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What's driving the markets this week? What's on investors minds as they look ahead?
John Stepek
Find out in 10 minutes or less.
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John Stepek
Welcome to Merlin Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I'm John Stepek, senior reporter at Bloomberg and author of the Money Distilled Newsletter. Today I'll be covering for Merrin for this special episode of the show, recorded live from the Edelman Smith Field Investor Summit at the London Stock Exchange. With me is Helen Jewell, International, Chief Investment Officer of Fundamental equities for EMEA at Blackrock. Helen has over 20 years of experience in financial services, starting her career as an investment banker following a training route into equity research at Goldman Sachs and then moving to Blackrock in 2015.
Now we're speaking at the start of December and it's been a fascinating year for equity markets in general. AI and US Tech stocks have still hogged the headlines, but when you look at major global market performance in the year to date, you'd actually in most cases have been better off investing anywhere but the US So I wanted to grab a chat with Helen to get a sense of what's caught her eye this year and where she thinks the best opportunities might be for 2026. Helen, welcome to Merlin Talks Money.
Helen Jewell
Thanks for having me.
John Stepek
It's very nice to have you. So yeah, as I was just saying, there it's been a, I mean I was actually looking at the figures and it's actually really been a spectacular year for markets. I really don't think that's over exaggerating. I think the FTSE 100 has seen its best performance and I mean, I know that's not saying much for the FTSE 100, but it's done its best since 2009. So what's kind of stood out most to you so far this year?
Helen Jewell
I'm glad you said that actually, John, because often the first question people ask me is this year it's all been about us and AI again. And I have to remind them that actually over 80% of major indices have returned double digit returns this year, including as you say, the FTSE which is, or the FTSE 100 close to 20%, which is incredible. I mean that is really, really strong returns. And so the thing that has been really incredible this year is firstly the diversification of those returns, both across markets, but also across sectors as well. Again, I think most people think that the tech sector is the one that has performed the best and it has performed very well. But you've also seen utilities, in fact, you've seen pretty much every major sector post very strong returns. And again that has been a key detail for the market this year. The second thing I think is worth mentioning though is that we have seen quite a number of quite significant pullbacks. If we go back to the start of this year in January, we had what was termed the deep seek moment when suddenly people thought that maybe AI wasn't the only story in town. And there was a realization that we had to be really thoughtful about what that meant. We then course had Liberation Day in April. We then saw pullbacks in the summer, which was a painful summer for many of us, and then even November saw a bit of a degrossing and a rotation. So the second thing that has been remarkable in the markets is the number of quite significant pullbacks that you've had. But they've always been followed with a buy the dip moment. And that is not something I have remembered for a long, long time, if ever in my career, just on that point.
John Stepek
I mean, you're absolutely right because, I mean, I suppose one of the reasons I was surprised when I was looking at the figures is you do have this abid memory, particularly of April and Liberation Day. I guess everyone thought at that point that, well, that's it, we're going to get a bear market now. It finally looked as if the AI story was kind of Dead in the water. It's very interesting. It's come back. Have you got any thoughts about what is driving that kind of buy the dip mentality? Is it just being hammered into investors heads that it's been the right thing to do for about 15 years now?
Helen Jewell
I mean the most important thing with the buy the dip is it is being supported by actual fundamentals. And this is why when we think about AI and a very common question I get asked is is there an AI bubble? These are real earnings of real companies with real cash behind them. And I think that is the key reason that people are staying invested in this market is that they actually see true returns from companies that have got the capital to invest. And the AI story is going to be a multi year story. I mean we're really, really just at the beginning of it. The amount of capital that's currently being deployed is half a trillion dollars. That is an incredible amount of capital, about half percent I think of global GDP and again being supported by companies with real cash behind it. So we're just at the start of that. I think there is a second reason though, and let's be honest, there's a little bit of whether you want to call it FOMO in the market or players in the market, whether it's retail investors of course, index investors, you've got the pod shops who have capital that is invested based on momentum etceter and these participants also are participants that support the market and the construct of the market. And I think it's important that we recognise the influence those participants have, particularly after you've seen multi period returns. So if I've made 20% and then 20% again and another 20% if the market pulls back by 5% I'm not as bothered as if I'm starting from point zero. So the amount of capital that is in investors pockets is also that little bit higher.
