things like self esteem and self actualization at the top of the pyramid. And our thinking was and has been and is that this also applies to countries and nations and that if you think about it, some investment ideas pop out. But if you think about that base layer, the foundational layer of a nation's pyramid of needs, it's things like national security, food security, energy security, and right above that, if you take care of those things, then you can think about industrial security and then above that, financial security. And at the top of the pyramid, the wants, the entertainment, popularity, and again, self esteem. And we came up with this towards the tail end of the ESG movement, Zeitgeist or whatever you wanted to call it, because it struck us that things had been so good for so long, we were living in a land of plenty with no danger, that nations became super focused on the top of the pyramid, the wants, and completely forgot about the foundational layers and took them for granted. Like where does electricity come from? It comes from the switch on the wall. No understanding of how that foundation was built over decades and decades to allow you to have this high standard of living and abundance and that it shouldn't be taken for granted. And if we've learned anything in the last five, six years, it's that from the pandemic on that this stuff isn't guaranteed and needs to be focused on. And lo and behold, a lot of the performance that we've achieved come from the world. Starting to understand that.
- [05:26]
Marin Sums
Yeah, it's interesting, isn't it? In that even now, when we're in an environment where we really need to be thinking about national security, about food security, about energy security, all the things at the bottom of your pyramid and industrial security obviously is actually part of national security, isn't it? Because that's how you win wars, by having a strong industrial base. So you can keep churning out the stuff you need during.
- [05:48]
Alec Cutler
So strong feedback loop there.
- [05:49]
Marin Sums
Yeah, yeah. All these things are connected. But yet across Europe and certainly in the uk, we continue to talk about expanding the things at the top without really focusing on the bottom. You know, it takes a long time for people to realize that they've neglected the base of a successful society.
- [06:10]
Alec Cutler
Yep, it can take a long time. It can happen all at once, too.
- [06:14]
Marin Sums
Yes. And is it slightly about to happen all at once?
- [06:18]
Alec Cutler
Maybe. We'll see.
- [06:20]
Marin Sums
Maybe. Okay, so let's look at the environment we're in now. The war with Iran has. I keep getting bits of research from people, Alec, and they all say there are three possible scenarios here, and every single one of those three scenarios is different in every note I get. So there will probably be at this point about 50 possible scenarios, but they come down to war over quickly, war dragging out for a long time. Both have slightly different results in terms of macroeconomics, but possibly they have the same result in terms of the way people think about their investments in that however long the war goes on, everyone in the investment world is still going to be looking at the bottom of this pyramid and saying what's been neglected, what is less expensive than it should be? And I think last time you came on, we talked about the price people were willing to pay for a company involved in AI and the price people are willing to pay for a company that digs out of the ground, all of the things that are absolutely necessary for that technology to even begin to exist. And how surprised we were to find that people will pay 5, 6, 7 times the price for the uncertain technology than they will pay for the underpinning of that technology. Now that, I think, is the shift that is now underway. People are beginning to care less about the top of the pyramid and a lot more about the bottom, and they're going to start paying more for the bottom. And when we framed this, John and I, and we were talking about it the other day as people are now going to pay an awful lot less for hope and an awful lot more for the avoidance of despair.
- [07:54]
Alec Cutler
Yeah, we're seeing that. And it's. It does fill us with joy to. To see the world starting to figure out that who's actually making money on AI. It isn't clear that it's going to be Meta or Amazon or Microsoft. It's very clear that it's going to be and is Taiwan Semiconductor and Siemens Energy and the Marcellus Oil producers, gas producers. And you're starting to see investment capital shift from the former to the latter. Going for the sure thing.
- [08:24]
Marin Sums
Given that you've just mentioned Taiwan, let's just stop there for a minute and talk about the energy constriction that people are now working under. And this is quite a big deal, right? So a lot of these Asian Econom and Japan, which we've talked about a lot over the years, and many of the other economies in that region are dependent 50% plus on their energy coming in from the Middle East. So it may be that we're getting to a point where maybe those aren't the places where you want to be investing. We've seen a lot of volatility. For example in the Korean market.
- [08:54]
Alec Cutler
There is gas around, there's an incredible amount of gas around. It's just you may have to get it from Canada or the U.S. but you do need to. Every country needs to focus on its, on its own controllable energy resource. Korea and Japan are not well endowed with energy resources, so something like nuclear is obvious for them and they do push pretty hard on that. Japan took a bit of a hiatus for a good reason, but they're coming flying back with an emphasis on nuclear. Hopefully we can leverage that in our investments.
