Modern Wisdom #1017 - Jonathan Anomaly: What Embryo Selection Means for Humanity
Date: November 8, 2025
Host: Chris Williamson
Guest: Jonathan Anomaly (Academic, Co-founder at Herasite)
Overview
This episode explores the ethical, scientific, and social implications of embryo selection—choosing which embryos to implant based on genetic profiles—in shaping humanity’s future. Chris Williamson and Jonathan Anomaly dive deep into the current state and near-future of polygenic embryo screening, its potential benefits, societal anxieties, and the controversies and dilemmas that surround it.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Embryo Selection vs. Gene Editing (00:12–02:56)
- Clarifying the Science: Many confuse embryo selection with gene editing. Anomaly emphasizes that the technology “doesn't alter genes; it lets parents select among their existing embryos based on the genetic profiles they already have.”
"People often, I suppose, confuse embryo selection with gene editing... But in fact, we're not tinkering with anything." — Anomaly [00:19]
- Normalcy of Selection: IVF already involves selecting embryos based on appearance (morphology) and genetic disorders; polygenic selection just adds more information.
- Romanticism & Resistance: Concerns stem from discomfort with “taking away the mystery of childbirth” and fears of stepping into eugenics.
2. Screening for Disease vs. Traits (03:58–05:58)
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Public Attitudes: Far more are comfortable with screening for disease (70–75% in the US) than for intelligence (40%), reflecting a post-WWII taboo around cognitive and psychiatric traits.
"There's this mysterious taboo around mental traits. I don’t think it’s deserved." — Anomaly [04:22]
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Cultural Contrast: In parts of Asia, selecting for intelligence is not taboo, showing how much attitudes are culturally determined.
3. The Slippery Slope: Eugenics, Equity & Autonomy (06:46–14:29)
- Liberal Eugenics: Anomaly distinguishes between government coercion and individual choice, advocating for "liberal eugenics," where parents—not the state—choose.
- Inequality Concerns: Fears that the rich will further the genetic gap; Anomaly notes insurance or government coverage could equalize access but raises issues of forcing dissenters to subsidize technologies they oppose.
- Debates Over Autonomy:
“Autonomy is on both sides… your autonomy to choose, but also your autonomy to choose what you subsidize.” — Williamson [13:29]
4. Stigma, Taboos & Genetics Discourse (14:29–18:03)
- Genetics & Determinism: Discusses the enduring discomfort in public debate, with many left-leaning scholars quietly accepting the science but hesitant to discuss innate differences openly.
- Optimistic Framing: Anomaly suggests that understanding genetic influence “frees people to focus on what can be changed and what can be accepted.”
5. Moral Worth, Disability, and Selection (20:25–24:38)
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Valuing Persons: Neither guest sees health or cognitive ability as conferring greater moral worth; reducing disease isn’t a denial of personhood.
“Most people don't think that someone who is healthier is morally superior... but nevertheless want your own kids to have various advantages.” — Anomaly [20:54]
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Historical Context: Reviews the progress of IVF and embryo testing technology, noting how widespread access and better algorithms (ex: Herasite’s approach) will democratize selection.
6. Gatekeepers and Informed Choice (24:39–34:20)
- Access: New methods allow parents to bypass clinics or skeptical doctors, obtaining genetic info directly.
- Ethics: Modern medical ethics prioritize informed patient choice; restricting embryo selection (esp. against certain diseases) can be paternalistic.
7. Technical Claims & Validation (37:28–53:45)
- Validating Polygenic Scores: Anomaly stresses the need for solid science and for companies to transparently publish how they train and validate their risk scores.
- Predictive Power & Ancestry: Polygenic scores are most accurate for populations they were trained on; non-European groups need better data representation.
- Limitations and Spread: For example, with 10 embryos, one could see a 15-point IQ spread; selecting can meaningfully impact disease risk and traits.
8. Buyer’s Remorse & Parental Responsibility (53:45–61:36)
- Guilt & Regret: New forms of remorse may arise if parents select “wrong” or feel responsible for their children’s disadvantages.
"The more you take control of any domain of life... the more culpable you are." — Anomaly [59:14]
- Moral Dilemmas: Moral weight accompanies both action and inaction (choosing not to minimize risk when one could).
9. Norms, Laws, and Red Lines (61:36–65:30, 109:10–110:24)
- Regulating Selection: Anomaly favors social norms and company policies (e.g., not selecting for sadism/psychopathy) over rigid legal bans—except basic transparency and validation.
- Technical Red Flags: Strong support for transparency, rigorous validation, and standards on what constitutes an “offerable” trait by companies.
10. Complexities in Trait Selection (65:30–76:16)
- Spectral Traits: Many attributes (psychopathy, intelligence) are spectra, not binaries; selection risks and potential benefits are nuanced.
- Positive Pleiotropy: Selecting against one disease often reduces risk for others due to genetic correlations (“P factor” for psychiatric illness, “G factor” for intelligence).