John Stepek
There's quite a big kind of almost psychological floor beneath the market. Well, and also just a money floor.
Helen Jewell
Yeah, exactly. And I don't think that it's very difficult for us as investors to really put a number on what that means. I mean ultimately John, the market is two things. It is the earnings that a company is going to make and it is the multiple that people are willing to pay for that earnings going forward. The first of those, it's our job as fundamental investors to try and figure it out. I mean that's what I've spent 25 years of my career trying to understand. The second though, at the end of the day is what People are willing to pay. And this is the question for the s and P500. When it was at 22 times, we thought, is it too high? Then it goes to 23. Well, what is the right number for that multiple if it continues to deliver for investors?
John Stepek
Yeah, I mean, that is a good point. I mean, I must admit I've spent a lot of my kind of my own career looking at the Cape ratio and kind of more recently stressing about how high it is in the us but that doesn't seem to have. Certainly not a timing tool. But one thing I would say, which I think again, going back to what we started with, this has kind of been the year where we've seen the rest of the world catch up with the us And I'm just wondering what you think is driven that, as in why have we seen that switch and do you think that's going to continue or do you think those sectors are perhaps getting too expensive themselves? Like the defence story is an interesting one to me because that's kind of rocketed. But there is also a sense now that maybe Germany's not going to quite be able to deliver. But anyway, so I'll let you take that.
Helen Jewell
Yeah. So why is it caught up? First off, I think really goes back to that Deep Seq moment. The deep seq moment was the moment that we realized that the US was not the only story in town. 12 months ago I was here, I think we were talking about US exceptionalism all the time. And it was because the US had delivered and nothing else had. And I think what happened with the deep seek moment is it was this realization of, oh goodness, maybe when it comes to AI, it's not just about the US and maybe my portfolios, I should have a bit more diversity. Other than the us the best thing you could have done at the start of the year would have been underweight US and overweight China tech for that month of January. So that realization has meant that people have looked elsewhere and you've been in again this unusual situation where you have so many markets well into double digits. So the starting point has been investors looking for other opportunities outside of just that US AI bubble. And where have they looked? Well, they've looked at generally two things, which is what investors look at. They look at, firstly, where do they think that the earnings growth is going to come from? And that's the defense story, right? The investors saying, we believe that there's going to be this flow of capital and from the German government, from Europe into defense, that is going to Support the earnings. So I am going to buy there. And the second area they look at is areas they think valuations look really interesting. So they go, okay, what looks relatively interesting? And in Europe the banks has been the key area that that has been true for. They look relative to their history, pretty cheap. We think these are really strong, good companies that restructured post the financial crisis. They're going to return capital to shareholders. Let me go there. And it's just what you would do if you're buying a house, right? If you're buying a house from an investment perspective, you either want to go somewhere that looks pretty cheap and really good value or you somewhere where you think is really up and coming and there's going to be future earnings. It's the same mentality. So then that goes for where next? Well, it's the same mentality still. Where do we think the earnings are going to be and where still looks good value now, earnings wise, the defence maybe has a bit further to go, but it's probably not the dominant story. To me, the dominant story in 26 is going to be, you know, the energy solution providers. And that's where Europe can actually be really, really good.
John Stepek
That's interesting. So, because obviously, you know, looking at where highs lagged this year, energy does come up, although I'm assuming that that is mostly the fossil fuel side because I think clean energy's done reasonably well this year. So where is it you think the money's going to be chasing next year?