- [09:28]
Marin Sums
How do you leverage that in your investments? I know that you've been heavily invested across the energy area for a while now and you're also heavily invested in the UK now. Interestingly, last week's guest talked about the UK and he said he'd be loath to invest in the UK because of the self destructive energy policies in place here. And if you were looking for somewhere to invest in, you were doing it by region. In an ideal world you'd start by saying if all economic activity is energy transformed, does this region or this country provide its industry with a route to inexpensive energy? And the answer to that question in the UK is absolutely not. But your take is different, right?
- [10:11]
Alec Cutler
I think our take's very different in that that's a problem. But we can invest in the solutions and we need to take into account valuation as we've been very overweight the UK for a very long time. And even though the names have done very well, we're still 13% weighted in the balanced fund and 8% weighted in the global cautious fund in UK equities, which is 3, 4, 5, I don't know, 6, 7 times the global weighting. And we're invested in those providing the solutions to that problem.
- [10:44]
Marin Sums
We've had some of those extraordinary performers, Rolls Royce hunting balfourbeatti, et cetera.
- [10:50]
Alec Cutler
They've been wonderful stocks because we've been able to hold them for a very long time because we bought them at 4, 5 and 6 times earnings and they've produced a lot of earnings despite the people being down in the uk Balfour Beatty's earnings are up I think four or five fold. And we were buying Balfour Beatty when it was selling at a fraction of the value of their infrastructure investments plus cash. It's still Balfour's up 4x and it's still just at a premium to net cash plus their infrastructure investments. This is the largest and best managed insurance, construction and engineering company in the world that's making and solving the problems that we've just stated about energy security and energy supply.
- [11:37]
Marin Sums
Yeah. And infrastructure in general. Across the western world. We're moving right into an infrastructure replacement cycle. Right. And we have to, we talk about the grid a lot but it's not just the great, it's pretty much every other part of infrastructure. Certainly if you drive around the us, you drive around the uk, you can look at that and go time for your once in a generational refit.
- [11:55]
Alec Cutler
The thing that's driving the pyramid of needs is also a realization that countries are on their own, that they have to operate in their own self interest because the other countries are operating in their own self interest. So the UK can't rely on the United States to provide itself natural gas and oil, which it largely is dependent on. You have the rumor yesterday or the day before was that Trump was going to stop all oil and gas exports. That's where Europe and UK get their
- [12:26]
Marin Sums
gas, which he easily could. And in a period of shortage, why should each country not limit their own exports? There's a long history of this happening in times of conflict. Right. Countries just saying, do you know what? This is ours and we're going to hang onto it for now and you guys can take care of yourselves. And the UK having shown itself, as the US says, to be a relatively unreliable partner to the US isn't necessarily always going to be in receipt of American largesse.
- [12:49]
Alec Cutler
Global cooperation is an incredibly recent phenomenon that's very short lived and for people our age growing up in a period of global cooperation and globalization. That's what we knew, that's what we've known and that's what we think is always going to be the case. But we've lived in just a fraction of the history of the world and history of humanity. And that will wind up being a very unusual time in the world's history.
- [13:43]
Marin Sums
Okay, so let's stick with the uk. So just be clear, you're going to hang on to all those big names, hang on to Belfor, Beatty, hang on to Drax, not always a popular holding shell. You've got Rolls Royce and as I said earlier, hunting. You'll be hanging onto all those.
- [13:55]
Alec Cutler
We've shuffled them around a little bit. We do focus on risk and control, so we can't just let things go to the sky and we keep finding new names. So the UK is just a, is a wonderful hunting ground for contrarian, super cheap names that no one wants and we get laughed at when we buy. And then five, six, seven years later, people begin to understand why we were happy to own them.
- [14:18]
Marin Sums
Now we might come back to some more of those. But you have, you tell me, been building a bit of a position in companies operating in the North Sea, exploration and production, Serica, Ithaca, Harbour Energy. Tell us a bit about that.
- [14:30]
Alec Cutler
Serica and Ithaca. It's just what we've been talking about. You need energy security. Every nation that wants to be a nation and be a prosperous nation needs energy security. And energy security does not come from someone else. Definitionally, the UK is lucky. It's not like Korea or Japan. The UK has indigenous secure energy supply. It just has to want to have it, knowing that eventually the pendulum swings back and forth and politicians are incredible at without flinching, going from being incredibly anti something to incredibly pro that same thing.
