← Middays With Matt
Middays With Matt
FCS vs FBS (Tues 8/11 - Seg 10)
00:14:56
Matt goes through the number where in the new landscape of college football, upsets of FCS vs FBS has gone lower and lower.
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- [00:01]
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Grainger knows. When you're a procurement manager for an office park, you're not managing one building, you're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Lights about to fail, filters ready to clog H Vac on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind. Count on Grainger for quality products, easy reordering and 24. 7 support. Call 1-800-GRAINGER click grainger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [00:31]
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Yesterday, the NCAA's appeal SL stay order to deny the 5 for 5 not allowing 2022 athletes to be grandfathered into the 5 for 5. Their appeal against that failed. So that means that student athletes who use their eligibility in the class of 2022 for four years who were ineligible according to the old rules are now eligible according to the new rules. Now there are some things like, you know, this order was very specific to, you know, this doesn't mean there's a new portal, period. This doesn't mean you could circumvent the cap. This doesn't mean that like the what you could spend on your team goes up or down. Like it didn't change any of that. It just, it very clearly stated and it was clarified that hey, you know, if you are in the class of 2022 and you used up your eligibility in four years, you have another additional year. Now some athletes had already like entered the portal with the anticipation that they would be grandfathered in. And so those athletes who already were in the portal who now have an additional year of eligibility, those players can move around but there isn't like this brand new portal period where all these people that you didn't anticipate like that craziness isn't happening. Now there are teams who are making moves and adding players to their roster. Texas Tech, they got Darren Williams back. He played great basketball for them from 23 to 25. He went to NC State last year, thought it was his final year. He's now back to Texas Tech and Zaga has made some additions to the roster. They got a guard out of Dayton who should definitely spread their floor a little bit more. So it's just some teams are, are adding and you know, to their rosters and it'll be interesting to see how kind of these preseason rankings kind of fall and whatever, what, what occurs from all of that on this movement. Jamarcus Lawrence, he is the guy for Nebraska in terms of used his four years of eligibility, will monitor the situation And Robin Washington of Husker Online has done a great job of monitoring that situation. Nebraska intentionally kept a roster spot open for J Law if, if this were to be the case. They're still figuring some things out. So no official news on that yet, but something to keep an eye on as that was made official. Now obviously, like, here's my biggest problem with like the Safe College Sports act, right? I'm done talking about it. Don't care anymore. It's just, it's dumb. And now all these provisions are being added. Like they, they went ahead and they're like, well, you know, if you're transferring power five to power five, you have a five year wait period that way that like we don't have these super leagues and you know we're going to cap the amount of teams you can have at 19, which that means that Big Ten can add one team, the SEC could add three teams, but then now there's like gonna be. They're trying to add an amendment that in within the first 100 day, 80 days of this thing being side signed, you can go from Power 5 to Power 5 and not be pun. I'm just saying, all right? I'm just, I'm sick and tired of this stuff. But my biggest gripe with it is that like the people who, who just ruined this entire thing and who just have no grasp on how to properly do business or lead anything and the people who have been the root cause of all these problems, like they are the ones who are being given more power through the same college sports act. Like the people who screwed the pooch anyway are the ones who are being given like the ability to make more decisions, which I think is bonkers to me. And you know, this is one where it's like, it actually probably would have been way more clearer and concise and efficient and maybe even more entertaining in a way. If the NCAA said, hey, five for five and we're just gonna grandfather in anybody anyway because you have to be fool. The NCAA has to be foolish to have thought that they were going to be able to tell two, 20, 22 athletes, no, you cannot be grandfathered in and nobody wasn't going to sit around and do anything. Like, they had to have known that, hey, somebody was going to sue, there was gonna be some sort of lawsuit, they were gonna go to a lawyer and shocker, the lawyer granted an injunction against the ncaa. I know that the NCAA claims that hey, we've won more cases than what we're given credit for. We just lose the big ones like, okay, how does that work for college football coaches as a quick cross comparison? Hey, I'm, I'm an eight win coach and I win eight games and I got a winning record, but I don't beat the four best teams in my conference. I always lose to them. I just lose the big games. We fire coaches like that. That guy got fired here at Nebraska, you know, like the ncaa. It's just so funny to me. It's just comical to me. They're like, well, you know, we don't, we lo. We win more than you think. But the big ones that actually have pretty massive impacts, we lose those. Don't worry about that. It's just, you know, it is what it is. And, and I just think it. Shocker. The NCAA decided not to make this decision, which probably would have been the more efficient, clear and concise decision to just grandfather all these guys in. Just for what? For them to lose a case. And now we have some form of chaos, which at this point is a consistent theme in college sports. Interesting article came across my CBS Sports app today. I love the CBS Sports app. It's a, it's a, actually a topic that Steve Sipple and I had a conversation about in terms of FCS teams and their ability to beat FBS teams. And you know, the, the rooted argument is essentially, look, FCS teams, their best players. Now if they're an all conference team or their player of the year in the FCS or whatever it might be in the past, those guys would continue to be on FCS teams. And you had some FCS teams and, and also like, you know, lower very like group of five, like very, very, very low level, right? FBS teams, like their best players, they would, you know, stay with the team, right? And they would develop with the team. You have an older team and, and sometimes you'd have those big upsets, right? You would have lower FBS teams like Appalachian State go ahead and defeat Michigan. You would have, you know, South Dakota skater, North Dakota skater, whomever it might be, you know, defeat a Power 5 program. That'd be a massive upset. And you see less and less of that now because those players who are great don't stay anymore. They go to different teams, they go to the Power 5. It's a great stat here from CBS who, who dives into this idea. Is this really true? Is there, you know, analytical statistical data that proves, hey, you know, FCS and group of five teams, it's never been harder for them to defeat power five teams. So let's go year by year in 2025 power five teams power four teams. How you know whatever power four teams went 60 and O against FCS opponents and 24 power four teams went 58. 