Helen Jewell
Yeah, so three things. And actually, interestingly, the energy stocks have not done badly this year. The oil price, you've seen a separation between the oil price and energy stocks, which is pretty interesting. Part of that is geopolitics, but part of that is also the recognition that actually demand is going to be more resilient than people thought for the fossil fuels. So fossil fuels have done okay. Clean energy has already started to do well, but definitely has got better. But let's put it into three camps. If you need energy and you need energy, a lot of it is driven by AI. So so much from the AI perspective is AI needs energy to work. There's also things like air conditioning. But as AI seems to be the only thing we talk about that is the dominant driver. So what do you need? You need companies that can provide the energy and it doesn't matter where that energy really comes from. It can be fossil fuels, it can be clean energy, but need energy. Number two, you need that energy to be efficient. So companies that are supporters of energy efficiency and thirdly you need the energy to get to where it needs to go. So network companies, so that's three buckets which are all kind of part of the energy infrastructure. Anyone who provides the nuts and bolts for wind turbines, anybody who provides solutions for energy efficiency, and anybody who provides the network for actually getting the energy to where it needs to be, and of course the data centers for storing the energy where it needs to be, they are going to be the real winners. Energy, I think John is going to be the real constrainer for AI in 26.
John Stepek
Yeah, I mean, yeah, that makes an awful lot of sense. I realize there's probably a limit to how many specific companies, but what's a good example of a company or an area like an example rather than a share tip, as it were?
Helen Jewell
Yeah, so a good example is in the German industrial space. So the German industrials names have got some really interesting names within there. Siemens Energy for example is one. It's done very well. So again these are kind of about having more. Again from a network perspective. You've got names like Iberdrola in Spain, SSE here in the UK recently did a capital raise. These are really interesting names and interesting companies because they are providing a solution to something that the world needs right now and ultimately bringing it back to 101. And as you said at the start, I spent a couple of years in training and in training what you were kind of telling people is look, this isn't, this is about looking at companies that have earnings. Earnings is revenue less costs. Revenue is driven by providing things that people need. Things that people need or want is solutions, solutions that solve things that people are looking for. And right now we have got a need for more energy driven by AI, driven by air conditioning, driven by just the way we're living our lives at the moment, foreign.
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John Stepek
We're going back to the AI because and talking about the capital spend and I read a very interesting piece from Gavkal a couple of weeks ago and it kind of made a point that I must admit I hadn't really thought about because everyone kind of lazily compares this to the dot com bubble and one thing that this chap was making the point was that, well, actually the dot com bubble, once these companies were established, the marginal cost of sales was basically free and so everything went to pure profit. Whereas AI seems to have this ongoing capital intensity where you're trying to keep up with your rivals, you need to buy the next hot Nvidia chip, that sort of thing. Is there a point where we kind of run out of road slightly and it's good we're building out all this infrastructure but then everyone goes, oh wait a minute, where's the actual money coming from to pay for all this? I'm just curious what your take is on that element.
Helen Jewell
I mean that is something that people worry about. But the reason I think we shouldn't worry is that and I think it's, as you say, where AI is a little bit different to dot com. AI is transformational across many different things. It's not just about the consumer. It is about defense, for example, it is about government security. So when it comes to AI, there is the two things. There's the one that you touched on, which is that circularity of the more chips you need or the more chips you have, the more AI can do. The more AI can do, the more chips you need. So you've got that circularity of growth in the chips, which is important. The second thing is this is bigger than just being able to buy things on your phone. This is about needing this for security from a geopolitical perspective as well. And that's probably the thing that we don't talk about quite enough if. And it's a very big. It's hugely unlikely but the hyperscalers ever decided actually tomorrow this is done. We're not spending. I am confident that governments would step in that they need to. They can't not be part of this story because this is so important. It's going to be part of defense, it's going to be part of national security as well. Well, the AI story is much, much bigger than just being able to do the Christmas quiz via ChatGPT.
John Stepek
That's really interesting. So you're basically saying there's a kind of taxpayer put under the AI sector to a certain extent. That's interesting.
Helen Jewell
But you're already seeing it, right? You go over to different countries and you know, we're already starting to see it here in the uk. You go in and it's face recognition at passport control. It's those things, if you're not investing in those things and those things are all kind of part of AI. I mean these are all AI constructs. If you don't do that, you're going to be left behind. So it's not just about the companies, although the companies obviously are the drivers and the nuts and bolts of all of this. Again, the companies are the solution providers and understanding who are providing the solution. That people. And by people, it's consumers, it's governments, it's everybody need.