- [15:12]
Marin Sums
I will just interrupt you there to say that you sent me a tweet earlier by Ursula von der Leyen saying Europe needs homegrown low carbon energy sources. Nuclear and renewables together have a key role to pay. Nuclear energy is available around the clock, providing electricity all year. Europe has been a pioneer in nuclear technology and can lead again. To which pretty much everyone pointed out that she was instrumental in the shutting down of all of Germany's nuclear plants. And I look at that and I. And you think one can right now not even begin to imagine the likes of Ed Miliband suddenly saying the UK has always had its own oil and gas supplies and it's very important that we hang onto them for purposes of national security. Drill, baby, drill. But actually, as you say, it's perfectly plausible.
- [15:53]
Alec Cutler
Politicians being unabashedly willing to flip on a dime without any memory of what they said the day before is a big strength, right? Because if they really want to dig their heels in, it just takes longer to get to the right answer. Germany will be a nuclear power again from zero at some point in the future. And one of the big challenges for us in contrarian investing where you're constantly looking at what the market thinks is important that you know is not and you have to wait for the physics and chemistry and economics to drive the right solution is how long it will take. And you look at the situation in the uk, Miliband has said over my dead body. And that means it'll take longer but economics will eventually win out and the need for the foundation of your nation's pyramid of needs to be solid will win out. So we know what the answer is and we just don't know how long it will take. And the longer it takes the more serica Ithaca we can accumulate as long
- [16:59]
Marin Sums
as they can hang on through this period. Where else is interesting at the moment?
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Alec Cutler
Japan looks really interesting and I know you've just been there and you wrote about it and you hit on some of the same things that we've been thinking about. But the investors perception of Japan is that it's a dead economy and we think it couldn't be further from the truth and there might be some reinvigoration going on there. And if you look at stars aligning, the stars could really be aligning for Japan.
- [17:27]
Marin Sums
Let's talk about AI as an investment theme. Emailed TSMC and Samsung for a while. There's no AI without those. Still holding those.
- [17:38]
Alec Cutler
Yeah, we in fact we've owned I as an investor have owned TSMC since its US ADR launch in the mid-90s and Orbis has had a position in Samsung probably since the mid-90s. And they're just fantastic companies. Taiwan Semiconductor is the most important company in the world. I've been saying this for a long time and I think people are starting to agree with that. And yet it sells at 1718 times forward because it's in Taiwan. Samsung right now is selling at a mid single digit PE because one it doesn't have an adr. So the Americans lemmings can't easily buy it. And it's not sitting in Internet ETFs and AI ETFs and it's still perceived to be a hypercyclical memory manufacturer. But memory may be following in Foundry's footsteps where it's no longer going to be a hypercyclical thing that 20 or 30 companies can do. There's only three companies in the world that can do it now. It's incredibly difficult, incredibly capital intensive, incredibly R and D and know how intensive, just as foundry is the making of semiconductors for others. And that six multiple could be a 16 or a 20 multiple at some point in the future.
- [19:00]
Marin Sums
And the other thing that you're invested in is the US natural gas sector which I imagine was pretty ignored but probably isn't anymore.
- [19:07]
Alec Cutler
We've shifted our AI investments a bit over the last year from those making and providing the infrastructure. So the Siemens energies and the Prismians of the world, we've been top slicing those positions as they've become popular. And we haven't dropped the overall AI related weighting, it's shifted more into the consumables. And you can't have AI without natural gas. People are starting to figure out that natural gas, especially in the US is where you're going to get your electricity to run your AI data centers, to create your agentix and your ability to create a cartoon yourself. We've been focused on finding cheap, inexpensive, low p, high free cash flow yielding natural gas producers to add to our natural gas distributors and transportation companies, pipeline companies, because that is the easiest to see consumable required for AI. And semiconductors are consumables as well because these chipsets only last three to five years. So you're gonna. This is not like the Internet where you put fiber optics into the ground and those fiber optics are still there today. The big infrastructure for AI is chipsets that are obsolete after three to five years. So that's these chips are consumables for the first time in technology. Super excited about the consumable aspect. The prime mover of AI if you will, being something as simple as natural gas or semiconductors.
- [20:43]
Marin Sums
How do you invest in natural gas? What do you buy?
- [20:46]
Alec Cutler
You can buy the EMPs, the Explorers and producers and we're trying to find the best ones that are in the best place.
- [20:54]
Marin Sums
Okay, interesting. Let me move you on to the other thing that our listeners are always fascinated by. They look at this war, for example, they'll think to themselves there's two things I'm going to use to hedge this. One is going to be energy one way or another. We've talked about that. And the other may well be gold. And I know that your funds have always held a reasonable amount of gold. What are you doing with that at the moment?