0 against FCS teams. In 2023 power five teams went 52. 1 against FCS schools and in 2022 power five schools went 53. 1 against FCS games. So in the last four years, power four teams have only lost to FCS schools two times. From 2006 to 2021 power four schools lost 38 times on average. That's a little bit over two FCS teams beating power five teams per year. That average has now dropped to half every every every two years we have one FCS team that ends up beating an FBS team. Now let's go to Group of five, Group of five and six. So group of five teams versus FCS teams. The win percentage also much higher, right? Their win percentage over the last couple years is easily over 92%. Before that the win percentage was down 89. So they they dive into this to show you analytically, hey, it's harder for FCS teams and to win these games against Power four and Group of six teams. And so the title of the article is our FCS versus power 4 upsets extinct 5 potential shockers in 26 that could end the Drought so they're picking teams that could potentially beat Power 5 teams this season. Their number one pick is South Dakota State versus Northwestern. Their number two pick is Youngstown State at Kentucky. Another pick they have here is Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State and they have Austin P. Playing Vanderbilt. They have one more potential FCS to power four upset and their final potential FCS upset is number 10 North Dakota. Dang at Nebraska. Here's what they write. Husker fans won't need much reminding of the last time North Dakota came to Lincoln in 2022. The Fighting Hawks had Nebraska in a battle for three quarters before the Big Red escape escaped with a 38 to 17 win and just eight days later Scott Frost was fired. The program is in a much different place under Matt Rule and Nebraska still hasn't lost a game to an FCS opponent. But North Dakota has the pieces to make this a problem if it isn't. Careful Dual threat quarterback Jeremy Jerry Kaminsky and All American edge rusher Lance Rucker and Omaha native are back for a 25 team that nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State last season. They were just 42 seconds away from leaving Manhattan with a win. Might I add, Jerry Kaminsky was the quarterback who went to The Manning passing Academy and tore it all up and looked absolutely insane. And so very interesting to mention that North Dakota, according to cbs, could be a team that Nebraska loses to in their first three games season the ir. Like if that were to happen, dare I say it would be more embarrassing than Georgia Southern for Let me add a couple of reasons. You're not playing a power team in the non consulate. People give you a lot of crap for that. Now granted, North Dakota wasn't the game that you replaced with Tennessee. Bowling Green was the game that you replaced with Tennessee. So that's a little bit different. They replaced Tennessee with North Dakota. It would be a different story. But still, there's been a ton of conversation about why don't you play a power team in the non con. There's been shots taken at the Nebraska and Matt Rule for not playing a power team in the non con. You also would have Cole Swindell having to perform after this game if it were to be a loss. Additionally, you're coming off of an off season where we've deemed it the bad vibes offseason, where a lot of people are way more skeptical of you now and your team and your coaching and your ability to win football games than they ever have been. Where if they were to lose to North Dakota, I, I can't imagine what the reaction would be. I, I can't imagine what the attitude around the program would be. I, I really, it has not crossed my mind of just how much of a colatical, you know, just how much of a catastrophe it would be if they were to lose that game to an FCS opponent. If they were the first team in three, three years to lose to an FCS opponent as an FBS team. That's, that's, that'd be crazy. That'd be crazy. That'd be insane. It'd be. Kenneth goes. It would be bad if they dropped any of the first three games. I'd say, though, because they have the concert after this one. This is by far the worst one I feel. You know what? If Nebraska were to lose to North Dakota, the person I would feel the worst for, probably worse than any Nebraska fan and worse than any of the people who had to deal with the outcry that would come if they lost that game. The person I would feel the worst for is Cole Swindell. That poor schmuck. You know, he's told, hey, Memorial Stadium, hey, 80,000 person, you know, venue, the biggest venue you've probably played in your entire career. They're gonna, it's gonna be packed. We've told people, wait for you. We're going to bring him down to the pits. It's going to be a great performance. Everyone's going to be ecstatic because they're coming off of a football win and they would love to do nothing more than celebrate that win with you. And then they lose that game. And that poor feller would have to perform in front of 10,000 people. It'd be tough. Vince goes hot seat. If they lose the North Dakota game. I mean, yeah, yeah, yeah. Absolutely. That'd be terrible. Be awful. Now, here's, here's the thing. Do I think that Nebraska is going to lose to North Dakota? No, I do not, I do not think that'll happen. I don't think that this is something that you're going to have to worry about. Yes, again, all American FCS rusher. Yes. They got a quarterback who could end up maybe being drafted one day. We see, who knows? Nebraska's got all the advantages elsewhere. Like, like they're gonna, they're gonna be able to beat this North Dakota team. I'm not, I'm not worried about that slightest. I, I do wonder if, you know, CBS probably playing the click game, too. They know that Nebraska fans are gonna clip click on that thing and comment on that thing and retweet that thing and blow that thing up. So it's probably one of those. But I, I, I do enjoy, I do enjoy making the jokes of like, man, if that were to happen, that'd be, that'd be a fun little USC poll question. What would be the more embarrassing loss? North Dakota, week two, with a Cole Swindell concert to follow, or Georgia Southern against Scott Frost? It's probably Georgia Southern. Cause it was finally the straw that broke the Campbell's back that got Frost fired. That's probably your answer. But man, it would be, be tough. Be very, very tough. All right, let's go ahead, take a break. What to watch and dog of the day coming up next.
- [15:27]
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Granger knows. When you're a procurement manager for an office park, you're not managing one building. You're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Lights about to fail, filters ready to clog. H Vac on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind. Count on Grainger for quality products, easy reordering and 24. 7 support. Call 1-800-GRAINGER click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.