That is our job. And that's why I love it, John. That's why it's so interesting to me every single day. Because it's thinking who is going to be providing the solution going forward.
John Stepek
And so in terms of the best play on AI next year, I get the feeling you're basically saying the energy is 100% because it's semi decent valuations and it's definitely going to be needed. That makes a lot of sense in terms of. Because going back to the bias, I'm.
Helen Jewell
In Europe, John, so a little bit biased, if you don't mind me saying there. I love anything that has a much bigger European tilt to it. So there's some really interesting European, European companies in that space.
John Stepek
That's Forgivable, given your job title, actually, on that point, obviously the other one that has kind of rocketed because I was looking at Spain, for example, and one thing that caught my eye a couple of weeks ago when I was writing about it, and obviously the Spanish market is not one I pay a lot of attention to, but I was looking at it, I was going, my goodness, that is up an awful lot this year. And then you kind of look at it and it's like, well, it's basically the banking sector that's driving that. And it's the same way the Italian market has gone up a lot because the banks have rocketed. And even in the uk, I mean, Lloyds is up a lot this year. I think NatWest was up a lot last year. Are the banks still on a roll, do you think, or is that sort of ripening?
Helen Jewell
No, we still think the banks are on a roll and we remain overweight. HSBC again in the uk, another big performer this year. Why are we so positive on them? Even when they've gone up the valuations, although they are higher than they were a year and two years ago, they are still not particularly excessive versus history. So that is number one. Number two, they are a set of companies that have resilience in their earnings. People think so much just about the interest rate. And of course, the interest rate might come down a little bit, but it's only going to come down a little. And we're still in kind of a good spot for banks. More importantly for banks, it's about the loan growth. And what you're seeing is you're seeing corporate balance sheets in a strong place, you're seeing consumers in a strong place, and that is really supportive for the banks. And the third thing I would say, and I don't think European banks are given enough credit for this post the financial crisis, they did really think about how they were capitalized and how they were structured. And as a result of that, we think in the next three years that they're able to return up to 25% of their current market cap to sharehold in either dividends or share buybacks. So that's a pretty nice base, right? You buy something feeling confident that you're going to get 25% back, even if nothing else happens and the likelihood is something else is going to happen. So European banks remain a key part of our portfolios at the moment.
John Stepek
I mean, it's interesting because I would say, and I don't know what your thoughts are, but one thing that did stand out to me about the budget recently, in a. I guess a positive sense was that that the Chancellor managed to resist all pressure, put another tax on the banks. And also the consumer car loan issue seems to have been downplayed in the way that the PPI scandal was. I think it almost feels as if, and I don't know if you agree, but the banks have come off the naughty step in the last 12 months, certainly in the UK and it also seems to be happening in Europe as well. So I guess maybe we've not got that same post financial crisis kind of anger at them to an extent.
Helen Jewell
Yeah, no, I think it's certainly eased and I think when you look at the returns that these companies have had, they're so relatively mundane versus some of the other companies. I mean the question actually bringing it back to that AI story and kind of it's got so far that we need to get to. I was listening on the way into the radio and obvious in Australia you're starting to see changes being made there as children can't use social media, et cetera. That is going to be the interesting next step. I think it's not going to be about the banks. Again, that's quite. I think it's more likely to be about for AI. What does that mean from a social perspective? It's going to be really interesting, but that I think is going to be much more the focus than the banks.
John Stepek
That is interesting because one thing we have been talking about for a long time is when is the backlash against the big tech companies going to come about? And I know that's an idea that's been bubbling under for several years.
But that's really interesting you raised that then because. Yeah, it almost feels as if that is starting to happen. People are getting more and more concerned about what social media is perceived at least to have done to children's brains and things like that. So, okay, so that's a kind of possible risk for the tech sector next year.
Helen Jewell
Perhaps it is. But again our job is to think about how do you turn that something more tangible. Backlash can be words, but a backlash can be actions. And at the moment, until you know more about actions, I think it's.