- [21:15]
Alec Cutler
We've top sliced the gold many times. We didn't hold gold until 2018 when it was clear to us that negative interest rates weren't going to last forever and governments were going to continue to spend like crazy. Gold became an obvious place to hide that's appreciated wildly since that time. And we've cut that position back in the portfolios from 10 to 12%, holding it there to now we're in the 8 to 9% because it's not a completely contrarian thing anymore. It's really now become a pure hedge. And we like to buy insurance when it's cheap. And gold as an insurance policy isn't as cheap as it used to be. So we're not going to hold as much.
- [21:58]
Marin Sums
When I've written about gold recently, I've said, well, you know, that may be a little expensive on some measures, et cetera, but you have the backstop of. Of central bank buying. But it may be, as we move into the next part of this new era, perhaps in particular Middle Eastern central banks may not have the available cash to be buying more gold. There may be things they feel it's more appropriate to buy in the circumstances. So perhaps that backstop buyer might not be quite as firm as it was as they were.
- [22:28]
Alec Cutler
That's true. And that would be a negative. That would be something that. Can it get any better? We don't think central bank buying can get much better, although there is unlimited firepower there. But the last shoe that we're waiting to drop on the gold cycle, if you will, is if you remember back in the. You're too young to remember, but in the 70s, coming out of the 70s, the standard investment portfolio, there weren't mutual funds back then, but a standard investment portfolio was advised to hold 10 to 15% gold. And even into the late 80s, when I was graduated from college and into the 90s, that sort of has wandered down from 15% as standard to when I started in this business, it was still 10%. Everyone held 10% in gold in the mid-90s. And then as the Internet kind of took off and LOROI wasn't a great thing and gold became boring and wasn't going anywhere, that went to zero. Maybe back three, four, five years, it
- [23:31]
Marin Sums
was definitely zero for most people. Nobody had gold as an investment.
- [23:35]
Alec Cutler
Yeah, A standard equity portfolio would have zero. And if you said, why don't you hold gold? And it would say, this is an equity portfolio. It's not a gold portfolio. That's a resource, that's a commodity. We don't hold commodities. And now an average equity fund might have 2 to 3%. A pension plan or sovereign wealth fund might have 2 to 3%. If that were to go standard to 5 to 7, you're talking about a doubling in the amount of gold that would have to be purchased on the investment side, and there just isn't that much gold. The only way you're going to get to that would be for the price to double. If you have 3% in your portfolio now and the price doubles and everything else is held constant, now you have six. You could see gold going up quite a bit. As that pendulum swings back to, you can't just invest in US Internet and AI stocks. Well, then what am I going to invest in? Gold is at the top of the list now. And selling out completely now could be premature.
- [24:36]
Marin Sums
Okay, so we wait. We wait until all the wealth managers are telling their clients they need to have 7 to 8%. That'll be a final signal.
- [24:43]
Alec Cutler
And if we've been as high as 15 in the past, wealth managers saying 7, 8 is not outrageous, is it?
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Marin Sums
The other thing that one tends to put in one's portfolio to hedge things is sovereign bonds. But you look around the Western nations and the almost certainty of stagflation and who wants a gilt treasury?
- [25:01]
Alec Cutler
One of the themes that we're thinking about this year is developed markets acting like EMs, emerging markets and emerging markets acting like developed markets from a financial probity standpoint. And we found really attractive investment opportunities in some sovereigns that used to be basket cases and have been behaving properly for quite a while now, just as the developed markets are behaving more and more inappropriately with regard to their nation's finances. So Iceland. Iceland is still considered a frontier market because of what they did during the global financial crisis.
- [25:42]
Marin Sums
It was like Korea still being called an emerging market. Nuts.
- [25:46]
Alec Cutler
Yeah. But Iceland, I guess if you screw every banker in Europe, you're going to get relegated to being a frontier market. They've been behaving very properly and have incredible natural resources. They have unlimited supply of electricity. They have unlimited supply of geothermal heat. Every company should have a data center in Iceland, especially if you care about the environment and you want zero carbon electricity. But it's a country that is producing a surplus. And yet we started buying the bonds when they were yielding 10, 11%. Now they're yielding 7, 8%. But that's still twice the yield of a U.S. sovereign. And the currency's cheap. Brazil. Brazil. We're getting 13, 14% yields, 8% real, 8% higher than inflation yields. We like the real the country. Maybe if they were allowed to, they would behave inappropriately with their finances. But they can't and they're not. They're running a much lower deficit than the United States. They've Got a similar level of inflation as the United States and yet you're getting a double digit yield. So some of the money's gone there. Australia is not a frontier market or an em. But they are running their finances more appropriately. All three of these countries I've mentioned are resource rich. I like that thinking about the bottom of the pyramid. They actually make things that others want to buy. Norway. The yields on the Norwegian debt. We've been long the Norwegian currency for seven or eight years and it's finally starting to work. It should be the most secure currency in the world. Should be very sought after.