“The huge majority of pleiotropy is positive... This is really fucking cool.” — Anomaly [72:14]
11. Personhood, Non-Identity Problem & Ethics (76:16–86:28)
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Philosophical Challenge: Selection means different people come into existence, raising tricky questions around moral responsibility and "wrongful life."
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Replacement, Not Prevention:
"You're essentially replacing a baby who would have had fetal alcohol syndrome with another baby who doesn’t." — Williamson, quoting Scott Alexander [83:30]
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Is It Better to Be Born?: Most disabilities don't make life not worth living, but it's often preferable, pre-implantation, to avoid severe disease.
12. Impact on Ideas of Luck, Merit, and Parenting (88:52–98:07)
- Changing Merit & Luck: Genetic information demystifies luck and talent; the world is less “blank slate” than many would prefer.
- Genetics and Parenting: Behavioral genetics may eclipse parenting books in influence; success is more tied to choosing the right mate than parenting methods.
13. Societal Adoption, Cultural Lag, and the Arms Race (98:50–116:01)
- Cultural Resistance: Europe, due to WWII taboos, lags behind the US, China, Israel, and some Asian/Middle Eastern countries in allowing and embracing such technologies.
- Inevitability & Global Competition:
"China, Israel... have already announced that they want to subsidize IVF... That'll create more pressure for people to pressure the government to have polygenic traits subsidized, including potentially intelligence." — Anomaly [117:02]
- Open Source Future: The technology and data will become increasingly accessible, so inequalities should diminish over time.
14. Transparency, Ethics, and Future Safeguards (109:10–110:24; 113:04–113:17)
- What Should Be Required?
- Publicly available validation studies of polygenic scores
- Transparency in methodology—how good is the science?
- Social, not just legal, guardrails on what kinds of trait selection are acceptable
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On Taboos in Genetics:
“Both the winners and the losers of World War II basically took on a set of taboos about genetic explanations. Especially for the trait that makes us most human, which is our brain intelligence.” — Anomaly [04:22]
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On Autonomy and Regulation:
"There's a trade-off between governments getting more involved and equality... I tend to worry less about equality and more about individual choice and information." — Anomaly [08:13]
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On Predictive Power & Validation:
“For any company that's offering polygenic scores... the first question you should ask is, how did you get your polygenic scores, how do you validate these scores, how do you know they work?" — Anomaly [37:28]
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On Buyer’s Remorse:
"The more you take control of any domain of life... the more culpable you are." — Anomaly [59:14]
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On the Future of Parenting:
“Every parenting book in history could be replaced with one behavioral genetics book.” — Plomin/Jeffrey Miller via Williamson [97:28]
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On International Adoption:
"In the Middle east, governments already cover... a lot of genetic testing... the more that's going to put pressure on Europe to really reverse course." — Anomaly [114:58]
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On Technology and Social Norms:
"Technology is a tool. You can use nuclear technology to build amazing forms of power... or you can use it for destruction. It depends on the norms, not the technology.” — Anomaly [61:36]
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Timestamp | Segment | |------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:12 | Embryo selection vs gene editing explained | | 03:58 | Screening for disease vs intelligence | | 06:46 | Eugenics: slippery slope and government’s role | | 14:29 | Public discomfort and taboo around genetics | | 24:38 | How Herasite’s process democratizes info for parents | | 37:28 | Validating and trusting polygenic scores | | 53:45 | Buyer’s remorse, guilt, and new family dynamics | | 61:36 | Laws, red lines, and social norms | | 65:30 | Should we ever select for/against dark triad traits? | | 72:14 | Pleiotropy: genetic trade-offs and positive correlations | | 76:16 | Personhood, the 'non-identity problem', and moral puzzles | | 88:52 | Genetics, merit, luck, and understanding others | | 98:50 | Partner choice, satisficing, and pressure on decision-making | | 114:58 | Comparative international policies and future trends | | 117:02 | Predictions: global adoption, arms race, and ethical schisms |
Tone and Language
- The episode features candid, nuanced, and at times provocative debate. Both lean into honest, sometimes uncomfortable questions—often with humor and pragmatic candor.
- Notably, both are careful to differentiate scientific fact from ethical preference and signal the importance of open, rational discourse.
Additional Resources
- More info and validation papers: herasite.com
- References to Scott Alexander’s blog and behavioral geneticists Robert Plomin and Paige Harden for further reading.
Summary
This episode offers a comprehensive, intellectually honest look into the present and future of embryo selection. Chris and Jonathan unpack the scientific basis, dispel misconceptions, and consider daunting ethical quandaries—including stigma, inequality, the meaning of personhood, and the limits of regulation. Despite the profound implications, the conversation is measured, often optimistic, and insists on individual autonomy, transparency, and social norms as the best guardians for this rapidly advancing technology.