I'd love over a beer to chat more about it, but from an investment perspective you're just guessing and in terms.
John Stepek
Of sectors for next year that you're perhaps less keen on or ones you would just not be as enthusiastic about any standout as being either they're too expensive or. Or there's just nothing going to happen there or anything you would basically avoid.
Helen Jewell
Yeah. The one area that unfortunately still struggles is the auto sector in Europe. It is under a huge structural pressure. Obviously where you've seen tariffs coming in, that has put it under pressure both directly and obviously indirectly through other countries now having cheaper vehicles that they can exports it to Europe. So it pains me to say it, but the European auto sector is one that we remain underweight. It feels a little bit of a value trap at the moment.
John Stepek
And in terms of individual countries, are there any that you favour over others or is that not really how you think about the European market?
Helen Jewell
It's a bit like you say, when you get too much in the European market, you're really looking at companies. So Spain is great, but Spain is great because it's got fantastic banks and utilities. I would say, as I mentioned with Iberdrola earlier, the one area as we are sitting here in Paternota Square that's worth mentioning is the UK small cap. So the UK small cap has been unloved and undervalued for a period of time now and you know, the budget last week perhaps provides a little bit more stability. Obviously one of the things the Chancellor is trying to do is get people investing more in the uk and if people invest, they tend to invest in their home country. We've got great small cap companies in this country and the valuations of some of them are incredibly interesting. So we remain long term positive whilst recognizing that structurally it's been a very difficult place over the last couple of years.
John Stepek
I mean, that is interesting you bring that up, because I prefer to think about valuation without worrying too much about catalysts. But obviously small caps in the UK have been struggling for a long time. Is there anything you see that may actually make that, that kind of start to go away in 2026? Because obviously even the FTSE 250 has had, by comparison, a bad year alone. 11% would normally be a pretty decent year. So I'm just curious to see what you think of that.
Helen Jewell
Yeah, I don't think there's a one clear catalyst, which is a real shame, because if there was, I would be absolutely pivoting all in. I think maybe what we are going to see is again this understanding that you need to broaden out portfolios. Exactly what we've seen this year now, at the start of the year, that felt easy in inverted commas because you had these pockets that had not performed well. Now of course it's more difficult because you have more pockets that performed well. So maybe what that forces is it Forces investors to go further afield to find those pockets that still look relatively cheap and relatively interesting. That's the hope that I have. But maybe that's my hope in a slightly biased opinion, but it would be lovely if they did. And I think what you will see because the liquidity is relatively low, you do start to see these virtuous cycles. Once it happens, people think, oh, I've missed out here and we go. So I would love, love to see that happen. And let's hope, right? It could be a hope for 2026 hope.
John Stepek
I like that. I mean, obviously I think people were right to be disappointed with the budget. That said, do you think that the three year stamp duty holiday might bring a couple of bigger IPOs here that were looking elsewhere and perhaps now think, oh, actually maybe we can choose London or at least dual listing London or something like that. Is it going to move the needle at all?
Helen Jewell
I think what it shows is a real try a support, a kind of desire of a government to say we want to help make this happen. And I think that is important. But let's be honest, the thing that is the most important thing of all is the valuation level. So actually what is more likely to be supportive is again that footsie starting to move up and the FTSE and people thinking if I list here, my opportunity for returns is just as great as if it was elsewhere. That is the big dial mover. But having a supportive government, it can't help in terms of a government that's basically indicating to the world market. We want to make it easier for you to list in the UK.
John Stepek
Yeah. What's the biggest risk you see for 2026? Because obviously this year there was tariffs, there was the bond market was going to blow up at any point. And neither of those things have actually really done the damage that perhaps people were worried they were going to do. What do you think the potential kind of thing to keep an eye on is for next year?