- [27:31]
Marin Sums
The Norwegians have behaved badly. Have they? The Norwegians have never behaved badly. They don't quite fit into this group.
- [27:38]
Alec Cutler
No, they haven't. But the currency's been treated like they have and we scratch our heads wondering why and the only thing we can come up with is they're being tarred by the European feather. They're closely associated with Europe's their customer. They sell natural gas and oil to Europe, they sell electricity to Europe and don't see what's wrong with that. Europe's going to continue to have to buy that stuff. They have a massive surplus every year. They've got a tremendous $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund and virtually no debt. That currency, if you're worried about the security of your buying your purchasing power, the Norwegian kroner is the ultimate in security. It's not the Swiss franc, it's Norway. So a lot of that gold, as we've been top slicing gold has gone into these sovereign bonds that we believe are way undervalued. Interest too high, interest rates too high. And we like the currencies.
- [28:39]
Marin Sums
Well, let's talk a little bit about Iran. Is there anything. And we've talked about might it be a short world, might it be a long war, what are the endless scenarios? But is there anything in what's happening in the Middle east that might make you change the way you invest the fund? I suspect you're going to say that no, this is a resilient fund built for exactly this environment. But is there any shift happening as a result?
- [29:01]
Alec Cutler
No, I don't think any fund can raise a resilient flag and say this fund is going to outperform in every environment. That's just not real. But increased global conflict has been something we've thought a lot about. Countries focusing on their self interest, the focusing on the bottom of the pyramid of Eid. It kind of accelerates and highlights all those things. As you pointed out that what's going on in Iran. Should be another wake up call to the British government, to the UK Government. That would accelerate our realizing some gains from playing that bottom of the pyramid. As a portfolio manager, I'm waking up in the middle of the night fretting about the Iranians mining the Strait of Hormuz. What's going to be the US response? But you really can't take an investment, make changes in the portfolio based on that because the uncertainty is just so high and the market reaction is so unpredictable. Who would have thought that gold isn't supposed to sell off, but gold is sold off during this period. Why is gold sold off? It should be more valuable in a conflict like this. But, but too many people own gold and they're getting margin calls so they're selling their gold because it's the only thing that's up and that's just the dollar is strong even though the US is the one driving this. There are a lot of contradictions and you just can't predict the market response for these things. I put it in the too difficult pile to try and play these short term geopolitical things even though we're very focused on geopolitical events.
- [30:38]
Marin Sums
Okay, so I didn't jinx you at the beginning, I hope, but just to say that your expectations of outperform from here rest on the idea that we are beginning to see the return of value after this long wait of saying markets revert to the mean. This stuff happens. It will happen. It does now feel like this really is happening, that there's a general shift across the investment environment back away from growth, away from expensive things and back towards what is really going to offer me value.
- [31:07]
Alec Cutler
It does. It feels like valuation is starting to matter again. After literally people going on CNBC and Bloomberg and saying valuation doesn't matter. We're starting to see rotation, which is a key element of a value cycle where industries are falling out of favor, industries are coming into favor. Who would have thought three years ago that software and biotech would be super weak industries that no one wants to own? And who would have thought three years ago that critical energy infrastructure would be incredibly popular place to invest. So these rotations are critical in element of a value cycle and we're starting to see that them. So we're increasingly optimistic that we're seeing the pendulum swing back from growth and momentum and valuation not mattering to valuation becoming important again. And that would be a very welcome thing for us and our clients.
- [31:57]
Marin Sums
Brilliant. Alec, thank you so much for coming on today. We really appreciate it. Thanks Maren thanks for listening to this week's Marian Talks Money. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to your podcasts and keep sending your questions or comments to marianmoneyloombug.net we do like them, we do read them and we are are going to try and answer them all. You can also follow me and John on Twitter or x. I'm arinetsw and John is John Underscore Stepeck this episode was hosted by Me, Mary and Somerset Web. It was produced by Sam Asadi and Moses Andam Sound designed by Blake Maples and Nick Johnson. Special thanks of course to Alec Cutler.
- [32:36]
Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer
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- [33:15]
iShares Representative
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- [33:41]
Bison Wealth Advisor
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