Helen Jewell
I think the biggest risk is actually complacency driven by those couple of things that you've seen. And although the macro does look okay and decent, we are starting to see a little bit of softening of job data in the US at the moment. We're still in that bad news is good news because then the Fed is more likely to cut. But if we get too complacent and we don't think about the impact of maybe stickier inflation on jobs, on sticker inflation, on consumer confidence, that is the biggest concern that I would have that actually what you See, is this kind of creep of things not getting terrible, but kind of just getting a little bit worse and a little bit worse. And again, all of this comes back to the market is driven to a certain, certain extent by the multiple that people are willing to pay, which is driven a lot by the confidence they have in the underlying economies. So my biggest concern, and it's not a big bang answer, I don't think, you know, there will be certain things that we haven't even thought about yet. I mean, 12 months ago I didn't know, you know, deep seek was a thing that was going to kind of blow up in January. But that kind of creep of nervousness that, that is something that I am keeping a real eye on because I worry that we've become complacent. John. The concerns we have went away. Everyone just kept buying the dip. And therefore we end up in a situation where we just almost don't even look at things that we should as investors be continually looking at.
John Stepek
And on the glass half full side, is there anything you see as being a big positive surprise that could happen? Something that may engender more confidence that we're not really thinking about?
Helen Jewell
That's a really good question. I think because we've all been so positive, we probably are thinking about all of the good things that might be likely to happen. But I think maybe one of the things is the element of, again, I don't want to sound kind of boring, always bringing back to this energy story, but the ability of the human being to continually solve issues that are coming up in the world. It's not necessarily a Big bang surprise, but I think the resilience of us as humans, again, if you think about the market, if you think about Liberation Day, Liberation Day was such a big day in the markets. But actually very quickly, companies adapted, governments adapted, people adapted, and I think giving ourselves a little bit of a pat on the back for that and recognizing the ability of humans to respond well is a good thing. And then maybe obviously from a other perspective that there's a lot of geopolitical issues that continue. So seeing those move through and resolution of some of those is always obviously helpful for markets, if more importantly helpful for humans.
John Stepek
Yes, quite so. Okay. It's basically saying, buy energy, stick with the banks, avoid cars.
Helen Jewell
In a nutshell, yes.
John Stepek
Is there anything else you would. Luxury sector. That's the one other big European one.
Helen Jewell
You saw my finger come up. If we were being recorded and by energy, to be very clear, let's kind of scope that out. Breathing energy Because I think people, when they think about that, they just think about their oils in one segment. All energy solution providers buy banks. And then actually for luxury, I'd actually broaden it out to quality growth in Europe. Quality growth in Europe. And by that I mean really good European companies that again, have resilient earnings, they have strength in their balance sheet. These companies have not actually had a great year. And the reason they've not had a great year in Europe is a weakening dollar and the tariffs, most of them are exporters. Those two things combined have really put pressure and nervousness on those companies. So they include names in the luxury goods space, like lvmh, names in the semiconductor space, names in the data provider space and the solution space, software space, which often have just been kind of actually downgraded quite significantly in investor minds. Those, as a group of companies have not had a great year in Europe. But when we see more stabilization in terms of currency, when we see obviously the tariff resolutions starting to come through, I think they're a really interesting group of companies. Perhaps being selective, though, always good for me to throw in a recommendation for active investing in that space to really understand the winners versus the losers.
John Stepek
So you have to be picky. So we can't just buy a tracker fund, Is that the idea?
Helen Jewell
Not a tracker fund for quality growth. Quality growth is exactly the kind of area that you want to play. Selective and active.
John Stepek
Very good. Well, listen, that's been really helpful, Helen. I think we've got a good overview of what we need to be looking at for next year. Now, I'm going to ask our usual end question, but before I do that, is there anything else specific that you wanted to bring up that you feel that I haven't covered? That we haven't covered?
Helen Jewell
The one thing I perhaps is ask all the listeners, AI and AI US is such an interesting story that, as we say, we could talk about entirely just about that. But just because that's the story that is dominating the headlines, don't forget that there is still really interesting returns happening in many other parts of the market. So diversifying portfolios is not just about moving away from a dominant risk in portfolios and feeling you've got to give up returns to do so. It's absolutely not the case. You can diversify portfolios in a really sensible way and also maintain those returns. So don't let the headlines grab how you allocate portfolios.
John Stepek
I said don't listen to the headlines. Can you trust journalists? We're terrible.
So for Christmas, Helen, which book have you read this year that you would say would make an excellent gift?
Helen Jewell
Oh well, it's a great question and I'm going to say the one that's best for a gift because it's a brilliant book. It's a fiction book Frederik Backman called My Friends. I love that author and it's a really, really good, really enjoyable, really heartwarming, readable book. So as a gift, definitely do that. The second one, if I can have two, which is probably less good as a gift, but it's really, really interesting. It's called Being Mortal by Atul Gawande and this is really about how we think about death and dying. So probably not the best thing to give as a gift, but certainly one that I would recommend reading. It really gets you thinking, which is all that you can ask for from from a book. So one that's heartwarming, one that gets you thinking, one that is a gift, one that's a By yourself?
John Stepek
No, those are great choice.
Helen Jewell
Diversification everywhere you see.
John Stepek
Well, look, thanks very much Helen. Really appreciate your time.
Helen Jewell
Thanks John. Great to be here. Thanks for having.
John Stepek
Thanks for listening to this week's Merlin TalksMoney. If you like her show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and keep sending questions or comments to marinmoneyloombird.net this episode was hosted by me, John Stepek. You can also follow me on Twitter or x I'm on Stepek and Maren isw. This episode was produced by Somersadi and Wuzzy Zander. Sound designed by Blake Maples and special thanks to Helen Jewell, Edelman Smithfield and the London Stock Exchange.
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Episode: Why Europe’s Banks and Energy Stocks May Lead the Next Rally
Date: December 8, 2025
Host: John Stepek (Bloomberg)
Guest: Helen Jewell, CIO of Fundamental Equities EMEA, BlackRock
Setting: Live at Edelman Smithfield Investor Summit, London Stock Exchange
This episode, guest-hosted by John Stepek, explores why European banks and energy stocks could lead the next market rally in 2026. Stepek speaks to Helen Jewell, a seasoned equities investor at BlackRock, about the diversification of returns across global equities, the forces behind the market’s behavior, and tactical opportunities and risks as we look ahead. The conversation takes a practical, slightly witty tone and delivers specific sector and stock insight, relevant analogies, and actionable takeaways for portfolio construction going into the new year.
On 2025’s breadth of performance:
“…Over 80% of major indices have returned double digit returns this year, including as you say, the FTSE … which is incredible.” — Helen Jewell (03:15)
On AI’s foundational difference vs. dot-com era:
“AI is transformational across many different things. It is about defense, for example, it is about government security … if the hyperscalers ever decided actually tomorrow this is done, we're not spending. I am confident that governments would step in.” — Helen Jewell (17:17)
On risks of market complacency:
“The biggest risk is actually complacency… we are starting to see a little bit of softening of job data… what you see is this kind of creep of things not getting terrible, but kind of just getting a little bit worse.” — Helen Jewell (28:54)
On energy as the bottleneck for AI:
“Energy, I think John is going to be the real constrainer for AI in ‘26.” — Helen Jewell (12:47)
On luxury & quality growth:
“Quality growth is exactly the kind of area that you want to play selective and active.” — Helen Jewell (33:23)
On the enduring value of diversification:
“Don’t let the headlines grab how you allocate portfolios.” — Helen Jewell (33:48)
The conversation is brisk, practical, and occasionally self-deprecating, with a clear focus on fundamentals (“this is about looking at companies that have earnings”). Helen Jewell emphasizes selectivity, not chasing headlines, and the enduring case for diversification within and beyond the US/AI growth story. The energy “nuts and bolts” theme recurs as the highest conviction area for 2026, especially where Europe has a lead.
Closing advice:
"Don’t let the headlines grab how you allocate portfolios... You can diversify portfolios in a really sensible way and also maintain those returns." — Helen Jewell (33:48)
Book recommendations:
This summary captures all major sections and highlights from the episode, offering a thorough overview and actionable guide for investors considering Europe’s equity markets in the year ahead.